By

Dr.Atcharaporn Khoomtong
Elementary statistics 1

Introduction
Statisticalmethodology
Step of scientific research
Important parametric tests
Important nonparametric tests
Example using Excel program
Using Excel for Statistics in Gateway
Cases Office 2007

Elementary statistics 2
Most people become familiar with probability and
statistics through radios, television,newspapers and
magazines.For example,the following statements
were found in newspapers.
Eating 10 grams(g) of fiber a day reduce the risk
of heart attack by 14%
Thirty minutes (of exercise) two or three times
each week can raise HDLs 10 to 15%

Elementary statistics 3

Statisticsis used to analyze the results of

surveys and as a tool in scientific research to
make decisions based on controlled
experiments.
Other uses of statistics include operations
research, quality control, estimation and
prediction.

Elementary statistics 4
 Whats it?

Flower

asthe basis of data analysis are concerned with two

basic types of problems
(1) summarizing, describing, and exploring the data
This problems is covered by descriptive statistics

(2) using sampled data to infer the nature of the

process which produced the data
This problems is covered by inferential statistics.

Elementary statistics 6
 Statistics plays an important role in the
description of mass phenomena.
Organized and summarized for clear
presentation for ease of communications.
Data may come from studies of populations
or samples
It offers methods to summarize a collection
of data. These methods may be numerical or
graphical, both of which have their own
advantages and disadvantages.

Elementary statistics 7

Inferential statistics is used to draw

conclusions about a data set.
Usually this means drawing inferences about
a population from a sample either by
estimating some relationships or by testing
some hypothesis.

A Population is the
set of all possible
states of a random
variable. The size of
the population may A Sample is a subset
be either infinite or of the population; its
finite. size is always finite.

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 Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
Graphical Confidence interval
Arrange data in tables Compare means of two
Bar graphs and pie charts samples
Numerical t Test
Percentages F -Test
Averages Compare means from
Range three samples
Relationships Pre/post (LSD,DMRT)
Correlation coefficient ANOVA = analysis of
Regression analysis variance
F -Test

Another important aspect of data analysis is the Data,

which can be of two different types:

qualitative data ex. Sex, color, smell, taste etc.

quantitative data ex. Height, weight, percentage etc.

Qualitative data does not contain quantitative

information.

Qualitative data can be classified into categories.

Elementary statistics 10
Type of Scale Possible Statements Allowed Examples
Operators
nominal scale identity, countable =, colors, phone
numbers,
feelings
ordinal scale identity, less =, , <, > soccer league
than/greater than table, military
relations, countable ranks, energy
efficiency
classes
interval scale identity, less =, , <, dates (years),
than/greater than >, +, - temperature in
relations, equality of Celsius, IQ scale
differences
ratio scale identity, less =, , <, velocities,
than/greater than >, +, -, *, / lengths,
relations, equality of temperatur in
differences, equality Kelvin, age
of ratios, zero point
Elementary statistics 11

Collecting the
necessary
facts Analyzing the facts
Inference Statistics
Descriptive Statistics Making decisions

Assessing Carrying out

decisions
the results

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 Mode =The most frequent value
Median =The value of the middle point of the ordered
measurements
Mean =The average (balancing point in the distribution)
Variance= The average of the squared deviations of all
the population measurements from the
population mean
Standard deviation =The square root of the variance

Descriptive Formula Inferential Formula

2
2

2
S2
1
Called the unbiased
estimator of the population
value
Population of profit margins for five companies:
8%, 10%, 15%, 12%, 5%

8 10 15 12 5 50
10 %
5 5

2

8 10 2 10 10 2 15 10 2 12 10 2 5 10 2
5

2 2
0 5 2 52
2 2 2

5
4 0 25 4 25 58
11.6
5 5

2 11.6 3.406%

Hypothesis = a assumption or some supposition

to be proved or disproved.

the automobile A is performing

as well as
automobile B.
 Null hypothesis (H0 ) =expresses no difference
Often said
H naught Or any number
H0: = 0

Later.
H0: 1 = 2

Alternative hypothesis (H1 )

H0: = 0; Null Hypothesis

HA: = 0; Alternative Hypothesis

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Type I error () :
reject H0 | H0 true

Type II error () :
Accept H0 | H1 true

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 Calculated F value is greater than the critical F values
Significant >>>reject H0

