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ORDER NUMBER: 4263
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS:
Jack C. Kiefer, John M. Clayton, Benedykt Dziegielewski, and James Henderson
OBJECTIVES
The primary purpose of this research study was to increase the adaptive capacity of water
utilities in planning for and responding to pressures that may result from climate change. Unlike
the majority of previous studies regarding the potential effects of climate change, this study
concentrates on the demand for water. The primary objectives of this study were to:
Illustrations and examples of useful ideas and techniques play an important role in all
aspects of this study and take full advantage of water use data provided by several water utilities.
BACKGROUND
U.S. cities and municipalities regard a reliable supply of water as an essential service to
protect public health and safety and support economic growth and community well being. The
water utility industry accommodates this need through securing and treating ample water supply
resources for on demand delivery of high quality water in sufficient quantities and at suitable
pressure for consumption and fire protection.
Understanding the consequences of changes in climate is particularly important for the
water supply sector. Climate change has been identified as a key future trend and uncertainty
affecting water demand, supply, and resource competition in the United States (Dziegielewski
APPROACH
The study began with a reconnaissance-level evaluation of regional trends in water use in
the United States, inclusive of demands associated with non-urban sectors. The purpose of the
regional analysis was to highlight broad-scale water use patterns and to identify water demand
pressures that may intensify under future climate. Using data on county- and state-level water
withdrawals collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other secondary information, several
water use metrics were evaluated within the context of indicators of climate vulnerability
including regional trends in population, the presence and allocation of withdrawals among
potentially competing water uses (such as urban demands, agriculture, power production, and
ecological flows), rates and levels of water withdrawals for specific purposes, the degree of
reliance on surface water supply sources, and estimated time trends in metrics calculated for
these indicators of vulnerability.
The regional analysis served as an important backdrop for evaluating prospective climate
impacts on the demands of municipal (or urban) water systems, which was the primary focus of
the study. With regard to municipal water demands, the research approach set out with a
foundational assessment of the importance of climate in shaping water use patterns, which
utilizes a substantial amount of data provided by participating water utilities for the illustration of
A methodological framework for conducting the case studies was developed, which
includes processes for selecting and processing downscaled climate projection scenarios from
available General Circulation Models (GCMs), translating these projections into implied future
values of weather, and substituting these scenarios into water demand models to predict potential
demand-side impacts (Figure ES.2).
In order to meet the requirements of the water demand models, this study employed
downscaled model projections from the Bias-Corrected Constructed Analog (BCCA) section of
the World Climate Research Programmes (WCRPs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset (CMIP3 dataset) (Maurer et al., 2010). The BCCA dataset
contains results from a subset of 9 of the models in the CMIP3 archive. The BCCA dataset has
climate change projections for time slices surrounding the following years: 2055 and 2090. Each
time slice in this dataset is a 20-year time period with the identified year in the middle of the
The case studies use a scenario approach to incorporating climate change projections into
water demand modeling. The scenarios are designed to identify a wide range of model outputs in
terms of temperature and precipitation. The range of outputs is conceptualized based on four
quadrants of temperature and precipitation pairings, which within a scatterplot identify four
general projection conditions relative to the (conceptual) mean of all available projections for a
given time period (Figure ES.3). The scenarios are labeled Hotter/Drier, Hotter/Wetter,
RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS
The study resulted in several principal conclusions spanning across several topics that are
important to evaluating the potential effects of climate change on water demand. The main
conclusions can be summarized as follows:
1. Weather sensitive demands are prevalent and will be affected by climate change.
Weather-sensitive water demands exist in virtually all places in the country and account
for a substantial portion of total municipal water demands in most regions and a majority of total
demand in some areas and times of the year. Municipal water demands are sensitive to regional
differences in climate and are responsive to variability in actual weather conditions.
In hot and dry climates of the West average customer demands can be 50 to 80 percent
higher than in the humid East. Climate is responsible for explaining a considerable amount, if not
a majority, of intra-annual variability (i.e., average month-to-month changes) in demands in most
water utility service areas. After accounting for long-term trend, variability of weather conditions
within a given climate accounts for most of the inter-annual differences in demand (e.g.,
differences in annual demand between consecutive years). Fundamental differences in climate
across geographical regions explain large differences in average rates of water consumption, as
well as differences in the pattern of monthly and daily demands within the calendar year.
With regard to water use modeling, an over-riding conclusion is that only certain types of
models, specifically those that contain and relate weather and climate indicators to water use, are
1
The Hotter/Drier, Cooler/Wetter, Cooler/Drier, and Hotter/Wetter scenarios are selected relative to the
Middle/Moderate scenario (and named accordingly), without reference to current or historical climate.
