Preview 30 July 2010

EMU economic indicators (week of 2 to 8 August 2010)

 German industrial new orders (June): up

 Output in the German producing sector (June): up
 ECB: no policy action

Region Indicator Date BHF forecast Previous

GE PMI mfg / Jul rev Mon 2 Aug, 9:55 61.2 58.4

2.8 pp mom 0.0 pp mom
EMU PMI mfg / Jul rev Mon 2 Aug, 10:00 56.5 55.6
0.9 pp mom –0.2 pp mom
GE Industrial new orders / Jun Thur 5 Aug, 12:00 106.6 105.0
1.5% mom –0.5% mom
21.4% yoy 24.4% yoy
EMU ECB Council meeting / refi rate Thur 5 Aug, 13:45 1.00% 1.00%
IT Industrial production / Jun Fri 6 Aug, 10:00 87.9 87.9
0.0% mom 1.0% mom
7.2% yoy 7.1% yoy
IT GDP / Q2 2010 Fri 6 Aug, 11:00 0.4% qoq 0.4% qoq
1.1% yoy 0.5% yoy
GE Output in the producing sector / Jun Fri 6 Aug, 12:00 105.5 104.5
1.0% mom 2.6% mom
12.1% yoy 12.4% yoy

Germany: Output in the producing sector German industrial new orders might have re-
usually follows industrial new orders bounded in June, as the correlated indicators sent
Index mixed, but mainly quite positive signals. Output in
127 the German producing sector could have contin-
122 ued to rise in June, but the May increase is likely
117 to be revised downwards. Italian industrial pro-
112
duction will probably have stagnated in June, be-
cause Italian business confidence deteriorated
107
slightly. Italian GDP is expected to have gone up
Output in the
102
producing sector again in Q2.
97
On Thursday, the ECB Council is holding its regu-
92
lar monthly meeting. We expect the ECB to leave
87
Industrial new orders
policy rates unchanged. Market participants will
82 probably focus on the assessment of economic
77 risks. On the one hand, euro area growth in Q2 is
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 likely to have been strong, and leading indicators
give a favourable outlook for Q3. Moreover, finan-
cial market tension has eased, and money markets seem to be coping quite well with the reduced supply
of liquidity. Finally, inflation in the euro area accelerated to 1.7% in July. On the other hand, the external
environment has become shakier. The economic recovery in the USA lost steam in Q2, as did growth in

Economics Department volkswirtschaft@bhf-bank.com

+49 69 718-3642 www.bhf-bank.com
China. On balance, we expect the ECB to strike a slightly more hawkish tone. However, the medium term
outlook remains highly uncertain, making near-term policy changes extremely unlikely.

Dr. Gerd Hassel Tel. +49 69 718-4121

Stephan Rieke Tel. +49 69 718-4114

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Economics Department volkswirtschaft@bhf-bank.com

+49 69 718-3642 www.bhf-bank.com
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