Calculated F value is lower than the critical F values

Non Significant >>>accept H0

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Truth H0 Correct HA Correct

Data

Decide H0 1-
fail to reject H0 True Negative False Negative
Decide HA 1-
reject H0 False Positive True Positive
= significance level
1- = power
 Z - test F test
T test

Elementary statistics 21

Z - test
is based on the normal probability distribution and is used for
judging the significance of several statistical measures, particularly
the mean. (n>30)
z-test is generally used for comparing the mean of a sample to
some hypothesized mean for the population in case of large sample
 T test
is based on t-distribution and is considered an appropriate
test for judging the significance of a sample mean or for
judging the significance of difference between the means
of two samples in case of small sample(s) when population
variance is not known (in which case we use variance of
the sample as an estimate of the population variance).

t-test applies only in case of small sample(s)

when population variance is unknown.

Unknown variance
Under H0 X 0
~ t(n1)
s/ n
Critical values: statistics books or computer
t-distribution approximately normal for degrees of freedom (df) >30

Elementary statistics 23

F test
is based on F-distribution and is used to compare the variance of
the two-independent samples. This test is also used in the context
of analysis of variance (ANOVA) for judging the significance of
more than two sample means at one and the same time.

Test statistic, F, is calculated and compared with its probable value

(to be seen in the F-ratio tables for different degrees of freedom for
greater and smaller variances at specified level of significance) for
accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis.

Elementary statistics 24
Anova tables:
for a 1-way anova with N observations and T treatments.

Source df SS MS F
treatment (T-1) SStrt =SStrt/(T-1) MStrt/MSerr
errorby subtraction Sserr =SSerr/dferr
Total (N-1)

Finally, you (or the PC) consult tables or otherwise obtain a probability of
obtaining this F value given df for treatment and error.

1: Calculate N, x, x2 for the whole dataset.

2: Find the Correction factor
CF = (x * x) /N
3: Find the total Sum of Squares for the data
= (xi2) CF

4: add up the totals for each treatment in turn (Xt.), then

calculate Treatment Sum of Squares
SStrt = t(Xt.*Xt.)/r - CF
where Xt. = sum of all values within treatment t, and r is
the number of observations that went into that total.

3: Draw up ANOVA table, getting error terms by subtraction.

 Complete Randomize Design (CRD) @LSD : Least
Significant
Randomize Complete Block Design (RBD) Difference
Latin Square (LQ)
@DMRT:
Duncans New
Multiple Range
Test
Treatments
Replication
Degree of freedom (df)

Elementary statistics 27

Most people have difficulties in determining

whether a model is linear or non-linear.
Before discussing the issues of linear vs. non-
linear systems, let's have a short look at
some examples, displaying several types of
discrimination lines between two classes:
Non-
linear

linear

Elementary statistics 28
 Here's the answer: linear models are linear
in the parameters which have to be
estimated, but not necessarily in the
independent variables.
This explains why the middle of the three
figures above shows a linear discrimination
line between the two classes, although the
line is not linear in the sense of a straight
line.

Elementary statistics 29

When calculating a regression model, we are

interested in a measure of the usefulness of
the model.
There are several ways to do this, one of
them being the coefficient of determination
(also sometimes called goodness of fit).
The concept behind this coefficient is to
calculate the reduction of the error of
prediction when the information provided by
the x values is included in the calculation.

Elementary statistics 30
 Thus the coefficient of determination specifies
the amount of sample variation in y explained
by x.
For simple linear regression the coefficient of
determination is simply the square of the
correlation coefficient between Y and X .

Strong negative Strong positive

Linear relationship Linear relationship

-1 0 No Linear relationship +1
Elementary statistics 31

also called Pearson's product moment

correlation after Karl Pearson is calculated
by

The correlation coefficient may take any value between -1.0 and +1.0.

Assumptions: linear relationship between x and y

continuous random variables
both variables must be normally distributed
x and y must be independent of each other

Elementary statistics 32
 2 test

Elementary statistics 33

2 test
is based on chi-square distribution and as a parametric test
is used for comparing a sample variance to a theoretical
population variance.

where
= variance of the sample;

= variance of the population;

(n 1) = degrees of freedom,
n being the number of items in the sample.
 Elementary statistics 35

E
X
In quality control, there are situations when A
we need to know whether a sample mean lies M
within the confidence limits of the entire P
population. This can be accomplished by L
using t-distribution to determine confidence E
limits for a population mean using a selected
probability.
I
We will use Excel function TINV( ) to determine the t-distribution.

