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Ge0 statistical
Case Studies
edited by
G. MATHERON
and
M. ARMSTRONG
Centre de Geostatistique,
Fontainebleau, France
D. Reidel Publishing Company
A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP
Dordrecht / Boston / Lancaster / Tokyo
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publi cation Da ta
Geostatistieal case studies.
(Quantitative geology and geosta tisti cs)
Includ es index.
\. Mines and mineral resourcesStatistical methods. 2. Geology
Statistical methods. Matheron , G. (Geo rges) II. Armstrong, M..
1950 Ill. Series_
TN153.G46 1987 662'.1 8631518
ISBN  13: 9789401080187 eISBN :9789400933835
001: 10.1007/9 789400933835
Published by D. Reide l Publishing Company,
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© 1987 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface Vll
J. RIVOIRARD / Computing Variograms on Uranium Data 1
P. CHAUVET / The Comparison Between the Gamma Logs and the Grades
in the Estimation of a Uranium Deposit 23
P. A. DOWD and D. W. MILTON / Geostatistical Estimation of a Section of
the Perseverance Nickel Deposit 39
G. CAPELLO, M. GUARASCIO, A. LIBERTA, L. SALVATO, and G. SANNA /
Multipurpose Geostatistical Modelling of a Bauxite Ore body in
Sardinia 69
L. MOINARD / Application of Kriging to the Mapping of a Reef from
Wireline Logs and Seismic Data; A Case History 93
A. GALLI and G. MEUNIER / Study of a Gas Reservoir Using the External
Drift Method 105
CH. KA VOURINOS / The GradeTonnage Curves for a Zinc Mine in France 121
A. ZAUPA REMACRE / Conditioning by the Panel Grade for Recovery
Estimation of NonHomogeneous Orebodies 135
D. GUIBAL / Recoverable Reserves Estimation at an Australian Gold
Project 149
H. SANS and J. R. BLAISE / Comparing Estimated Uranium Grades with
Production Figures 169
C. DEMANGE, CH. LAJAUNIE, CH. LANTUEJOUL, and 1. RIVOIRARD /
Global Recoverable Reserves: Testing Various Changes of
Support Models on Uranium Data 187
L. DE CHAMBURJ;, CH. DE FOUQUET, and H. FRAISSE / Calculating Ore
Reserves Subject to Mining Constraints, for a Uranium Deposit 209
Index 247
ARMSTRONG . Our objective with this volume is to present a series of innovative applications of geostatistics. Few now doubt its usefulness as a statistical tool in the earth sciences. through detailed studies on geologically complex deposits right up to the latest nonlinear methods applied to deposits with highly skew data distributions. Throughout the volume the accent has been put on how to apply geostatistics in practice. Notation has been kept to a mininmum and mathematical details have been relegated to annexes. to a reputable scientific disci pline which is routinely used in the geosciences. These range from a careful variographic analysis on uranium data. We hope that this will encourage readers to put the more sophis ticated techniques into practice in their own fields. Over the past quarter of a century. Applications of new techniques such as the external drift method for combining well data with seismic information have also been included. In that time geostatis tics has grown from an arcane theory regarded with scepticism by statisticians and miners alike. Matheron) appeared in print in 1962. many geostatistical case studies have been published but the vast majority of these are routine applications of kriging. G. In the mining industry. in particularly. MATHERON M. comparisons between predicted reserve estimates and actual production figures have proved its worth.PREFACE It is now nearly 25 years since the first textbook on geostatistics ("Traitj de gjostatistique appliquje" by G.
PRELIMINARY REMARKS ON COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS Determining the geostatistical structure is often a difficult task.. When no G.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA Jacques RIVOIRARD Centre de Geostatistique ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS 35 rue SaintHonorf. whereas the structure of the translated logarithm proves to be better known.). 122. which also has been considered. the experimental variogram is just a discretised approximation of this integral. 1. © ! <)87 by D .z(x)]2 dx h where z(x) is the regionalised variable. . The first order variogram. Matheron and M. Arm5lrong (eds. S is its field (or a part of its field that is supposed to be homogeneous).<l" ). and Sh is the field translated by h. Geostatis/ira! Case Studies. This turns out to be poorly defined. is curiously similar to the usual variogram. Basically the objective is to estimate the spatial integral: ".. France ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to show how well known the structure is for a particular uranium deposit.((h) 1 2l sns _h l Sns J [z(x+h) . After presenting the average vertical variogram for all the holes. 77305 FONTAINEBLEAU. some of the individual variograms will be studied and we will show the influence of a few very rich holes on the overall variogram. Reidel F/lb/islr il/g Olll. With a regular grid of measurements.
it drops suddenly indicating that both ends of the holes are relatively poor. the veins cannot be studied individually. computing the structure is not always easy. At this stage.2 J. and so the ratio aIm is 3. Each hole intersects a small but variable number of randomly oriented mineralised veins (fig. It increases for the first 8 lags (up to 12 meters). and it can be useful to appreciate how well known the structure is. It is important to note that the radiometry values for waste passes are subject to errors. The waste passes represent 62% of the total length of the holes.5m sample (in order to preserve confidentiality these values have been multiplied by an arbitrary coefficient). some of the individual variograms will be studied and we will show the influence of a few very rich holes on the overall mean variogram. at about 45 meters. 3). The distribution can not be considered as lognormal. while the variance a 2 is 12. RIVOIRARD regular grid exists. drilled in a part of a stockwerk uranium deposit.25 (This is independent of the confidentiality coefficient). then it reaches a sill which drops down slowly a bit further on.78. The objective of this paper is to show how well known the structure is for a particular uranium deposit. 3. The variable under study is the average radiometric grade of each 1. THE CASESTUDY The data come from a regular grid of 37 uncorrelated vertical holes. 2). The mean m is 1. But even in the most favourable cases (e. As there is no correlation between veins from neighbouring holes. The histogram is very skew (fig. the differences between directional variograms can be due to anisotropy (independently from different levels of variability. 2. f the structure are badly known. due to a proportional effect). They are all low but differences between the values are not significant. For example. variograms along drillholes). but they can also be accidental. when holes in several directions are available. 1).g. .10. THE AVERAGE VARIOGRAM AND THE VARIANCES The average variogram looks quite good (fig. After presenting the average vertical variogram for all the holes. The variogram obtained after taking translated logarithms and the first order variogram will also be considered. this orebody has to be estimated as a massive deposit which will be mined in a selective way. for a test of lognormality would only concern 38\ of the values. Then. estimating the structure may be hasardous.
This hole contains one very large value (50. It is therefore very instructive to look at the individual structure of each of these eight holes (it is important to note that their spatial location is not preferential).) of data [i. Clearly. 4). 12. The lack of robustness of the variance to "outliers" is well known.14. 4.e.5m lags from the top and 31 lags from the bottom (see the sample values in the Appendix). the average variogram of the 8 most variable holes is identical to the overall average vertical variogram (fig. if the n = 42 samples of the hole were equal to 0. As can be seen on the scatter diagram (fig.6. from the 11th to 31st points.4) located ten 1. the . So the influence of a given hole on the average variogram depends directly on its variance (and on the number of data.78 to 7. the average of all the 1 pofnts of the variogra~. But above all this figure shows the extreme diversity of the variance values. THE INDIVIDUAL VARIOGRAMS OF THE 8 HOLES The behaviour of some of the individual variograms such as No 3 (fig. J zero lag included. for the first 10 points of the variogram.1. For each hole the average value of 1/2 {z . For the rest of the article the drillholes have been numbered in decreasing order of variability. the holes with the highest variance have a very great influence on the average variogram. 5). In this case the variance drops from 12. It is easy . whereas. In the same way. 6) is typical.90 and 1. some others are still important (18. This shows how imprecisely the sample variance (and hence the sill of the variogram) is known.)2 for all pairs (z. the variance of a hole is roughly related to its mean grade.88) as the most variable hole (or the most variable 2. weighted by the number of pairs] is equal to the sample variance of this hole.57.54 (and then 5.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 3 This variogram is the average of all the individual vertical variograms. Twentyone values are quite small (less than 3). 3. and also between the 31st and 32nd. three are enormous (147.1.4. For example. of course. z. this extreme value is present in 2 pairs. 69 and 61). 10. 3 or 8 holes respectively) are removed. it occurs in only one pair. except the 11th which were equal to 50.6). . which explains the sudden decrease in the variogram between the 10th and 11th points.to see that. except for the value of the sill.8. but this is constant in our case).4. 15.z.
8 and 9) . Of course the most variable hole has the dominant role in the average variogram. COMPOSITION OF THE AVERAGE STRUCTURE Except for the value of the sill (and of the variance). The sudden drop seen in fig. it would be hyperbolic again l(h) = (50. and from the 2nd to the 4th lags on fig. Its structure is rather complex. In addition to the drops caused by the disappearance of these values. have the same general shape (fig. So the distances of the sudden drops (as well as the rate of increases) depend on the position of these values relative to the ends of the hole. before dropping to zero.then. 13 for hole No 4 is also due to the position of the maximum value 25. surrounded by much lower values. It is responsible for the anomally at the 4th lag (due to a hole effect): see fig.9.9 .1)2 /2(nh) the next 22 lags. The hole effect at the 4th lag is due to the difference 57.0.5. 7) would be: . 3 and 14.79.57 . we have seen that the structure is due to the most variable holes. the variogram still shows a reasonable degree of .9 and 11.54 respectively). . which contain some following large values.11.00 and 6. But also. 17. the variogram shows a hole effect at the 3rd lag.94 from the pairs. 5.1)2 /(nh) for the first 10 lags.8. and hole effects) the average variogram has a reasonably well defined sill with a range of about 8 lags. It is most surpr1s1ng to see that.4. Hole No 8 is very interesting (fig.94 . where the difference between the 2 high values (17. Lastly.57. If this hole is removed.4 .4 J. 11. after dropping to half its initial value.4 .hyperbolic l(h) = (50. The hole effects at the 24th and 10th lags are due to differences between relatively large values (25. and then 9.8) reduces their enormous influence on the variogram. There are 2 rich samples.42. Each of these drops is followed by several decreases due to the rich neighbouring samples.46 . RIVOIRARD variogram (fig. 3 lags apart. both of the most sudden drops are due to the disappearance of the value 57. Holes Nos 7 and 5 show the same type of behaviour for similar reasons (hole effects at the 11th lag on fig.46.67 . Nevertheless.0. in spite of the chaotic individual variograms (increases interrupted by sudden drops. 14) contains a lot of rich samples. Drillholes Nos 6 and 2. hole No 1 (fig. 10). the succession of these large values is responsible for the continuity given by the first points of the variogram. 12).
even after the three most variable holes have been removed. This result is very interesting. Care has then to be taken not to amplify small differences between low values. which a gaussian anamorphosis would also do. This danger can be avoided with the translated logarithm: log(n+z). So the extremities are not without mineralisation (in which case they should have been eliminated). 1984). for instance the first order variogram: '( 1 (h) = . INFLUENCE OF THE RICHEST SAMPLES AND HOLES In cases like this it is the richest samples that can make an orebody payable. We have seen that it is not very stable. 9. Another way to reduce the influence of the high values without eliminating them is to take logarithms. which is mainly due to hole No 2 (see fig. This shows how instable second order statistics such as the variogram and the variance. 1986). As they are not preferentialy located. But the influence of a few holes can be so high. that a real knowledge of the structure can be based only on their stability..COMPUTING V ARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 5 continuity. It suggests testing other related estimators of spatial structure. which effectively can give excellent results for grades distributions in cases like this (Lantuejoul and al. removing the extreme values because they would perturb the variogram could be dangerous because the residual structure is likely to be meaningless. 18). 19).. 15 and 16) . for it is a good indication for the mosaic model (Matheron. and the similarity is so high that the ratio of these two variograms is nearly constant (fig. This is because the extremities of the holes are relatively poor. This is the only way to interpret the evolution of the average variogram. 6. The most stable element is undoubtly the permanence of a sill between the 10th and 30th lags. The sudden drop for large values of h is still evident. as the richest holes are removed. but this is not as rich as in the 8 holes. But this decrease disappears after the 8 most variable holes have been removed (fig. are. 2!SOS_h! J ! z (x+h) . the translation constant .z (x)! dx SoS h Unfortunately this turns out to be just as unstable as the ordinary variogram.
CONCLUSION The average structure of the raw variable was computed on 37 vertical holes. We do not intend to assume that the data are lognormally distributed.10. Although non linear transformations can be useful for understanding the structure of such deposits. The structure of the translated log is more stable.5 = 63 meters long. the classical variogram. and Rivoirard J. but they are smoother (compare fig. Reidel ed. So variograms of the logs can be used to make comparisons of structure and then to evaluate anisotropies. (1984). in deposits like this. RIVOIRARD a depending roughly on the size order of the values (for instance their mean m). and so 10g(1+z) has been taken. But this still does not enable us to come back to the raw structure (which would require strong hypotheses concerning the bivariate distributions). REFERENCES Lantuejoul Ch. Matheron G. Here m equals 1. (1986). . we merely use the lognormal transformation to highlight the structure of the variogram. 9 and 21 . 1984. estimated by one or another way. Nov.6 J. 7. is still needed to compute the dispersion variances of selection supports. 14 and 20. the variations of the logarithms of the grades are usually more significant on average than for the raw variable. Global recoverable reserves: comparing various changes of support on uranium data. The point of using logs is that. Changement de support en modele mosaique. The average structure of logs is more stable than that of the raw variables: fig. each 42 x 1.. 6 and 22). Lajaunie Ch. It appears to be poorly defined. The individual variograms of the logs do not show a better structure. No 20. and thus better known. It is easy to imagine the errors that can be made (specially on possible anisotropies) when comparing for instance this structure to the one deduced from some horizontal holes. Sciences de la Terre. 23 to 28.
COMPUTING V ARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 7 o 10 40 5 10 15 20 25 Fig. 1 Radiometric grades down a drillhole. .
5. 10.0 0. ALL 15.6 0.1I 0.0 0.8 0. 2 Inverse cumulative histogram.7 0. or proportion of values above a cutoff. 3 Average variogram.0 5. RIVOIRARD 1.0 Fig.0 10.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 0. 20. Fig. .0 0.3 0. 15.8 1.0 0.
8+ 60.COMPUTING V ARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM OAT A 9 150 variance 1 1 1 4 1 B 7 5 3 mean o 0.0 20.5 Fig. 4 Scatter diagram: variance and mean of the samples for each hole. 5 Variogram of holes Nos 1 to 8.0 '!0.0 30.0 Fig. .0 50.0 10.0 0.0 0.
.0 0. 1I 100. RIVOIRARD 3 100.0 Fig.0 0. 75. 6 Variogram for hole No 3 .10 J.0 50.0 0.7 Variogram of a hole containing a single rich value.0 25.0 0.0 Fig. 75. .0 50.0 25.
9 Variogram for hole No 2.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0. 8 Variogram for hole No 6. .0 50.0 100.0 5.0 Fig.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 11 6 25.0 0.0 25.0 Fig. 2 125. 75.0 15.0 20.
0 0. 10 Variograrn for hole No 8.0 5. 11 Variograrn for hole No 7.0 15.0 Fig.0 0.0 10.0 Fig.0 5.12 J. .0 0.0 0.0 10. RIVOIRARD 8 15. 7 20.
l.0 0.0 0. 12 Variogram for hole No 5. .0 20.0 Fig.0 10.0 20.0 !  10.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 13 5 30.0 0. 13 Variogram for hole No 4.0 0.0 Fig.0 30.I0.
15 Variogram for all holes except No 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.14 J.0 lI. 100.0 0.0 7.0 6. RIVOIRARD 200.0 Fig. 14 Variogram for hole No 1.0 2. 1 9.0 0.0 8. . 150. 50.0 3.0 Fig.
0 3.0 1.COMPUTING V ARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 15 2 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Fig.0 6.0 3. 17 Variogram for all holes except Nos 1 to 3.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.1. 16 Variogram for all holes except Nos 1 and 2.1. 3 1.0 Fig.0 0.0 2. .
19a Average firstorder variogram.B 1.0 0.9 B.8 B.~ B.6 B. RIVOIRARD 8 2. 18 Variogram for all holes except Nos 1 to 8.5 B.5 1.5 B. B B.2 B.7 B.l B.16 1.B B. 10RO 1.B Fig. .B Fig. B B.3 B.5 2.
0 5.0 0. . 20 Hole No 1: variogram for the translated logs.5 1.0 0.0 Fig. 19b Ratio between 2nd and 1st order variograms. lL 2.5 0.0 1.0 0.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM OAT A 17 2/10RD 15.0 Fig.0 0.
0 Fig.9 9.5 1. .1 0.2 0.5 9.9 9. 21 Hole No 2: variogram for the translated logs. RIVOIRARD 2L 1.7 9.9 9. 3L 0.9 0.5 0.B 0. 22 Hole No 3: variogram for the translated logs.3 0.0 Fig.18 1.Q 0.6 0.
ALL L 0.0 Fig.3 0.04 variance 2 1 1 1 11 2 1 1 1 11 lneBin o 0.1 0.2 0.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 19 0. 24 Average variogram of the translated logs for all 37 holes. 23 Scatter diagram: variance and mean of the translated logs of the samples for each hole .0 0. .3 Fig .
20 J.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0. 26 Variogram of the translated logs for all holes except ~os 1 and 2.0 0. 25 Variogram of the translated logs for all holes except No 1. RIVOJRARD lL 0.1 0. 2L 0.3 0.0 Fig.0 Fig. .
8L 0.0 Fig. 27 Variogram of the translated logs for all holes except Nos 1 to 3.15 0.10 0. 28 Variogram of the translated logs for all holes except Nos 1 to 8. .05 Fig.COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS ON URANIUM DATA 21 3L 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.20 0.2 0.
12 0 . 0 . 12 0 .98 0. 08 0 . 16 11 . 09 0. 10 0 . 2 0 0 . 1 . 89 1. 1 5 2 . 16 0 . 17 9 .09 0 . 17 0 .08 0 . 10 9. 15 0. 17 0 . 71 0 . 5 8 0 . 09 0 . 15 9 . 16 0 . 17 0 .1 2 0 .14 0 . 16 10 . 20 0 . 81 0 . 17 0 . 59 0. 08 l. 22 4. 17 0 . 56 4 . 1 6 1 . 10 0 . 09 0 . 34 1 .16 0 . 27 2.30 11. 47 0. 53 0 . 4 3 0 . 08 0 . 74 0. 96 O. 19 l. 17 0 . 49 0. 73 1.09 1 1. RIVOIRARD APPENDIX: Sample values of holes Nos 1 to 8.0 8 l. 10 0 .19 0 . 08 O.67 0 . 79 0 .09 0 . 45 26 . 10 0. 08 0 . 0 4 12 . 26 3 .72 1 . 20 18 .88 6 . 68 5 .09 0 .17 0 .05 0 . 09 0. 15 12.2 1 0 . 13 0 . 67 1 . 08 0 . 10 0 . 79 0 . 54 0 . 17 0. 08 0. 10 0 . 99 3 . 08 9. 98 17 .20 0 . 16 1 . 15 0.33 0 .4 8 5 . 94 0 . 08 1. 53 0. 15 0 . 18 1 . 97 5 . 67 23. 15 0 . 10 0 .5. 23 2 .0 9 0 . 59 0.08 0 . 33 0 . 15 0 . 16 0 . 15 0 . 50 18. 41 0 . 09 1. 16 0. 53 0 . 15 3 . 61 1.30 2 . 16 57. 12 0 . 82 0 .:> O.82 0 .79 4 . 77 0.26 0 . 09 0. 16 24 . 05 2 . 37 3 . 09 0 . 3 2 0 .1 7 0 .09 0. 98 0 . 12 2. 15 0 . 20 0 . 17 0 . 17 l. 17 0 .08 5 . 16 .57 1 .19 0 .21 12 . 43 0 .98 0. 15 0 . 83 0 . 12 0 .08 0. 08 l.62 0 . 68 0. 12 0. 08 0 .12 0 .08 6 . 42 0 . 08 0.26 0.17 0 . 09 0 .14 3 . :'10 8 0 . 60 0. 52 0. 19 0 . 12 0 . 28 0 . 40 0 . 72 0.82 0 . 12 0. 10 5. 00 1. 16 26 . 25 3 . 52 0 . 23 0. 66 2 . 16 42 . 16 5 . 93 1. 08 1 . 16 0 . 31 0 . 63 0 .82 0 . 09 0 . 57 0 .1 0 0 . 09 0 .12 0 . 82 0 . 15 l.28 0. 09 0 . 08 3 . 08 0 . 64 0.94 0. 46 19 . 23 1 1. 04 0 . 72 0. 10 5 . 09 0 . 16 1. 10 0 . 15 0 . 12 0 . 16 2 . 32 0 . 1 6 0. 08 0 .95 0 . 15 0. 96 0 . 3 6 1 1 . 43 4 . 17 0 . 16 20 . 10 1 . 08 0 . 12 0 .35 2. 12 0. 89 38. 62 0. 33 27 . 19 0 . 17 0 .1 5 0 . 8 8 3 . 00 6 .1 0 0 .13 0 . 12 0. 42 l. 56 1 . 17 0. 23 9 .42 1.17 4 . No 1 No 3 No 4 No 5 No 6 No . 04 0 . 7 3 7 .1 7 0 . 17 0 .24 50 . 62 1. 08 0 .17 0 . 04 0 . 10 0 . 35 0 . 53 0.65 0 . 15 2. 13 l. 69 0 . 15 10 . 55 0 . 58 0 . 16 22 . 16 1 . 16 0. 15 0. 57 0 . 31 0. 14 0.1 2 0. 94 0. 1 1 0.12 0 . 12 0 . 25 0 . 08 0 . 16 0 .4 8 0 . 09 0 . 56 0 .. 94 0 . 08 l. 76 0. 54 0 . 69 3 . 57 0 . 86 0 . 1 6 1 . 92 0 . 17 0 . 46 1 . 66 0.07 0 . 8 4 12 . 10 4 . 17 0.22 J. 52 1 . 12 0. 12 0 . 17 0 . 07 6 . 15 0 .93 0 . 30 0. 23 12 . 10 0 . 10 0 . 16 5 . 16 0 . 16 l.14 1 .51 0 . 81 0.4 8 0 .51 0. 52 5 . 09 CJ . 82 5 . 10 0.1 7 0 . 12 0 . 74 20 . 10 0. 56 25 . 36 1 . 08 (3 . 10 5 . 59 0 . 06 0 . 96 0. 08 3 .31 0. 10 6. 16 3 .
). Geostatistical Case Studies. Reidel Publishillg Compa"y. This example shows the importance of a quantity which has no physical meaning: the kriged block average of the gamma logs. we were able to study the gamma log to grade transformation. .THE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GAMMA LOGS AND THE GRADES IN THE ESTIMATION OF A URANIUM DEPOSIT Pierre CHAUVET Centre de Geostatistique. Matheron and M.How is the 'correlation between the gamma logs and the grades affected by the size of the support and by kriging? 23 G. 77305 FONTAINEBLEAU.At which stage in a geostatistical casestudy should the transformation be made? . 2337. France. 35 rue SaintHonore. 1. Armstrong (eds. it was not possible to establish a general rule as to when to perform the gamma log grade transformation. © l <Nil by D . INTRODUCTION During one particular casestudy on a sedimentary uranium deposit where an unusually high proportion of drillholes had been chemically analysed as well as gamma logged. ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS. Our aim here is to present a few observations made during the study. The emphasis will be placed on answering two questions which are not unrelated: . Even though the conditions in this study are exceptionally favourable. ABSTRACT This casestudy presents two independent estimates of the grades and the gamma logs for a uranium deposit. The gradegamma log scatter diagram for the samples is compared to that obtained for the kriged block estimates.
The differences observed are due to both the change of support (passing from metric variables to much larger blocks) and the smoothing caused by the estimation process (kriging). by means of a correlation curve. Available data We have approximately 1 600 samples of one metre gamma log measures. . the elementary statistics and the gamma loggrade correlation over kriged blocks can be compared with the corresponding results obtained on one metre samples. 2. 2. Among these 1 600 samples. from their gamma logs were very favourable. Gamma loggrade correlation for kriged blocks Afterwards. So the conditions for recons tituting the grades of samples not chemically analysed. 2.3. In contrast to this. the mean grade value estimated over a block has a physical meaning.CHAUVET It lS important to note that the conditions for the study are exceptionally good. it was possible to respect the local statistics (the drillhole averages). Reconstructing the missing grades One aproach is to assign a grade value to the nonanalysed samples.24 P.1.4. 2. These reconstructed values will later on serve as the basis for a grade estimation. but the initial values used in kriging are the result of a preliminary mathematical manipulation. For example. these analysed samples correspond to the supposedly rich areas. THE STEPS OF THE STUDY 2. Two parallel estimations The gamma logs and the grades can then be kriged independently at the same time. The geometric conditions are exactly the same. It is clear that it will be difficult to apply the remarks made here to other cases where the percentage of drillholes cored and analysed is much lower. about 500 were chemically analysed and so it is possible to calculate the gamma loggrade correlation. but the final result (kriged gamma logs for blocks) has no physical meaning. As always happens in such cases. All of the drillholes had been at least partially chemically analysed. The initial gamma log values are real measures. where the radio gamma logs are then disregarded.2. and the bias in the correlation may be quite important.
