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Abstract. The methodology proposedpermits the regional analysisof that part of the duration curve
which refers to droughts. It only requires (1) the definition of an equation, characterisedby a set of
parameters, describing the lower part of the duration curve and (2) the identification of a suitable
number of statisticalregional laws enabling the parametersof the selectedequation to be calculated
in any location where no direct dischargemeasurementsare available.
An application of the methodology to a caseof the real world is then described.It refers to the
Molise Region (Italy) where the effect of outcropping limestone complexesheavily influences the
low flow characteristics.
Key words: drought analysis,regionalization, duration curve
1. Introduction
the duration curve may be given (Terstriepet al., 1982; Kikkawa and Takeuchi,
1975a-b;Takeuchi, 1988).
Although the choiceof thecharacteristicquantity will dependuponthe objective
of the hydrological analysis, this choice is also heavily influenced by the type
and quantity of information available in terms of data of hydrometry, geomorph-
ology, pluviometry and temperature.This conditioning is even more influential
when the study concernsriver sectionswithout direct measurements,where it is
thereforenecessaryto adoptregionalanalysisprocedureswhich, in turn, will vary
considerablyaccordingto the characteristicquantity selected.
This paper illustrates an extremely practical and simple regional nnalysis
methodology applied to a case where droughts are characterisedby using the
lower part of the durationcurve. A casestudy is then describedwhich refers to a
region in the south of Italy where the effect of outcroppinglimestone complexes
heavily influencesthe low flow characteristics.
The aim of a regional analysisis the transferto any ungaugedsite of the hydro-
logical information collected at the gaugedsites locatedwithin a region which is
homogeneousin terms of the characteristicquantity selected.In the caseconsid-
ered here,the hydrological information is representedby the part of the duration
curve referring to droughts.Thus, the regional analysisprocedureproposedwill
first require the definition of an equation,characterizedby a set of parameters,
describing the lower part of the duration curve and then the identification of a
suitablenumberof regional laws enablingthe parametersof the selectedequation
to be calculatedin any location of the region being studied.
The bearing structureof this methodologybasically follows the index value
method. In fact a model is formulated to representthe lower part of the duration
curve, while the regional curvesallow this model to be resealedat eachpoint of a
genericregion considered.
I$-+ lb)
0 100 0 100
Durarion (k) rb Duration (%) 9
100
3 3
Duration (%)
Figure 2. Three duration valuesselectedin sucha way asto coverthe duration rangeof interest.
The equation for the mathematical description of the LPDC can be expressed
as follows:
Equation (2a) applies to the sites where the duration curve reveals a clear downward
concavity, while Equation (2b) applies to the sites where the duration curve reveals
a negative exponential behaviour.
and
by Ferraresi et al. (1988). Some of its intermediate results, relevant to the monthly
precipitation and evapotraspiration quantities, proved useful for the analysis of the
LPDC.
Although still subject to different and sometimes contrary interpretations, the geol-
ogy of Molise can be outlined as follows on the basis of the knowledge gained so
far and according to the division provided in the Neotectonic Map of Italy (CNR,
1987): the south-western sector (Apennines) including limestone ridges belong-
ing to the Mesozoic Age and parted by the depression of the Voltumo Valley.
These reliefs belong to the region of the underlying Apennine limestone platform
except for the Frosolone Mountains which are part of the geological domain of the
Lagonegrese-Molisano basin.
The great majority of the underground water resources of the area of the Molise
Region are due to the presence of complexes characterized by a high infiltration,
of which a brief description is given below.
(a) Mesozoic limestone platform lying on the Middle Lias dolomitic substrata;
slope sediments, sometimes transgressive and partially covering the above-
mentioned soils. This series is the core of the south-western Apennine reliefs.
(b) Calcareous series divided into a nonoutcropping lower sequence belonging to
a period between the Middle Triassic and the Lower Cretaceous and an out-
cropping upper sequence belonging to a period between the Lower Cretaceous
and the Upper Myocene. This series outcrops in the Frosolone Mountains and
in the Southern sector of the Campanari Hills.