Elementary statistics 36
Ten cans of sliced pineapple were removed at
random from a population of 1000 cans. The
drained weight of the contents were
measured as 410.5, 411.4, 410.4, 412.6,
411.9, 411.5,412.5, 411.4, 411.5, 410.1 g.
Determine the 95% confidence limits for the
entire population.

Elementary statistics 37

We will first calculate the average of the ten

data values using the AVERAGE() function.
Next we will determine the standard
deviation of the sample mean using STDEV()
function. Then we will use the following
expression to estimate the lower and upper
limits of population mean

Elementary statistics 38
 Discussion:
The results show that the 95% confidence lower
and upper limits for the population mean are
410.78 and 411.98, respectively.

Elementary statistics 39

E
X
When a sample is taken from a large
A
population and analyzed for selected DATA,
statistical analysis is helpful in obtaining
M
estimates for the total population from P
which the sample was obtained. In this L
worksheet. E

We will use Excel's built-in data analysis techniques to determine II

various statistical descriptors for the sample and the population.

Elementary statistics 40
Case study : Color Data

A sample of 10 breads is obtained from a

conveyor belt exiting a baking oven. The
breads are analyzed for color by comparing
them with a standard color chart. The values
recorded, in customized color units, are as
follows: 34, 33, 36,37, 31, 32, 38, 33, 34,
and 35. Estimate the mean, variance,
and standard deviation of the population.

Elementary statistics 41

We will use the Data Analysis capability of

Excel in determining the descriptive
statistics for the given data. First, you should
make sure that Data Analysis... is available
under the menu command Tools. If it is not
available, then see Next slide for details on
how to add this analysis package.

Elementary statistics 42
 Click Microsoft Office Button , and Then
Click Excel Options
Click Add-ins. In Manage Box, Select Excel
Add-ins
Click Go
In the Add-Ins Available Box, Select Analysis
ToolPak Check Box and Click OK. (If ToolPak
Is Not Listed, Click Browse to Locate It.)

43

Step 1 Open a new worksheet expanded to full size.

Step 2 In cells A2 :A 11, type the text labels and data values

Elementary statistics 44
Step 3 Choose the menu items Data, Data Analysis ....
A dialog box will open as shown.
Step 4 Double click on Descriptive Statistics.

Elementary statistics 45

Step 5 In the edit box for Input Range:, type the range of
cells as SA$2:$A$11.
Step 6 Select the radio button Columns.
Step 7 In output range type A13. Click OK.
Step 8 Excel will calculate the descriptive statistics and
display results in cells A13:B28

@The results indicate that the

sample mean is 34.3.
@The standard deviation for
the population is 2.214, and
@the sample variance of the
population is 4.9

Elementary statistics 46
t (difference between samples) / (variability)
Excel will automatically calculate t-values to
compare:
Means of two datasets with equal variances
Means of two datasets with unequal variances
Two sets of paired data
abs(t-score) < abs(t-critical): accept H0
Insufficient evidence to prove that observed
differences reflect real, significant differences

47

E
X
A researcher wishes to test whether heavy
A
metal in soil have different mean after war
threat versus before war threat. The heavy
M
metal in soil is that mean after war threat P
will exceed mean before war threat L
E
Use Excel to help test the hypothesis for the difference
in population means. III

Elementary statistics 48
 Step 1 Open a new worksheet expanded to full size.
Step 2 In cells B5 :C19, type the text labels and data values

The null and

hypothesis to be
test are:

Ho : 1 2 0.0
H A : 1 2 0.0

Elementary statistics 49

Step 3 Choose the menu items Tools, Data Analysis ....

A dialog box will open as shown.
Step 4 Double click on t-Test two-sample assuring equal variances.