RECONSTRUCTION OF VALUES 3. the histograms of the sampled variables are difficult to present graphically. we work on variables (grades) with a clear physical meaning.10 180% Gamma log analysed (500) 3 500 12. But the obvious disadvantage is that. Elementary statistics Because they have a very strong zero effect and a very long distribution tail. since we want to reconstruct 1 100 samples (70% of the total number). should the transformation be unsatisfactory.2. Second problem: although the correlation coefficient is 0. . One drawback for the reconstruction is immediately noticeable: the subpopulation available for the regression reconstruction is statistically different (bimodal) from the population to be used for the gamma log estimation. Problem raised We can choose to transform the sample gamma log values into grade values from the outset. and the 500 grade samples. the 500 analysed samples. mostly low values. Using such a method is hazardous.ON THE ESTIMATION OF A URANIUM DEPOSIT 25 3.00 125% TABLE 1. The advantage of this lies in that all along the study. the study must be done all over again.10 100% Grades (500) 2. for which the scatter diagram of Figure 1 will have to be extrapolated toward these low values. A linear regression seems both unstable and unsuitable. the gamma log scatter diagram (Figure 1) is barely usable.87. It is rather diffuse. Means and variances of data.91 13. and above all it shows a concavity towards the high grade values. Hence we can only summarize statistics through the respective means and variances of the 1 600 gamma logged samples.1. We obtain: m 0 2 o 1m Total gamma log (1 600) 1 700 9. 3.
could not be properly performed. The same reconstructed values will be analysed structurally and kriged. Thus the logarithmic mean is locally preserved (i. all samples with low grades and low gamma logs located at the bottom of the figure can be regarded as meaningless. so that the mean value (algebraic this time) is locally reconstructed. The recons truction formula of the value of a one metre sample was: Log C =c + 1.26 P. this looks more linear than on Figure 1. Taking the logarithms This operation. It is difficult to show their ~ histograms for the reasons described in the previous section.2. for each drill hole).83) of the logarithmic scatter diagram (Figure 2) is no better than before.3. the histograms of the logarithms are not normally distributed for either the gamma logs or for the grades.10 (Log R . but this time we can be sure that no reconstructed value will be negative. These values have a mean at 1. common in uranium processing.35. In fact. and a relative standard variation of 195%. This method . and therefore economically negligible. the future grade structural analysis is entirely biased: kriging. Least square fitting led to a regression line with slope 1. should not deceive anyone: the sampling problems described above still remain.which draws the attention to the drawbacks of the sampling method . However. The respective histograms of the gamma logs and the . Moreover. conditional simulation. The criticisms made in Section 3. 3. the calculation of this regression applied to the whole 1 600 radioactivity samples led to a high percentage (46%) of reconstructed negative grades. The correlation coefficient (0. after examining the data.e. Besides. r) where C is the reconstructed value R is the gamma log of the sample considered C and r are the respective means of the grades and gamma logs available on the analysed samples. The fact that this value is higher than 1 ensures that the concavity on Figure will be taken into account. Even if the unsatisfactory values are low. a variance of 7. nothing justifies the systematic application of the theoretical formulae derived for the lognormal in this case. The process ends by scaling the values drillhole by drill hole.10.cannot be used here. and all the more.CHAUVET In fact. The extremely favourable conditions of this study obviously make it possible to assess a value for c and r on each drillhole. although still diffuse. also apply here.
In this study. even in logarithms. Note: Studying one of the two variables would be enough. in more than two thirds of the cases.1. we should work on algebraic values instead of logarithms. The two variables are nonlinearly related. It is then obvious that modelling the distributions is hazardous. since these values result from an extrapolation process.ON THE ESTIMATION OF A URANIUM DEPOSIT 27 reconstructed values for the whole 1 600 samples are given on Figures 3 and 4. and would generate unacceptable border effects. Of course. PARALLEL ESTIMATIONS 4. The logarithms of the gamma logs and the reconstructed values are linearly related. The structural analyses would be identical (up to a multiplicative factor) and the kriging weights would be the same. these histograms are bimodal. working on untransformed values necessitates two parallel studies. in extrapolation towards the low values. these two populations appear to be mixed in space. The high value population is almost exclusively composed of reconstructed values. this would create difficulties. should we decide to krige the logarithms. 4. so we cannot separate them and work only on the high values. . This draws our attention all the more to the sampling problems. It can be noted that. kriging the logarithms would raise the problem of converting the final results back to the natural scale. it must be concluded that it is a fundamental property of the deposit. the gamma loggrade transformation formula has been used. since this bimodality appears even· more clearly on the 1 600 gamma log values. One might wonder whether this bimodality is an artefact due to the transformation process where the values are concerned. Preliminary remarks Because of the existence of two populations with different statistical characteristics. the spatial structure of the lowvalue reconstructed grades cannot be expected to be very accurate. Besides. Since the variables are obviously not lognormal. On the other hand. If we do not want the low values to have too strong an influence on the structural analysis. more care has to be taken in structural analysis and kriging. and no theoretical formula exists that would allow us to deduce one kriging from the other without important simplifying and additional hypotheses. since this would cause the geometry of the domain under study to become chaotic. In the example studied here. But.
25 and 50 m. 61. Elementary statistics The results for the 380 kriged blocks are summed up below: m 02 olm Gamma log 3 200 0<2.4%).28 P. The kriged units are 10 x 20 x 5 m blocks (this last dimension along the vertical. care was taken to avoid local overestimates at the deposit's edge. The ranges for the gamma log models are 5.3.56 0<1. (It should be remembered that these last 7 numbers would have been identical to the previous 7 ones if the variables had been linearly related). the same type of anisotropy is taken for both variables.2 0<43% Table 2. GAMMA LOGGRADE CORRELATION OF KRIGED BLOCKS 5.6%). a sum of three spherical models.7. The kriging neighbourhood was large: up to 11 kriging weights (which is a lot) representing up to 75 data (which is enormous). Lastly. 5. the two approaches are independent. Structural analyses and kriging The geometrical conditions of the study are strictly identical for both variables. In a 3D model. and 25. As an example.CHAUVET 4.9. The decrease of the mean value (gamma log 8%.2% (nugget effect: 8. Note that we have 1 m data). Except for that. due .45. grade 12%) with respect to the sample statistics given in Table 2 is mainly due to the edge effect. plus a nugget effect was proposed for the two vertical variograms. 18 and 40 m. Except for that.1.210 0<46% Grade 2. but this is also more the evidence of a problem in describing the geometry of the deposit.3 and 3. But we should take into account the small size of the kriging units with regard to the sampling mesh: the number of kriging weights actually used is obviously smaller than 11.2. with distributions corresponding to the overall variance of 26. The corresponding results fo~ the grades are: 3. The change in the size of the variances.2% (nugget effect: 8. 380 blocks were estimated. than of a fundamental similarity in the structure of the two variables.1 and 21. both krigings were easily performed.
In any uranium deposit. since the kriging unit is small with respect to the sampling mesh. This is particularly true for the proposed example. although the latter is. these quantities possess a double advantage: 1) They are easily obtained.2. A linear regression model is this time quite applicable. These are just the results of a specific calculation process applied to gamma log values actually measured on the field.98) is exceptional. as a rule. is more usual: the gamma log variance is divided by 5. that is the estimated block value. Consequences on the gamma loggrade correlation Figure 7 is less classic than the two preceding ones.5. and their skewness is barely noticeable. 5. The smoothing . Figure 6 for the grades) clearly show this twofold effect. a simple rule of proportionality between estimated block grades and gamma logs could be used. The correlation coefficient (0. The scatter diagram between the estimated gamma logs and the estimated grades has been constructed for the 380 kriged blocks. Note that while the kriged values possess a clear physical meaning. Although they only represent intermediate calculations. Comparing these figures demonstrates once more how dangerous it would be to confuse samples and selection units. the most important data are of course the gamma log values. The histograms (Figure 5 for the kriged gamma logs. Undoubtedly. CONCLUSIONS 1) The remarkable homogenization by kriging of two sample populations shows that there would be no sense in using the present results to simulate an accurate selection. is spectacular. or quite uncertain due to the grade reconstruc tion process. but is not diffuse as in Figure 1. the "gamma log blocks" do not. and the grade variance by 11. either inaccessible directly because of the lack of grade values. Moreover the scatter diagram is considerably extended. This second point is possibly the newest aspect of this study. 6. Both histograms are unimodal. The comparison with Figures 3 and 4 for the sample logarithm.ON THE ESTIMATION OF A URANIUM DEPOSIT 29 to both the support effect and the smoothing effect of kriging. 2) They are remarkably well correlated with the economic ally worthwhile quantity.
Emphasis should be laid again on the necessity of analysing the samples or drillholes in poor zones. To conclude.30 P. the smoothing effect of kriging would be excessive. using grades actually estimated. the results obtained on already exploited areas could be used to model this correlation on other zones. This would avoid working on erroneous quantities difficult to be taken into account. if the blocks are bigger. the previous remarks suggest that whenever possible. So the results should be completed by examining the kriging variance. we should attempt to generalize the approach presented in this study. the correlation between gamma logs and grades should be excellent. We will just be able to predict that for the kriged blocks. 2) In practice. and therefore easier to make. done once and for all. If such were the case. For large deposits however. However. It is safer because the correlation is much better more economical since it is not necessary to start the structural analysiskriging process allover again to apply it. It will be all the better. it will generally not be possible to make a good estimate of the values. we may wish to have the opportunity of completing the observations of this study on other orebodies . due to the lack of information. care should be taken not to use too rough a kriging. CHAUVET effect on the estimated blocks located farthest from the data is probably exaggerated. 3) This last remark leads to parametrization. various grade estimations can be proposed. although there is no way of knowing i t. This method would be safer and more economical than periodically updating the correlation between samples . and Figure 7 would only show the remarkable correlation of two artefacts! 5) The question of when to reconstruct the grades has not been answered. But in the case of very skew distributions. 6) Obviously the correlation for kriged blocks essentially depends on the block size. and thereby lead to questioning the whole study. 4) Another advantage of this "linearization" is to avoid taking the logarithms. The only ·psychological" obstacle left would be to have to work on "gamma log deposits". It would be most interesting to elaborate a methodology that would allow the gamma loggrade transformation to be performed as the last step of the study. . according to the parameters describing the correlation. Starting from gamma log kriging.
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 C .323113E""'" * .IUlI.7589£83 .. ..* . . VARIANCE RESJOUELLE ..1£"98. . .l .. . * . 1 " • 1 2 7 I I • 7 "2 H. . 0f100NHEE OAIDINE .." "o [/) 1 ::] 1 1 1 2 1 I 3 1 1 1 1 I I I I " 1 I 22 " I 2 1 "2 • 7 .J Figure 7 . . DE X * A I U * . ECHELLE AXE HORllONTAL .89"8"E""I (5 Z o . ET U ::t VAH 1 ABLE t10YEHNE * .25588£""1 * .."'''''8£+82 §:: U I A * .1289£·08 ** ). Of CORRElRT 1 ON . 2UU6E+B7 . .I .1.. . .. VALEUR Y POUR XBOHNE INF. . . . . lSBSSE. .12811£"81 .* [/) I REQAESSION Y/X rENTE .98 385 tTl U . ..1. tTl R . ..80 '' . z c: ~ 1 2 tTl . 1 28SE+el. . . VARIRNCE 1t COEF. . j. .1688"E+83 ECHELLE AXE VERTICAL .."5 * .8088"£.0 ).: . . 1 3 S 1 2 3 " 3 31B 1 I I " I • 8"8. ..  ~ e:":.77"'88£.OB I . " 5 2 1 5 I I I I 5 2 I 7• 1 2 8" I.5292£01 . .ISf+S2 . HOMBRE DE COUPLES ." ).1288£+B9.l.... oZ I ETUDE DE CO"AELAT I ON ENTRE . .
and D. The University of Leeds. Armstrong (eds. Variogram models are validated by the back estimation technique. Pty. U. kriging. Geostatistical Case Studies.K. 3967. © 1<J87 by D. .). Matheron and M. Reidel Publish ing Compuny. Geostatistical estimates of reserves and ore body shape are compared with the known orebody in a mined area. 39 G. spline surface. Milton Resident Geologist. GEOST A TISTICAL ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT P. now Senior Mine Geologist. Dowd Senior Lecturer and Consultant Geostatistician Department of Mining and Mineral Engineering. BP Minerals Australia. nickel. Adelaide ABSTRACT This is a case study illustrating the application of geostatistics to a veintype nickel deposit. Various drilling densities are evaluated. Ltd. Data are defined in relation to the structural aspects of the geology of the deposit and variograms are calculated for thickness and nickel accumulation.W. A shape preserving spline surface is fitted to the midpoints of drill hole intersections with the orebody and this surface is used to control sUbsequent estimation. thickness.A. global reserves are calculated and orebody shape and location are estimated on various horizontal planes. vein. Agnew Mining Co. Keywords: accumulation.
The KiethKilkenny Lineament. specific gravity and tonnage values have been multiplied by factors. contained within a steeply westdipping sequence of amphibolite grade.1 The Orebody The Perserverance nickel orebody consists of two styles of nickel sulphide mineralisation associated with Archaean ultramafic rocks. disseminated mineralisation (Figure 1). very abrupt changes in thickness and grade can occur. has been a major contributor to brittle deformation within the orebodies and their environs. regionally extensive. northerly plunging synform which is intruded by latestage granitic. A sheetlike. ultramafic unit.3 Stope district where cut and fill mining of the lA massive sulphide has taken place was undertaken. INTRODUCTION This is a case study illustrating the application of geostatistics to a veintype nickel deposi t. locally known as the Perserverance Fault. passes about 800 metres to the east and parallel to the strike of the ultramafic.40 P. Consequently. ii) to define an optimal drilling density. The fault forms the eastern boundary of a shallow. MILTON 1. massive sulphide. a regional fault. contributes a major portion of the nickel production at the Agnew Nickel Mine. W. It is considered to have been deposited at the base of a thin lavalike flow and has some irregularities in thickness. conformable with the metasediments extends several kilometres north from the steeply southplunging. referred to as the lA. This fault. vein style. pegmatitic and dolerite rocks. The massive sulphide. this renders meaningless and economic inference or interpretation of the results. folding and faulting. A. all grade. The objectives of the study were: i) to determine global ore reserves within the study area. This disseminated mineralisation lays on the northwest flank of the locally swollen. A detailed study of the No. To preserve confidentiality. DOWD AND D. 1. The sulphides have been "re distributed" by the effects of high temperature metamorphism. In such applications geological structure and structurally controlled estimation are of overriding importance. Figure 2 illustrates the variability of the vein. Detailed mapping and sampling of each face was available along with a wide spaced pattern of diamond drill core information. . metamorphosed sediments and volcanic rocks.
ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OFTHE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 41 FIGURE 1 .
Thickness estimates are used to estimate the locations of the footwall and hangingwall of the orebody as well as the contained tonnage. Grade estimates can be obtained in an approximate manner by dividing the estimated accumulation by the estimated thickness.2 Variables Used In the Study The major problem in this study is not to predict grade values but to estimate the location and shape of the orebody. W. 3 STOPE 1394 L IFT LEGENO • MASSIVE SULPHIDE I M$U I E3 SERPENTINITE AfTER OUNITE WOS} Q METASEOIMENT FIGURE 2 1. In other words. The variables used are ore body width (or thickness) at recorded locations and grade accumulation (grade of intersection x width of intersection) at recorded locations. A. Note that this is an approximation and that grade estimates can be obtained in this manner only under certain restrictive conditions. MILTON iii) to provide estimates of orebody shape and location suitable for planning purposes and to compare these estimates with the known orebody in the mined area. DOWD AND D. the relationship: accumulation grade = thickness .42 P.
these conditions are only important for individual block values. For consistent grade estimates the second condition must be met: it is essential that exactly the same samples are used for a given thickness estimate and the corresponding accumulation estimate. The solution adopted in this study was to set missing grade values equal to the average grade of all recorded nickel samples (7. In practice. Although all estimated accumulations and all estimated thicknesses will lie within the range of the observed minimum and maximum values. The simplest measure is to eliminate all intersections which do not have both grade and width values recorded.03% Ni). the only areas in which the first condition is not met are those in which thicknesses are estimated to be signi ficantly less than 1 metre. this does not imply that all estimated grade values will lie between the observed minimum and maximum grades. this would remove approximately fifty thickness values from the data set and give less reliable estimates of width and location of footwall and hangingwall. In addition. However.3 Data For this study all intersections were converted to eastwest horizontal widths and width was defined as the intersection across the . In this study. many samples have two or more orebody intersections with only one intersection sampled. ideally. As some recorded locations have been measured but not sampled this requirement will not be met automatically and some modification is necessary. There are very few estimates for which this is necessary and in any case thicknesses of this order are less than any practical mineable width. Variogram models for accumulation were verified with and without this modification.ESTIMATION OF A SECfION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 43 which holds for the data does not necessarily hold for estimated values. estimated accumulation estimated grade = estimated thickness The most important of the restrictive conditions under which the relationship for estimated grades can be accepted are: thickness estimates are sufficiently accurate (relative error less than 1. significantly less than 1) accumulation and thickness estimates are made from the same data configuration. An anomaly may occur in the range of estimated grade values. thickness variogram models and estimations are unaffected by the modification. 1. In these cases the estimated grade is set equal to the estimated accumulation.
An alternative method is to include all total intersections (e. DOWD AND D . estimate the footwall and hangingwall locations and then estimate grade inside the estimated boundaries using equal size. AD) without applying the carry principle. either AB and CD together must be of sufficient grade to carry BC or AB and CD individually must be of sufficient grade to carry BC. described in Dowd and Scott (1986).g. depending on how the criterion is applied. in the latter case. For example. o MASSiVE SULPHIOE o Ul. there is a certain amount of internal waste as shown in the plan sketch in Figure 3. east west borizontal widths using the formula: . A. allows internal waste to be discriminated. Although the footwall and hangingwall of the orebody are sharply defined geological contacts. W. and Dowd (1986). MILTON total orebody.TRAMAFIC ROcKIWASTE' L:J MET ASEDIMEN TS FIGURE 3 In such cases accumulations can be based on minimum mineable widths and on a "carry" principle whereby internal waste is included as part of the orebody if ore on either side of it is of sufficient grade to carry the total intersection above a specified cutoff value. in Figure 3. the better of AB and CD is selected if BC cannot be carried. this method.44 P. Hole intersection lengths were converted to equivalent. composited core grades and the corresponding variogram model.
cjJ )cos y I C = H* Sin 8 where: C is converted eastwest horizontal width H is original orebody intersection width 8 is the orebody dip direction measured clockwise from north (e.: i) BOoW is specified as dip direction 270 0 dip 80 0 ii) BooE is specified as dip direction 90 0 dip 80 0 cjJ is the bearing of the drill hole measured clockwise from north y dip of the drill hole specified using the same convention as the orebody dip i. statistics are summarised in Table 1.e. a hole with a bearing of 90 0 (i. Statistics of these nickel grades are presented solely for interest. As all the volumes are different (samples taken over di fferent lengths) statistics other than the mean have no real meaning (statistics should all relate to samples taken over the same volume).0% to 11.4 Statistics The nickel grades of the ore body intersections are average grades of the volumes of material contained in each sample.62% Table 1 Statistics of nickel grades of orebody intersections .e.30% median 7.78% variance range of values: 0. direction is assumed to be downwards. For example.g. Total number of samples 310 mean 7.g.ESTIMATION OF A SECfION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 45 Isin y cot an Bcos( 8 . A histogram of the nickel grades (excluding all missing values set equal to the average sample grade) of the eastwest horizontal widths is shown in Figure 4. due east) and a dip of +10 0 (indicating a hole drilled upwards) is specified as cjJ 270 0 (90 0 + 180 0 ) y = 10 0 A hole with a bearing of 90 0 and a dip of 10 0 (indicating a hole drilled downwards) is specified as: cjJ = 90 0 y = 10 0 1. west is 270 0 ) B is the orebody dip e.
DOWD AND D. W. A. 40 30 20 '0 NICKEL GRADE FIGUR E 4 : Histog ram of Nickel Grades of orebod y interse ctions r l 40 t  I 30 rr l 20 t r '0 l. t .ontal interse ction widths shown in Figure 5. statist ics are summa rised In Table 2. THICKNESSE S CthodJ ns FIGUR E 5 : Histog ram of orebod y thickn ess at measu red locatio . MILTON is A histogr am of the eastw est ~oriz.46 P.
0 m to 13.90 m median 3.68 m Table 2 Statistics of eastwest horizontal intersection widths A histogram of the eastwest horizontal intersection accumulations (width x grade) is shown in Figure 6.00 m 2 range of values: 0.37 m variance 7. statistics are summarised in Table 3.ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 47 Total number of samples 361 mean 3.     40  30 I 20 n 10 ACCUMULATION FIGURE 6 : Histogram of Nickel accumulations at sample locations .
48 P. Co. 2. A . The aim of calculating variograms is to quantify the geological factors which affect the accuracy of estimates. W.65 m% median 26. Total variance is Co + C. In addition. The variogram in the strikeplunge direction is a good example of the spherical model with parameters given in Table 4. The variogram parameters which quantify these factors are: "nugget" variance. the number of values available for variogram calculation in this direction make these variograms far less reliable than those calculated in the general strikeplunge direction. MILTON Total number of samples 310 mean 28. very few points can be calculated for down dip variograms.51 m% Table 3 Statistics of eastwest horizontal accumulations 2. .1 Varia grams for Thickness Variograms for thickness in the down dip and strikeplunge directions are shown in Figure 7. C. DOWD AND D. usually the directions corresponding to the principal directions of the orebody: along the strikeplunge axis and down dip. best results were obtained with a strike of 15 0 east of north and a dip of 80 0 W.00 m% to 95. ranges of influence in the two principal directions.61 (m%)2 range of values: 0. VARIOGRAM CALCULA nON AND ANAL YSIS Variograms of widths and accumulations were calculated in various strikedip planes. or variance due to random or small scale structure structural variance.00 m% variance 326. As the maximum vertical distance over which samples are recorded is 25 metres.
together with the model validation procedure described below. The points in Figure 7. However.. indicated a spherical model with the parameters given in Table 5.0 70 so 90 100 110 120 DISTANCES Iml Figure 7 : Variograms for Thickness 1. the available points indicate a shorter range structure.0 (ml c = 6. .ESTIMATION OF A SECfION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 49 o 0 o o o o o o 0 o o STR1KE PUJNGE I DOWN DIP o .0 (m)2 range (a) = 30 metres Table 4 Parameters of spherical model fitted to thickness variogram in strikeplunge direction It is more difficult to interpret the variogram in the down dip direction and there are far fewer points available for model fitting.MODEL 10 20 40 .
strike and plunge of the orebody.0 (ml c == 6. A. DOWD AND D. This is not surprising as the correlation coefficient between thickness and accumulation is 0. MILTON == 1. the specified dip. == 90. In fact. there is a remarkable similarity between the shapes of the variograms in Figures 7 and 8. W. The same general comments apply as were made for the thickness variograms. The volume removed can be altered so as to test the model with a range of di fferent sample configurations. .3 Model Validation Models were validated using the back estimation technique with varying amounts of data removed. The parameters of the spherical models fitted to the accumulation variograms are given in Table 6. the search volume within which samples are selected for any given estimation and the sample configuration.0 (mOlal range (down dip) 15 m range (strikeplunge) 30 m Table 6 Parameters of spherical model fitted to accumulation variograms in Figure 8 2.50 P.83. together with all other data within a specified radius or volume and the variogram model is used to estimate the value removed.2 Variograms for Accumulations Variograms for nickel accumulations are shown in Figure 8.0 (m)2 range (a) == 15 m Table 5 Parameters of spherical model fitted to thickness variogram in down dip direction 2.0 (m%)2 c = 240. in turn. Each data value is removed. Parameters that have an effect on the results are the variogram parameters.
There is no significant . This model gives the best combination of all the factors summarised in Figures 9 and 10.ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OFTHE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 51 o o o o o o o o o o o STRIKE 15E OF". DIP eo·w _ MODEL 100 '0 10 20 30 40 '0 60 70 eo 90 100 liD 120 DISTANCE 1m I Figure 8 : Variograms for Accumulations 2.50 m and the average of the corresponding true values is 1. Each plotted point in Figures 9 and 10 represents the average value of the actual (true) thickness for increments of 0.87 m.1 Thickness Results for thickness estimations using the model in Tables 4 and 5 for 1 m and for 8 m of data removed are shown in Figures 9 and 10 respectively. For conditionally unbiased estimates.75 m in the estimated values. the least squares regression of the actual values on the estimated values provides an approximate assessment of how well conditional unbiasedness is satisfied. as more data are removed. PLUNGE O· I. which are used to assess models. The other factors in Figures 9 and 10 assess other aspects of the performance of the model. all plotted points should lie on the 45 0 line. overall.3. the first point indicates that there are 14 estimated thickness values between 0. all factors deteriorate but.75 m and 1. Naturally. the model performs well with the exception that the mean kriging variance slightly underestimates the mean squared error. For example.
21 MEAN (ACTUALESTIMATE) I 0.53 1. 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS QN SLOPE 1. DOWD AND D.0 a 7.5 9.03 MEAN (ACTUAl.0 10.30m DIP I SOow STRIKE I 15° PLUNGE' 0° o MEAN I ACTUALESTIMATEI .5 60' 0 38 MEAN tACTUALESTIMATE) I 1.1.5 ( . 96 I CORRELATION COEFFICIENT I .52 P.5 ( 0.0 13 58 NO OF VALUES ESTIMATED 353 0 26 LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION OF ACTUAL ON EST 0 ACTUAL I . 15m o 6 0 DIP • 80° w· STRIKE' 15 0 E PLUNGE I 0° 4. A.5 6.0 4.5 ESTIMATED Figure 10 Average values of actual thickness for increments of 0.06 J COFlRELAT10N COEFFICIENT I .0 m 2 C.0 5 SHOOT1A :Thickness I m DATA REMOVED o 5 10.0034 MEAN {ACTUALESTIMATEl 2 • 3.96 3.0 7.0m 2 23 6.83' EST.75 m in the estimated thickness.5 SPHERICAL MODEL \I 19 a Co r1.0 7.87 N"' OF VALUES ESTIMATED 353 3.11 1.5 6.28 MEliN KRIGING VARIANCE I 2.5 SPHERICAL MODEL Co 11. MILTON o 12.5 3.0m 2 6.ESTIMATE) '.5 3. 16. I 4.96' EST.5 9.98 MEAN KRIGING VARIANCE 4.0 o at IIS.0 4.0m2 o C1 16.50 + 0.0 ESTIMATED Figure 9 Average values of actual thickness for increments of 0.0 55 o I 49 a LEAST SOUARES REGRESSION Of ACTUAL ON EST 46 ACTUAL I 0. W.5 55 MEAN (ACTUAL.11 + 0.0 10. 14 o o 9:S% CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON SLOPE 1. 1 m of data removed 10.75 m in the estimated thickness.86.5 9.6a • . 8 m of data removed .5 5 9.0 6 o 7.5 12.ESTIMATE1 2 4.0 11 a 130m.52 0 3.