(c) Myocene complex which can be divided into calcarenite sediments, argillaceous
arenaceous flysch sediments and boulder clay. This complex forms the central
core of the region.
(d) Pleocene marine clay.
(e) Pleistocene river terraces.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 205
(f) Pleocenesand-conglomeratesediments.
(g) Recentand presentdebris,alluvial andeolian sediments.
Figure 3. Celico map (1983): (1) position of the different geological complexes and the main
directions of flow from limestone aquifers which are indicated with the darkest shade; (2)
location of the gauged sites. The dotted lines define the estimated boundaries of the areas
which feed springs (seeFigure 4 for the legend).
over seven times the total surface of the basin (see Figure 3). The large quantity
of groundwater discharge observed at that gauged site could not be explained if
related to the topographic basin alone.
An intermediate example is given by the Carpino stream at Carpinone gauged
site (Code 14), where 66.0 km2 out of 72.3 km2 of the topographic surface (i.e.
91.2%) is constituted by limestone outcrops, 44% (29.0 km2) of which contributes
to the groundwater discharge whereas 56% (37.0 km2) does not contribute since it
directs the flow outside the basin (see Figure 3).
ZLO
20.0
?s.n
no
5.0
0.0
Duration (%)
201) -
a.0 -.
Duration (%)
Figure 5. Some examples of duration curves in the duration range 15-100%. The abbreviation
LPDC (Lower Part of the Duration Curve) indicates the part of the duration curve for which the
regional analysis has been performed. Code 10: Biferno at P. della Fiumara; Code 12: Bifemo
at P. Liscione; Code 13: Bifemo at Altopantano.
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 209
duration curves are drawn with reference to the duration range between 15% and
100%.
Given the markedly limestone characteristics of the area under study, which
greatly affect the size of low flows, a variety of data was gathered. This information
concerns the topographic extent of the basin (S), the size of the limestone area inside
the basin not contributing to the outlet (A), the total size of the limestone area
contributing to the outlet (B) (limestone area inside the basin plus limestone area
outside the basin) and, lastly, the total limestone area inside the basin regardless of
whether or not it contributes to the basin outlet (APC). The data A, B and APC were
quantified on the basis of the map represented in Figure 3. These data are shown in
Table I. In addition, data were collected concerning mean monthly precipitation,
evapotranspiration and runoff quantities at the gauged sites.
Equations (2a-b) are used in this study to describe the LPDC at the gauged sites.
In order to choose the type of equation, a site by site analysis was made of the
shape of the LPDC as well as the values of a number of quantities, such as the
relation between the contributory limestone area and the area of the basin. Two
groups were then defined (see Table I): Group 1 characterised by the Equation (2a)
and Group 2 characterised by the Equation (2b). This division reflects the spatial
distribution of the sites and the characteristics both of the relevant basins and of
the hydraulic behaviour observed in each of them. The hydraulic behaviour can
be highlighted through the analysis of Figure 6, where the mean monthly trends
(ratio between 12 mean monthly discharges and one twelfth of the mean annual
discharge) in the various gauged sites are shown. The Group 2 sites reveal a high
degree of seasonality, which is a sign of scant or nonexistent spring activity. On the
contrary, the sites in Group 1 show a more uniform seasonal behaviour as shown by
the considerable spring activity occurring inside the relevant basins. The sites with
Code 11,12,13 were assigned to Group 1 even though they reveal a higher degree
of seasonality than the other sites in the same Group. In fact, it should be noted
that the Bifemo at the Ponte della Fiumara site (Code lo), which lies upstream
of the three indicated above, shows considerable spring activity (duration curve
with notable downward concavity). This activity sustains the low runoffs in all the
downstream sites and, therefore, also in the three sites considered. In fact, though
the full duration curves of these sites reveal a depletion type form, the shape of
the lower part is still comparable to that observed at Ponte de1 Fiumara (Code 10)
(duration curves not shown here).
