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Perspectivas de la

Industria Automotriz
PERU
Diciembre, 2016

Guido Vildozo | Senior Manager, Americas
+1 781 301 9037, guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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© 2016 ©
Source: IHS
2016
Markit.
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Markit.
RightsAllReserved.
Rights Reserved.
Contents

INDICADORES ECONÓMICOS
‫‮‬

PERSPECTIVA GLOBAL DE LA
‫‮‬

INDUSTRIA AUTOMOTRIZ

CAMBIOS EN MOBILIDAD
‫‮‬

PERSPECTIVA DE LA INDUSTRIA
‫‮‬

AUTOMOTRIZ EN AMÉRICA
LATINA

PERSPECTIVA DE VENTAS
‫‮‬

AUTOMOTRICES PARA EL
MERCADO PERUANO

RESUMEN
‫‮‬

© 2016 IHS Markit 3
4

Crecimiento económico - Mundial
10.00economic growth rates
World
8.00

6.00

4.00
World avg. 2.5%

2.00

0.00

-2.00

-4.00

-6.00
World United Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China United
States Kingdom

Source: IHS 2015 2016 2017 Avg. 2018-23 © 2016 IHS

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
5

Asia-Pacifico será la región con mayor crecimiento
Real GDP
6
Annual percent change

4

2

0

-2
NAFTA Other Western Emerging Mideast- Sub- Japan Other
Americas Europe Europe N. Africa Saharan Asia-
Africa Pacific
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019–23
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
5
6

Índices de Manufactura Global
PMIs(Index, over 50 indicates expansion)
60
Index, over 50 signals expansion

55

50

45

40

35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Global Emerging markets Developed markets
Source: Markit © 2016 IHS

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
6
7

La era de rápido crecimiento comercial termino
Real GDP and trade
16

12
Percent change

8

4

0

-4

-8

-12
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Real world exports Real world GDP
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
7
8

Precios de materias primas recuperan desde Enero
IHS Materials Price Index
6
IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1

5

4

3

2

1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
9

Ventas
91.0
Globales Automotrices 2016
Million units

+ 0.2 - 0.1
- 0.1
+ 0.2 - 0.1
- 0.6
90.5
+ 0.8

90.0
90.0

+ 1.6
89.5

89.0

+2.3%

88.5

88.0 88.1
2015 Greater China West Europe South Asia North America Middle Central/East Japan/Korea South America 2016
East/Africa Europe

© 2016 IHS 9
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
10

Desarrollo de mercado por región
Short term supports 3-speed world
30 27.4
26.4 26.7
+2.7%
+6.0% +1.1%

25 21.0 21.3 21.2
+1.3% +1.5% -0.5%
19.6 19.7 20.1
+3.5% +0.6% +2.3%
20
Millones

15 6.8 6.7
+2.8% -1.5%
6.7
-1.4%
10 9.1 +6.6%
8.4 +4.8%
7.8 -4.9%

4.5 4.8 5.1
5 3.7 3.7 3.8

0
2016 2017 2018

Greater China North America Europe Japan/Korea South Asia Middle East/Africa South America

Source: IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit
10
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
11

Desarrollo de mercado Maduro vs Emergente
Potential of emerging markets lowered

70
Millones

Emerging 3Q '15

Mature 3Q '15
60
Emerging 3Q '16

Mature 3Q '16
50

40

30

20

10
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Source: IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit
11
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
12

Transporte/Mobilidad
presente vs. futuro (2040)

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
13

Temas globales influenciando al sector
automotriz del mañana
Un nuevo contexto global se forma, sin embargo aun no
se sabe que rol cada variable tendrá
Presión Desarrollo
Regulatoria Tecnológico

Incertidumbre
Medio Ambiente Económica

Conectividad
Rivales Energéticos

Cambios en la Sociedad
Source: IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit

13
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
14

El futuro de la industria puede ser muy diverso

Share of gasoline ICE to decline

Potential for
peak global
auto sales

14
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
15

La gasolina será desplazada por otras energías
alternativas

Electricity’s share
Gasoline demand in transport
peaks in all IHS is growing
scenarios

15
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
16

Pronostico de ventas de carros eléctricos por
región

(million per year)