3. estimation variances are good measures of the overall reliability of global estimates and in other cases provide good relative indices of reliability. for the purpose of this section. There are two factors which contribute to the accuracy of ore reserves as estimated from a given drilling or sampling density: the variability of the mineralisation as quantified by the variogram models of thickness and grade accumulation. . In reality. OPTIMUM DRILLING OR SAMPLE DENSITIES Optimum drilling densities can be defined in many ways depending upon the criterion used for optimality. The volume of the orebody used is that contained within a strike length of 325 m over a vertical distance of 25 m (2. These two factors are quantified by estimation variances (kriging and geometric) which purport to be the variances of the respective errors of estimation. Again. the surface estimation error incurred by inferring the ore body outline on the strikedip plane from a limited number of intersections with the orebody. 3. the asumptions about the estimation variances for individual estimates are at best doubtful and in most cases difficult. or impossible. there is no significant deterioration in the results in Figure 12 with up to 15 m of the data removed.5 metres above and below the highest and lowest stope lift plans respectively). 2. However. will be taken to mean the total tonnage and average grade of all ore contained within the volume of the orebody used in this study without any selection or possibility of mining implied. One way is to define an acceptable accuracy for the definition of reserves and then to determine the minimum amount of drilling required to achieve this accuracy. to verify. Similar comments apply to these results which indicate that the model is adequate for the purposes of estimation. The standard way of using these variances is to assume a normal distribution of errors and quote 95% confidence limits. Reserves.2 Accumulations Results for accumulation estimates using the model in Table 6 are summarised in Figures 11 and 12.ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 53 deterioration in the results shown in Figure 10 with up to 15 m of data removed.
'15m.AVER AGE VALUES 9 o 26 50 o SPHERICAL MODEL o Co I 90 (m%)2 55 c. 1. W.961 EST 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON SLOPE 10 (0.54 P.AVERAGE VALUES 27 50 SPHERICAl.83. 93) COARELATION COEFFICIENT • • 45 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ESTIMATED Figure 12 Average values of actual accumulations for increments of 10m% in the estimated accumulations. MODEL o Co • 90 {m%)2 51 " I 240(mDk)2 40 a.71 + 0 . I lsm.01 + 0. . A. 8 m of data removed.05 MEAN KRIGING VARIANCE '254.65 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ESTIMATEO Figure 11 Average values of actual accumulations for increments of 10 m% in the estimated accumulations. I 240 (m%)2 40 3.08) CORRELAlION COEFFICIENT 0 .58 . . 1 m of data removed 70 9 _ N9 OF VALUES 60 0 .[511MA1£1 10. 95% CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON SLOPE 10 ( .86 tj9 OF VALUES ESTIMATED "306 20 54 o LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION OF ACTUAL ON EST ACTUAL I 0 .10 30 MEAN (ACrUAL.15 I EST.30m OIP'SOOW STRIKE 15' PLUNGE I 0° 1 Il 30 MEAN I ACTUALESTIMATE I I 7.30m 84 o STRIKE 15' PLUNGE I 00 MEAN I ACTUALESTIMATE I 16.027 73 MEAN (4CTUALESTIMATEI 2 177. MILTON 70 9 _ N9 OF VALUES 12 60 o 0 .13 39 20 0 Nfl OF VALUES ESTIMATED • 306 LEAST SOUAAES RECiRESSION OF ACTUAL ON EST ACTUAL 14.19 o I MEAN KRICiING VARI ANCE 1 169 . DOWD AND D.30 90 MEAN (ACTUALESTIMATE) 1 0.14 MEAN (ACTUALESTIM ATEI 2 I 262.
3. h the average specific gravity of the are.1 Surface Estimation Error Figure 13 shows a drilling or sampling grid in the strikedip plane of the orebody. r. d t=sxhxd The estimated area of the reserves is equal to the size of the drilling/sampling grid multiplied by the number of grid rectangles within which the orebody is intersected. s the average thickness of the orebody.ESTIMATION OF A SECfION OFTHE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 55 Although referred to as "95% confidence limits" in this study. r. ~~ Nl n I I . r I I I I  Figure 13 : Drilling Grid Three thing& are required to estimate the tonnage of reserves (t): the surface area of the orebody. The accuracy of this estimate can be obtained from the formula for the relative estimation variance of the surface: 2 N2 a s z s +000605*) . the numbers are subject to the quali fication expressed above.
i. DOWD AND D. it is assumed that the mineralised surface is a distorted rectangular surface following the local strike. s Assuming a normal distribution of estimation errors. The surface is obtained by fitting a shapepreserving. relative 95% confidence limits for the surface area estimation are given by : o s + 1. spline surface to the midpoints of known orebody intersections as described in Section 5 and in Dowd (1986). only those which make up the mineralised surface n is the total number of intersections 0 2 is the estimation variance of the surface area s. A. For example. the number of grid rectangles in the strikeplunge and down dip directions.56 P. NZ and N1 are. dip and plunge and measuring 3Z5 m (along strike) and Z5 m (down dip) as shown schematically in Figure 14. W.e.MILTON where: N1 and NZ are equal to the number of grid rectangle sides around the perimeter of the mineralised surface parallel to directions 1 and Z respectively with NZ > NH only grid rectangles which contain an intersection are counted.96 x S In this study. Figure 14 : Regular drilling grid on median plane through orebody In this case. for a grid of 10 m x 10 m: NZ = 33 N1 = 3 n = 99 . respectively.
m 2 . i. 8125 m 2 + 762. ] ::: 0. Values of variance are tabulated for variograms with Co ::: 0 and C ::: 1.002292 ::: + 0.002292 and the relative estimation error is + 1.2 Estimation Error for Tonnage The relative estimation variance for the total tonnage of reserves is given by: o 2 s Z s 2As no data were available for specific gravity calculations the term ~ was taken as zero and all tonnages were calculated using a standard average specifi~ gravity.0938 or + 9. 3. The relative estimation variance is thus: The relative estimation variance for the average thickness of the orebody is obtained by first calculating the variance of extending the thickness of a central sample to its grid square as shown in Figure 15. To obtain the variance of the error incurred in extending the thickness of a central sample to a grid rectangle measuring 10 m along strike and 10 m down dip for a variogram with parameters given in Tables 4 and 5: .96 x 0.3.4% of the estimated surface area of 8125 m 2.ESTIMATION OF A SECfION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 57 and 0 2 2 ~ s ggz 1 3 [6 + 0.0605 33 x . a graph is shown in Figure 16.e. [Note: If specific gravities of samples are available the term Jz can be calculated by dividing the statistical variance of the sample specific gravities by the square of their mean specific gravity].
MILTON H_ I .  o L '_J Figure 15 Central Sample in rectangular panel H/a Figure 16 : Extension variance of a central sample in a rectangular panel (~. ~) for a spherical model variogram with Co =aO and C = 1 and a is the range . A. W.58 P.4 . DOWD AND D.
The value is 0. As the surface areas are all equal this reduces to: n s 2 0h2 2 2 n s or 3.3 Estimation Error for T otaI Quantity of Metal The quantity of metal.200 = 2. of the reserves and the average accumulation. d: q=sxaxd The relative variance of the total quantity of metal is given by: 2 2 2 2 °q z a a s Z.67 from the graph.+ Z + a ad 2 q a s 7 a where+ is the relative variance of the error of estimation of the a . and the specific gravity. 15 = 0. The mean extension variance is obtained from: where Si is the surface area of grid rectangle i.0 + 6. read the value corresponding to L/ a = 0.ESTIMATION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 59 divide each side of the grid rectangle by the range in that direction: 10 10 30 = 0.200. s.33 and H/a = 0.20 This extension variance is the same for each grid rectangle. the value obtained for the specified variogram is 1.67 (or vice versa: graph is symmetrical).33 . q.0 x 0. a. is the product of the area.
e. d 3.60 P.400 tonnes .90 m. Assuming a surface area (in the strikedip plane) of 8125 m and an estimated average thickness of 3. As an aid to interpreting the figures in Table 7. the volume of the study zone is 31688 m 2 • A specific gravity of 4.400 tonnes.0%. W. DOWD AND D.500 tonnes Assuming an estimated average accumulation of 28. For a drilling grid of 20 m x 5 m the relative estimation error on the tonnage is 9.800 tonnes of metal For a drilling grid of 20 m x 5 m the relative estimation error on the quantity of metal is 10. in this case r = 0.65 m% the estimated quantity of metal is: 8125 x 0. of the orebody is obtained by dividing the estimated average accumulation by the estimated average thickness: a 9 = 11 The relative estimation variance of the grade is given by: 0 2 +~ 9 where r is the correlation coefficient between thickness and accumulation. consider the followinp example. . A. The value of 0 a is obtained in an identical manner to O~ this time using the parameters of the variogram model for the accumulations given in Table 6.4% i. MILTON 2 average accumulation.8285. 133.5 Results The relative estimation errors for various drilling or sampling densities are given in Table 7.21 gives a total tonnage of 133.2865 x 4.4 Estimation Error for Mean Grade The average grade. g. 2 The value of ~ is again taken as zero.e. 3.21 = 9.:: 12. i.
40 30 20 10 NICKEL GRADE FIGUR E 4 : Histog ram of Nickel Grades of orebod y interse ctions . statist ics are summa rised in Table 2. I 30 ~ r 20 I  10 l. MILTON is A histogr am of the eastw est horizo ntal interse ction widths shown in Figure 5. DOWD AND D. A. DEPOSIT ESTIMA TION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEV ERANCE NICKEL 61 46 P. f THICKNESSE S Dhn~ ns FIGUR E 5 : Histog ram of orebod y thickn ess at measu red locatio ... W. l 40 f .
0. The results are summarised in table 8.:!:. 7.200 t Mean Accumulation 27. W. 4. GLOBAL RESERVE ESTIMATES Calculations similar to those described above can be applied to the actual data for this study. MILTON 9.50m% Tonnage of Metal 9. 5 and 6.000 t  Tonnage of ore . . Estimate 95% Confidence Limits Surface Area 8100m 2 + 350m 2 Mean Thickness 3. i. DOWD AND D.65 m% and an estimated mean thickness of 3.90 The relative estimation error on the grade for a drilling grid of 20 m x 5 m is 9.4%.7% Clearly.:!:.:!:. 7.15% Table 8 Ore Reserves estimates for Study Area: Shoot 1A The errors quoted in Table 8 indicate that the average grade.95%  + 0. the critical grid direction is down dip (or vertical).95m :.e.35%.62 P. from Table 7.35% 3.65 = 7. 0. A. Further sampling on any reasonable scale would not significantly reduce these errors (assuming of course that the addi tional data did not alter the geological and geostatistical interpretation of the orebody). In these calculations actual locations are used rather than the centres of ideal sampling grids and grid rectangles have been kriged from the available data using the variogram models given in Tables 4.:!:.250 t + 430 t Grade 6. total tonnage and average width of the orebody can be determined with a very acceptable accuracy. 980 tonnes Assuming an estimated mean accumulation of 28. 6.40m% + 0.67% say.90 m the estimated mean grade is: 28.800 tonnes.1 %.07m 133. 0.
Production Geostatistics % Ditt.1 Comparison with Production Figures Production figures were obtained from the detailed face mapping after mining.6%  Table 9 Comparison of Production Figures and Geostatistics Estimates. estimates and local planning estimates.250 t 1. The known orebody outline was digitised from 1:500 stope Ii ft plans at approximately 4 m vertical intervals.7%  Grade 7.95% 8. to distinguish between such global. A comparison of the geostatistics estimates and the production figures is given in Table 9.340 t 9.000 t +8.000 t 133.4% +  2. The geometrical constraints inherent in the method used here have minimised this tendency. however.59% 6.2% Metal tonnes 9. estimated from face samples and drill core data. The same data were used to estimate the grade within the digitised outline. Relative Figures Estimates Confidence Limits on Estimates Ore tonnes 123. the corresponding ore tonnage should be reasonably accurate. It is a characteristic of unconstrained geostatistical estimation to tend to overestimate ore tonnes and under estimate grade. however. The only figure which can be accepted strictly as "reality" is the orebody volume obtained from the digitised plans.1% + 4. using production figures as the standard The di fference in the ore tonnage figures can be explained mostly by: more accurate delineation of internal waste by the digitised orebody outline use of an average specific gravity for the geostatistics estimates and local speci fic gravities for the production figures. . The frustum method was used to calculate volumes which were weighted by local speci fic gravities. in situ.ESTIMA TION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 63 It is important. The global estimates quoted above refer to the entire study area as a single mass and do not give any indication of the variability of grade and thickness that may be encountered on a mining scale.0% + 4. to obtain ore tonnage. The grade obtained from the digitised outline is a polygonal type estimate. 4.
e. the location determined by interpolating the fitted spline surface. Whilst the actual orebody outline is more erratic than the kriged outline there is. The easting (x coordinate) of each location at which an estimate is to be made is. cross section or oblique section and. thickness and accumulation are then estimated at this location. DOWD AND D. The method used in this study is described in detail in Dowd (1986). The horizontal line indicates the kriged thickness at the location marked by the cross. Thicknesses were kriged at 2m intervals in the northsouth direction. A typical comparison of the kriged results and "reality" (face mapping in a mined area) is shown in Figure 19. nevertheless. there is a problem additional to estimating thickness and grade: estimating the location at which thickness and accumulation estimates are to be made.64 P. The z co ordinate is fixed by the stope Ii ft speci fied. The numbers above the crosses indicate the estimated grade over the width of the orebody. A. PLANNING ESTIMATES For all estimates in these types of orebodies. a spline surface is fitted to the midpoints of the converted. the location of the footwall and hangingwall for the specified y and z coordinates must be known. Consider the example shown in Figure 17 which shows a stope Ii ft (horizontal plane) on which the footwall and hangingwall of the orebody are to be estimated. quadratic spline fitted with the aid of first triangulating the points on the average strikedip plane. eastwest horizontal orebody widths. combined with a simple graphics package. MILTON 5. are an invaluable aid in mine planning. A grid interval can be specified in the north (or strike) direction. The footwall and hangingwall locations are obtained by joining the extremities of the thickness estimates. W. The required easting (x) coordinate is given by the point on the fi tted surface at the specified northing (y) and vertical (z) coordinates. These outlines can be produced for any speci fied plan. . To obtain the easting. this fixes the y coordinate for each estimate. unknown. but these locations cannot be estimated until the easting is known. The cross indicates the estimated location of the midpoint of the orebody i. The surface is a shape preserving. however. Essentially. Each location can be plotted together with the estimated thickness to give the estimated orebody shape and location as illustrated in Figure 18. good general agreement between the two shapes.
~~:....ESTIMA TION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVERANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 65 ~ .O.intersections mid points of orebody spec if ied gr id in northing (y) ~ direction Figure 17 Stope Lift with Orebody Intersections ____ESTIMATED MID POINT OF OREBODY ESTIMATED GRADE Figure 18 I]lustration of Kriged Orebody Outline and Grade ..
! 'e. I I i: \ /: i 7 .'*+. ' I . .66 P.. MILTON I N j :... A. W.\. DOWD AND D. I I ~.. . I I Figure 19 Kriged Orebody Boundaries and Face Mapped Boundaries on Plan .FACE MAP PING \ L~ i .
I.E.0 CONCLUSIONS This case study demonstrates the importance of geological controls in the geostatistical estimation of veins and stratigraphic orebodies in general. Isa" . P . Melbourne. . as such.R. 8. (1986) .A. pp. Hartley.Geology.Proceedings of the 13th Commonwealth Mining and Metallurgical Congress. Pub. Vol. plans and oblique sections can be generated by the combination of kriging and spline surface fitting. practical results in a form suitable for planning. will never coincide with reality. and Scott. the important criteria for assessing the techniques and results presented here are: the performance of these techniques compared with that of other techniques the ability of the techniques to provide accurate. April 1986.ESTIMA TION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEVE RANCE NICKEL DEPOSIT 67 6.0 REFERENCES Dowd. However. Australia. these can then be plotted as in Figure 19 or displayed on a graphics terminal to provide a basis for stope design or simply a sectional or threedimensional view of the orebody.8194."Geostatistics in the Stratigraphic Orebodies at Mt.M. Singapore. The kriged global reserves and kriged orebody outlines are estimates made from relatively sparse data and. 7. interactive graphics approach to mine planning in underground orebodies. The techniques used here also provide the basis for a powerful. The production figures were compiled by C.A. pp 2736."Geometrical and Geological Controls in Geostatistical Estimation and Orebody Modelling" 19th APCOM. Australasian Insti tute of Mining and Metallurgy. Crosssections. 1 . P. Pub. May 1986. Dowd. I. Pensylvannia State University. A.P.0 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge the permission of Agnew Mining Company Pty Limited to publish this case study. (1986) .
their faithfulness in describing the real behaviour of the studied orebody. G.MULTIPURPOSE GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA G. 6992. mechanical characteristics. ROMA. 1.). © 1987 by D. i.. In the special case of a m~n~ng project.e. Basically.g. Italy ABSTRACT Geostatistics was used to model the Olmedo bauxite deposit in Sardinia. depends essentially on: . It is. . LIBERTA (*). L: SALVATO (*). SANNA (***) * MINING ITALIANA.the unbiasedness and adequacy of the informationprocessing procedures adopted for building the models themselves. lithologies. INTRODUCTION It is well known that the reliability of the technical and economic components of a design depends to a great extent on the reliability of both the basic data and the hypotheses adopted. therefore. Geostatisticai Case Studies. Italy ** UNIVERSITY OF TRIESTE. CAPELLO (*). grades. and to calculate the characterized insitu reserves and the mineable reserves. clear that the representa tivity of the models. .P. Armstrong (eds. thicknesses.A. CAGLIARI. Matheron and M. Italy *** PROGEMISA S. Care was taken to incorporate and model the available geological information including the karsism. all design choices and subsequent estimates of foreseeable technical and economic results are based on the hypotheses formulated regarding the character istics of the orebody. Reidel Publish ing Compa"y. M. Sardinia.the quantity and the quality of the available data and/or information. A. GUARASCIO (**). via 29 Novembre 56. Via Vinicio Cortese 48. etc. it is a question of building a spatialbehaviour model for each characteristic of the orebody (e.) that may have an appreciable effect on the design choices and/or on the future economic results. 69 G.
CAPELLO ET AL.70 G. 2. Geologically.e. is the most important guide for prospection work. i. The pos1t10n of the latter on the stratigraphic column. the Nurra basin is characterized by the presence of an almost complete stratigraphic series extending from the . BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE NURRA BAUXITE BASIN Figure shows that Olmedo orebody covers a small sector of the Nurra area of northwestern Sardinia where there is a bauxite formation. The first concrete results of this phase of work was an evaluation of in situ reserves and a technical zoning of the orebody. between the lower and the upper cretaceous eras. This article describes and discusses the data. the procedures and the models that were adopted for the study of the bauxite orebody at Olmedo in Sardinia (Italy).
As a result of this stratigraphic and structural evolution. The subsequent postmesozoic and preoligocenic tectonics are characterized by mild folding (at times more marked or with faulted zones). km was carried out near olmedo. The folding phenomenon belongs to the ejective category. or is presumed to lie just under the more recent deposits over an area of at least 200 sq. where the bauxite bank outcrops over a distance of about 4 km. The cretaceous layers present the carbonatic sediments typical of coastal lagoons (purbeckian facies). Altered material subsequently accumulated on the paleosurface formed by emersion of the series and their evolution created the bauxitic formation. with both synclines and anticlines. an area of 79 sq. marly limestones and nodular limestones in a purbeckian facies and of oolitic limestones.MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 71 paleozoic era to the more recent deposits which belong to the quaternary era (Figure 2). Intensive detailed prospection covering a zone of about 4 sq.g. The inclination of dipping. The Olmedo orebody is therefore structured as a monocline. The permotrias continental detrital series lies discordantly on a metamorphic base modified by wide scale folding phenomena. the orebody lies under the quaternary layers or carbonatic deposits belonging to the tertiary age and can be reconstructed by extrapolating. A large number of these have been confirmed by drillhole data. In particular. For the rema~n~ng 121 sq. with a maximum width of 17 m having been identified in connection with the morphology of karstic caves which it filled. the presence of the bauxite formation and its depositing features are strongly conditioned by footwall lithotypes generally 1 to 4 m wide. the upper cretaceous outcrops. The dominant footwall lithotype consists of alternating marls. with the axis being oriented N60 E. in the Brunestica zone and near Olmedo town. oriented approximately N65 E. km. coniacian limestones suggest a probable upper paleolithic origin. oriented towards the SE. km of the Nurra area (Figure 3). where the bauxite layers can be expected to be less wide or found in irregular karstic cavities. At the limits of the project area. The significant marine ingression occurred at the end of this process of bauxitization. e. km is characterized by outcrops or zones that can easily be reconstructed by interpolation. The structures generated by the folding phenomenon were in turn displaced by several systems of faults of a distensive nature and oriented more or less NE and NS. tending to close as a syncline to the NE. Under the upper cretac eous. averages out at 10·15· but may attain peaks of 25· locally. .
CAPELLO ET AL.72 G.~ TI ON BARREMIAN UPPER VALANGINIAN LO~ER VALANGIN I AN JURESE Mining Ihllenu S. . OliATERNARY MIOCENE OLI GOMIOCENE uPPER SANTONIAN SANTONIAN UPPER CONIACIAN FORM . Figure 1.p.A.
MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 73 ~ PEOROSEDOU ~HANGING WALL OF THE ~BAUXITF.A. FORMATION ~BAUXIIE OUICRAPS ~FOOTWALL OF THE ~BAUXITE FORMATION Mlnln It.llene S. .p. Figure 3.
Minimum Maximum Average Lithotypes (m) (m) (m) Conglomeratic bauxite 0. Statistical parameters.42 Conglomeratic bauxite 0.16 Compact bauxite 0.00 3.80 11.35 9. lithotype thicknesses. The area can be divided into three distinct zones. TABLE 1. is the outcropping area. Tables 1 and 2 illustrate the ranges of variation and the averages of the main elements analysed in the orebody for different lithotypes. The third zone is more regular.00 2.07 0. Thickness (m) Si0 2 % A1 2 0 3 % Whole orebody 1. CAPELLO ET AL. Average statistical parameters. It represents the western leg of the anticline.26 0. with throws of less than 5 m at distances of a few hundreds of meters. 71 59. The second one.49 1.48 63.90 Clayey bauxite 0.29 TABLE 2.35 . It covers the largest part of the total area and includes the hinge and the eastern side of the anticline.93 Compact bauxite 1. The first one is slightly inclined and highly irregular with throws of up to 90 m. which is also irregular with a high frequency of faults but a maximum throw of 20 m. Statistical analysis was performed only on the drillholes that were valid for estimating the quality.29 17.00 4.35 Clayey bauxite 0.74 G.65 42. The structural framework described above indicates that the bauxite horizon in the project area can be schematically presented as consisting in an inclined surface with a mild anticlinal arch.16 19.59 52.
the work involved systematic sampling of the 7. Ti0 2 .5 sq. exploration continued on a tighter grid of 200 m and at times even going down to 100 m in order to define in greater detail the displacements that had been brought to light by analyses of the partial results from the first campaign and to calibrate an optimal grid for the detailed estimation of the explored part of the orebody. calcite. km. . During 1982 and 1983. montmorillonite. Si0 2 . provided encouraging information regarding the possibility of this geological horizon also being present under the vulcanites. geothite. The drilling data were integrated by means of stream samples taken from old underground drifts and from trenches dug in the outcropping areas. where Upper Cretacious outcrops had been found. Sampling work began in the fall of 1979. and organic and inorganic C) as well as for the following minerals: bohemite. Given the considerable size of the area (24 sq. A grid of vertical holes located along the strike of the bank was preferred in view of the regular stratiform nature of the deposit. characterized by small inclinations and the apparent absence of periodicity and anisotropy. Fe 2 0 3 . Chemical and mineralogical analyses (fluores cence and Xdiffractometer) were carried out for a number of elements (AI 2 0 3 . The 400 m grid was considered adequate for the purpose of covering a relatively large area since the number of holes required to obtain the necessary general information in a short period of time was not unreasonably high and involved costs in keeping with the high level of uncertainty of initial exploration.5 sq. with a series of destruction corings with a bottom hammer.MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 75 3. kaolinite. CaO. In 198182. again using coredestruction drilling down to near the hanging wall of the bauxite but changing to continuous core boring through the deposit to the footwall layer. drilling on a 100m grid was performed on an area of 4 sq. chlorite. About 70 additional holes were drilled in the remaining area in order to define the structural characteristics and the continuity of the formation better. it was decided to explore a smaller zone measuring 7. km by means of a systematic campaign of drilling on a square grid with 400 m sides. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROSPECTING WORK AND DATA ORGANIZATION The initial geological survey of the Nurra area. km). area on this grid. km. illite. This permitted a quick reconstruction of the stratigraphy and of the behaviour of the bank as well as the design of the optimal drilling system subsequently adopted for sampling the deposit. In a subsequent phase.
