Metodos para pronosticar la demanda

7,5 Pg 193
Demanda Trimestral de Tahoe Salt
Ao Trimestre Periodo,t Demanda Dt
1 2 1 8000
1 3 2 13000
1 4 3 23000
2 1 4 34000
2 2 5 10000
2 3 6 18000
2 4 7 23000
3 1 8 38000
3 2 9 12000
3 3 10 13000
3 4 11 32000
4 1 12 41000
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.958065
R Square 0.917889
Adjusted R 0.904204
Standard E 414.5033
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 11523810 11523810 67.07182 0.000179
Residual 6 1030878 171813
Total 7 12554688

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 18438.99 440.8087 41.82991 1.25E-08 17360.37 19517.61 17360.37 19517.61
X Variable 523.8095 63.95925 8.189738 0.000179 367.3069 680.3122 367.3069 680.3122
p 4
p/2 2
Periodo, t Demanda Dt Demanda desest D.DESESTASt F
1 8000 18962.8 0.421879
2 13000 19486.61 0.667125
3 23000 19750 20010.42 1.149401
4 34000 20625 20534.23 1.655772
5 10000 21250 21058.04 0.474878
6 18000 21750 21581.85 0.834034
7 23000 22500 22105.65 1.040458
8 38000 22125 22629.46 1.679227
9 12000 22625 23153.27 0.518285
10 13000 24125 23677.08 0.549054
11 32000 24200.89 1.322265
12 41000 24724.7 1.658261
13 0.471681 11909.24
14 0.683404 17612.92
15 1.170708 30785.09
16 1.66442 44639.64

Intercept 18438.988095
X Variable 1 523.80952381
 Demanda v/s Demanda Desest
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Col umn B Col umn C
. En este caso, estimamos cada uno de estos parmetros con base en la informacin histrica y luego utilizamos los mismos val

Ahora describimos cmo cada uno de los tres parmetros,nivel,tendencia y factores estacionales,pueden ser estimados.Los sig
para hacer esta estimacin: 1. Desestacionalizar la demanda y ejecutar regresiones lineales para estimar el nivel y la tendencia. 2. Estimar l
nivel y la tendencia. 2. Estimar los factores estacionales.
Supermercado
No tendencia o estacionalidad

Periodo Demanda Periodo Demanda

1 120 1 120
2 127 2 127
3 114 3 114
4 122 4 122
5 120.75 5 125
6 6 122

SOLO SE SACA PROMEDIO

Pronostiquemos la demanda para el periodo 5 empleando un promedio mvil de cuatro periodos. Cul es el error de pronsti

E= 125-120,75 4.25

Demanda de leche
130

125

120

115

110

105
1 2 3 4
115

110

105
1 2 3 4
s. Cul es el error de pronstico si la demanda en el periodo 5 resulta ser 125 galones?
Eejemplo Supermercado

Alfa 0.1
Periodo Demanda L F
120.75
1 120 120.675 120.75
2 127 121.3075 120.675
3 114 120.5768 121.3075
4 122 120.7191 120.5768
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.955665
R Square 0.913295
Adjusted R 0.891619
Standard E 433.9514
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7934336 7934336 42.13358 0.002905
Residual 4 753255.3 188313.8
Total 5 8687591

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 7367.133 403.9868 18.23608 5.32E-05 6245.486 8488.78 6245.486 8488.78
X Variable 673.3429 103.7342 6.491039 0.002905 385.3305 961.3552 385.3305 961.3552
MP3
Alfa 0.1
Beta 0.2
Periodo,t Demanda Dt L T F
7367 673
1 8415 8077.5 680.5 8040
2 8732 8755.4 679.98 8758
3 9014 9393.242 671.5524 9435.38
4 9808 10039.11 666.4165 10064.79
5 10413 10676.28 660.5659 10705.53
6 11961 11399.26 673.049 11336.84
7 10865.08 431.6028 12072.31

Intercept 7367.13333
X Variable 673.342857
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.958065
R Square 0.917889
Adjusted R 0.904204
Standard E 414.5033
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 11523810 11523810 67.07182 0.000179
Residual 6 1030878 171813
Total 7 12554688

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 18438.99 440.8087 41.82991 1.25E-08 17360.37 19517.61 17360.37 19517.61
X Variable 523.8095 63.95925 8.189738 0.000179 367.3069 680.3122 367.3069 680.3122
Alfa 0.1 Periodo 4
Beta 0.2
Gama 0.1
Periodo,t Demanda Dt D desest Ec.demanda F L T S Error
18439 524
1 8000 18963 8912.61 18768.83 485.1655 0.47 912.61
2 13000 19487 13092.715370213 19240.36 482.4386 0.68 92.71537
3 23000 19750 20011 23075.672709357 19716.33 481.1451 1.17 75.67271
4 34000 20625 20535 33729.782403681 20213.66 484.3812 1.67 -270.218
5 10000 21250 21059 9637.49972563 20775.89 499.9517 0.465624 -362.5
6 18000 21750 21583 14458.344520824 21797 604.1845 0.679566 -3541.66
7 23000 22500 22107 26201.653526107 22127.46 549.4392 1.169655 3201.654
8 38000 22125 22631 37897.709762326 22683.02 550.6634 1.671203 -102.29
9 12000 22625 23155 10854.6434223 23478.84 599.6947 0.467194 -1145.36
10 13000 24125 23679 16715.075811986 23543.37 492.6613 0.69419 3715.076
11 32000 24203 27800.851579455 24399.08 565.2712 1.156632 -4199.15
12 41000 24727 41730.635531833 24920.64 556.5295 1.671609 730.6355
13 12014.643087311 0.471585
14 17702.607762652 0.679988
15 31166.985221595 1.172122
16 45307.139406942 1.66897

