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MARKET OVERVIEW
H2 2015
Macroeconomic indicators
GDP
The real decrease of gross domestic product in the first
quarter of 2015, compared with the same period last
year, was 1,8%. In Q2 economy achieved growth of 1%
and in Q3 2,2%. Projection of deficit for 2015. is arround
of 4% of the budget and it will be on level of 1,2bn dollars.
In period january-august the estimated income of Foreign
direct investment (FDI) was 1.0 billion EUR and the
estimated net income SDI for 2015 was 1,3 billion EUR. CPI
Yoy inflacion during the first and the second quarter this
year continued to decrease under the lower acceptable
limit. According to NBS, yoy inflation in January 2015
recorded a minimum value of 0,1%. In February started
mild growth of 0,8%. Growth continued in March when
inflation reached the level of 1,9%. In the last months of
the year yoy inflation was 1,5% which is considered as the
best result.
The whole extrenal trade between Republic of Serbia for NET FDI
the period of January October 2015 is: 3,5 millon eur
growth of 6,7% comparing to the same period last year.
The export of the goods was 10,05 millon eur, and it
represents a growth of 8,5% according to the same
period last year. The import was 13,53 million eur, which
represents a growth of 5,3% according to the same
period last year. External trade deficit for this period is
3.051,5 millon eur, which represents a decrease of 3,0%
according to the same period last year. UNEMPLOYMENT
The unemployment rate in the Q3 of 2015 amounted to
16,7%, and decreased by 14% compared to 2014.
Average nominal net salary in the Republic of Serbia in Q4
was 51.485 RSD (420 EUR) and it was similar as the last
year, while comparing to the third quarter it increased by
15%.
At the last meeting of the NBS Executive Board on
October 14th, the reference interest rate was reduced by
0.5 percentage points to 4.5 percent
Office market
Supply Demand
During H2 2015 Belgrade market witnessed delivery of When analyzing market activity, during H2 2015 it
one Grade A office building 1st phase of GTC was dominated by net take-up recording share of
Fortyone project enlarging total modern office stock 85% for new lease and 10% for relocations, while
for 10.000 sq m GLA. Second phase of Fortyone renewals amounted to 5% of total gross take-up.
project with an area of 8.000 sq m GLA has started
with construction in Q3 2015. With adjoining 3rd IT and Banking sector remained the main drivers of
phase whole project will comprise total of 27.000 sq m demand growth in the office real estate market.
GLA.
Rental levels
At the end of H2 2015 total modern office stock of During H2 2015 rental levels remained stable
Class A and B comprised the total of 600.000 sq m recording prime asking rents for Class A office
GLA, out of which Class A amounts to 63% and Class buildings in CBD zone in range EUR 15 -17 per sq m
B to 37%. GLA, while for Class B in range EUR 11 -13 per sq m
GLA.
Pipeline
Modern office stock is expected to increase in the Yields
following period due to future office development Estimated prime office yields decreased ranging at
arrivals majorly within New Belgrade CBD zone. levels of 8.5% - 8.75%.
Vacancy rate
PIPELINE OFFICE PROJECTS Rapid absorption of modern office space and limited
Project / Area Delivery
Location Purpose Status delivery of new office completions resulted in
Investor (sq m) date
GTC "Fortyone"
continual downward trend of vacancy, reaching level
(phase 2)
Block 41, New Belgrade 8.000 Speculative Q3 2016 Underconstruction
of 5% at the end of H2 2015. Due to the announced
Airport City Airport City complex, pipeline projects, the slight increase in vacancy rate is
12.000 Speculative Q1 2016 Underconstruction
"2100" New Belgrade expected in following two years.
MPC "Navigator
Block 43, New Belgrade 14.600 Speculative Q4 2016 Underconstruction
Business Centre"
Deneza office Tosin Bunar, New
2.981 Speculative Q1 2016 Underconstruction
building Belgrade
Bvd. Zorana Djindjica,
Societe Generale 11.000 Owneroccupation Q1 2016 Underconstruction
New Belgrade
Delta Holding
Block 20, New Belgrade 20.000 Owneroccupation n/a Pipeline
Headquarters
Immorent "Sirius
Block 43, New Belgrade 18.500 Speculative 2016 Pipeline
offices" (phase 1)
Mutapova st,
Granit Invest 2.700 Speculative Q1 2016 Underconstruction
Downtown area
Retail market
Supply
The company Plaza Centers Serbia announced that Work on the construction of a new retail center in
they received a building permit for construction of a Nis "Stop Shop" well underway, with completion and
shopping mall in Belgrade, Vinjica. Belgrade Plaza opening is expected in April next year. Shopping
with 32.335 GLA is an investment worth EUR 80 center, will be build as a series of ground-level shops
million and is located in Visnjicka street near the and it is located on the site of a former motel
River Danube. Construction began in October 2015, Median".
and completion is expected in the first half of 2017.
Retail market
Rents
Market activity in retail sector is likely to continue to
benefit from investors interest for new projects. Average monthly rent in prime shopping centers has
decreased and now stands at EUR 26 per sq m. In
Demand shopping malls rents range from 15 to 60 EUR per sq
m, while in retail parks they vary from EUR 7 - 25 per
The strongest demand amongst both local and sq m depending on the size and position of the shop.
international retailers is for retail park projects, which Some of the anchor tenants agree to pay only
have been developed in the last several years, due to percentage of a turnover as monthly rent without
the lowest costs of leasing space in such projects. As minimum rent set.
for street retail, there is a slight demand. Only prime
units are leased in short time, while the average ones Rents for prime locations in Belgrade range between
remain vacant for a longer period of time or change EUR 30 80 per sq m per month. The same situation
several tenants in less then a year. is with rents of secondary location and these range
from EUR 10 25 per sq m per month.
Retail brands
Average retail rental levels
In 2015, only one new international brand LC 90
Yield
Investments / Acquisitions Yield remains stable at 8.5% for prime shopping malls
and 9 9.5% for retail warehouses.
Investment company Atterbury Europe took
over one-third share of one of the largest
Serbian companies for real estate
development, MPC Properties.
Residential market
Supply and pipeline
Construction of the complex called Sun City in Block
In recent years Novi Beograd has been very 63 at the corner of Jurija Gagarina Street and
attractive for investors due to its good position, Gandijeva Street has been announced. The investor is
excellent infrastructure, spacious areas for Energogroup, the start of construction is scheduled for
construction as well as a number of office buildings January 2016 and completion is scheduled for Jun
constructed in that part of town from 2007 till today. 2017. The total area is 33,000 sq. m, with 194
At the moment the biggest part of the ongoing residential units and 350 garages.
projects are located in New Belgrade.
Sale prices
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This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, view, and projections presented in this
report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by DANOS or BNP PARIBAS RE for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report this material
does not necessarily represent the view of DANOS or BNP PARIBAS RE in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed
with proper reference to DANOS Research.
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