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Table 1. Selection of the Time Periods for the Input Data information concerning mapping and Bezier surfaces is
presented in section 4. In this work, up to 1 hour in
Phase Year Days
advance forecast of the 10 min TEC maps over Europe
Train 2003 1 15 Nov during November 2003 space weather events using the
Test 2003 30 Nov to 11 Dec METU-NN and Bezier surfaces has been introduced and
Validation 2003 16 29 Nov the results are presented.
[9] Neural network models are designed and trained
with significant inputs. In our approach, the basic inputs
for the model are the past TEC values and the temporal
[6] Neural network based approaches are promising inputs as explained in section 3. No other parameters are
in modeling of ionospheric processes [Tulunay, 1991; used in inputs. This is the first time METU-NN-based
Williscroft and Poole, 1996; Altinay et al., 1997; Cander TEC forecast mappings are introduced, and the forecast
et al., 1998; Wintoft and Cander, 1999; Francis et al., results are promising for system operators. This paper
2000; Y. Tulunay et al., 2001, 2004b; Vernon and leads to availability of TEC forecast mapping results for
Cander, 2002; E. Tulunay et al., 2004; Radicella making comparisons in future studies. The neural net-
and Tulunay, 2004; Stamper et al., 2004; McKinnell work architecture of METU-NN is modular. Because of
and Poole, 2004]. Space weather centers provide fore- modularity, the model and its input parameters are open
casts of solar and geophysical parameters. As an exam- to new developments depending on future requirements.
ple, the Lund Space Weather Center uses artificial The subblocks in the METU-NN have one input layer,
intelligence (AI) in its methods to forecast Kp parameters one hidden layer with the neurons, and one output layer.
[Boberg et al., 2000]. The neural network is trained and is used to forecast the
[7] In general, mapping of an ionospheric quantity TEC values for the grids located over Europe. Using
such as foF2 or TEC means that a surface fitting is these forecast TEC values of the grids, TEC maps as
performed on the basis of known values of that quantity Bezier surfaces are presented.
on specified points of a surface. Mapping carried out by [10] The main contributions of this work are organiza-
using a certain method extrapolates the known discrete tion of data for teaching complex processes, neural
values continuously to the whole surface. There are network based modeling of a highly complex nonlinear
various widely used ionospheric mapping techniques process such as TEC mapping, and general demonstra-
using both the ionosonde-derived TEC and the GPS- tion of learning capability by calculating cross correla-
TEC [Samardjiev et al., 1993; Cander, 2003; Jakowski et tions and general demonstration of reaching a proper
al., 2004; Stamper et al., 2004; Zolesi et al., 2004]. operating point by calculating errors. The METU-NN
Samardjiev et al. [1993] used contouring techniques for model can also be used in filling data gaps.
ionospheric mapping including Kriging technique, which
performs best when compared with inverse distance
squared technique and minimum curvature technique. 2. Preparation of Data for the METU-NN
Cander [2003] discussed the findings of the European [11] Ten minute vertical TEC data have been evaluated
Union Action COST 251 and plans for the COST 271 on from the GPS measurements that took place between 1
TEC forecast and mapping. Jakowski et al. [2004] and November and 11 December 2003 over Europe centered
Stamper et al. [2004] presented near-real-time and real- over Italy on the basis of slant TEC data (G. Ciraolo,
time TEC mappings over Europe. Zolesi et al. [2004] private communication, 2004). The geographic coverage
presented a method based on a regional model of the of the TEC data is between latitudes of (35.5N, 47.5N)
standard vertical incidence monthly median ionospheric and longitudes of (5.5E, 19.5E). The data belong to the
characteristics, which was updated with real-time iono- 104 grid locations spaced every 2 longitude by 1
spheric observations for mapping of ionospheric condi- latitude intervals in space. These data consisted of the
tions over Europe. It is suitable to be used in real time for training, test, and validation subsets during the develop-
operational applications. These studies did not report ment and operation modes of the modeling process.
mapping based on forecasts. [12] Table 1 illustrates how the data were assigned to
[8] In this work, a method was developed to perform be employed by the METU-NN model during the train-
neural network based TEC forecast mapping for the ing, test, and validation modes. In particular, the
first time to the best knowledge of the authors. The period of major space weather events was chosen for
Middle East Technical University Neural Network the validation mode. That is, the solar active region,
(METU-NN) model [Y. Tulunay et al., 2004a] was used the sunspot group 484 (or near the sunspot group 501),
to produce TEC forecast maps over Europe using Bezier was the seat of a major coronal mass ejection (CME) on
surfaces which are being used for surface generation in 18 November 2003. This CME triggered a geomagnetic
computer graphics [Rogers and Adams, 1990]. Brief storm on 20 November 2003 at around 0800 UT.