Mad 1529.1276279399
MAPE 0.0864678289
MSE 4761356.7794461
Intercept 18439
X Variable 524

11909.24
17612.92
30785.09
44639.64
Error*Error Abs(Error) % Error BIAS.E.B MAD TS L. superiorL. inferior
6 -6
832857.012 912.61 0.114076 912.61 912.61 1 6 -6
8596.13987 92.71537 0.007132 1005.325 502.6627 2 6 -6
5726.35894 75.67271 0.00329 1080.998 360.3327 3 6 -6
73017.5494 270.2176 0.007948 810.7805 337.8039 2.400151 6 -6
131406.449 362.5003 0.03625 448.2802 342.7432 1.307919 6 -6
12543323.5 3541.655 0.196759 -3093.38 875.8952 -3.53167 6 -6
10250585.3 3201.654 0.139202 108.2783 1208.146 0.089623 6 -6
10463.2927 102.2902 0.002692 5.988018 1069.914 0.005597 6 -6
1311841.69 1145.357 0.095446 -1139.37 1078.297 -1.05664 6 -6
13801788.3 3715.076 0.285775 2575.707 1341.975 1.919341 6 -6
17632847.5 4199.148 0.131223 -1623.44 1601.718 -1.01356 6 -6
533828.28 730.6355 0.01782 -892.806 1529.128 -0.58387 6 -6
57136281.4 18349.53 1.037614
Alfa 0 Periodo 4
Beta 0.14605713
Gama 0
Periodo,t Demanda Dt D desest Ec.demanda F L T S Error
18439 524
1 8000 18963 8912.61 18963 524 0.47 912.61
2 13000 19487 13251.16 19487 524 0.68 251.16
3 23000 19750 20011 23412.87 20011 524 1.17 412.87
4 34000 20625 20535 34293.45 20535 524 1.67 293.45
5 10000 21250 21059 9897.73 21059 524 0.47 -102.27
6 18000 21750 21583 14676.44 21583 524 0.68 -3323.56
7 23000 22500 22107 25865.19 22107 524 1.17 2865.19
8 38000 22125 22631 37793.77 22631 524 1.67 -206.23
9 12000 22625 23155 10882.85 23155 524 0.47 -1117.15
10 13000 24125 23679 16101.72 23679 524 0.68 3101.72
11 32000 24203 28317.51 24203 524 1.17 -3682.49
12 41000 24727 41294.09 24727 524 1.67 294.09
13 11867.97 0.47
14 17527 0.68
15 30769.83 1.17
16 44794.41 1.67

Mad 1380.2325
MAPE 0.0782323522
MSE 3748065.023475
Intercept 18439
X Variable 524

11909.24
17612.92
30785.09
44639.64
Error*Error Abs(Error) % Error BIAS.E.B MAD TS L. superiorL. inferior
6 -6
832857.012 912.61 0.114076 912.61 912.61 1 6 -6
63081.3456 251.16 0.01932 1163.77 581.885 2 6 -6
170461.637 412.87 0.017951 1576.64 525.5467 3 6 -6
86112.9025 293.45 0.008631 1870.09 467.5225 4 6 -6
10459.1529 102.27 0.010227 1767.82 394.472 4.481484 6 -6
11046051.1 3323.56 0.184642 -1555.74 882.6533 -1.76257 6 -6
8209313.74 2865.19 0.124573 1309.45 1165.873 1.12315 6 -6
42530.8129 206.23 0.005427 1103.22 1045.918 1.054787 6 -6
1248024.12 1117.15 0.093096 -13.93 1053.832 -0.01322 6 -6
9620666.96 3101.72 0.238594 3087.79 1258.621 2.453312 6 -6
13560732.6 3682.49 0.115078 -594.7 1478.973 -0.4021 6 -6
86488.9281 294.09 0.007173 -300.61 1380.233 -0.2178 6 -6
44976780.3 16562.79 0.938788
Datos
Alfa 0.1
Zo Tech 4
no Tech 2
n1 1

Mes Demanda Zn Tech n Tech F

4 2
1 Enero 5 4.1 1.9 2.19
2 Febrero 0 4.1 1.9 2.19
3 Marzo 2 3.89 1.92 1.99
4 Abril 0 3.89 1.92 1.99
5 Mayo 0 3.89 1.92 1.99
6 Junio 10 4.5 2.02 2.23
7 Julio 0 4.5 2.02 2.23