In constructing the samples. This made it possible to make tridimensional representations and the latter provided the basis for the design phase. anatase. the lithotypes observed along the widths were distinguished and further subdivided into sections of 2530 cm. The typology of information available as at 31/12/83 is presented in Table 3. TABLE 3. additional destructive drilling was carried out to verify and improve the details of the geometrical model of the orebody that had been constructed on the basis of the results of the drilling.76 G. rutile. VALIDITY C CD D SF CN AF FA TR TOTAL Valid Quality (Bx) 130 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 138 Analyzed 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 Sampled 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 Negative 14 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 22 Notvalid quality 41 6 27 36 49 54 0 5 218 Analyzed 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 Valid layer width 144 5 28 0 48 0 2 5 232 Valid formation width 155 5 22 0 8 0 2 5 197 Valid hanging wall level 151 7 29 36 49 54 2 5 333 Valid footwall level 17 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Total 171 9 30 36 49 54 2 5 356 C Destructive drilling of overburden and core boring in bauxite bank D Destructive drilling only CD Drilling initially planned as mixed but performed by destruction drilling only SF = Dummy drillholes created for values sampled in mining drifts CN = Channel samples taken in mining drifts AF = Samples taken from outcrops FA = Computed outcrop samples TR Trenches . titanite and quartz. although the degree of reliability inevitably varied due to scarcity of data for some of the blocks. The models that were built provided a fully determined numerical basis for every point in space. CAPELLO ET AL. In 1983. hematite. Typology of information available as at 31/12/83.
the study of phenomena that are structurally complex and normally charac .rigourous respect of the procedures for estimatirtg and recognizing anomalies. The procedure adopted for constructing the structural model is the result of a compromise between the following factors: . STRUCTURAL MODEL OF THE OREBODY Information from the following sources was used to build the structural model of the orebody: . with particular attention being paid to the bauxite outcrops found by ground pacing. concerning the type of the deformations and displacements considered to be constraints for the model. allowed us to identify the zones of disturbance and to subdivide the orebody into homogeneous zones.stratigraphic levels as they could be read from the cores. The GEOVAL procedure developed by MINING ITALIANA is an appli cation of the theory of linear geostatistics. The work proceeded with a quantitative definition of the model using nonstationary variographic analysis. 4. general geological and structural survey of the Nurra basin. i. Each package is further subdivided into modules for individual operations. topographic survey of drilling locations. providing a flexible structure that can be adapted to a wide range of different problems.MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 77 NB: Data on additional drillholes are still being processed and preliminary results tend to confirm the average values of the study.integration of quaritified data with qualitative data that cannot easily be quantified. aerophotogrammetric survey of surface morphology. This made it possible to rough out a base model delimiting the form of the orebody. stratigraphic drilling logs. which was performed using statistical methodo logies. integrating it with methods for handling of sampling data and with graphical outputs of the different phases. detailed geological and structural survey of the Olmedo area and of accessible mlnlng drifts.e. During this phase. compatibility with the more realistic hypotheses concerning typology and sequence of tectonic events. anomalies of different degrees were interpreted in the light of structural assumptions based on available geological knowledge acquired either experimentally or assumed. Slope analysis. both in general terms and in terms of discontinuity. .
above all. The experimental variograms for thickness were calculated in the plane of the deposit.. Besides verifying the qualitative and. and variations in thickness along the length of the deposit can be considered to be regular. which has an average thickness of about 4 em. For all cases.6 m (Figure 4). is found in the zones of oriented accumulation which are concen trated in the northern and western sectors of the study area. It is practically absent in the zones with a limestone footwall belonging to the Upper Valanginian era (Figure 5). . the construction of the base model made it possible to estimate a studied variable even for those zones where a low density of informatiop and the very subdivision of the orebody i. the quantita tive suitability of the hypotheses adopted. The clay footwall. CAPELLO ET AL terized by a trend.'~ homogeneous zones had reduced the available data to insufficient levels for further variographic structural analysis and the corresponding esti mation. nonstationary IRFk on a 25m grid. a phenomenology was assumed. between the values of the base model and the experimental values.78 G. This made it possible to recognize a second order trend in the behaviour of the hanging wall of the bauxite formation and to determine the parameters required to interpolate it by means of point. with drillhole selection using a dynamic estimating envelope. The displacements were then interpreted and defined through statis tical analysis of the deviations. for the known points. the spherical models were fitted. the preliminary base model that had been obtained using kriged values as interpolators was assumed to represent the hanging wall of the bauxite formation after the first phase. The zones of maximum thickness (up to about 5 m) are lined up fairly regularly along the strike which may correspond to early folding of the footwall formation. namely folding and disjoining. The directional semivariograms were calculated. The thickness varies considerably because of the presence of karst cavities filled with bauxite. LITHOSTRATIGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE BAUXITE LAYER In the Olmedo area. from the drillhole data. For this. The form and extension of this envelope depends on the local geometry of the sampling data. The elevation of orebody hanging wall has a polynomial covariance model. the average thickness of the bauxite formation is 2. Their subsequent application to the abovementioned model allowed us to define the final model of the behaviour of the hanging wall of the bauxite formation. The local estimates of the thickness were obtained by stationary kriging. In this sense. 5. consisting of two distinct tectonic events.
J'[.IO ~ .__ +_. OOll.l OD~" 000 " 008'£ 009[: OO t t DOlt 0901: OOBt OiJt~ OO ~ . ~ c o .MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 79 ._ _ ._+_._ l_. _ _____+ _ ..g<> .
CAPELLO ETAL. .80 G.
This was done in order to reduce the estimation error with regard to the footwall clays which are a strongly penalizing character istic for future mining operations.10150 em of bauxite clays: this facies corresponds to a very early stage of the bauxitization process.MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 81 The widths of both the bauxite layer and the clay footwall were determined using data from all drillholes. the Si0 2 grades vary from 1 to 12%. The model of footwallclay thickness was computed on the basis of the difference between the preceding two models. the Si0 2 grades vary from 12 to 15%. The mineralogical composition of the Nurra bauxites is character ized essentially by the presence of aluminium of the monohydrate type in the form of bohemite. which represents twothirds of the total study area. block models of the stratigraphic thickness of the bauxite formation were constructed using geostatistical procedures integrated with inverse distance weighting. On marly and marlylimestone footwalls belonging to the Purbeckian facies. including those for which there was no information on bauxite grades and oretypes. 6. the bauxite formation presents the following charac teristics from bottom to top : . . Where the density of available information was considered to be insufficient. . maintaining stratigraphic consistency. Model estimates of formation and stratum thicknesses were computed independently by kriging.050 cm of pseudoconglomeratic bauxite derived from reelaboration of the underlying facies.1080 em of clayey bauxite: the transition from the preceding facies is gradual even though it occurs in the space of a few centimeters. A tapaprobabilistic model was developed for this. The data used to construct the model for forecasting the presence of hangingwall karsism are the result of interpretative readings . Each point of the bauxite formation was classified according to the probability of more or less intense hanging wall karsism.50400 cm of compact bauxite. . the Si0 2 grade varies from 8 to 20\. with a fine ooliticpisolitic fabric. MODEL OF HANGING WALL KARSISM Being able to forecast the probability of karstic phenemona of a certain intensity and of a certain extension in a given area has a direct influence on the criteria to be adopted in scheduling the drifting and/or m1n1ng works as well as in estimating the inaccessible fractions of area and hence the nonrecoverable reserves.
CAPELLO ET AL.e.7 Strong (high) 1. Thickness is here understood in the lithostratigraphic. TABLE 3.0 Weak 0. IN SITU AND MINEABLE RESERVES The term "in situ reserves" is used to indicate the tonnages of ore that correspond to the volume computed by integrating the thicknesses of the bauxite layer over the entire explored area. The reliability is evaluated by calculating the proportion of the number of drillholes available to the maximum (9) available in a complete grid.75 . In this case.00 7.0. undeter mined sense. Suitably coded.4 Average 0.1.25 Average 0. No reductions have been made to take account of lack of recovery due to geometry of mining operations or inability to mine near faults or areas reserved for infrastructure. the parameters are the thicknesses at given cutoff grades for Si0 2 .25 .0. Coding of intensity of karsism. The term "characterized reserves" is used to designate the fraction of the entire volume within the established quality specifications. Table 3 shows the system for coding the intensity of karsism while Table 4 shows the reliability classes. Reliability Classes RELIABILITY CLASSES RATIO OF n/R Low 0 . of the cores by geologists.0 TABLE 4. These values are determined on .75 High 0.82 G. this information is stored in the mine's data bank (Figure 6). INTENSITY CLASS CODE Not present (nil) 0. based on a cutoff grade for Si0 2 . i.
MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 83
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the basis of the geometrical and economic constraints imposed by
the design.
Finally, the term "mineable reserves" is used when the parts that
cannot be mined have been subtracted from the "reserves condi
tioned by quality and thickness", i.e. zones near the faults,
zones reserved for the infrastructure or zones that must be
abandoned due to geometrical constraints of the different mining
methods. The term "mineable reserves' also takes account of the
fact that a certain rate of dilution will occur during mining,
when the quality of runofmine ore will be lowered during the
processes of selection and extraction.
As the Olmedo orebody is a twodimensional deposit, the reserve
estimates are associated with estimates of thickness (determined
by a cutoff grade in % Si0 2 ) and the corresponding accumulations
(product of grades x thickness). The data used for estimating in
situ reserves are those obtained from drill holes that provided
complete and reliable information on widths and the distribution
of grades along the bauxite stratum. For each of these, the
behaviour of the silica and the alumina was modelled on the basis
of the grades obtained from cores.
Gradetonnage models and convex analysis were then used to
simulate the effects of a series of cuttings in the footwall of
the bauxite stratum, including elimination of the bauxite rich in
Si0 2 at the bottom. This operation is justified by the real
possibility of making the same selection during mining. The
vertical zoning of the bauxite layer and the possibility of
selecting part of the thickness of the panel wherever the requi
rements concerning quality of runofmine ore are not met, led to
the adoption of a dual characterization, applying a series of
cutoffs for Si0 2 grade for the footwall and for the panels of the
estimated models.
For the global characterization, the quality of the orebody was
estimated for five different cutoffs (10, 12, 14, 20 and 100%)
for Si0 2 grade, layer thickness and accumulations of Si0 2 and
Al 2 0 3 ·
The size of the estimating panels (50 x 50 sq. m) and the differ
entiated estimates of the layer for the various cutoffs were
based on the results of the lithostratigraphic and gradetonnage
models of the orebearing formation and the distributions in the
plane of the drillholes. The results of the evaluations of the
bauxite stratum are shown in Figures 7, 8 and 9. These show the
distribution of reserves according to the following parameters:
average thickness of the bauxite bank in terms of blocks
measuring 50 x 50 sq. m (cutoff at 20% Si0 2 );
MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 85
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Average grade in A1 20 3 59. The curves show how the reserves diminish when the panels (50 x 50 sq.9 64. if the strategy of not mining ore with more than 20% Si0 2 and of selecting the blocks with an estimated grade of less than 20\ Si0 2 and a thickness of over 1. m (cutoff at 20% Si0 2 ).9 Mtonnes . 99 7.5 64.7 62.8 % .average grade in Si0 2 of the bauxite bank in terms of blocks measuring 50 x 50 sq. Cutoff Thickness Si0 2 Al 20 3 Reserves (%) (m) ('o) ('o) (Mt) 20 2. These figures must be reduced by about 3% to take account of the effects of karstic and erosive phenomena.65 6.6 % Table 5 shows the characterized reserves at various cutoff grades for Si0 2 in the footwall for thicknesses over 1.2 10 1. It shows the curves of average Si0 2 grade against tonnage for the part of the layer that is characterized by a given cutoff Si0 2 grade for the clayey footwall bauxites. This represents a horizontal selection of the layer. 88 6. In particular. (This decision corresponds to systematically abandoning the poorest part of the ·clayey bauxite" oretypes) the following values were then obtained for the reserves: .average grade in A1 2 0 3 of the bauxite bank in terms of blocks measuring 50 x 50 sq.5 63. CAPELLO ET AL. Characterized reserves (Si0 2 cutoff at footwall and thickness). The characteristics of the in situ reserves are presented below.1 12 1.In situ reserves 30.14 8.Average thickness 1 .7 24.m) with a high silica grade are elimi nated.3m for the zones to be mined by underground methods.6 15. . m (cutoff at 20% Si0 2 ).88 G.9 20. .3 m (for underground mining) was adopted. 1 Figure 10 gives an overview of the reserves.81 m .4 14 1.7 17 .Average grade in Si0 2 11 . TABLE 5. .
.MODELLING OF A BA UXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 89 o '" .o o ..
CONCLUSION In conclusion. therefore.7 % These results obtained led to the decision to divide the orebody into three distinct zones on the basis of technical and economic considerations.average grade in Si0 2 9.14 m .Characterized in situ reserves 24. minimum thickness of 1.protecting masses for the infrastructures. .4 M . 8. with the average being 87%. the project mining strategy determined the following mineable reserves: .average grade 1n A1 2 0 3 62. The first zone covers the outcrops. Each zone is.mineable reserves of crude ore 20.0 The grades in Si0 2 and A1 2 0 3 were then modified to take account of dilution. Zone 1 was subdivided into 4 distinct 5ubzones. .Average grade in Si0 2 8. characteristics that are an inherent part of the m1n1ng method (e.presence of faults or other disruptions. Table 6 presents the detailed results for each zone.average thickness 2.4 Mtonnes . Recoveries for the first two zones are estimated at 95\ and 85%.Average grade 1n A1 20 3 62. respectively. .karstic phenomena.3 m for underground mining) . characterized by different recovery rates which take account of factors such as: . while the second one refers to the part with a more regular structure and the third one to the more disrupted part. . This subdivision is a result of the analysis of the suitability of various mining methods: openpit for the first zone and underground mining using mechanized systems for the other two.0 % " .90 G. The allowance of 3% for karstic and erosive phenomena has already been made.g.7 % .Average thickness 2.0 Mtonnes . The predicted recovery rate for zone 3 is 75%. CAPELLO ET AL.
5 64. Vol. ENSMP. "GEOSTAT 75".  TOTAL 20127.. 7.14 421.16 60 ZONE 2 9674.5 B 720. 9. GUARASCIO M... ENSMP. "Preliminary geostatis tical analysis of the Sotiros deposit".1 1. France.7 . GUARASCIO M.44 13. 1979.. Mineable reserves. JOURNEL A. 1975. 8.MODELLING OF A BAUXITE OREBODY IN SARDINIA 91 TABLE 6. 6.4 61.9 2.8 2.  TOTAL ( 1 ) 3330. RASPA G.1 167.2 63. 8. 1974.3 63.5 C 829. Rome.5 62. 10.3 2.9 64.6 2. Paris. GUARASCIO M.17 254.3 . Fontainebleau.5 .8 2.8 55. 1981. DUBRULE 0. Advanced geostatistics in the mining industry. 81 15.. ·Valutazione dei giacimenti minerari: l'approcio geostatistico" (The evaluation of orebodies: the geostatistical approach).9 1.4 65.17 194. "Improving the uranium deposits estimations (The Novazza case)". 8.. 85 12. Centre de Geostatistique.6 2.7 62. and 2. 8.  TOTAL ( 1+2) 13004. 8.3 0 1188. . Proceedings NATO ASI. Geostatistique Miniere (Mining geostatistics)..7 2. Note GEOSTAT N' 21. 1977. Industria Mineraria.47 18.3 ZONE 3 7123. These de DocteurIngenieur. Reserves Si0 2 Al 2 0 3 Thickness Surface Ktonn % % m ha ZONE 1 A 593. Italy. "Krigeage et Splines en Cartographie Automa tique" (Kriging and splines in computeraided mapping).8 REFERENCES BRUNO R.
1975. Fontainebleau. MATHERON G. CAPELLO ET AL. France. Centre de Geostatistique. Centre de Geostatistique. "The theory of regionalized variables and its applications". Fontainebleau. ENSMP. Fontainebleau. France.. . ENSMP. France. "L'estimation globale des reserves recupe rabIes" . 1978. MATHERON G. 1971. MATHERON G. "Le parametrage technique des reserves". Centre de Geostatistique.. ENSMP..92 G.
and the shape of the interpolated structure depends heavily on the location 93 G. The first step is the geostatistical analysis of seismic data. This semivariogram is used to construct a time grid. Computergenerated structure maps based on few well data are fraught with problems . are available in II wells . Geostatistical Case Studies. 93103. large areas are'not covered by any data point. This leads to uncertainty in the inter polated values. Reidel /'"blislrillg Oll/plllly. Matheron and M. the geologist usually supplements the log data with his apriori knowledge (or prejudices) of the formation under study.). and a theoretical model is fitted. Kriging is an ideal tool for merging seismic and log data. . Wireline logs. Armstrong (eds. wireline logs are correlated to the seismic sections with the help of the VSP data. The best representation of a subsurface horizon should combine both measurements. Seismic data include three common depth point (COP) lines and a large number of singlefold records. First. including a vertical seismic profile (VSP). © 1987 by D. A timedepth relationship is established and applied to the time grid to yield a "drift" for the kriging of the depth data. The empirical semivariogram is drawn from several hundred shot points. A CASE HISTORY Laurent Moinard Schlumberger Well Services ABSTRACT Maps constructed from seismic data represent subsurface structures in terms of twoway transit time. The final output is a depth grid used to generate a contour map. INTRODUCTION Geologic structures are often mapped from well log data available in very few wells. In the second step. This case history describes the mapping of a reef in north Texas. When this is done by hand.APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF FROM WIRELINE LOGS AND SEISMIC DATA. Wireline logs provide depth of formation tops at well locations.
000 feet in the eastwest direction and 8.' .. Second. .: .'. respectively. '. The Caddo lime is about 400 feet thick. . The purpose of the study was therefore to provide an accurate structure map of the top of the Caddo limestone to delineate the extent of one reef.600 feet. GEOPHYSICAL DATA The area of study is located in Throckmorton County. It does not reflect the degree of continuity of the parameter interpolated or the density of data points in a given area..... 1 Locations of data points . After reviewing the log al}d seismic data we will show how they were combined to determine the geometry of a reef in north Texas. Eleven wells... and it is sometimes difficult to match seismic reflectors and geologic boundaries without ambiguity. However. A NOrlh " ...000 feet in the northsouth direction. First. It is overlain by the Smithwick shale. which are hydrocarbonproducing formations at depths of 4. the vertical resolution of seismic measurements is much worse than that of well logs. Unlike well log data.:. the interpolation method is arbitrarily selected..: 10' • '. ": ....? . not depth. II · C· . :'::'. .. We will assume that the reader is familiar with the theory of geostatistics. The crosses are single fold or "conventional" seismic records.8 9 '..94 L.. which is also several hundred feet thick. The buildup of reefs on the Mississippi lime creates structural traps in both formations. labeled 1 through II.: . Second..::. B. The Smithwick Caddo boundary is an excellent seismic reflector that can be identified easily throughout the area. :../2. labeled A. B.' . This paper shows how depth data from a small number of well logs and time data from seismic sections can be combined to obtain a detailed structure map.. are shown as dots.. and C.000 and 4. seismic data often provide a good areal coverage of the area under study..' :: . : . seismic sections also suffer from limitations. It covers about 10... The diamonds correspond to three sixfold COP seismic lines. Locations of data points are shown on the figure. '.. MOl NARD of the data points. The formations of interest are the Caddo and Mississippi limestones. :: :~. Fig. Texas. . The area covered by the study is shown in figure I.. the vertical axis of a seismic section is scaled in time.
and • Gamma ray. The depth is measured on the wire line with a calibrated wheel and is corrected for cable stretch and tool buoyancy. Depth accuracy is usually better than one foot at the depth of the formations under study. The curves displayed are: Fig.APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF 95 Wireline Logs The most accurate data available in the area are well logs. • Acoustic velocity. Measurements are made everyonehalf foot." • Hydrogen index. and water saturation. • Photoelectric capture cross section. An example of a computed log in well 2 is shown on figure 2. The measurements listed above are analyzed with computer programs to derive rock parameters more meaningful to geologists and reservoir engineers: mineral composition. Logs are geophysical measurements performed with instruments lowered in the wellbore at the end of a wireline. 2Computed log ana lys is on Well 2 . porosity. • Bulk density. Rock parameters measured in wells 1 through 8 include: • Resistivity and "spontaneous potential.
The distance between geophone groups is fairly short (220 feet). The method is simple. Wells 9. respectively. SingleFold Records The crosses on figure 1 correspond to singlefold seismic records. and with a spacing of 800 to 1. An array of geophones is depleyed along a long straight line. Common Depth Point Records The diamonds correspond to a more sophisticated seismic survey. shaded with short horizontal lines. Seismic Data Three types of seismic data were available in the field: over 100 singlefold records. This limited logging suite does not lend itself to detailed volumetric analysis. A seismic source is successively detonated at each location and the amplitude . It is divided into two areas.000 feet between shot points it can provide good areal . shaded with coarse dots. three CDP lines.. the fraction of bulk rock volume filled with movable fluids (water and oil).e. 2.96 L. they are: 1. shaded with fine dots. The area to the right of the curve corresponds to the pore volume. black and white. Quartz fraction. For each record. Geophones deployed a short distance away from the shot location record the amplitude of the seismic waves reflected by subsur face formation boundaries. 10. Since only one shot is recorded for any subsurface reflection point. and 11 are older and have only resistivity and spontaneous potential logs. It is scaled from 0% to 25OJo. a seismic source is detonated at the location indicated on the map. 4. Log measurements have a good vertical resolution and can be used for accurate forma tion evaluation. From left to right. but formation tops can still be picked accurately. Bound water fraction (water chemically bound to clay). MOINARD • Lefthand track: porosity analysis The left curve is the effective porosity. right to left. only a few feet away from the wellbore. and reflectors are picked from the analog records. 3. shaded with bricks. and one VSP in well 2. Calcite fraction. This is ac ceptable because the reflector being mapped is very strong and continuous throughout the area. and 5. Their main limitation is that their depth of investigation extends. Clay fraction. which correspond to oil and water volumes.coverage at low cost. Pore volume. no shading. at most. • Righthand track: volumetric analysis The right track is divided into five areas whose width correspond to fractions of rock constituents at any given depth. no processing is done. i.
The wavelength at the depth of interest is over 100 feet and the vertical resolution is poor. Stacking the common depth point records improves signaltonoise ratio and eliminates nearsurface multiple reflections. a seismic source is detonated on the surface near the wellbore.APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF 97 of reflected waves is recorded each time by all geophones. from the bottom of the well up to the surface. The seismic lines provide a con tinuous lateral coverage of the formation tops. To help correlate seismic events (in time) to formation tops (in depth) a vertical seismic profile (VSP) was recorded in this well. but different sourcegeophones spacings (hence the name common depth point. This means that each trace was obtained by combining six different sourcereceiver offsets. Positive amplitudes are shaded in black to make correlation from trace to trace easier. The procedure is repeated with the geophone anchored at depths varied in 100foot in crements. For each trace. The seismic lines used in this study are sixfold COP.!rface. The vertical axis is twoway time. near shot point 18. With this technique. Shot point numbers are referenced on the top. or the time it takes a seismic wave to go down to a reflector and bounce back up to the sl. The records can then be sorted and combined in such a manner that several records correspond to the same subsurface reflec tion point. . but two limitations are obvious: • The vertical axis is time. that is. or COP). and the whole seismic wave train is recorded by a geophone lowered into the well on the wireline. Vertical Seismic Profile Well 2 is located only 150 feet from seismic line B. Fig. Line B is shown on figure 3. the horizon tal displacement is the amplitude of the geophone vibration. boundaries between formations of high acoustic impedance contrast. The horizontal axis is distance along the line. not depth. 3 Seismic Section B The dark bands of high amplitude indicate strong seismic reflectors. • The frequency of the seismic signal is low (less than 100 Hz).
• The geophone is downhole. through the VSP. The final result of the VSP processing is a highresolution seismic trace. This trace can be easily correlated with the CDP line in the vicinity of the well. the strong reflector at 0.98 L MOINARD This measurement offers three advantages: • The depth of the geophone and the time it takes the seismic impulse to arrive there are known: an accurate timedepth relationship can be established. Using this continuous velocity measurement. the acoustic velocity of the formation was measured everyonehalf foot with wireline logs. This allows us to develop deconvolution operators to process the seismic signal. • Unlike with surface seismic. 4 Timescaled log analysis with VSP data . therefore.726 seconds is the top of the Caddo limestone. the downgoing wave train is recorded as well as the upgo ing wave train. The measured depths have also been shifted to seismic reference datum (SRD). This display is shown on figure 4. it has a better vertical resolution. which is the ideal seismic response at the well location. near the reflectors of interest. For instance. The signal is much less attenuated and has a higher frequency content. All seismic events on the CDP line can be correlated. The seismic signal travels only onehalf the distance it does with surface seismic records and crosses the high at tenuation weathered layer only once. the log analysis displayed on figure 2 with a linear depth scale can be rescaled and displayed with a linear time· scale. As mentioned above. Fig. with geologic boundaries. together with the processed VSP trace (replicated seven times to enhance reflectors).
NW · 5[ ~_~~~ .203 pairs). "[J'I>.000 feet. This semivariogram is shown on figure 5.. NS. few points will be extrapolated very far." DIR!:C11 :l • . . where all orientations are combined. the pairs are also subdivided into four orientation classes: EW. At a distance of about 5. We can therefore safely assume that the spatial variations are isotropic and use the mean semivariogram.. Five curves are shown. about 3. 2.. This indicates isotropy up to this distance. GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC DATA The first step of the study was the geostatistical analysis of the seismic data.000 feet.. ~. Between 1. All curves overlay up to a distance of 1. there is a large difference between the northeast . The regional drift used for this analysis is a plane fitted through the data points by least squares.. Fig.. containing for each shot location the coordinates x and y and the two way time to the Caddo limestone. .000 feet. Each of the dashed lines corresponds to one orientation. A digital data file was built. The width of the first distance class is 125 feet. 3. there is a slight amount of inisotropy.APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF 99 Twoway times to the top of the Caddo limestone were picked on all traces of the CPO lines and on the singlefold records.000 feet. In addition to distance.I: 50! • . The pairs are grouped according to the distance between points.NCSlol " ~ .~ ( . . NWSE. read from the seismic sections and the singlefold records.NS o ~ _ _ _ _~_ __ ~ ~ ~ . NESW."". Since seismic data coverage is fairly dense. and the solid line is the mean semivariogram. . The range is clearly defined.000 and 3. The empirical semivariogram of the time residuals was computed from 238 data points (28. where the horizontal axis is distance in feet and the vertical axis is the half mean square difference in square seconds. Beyond 3. 5 Directional semivariograms of time residuals Three important features can be noticed: 1.000 feet anisotropy becomes much stronger. the width for all others is 250 feet.
and • Shape: "spherical.000 to 5. The range . The formation is very continuous. We will therefore expect more continuity in that direction. ~. We can therefore expect a structure that is about 4. MOINARD southwest semivariogram and the northwestsoutheast semivariogram.~ . all curves become close together again..800 feet . As before. At about 7.000 feet across and elongated in the northeast southwest direction. It uses the following parameters: • Nugget effect: 1 millisecond squared. • Sill: 28 milliseconds squared. The "spherical" shape of the semivariogram is a frequent occur rence with seismic data. and there are no faults in the area of interest. • Range: 2. For more clarity. the mean semivariogram of time residuals has been redrawn on figure 6.000 feet away in the southeast or northwest direction. This is a consequence of the smooth shape of the reflector as shown on figure 3. and the vertical axis is onehalf the mean squared differences 0r in square seconds.is consistent with the size of structures encollntered in that area. 6 Mean semivariogram of time residuals The dotted line is the analytical model fitted on the empirical data. "'~~ ~ : .800 feet. .000 feet. the northeastsouthwest semivariogram is somewhat lower than the other ones. the horizon tal axis is distance in feet. At distances shorter than the range.2. . Several apriori conclusions can be derived from the shape of the semivariogram and the knowledge of geological structures found in the area. .I Fig. where only distance classes having more than 100 pairs are plotted.000 to 5. The sharp decrease in the northwestsoutheast semivariogram at 4.500 feet implies that pairs of points 4. It is also probable that a similar structure may be located 4." The nugget effect is unusually small.500 apart span the whole structure.100 L.
an interpolation method to compute a grid would have to be chosen arbitrarily. using a spline interpolation routine. 8 Top of Caddo from well data only . With 11 points. It shows a single massive structure in the right half of the area studies. where time is converted to depth. Figure 8 is a contour map drawn from these 11 points. It is oriented roughly northeast southwest. STRUCTURE MAP The subsea depth of the Caddo lime is known at 11 points only (the well locations). This interpolation will be used in the next phase. A contour map drawn from this grid is shown on figure 7. The grid mesh size was 200 feet in each direction. This confirms what was inferred from the periodicity of the northwestsoutheast directional semivariogram. Fig. The contour interval is 2 milliseconds. 7 Twoway time to top of Caddo The main structure is located in the center of the map. A second structure is visible to the southeast. there are too few pairs (55) to compute an empirical semivariogram from the data. time was interpolated at the locations of wells which did not have borehole time measurements. as was inferred from the analysis of the directional semivariograms.000 feet away. Fig. the semivariogram described above. In addition to the grid nodes. Without external information. about 5. time data were interpolated at each node of a regular grid covering the area of in terest. and a linear drift.APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF 101 Using the time data shown on figure 1.