16
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
17

Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América Latina
Margen de error 2016 y perspectivas de crecimiento
CY 2016
Pais CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2017 P'17 Dic15 MOE '16
Argentina 650,144 631,996 -2.8% 671,076 6.2% 710,291 5.8% 579,740 15.8%
Brazil 3,333,082 2,480,502 -25.6% 1,979,968 -20.2% 1,969,610 -0.5% 2,100,228 -5.7%
Chile 328,412 283,495 -13.7% 298,081 5.1% 314,877 5.6% 262,057 13.7%
Colombia 296,047 267,821 -9.5% 237,073 -11.5% 247,472 4.4% 264,117 -10.2%
Ecuador 92,930 72,117 -22.4% 57,020 -20.9% 54,497 -4.4% 81,413 -30.0%
Mexico 1,135,029 1,351,812 19.1% 1,599,031 18.3% 1,695,393 6.0% 1,399,876 14.2%
Peru 165,915 147,559 -11.1% 151,772 2.9% 162,531 7.1% 150,483 0.9%

17
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
18

Perspectivas económicas - Perú
PIB Inflación
7% 4.0%
6% 3.5%
5% 3.0%
4% 2.5%
2.0%
3%
1.5%
2% 1.0%
1% 0.5%
0% 0.0%

Cambio de Moneda por USD* Cuenta Corriente
4.0 0

Billones (USD)
3.5
3.0 -2
2.5 -4
2.0
1.5 -6
1.0 -8
0.5
0.0 -10

*Promedio anual
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
19

Venta de Vehículos Ligeros (SAAR) - Perú
250
Miles

200

150

100

50

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
20

Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros - Perú
Eminente retomada de crecimiento

300.0 120%
Miles

100%
250.0
80%
200.0
60%

150.0 40%

20%
100.0
0%
50.0
-20%

0.0 -40%
2012

2018
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Sales Annual Change

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
21

Marcas Mas Vendidas 2016
35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Toyota Hyundai Kia Nissan Suzuki Chevrolet Renault Mazda VW Mitsubishi Others
2010 30.5% 11.5% 8.3% 10.2% 7.7% 7.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.9% 2.1% 15.7%
2015 19.3% 13.8% 14.9% 8.5% 5.8% 5.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 21.5%
2016 16.9% 16.4% 15.0% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 22.8%
2017 17.7% 15.8% 14.9% 8.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 24.4%

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
22

Bodytype –SUVs sobrepasaran a sedanes
80
Miles

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2013 2016 2020 2025

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Toyota
50 50% 100%
Millares

45 90%
40%
40 80%
30%
35 70%
30 20% 60%
25 10% 50%
20 0% 40%
15 30%
-10%
10 20%
5 -20% 10%
- -30% 0%

Toyota OEM YOY Industry YOY Yaris Hilux RAV4 Corolla Avanza
25
Chassis-
Cab
20
Wagon Coupe

15

Van Hatchback
10

5
SUV MPV

0 Industry
2016
Sedan Pickup
OEM
2011 2016 2025 Roadster
2016

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Hyundai
35 70% 100%
60% 90%
30 80%
50%
25 40% 70%
30% 60%
20
20% 50%
15 10% 40%
10 0% 30%
-10% 20%
5
-20% 10%
- -30% 0%

Hyundai OEM YOY Industry YOY i10 Accent Tucson Elantra Santa Fe
12
Chassis-
Cab
10
Wagon Coupe
8

6 Van Hatchback

4

2 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Kia
40 100% 100%
Millares

90%
35 80% 80%
30 70%
60%
25 60%
20 40% 50%
15 40%
20% 30%
10
0% 20%
5 10%
- -20% 0%

Kia OEM YOY Industry YOY Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo
25
Chassis-
Cab
20
Wagon Coupe

15

Van Hatchback
10

5
SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Nissan
25 50% 100%
Millares

40% 90%
20 80%
30%
70%
20%
15 60%
10%
50%
0%
10 40%
-10% 30%
5 -20% 20%
-30% 10%
- -40% 0%

Nissan OEM YOY Industry YOY Sentra Tiida Frontier Versa X-Trail
12
Chassis-
Cab
10
Wagon Coupe
8

6 Van Hatchback

4

2 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Suzuki
14 50% 100%
Millares

90%
12 40%
80%
10 30% 70%
60%
8 20%
50%
6 10% 40%
4 0% 30%
20%
2 -10%
10%
- -20% 0%

Suzuki OEM YOY Industry YOY Swift Alto Vitara APV Celerio
7
Chassis-
6 Cab

5 Wagon Coupe

4
Van Hatchback
3

2

1 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Chevrolet
25 140% 100%
Millares