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RS4016 TULUNAY ET AL.: FORECAST TEC MAPS RS4016
This storm was qualified by the 3 hour planetary mag- terminated until the gradient of the error becomes near
netic index of Kp as 8+. For more information, see zero again. Thus the model parameters are optimized and
News and information about the Sun-Earth Environ- are fixed at the end of the construction procedure. In the
ment, http://www.spaceweather.com, and National operation mode, Bezier surface maps of the validation
Geophysical Data Center, ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/ data are used for calculating the errors, point by point, to
GEOMAGNETIC_DATA/INDICES/KP_AP/. However, measure the performance of the model.
in principle, all the data subsets were chosen from [15] The value of the TEC at the time instant k is
periods of similar Zurich sunspot numbers. The models designated by f(k). The output is f(k + 10) in 10 min in
contain intrinsic information about the solar activity. advance forecasts and f(k + 60) in 60 min in advance
forecasts. It is the value of the TEC to be observed up to
1 hour later than the present time for this work. There
3. Construction of the Neural are 419 inputs fed into the METU-NN model. Three of
the inputs are the temporal inputs, i.e., dnd, Cm, and Sm.
NetworkBased Model The rest of the input parameters are the inputs related
[13] The construction work of the neural network to the history of the TEC values for the grids over
based model is carried out in the development mode. It is Europe, i.e., 104 f(k) values, 104 D1(k) values, 104
composed of a training phase or learning phase and a D2(k) values, and 104 RD(k) values. Table 2 presents
test phase [Y. Tulunay et al., 2004a]. Training and test the input parameters employed for present values of the
phases are best performed with independent but statisti- TEC for the grids,
cally similar data sets. The METU-NN model, similar to f k TEC k ; 1
neural network modeling in general, employs a large
amount of data and considerable computing time. It is first differences,
natural that the nonlinear inherent processes are to be
learned by the model during the learning phase as fast as D1 k f k f k h; 2
possible. The Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation
algorithm is chosen to be the most convenient one during
second differences,
the training and development phases for this work. The
Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is an approximation to D2 k D1 k D1 k h; 3
Newtons method [Hagan and Menhaj, 1994; Haykin,
1999]. Instead of the basic back-propagation algorithm, relative differences,
the Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation algorithm
RDk D1 k =f k ; 4
using the approximation to Newtons method is faster
in terms of computation time and is more accurate near serial date number difference, dnd, where dnd is present
an error minimum. The Newtons method modification date number minus the first date number of the data of
to the steepest descent algorithm and random initializa- interest,
tions of the model parameters provide the model param-
eters to reach near-global optimum values in the training. dnd k dnk dn1; 5
[14] As the training advances, the training error starts
cosine component of the minute, m, of the day,
to decrease, and it eventually goes to zero. Zero error
corresponds to a memorization state. Memorization
means the loss of the generalization capability of the Cm cos2pm=1440; 6
neural network. The METU-NN model parameters are
recorded when the gradient of the error in the validation
phase of the development procedure becomes near zero.
To prevent memorization, the training is halted immedi-
ately. Also, independent validation data are used. Errors Table 2. Input Parameters of the METU-NN Blocks
are then calculated again. The decrease in the validation
Input Parameters Notation
error is noted. Training is restarted, and the training cycle
is repeated. When the gradient of the error in the Present values of the TEC for the grids TEC(k)
validation phase becomes near zero and if the error is First differences for the grids D1(k)
then an increasing sequence, a stop training signal is Second difference for the grid D2(k)
Relative difference for the grid RD(k)
produced, and with this, training is terminated. Thus Serial date number difference dnd(k)
getting stuck in local minima is avoided. The model is Cosine component of the minute of the day Cm
then ready for its actual use in the operation mode for Sine component of the minute of the day Sm
forecasting of the TEC. Otherwise the training is not
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RS4016 TULUNAY ET AL.: FORECAST TEC MAPS RS4016
be the ones with one hidden layer. Six neurons are used
in the hidden layer of the modules.
number difference (number 1); and the present trigono- TEC u; w Bi1;j1 :Jn;i u:Km;j w; 8
i0 j0
metric components (number 2) of minute of the day.
Thus, for each module, there are 214 inputs. When where
common inputs of the modules are not counted, the 0 1
overall number of inputs for the METU-NN model is n
419. Hidden neurons correspond to state-like variables of Jn;i u @ Aui 1 uni 9
the system of interest. During training, the state-like i
variables of all of the METU-NN modules are deter-
mined for each grid. The METU-NN model has 104 0 1
m
outputs corresponding to 104 modules. The output of B C j
each module is the forecast value of TEC for the grid of Km;j w B C mj
@ j Aw 1 w ; 10
interest. For the modules, among the various neural
network structures, the best configurations are found to
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Figure 2a. Observed (dots) and 10 min ahead forecast Figure 3a. Observed (dots) and 1 hour ahead forecast
(solid line) TEC during 16 29 November 2003 for the (solid line) TEC during 16 29 November 2003 for the
single grid point (13.5E, 41.5N). single grid point (13.5E, 41.5N).