It differs greatly from the map computed from depth data only. the drift is taken into account by introducing n drift functions. From a practical stand point. of degree 0. The most serious difficulty is obtaining the variogram of depth residuals. which is well defined: "spherical" shape and 2. x 2. this amounts to adding n lines and col umns to the matrix of covariances and n dimensions to the vector of the kriging weights. instead of functions of x and y.800foot range. we have a measure of the twoway time from the seismic reference datum (SRD) to the Caddo top. we need some correlation between time and depth. This last number controls the variance of the estimation error. . The contour map drawn from the depth grid is shown on figure 9. Since time is now known at all grid nodes and at the locations of the data points. For lack of a better model.e. 1. the time variance is usually much smaller than the variance of the depth estimation error and can be safely assumed to be negligible.102 L. The seismic data have a much denser areal coverage than the well data. In the vicinity of the well locations. but relative values between grid points should still be usable. we assumed a depth semivariogram similar to the time semivariogram. In matrix form. so. One of the conditions of the kriging estimator is to minimize the variance of the estima tion error. xl. we will not be able to rely too heavily on the absolute value of the computed estima tion error. These are usually monomials. in addition to depth. In all wells. let alone a variance. MOINARD Since the seismic data offer a better areal coverage than the well data. and 2. To link these two data sets. func tions of time can be used for drift. at any point. one would like to use these data to help the interpolation of formation tops.. this can be ignored. however. The shape now follows that of the time map. times were not measured but interpolated to most well loca tions. i. xy. This variance is therefore computed at each grid point. In universal kriging. It was set equal to the variance of the 11 depth residuals and is therefore probably pessimistic. It provides a good measure ment of the uncertainty of the depth computation. The nugget effect was set to zero to force the contours to honor the data points. The method has been incorporated in the "BLUPACK" program and is virtually transparent to the user. since the drift is a linear function of time. Besides. thereby making the timedepth relationship weaker. This time was either measured directly in the borehole with VSP or "check shots" or interpolated from nearby seismic shotpoints as shown above. which are functions of the x and y coordinates. Figure 10 is a contour map of the standard deviation of the depth estimation error. The value of the sill is the only weak point. First. Several conceptual problems are associated with the method. it departs from the time map and matches measured depths of those locations. and y2. the variance of the time estimation error at the grid nodes is assumed equal to zero. yl. No serious statistical inference can be drawn from 11 points: one can hardly compute a valid mean. The depth grid was computed using this semivariogram and a linear function of time for the drift. conse quently. The standard deviation is between 10 and 20 feet for most of the area of interest except near the wells. These values seem high. xo.
Dobrin: "Introduction to Geophysical Prospecting. . who pro cessed the VSP data. In addition to the case reviewed here. June 2730. Milton B. P. Delhomme." paper presented at the 1983 SPWLA Annual Logging Symposium. finding a formation top to feet too high or too low in a new well is an everyday occurrence in the oil patch. 1976. 9 Top of Caddo from all data Fig." McGraw Hill. especially when time and depth are accurately correlated by a vertical seismic profile. However. PelissierCombescure: "Application of Geostatistical Analysis to the Evaluation of Petroleum Reservoirs with Well Logs. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author thanks Tom Roach III of Ashtola Oil Co. Bob A.Lennart Tier. and Pierre Delfiner. . Hardage: "Vertical Seismic Profiling. Fig. 10Standard deviation of the estimation error CONCLUSIONS The universal kriging interpolation method can be used to generate an accurate contour map using both seismic data and wireline log data when only a few wells have been drilled." Geophysical Press. who developed the external drift method describ ed in the paper and provided timely advice and recommendations while this study was car ried out. 1983. and J. REFERENCES P. who interpreted the seismic data. It makes best use of the wide areal coverage of seismIc measurements and the good depth resolution provided by wireline logs. Delfiner. and these numbers may well be valid after all. they are controlled by an illdefined parameter: the variance of the depth residuals. who agreed to release these data for publication. this method has been applied successfully to several other structures from Michigan to south Texas..APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO THE MAPPING OF A REEF 103 but as mentioned above. Rose Barnstead. J.
STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD Alain GALLI. Armstrong (eds. which are numerous but inaccurate. INTRODUCTION Since 1968 the French Gas Company (Gaz de France) has been storing natural gas in an anticlinal structure at ContresChemery which is situated 30 km south of Blois (in the Loire Valley). The main reservoir R2 is 40 m in thickness and is overlain by 10 to 12 m of variegated clay. The successive improvements made in the maps as more information became available will be stressed. Its shape is rather complicated. The gas is stored inside the upper Triassic sandstone which lies 1100 m below the surface. Centre de Geostatistique. . to give more accurate contour maps and also to model faults. with that from a small number of wells. ABSTRACT This paper shows how the external drift method can be used to combine data from seismic campaigns. the Chemery reservoir which was the largest ~n France. and the top of the structure is 80 m above the level of the closure. 105119. France. Several interbedded sandstones (R1) in which gas is not stored. ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS. France. it is limited by a vertical fault with a throw of up to 40 m. together with the economic consequences of this. 1.5 billion m3 . Matheron and M. Gilbert MEUNIER. 105 C. © l <Nil by D. Reidel Publishing Company. are followed by thick series containing clays. was thought to have a capacity of 4. Fontainebleau. dolomites and limestones at the base of the Jurassic sequence. The surface area ~s about 30 km2. GAZ DE FRANCE. At the western end.). At the end of 1981. Ceostatistical Case Studies. in particular it has two domes. Paris.
only 3.5 billion m3 of gas could e ffectively be stored. Four sets of data were available. This meant that in order to avoid leakages. (3) 3 extra wells which had been drilled on the western side to create the hydraulic barrier. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY This case study shows how additional information can be incor porated. 2. The preferential migration was due to several factors: (1) The petrophysical characteristics of the reservoir are better in the center and the west compared to the northern and eastern parts. (see Figure 1) and . (3) To set up a hydraulic barrier by injecting water under pressure down the western wells in order to stop the gas from migrating. and how two types of information (data from wells and from seismic campaigns) were combined so as to improve the estimates obtained in the NW part of the reservoir. The zone under study is a rectangle 9 x 8 km. (2) 76 wells where the depth to the top of the reservoir had been measured. (1) an initial seismic campaign containing 1358 sample points over a very large area. The solutions adopted in the first instance were: (1) To carry out a new geostatistical study of the outer zones using the available information from the wells and the different seismic campaigns. (2) The clay interbedding (of variable size and thickness) prevents gas from filling up the lower layers completely. Two wells on the SE corner were to be used to extract water when necessary.106 A. (3) The presence of the fault in the west allows the gas to penetrate the lower layers there. (2) To inject gas preferentially 1n the deeper layers in the center and along the eastern edge. GALLI AND G. MEUNIER However injection tests showed that the gas moved preferentially westward toward the outer zone.
.. . The wells numbered from 1 to 10 were used to compare the different kriging estimators. Figure shows the location of the wells._'. it is natural to use them all to estimate the values of one of them. The other smaller faults were not digitized for this study. .. Figure 1..... Only two major faults (NS and EW) exist in the area.. we shall briefly describe the external drift method which was used to combine the seismic information and the well data.... 3.. ..STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD 107 (4) a second....  . The first seismic campaign did not show up the EW fault.. Before presenting the steps in the study.. 2. . The first method provided by . For each seismic campaign. .... 79 wells plus the two faults..... Figures 2 and 3 show the measure points for the two seismic campaigns. 5 are the 3 extra wells. we had the return times.... THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD When several correlated variables have been measured at various points in the same area. Nos 4. more recent seismic campaign designed to clarify the closure in the NW corner (164 points).. The discovery of this EW fault was the major improvement that resulted from the new campaign. . . .
Figure 2. .... .... . ..... ~ . ... MEUNIER .. GALLI AND G...!O8 A.... Only one fault was found . .... . .. .. The first seismic campalgn. Figure 3. . ..... ........ :t... .  : .. The second seismic campaign with the newly discovered EW fault.
The well data are accurate but scarce.F. The problem was to determine the degree k of the drift and the generalized covariance which accurately represents the data.5 ms Mean Value 715.1. The faults were considered as barriers. See Matheron (1973) and Galli and Renard (1986) for details on I. and by Delfiner (1983). However it is seldom used in practice because of the difficulty of inferring the crosscovariances and of finding a suitable kriging neigh bourhood. was used. The external drift method is most commonly applied to variables that measure the same phenomenon in different ways e.R.Fk. THE STEPS IN THE STUDY The location of both faults was taken into account throughout the structural analysis except where specifically mentioned. This is not new. The EW fault was only taken into account in the last part of the study when the data from the second seismic campaignwhich revealed its presence. locally linear) and the generalized covariance was: . Instead of using polynomial functions to characterize the drift of the reservoir.R. The data were clearly not stationary (and this was confirmed by the structural analysis). It was proposed by Matheron in the 1970's and has been used by Delhomme (1979) in the original study on the Chemery reservoir for G. A detailed description is given in the Appendix.3 ms The degree of the drift was k =1 (i.g. The seismic data give the overall shape of the reservoir with poor local precision. 4. First Seismic Study Minimum Value 647 ms Maximum Value 845 ms Variance 1332 ms 2 Standard Deviation 36. The automatic fitting procedure RECO in the program BLUEPACK was used for this.Fk.D. we use the shape as given by the seismic data as an external drift when we krige the well data. 1984). 4.STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD 109 geostatistics for doing this is cokriging. The technique has also been used to model faults (Marechal. the depth of a geological horizon measured by wells and by seismic campaigns. and only cover a small area. Another geostatistical technique for incorporating data from other variables is the external drift method. so we used I.e. Scaling problems arise due to the difficulty in measuring the velocity of propagation.
MEUNIER K(h) = . A 16 point neighbourhood was used . It is important to note that when the value at points on a seismic profile is estimated. 5 ms).2 The Well Data Minimum Value 965 m Maximum Value 1095 m .110 A. which will be used as the external drift function later .1 ms.0. In this case the mean square error was 5. The difference between the kriged value and the true value is then calculated . The map obtained by llsing this model to krige the first set of seismic data is given Figure 4 .095 Ihl + 0. which compares favourably with the standard deviation of the data (36 . Figure 4. The contour map obtained by kriging the first seismic campaign.4 h 2 log h (The second covariance term is a 'spline' covariance). GALLI AND G . and their value is kriged as if they were unknown. Points are dropped out one by one. 4. there are always lots of neighbouring points and so the crossvalidation errors are always lower than for isolated points.25 x 10. The model was then tested by crossvalidation.
3. It is interesting to note that in this case the best results for the crossvalidation were obtained using a unique neighbourhood. only the points on the western edge of the reservoir could be used. the experimental standard error drops from 13 m to 9. we can see that there is only one dome (instead of two) in the central part. This illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of this technique quite clearly. Firstly. . it is important to realize that one of the largest errors (38 m) occurs at point No 10 which lies to the west of the NS fault line (Figure 1). Using the Seismic Data as an External Drift The structural analysis and the crossvalidation tests were then carried out on the well data using the seismic information as an external drift. 4.STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD III Variance 1080 m2 Standard Deviation 32. which leads to the idea of kriging the well data without including the faults as such but using the seismic map as the external drift. The experimental standard deviation for the crossvalidation was about 13 m.8 m Mean Value 1011 m The structural analysis of the well data gave a linear drift (k=1) with generalized covariance K(h) = 0. The anomaly near the NS fault is much better estimated (the error is less than 20 m now). The throw of the faults has been taken into account in the kriged map obtained from the seismic data. If this were done. it would be possible to increase the kriging neighbourhood or to work with a unique neighbourhood. the depth to the first sand level in one well can be quite different to that in an adjacent one because of the type of reservoir. This shows that although the external drift gives the overall shape of the reservoir. So when it was reestimated. Alternatively for interbedded or lenticular reservoirs. it does not help a great deal in densely sampled areas. but the errors still range from 10 to 27 m in the central area where there is a lot of data.3 h 2 log h Because of the presence of the faults. a 6 point neighbourhood was used. There is one other interesting application for the external drift method.2 m. This may be due to several factors. Local variations in the velocity may exist between the centre and the deeper edge areas. When judging this. However on the contour map of the seismic information (Figure 4).
We now present this step. we have numbered the points from 1 through to 10. and if the point happens to lie on the boundary. So we will have a closer look at the errors in this area. Secondly if we compare this figure with Figure 4. To simplify the discussion. However a very large value means a very poor fit in the neighbourhood around that particular point. GALLI AND G. This type of problem is a typical case of when to use the external drift method. 4 and 5 are the new wells. Since these new values are considered to be more reliable than the earlier ones where the second fault was not even apparent. MEUNIER Figure 5 presents the kriged contour map obtained using just the well data in a pseudounique neighbourhood (Renard and Yancey. This model should have the same shape as the second seismic campaign in the northwest zone. Second Seismic Campaign Minimum value 635 ms Maximum value 705 ms Variance 206 ms 2 Standard deviation 14. Although Figure shows the two faults. So it is important to note the spatial location of the errors too. only the NS fault has been used in calculations up to this point.4. This choice can be criticized since it is not robust against outliers. However because much of the map . but should be like the initial modeL elsewhere. a new model of the whole seismic is required. the closure of the reservoir is not well known. Points 2. The EW fault was first introduced together with the data from the second seismic campaign.3 ms Mean value 677 ms The second seismic campaign was carried out to clarify the shape of the reservoir in the northwest zone (Figure 7). The fault was taken into account by means of the seismic drift.112 A. 1984). while Figure 6 presents the kriged contour map obtained using the well data in a unique neighbourhood with the original seismic information as external drift. we see that the values obtained from the second campaign are lower than for the preceding one. Up till this point we have used cross validation to test the quality of a model because if using the seismic information in the form of an external drift improves the quality of the fit when it is reestimated. The criterion used to judge whether the fit was better was the mean square error. then the additional information is worthwhile. 4. In our case the problem of accurately defining the closure of the reservoir in the northwest sector is particularly important.
. The kriged contour map obtained using the data from 76 wells with the seismic information as the external drift (unique neighbourhood) . The kriged contour map obtained using the data from 76 wells in a pseudounique neighbourhood (a 6 point neighbourhood).. : .STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD 113 Figure 5. Figure 6.
GALLI AND G. The external drift model which incorporates the information from both seismic campaigns. MEUNIER Figure 7. The contour map obtained from the second seismic campaign.114 A. . Figure 8.
This will be rectified in the forthcoming version.7 m 9. with only one fault.7 m.0 m 3. 4.0 m .5. . These were obtained respectively using: .STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD 115 must be obtained by extrapolating.8 m . they could still be improved.the only 79 wells plus the two faults .0 m .13.0 m 4. Since our objective is to determine the closure it is interesting to look at some of the wells (Nos 2. .8.7. (Figure 9). TABLE 1. better than the other two (especially for the criticals wells Nos 3 and 4).the 79 wells with the new model obtained the second seismic campaign shown in Figure 8 as the external drift (Figure 10).9 m . So we had to krige the data from the second campaign using the first seismic information as the external drift in several steps. First Second Third Well No Difference Difference Difference 2 . The differences between the estimates and the actual values at the ten wells shown on Figure 1 were calculated. 12.e. Final Step The three estimates of the northwest zone can now be compared. These are presented in Table 1. The corres ponding standard deviations were 14.6.5 m. 3.9 m 4 .0 m .8 m 5 3. Although the results are reasonably good (Figure 8).1 m 3 8. But in the current version of BLUEPACK.15. 4 and 5) more closely.8 m and 7.3 m From this it is clear that the new model of the seismic information describes the shape of the reservoir in this area where the closure is a problem.the 79 wells with the first seismic data as the external drift i.4. the external drift option cannot be used with the pseudounique neighbourhood.5. Differences between 3 kriged values and the actual values. we should use the pseudo unique neighbourhood.
MEUNIER Figure 9. . Kriged contour map obtained using data from all 79 wells. 8) as the external drift. with the combined seismic map (Fig. with the first seismic campaign as the external drift. Figure 10. GALLI AND G. Kriged contour map obtained using data from all wells.116 A.
vertical shading. Since a slight change in the level here would significantly change the capacity of the reservoir. CONCLUSION The interpretation of the structure that was made at the end of 1981 (Figure 6) shows the closure at the western edge at the level of approximately 1055 m below sea level. (Figure 3). The three wells drilled later on in order to inject water and to control this.shading at 45·. The contour map made at this time (Figure 9) shows that the levels in the west where gas could escape are more likely to be about 1065 m below sea level. This showed that the northern edge of the Chemery reservoir is cut off by a fault and on the southern side of this. showed that the levels in this area were from about 5 m to 18 m lower than had been expected. This suggests that the level of the closure is probably . zones where the kriging standard deviation is between 10m and 15m. so it was decided not to set up the hydraulic barrier as had been planned earlier. an additional seismic campaigm was undertaken in this area in 1982. 5.STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT METHOD 117 Figure 11. the ground has subsided . except for: . . but there is no way of being certain about this. where the kriging standard deviation exceeds 15m. Same contour map as for Figure 10. This has been criticized .
France. Pelissier Combescure J. France. Canada. Proc. CIS! Petrole Service. Centre de Geostistique.118 A. ed G. Mallet.5 billion m3 . Ecole des Mines de Paris. 679690. Matheron. Prob . The maps were obtained using the program MAP. Ecole des Mines de Paris. J.1. Renard. . Verly. BLUEPACK3D Manual. NATO ASI "Geostatistics for Natural Resources Charac terization". (1983): Application of Geostatistical Analysis to the Evaluation of Petroleum Reservoirs with Well Logs. A. Fontainebleau. P. . which means that as a result of the additional studies.. G. pp. Renard. Descriptions of commands INT and MAP. 24th Annual Login Symposium Calgary. Internal Report. (1984) : Kriging Seismic Data in Presence of Faults. Centre d'Informatique Geologique.. A.L. Holland.P . All the estimates were obtained using the program BLUEPACK3D. Reidel. Internal Report. ENSMP. Marechal. Reidel. D. Release 4. Appl. (1984): Automatic contouring with the GEOL system. (1986): BLUEPACK Geostatistical Background. Delhomme J. ( 1979): Etude de la geometrie du reservoir de Chemery. Holland. 271 294. Internal Report. MEUNIER between 1067 and 1070 m below sea level (Figure 10 and 11). the capacity of the reservoir is now estimated to be more than 5 billion m3 instead of merely 3. . Centre de Geostatistique. 439468. Verly. GALLI AND G. P. (1984): Smoothing Discontinuities when Extrapolating using Moving Neighbourhoods. Delhomme. Dordrecht. REFERENCES Delfiner. Fontainebleau. ed G.. ENSMP. Galli. . Fontainebleau. Dordrecht. Fontainebleau. Proc. J. 2 pp. MAP Manual. (1973): The Intrinsic Random Functions and their Applications. Centre de Geostatistique. France. pp. D. NATO ASI "Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization". Adv.
. . then the kriging estimator obtained in this way. + 1: ~QSQ(Xj) 1 1J K. . Then Z(x) = f£(x) at all points. that seem more appropriate.stationary geostatistics.SQ(X..n i £ 1: A. + [ ~£f£(xj) K· j 1. K. provided that the variable Z(x) coincides with this shape function.STUDY OF A GAS RESERVOIR USING THE EXTERNAL DRIFT MET HOD 119 APPENDIX In non .. by imposing the universality conditions on the estimator Z*(x) = [ 'A Z . Consequently.m i The second set of equations. . So the kriging estimator is exactly the same as Z(x) at all points. L i where S2(x) is the square of S 1 (x) ( etc. the drift (or trend) is usually modelled using polynomials denoted by f£(x).. The new kriging system is [ A. f£(x. Mathematical and practical considerations help us choose these ... Suppose that Z(x) exactly coincides with one of the drift functions f£(x) . .. K. the kriging interpolator is exact for the drift functions..) 1 1 SQ(x) Q = 1.n 1 1J JX 1 £ [ 'A 1. f£(x a ) f£(x) (because of the universality conditions) Z (x) . Similarly if we replace the polynomial drift functions by another set of local shape functions S(x). can be interpreted as follows. . JX j = 1. called the universality conditions. . The corresponding kriging system is [ 'A. . then a a Z* (x) ['A Z(X) a a [ \1. . that is. will also be exactly identical to the shape function at all points.) 1 = f£(x) £ 1. .
1. France. 1.THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE Ch. 121 G. It consists of a paleozoic dolomitic bedrock which is highly fractured. . on both predicted and recovered results. Ecole Nationale Superieure des Techniques Industrielles et des Mines d'Ales. This has led to an orebody with structures ranging from a decimetric scale up to a scale of about one hundred metres. DESCRIPTION OF THE GEOLOGY AND THE MINING METHOD 1. Armstrong (eds. dissolution cavities. Matheron and M. and has been covered over by black triasic shales.G. Reidel Publishing Company.M.). karstic refilling. The development of the mineralisation was caused by the flow of fluids through this fracture network resulting in fissured ore. © l <Nil by D. KAVOURINOS C.. 121133. This paper shows the influence of the number of analysed blastholes and of the quality of this sampling. The Esperance Sector Three sectors within the PbZnAg mine at the Malines (France) are currently mInIng sulphide deposits related to karstic phenomena superimposed on late hercynian fracturation. 6 avenue de Clavieres. etc. This casestudy was made on one of these three sectors (the Esperance sector) which is at present In the reconnaissance phase of development. 30107 ALES. ABSTRACT The selection of mining blocks is rarely performed on their true grades but on estimators from their blastholes.M. Geostatistical Case Studies. The fractures are oriented in two principal directions (40' Nand 110' N).
5 m deep.5 m up to 3 m.For a total of 271 blocks. Several types of data were used in this casestudy: .Underground drillholes. Blocks arc selected for treatment if the estimated qrade is above the cut off grade. The mining selection unit in the galeries is an ore block 3 m hi(jh. The objective of this ('asc'study.5 m lonq) which had been sampled and analysed individually. 5 m 10nq and 2. and can thus be considered as being representative of the area. The Available Information. 1985). The grades from the blastholes In the 24 blocks were used to model the grade distribution in this area.For each of 24 selection blocks we had between 9 and 20 blastholes (2.122 CH. The objective of this work is to locate the orebody. The other types of data were used to check the change of support model used and to test for sampling problems. the zinc variogram is composed of two structures. This information will then be used to define the areas to be mined.2. 1. The average grades for the underground drillholes and the blastholes were almost identical (3. Most of the cored sections were 1 m in length but in a few cases their length ranged from 1. we had the estimated grade obtained. which was part of a doctoratc thesis (Kavourinos. as is usual at this mine. In this area. . and to determine its size and shape.74% Zn). . from a single analysis of the mud from 12 of its blastholes. . ranging in direction from sub horizontal to subvertical. was to study the influence of the number of blast holes used to estimate the block grade and the quality of the samplinq on the production figures. The information available for evaluating its grade comes from the blastholc~. KA VOURINOS The reconnaissance work consists of development headings at the base of the mineralisation at 30 to 50 m intervals. one with a range of 1 m and the other of 6 m. together with cored underground drillholes drilled up into the orebody.
MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF BLOCK GRADES 2.1.J 0.~ 0. we first weighted the distribution of the 353 blastholes contained in the 24 blocks by the number of blastholes per block (which varied between 9 and 20) to take account of the irregular sampling density.THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 123 2.S 0. A model using 30 Hermite polynomials was then fitted to this (Figure 1).8 0.2 0.0 o. 1978). with this in mind. . This is obtained by fitting a model to the empirical distribution of the sample grades by using an expansion in terms of Hermite polynomials (Matheron.' O. z 0 10 12 16 18 20 Figure 1 . The ~xperimental blasthole cumulative distribution (1) and the fitted model obtained using 30 Hermite polynomials (2). 1.1 O.1 0. The 353 weighted sample grades were then ranked to obtain the experimental blastholes grade distribution. The Distribution of the Samples The first step in modelling the distributions of block grades and of their estimator is to fit a model to the blast hole distribu tion.6 o.