The least squares method was used to calculate the a, b and c coefficients
of the Equations (2a) and (2b) for all the gauged sites, according to step 1 of the
regionalization procedure described in the section 2.3. More specifically, for Group
1 the coefficients of the function which describes the LPDC were calculated by
Table I. Characteristic hydrogeological data of the basins relevant to the gauged sites and their groups E
0
Code Name of the site S B APC A H Gr. range of
[km21 ba [km*1 Fm*l b-4 duration
S = Topographic area; B = Total contributing limestone area (inside + outside the topographic basin); APC = Limestone
area inside the topographic basin; A = Limestone area inside the topographic basin not contributing to flow at the outlet;
H = Average altitude of the basin; Gr. = Group.
Code 1 Gr.1 Code 2 Gr.1 Code 3 Gr.2 Code 4 Gr.2 Code 5 Or.2
3.
2-
1 -w
O- 0
I III v VII IX XI
o-I Ill v VII IX XI I III v vll IX XI z
2
Code 7 Gr.1 Code 8 Gr.1 Code 9 Gr.2 Code 10 Gr.1 Code 11 Gr.1
4
3- 3
2
27. 2 ?
1 !z
1 1-a.,. 7
0 O- 0
I Ill v VII IX XI I Ill v VII IX XI I III v VII IX XI
Code 12 Gr.1 Code 13 Gr.1 Code 14 Gr.1 Code 15 Gr.2 Code 16 Or.1
2 2
1 1
0 /!!!5sY 0 H
I Ill v WI IX XI I Ill v VII IX XI I Ill v VII IX Xl
N
Figure 6. Hydraulic behaviour at the gauged sites(ratio between 12 mean monthly dischargesand one twelfth of the mean annual discharge)and
indication of the Group to which each gauged site belongs.
212 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO
In the previous section two distinct trends in duration curves were highlighted,
corresponding to different types of flow behaviour in periods of drought. In other
words, two different kinds of hydraulic behaviour are present inside the region, for
each of which a specific set of regional laws must be defined.
Referring to Group 1, three regional laws of the following kind were obtained
after several attempts:
where QD~ is the discharge of duration Dk, S is the area of topographic basin [km2],
A is the limestone area, inside the basin, not contributing to the outlet [km2],
Pex is the mean annual rainfall excess, i.e. depth of mean annual precipitation
minus depth of mean annual potential evapotranspiration [mm], Dk,, is the mean
flow in the month of minimum flow [m3/s] (Dmin is calculated by identifying the
minimum-mean-monthly-flow expressed as a depth, i.e., referred to the area S of
the topographic basin. This value is then transformed into a volume (minimum-
mean-monthly-flow x S)) and finally divided by the number of seconds relevant
to that month), and ok, &, yk are the coefficients to be calculated. Note that the
quantity [Pex . (S - A)/10001 clearly represents the mean annual volume flowing
through the basin outlet.
Then, the coefficients (uk, pk, yk have been calculated, by using the nonlinear
least square method (package STATGRAPHICTM), on the basis of the data collected
in Table I.
Proceeding in an identical way, three regional laws of the following type were
obtained for Group 2:
where B is the total limestone area contributing to the outlet [km2], APC is the lime-
stone area present in the basin contributing to the outlet plus the non-contributory
limestone area also present in the basin [km2]. Note that (S + B - APC) rep-
resents the total area contributing to the outlet. The coefficients and ok, pk, yk in
Equation (7) are calculated in a similar way as for Equation (6).
The regional analysis procedure will now be as follows. With reference to a
generic ungauged site where nondirect discharge measurements are available, the
group to which it should belong is first defined. Then, using either Equation (6) or
(7), three pairs of values (Qlcr Dk) are defined on the basis of which the system of
Equations (4) or (5) can be solved in respect to the unknowns a, b and c. Once the
REGIONALANALYSISOFFLOWDURATIONCURVES 213
Figure 7. Location of the ungauged sitesconsideredfor the application of the regional procedure
(see Figure 4 for the legend).
coefficients a, b and c are known, the LPDC in that ungauged site will be defined
in full.