Elementary statistics 50
 Elementary statistics 51

Change this if you want to know

t > tcritical(one-tail), so the
whether the means of the two
mean of sample #1 is
samples differ by at least some
significantly larger than
specified amount.
the mean of sample #2.

p value for one tailed

test is .003 which is
less than .05 so we
reject the null
hypothesis.

t > tcritical(two-tail), so
the mean of sample #1 p value for Two-tail test is
is significantly .007 which is less than .05 so
different from the mean we reject the null hypothesis.
of sample #2.
Elementary statistics 52
 E
X
In hypothesis testing, it is sometimes not A
possible to use the same judges for testing
M
different treatments. Although, it would be
P
desirable to use the same judges to evaluate
samples obtained from different treatments. L
E
In such cases, we have a completely
randomized design. Using single-factor ANOVA
IV
We can test to see whether the treatments had any influence on the
judges scores; in other words, does the mean of each treatment differ?

Elementary statistics 53

Case study : Weight of oranges Data

Consider a weight of oranges from three
different suppliers A, B, and C .Five oranges
was random sampling and weighted. The
following weights were obtained:

A B C
150 148 146
151 150 148
152 152 150
153 154 152
154 156 154

Elementary statistics 54
For each treatment, 5 samples were weighted by
5 times. Therefore, the design was completely
randomized. Calculate the F value to determine
whether the means of three treatments are
significantly different.

Elementary statistics 55

We will use a single factor analysis of variance

available in Excel. We will determine the F
value at probability of 0.95 .
These computations will allow us to determine
if the means between the three different
treatments are significantly different.
First make sure that the Data Analysis...
Command is available under menu item Data.

Elementary statistics 56
 Step 1 Open a new worksheet expanded to full size.
Step 2 In cells A4 :C8, type the text labels and data values

Elementary statistics 57

Step 3 Choose the menu items Data, Data Analysis ....

A dialog box will open as shown.
Step 4 Double click on Anova Single Factor.

Elementary statistics 58
 The results show that the F value is 0.889. The critical F
values are At the 5% level F = 3.885

This indicates that for the example problem the F value is lower than
the value at the 5% level but not at the 5% level. Thus, we can
say that no significant difference in their mean scores(P<0.05).

Elementary statistics 59

E
X
When we are interested in evaluating samples A
for sensory characteristics using same judges M
with samples obtained from multiple P
treatments, analysis of variance for a two- L
factor design without replication is useful. E
This analysis helps in determining if there are
significant differences among the various V
treatments as well as if an significant
differences exist among the judges themselves.

Elementary statistics 60
 Threetypes of ice cream were evaluated by
11 judges. The judges assigned the following
scores.
Judge Ice Cream A Ice Cream B Ice Cream C
A 16 14 15
B 17 15 17
C 16 16 16
D 18 14 16
E 16 14 14
F 17 16 17
G 18 14 15
H 16 15 16
I 17 14 14
J 18 13 16
K 17 15 15

Elementary statistics 61

We will use the built-in analysis pack

available in the Excel command called Data
Analysis ....
Three sets of results will be obtained for the
5% level

Elementary statistics 62
 Step 1 Open a new worksheet expanded to full size.
Step 2. In cell A3 :D 13, type the text labels and
data values,

Elementary statistics 63

Step 3 Choose the menu items Data, Data Analysis ....

A dialog box will open.
Step 4 Double click on Anova: Two-Factor Without
Replication. A new dialog box will open.
Step 5 Type entries in edit boxes as shown.
Step 6. The results will be displayed in cells

Elementary statistics 64
 The difference
among ice cream
types is determined
by examining the F
values. The F value
is calculated as
For judges, the calculated F value is 19.73. This value is
1.36. This value is lower than the critical greater than 3.49 for
F values of 2.35 at the 5 % level the 5% level

Elementary statistics 65

The difference among ice cream types is

determined by examining the F values. The F
value is calculated as 19.73. This value is
greater than 3.49 for the 5% level,
The ice cream types are significantly
different at p<0.001.
For judges, the calculated F value is 1.36.
This value is lower than the critical F values
of 2.35 at the 5 % level.
The judges showed no significant difference
in their mean scores.

Elementary statistics 66
 E
X
A
Simple regression analysis involves determining
the statistical relationship between two
M
variables. One of the uses of such analysis is in P
predicting one variable on the basis of the L
other. E

We will use the regression analysis available in VI

the Add-in package in Excel to determine linear regression
between two variables.

Elementary statistics 67

Case study : Sensory scores Data

flavor with storage time in a frozen
vegetable. Sensory scores obtained at 0, 1,
2, 3, 4 and 6 month times were 1.5, 2, 2, 3,
2.5, and 3.5, respectively. Assuming that
these data can be linearly correlated,
determine the regression coefficient and
predict the off-flavor score at 5 months of
storage.