The objective of comparing these three esti mators is to evaluate the influence of the number of blastholes on the quality of the estimator. Q(z) (the metal expressed as a function of the cutoff grade Z) and T(z) (the are as a function of the cutoff grade) with those obtained experi mentally from the available data. (To take account of the change of support. 4 and 12 blastholes (respectively) are shown In Figure 3. 3. The discretized gaussian model (Matheron. The objective is to evaluate how much metal will be lost by selecting the blocks for mining on the basis of the three estimators described earlier.The estimated grades of 271 mining blocks obtained by averaging the 12 blastholes in it. Figure 2 shows the comparison between the three sets of observed and predicted curves for (a) the regrouped cores from the underground holes and (b) the estimated block grades. The loss is due to selection errors: rich blocks estimated as being poor and so not recovered. FINDING THE OPTIMAL ESTIMATOR 3. KA VOURINOS 2.1. we regrouped sets of 12 consecutive cores from each drillhole).2. The close agreement between the observed curves and the predicted ones confirms the change of support model used. The data used for this test were of two types: .The cores from the underground drillholes. We compared the predicted curves of Q(T) (the recovered metal expressed as a function of the are recovered T).2. the model will then be used to predict the recoverable reserves as a function of the estimator used for the selection blocks. we compared the predicted figures given by the model with the figures for two known distributions.124 CH. Having checked this. and poor blocks estimated as being rich and so being recovered. The change of support. Both are and metal are expressed as percentages of the totals. In order to test the appropriateness of this model in our case. Three Estimators The layouts of the blast holes for three estimators which use the average grade from 1. 1978) was used for changing the support. . We calculated the loss relative to the recovery in the ideal case where the true grades of blocks are all known. 3. . The Information Effect.
.. . I. . '" •f I • 2 2 •• .. .. •• .THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 125 10. . '" '" '" '" I. 100 ... I. 100 o· .. I. . I. . I.... .... lO . "Xl . . .. a regrouped cores from the underground holes b : estimated block grades. I. '" .. I' " '2 " • b . '" '" ... " Figure 2.. .. . 20 '" '" I .. 0 . l 2 I. .. a '" 0 . •• •• " I. 20 \0 . . . '" T \00 •• /0 '" . '" . • ... '" JO I. 100 .. . .'" '" .. .. Gradetonnage curves: predicted (continuous line) versus experimental (dotted line) ......0 '" '" I.
5m 0.50 m I I 1 m 3 00 m • • E • • 5m 1.126 CH.~~ I 2.50m 2. .25m r • • • •  E. 1 I 0E E f • • • •d Il') 0 q rC') E I I ' • • • • . KA VOURINOS .. ' Figure 3. Layout of blastholes for the three estimators. ~ E Il') .
Ie. 9. . Loss of metal when 40% of total tonnage lS recovered. 07 3.62 (ideal case) Loss of metal 9 . 213. 31'1 . 40 . T Figure 4. 40. 76 .41 5.1 1 5. :1313 .55 obtained Average grade 5. 70 . 39.THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 127 1 O. 90.24 as % of ideal Table 1. 9 . a 50 .73 1 . Metal recovered with a selection made on (from top to bottom) : . I 100. 10 . I e . 49 . 613. 80. 613 . 29 .62 5.the estimated grade obtained using: 12 blastholes (dotted lines) 4 blastholes (dashes) 1 blasthole (dotdash) N' of blastholes used 1 4 12 Average grade 5 . 50 . 90 . 60 . 19 . 813 . 80 .62 5. I 913 .the real grade (continuous line) . 50. 29 . 100 .
The sampling procedure is as follows: . 3. This estimator is accurate in this respect (see Table 2).62% In the ideal case.128 CH. For example r when 40% of the total tonnage is recovered r the predicted average grades for the estimators based on 1 and 4 blastholes r are 7. The Effect of Support Size.1. The Sampling Procedure for the Blastholes. In the other cases r it leads to a systematic overestimation of the quantity of metal that could be recovered.98% respectivelYr compared to 5.the real grades . From this r we see that using the predicted grades as a reference for judging the performance of the miners is only meaningful for the estimator based on 12 blastholes.the estimated grades obtained using 1r 4 or 12 blastholes. THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITY OF THE SAMPLING ON THE PRODUCTION FIGURES 4. In the Esperance sector of the miner the block grades are estimated by analysing the grade of the 12 blastholes shown in Figure 3. (This is the recovery for the mine studied). Figure 5 shows the predicted curve for the quantity of metal recovered as a function of the recovered tonnage for the three estimators r and also the curve for the ideal case where the selection is made on the true grades.11% and 5. Comparing the predicted curves with the ideal one r we see two different phenomena: 1) For the estimators based on 1 or 4 blasthole grades r the predictions are above the quantity of metal for the ideal case. KA VOURINOS Figure 4 shows the relationship between the quantity of metal recovered and the quantity of are recovered when the selection is made on . 2) For the estimator based on 12 blastholes r the predicted recovered metal quantities are almost the same as for the ideal case. The loss of metal clearly decreases as the number of blastholes used increases.3. 4. Table 1 shows Lhe 10s5 of metal (expressed as a percentage) corresponding to the different estimators r for the case where the recovered tonnage is 40% of the total tonnage.
I I S0 . O. / 60 . ! 00 . 4. / / 60 . and . / / 70 .40 0. I I I 60 .one on top of each other.62 (ideal case) 5. . / / / / / / 60 . 70 . 10 . 1 0. 3 0. 20 . 30 .11 5. I ':l I I 40 . 60 .62 Loss of metal 26.the average of 4 blastholes (dashes). Predicted metal with a selection made on (from top to bottom) : . 40 . the average of 12 blast holes and the real block grade. Differences between the predictions based on an estimator and the ideal case when 40% of the total tonnage is recovered.35 as \ of ideal Table 2.50 6. 90 . / / / 70 . 10 . :013 . e . 13 ' 0. le 0 .98 5.1 blasthole (dotdash) .62 5. 30 . B0 . N° OF BLASTHOLES USED 1 4 12 Average grade 7. T Figure 5. Q 50. 20 .60 predicted Average grade 5.THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 129 e. 50 . 90 .0 . 20 . . I I I I I I 50 .. se .
2. . The sampling procedure eliminates any chances of systematic error. Figure 6 shows the relationship between the quantity of metal recovered and the ore recovered. the samples were mixed together to give an overall sample. . 4. This gives the estimated grade of the block. . This was also confirmed by the production figures for the 271 blocks mined during the 8 months period that this procedure was used. Table 3 gives the numerical results when 40\ of the total tonnage is recovered.after this has been done for all 12 holes.the mud was then homogenized manually and a sample taken. .this overall sample was sent to the laboratory for analysis. It is clear that the loss of metal is less for Z*12 (and also for Z*4) than for Z*V. The fact that no systematic sampling errors were detected in the esti mation of these blocks made it possible to use the geostatistical model to evaluate the size of the errors made when predicting the recoverable reserves. an~ also the relative difference between the predicted grade and the one for the ideal case. Table 4 shows the average grade for the ideal case. These two estimators will be dendted by Z*4 and Z*12 respectively. They had an average grade of 3.74\ compared to an overall average of 3. the predicted average grade for Z*v and Z*1 for the case where 40\ of the total tonnage is recovered. We can now go on to compare the estimator Z*V obtained by mixing the mud from 12 blastholes which we will call the "mine esti mator" (this effectively averages the sampling errors made in each of the holes) with the estimators obtained by averaging the results from each of 4 (or 12) blastholes.76\ for the whole of the section.130 CH. The Influence of Sampling Errors on the Production Results. KA VOURINOS the drilling mud from each blaslhole was collected in a container that prevents any contact between the sample and either the face or the ground. for each of these three estimators. Figure 7 shows the predicted quantity of metal Q(T) as a function of the percentage of the total tonnage recovered for the two estimators Z*v· and Z*12 and also for the ideal case.
THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 131
1
O. 10. 2 . 30. '10. 5 0. 60 . " :3. ee. 90. : 00 .
: 00. I 10 .
91L 90 .
eo. 80.
I 70.
60. 6 .
0 50 . 50.
0 . 40 .
30.
20. 20 .
10. 10 .
~
80 . ge . 100 .
0.
T
Figure 6. Metal recovered with a selection made on (from top to
bottom) :
 the real grade Zv
 the estimator
212
 the estimator Z*
4
 the mine estimator Z*
V
*
Zv
*
Z4 *
Z12
Average grade
obtained 5.25 5.41 5.55
Average grade
5.62 5.62 5.62
(ideal case)
Loss of metal 6.58 3.73 1.24
as \ of ideal
Table 3. Loss ~f meal for the three estimators Z*v' Z*4' Z*12
when 40% of total tonnage is recovered.
132 CH. KA VOURINOS
! . 20 . 30. l in. 5 . 6 90. t 00.
! e. r r t 0
~
r~~
,.,:';
....:
90. /. 9
/.
,/
,/
80. ,/ B
,/
,/
7 ,/ 70.
,/
/
se . / s .
/
513. / 513. 0
/
/
e. /
/
30.
/, 30.
/,
/;
20 . 20.
h
!" . 10 .
0.
'0 . 10.213.30.40 . 50 .
T
Figure 7. Predicted metal:
 upper (one on top of each other) selection on Z*4 and on Z*
V
 lower (again superimposed) slection on Z*12 and on ZV'
Zv*
*
Z12
Average grade
obtained 5 . 97 5.60
Average grade
(ideal case) 5 . 62 5.62
Relative difference 6.23  0.35
Table 4. Relative differences between the predicted grade and
that in the ideal case (for the case where 40\ of
total tonnage is recovered).
THE GRADETONNAGE CURVES FOR A ZINC MINE IN FRANCE 133
We can see that even though the sampling errors are not
systematic, they nevertheless cause the recovered metal quantity
to be overestimated. This is what causes the increase in the
differences between the predicted average grade (Table 4) and the
average grade obtained (Table 3).
CONCLUSION
We have seen that using the blasthole data to estimate the mining
block grades leads to an overestimation of the recoverable
reserves even when there is no systematic sampling error. In
selective mining operations where there is commonly a marked
difference between the predicted metal recovery and the
production results, we should first see whether the difference is
due to this phenomenon before looking to other causes related to
the mining method (e.g. mixing, dilution, loss etc.).
In addition to this, the selection process based on an estimator
of the block grade leads to a loss of metal in comparison with
what could be obtained ideally if all the true grades were known.
This loss is directly related to both the quantity and the
quality of the data used. So it is clear that good sampling is of
fundamental importance to selective mining operations because
poor sampling leads to a serious drop in metal recovery and can
also mislead the miners as to their capacity to mine selectively.
REFERENCES
KAVOURINOS Ch. (1985): Estimation de la teneur des volees par
echantillonnage des boues de foration. Influence de la qualite
de l'echantillonnage sur les resultats d'exploitation. Dr.
Ing. Thesis, Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris.
MATHERON G. (1978): L'estimation globale des reserves
recuperables. Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau.
CONDITIONING BY THE PANEL GRADE FOR RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF
NONHOMOGENEOUS OREBODIES
Armando ZAUPA REMACRE
ESCOLA DE MINAS
35400 OURO PRETO MG
Brasil
ABSTRACT
There are several methods of estimating local recoverable
reserves which can be used when the data are dense relative to
the geostatistical structure. It is shown that the weight
assigned to the mean in a simple kriging of the panel to be
estimated can be used to judge whether the data are dense enough.
For panels where the data are not dense enough, the results given
by most nonlinear methods are strongly attracted toward the
overall mean, which is unsatisfactory unless the deposit is
globally stationary.
One way of overcoming this disadvantage when one wants to
estimate panel grades is to add universality conditions, but this
is not appropriate when estimating the distribution of block
grades inside a panei. In this case the estimated panel grade can
be used to condition the block grade distribution.
INTRODUCTION
Up till now, a major limitation to the use of nonlinear methods
of estimating local recoverable reserves has been the problem of
how to handle nonhomogeneous orebodies. Confronted by this
problem, Parker, Journel and Dixon (1979) used a locally fitted
model based on the local conservation of lognormality. No change
of support was involved. Another casestudy was presented by
Guibal and Remacre (1984) who studied a nonhomogeneous deposit,
where the density of the sampling grid relative to the geostatis
tical structure was such that the overall mean grade of the
135
G. Matheron and M. Armstrong (eds.), Geostatistical Case Studies, 135148.
© 1<)87 by D. Reidel Pllb/i.,"i"g Comp""y.
. (See Marechal (1984) for a comprehensive review of these techniques).. . ) in the neighbourhood. These are treated in detail in Remacre (1984). In this case we would only need local stationarity.136 A. Both of these involve simple kriging (i. Several simplifications to the multigaussian method were proposed by Guibal and Remacre (1984) and by David and Marcotte (1985). So before applying any nonlinear methods requiring strict stationarity we need a criterion for deciding whether they can reasonably be applied in a particular case. this hypothesis may be too strong. . So the mean takes on a local significance as well as a global one. then the estimator is Z(V) * where m is the (known) overall mean. If the deposit is not homogeneous. kriging with a known mean). We will show that the kriging weight assigned to the mean can be helpful in this regard. 2 . IMPORTANCE OF THE KRIGING WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO THE MEAN The two main methods used for estimating local recoverable reserves are the mUltigaussian method (MG) and disjunctive kriging (OK). The resulting estimator is a weighted average of the data in the neighbourhood. In this casestudy on a porphyry copper deposit several problems which commonly arise when estimating recoverable reserves using data on a fairly wide grid were encountered. In more difficult studies where the range of the variogram structure is about the same order of magnitude as the sampling grid size. When data are sparse relative to the variogram structure. the value of Am increases and consequently the panel estimate is drawn toward the mean value m. and vice versa for panels in poorer zones.e. This is equivalent to a linear regression on the variables. the panels in zones where the data are rich tend to be estimated as being poorer. This is one of the consequences of the hypothesis of stationarity . ZAUPA REMACRE deposit did not affect the local estimates. For example if the average grade Z(V) of a panel is being estimated from the data Zi (i ~ 1. and Am is the kriging weight assigned to the mean. which leads to ordinary kriging (or kriging with an unknown mean). In this article we shall concentrate on one particular aspect of the study: that of the finding an estimation method suitable for handling nonhomogeneous deposits. This certainly lessened the estimation problems. A universality condition [A 1 = 1 can be introduced.
particularly when the nonhomogeneity is taken into account. Under these difficult conditions which are nevertheless common in practice. They are. considerable effort is required to find appropriate estimation methods.RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 137 DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA The deposit contains 180 drillholes including 96 vertical ones going right through it (about 900m). up to a factor which is the total tonnage of the panel: . THE ESTIMATION METHOD The objective here is to estimate the recoverable reserves for panels 150m X 150m. A further 30 other inclined holes had also been drilled in the upper part of the deposit. This preferential drilling grid makes the estimation more difficult.the ore tonnage T. STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS A detailed account of the structural analysis for this deposit is given in Guibal and Touffait (1979). About 50 drillholes inclined at between 45' and 60' were also available but these were not as long as the others. which is small relative to the size of the panels.the corresponding quantity of metal Q (equal to the panel grade for a nul cutoff). . This is because the viability of the mining project is heavily dependent on the rich part. The authors observed a slight vertical drift for the first few benches. Figure 1 shows how difficult it is to get a good fit. the results were typical. The data had to be weighted (or declusterized) to obtain a representative histogram. we can ask ourselves how estimation methods based on the hypothesis of stationarity will behave. proportion of selection blocks above the cutoff grade. It is important to note that the drillhole density used to prove up the reserves is not constant throughout the deposit. Since the range of the fitted variogram model was only 120 metres. . which seems to be due to the presence of the overburden and also to the nonhomogeneity which is typical of porphyry copper deposits. As far as the variograms are concerned. The vertical direction is very well known while the horizontal is virtually unknown. There are fewer in the poorer outer area compared to the richer central zone.
As far as the distribution of the grades is concerned. ~. Horizontal and vertical variograms of the gaussian transformed variable. Figure 1. ' ..an exponential with a sill of 0.. . 138 A.. Be .. all the information that we have comes from the drillholes. The 3~ model is the sum of: ..~h~ ____~h~____~.25 . a horizontal range of 20m.. 1i! .  .• e . Figure 2 shows the scatter diagram of the OK estimates against the ones obtained using ordinary kriging. . a hori zontal range of 120m and a vertical one of 600m. However the recovered metal corresponding to a cutoff grade of zero is just the average grade of the panel. ' . ~ .~~>h~~. So we can cross check by comparing the recoverable metal at a zero cutoff grade with estimated panel grade obtained by ordinary kriging. =~~ ~~~~~~~~~~ .~. No other information is available to allow us to test the estimates of the recoverable reserves. plus . This latter estimate is not necessarily better than the preceding one and so cannot be taken as a reference in the same way as production figures can. and a vertical one of 40m.. But because of the universality condition used in ordinary kriging it requires only local stationarity and so is better suited to nonhomogeneous deposits.. .. The strong attraction . ZAUPA REMACRE 1... a~ ..33. This is why it is interesting to compare the results obtained using it with those given by stationary nonlinear methods (in this case disjunctive kriging).67.a second exponential with a sill of 0.~.
.RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 139 . . I '!IiliU518192lilil 13 5 '2 C 'lZliIli2aOZll8 It • S 3 3 ""a3l3 2382!i2118 . '] '2 '2 1 J. eIl52 1Ztnl22'1 ell" 5 '2 .OKI=___________j . 2 Figure 2.. . $ 81381291 2 25 . . • 1.t " " ' 1113322 II I 1 5 1 '2 .. 1 ') 7 1111 1 ~ '9'" '2 1 3 "'" 71!1012 22'2. ill • • .:n~It'3Jl'HIII. S1I11222ltJIIUZ7\Il ' . the regression OK/OK compared to the 45° line. j j I .. Grade estimates of all panels: scatter diagram of DK against OK..llIZI I Z I 12!1$]eS l!l21!1 1~1 .'1 "7111 '2 . '2'" 1 I 5 I 2 • \1~2222!12'3 ' 2!il~12 I I 11 2311 72 121Z"l 12: • '2 I 2 '2 '2 2 12192'2.: '2 I I 5 '2 ) 2 . 7"573IZ e2~ l J ! I ].2.13212115 • <M '2 I I 171 2 1 111 ' 111 1 I '" e .. . 1l2. 'I I I I a . In the inset map.lloltS i '*""' 11 112 1" '2 5"SaOL.
5 .4 774 0.2 . (2) A suitable criterion for judging whether the data are dense enough is the kriging weight assigned to the mean in simple kriging. (See Guibal and Remacre (1984). 1970) that ordinary kriging can be obtained from simple kriging by replacing the known mean in the simple kriging estimator by its local kriged estimator.3 . and Remacre (1984)). Table shows that these weights were in fact high. This effect is more marked in cases where the kriging weight assigned to the mean is higher.3 458 0. From this we can see that: (1) nonlinear methods of estimating recoverable reserves are suitable provided that the available data are sufficiently dense compared to the variogram structure. In other words the kriging weight assigned to the mean can be used as a criterion for judging whether it is advisable to use stationary nonlinear techniques for the panel in question. The attraction toward the mean is much more marked for those panels with a large value of Am.2 108 0. Am ('!o) Nb of panels < 0. So it is interesting to study how the regression of the DK estimator on the ordinary kriging one varies as a function of Am (Figures 3 and 4). .6 620 0.4 . It has been shown (Matheron.0. These comparisons have been made using disjunctive kriging but the same is also true for the other stationary nonlinear methods.0.0.140 A.5 765 0.6 ~ 532 Table 1.0. Number of panels as a function of the weight of the mean. that is. when the data are relatively sparse compared to the variogram structure. This eliminates the attraction toward the mean. ZAUPA REMACRE toward the mean is obvious from the cloud of points and from the regression shown in the inset map.
t ._.j.. Figure 4. .3 15 15 .RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 141 .. .__.. 1 2 I .4 '4 14'. . • .. .• .... .. . I . ._. " •• .l 1 l 2' 2 1 ":i! '4 l <l: 1 I 2 I J I._ . . 2 . S . e '4 ) lot 'Hi ... . . Scatter diagram (OK vs OK) and regression OK/OK for the panels (17% of total) where ~m ~ 0. S 7\' . L ] ]12' 1 5 Z 21' ill. .. " OK o . . l L 1 !Ii !II 1 1 2 .. 1 :2 1 It 2 'l Z ~ 81 L s e .._.5. _ . 2 1 2 l11 8 5 t I "17 tlZ''3 1.
iI __ ot< I .C.~~~ .. .. • I. 1:5 L 1 I I 01 !5191Loi jI Z Z ~'L 5 LilLI \9\'" 6 1& I 2 11' .12 l .' Figure 3.5.I L3 l C 2 lIZt _ 2I5tIolL'!..Z l " 511!1 LSI 3 7 'l I II 92.2: 3.'\ 2'\ i. 222L~ J L 11.142 A. DK ~. .1:. I ''1''''2 101 2~ i!I !Ii 81 111 21. I I " ttl2: J • 15: 1t I l :z 2: 22'S 7 5 • '4 . 2 '2 J Llil S '" e 1 \ " L i . 2' 01!5221511 7 1 1 ..3 5 I 2 t "?'ZI!iII ' . Scatter diagram (DK vs OK) and regression DK/OK for panels (35% of total) where Am ~ 0. ZAUPA REMACRE l... \ 717 !i 121'2:310 .
even locally. and to deduce the recovery functions from this. and so there is no single mean which could be filtered out using a universality condition. Their correlation coefficient is p = R/r. Consequently a different approach is required when estimating recoverable reserves. We want the method chosen to be locally unbiased no matter what the local mean is. However this is no longer the case when estimating recoverable reserves where we need a linear estimate of the Hermite polynomials associated with the gaussian equivalents for the blocks. ~R be the gaussian anamorphosis function for the panels. Let YV and Y be the gaussian equivalents associated with the grade Z(V) of Y the panel. In particular.RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 143 THE APPROACH PROPOSED: UNIFORM CONDITIONING Having now established a criterion for deciding whether stationary nonlinear techniques would be suitable for estimating the recoverable reserves in a given panel we now have to decide which method to use in the remalnlng cases. be the gaussian anamorphosis function for the blocks. Let ~ be the gaussian anamorphosis function for the samples. ~ 1]. We also use the discretized gaussian model proposed by Matheron (1976). When using ordinary linear kriging the universality condition guarantees this. which gets around this ~ifficulty. In this case we assume that the change of support model is applicable up to supports as large as panels. So if the data are considered as having a point support. This involves linear kriging of the Hermite polynomials corresponding to the gaussian equivalents of the point support variable. universality conditions can be used in DK to estimate the average panel grade as it is the average of the point grades. In order to solve more difficult problems one often has to make more restrictive hypotheses. Clearly there is no reason for the local mean for the point support variable to be the same as that for the blocks. and with the grade Z(v) of a random block. The blocks v are considered as being randomly located inside their panel V. . But this only works because the data (the sample grades) and the grade to be estimated have the same mean. We shall now present a method called "uniform conditioning". The idea is to choose a grade estimator which only requires local stationarity. universality conditions can be used to achieve the desired results provided that the variable to be estimated has a point support itself or is a regularization of one.
(The mathematical formulae are given ln the Appendix.Calculate the variance of Z{v) from the variogram of Z{x) . STEP 2 Calculate the gaussian anamorphosis function of the experimental data (and the corresponding Hermite polynomial coefficients ~n ). these recovery estimates were . . This method was applied to the porphyry copper deposit described earlier. The conditioning grades of the panels were obtained by disjunctive kriging on a point support with universality conditions. ZAUPA REM ACRE Since Z{V) (and hence Y ) is considered as being known.Calculate the coefficients of the block anamorphosis: n ~nr STEP 4 Repeat the same procedure to obtain R for the panels.in this case DR. We now present a review of the steps involved in estimating the recoverable reserves using Uniform Conditioning.1 (Z{V)) STEP 6 Calculate the gaussian equivalents y corresponding to the cutoff grades z for the bloc~s. STEP 1 Estimate the grade Z{V) of the panel using a method that only requires local stationarity.) It is al~o easy to verify that the estimated metal recovery corresponding to a zero cutoff grade is equal to the injected grade of the panel.144 A. Y has a normal distribution wi~h a mean of pY V and a variance gf s2 = 1 . c STEP 7 £valuate the corresponding recoverable ore tonnage and metal tonnage. So the conditional expectations of the tonnage T{z ) and the metal quantity Q{z ) can easily be deduced from this inCterms of the gaussian equlvalent y of the cutoff grade z . STEP 3 Carry out the change of support for the blocks: .Determine the coefficient r from the formula: Var{Z{v)) = n [(~nr )2 1 . As the reality was unknown.compared with those obtained using a method requiring stationarity .p2. STEP 5 Calculate the gaussian equivalents YV of the grades of the conditioning panels: YV = 41.
.58 8. 6 and 7. lie 9. Average zone.511 B. zc II. we can be sure that the metal quantity obtained by this new method will be equal to the injected panel grade.1111 '__________.  II.75 \ \ \ \ '" . and the bottom 10 benches respectively. ..J zc 11.25 11. B" Figure 5..RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 145 The comparisons were made in three zones (poor..511 '" '" '" '" '" '" . Moreover for other cutoff grades we can see that the values obtained are not so strongly attracted toward the mean as are those for DK.511 . ell L__________~~________====~===::::.. . ge \ \ \ \ \ 0. .. The results are presented in Figures 5. \ 11.25 8. "" 11.75 \ \ \ \ \ \ 0. lie ~ ~ \ \ \ \ 11. average and rich). Q I...~.__________. the following 10 benches... '" " '" '" 11.. .75 1. Q I. "" " ==:::::::::::::::.1111 11.. . Poor zone. So it does give better results from this point of view.25 11. which correspond to the first 10 benches. For a zero cutoff grade..75 I......~~~~~~ .L__________L____________.25 ..lIe Figure 6.L.
