METODO DE GAMMA PARA CAUDALES MAXIMOS

m Qmximo(m/s)
1962 8.000
1963 1.256
1964 2.530
1965 6.000
1966 2.300
1967 33.819
1968 1.501
1969 10.000
1970 1.925
1971 9.437
1972 255.000
1973 19.200
1974 3.428
1975 23.183
1976 10.693
1977 8.058
1978 10.000
1979 9.142
1980 3.700
1981 9.675
1982 3.360
1983 300.000
1984 12.500
1985 5.236
1986 4.425
1987 7.200
1988 4.200
1989 5.500
1990 2.854
1991 1.128
1992 10.000
1993 9.000
1994 14.000
1995 6.400
1996 13.094
1997 3.200
1998 93.750
1999 12.500
2000 19.438
2001 22.250
2002 37.250
2003 4.140
2004 1.706
2005 5.325
2006 7.775 N= 53
2007 2.450
2008 20.540
2009 12.430
2010 6.540
 2011 4.670
2012 14.250
2013 2.088
2014 2.514
1100.560
X 20.041
S= 52.0887

Clculo de la desviacin estandar

( X )2
X 2

N
S= 52.0887
X= X0= 1.128
N 1 X= 20.041

Clculo del parmetro at y

at


at
X= + X0 X =
2

= 0.00697
at = 0.13183

Ecuacin de prediccin o extrapolacin

1
Y =X 0 +( )K
2

Y = 1.128 + 1 K
0.01394

Con los dos prametros encontrados y con los valoresde T seleccionados

determinamos el valor de K

Probabilidad de Factores de Descarga

T (Aos) ocurrencia (%) Frecuencia(a y
1/T=P (Y>=Y) (k) m/s
2 aos 50 0.455 33.765
5 aos 20 1.64 118.765
10 aos 10 2.71 195.516
25 aos 4 4.135 297.756
50 aos 2 4.967 357.441
100 aos 1 6.63 476.738
200 aos 0.5 7.88 566.408
 PARA CAUDALES MEDIOS

m Qmedio(m/s)
1962 2.02
1963 0.57
1964 1.12
1965 1.44
1966 1.08
1967 4.18
1968 0.83
1969 1.58
1970 1.23
1971 2.09
1972 23.57
1973 4.46
1974 1.94
1975 4.05
1976 2.79
1977 2.55
1978 2.90
1979 2.74
1980 1.23
1981 2.45
1982 1.34
1983 69.41
1984 3.40
1985 2.01
1986 1.73
1987 2.59
1988 1.47
1989 2.03
1990 1.31
1991 0.32
1992 2.04
1993 2.41
1994 2.79
1995 1.61
1996 1.89
1997 1.27
1998 15.69
1999 3.25
2000 3.56
2001 4.36
2002 6.61
2003 1.81
2004 0.89
2005 1.31
2006 2.52 N= 53
2007 0.17
2008 1.34
2009 1.21
2010 0.94
 2011 0.84
2012 4.16
2013 1.01
2014 1.05
150.7900
X 4.435
S= 11.7863

Clculo de la desviacin estandar

( X )2
X 2

N
S= 11.7863
X= X0= 0.1700
N 1 X= 4.4350

Clculo del parmetro at y

at


at
X= + X0 X=
2

= 0.03070
at = 0.13094

Ecuacin de prediccin o extrapolacin

1
Y =X 0 +( )K
2

Y = 0.1700 + 1 K
0.0614

Con los dos prametros encontrados y con los valoresde T seleccionados

determinamos el valor de K

Probabilidad de Factores de Descarga

T (Aos) ocurrencia (%) Frecuencia(a y
1/T=P (Y>=Y) (k) m/s
2 aos 50 0.455 7.427
5 aos 20 1.64 26.727
10 aos 10 2.71 44.154
25 aos 4 4.135 67.362
50 aos 2 4.967 80.913
100 aos 1 6.63 107.997
200 aos 0.5 7.88 128.356
para caudales minimos

m Qmximo(m/s)
1962 0.12
1963 0.18
1964 0.00
1965 0.00
1966 0.00
1967 0.55
1968 0.24
1969 0.10
1970 0.85
1971 0.16
1972 0.34
1973 0.89
1974 1.34
1975 0.43
1976 0.45
1977 0.45
1978 1.07
1979 0.40
1980 0.26
1981 0.41
1982 0.40
1983 1.26
1984 0.72
1985 0.75
1986 0.74
1987 0.08
1988 0.32
1989 0.32
1990 0.87
1991 0.00
1992 0.42
1993 0.60
1994 0.26
1995 0.36
1996 0.12
1997 0.24
1998 1.15
1999 0.56
2000 0.72
2001 0.95
2002 0.87
2003 0.40
2004 0.23
2005 0.09
2006 0.53 N= 53
2007 0.00
2008 0.32
2009 0.23
2010 0.00
 2011 0.14
2012 0.75
2013 0.47
2014 0.36
23.468
X 0.460
S= 0.3270

Clculo de la desviacin estandar

( X )2
X 2

N
S= 0.3270
X= X0 = 0
N 1 X= 0.45994118

Clculo del parmetro at y

at


at
X= + X0 X =
2

= 4.30246
at = 1.97888

Ecuacin de prediccin o extrapolacin

1
Y =X 0 +( )K
2

Y = 0 + 1 K
8.60492

Con los dos prametros encontrados y con los valoresde T seleccionados

determinamos el valor de K

Probabilidad Factores de Descarga

T (Aos) ocurrencia ( Frecuencia(a y
1/T=P (Y>=Y) (k) m/s
2 aos 50 0.455 0.053
5 aos 20 1.64 0.191
10 aos 10 2.71 0.315
25 aos 4 4.135 0.481
50 aos 2 4.967 0.577
100 aos 1 6.63 0.770
200 aos 0.5 7.88 0.916