For example, in the context of this study, a cooler climate projection scenario may in fact be hotter than
the current climate.
The identification and processing of suitable climate projections is the bridge between
modeling the response of water use to climate and weather and the use of water demand models
With regard to case study locations, substantial warming is predicted for the case study
locations, with double-digit increases (in degrees Fahrenheit) under some scenarios by 2090.
Projected changes in precipitation show less agreement among climate models than projected
changes in temperature. However, climate projections for western case studies (Southern Nevada
Water Authority, San Diego County Water Authority, and Colorado Springs Utilities) more
consistently indicate less annual precipitation. Among the six regions, only MWRA is projected
to receive more precipitation annually than observed historically.
On an average annual basis, an increase in water demand is projected for all case study
utilities and across all climate projection scenarios evaluated for 2055 and 2090 climate
projection years (Table ES.1). Among the case studies, the estimated relative increases in
demand are far and away the greatest for Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU), where the predicted
climate-induced increases in demand range from a maximum of 23.2 percent under mean 2055
climate to a maximum of 45.0 percent under mean 2090 climate. The estimated degree of
potential increases in demand is also relatively high for San Diego County (SDCWA), where the
maximum relative projected increases in demand are 12.7 percent under mean 2055 climate and
23.7 percent under mean 2090 climate.
There are similarities among the results for Durham Region (Ontario, Canada),
Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA), and Tampa Bay Water (TBW). Namely,
estimated increases in demand are relatively small on an annual basis when compared with the
results for the other western utilities, and the range of estimated changes in demand across
scenarios is considerably smaller, as well. Only moderate impacts ranging from a maximum
change of about +5% for 2055 climate and a maximum change of about +10% for 2090 climate
are estimated for these three water utilities which are located in the more humid East.
The range of projected impacts for Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) is in the
middle of the six cases. Projected impacts for SNWA range from a maximum projected increase
in demand of 9.4 percent under mean 2055 climate to a maximum projected increase of 15.5
percent under mean 2090 climate.
In almost every case, the maximum estimated demand impacts for 2090 climate are
nearly double the maximum impacts estimated for 2055 climate. The range of impacts is also
wider for the 2090 projection year. Furthermore, estimated impacts vary seasonally and are most
pronounced for the 2090 Hotter/Drier scenario (see Figure ES.5). Seasonal estimates of demand
impacts generally point to a lengthening of the watering season (e.g., spring-like conditions
starting sooner and summer-like conditions lasting longer into the fall).
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Durham
CSU MWRA SNWA SDCWA TBW
Region
Winter 25.6% 0.6% -0.3% 27.2% 23.7% 8.0%
Spring 54.3% 9.5% 11.1% 14.6% 24.8% 10.9%
Summer 52.4% 17.8% 16.4% 11.2% 24.6% 15.3%
Fall 35.3% 3.5% 6.8% 17.1% 20.8% 5.6%
Figure ES.5: Estimated Seasonal Demand Impacts by Case Study Region under 2090
Hotter/Drier Scenario
Estimated increases in demand among some case studies would be considered equivalent
to effects of significant growth in the number of accounts or population under historical normal
climate conditions. Implied weather variability within some climate projection scenarios
produces estimates of demand that would be unlikely to be experienced under historical weather.
This relates also to hot and dry weather spells and the potential for weather anomalies such as
drought. For some cases, the largest absolute average projected change (decrease) in
precipitation is paired with relatively large projected changes in seasonal demand For CSU,
TBW, and SDCWA, the greatest projected decreases in precipitation generally occur during the
seasons when these locations historically receive the most rainfall (i.e., summer in CSU and
TBW and winter in SDCWA). For TBW, the 2090 Hotter/Drier projection scenario reflects a
dramatic decrease in total precipitation, which would likely alter water use patterns to an extent
that cannot be adequately captured by current water demand models.
The case studies and regional assessments point to several possibilities for adapting to the
consequences of climate-induced changes in water demand. Should they continue, some recent
trends in patterns of water use, such as declining rates of per capita domestic use and shifts in
allocations of water among competing uses, may in some regions counteract some of the
additional pressures from warmer temperatures, less precipitation, and urban growth.
Denser urban land development could counteract projected increases in water use by
reducing irrigated landscape areas and lowering the response of water use to climatic conditions.
Furthermore, water pricing strategies could counteract projected increases in water use, either as
a result of more supply scarcity and higher costs of service, or through rate structures designed
exclusively for the purposes of providing incentives, or both.
Increases in water efficiency due to passive and active replacement of inefficient water
fixtures, stemming from current and potential future plumbing standards and an evolving market
for water-efficient products, generally provide a realistic alternative supply (or buffer) for
climate-induced increases in water use.