L_ _ _ _ _L. ZAUPA REMACRE p g I.. 0.. although more complex.. even though the sample data in their areas have quite different distributions.50 r_ . . . UPPER: proportion of blocks above the cutoff: ..75 .00 '_ _ _ _ _'_ _ _ _ _... However this improvement would probably be too ambitious in cases like this one where the data are sparse compared to the variogram structure. ........continuous line: uniform conditioning by the panel grade LOWER: quantity of metal above the cutoff. .00 0.. to use the panel grade and the neighbour ing data as the conditioning variables (instead of just the panel grade as at present).. 0.... .. . ... .75 1........dash: disjunctive kriging ._ _ _ _ _.25 0...... 00 " . . CONCLUSION Conditioning the distribution of block grades by the panel grade makes it possible to estimate local recoverable reserves without having them attracted toward the overall mean value.146 A.l zc 0. . It would theoretically be possible. ..... Rich zone.. .... .50 0... 0.. One disadvantage of this approach is that two panels with the same grade will forcibly have the same estimated recoverable reserves..00 Figure 7.....25 0. So this method is better suited to nonhomogeneous deposits..
(1984): L'estimation du recuperable local. (1985): The bigaussian approach: a simple method for recovery estimation. 1979. (1979): The use of conditional lognormal probability distribution for the estimation of openpit ore reserves in a stratabound Uranium deposit . Ie conditionnement uniforme. "Geostat 75". pp.RECOVERY ESTIMATION OF NONHOMEGENEOUS OREBODIES 147 REFERENCES DAVID M. MARECHAL A. Dr. (1984): Local estimation of recoverable reserves: comparing various methods with the reality of a porphyry copper deposit. and TOUFFAIT Y. (1984): Recovery estimation: a review of models and methods. Fascicule 5. Co. Fontainebleau... Z. Rome. (1979): Structural analysis of CC. 435448. JOURNEL A. GUIBAL D. Thesis. Centre de Geostatistique. 385. Co. (1970): La theorie des variables regionalisees et ses applications.Ing. Mathematical Geology. Proc. 237251. pp. REMACRE A. No 6. GUIBAL D. Centre de Geostatistique. REMACRE A. (1976): Forecasting block grade distributions: the transfer functions. DIXON W. Reidel Pub. Vol. Les Cahiers de Morphologie Mathematique.A case study. NATO ASI.M. Fontainebleau. MATHERON G. . 17. . p. NATO ASITAHOE. and MARCOTTE D. MATHERON G. Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris. Reidel Pub. PARKER H. 133148.. NATO ASITAHOE.. 16th APCOM. D. pp.
148 A.c} • J" °rlYv} qlYvlY.G( c ) s with G cumulative density function of the standard normal N(O.1).} d Yv Yc where g(YvIY v ) is the density function of Yv given Yv . Quantity of metal: QI. ZAUPA REMACRE APPENDIX Ore tonnage: T(z ) c P [Z(v) ~ Zc I Z(V)] P[Y v ~ y c I YV] y .r YV = 1 . .
at an early stage. the grades and tonnages have been modified. Geostatistical Case Studies. and the geological model was not well established (making the definition of the tonnage extremely difficult). 149168.) . INTRODUCTION The geostatistical study of this Australian gold deposit has closely followed the evolution of the drilling . 156 Pacific Highway. St. The generalized permanency of the distribution model was used for the change of support. NOTE: For proprietary reasons. © 1<)87 by D. where only 45 holes were available. In the first phase of the study. After completion of the drilling campaign (112 drill holes). the local recoverable reserves could be calculated using 'uniform conditioning' . RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT Daniel GUIBAL SIROMINES Level 5. only the global recoverable reserves could be evaluated. 149 G. a much better understanding of the geology of the deposit and a better representativity of the sampling allowed for a local estimation of the recoverable reserves. Leonards NSW 2000 Australie ABSTRACT This paper describes the application of nonlinear geostatistical techniques to the estimation of the recoverable reserves in an Australian gold project. Armstrong (eds. Reidel !>lIblis!r i/lg OIllP"" ). When more data became available. 1. Matheron and M.· . a simple evaluation of the global recoverable reserves was performed. Emphasis is put on the methodology to be followed for this type of study. and the geology of the deposit is not described in detail.
Figure 1. which extends well down the anticline limbs is often found along the faults. GUIBAL This step by step approach is an essential part of geostatistics.e. A typical stylized EW section is represented in Figure 1. Gold is also associated with disseminated sulphides in the sediments. great care must be taken to ensure the adequacy of the relation between the goal of a study (local or global reserves) and the amount of data available (these of course include both quantitative data. assay values and qualitative data. Quartz reefs have developed progressively during the folding and faulting stages. with faults essentially parallel to the axial plane. Most drill holes are inclined towards the axis of the anticline. the knowledge of the geology). The mineralization. The goal (hence the geostatistical technique to be used) has to be governed by the data available. with limbs dipping rather steeply. The upper part of the deposit has been oxidized. in association with the quartz reefs. 2. At any stage. i. Extensive faulting has taken place during the latter stages of folding.150 D. .e. i. Stylized EW cross section. THE GEOLOGY OF THE DEPOSIT The essential feature of the deposit is a large anticlinal structure trending NW.
it is described in Appendix A. It was expected in particular that the recoverable grades would be "reasonably" estimated. This is clearly a geological problem. As a consequence of these fundamental uncertainties there was no point in trying to estimate the local reserves. As the oxidized and primary mineralizations are significantly different.there is no geostatis tical (or statistical) way of solving this problem. the limits of the mineralization were not precisely defined. Naturally. The samples were 1. it is likely that the precision of any evaluation of the tonnage.RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 151 3. As the deposit will be mined by openpit.5 m long. As such. the geology was not very well understood at this early stage. The different steps of the study are as follows 3.5 m long samples have been composited. We actually worked with 2 possible values for v : v1 = 5 x 3 x 7. in particular. at this stage. . a separate analysis has been performed on the two zones. We set ourselves a limited goal of evaluating the global recoverable reserves within a mineralized envelope to be defined by the geologist. and. Matheron.1. by defining 1. the main objective of the study of the global recoverable reserves is to evaluate the effect of the change of support on the reserves. would be very low (much lower than the corresponding precision of the estimate of the grade!). GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES AT AN EARLY STAGE OF THE EXPLORATION Initially. from a metallurgical viewpoint.5 m v2 = 10 x 10 x 10 m The method used for the calculations is the so called "generalized permanency of the distribution" method : due to G. we had assay results from 45 drill holes at an approximately regular grid of 25 x 50 m.5 m high benches. This problem of definition of the limits of the mineralization is obviously crucial for any meaningful evaluation of the tonnage (and to a lesser extent for the grade) . a block size v corresponding to the likely selection units had to be defined. Statistics on the data The initial 1.
GUIBAL The global statistics are given in Table 1: TABLE Global statistics on 1.0 20. . Variograms on the composites Initially.2. 3.to.9 The most important conclusion from these statistics is that the variability of the grades of the composites as measured by the ratio o/m is high.D .04 1 .9 Primary.0 o f0.0 Figure 2. A short range structure is apparent (with a range less than 20m) and a high nugget effect. especially in the non oxidized zone. zone 2100 1. variograms have been calculated along the drill holes (grouping the drill holes having similar orientations) on the raw grades. Variogram of gold data (primary zone). ofI.152 D. of course. This is. related to the skewness of the distribution of the grades.3 2. and the existence of some very high values (higher than 50 gft). 0 5.5 m samples. Number of Mean grade Composites (g/t) o/m Oxidized zone 800 1. An example of these variograms (primary zone) is given in Figure 2. No structure could be found in the horizontal variograms. because of this variability we can expect some problems in determining the variogram. From a statistical point of view.
. ._ . To eliminate the influence of the high values.. 40 m and 80 m).50 o 20. and a few high grades might unduly affect the experimental variograms. . A global model was then fitted to the gaussian experimental average variograms. and variance 1. 00 _ • __ .. .RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 153 As previously noted. the variability of the grades is very high. It is quite striking to see how much more clearly the structures can be observed on the gaussian variograms. the variogram for the initial composites can be deduced from the model fitted to the gaussian variogram .' YX+h of g. Then the variograms were recalculated on these transformed values. e . __ . (The horizontal variograms remained completely erratic).. _ . .. e ____ .. a gaussian anamorphosis was performed on the composites . The example corresponding to Figure 2 is shown in Figure 3.. we need a model corresponding to the raw initial composites.. No strong anisotropy could be detected.. c:I 0..... __ .". The transformation is described in appendix B.o Figure 3.. In agreement with the model presented in appendix B. all the grades (in both the oxide and primary zones) have been transformed into gaussian distributed values with mean O. (the model used implies the hypothesis that the pairs Ylf.) . _.0 '+a . Now. masking the underlying correlations. As a result..7'5 0.0 30.aussian transformed values are bigaussian. It is shown for the primary zone on Figure 3 (three sphericals with ranges of 5 m. for any d1stance h. for the change of support technique. Variogram of transformed gold data (primary zone)...
gives a higher grade. so the recovered grade will be lower.Determining ~(v. the coefficient of change of support r is calculated. the comparison between the two volumes v 1 and v 2 shows that the smaller volume.Calculating the expected variance of dispersion of grades corresponding to the blocks v.D2 (Olv) Hence D2 (vIG) = variance of the composites . The only way to improve the recoverable grade would be to increase the selectivity. this hypothesis is of course not true. and D2(vIG). The results are shown in tables 2 and 3 for the primary zone. which generally means higher costs. we have: D2 (v IG) = D2(OIG) . . As the deposit will be mined by openpit. (The change of support techniques work under the hypothesis of a free selection.Knowing the anamorphosis function of the composites.v) . the mean value of the variogram wi thing the volume v. The recoverable tonnage is expressed as a percentage of the total tonnage of the mineralized envelope. The change of support and the estimation of the global recoverable reserves According to the method described in appendix A. without any constraints).154 D. because of the essential influence of the mlnlng constraints. the following calculations are made. for each selection unit v .3. According to Krige's relationship. It is important to keep in mind that. these estimated grades represent optima. allowing a better selectivity. As a matter of fact. It is quite interesting to compare these results to the recoverable reserves calculated on the original 1.The global recoverable reserves are then readily calculated. . ~(v. GUIBAL 3. within the deposit . .v). in any case.5 m composites (Table 4) The essential consequence of the change of support appears quite clearly : a marked decrease in the mean grade. which are not likely to be reached.
1 t4 30% 3.6 TABLE 4. Cutoff Recoverable Mean grade grade tonnage gft) (gft) t1 49% 2.9% 3. Recoverable reserves for a 5 x 3 x 7.3 t3 29% 3.3% 4.2 t5 21% 3.6 t4 27% 3.2 t5 15.5 m· support (primary zone).5 m composites (pr imary zone). Recoverable reserves for a 10 x 10 x 10m support (primary zone).9 t4 20. Recoverable reserves calculated on 1.RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 155 TABLE 2. Cutoff Recoverable Mean grade grade tonnage (gft) (gft) t1 57% 2.2% 4.6% 7.4 t6 11 .4% 6.8 .8 t5 19% 4.5 t2 32% 3.8 t3 33% 3.6 t6 14% 5. cutoff Recoverable Mean grade grade tonnage gft) (gft) t1 37.6 t3 22.3% 5.7 TABLE 3.2 t2 24.1 t2 36% 2.9 t6 15% 4.
this assumption is acceptable. As we have seen before. As a consequence. A reasonable level of homogeneity of the mineralization within the deposit is expected. at this stage. We deduced from their histogram a first estimate of the recoverable reserves at this level of selection. which will be mined by open cut. the geology of the deposit is better understood. as was mentioned before. at least locally. this amounts to assuming that the blocks can be freely selected within the panel. No geometrical constraints are taken into account. fully described in [1] and summarized in appendix C. Precision of the estimation .Comparison with 10m composites Due to the many hypotheses made in the model. on the same grid 25 x 50 m. (The drillhole grid is too wide). The grade of each individual block cannot be estimated. the distribution of grades of selectivity units of 3 m x 8 m x 5 m has to be estimated. no calculation is possible. The technique used is the Uniform Conditioning Method.The orebody must be. homogeneous. The main hypotheses implied by this method (like other nonlinear methods) are the following : . 4. .156 D. as has already been mentioned. assay results from 112 drill holes were available. GUIBAL 3. except for very high cutoffs (less than 10 % recoverable tonnage). applying the change of support technique. In this gold deposit. From a mining viewpoint. Errors in the definition of the envelope can be extremely large). LOCAL RECOVERABLES RESERVES AT THE FEASIBILITY STAGE At the feasibility stage. this is not realistic for this deposit. so the estimated values represent maximal (ideal) values. This allows us to evaluate the local Recoverable Reserves for each panel of 25 m x 50 m x 5 m (corresponding to the grid size and the bench height). We used a cross validation technique: building composites corresponding to 10 m high benches.4. it is difficult to calculate a sensible value for the precision of the estimation of the grade. . (As far as the tonnage is concerned.The quantities to be estimated (which are the recoverable tonnages and grades by panel) are related to the distribution of block grades within the panel. where the model of change of support is no longer valid. but much more complete. we calculated a second estimate from 5 m composites. Then. The discrepancies between the two results were always lower than 10 % for the recoverable tonnages and grades.
53 2 Primary Western limb 495 1. most of the available samples are 1. This is of course wrong: in practice the grade of a block is only estimated at the moment of the decision (through the blasthole data).18 2 Oxides Western limb 255 0. The different steps of the study are the following 4. TABLE 5. Number of Mean grade composites (g/t) aim Oxides Eastern limb 340 1.1. As a consequence of this variability. But at the stage of the feasibility study. composites corresponding to this height have been created.RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 157 . and is difficult to take into account. Global statistics on 5m bench composites.5 m long.2. 34 1. the final blasthole pattern (hence the grade control procedure) 1S not precisely known. Variography As expected.e. it is apparent that we will need to calculate the variogram on the transformed data. 4. the experimental variograms of the raw grades are . The global statistics are given in table 5. In agreement with the geology.The last hypothesis is that the true grades of the blocks will be known when mining (i. when the selection takes place). four essentially different zones have been studied.2 Primary Eastern limb 775 1. Again. Statistics on the data As in the previous study. which again reflects the skewness of the histograms. corresponding on one hand to the distinction oxides/primary and to the separation eastern/western limb on the other hand. As the future mining benches will be 5 m high.92 2.9 The variability of the composites as shown by the ratios aim is high. the fact that we ignore this "information effect" means that the actual recovered reserves will probably be lower than the estimated recoverable ones.
. . Unfortunately from a mining point of view. aoo. Figure 4. down dip. this information is .. .... 4. it is impossible (and meaningless) to estimate the grade of each individual small block in the deposit. . . The results of this careful study of the variograms are in agreement with the geological interpretation. Definiting the parameters for the local recoverable reserves The size of the selective mining unit defined by the company is 3 x 8 x 5 m. zoo.. The variograms of the gaussian values were then calculated in the four different zones under study.O ' . As an example the variograms of the eastern limb in the primary ore are given in Figure 4 together with the fitted model. along the drillholes and east/west. The transformation into gaussian distributed values was done without major problem. as the grid is 25 x 50 m.75 0 . " 0..J ~. For each zone. Variogram of transformed gold data (primary eastern limb). the following directions were taken into account along strike. GUIBAL highly irregular. Because this unit is very small compared to the sampling grid.50 0.. panels of 25 x 50 x 5 m can be estimated by kriging with an acceptable level of accuracy. On the other hand.. I I . with a high continuity down dip (up to 4060 m) and a lower continuity perpendicular to the drill holes (2030 m)..25 o tOO..158 D.3.
For the neighbourhoOd. a 3 x 3 x 7 parallelepiped of panels is chosen.8 and 0. namely 52 = 1: Aa A~ Pa~ which is the dispersion variance of Y*K' and . The estimation method used.4.85. At the same time. The following quantities are estimated within each panel : . and the real level of selectivity will be much higher (blocks). In each of the 4 zones only data belonging to the given zone were taken into account.the proportion of blocks with a grade higher than the cutoff grade : P c . We calculated : Y*K = 1: A. but within each panel. and 30 different weighting factors were used. the neighbourhood. we evaluated the recoverable reserves corresponding to the small blocks. We worked at the level of a panel. It varies between 0. because of the lack of homogeneity of the deposit in some zones.RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 159 not very useful : a panel is too big a unit. 4. Theoretically. the coefficient r of change of support is calculated for the 4 zones. because it does not make sense to try to estimate small blocks directly. In order to condition the estimation.the corresponding metal content : Qc . the other quantities required by the Uniform Conditioning method were calculated . In this study. To take into account the change of support.the mean grade of the recovered reserves : M c = Qc IP c Actually. are the gaussian ~ata in. four cutoff grades have been considered in both the primary and the oxide ore. we preferred to impose the condition [A = 1. This did not generate many numerical or statistical problems. is Uniform Conditioning. Kriging of the gaussian transformed values A block model of 12 x 19 x 40 panels is built. Estimating the local recoverable reserves involves finding a compromise between these two problems. these panels were kriged. the practical steps of the calculation are described in the following paragraphs.1 Y.1 where y* is the kriged estimate of the panel and y. as indicated previously. a simple kriging (without a universality condition) should be performed.
4. Evaluation of the recoverable reserves of each panel The value of H = P nH (y* (S) was calculated for six Hermite polynomials. From this density. which is enough to ensure a good coXvergence of our estimated recovery in most cases.5. with the limitations due to the imprecise definition of the geology (doubts over some boundaries for example). The calculation of P k n was made up to n = 6. The results by panel For most of the panels the results are satisfactory. These instabilities might be also related to the condition L.A. Aftgr t~fs.1). Nevertheless since a significant number of panels (15 to 20 %) do not contain many data. their kriged value was not precise. a number of panels. Most of these panels'correspond to low grade zones. However. 4. GUIBAL 1: A p n n Pkv = 1/N I(a5 avo ) 1 where P kv n represents the average to the power n of the correlatlon between Y*k/S and the points within the panel. The quality of the kriging process was found to be good. especially in the primary areas where more data are available. the recoverable reserves are: P c r fr*(y) dy r Yc Qc = ¢lr(y) dy Yc Mc Qc/Pc where y = ¢I 1(z ) is the gaussian equivalent of the cutoff grade ZC (bQt f6r small blocks) and ¢lr(y) is the gaussian anamorph8sis function related to blocks. = 1 1 1 .160 D. for which the kriging process was not very good showed nume~ical problems (negative density or grades).6. n th~ "density" corresponding to the distribution of the small blocks was given by fr*(y) = g(y) 1: Hn*Hn(y) rnn! where g(y) is the standard normal density N(O.
and it would probably be interesting to estimate these panels twice. TABLE 6. are not very accurate. The quality of the estimates of individual panels could possibly be improved by modifying the geological criteria used.1 Cutoff Percentage Mean grade PRIMARY ORE (g/t) recovered (gft) Number of panels t1 50.7 t4 22. The final result would then be a weighted average of these two estimates. For panels at the border between the ore zones actually. It must be emphasised that the results. using data from each zone in contact with it.3 evaluated: 2006 t2 36.7 3.8 Average kriged grade of the panels: 1.RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECf 161 used in kriging.1 t4 24.2 2.7.9 2. As a matter of fact. we used only part of the data for esttmating each panel (that belonging to the same geological unit). Global recoverable reserves .2 g/t t3 29.8 3. cutoff Percentage Mean grade (gft) recovered (gft) OXIDIZED ORE Number of panels t1 45. 4. The global results By grouping the estimates for all the panels we get the global results shown in table 6.4 Averaged kriged grade of the panels: 1. and it is strongly recommended to group at least 4 or 6 of the panels to get more reliable local estimates of the recoverable reserves.04g/t t3 28.8 2.6 It is difficul:t to evaluate the preC1S10n of these figures which depend heavily on the many geological and statistical assumptions . we have a mixture of ore types.9 3.0 evaluated: 843 t2 35.1 2.4 2. for an individual panel.
p. and implicitly assumes that mining will be done at a very high level of selectivity. Proceedings of 2nd NATO ASI Sept. a low tonnage with a high grade is defined. a strict experimental control must be kept over all the steps of the method. Remacre Local Estimation of the Recoverable Reserves. On the other hand. This implies a drop in grade. by comparison to the geological estimation. the actual selectivity of the mining method. There is a big difference in both tonnages and grades. This ensures an increase in tonnage. In its second part. D. This corresponds more to an underground mining method than to an open pit.Conversely. like Uniform Conditioning. GUIBAL made during the study. Reidel. . BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] D.The geological estimation is based on the 1. . Comparing various methods with the reality on a porphyry copper deposit. well suited to the difficult problem of assessing local recoverable reserves. These results have been compared with the reserves calculated by the geologists (using the sectional method). Guibal and A. 83. geostatistics takes into account (although ideally).162 D. 435448. Clearly. CONCLUSION This study is a step by step example of the geostatistical approach to the ore reserves estimation problem.5 m samples. which is easy to explain. the hypothesis of local homogeneity means that the mineralization is assumed not to have sharp boundaries. are now fully operational methods. . As a consequence. it shows that nonlinear techniques. The primary ore is definitely better estimated than the oxide. This is not a mathematical exercise. but the search for concrete answers to a concrete problem.
(P~ovided the bivariate distribution y(x). y(x+h) is bivariate normal). IX the generalised permanency model. I [1 . Then. ~(y) I: . and the covariance defined on the raw values m C (h) = I: Ciy (h) z i=O . H. The distribUtion F (z) of the grades of these units is. especially if they are not regularly spaced. (y) i=O i! 1 The polynomials are known. as is explained in Appendix B. we assume . the variance of the grades D2(OIG) = 0 2 is g~ven by : n 'P? 0 2 I: 1 i=1 i! There is also a relation between the covariance (and the variogram) defined on the gaussian values. and the coefficients 'P. of course. and C (h) is the covariaHce calculated on the gaussian values. This must be representative of the whole area where the samples have been taken from. It can be shown that the mean grade (without cutoff) of the samples grades is equal to 'P . a gaussian anamorphosis is performed Z = ~(Y). where C (h) is the covariance of the raw values. unknown. On the other hand. we get an estimate of their histogram: F(z). The function 0 is expressed mathematically by its expansion as a series of n Hermite polynomial Hi(y). Hence. I 1.(11 y (h)) ) 1. It may be sometimes necessary to weight the samples. it is easy to calculate Y. are determined experimentally by fitting the curve ~(y) to the1distribution of the grades z. knowing the variogram of the Y values.2:. m 'P. we get : 'Pf 1 i .RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 163 APPENDIX A ESTIMATION OF THE GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES: 'GENERALIZED PERMANENCY OF THE DISTRIBUTION' MODEL From the empirical distribution of the samples. Then we choose the size of the selection unit v. For the variogram.
the recoverable reserves for a given cutoff grade Zc follow from the relations : Recoverable tonnage : Tv(zc)= To(1 . and D2(Olv) = ~ (vv).164 D.GUIBAL that Fv(z) can be expanded In Hermite polynomials n ip. where the ip. Fv(z) having been estimated.Fv(zc» Quantity of metal recovered : Mean grade mv (z c ) . are the previously calculated coefficients. yare the values from a gaussian distribution and r is an unknown coefficient. which is the mean value of the variogram ~z within the voluJe v. which is known.r i 1 l zv Fv [G(y») 1: Hi(y) . I i=1 l. It is calculated from the variance of the grades for the units v D2(vIG) But D2(vIG) can be computed experimentally using the well known Krige's relationship D2(vIG) = D2(OIG) .D2(Olv) D2(OIG) 0 2 is the variance of the composites.
it is always possible (at least experimentally) to tra~sform them into another variable Y ... On the vertical axis we get the value of F(z) = P(Z < z). I .. . ~. It is easy to perform the transformation experimentally.. when the distribution F of the experimental data is lognormal. I . ..'. " . as shown in the following figure : prcob(Z<z) prClb(Y<y) . we get the value of Prob (Y < y) = G(y) (probability that Y less than y).RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMATION AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 165 APPENDIX B GAUSSIAN ANAMORPHOSIS Let Z be the raw variable (the grade...a\ hi. . . On the vertical axis.. with a standard normal (gaussian) distribution N(O. I ~ xpi'ri".. . The lognormal transformation is a particular case of anamor phosis.." . we associate with each_yalue z one value y and we define the anamorphosis function z : F [G(y)]. Whatever statis~ical distribution Z may have. I . The following two cumulative histograms are represented : . We have cr : Z = ~(Y ).en\..011 ..The experimental cumulative histogram of the real data z. for instance).The cumulative histogram of the gaussian variable Y....:. I .. " . I I . The function is called the anamorphosis function and tR"e trangformation itself from Zcr to Ycr is called anamorphosis... By equating F(z) to G(y).. .~~ ." '" I ..~n:s.~. " I ." .. with mean 0 and variance 1. __ ' I o. .1).
it is then possible to calculate the density f(y) of the distribution of the grades Y when v varies within V. Let Y ~enote the gaussian values corresponding to Z ..e. it can be shown that the best estimator of Yvi is the kriging estimator [ Aa Y (simple kriging. knowing only the grades of some composites Z at a grid corresponding to the size of the panel. without tne condition [A ~ 1. a Moreover. i. The anamorphocgis is ell : Z = ell (Y ) a c a Ca' If we assume that the distribution of the Y is jointly multigaussian..~ IAn i t + + + 1.i\'"hin ~he pone I V 5elechon l::.Yk(V»)P(dV) f(y) = 0k(v) 0k(v) .. This density is given by v .166 D. the gaussian transform of the grade of a given block v. the problem is to estimate the distribution of the grades of blocks v within a panel V. If we consider Y. THE PROBLEM As indicated in the figure. GUIBAL APPENDIX C THE UNIFORM CONDITIONING TECHNIQUE + ponel V hisr09l'"om of Ul'1i\. wi~fiin V. as we assafue that the ore body is homogeneous)."s v . a general method for solving tffe problem is "multigaussian kriging".
knowing Yk can be calculated easily : Vl where Pvk is the correlation between Yk and Yv . The major dra~back of the method is that it requires a separate kriging for each block within v. we will lose somewhat in precision. The conditional distribution of Y .RECOVERABLE RESERVES ESTIMA nON AT AN AUSTRALIAN GOLD PROJECT 167 where 0 (v) is the square root of the kriging variance of Y and g the ~ensity of the standard normal N(O. which can prove expensive (although some simpli fications are possible). p* (Recovered tonnage) and Q* (Recovered quantity of metal) are estimated without problem. . 2. 1 and 52 = Laf3AaAf3Pa13 = variance of the combination L AaYa. 1/N L Hn(YVi) is estimated by Hn * = and from f*. but gain in speed.1). Doing this. Let us consider the following linear combination LAY ex (( Yk = 5 where A are solution of the kriging system a LexAexPex~ = 1/N Li pexv . Using the development of f into Hermite polynomials. THE UNIFORM CONDITIONING METHOD The basic idea of the uniform conditioning method is to replace the information represented by the Y by one unique value [ A Y associated with the panel (krigin~ of the mean grade of fhea panel).
we performed a kriging with the condition LA = 1 to ensure a better local conditioning. . Hence we get L AaYa and S. . In our study. The last step 1S then to calculate the density and the recoverable reserves. a One unavoidable consequence of this choice was some numerical problems for the panels with low grade and few data values. GUIBAL The steps in the calculation are : . we limited our development to 6 polynomials which proved to be sufficient for insuring a good convergence. V1 raised to power n. In this study. P~v= 1/N I( A: Pcrvi ) n In fact. (See the paper).168 D. these quantities are calculated for points (the blocks will be used only at the last step).Calculation of H*n = PKvHn(Y k )' .Calculation of the correlation between Y . n .Kriging the Ya .By dividing the H* by rn we have the value corres ponding to the blocks 3 x anx 5 m.