Elementary statistics 68
We will use the package Regression available
as an Add-in item in Excel. We will use this
package to obtain required statistical
relationships. We assume that a linear
relationship exists between the off-flavor
score and time (in months) with the equation

y= mx+b,
where
y is off-flavor score, x is time in months, m is slope and
b is intercept.

Elementary statistics 69

Step 1 Open a new worksheet expanded to full size.

Step 2 In cells A4 :B9, enter the text labels and data values

Elementary statistics 70
 Step 3 Choose the menu items Data, Data Analysis .... A dialog box will
open.
Step 4 Double click on Regression.
Step 5 A new dialog box will open. Enter the range of cells for Y and X as
shown. Check boxes for Residuals and Line Fit Plots. Click OK.

Elementary statistics 71

The results will ~99% of the variation in y is explained by

be displayed variation in x. The remainder may be
random error, or may be explained by
some factor other than x.

Probability of
Ratio of variability explained getting this value of
by model to leftover F by randomly
variability. High number sampling from a
means model explains most normally distributed
variation in data. population. Low
value means model
y = 0.31 x + 1.58

(rather than random

variability) explains
most variation in
data.

Probability of getting a slope or intercept this Confidence limits on

much different from zero by randomly sampling
slope and intercept.
from a normally-distributed population.
Elementary statistics 72
 The r 2 value is calculated as 0.85, the
standard error is 0.318.The intercept is 1.5786
and the slope is 0.3143.
The linear equation is y = 0.31x + 1.58 . The
residual output gives the predicted values for
the off-flavor score at different time intervals.
These data are also shown in the chart.
The predicted and calculated values are shown.
The predicted value at 5 months of storage
duration is calculated as 3.13.

Elementary statistics 73

Elementary statistics 74
 75

Statistics
- Descriptive Statistics
- Histograms
- Hypothesis Testing
- Scatter Plots
- Regression Analysis

76
 Click Microsoft Office Button , and Then
Click Excel Options
Click Add-ins. In Manage Box, Select Excel
Add-ins
Click Go
In the Add-Ins Available Box, Select Analysis
ToolPak Check Box and Click OK. (If ToolPak
Is Not Listed, Click Browse to Locate It.)

77

Click Data/Data Analysis (Far Right) /Descriptive

Statistics & OK.
Put Checkmarks on Summary Statistics, 95% or
99% Confidence Interval, & Labels in First Row
Boxes.
Move Cursor to Input Range Window, Highlight
Data to Analyze including Labels, & Click OK.
Your Data will Appear on New Worksheet.
Widen Columns by Clicking Home/Format/AutoFit
Column Width.

78
 Click Data/Data Analysis/Histogram & OK.
Put Checkmarks on Chart Output & New Worksheet
Boxes.
Move Cursor to Input Range Window, Highlight Data
Going into Histogram.
Move Cursor to Input Bin Range, Highlight Data
Showing Upper Value of Each Bin & Click OK.
Histogram will be on New Worksheet. You May
Lengthen it by Clicking Blank Space in Window, Moving
Cursor to Window Bottom Line & Holding Down Mouse
Button as You Pull Down Window.

79

Go to Sheet One.
Click Data/Data Analysis/ and the Appropriate
Statistical Test. Then Click OK.
On New Window Check Labels Box and Put
Cursor on Variable 1 Range.
Highlight Variable 1 Data Including Label.
Put Cursor on Variable 2 Range & Highlight
Variable 2 Data (Including Label). Then Click OK.
Click Home/Format/AutoFit/Column Width

80
 Go to Sheet One.
Highlight Data (Be Sure X Values are in
Left Column and Y Values are in Right
Column).
Click Insert/Scatter. Pull down menu and
click Upper Left Icon.
Click a Datum Point on Chart with Right
Mouse Key, Add Trendline, & Click Linear.

81

Go to Sheet One.
Click Data/Data Analysis (On Far Right)
/Regression & Click OK.
On New Window Check Labels Box and Put
Cursor on X Range.
Highlight X Data Including Label.
Put Cursor on Y Range & Highlight Y Data
(Including Label), Then Click OK.
Click Home/Format/AutoFit Column Width.

82
Elementary statistics 83