The procedure for applying the regional laws is not automatic and straightforward
because it embodies a relatively delicate point, namely the a priori definition of the
Group to which the ungauged site should belong. In order to perform this operation
in a reasonable way it is essential to have information on the nature of the soil,
on the percentage of limestone area in the basin, on the presence or absence of
springs, on the position of the ungauged site in relation to the gauged sites, on
the spatial distribution of the aquifers and on the directions of flow. Assuming the
rainfall characteristics to be identical, these factors heavily influence the behaviour
of watercourses in drought conditions.
The information needed was taken from the map shown in Figure 7 (see also
Figure 4) where the position of the ungauged sites and the watershed outlining
the relevant basins are indicated. Many basins draining to the ungauged sites have
characteristics similar to those of the gauged sites. For instance ungauged site Tl
214 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO
relates to a basin with a limestone area which influences the runoff in the same way
as the gauged site at Opi (Sangro river, Code 3). Ungauged site VI can be compared
with the gauged site at Brocco (Fibreno river, Code 16) as the total limestone area
contributing to the groundwater discharge in the section is considerably larger than
the limestone surface outcropping within the basin. Finally most of the remaining
basins have different percentages of limestone areas contributing to or affecting the
final groundwater discharge (note in Figure 7 the watersheds outlining the basins
relative to the ungauged sites, the arrows describing the main flow direction in
the limestone acquifers and the estimated boundaries of the areas feeding a certain
site). In conclusion, by comparing Figure 7 with Figure 3, i.e., by comparing the
hydrogeological characteristics of the basins relevant to the ungauged sites with
those of the basins relevant to the gauged sites, it was possible to define the Groups
to which each ungauged sites belong, with some inevitable degree of subjectivity.
Then the data required for the application of the regional laws were collected for
each ungauged site (Table II). In particular, the evaluation of the quantities Pex and
Dfii, were performed on the basis of the regional analysis of the mean monthly
flows which was developed according to Ferraresi et al. (1988), while the data
relevant to the quantities A, B and APC where estimated on the basis of map
shown in Figure 7.
By applying the regional laws pertaining to each Group and solving the relevant
systems of three equations in respect to the three unknowns, the coefficients of the
functions describing the LPDC were obtained. Figure 8 shows the duration curves
estimated for some ungauged sites. It is worthwhile observing that the regional
Equations (6) and (7) produce duration curves at the ungauged sites which, con-
sidering the tree structure of the several tributaries, are physically consistent, i.e.,
moving from upstream to downstream, they respect the volumes of the low flow
periods. The comparison between the sites with code B4, B9 and B12 (ungauged
sites, Figure 8) and sites located nearby having Code 10, 12 and 13 (gauged sites,
Figure 5), respectively, can be considered a further test of the reliability of the
applied methodology.
3.7. DISCUSSION
Equations (6) and (7) represent the regional laws which allow the calculation of the
coefficients of the LPDCs (see Equations (4) and (5)), at each point in the region
under study. Equations (6) and (7) link the discharge values of assigned duration
QD~ to several quantities characterising the various basins, including (1) the mean
net annual volume flowing through the outlet section [Pex . (S - A)], (2) the mean
outflow in the month of minimum flow Di,, and (3) the total area contributing to the
outlet section (S + B - APC). This means that the discharge values QD~ are linked
to quantities with a clear-cut and specific physical significance. Specifically, they
are affected by the actual contributing area which in many cases differs considerably
from the topographic area; this underscores the importance of limestone formations
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES
Duration(%)
M
w -. CODE B9
Duration(%)
70 75 50 m 90 95 no
Duration(%)
Figure 8. Examples of LPDC in some ungauged sites obtained using the regional laws.