Conceptually, this represents a tradeoff between demands, where lower indoor or
domestic demands permit more flexibility for supplying higher weather-sensitive demands. For
some of the case study utilities, projected increases in annual average water use are within a
range that could be mitigated by increases in water efficiency. However, greater efficiency
cannot be considered a panacea for some case studies and scenarios, such as for Colorado
Springs, where the sheer magnitude of projected impacts of some scenarios is seemingly out of
reach of efficiency potential alone. Furthermore, the degree to which any given community can
rely on reductions in indoor (or weather-insensitive) uses to offset increases in weather-sensitive
demands may also depend on local and regional water management policies that differentiate and
account for consumptive and non-consumptive uses.
It is possible that impacts of a warmer climate (and possibly also a drier climate in some
regions) could translate into an increased awareness of society of the importance of water in
peoples daily lives, particularly if there is a greater likelihood of water shortages and water
curtailments. Changes in water-using behaviors can extend beyond hardware-driven changes in
the efficiency of water use, and there is evidence that such behavioral change or evolving norms
with respect to water use are already occurring in some areas that are naturally water-short
because of current climate and hydrologic conditions.
Finally, projected increases in demand relative to available water supplies may increase
the economic value of water, which may make investments in alternative supplies and system
rehabilitation more economically justified to both water consumers and water providers.
Accommodation of higher demands could also provide opportunities to increase the economic
benefits associated with water. Furthermore, in some places, climate induced increases in
demand could be met with greater regional supply yields. Ultimately, water utility management
of these and other potential effects of climate change, will involve a balance of local, as well as
perhaps more regional, considerations including the willingness of water customers to pay for
new or more reliable water supplies and the cost of accommodating new or altered water
demands.
Based on the results of the case studies, a major conclusion of this study is that changes
in climate are predicted to vary both in magnitude and seasonally across the regions of the
United States, and the impacts of these changes on water demand will vary because of different
geographical sensitivities of demand to climate and weather. The impacts on demand could be
relatively large for some locations and relatively moderate or even minor for others. The point is
that there is no way of discerning potential impacts without undertaking the types of analyses
demonstrated in the case studies. Therefore, a chief recommendation is that water utilities spend
more time resources studying and modeling climate- and weather-induced water demand
patterns. By applying some of the analytical techniques demonstrated in this study, it is hopeful
that water utilities will gain a more thorough understanding of the importance of climate in
shaping water demands relative to longer-term socioeconomic factors and the role that actual
weather plays in influencing shorter-term demand variability. The insights that are gained about
demand may reveal important lessons and implications for both water supply operations and
planning, and not just in the context of assessing climate change.
This study was intentionally designed to be demand-centric in order to help fill a
knowledge gap relative to the knowledge that has been accumulated about the potential effects of
climate change on water supplies. Ultimately, however, for the purposes of understanding the
possible consequences of climate change and related adaptation opportunities, neither water
demand nor supply can be evaluated in isolation. Additional research is needed to develop better
and more integrated analytical frameworks for addressing more directly water supply reliability,
which as a concept captures the notion of demand-supply balance. Integrated analytical
approaches that are capable of jointly simulating demand and supply should be developed or
extended to accommodate evaluation of climate change scenarios. Such methods would enhance
the understanding of risks relative to reference conditions without a change in climate.
In concert with more emphasis on water supply reliability and integrated demand and
supply modeling, it is recommended that more research be undertaken to evaluate climate
scenarios with respect to the possible duration and frequency of future droughts. The effects of
hot and dry spells on demand were only touched upon in this study, as opposed to accumulated
precipitation deficits over longer periods of time which define drought. The downscaled daily
climate data processed during this study suggested the possibility of protracted periods of
relatively high temperatures and low precipitation that far exceeded the length of hot and dry
spells identified in available historical weather record. The predicted impacts on demands would
be considered extreme relative to what would be predicted under historical spells. The
magnification of dry and hot spells could be indicative of the likelihood of more severe and
longer-lasting droughts occurring under future climate. There is currently not a great level of
comfort in using daily climate projection data to characterize the persistence of hot and dry
periods and even less confidence for discerning seasonal, annual or multi-year droughts. Once
there is, however, this will enhance the ability to estimate unrestricted, drought-like demands and
corresponding water supplies during potential future droughts, and thereby improve the quality
of assessments of water supply reliability under future climate.
Future research should also leverage ongoing research on residential and nonresidential
end uses of water, as well as the emerging wealth of information available from advanced
metering infrastructure (AMI) technology. Finer scale measurements of water use at an end use
level could support the analysis and illustration of specific behavioral and technological origins