Figure 2b. Observed (dots) and 10 min ahead forecast Figure 3b. Observed (dots) and 1 hour ahead forecast
(solid line) TEC during 19 21 November 2003 for the (solid line) TEC during 19 21 November 2003 for the
single grid point (13.5E, 41.5N). single grid point (13.5E, 41.5N).
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RS4016 TULUNAY ET AL.: FORECAST TEC MAPS RS4016
Figure 4. Observed and 1 hour ahead forecast TEC map examples during 20 November 2003.
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RS4016 TULUNAY ET AL.: FORECAST TEC MAPS RS4016
Figure 5c. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line Figure 6a. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line
(solid line) for the 10 min ahead forecast mapping and (solid line) for the 1 hour ahead forecast mapping and
observed TEC values for the single grid point (13.5E, observed TEC values for all grid points for the validation
41.5N) for the validation time 1629 November 2003. time 16 29 November 2003.
Figure 5d. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line Figure 6b. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line
(solid line) for the 10 min ahead forecast mapping and (solid line) for the 1 hour ahead forecast mapping and
observed TEC values for the single grid point (15.5E, observed TEC values for the single grid point (11.5E,
44.5N) for the validation time 1629 November 2003. 38.5N) for the validation time 16 29 November 2003.
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RS4016 TULUNAY ET AL.: FORECAST TEC MAPS RS4016
Figure 6c. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line Figure 7a. Scatter diagram (dots) with best fit line
(solid line) for the 1 hour ahead forecast mapping and (solid line) for the 10 min ahead forecast mapping and
observed TEC values for the single grid point (13.5E, observed TEC values for all grid points for the day 20
41.5N) for the validation time 1629 November 2003. November 2003.
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Table 3. Error Table for 10 m in Advance Forecasts for the Table 5. Error Table for 1 Hour in Advance Forecasts for the
Validation Time Period (16 29 November 2003) Validation Time Period 16 29 November 2003
11.5E, 13.5E, 15.5E, Overall 11.5E, 13.5E, 15.5E, Overall
Location 38.5N 41.5N 44.5N TEC Map Location 38.5N 41.5N 44.5N TEC Map
Root-mean-square error, TECU 0.8497 0.7499 0.7616 1.0147 Root-mean-square error, TECU 2.1556 2.0501 2.1444 2.2969
Absolute error, TECU 0.6050 0.5386 0.5582 0.7087 Absolute error, TECU 1.5785 1.4846 1.5168 1.6537
Normalized error 0.0602 0.0602 0.0676 0.0740 Normalized error 0.1429 0.1522 0.1630 0.1563
Cross-correlation coefficient 0.9957 0.9963 0.9959 0.9924 Cross-correlation coefficient 0.9775 0.9746 0.9696 0.9699
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Table 6. Error Table for 1 Hour in Advance Forecasts for the Rogers, D. F., and J. A. Adams (1990), Mathematical Elements
Day 20 November 2003 for Computer Graphics, 2nd ed., pp. 379 477, McGraw-
Hill, New York.
11.5E, 13.5E, 15.5E, Overall
Samardjiev, T., P. A. Bradley, L. R. Cander, and M. I. Dick
Location 38.5N 41.5N 44.5N TEC Map
(1993), Ionospheric mapping by computer contouring tech-
Root-mean-square error, TECU 4.0663 4.3912 4.3397 4.4966 niques, Electron. Lett., 29(20), 1794 1795.
Absolute error, TECU 2.8948 3.2888 3.1537 3.2613 Stamper, R., et al. (2004), Nowcasting, forecasting and warning
Normalized error 0.1945 0.2732 0.2684 0.2998 for ionospheric propagation: Tools and methods, Ann. Geo-
Cross-correlation coefficient 0.9764 0.9694 0.9645 0.9640
phys., 47(2 3), 957 983.
Tulunay, E. (1991), Introduction to neural networks and their
authors, this is the first time that a neural network based application to process control, in Neural Networks Advances
mapping technique has been presented for forecast of the and Applications, edited by E. Gelenbe, pp. 241 273, Else-
TEC values over Europe. vier, New York.
Tulunay, E., E. T. Senalp, L. R. Cander, Y. K. Tulunay, A. H.
[35] Acknowledgments. This work is partially supported Bilge, E. Mizrahi, S. S. Kouris, and N. Jakowski (2004),
by Middle East Technical University (METU) State Planning Development of algorithms and software for forecasting,
Organization, Turkey (DPT) project AFP-03-01-DPT nowcasting and variability of TEC, Ann. Geophys., 47(2
98K122690 and European Union project COST271. 3), 1201 1214.
Tulunay, Y., E. Tulunay, and E. T. Senalp (2001), An attempt
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