120% 90%
20 100% 80%
80% 70%
15 60% 60%
40% 50%
10 20% 40%
0% 30%
5 -20% 20%
-40% 10%
- -60% 0%

Chevrolet OEM YOY Industry YOY N300 Sail Trax Spark Captiva
12
Chassis-
Cab
10
Wagon Coupe
8

6 Van Hatchback

4

2 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Renault
8 50% 100%
Millares

7 40%
80%
6 30%
5 60%
20%
4
10% 40%
3
0%
2
20%
1 -10%
- -20% 0%

Renault OEM YOY Industry YOY Duster Duster Oroch Logan Sandero Master
3
Chassis-
Cab
3
Wagon Coupe
2

2 Van Hatchback

1

1 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mazda
6 70% 100%
Millares

60% 90%
5 50% 80%
40% 70%
4 30% 60%
20%
3 50%
10%
40%
2 0%
-10% 30%
1 -20% 20%
-30% 10%
- -40% 0%

Mazda OEM YOY Industry YOY 3 CX-5 2 CX-3 BT-50
3
Chassis-
Cab
2
Wagon Coupe

2

Van Hatchback
1

1
SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Volkswagen
8 50% 100%
Millares

40% 90%
7
30% 80%
6 70%
20%
5 10% 60%
4 0% 50%
3 -10% 40%
-20% 30%
2
-30% 20%
1 -40% 10%
- -50% 0%

Volkswagen OEM YOY Industry YOY Gol Amarok Fox Up! Jetta
5
Chassis-
5 Cab
4
Wagon Coupe
4
3
3 Van Hatchback
2
2
1
SUV MPV
1
0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mitsubishi
4.0 50% 100%
Millares

90%
3.5 40%
80%
3.0 30% 70%
2.5 60%
20%
2.0 50%
10% 40%
1.5
0% 30%
1.0
20%
0.5 -10%
10%
- -20% 0%

Mitsubishi OEM YOY Industry YOY L200 Mirage ASX Outlander Montero
2
Chassis-
2 Cab
1
Wagon Coupe
1
1
Van Hatchback
1
1
0
SUV MPV
0
0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Honda
4.5 80% 100%
Millares

4.0 70% 90%
60% 80%
3.5
50% 70%
3.0 40% 60%
2.5 30%
50%
2.0 20%
40%
1.5 10%
0% 30%
1.0 -10% 20%
0.5 -20% 10%
- -30% 0%

Honda OEM YOY Industry YOY HR-V CR-V Pilot Civic Fit
3
Chassis-
Cab
3
Wagon Coupe
2

2 Van Hatchback

1

1 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
BMW
2.5 60% 100%
Millares

90%
50%
2.0 80%
40%
70%
1.5 30% 60%
20% 50%
1.0 10% 40%
30%
0%
0.5 20%
-10% 10%
- -20% 0%

BMW OEM YOY Industry YOY 3-Series X3 X1 1-Series 5-Series
1
Chassis-
Cab
1
Wagon Coupe
1

1 Van Hatchback

0

0 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mercedes-Benz
2.5 70% 100%
Millares

60% 90%
2.0 50% 80%
40% 70%
1.5 30% 60%
20% 50%
1.0 10% 40%
0% 30%
0.5 -10% 20%
-20% 10%
- -30% 0%

Mercedes-Benz OEM YOY Industry YOY Sprinter C-Class GLE CLA GLA
1
Chassis-
1 Cab
1
Wagon Coupe
1
1
Van Hatchback
0
0
0
SUV MPV
0
0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Audi
1.8 70% 100%
Millares

1.6 60% 90%
50% 80%
1.4
40% 70%
1.2
30% 60%
1.0
20% 50%
0.8 40%
10%
0.6 0% 30%
0.4 -10% 20%
0.2 -20% 10%
- -30% 0%

Audi OEM YOY Industry YOY A3 A4 Q5 Q3 Q7
1
Chassis-
Cab
1
Wagon Coupe
0

0 Van Hatchback

0

0 SUV MPV

0 Industry 2016

Sedan Pickup OEM 2016

2011 2016 2025 OEM 2025
Roadster

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!

Guido Vildozo,
Senior Manager, Americas
guido.vildozo@ihsmarkit.com
781-301-9037

IHS Markit Customer Care:
CustomerCare@ihsmarkit.com
Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)
Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300
Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600

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