216 MARCO FRANCHINI AND MAURO SUPPO
Table II. Characteristic data of the basins relevant to the ungauged sites. The
evaluation of Pex and D,,, emerges from the regional analysis of the mean
flows performed on the basis of the methodology proposed by Ferraresi et
al. (1988)
on the flow of the watercourses in this region. By contrast, the equations used to
express this link have a purely statistical value. Indeed, this situation is identical
to the one encountered in the application of the index discharge method where
the index discharge is usually linked by power laws to the area of the basin and to
other geo-morpho-climatic quantities.
Obviously, the type of equation and the quantities considered to express the link
given by Equations (3) may vary from one application to another. For example,
in an unpublished study of another area in Southern Italy where the presence of
limestone formations is not observed and the soil is of average-to-low permeability,
the regional laws identified take the classic form of powers while the quantities used
are Dk,, and the mean net annual rainfall volume (i.e. the annual rainfall volume
minus the mean annual potential evapotranspiration), calculated with reference to
the topographic area of the basins.
In the various applications of this procedure to real cases, it has always been
found necessary to define more than one equation to describe the LPDC. Conse-
REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLOW DURATION CURVES 217
quently, there has always been the problem of attribution to a generic ungauged site
of the equation representing the shape of the LPDC. Even though this operation
can be performed on the basis of various information as described above, it always
requires a certain measure of subjectivity. This is a sensitive aspect of the entire
procedure and demands the involvement of experts with a thorough qualitative-
quantitative knowledge of the characteristics of the flow in the various parts of the
region under study. It should, however, be made clear that this is the case with any
type of regional analysis, when different types of statistical behaviour are found in
the region selected.
Lastly, it is worth stressing that the mean flows regionalization procedure pro-
posed by Ferraresi et al. (1988) and used in this study does nof form an integral
part of the LPDC regionalization procedure. In fact this procedure has only been
used to calculate Pex and Dmin, which in turn are used in the regional laws 6 and
7. It is therefore clear (1) that that the mean flow analysis can be performed on
the basis of other methodologies without in this way affecting the structure of the
drought regionalization procedure and (2) that the mean flow analysis may not be
necessary if other geo-morpho-climatic quantities can be identified which furnish
a better statistical explanation of the behaviour of the discharges QD~.
4. Conclusions
Droughts may be studied through an analysis of the duration curve when the interest
basically concerns the quantification of the mean flow behaviour during periods
of low flow, regardless of their time sequence. In particular, when a watercourse
is characterised by a single period of low flows, such as the summer minimum
in Mediterranean fluvial behaviour, the part of the duration curve referring to
the droughts is almost entirely linked to the discharges of that period. As a
consequence, the average water availability during that period is simply calculated
by integration of the lower part of the duration curve.
The methodology described in this paper permits a regional analysis of the lower
part of the duration curve. It requires (1) the definition of an equation, characterised
by a set of parameters, describing the LPDC and (2) the identification of a suitable
number of regional laws enabling the parameters of the selected equation to be
calculated in any ungauged site. The regional laws are generally valid for Groups
of sites with similar LPDC. Calculation of the LPDC for any ungauged site will,
therefore, require the prior selection of the Group to which the ungauged site in
question is to refer. Once an ungauged site has been assigned to a Group, the
procedure is straightforward.
The case study discussed refers to a limestone region of the south of Italy.
It reveals that the most important geological information needed to perform the
regional analysis is the nature of the soil, the percentage of limestone area involving
the basin, the presence or absence of springs, the spatial distribution of the aquifers
and the directions of flow, while the most important hydrological information is
218 MARCOFRANCHINIAND MAUROSUPPO
the mean annual rainfall excessand the averageflow in the month of minimum
flow.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Prof. P.E. OConnell for his useful comments on an
initial draft of this paper.The authorsalso wish also to thank the two anonymous
reviewersfor their suggestions.
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