This is described in detail in Sans and Martin (1984). Canada. in terms of known ore. Reidel F/lb/islr illg Company. Matheron and M. The main reason for this is the complexity of the geology which has made it very difficult to understand and interpret the deposit. So geostatistical techniques were progressively introduced into the study of the recoverable reserves. 1. Armstrong (eds.).COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES H. SANS. 169 G.R. There were too few development drillholes to allow us to use the traditional reserve estimation methods. France ABSTRACT The objective of the study was to compare the estimates of the recoverable reserves made using the data from the development drillholes on a 15m x 15m grid with the actual production figures from a uranium deposit in Saskatchewan. Geostatistical Case Studies. The grades of blastholes on a 3m x 3m grid and a conditional simulation which provided a numerical model of the variability of grades. The results would not have been accurate enough for the needs of the feasibility study. This additional information made it possible to experimentally check the commonly used geostatistical formulae. INTRODUCTION One of the most important questions during the preparation of the project on this uranium deposit has been that of accurately estimating the recoverable reserves. BLAISE Compagnie Generale des Matieres Nucleaires. were also used. . This led firstly to the use of technical reserve parametrage for global and local estimates. from the mining point of view. © 1987 by D . 169185. J.
170 H. Despite the extreme complexity on a small scale. many hypotheses have to be made either explicitly or implicitly (e. Saskatchewan. As far as is possible these should be tested. DESCRIPTION OF THE DEPOSIT AND THE EXPLORATION PROGRAM The deposit considered in this paper is a uranium deposit situated at Cluff Lake. 2. The principal control of the mineralization is a tectonic zone with rotated fault blocks. the recoverability of the ore. the choice of the mining method. (3) to check the properties of the geostatistical models used for the technical parameterization and the conditional simulation. . by open pit methods. SANS AND J. the envelope containing the mineJalization is relatively uniform. The ore body is currently being mined by the Cluff Mining Company. 1. The idea was to compare the theoretical results with the experimental ones so as to test these hypotheses. concerning the continuity of the mineralization. the size of the blasting grid etc. See Tona (1985) for details of the geology. It occurs entirely wihin the basement gneisses. The theoretical checks mentioned in the third point have been relegated to an annex.1 The Experimental Pit The objectives in opening up the experimental pit were threefold: (1) to provide not only an inventory of the material produced but also a detailed analysis of the data collected so as to understand the effects of mLnLng on the insitu reserves. This would provide us with accurate information about the efficiency of the drilling grid and the practical implications for mine planning. R. To do this an experimental open pit was started and a numerical modelization of the deposit using the geostatistical technique of conditional simulation was carried out. Other mineralizations occur along N 20E fractures in fresh rocks and in NortheastSouthwest clay fillings. (2) to analyse differences between the gradetonnage predictions made using the development drillholes and the production results.). The main mineralization is found within an EastWest vertical tectonic zone displaced by a series of late N 20E faults. Because of their importance in practice the first two points are discussed in the following. BLAISE In any reserve estimation method. we wanted to find out how selectively it could be mined.g. or at least to test their applicability to this deposit. In addition to characterizing the gradetonnage curve.
3. Eighteen hundred blastholes were drilled on a 3m x 3m grid in order to delimit the orebody. while Table 2 presents the overall characteristics of the geological reserves. In the third phase an experimental pit was mined to test the possibilities of recovering the thin and irregular minerali zations.). and to verify the accuracy of the geological interpre tation of the mineralizations (e. The ore selection criteria were (1) the radiometric survey of the faces so as to load the trucks as homogeneously as possible.COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES 171 The development work on the orebody was done in three steps. the grades have been multiplied by a coefficient. As expected. All this information was used in the first ore evaluation of the deposit. the uranium grades in Kg/ton ('/.. and (2) the scannin~ of each truck by an automatic scintillometer to decide whether to send the truck to ore or waste. . At the northern end the drillhole spacing was 20 x 20m.50m). Note: The ore tonnages are given in percentage of the total tonnage without selection. by 13m deep and was roughly elliplical in shape. By this we mean the sum of all the mineralizations found ln the radiometric measurements made on 10cm core sections. Firstly 108 vertical holes (both percussion and diamond drillholes) were drilled from the surface on a nominally 15m x 15m grid to determine the limits of the orebody. During mining the bench height varied from 3m to 6m to test the effect of this parameter on the selectivity. THE PRODUCTION FIGURES The production figures for the experimental pit are given in Table 1. the production figures are under these.g. and to ensure confidentiality. the continuity in the vertical and horizontal directions) which were the basis of previous evaluations. This excavation was about 150m long by 90m wide at the surface. After this. The geological reserves correspond to a selection made on 10cm samples. underground work were carried out in order to have a better understanding of the geological structures and of the relations between the mineralizations and these structures at depth (. Three hundred and twenty metres of drift and crosscut were constructed and thirty diamond drillholes were drilled on six sections 30m apart. and also to enable us to proceed with a new ore reserve evaluation.
for a regulari zation of the data). is used to model the selectivity of the ore so as to be able to go from the geological insitu reserves to the recoverable reserves. Then we will represent this regularization by its equivalent block. It is important to note that this is a hypothetical block.5 12.74 1.0 1. Cutoff ( 0 f 0 0 ) % Ore Metal Grade (0 f . We do not have any experimental data corresponding for it. SANS AND J.2 1 .52 TABLE 2. ) 0.8 4. 90 11.83 14.78 6. This block. Reconstituting 1m long core sections The first step is to regularize the 10cm core sections into 1m long ones for the blastholes from the experimental open pit. We will then see if we can find a regulari zation that has the same characteristics as the production figures.9 1. ) % Ore Metal Grade ( 0 f •• ) 1.87 12.0 1.64 8. 74 7. 97 8. This is a purely experimental comparison. The statistics of this population are: .3 1 . Cutoff (0 f .8 2.23 2.20 1. BLAISE TABLE 1.. 4.172 H.4 1 . Production figures.5 19.55 24. The available data allow us to calculate the grade tonnage curves for the samples or for groups of samples (i. called the equivalent block.e. R.6 1 .8 14. 45 26.8 24.1.. Geological reserves. THE EQUIVALENT BLOCK The objective was to find a block size B with the same grade tonnage relation as for the material exploited in the experi mental open pit. 45 16.1 1.
)2 23. . 3 m apart 6 m apart Cutoff % Ore Metal Grade %0 % Ore Metal Grade %0 1.23% Variance 32. 18' / .86 8. Statistics for Groups of 4 Points Two configurations of 4 points located in squares with 3m and 6m sides respectively were considered.2(%.6 1 . When comparing the two sets of regrouped points with the 1m regularized information. 75 10.2. The ratio of the variances for 1m sections compared to the 6m apart groups is 0. No of Samples: 8098 Dispersion variance: 76.305.5 1.65 1.78 7.5 1 .1 1 .0 18.. TABLE 3. Their average grades were calculated level by level experimentally. which means that much of the contrast between the 1m grades found within the deposit is smoothed out by the regularization procedure.3 1 .)2 4.3(%0)2 .6 ('/.45 26. the three mean values are very similar but the dispersion variances are quite different.8 22.COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES 173 Mean: 2. So this regularization could be used to describe the change from the geological to the recoverable reserves.5 17. The statistics for the regularized data ~n 3m and 6m squares is given below: 3m squares 6m squares N' of samples 1833 789 Mean grade 2.66 8.30 24.93 7.5 1 . The statistics for these two populations are given in Table 3. Groups of 4 points.84 6.38 2.29% 2.32 27.97 We see that the population of average grades for the 6m squares corresponds quite well with the production figures given in Table 1.
that the optimal grid would be 6m. The 3m grid is an essential element in the mining process and for the selection of are in the wider sense of the word. Cutoff (.15 1 .8 1. 46 1.40 1. The grades are high but the ore pockets are small. (Table 4). Conventional profit. R. The mineralization is linked with the fracturing.Ore x Cutoff Grade).34 2. respectively. The Variogram Model Chosen The fitted variogram model for the 1m long sections was the sum of two spherical models with ranges of 1. SANS AND J. TABLE 4. which explains the short range structure. / . 31 1. This is then the equivalent block B.20 4. The difference between the 6m apart group and the production figures is small but systematically positive.174 H.5 1. (Table 5). has been calculated for the three populations for each cutoff.3. ) Production 3 m Groups 6 m Groups 1.. BLAISE Important Note: It would be totally incorrect to deduce from this. 45 1.5m and 11. We now use the variogram to determine the equivalent block. indicating that the production figures correspond to a variance (that of the future equivalent block) which is slightly lower than for the 6m squares. In the first phase the uranium was associated with the mylonite. The conventional profit defined by Matheron (1984) as being (U metal . .0m and with sills of 50. The size of these pockets (about 10m) explains the second structure. The grades of blocks of this size will have nearly the same geostatistical characteristics as the averages grades of 4 points set 6m apart and so will match with the grades of the ore mined. and 30. 55 1 .44 1. So we see that the block size with about 70% variance reduction is 3m x 3m x 4m. This variogram model was used to calculate the reduction in the dispersion variance for different sized blocks. Calculating the grades from the 6m squares is just a simple way to duplicate the grade tonnage curve obtained from the combined miningselection procedure.30 1. The geological interpretation of these two structures is fairly clear. Later on the uranium was dispersed into larger almond shaped pockets with variable ore grades.
we prefer a 3m x 3m x 4m block to the sets of 4 points 6m apart.709 5m 0. Reduction in the dispersion variance. and the scintillometric scanning of trucks. Knowing its exact size or shape is of little importance.726 Comment: For most metals. the sampling procedure (radiometric measurements made at the mining face). making the selection on poorly known small blocks may be equivalent to a selection on perfectly known larger blocks. This is why it is important. even if this representation is convenient for making predictions. the selection block is quite well defined. The equivalent block is simply a convenient way of regrouping the effect of all these factors on the final recoverable reserves. In addition to the grades themselves. the selection process is not simply a free selection of blocks above the cutoff. many other factors come into play.COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES 175 TABLE 5. But this also depends on how accurately the block grades are estimated. However in most uranium mines. In principle the smaller the support of this block is. going from 1m vertical samples to 3x3m blocks. Since it is better to have a more plausible shape and size. It is the block that can be exploited individually and selected as either ore or waste. All that really counts are its geostatis tical characteristics. the better the selectivity is. The selection criteria are more difficult to formulate.669 3m 0.626 2m 0. For example the mining block described by Kavourinos (1987. So the concept of an equivalent block is more complex in this case than the selection block for metallic mines. for example the geometric constraints related to the shape of the mineralized sections and to the size of the mining machinery. From the point of recovery. the size of the blasting grid. . in this volume). Height of block Reduction 1m 0.69 4m 0.
x 3m blocks. TABLE 6.08 High Selectivity 2.43 Now the actual selectivity.5 15.8 20. We then tried to construct several different 15m sampling grids from the 3m grid data in order to estimate the experimental fluctuations directly.5 15.2.a high selectivity hypothesis where the selection is made on 2.6 1. The 15m grid can be seen to give much less favourable results (Tables 7 and 8. The Blastholes in the pit To test this hypothesis. for the experimental MCO . as represented by the variance of the equivalent block. COMPARING THE PREDICTIONS FROM THE 15m GRID WITH REALITY 5. Cutoff • / • 0 % Ore Metal Grade • / 0 • 1 .176 H. SANS AND J.07 Low Selectivity 2. This suggests that a . Predictions of recoverable reserves using the 15 m development grid.17 7. 28 6.7 1. The local recoverable reserves were calculated for 20m x 20m x 6m panels for two different cutoffs (1.1.8 21 .5m x 2. six of these can be obtained by moving the origin. Predictions from the 15m Grid. fits neatly within the range of selectivity given by the two hypotheses.5'/ •• ) and for two selectivity hypotheses . The effect of making selections based on 1. BLAISE 5.5m long sections on a 15m grid can be compared directly with the same figures for the 3m grid. (Figure 2). but the 3m grid is too incomplete for that.63 1 .8·/ •• and 2.5 1. 45 7. we used the data from the 3m grid from the experimental open pit for the comparison. and Figure 1). So it is interesting to see whether the differences between the predicted reserves and the production figures may be due simply to random error linked to the 15m grid. There are important differences between these. The predictions and the production figures given in Table 6 show that the actual results exceed both sets of predictions. which are due to the extreme skewness of the distribution and to the smallness of the structure. So we had to restrict ourselves to using a smaller sized grid (9m x 12m). 5. 1 1. 35 8.5m x 3m blocks and a low selectivity one where the selection is made on the kriged grades of 3m x 3m. R.
TABLE 7.45 18. .86 1.5 11. 42 2.4 1.55 27 . 45 16./'/ (3 m blasthole grid) • • • J Figure 1..10 1 .8 16. 0 Geological reserves .5 m samples from the 3 m block grid . or considerably exceeded it.05 1./ . \ Ore Metal Grade .0 (3 m blasthole grid) ~.5 m samples from the 15 m development grid .. 5 2.77 14 . 0. Cutoff • I . Grade as a function of cutoff./ . ". 16 7. 9 1. 0 . Cutoff .4 1.5 12. 1.COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES 177 different location for the 15m grid could have led to estimates that were closer to the reality.. 88 10 . 97 7.6 1 .7 1. 14 7 . 1. 5 msamples . 55 25 .. \ Ore Metal Grade .84 11. 1 ..8 15./ . 6 1. 06 9 .08 TABLE 8. 1 1 .6 1.1 1. 24 4.
iderable variability among the values.8 'f" cutoff.8 'f" and 2. SANS AND J.7 to 13. The grades ranged from 10.5m long sections of core corresponding to two cutoffs. The variables studied were the grade and the metal of 1.178 H.7 for the 2. 1.. with the 15m x 15 m grids the edge effects were too marked.8 for the 1. The dotted line represents the fluctuations observed with a 9 x 12 m2 grid of blastholes. .0 m grid I . Grade as a function of cutoff for 1.d • • Figure 2.48 sets on a 9x12m grid. This was carried out on the part of the deposit corresponding to the experimental open pit.3. The number of drillholes taken into consideration would depend too heavily on the origin chosen. . despite its fineness.5 'f". R. 5. BLAISE . .16 sets on a 6x6m grid.5 'f" cutoff. " m grid.5m samples. The most important results were: (1) For the 3m grid.4 sets of data on a 3x3m grid.5m grid. there was still cons. The Conditional Simulation In order to simulate the future exploitation. Three grid sizes were studied: .3 to 11. This large set of regularly spaced data made it possible to study the fluctuations in the values for different sized grids by varying the origin of the grid. This contained the simulated grades of the blastholes on a 1. while they varied from 11. a numerical model of the deposit was set up using the conditional simulation method applied to the data from the development drillholes.. 0 .
This simple method is only approximate if the grid size is large compared to the variogram range. these holes were particularly poor within the experimental pit. For the relative standard deviations. it is rather surpr~s~ng that the difference is not even larger (Figures 3 and 4) . The relative standard deviation is 25% for the grade and the metal for the 1. 5m samples on the 15m development grid and the 3m blasthole grid.4. 4. the results are similar to the experimental data as far as the dispersion between the results is concerned.8'/ •• cutoff. whereas it is 11% for the ore tonnage . The Differences between the GradeTonnage Curves We have seen that the predicted recoverable reserves in the pit were below the actual production figures. It increases with grid size but decreases as the size of the zone studied increases . As the experimental pit is a . These results are consistent with the preceding ones.12% for the 6m x 6m grid .COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PROD UCTION FIG URES 179 (2) For the 6m grid. The richest mineralizations that were missed here happened to ' lie just underneath the pit. the predictions are even higher than for the 1. Moreover despite the larger support. (3) For the 9m x 12m grid. we obtained . But considering how large the difference between the 1. and the estimation variance is calculated by dividing the basic extension variance for a drillhole by the number of these panels.5% for the 3m x 3m grid . In fact. From this we can deduce that the relative standard deviation would be about 35% to 40% for the 15m x 15m grid since there would be half as many drillholes.20% for the 9m x 12m grid. and is slightly higher for the higher cutoff. but it nevertheless gives an order of magnitude estimate . 5 . the relative standard deviation for the grades is 15%. They show that the different sized development grids have random errors associated with them.5m samples in the drillholes. The order of magnitude of their variance can be calculated. The variogram of the grades is used for this . 5. where the grade was found to be three times higher. The zone where the grades are to be estimated is divided into panels. Calculating the theoretical precision of the grades before any selection is made.
Conventional profit versus cutoff. 1..0. e  .. '. . . 0 " O~.. 1. R..0 High selectivity predictions 0" o Low selectivity predictions o. (1 . 5 m sampl~~) 4 ..... Metal as a function of percentage ore ..... ....... SANS AND J. ····0 Production figures ~ o.... ..I~ ~' CI Figure 3. ~ . Figure 4.0 ~.... '0 High selec t ivi t y predictions A~ Low selectivity predic t ions 15 m d rillhole gr i d (l.... (1 . .. ..~ "'e 3 m blasthole grid 0..180 H. 3 m blasthole grid ... 0 Production figures 0·' .. .0. '3ot. BLAISE _ . . ... ... 20.... 5 m samples) ' 1).. ~ " 15 m drillhole grid ~~ (1 .. .. 5 m samples) . 5 m samples ) "S ........... ~ '== .
But it is clear from the gradetonnage curves (Figures 3 and 4) that the estimation method has partly corrected the particularly poor grades of the holes within the pit. the production objective (of 450 tons of uranium at 7'/ •• ) is only known with a relative precision (10) of 11. This lack of precision leads to: (1) a risk of not meeting production objectives (2) a nonoptimal blasting layout (3) changing the mining parameters from time to time. All of these repercussions lead to a less efficient recovery of the reserves. The Metal Recovery The 3m grid of blastholes is indispensable in order to accurately delimit the ore and waste zones and to minimize the dilution.1. Infill drilling of the 15m grid would double the number of holes available for estimating the reserves and would reduce the standard deviation to 8. CONSEQUENCES These essentially concern what should be done to exploit the deposit in the best way.COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCfION FIGURES 181 rather small volume. There is still a difference which has to be considered as primarily being a random error due to the lack of precision of the 15m grid. So the best grid for annual planning is therefore 7. As an example of this. The 15m grid of surface drillholes is quite inadequate for planning the annual production. so as to obtain a satisfactory metal recovery at the lowest cost. these rich grades had a weight of 15% in the kriging of the service variables that was used for the predictions. 6. This error is local which means that the validity of the prediction for the whole mine is not brought into question.5m. Halving the drillhole spacing means quadrupling the number of drillholes. There is no simple direct way of evaluating their influence. and even more so for short term planning.5%. The relative standard deviation would then be 5.7% which provides a satisfactory range for the estimates of the metal. since the distribution of the grades for the whole deposit influences service variables calculations. . 6.5%.1% instead of 11. that is.
Geological Assoc. For example it has been shown that the 7. in "The Carlswell Uranium Deposits. Canada. G. Dordrecht.. Sasketechewan". Secondly they can be of help in explaining short and middle term fluctuations in the grades and the tonnages that are seen during production. Reidel & Co. & Martin. ed. Minimizing the Cost per Ton The other advantage of using a 7. which would help in optimizing the layout of the blastholes. R. Holland.5m grid is that the waste zones would be much more clearly defined. Matheron. pp. Special Paper N' 29 . 1984: The Selectivity of the Distributions and the Second Principle of Geostatistics. 1987: The GradeTonnage Curves for a Zinc Mine in France. SANSANDJ. Laine. Reidel & Co. Sans. Dordrecht. Dordrecht. 1985: Geology and Mineralization in the Carlswell Structure: A General Approach. .. ed. In order to be quite objective the advantages of using a 7.5m development grid is much better suited to annual production planning than the 15m one. in the NATO ASI "Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization". BLAISE 6. 421434 . H. 10711086. M.2. This would contribute to improving the mining method and thus lower the cost per ton. G. et al. pp.182 H. 7 CONCLUSIONS This study shows that geostatistical methods provide a satis factory way of characterizing the gradetonnage curve for this type of deposit. Reidel & Co . ed. In particular they make it possible to go from the geological insitu reserves to the recoverable reserves. V.5m grid should be assessed by comparing the extra cost involved in drilling more holes with the increased revenue. Verly. REFERENCES Kavourinos Ch.. Geostatistical CaseStudies. and Svab. Alonso.. S.. in the NATO ASI "Geostatis tics for Natural Resource Characterization". R. Holland. Verly. G. Tona. In fact drilling the 7.5m grid for the annual production would only cost the equivalent of about 1 Uton. Holland. D. 1984: Technical Parametrization of Uranium Reserves to be Mined".
)2. . the various estimation variances and the change of support . From this it is clear that the 219 values are not representative of the pilot opeh pit. The mean of the 8098 values for the pilot open pit was 2 . This has to be compared to the theoretical extension variance of 67. the theoretical mean is./ ' .COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGUR ES 183 APPENDIX One of the objectives in this study was to test some of the theoretical results given by geostatistics to see how well they worked in practice. the dispersion variance.e. The variances were 76 . ~(V.8('/. (a) Results In this case the mean grade of each 15m x 15m x 1m panels V to be estimated was obtained by averaging all its blasthole samples and the estimator v was the central blasthole grade. )2 . the estimation error) experimentally and compare them with the theoretical results obtained using the formula: a 2 ext = 2~(v.44'/" and the variance was (114'/. 5m samples were regularized into 3m composites. Their mean and variance are much larger . we would rather present an example where the theoretical and the experimental variances are not in close agreement and try to see why. (b) Interpreting the Results To get these figures into perspective we present the statistics for two sets of 1m long samples. v) The mean of the 219 errors calculated was 1. The Extension Variance This formula gives the variance of the error made when using the average grade over the volume v to estimate the average grade of V. When the 1 . They concerned the regularized variogram. A.. 17 while that of the 219 values used in the tests was 3 . As it is impossible to present all the results here. the mean stayed the same and the variance and the distribution were found to be close to those given by geostatistics.. (The error is assumed to be zero on average) . zero . 75 . ~(v . We were able to calculate the differences between these two grades (i. In such cases the geostatistical formulae work well.V) . which gives a mean square error of 116 (.)2.V) . 6 and 144 respectively.1. of course.
. the differences between the variances for different sets of data are often related to differences between their mean values.. the less precise the estimates are. The test was carried out using the 1m long samples on the 3m grid. . So although the proportional effect is quite pronounced.. The Proportional Effect For a given support size..J14:" • ..:.".:~ .A . •• ... .. it is not exactly lognormal (or else the slope would have been 2..184 H. The mean and the variance of the grades within 15m x 15m x 1m panels were calculated for all panels containing at least 20 sample grades..167.0). for 1m samples within 15 x 15 x 1 m3 panels.. R.. /." / / / / / Me Figure A1.?!.. In general the variance increases with the mean./.. Figure A1 shows the scatter diagram of variance against mean on a bilogarithmic scale. In fact the theoretical formulae would correspond to the results for all possible choices. BLAISE A different choice for the origin of the sets would have given different results. the proportional effect was used to scale the estimation variance since it is clear that the higher the local mean is. but the exact relation between the two is not known a priori. The slope of the regression line was 2. . for example.~ . J~'::» .. Proportional effect on a bilogarithmic scale.. When the service variables were kriged using the data from the 15m grid.~(. yo .. A. It lS important to determine it because of its influence on local estimation variances. . We will now see what sort of relationship there is between the mean and the variance for grades. / / / / / / / / / • . SANS AND J.2. /.
COMPARING ESTIMATED URANIUM GRADES WITH PRODUCTION FIGURES 185 This example refers to 1m samples within a 15m x 15m x 1m panel. P. and there is no simple way of predicting it. Slama for the kind permission given in publishing this paper. . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank AMOK Ltd. particularly Mr J. If a different support size or a different sized zone had been chosen. the relationship would have been different.
. DEMANGE (*). This defines the recoverable reserves. mosaic) have been tested on skewly distributed uranium data. Technical as well as economic constraints make it necessary to select only a fraction of these resources. France. C. LANTUEJOUL (**).GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES: TESTING VARIOUS CHANGES OF SUPPORT MODELS ON URANIUM DATA.that is the minimal volume of material that can be selected. 187208. Matheron and M. Ch. © l <Nil by D. Si.). 187 G. J. These are often very poor or very rich. negative binomial. ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS. Four models (gaussian. and can give the illusion of an easy separation between ore and waste. the grade distribution of the selection blocks has to be estimated from that of the cores. They gave satisfactory results for the global estimates of the recoverable reserves. LAJAUNIE (**). the available data correspond to very small supports (for instance cores). ** Centre de Geostatistique. Reidel Publishing Company. Ch. gamma.nce the miners exploit blocks and not cores. VelizyVillacoublay. 77305 Fontainebleau. Geostatistical Case Studies. Armstrong (eds. RIVOIRARD (**) * COGEMA. When recoverable reserves are to be estimated from systematic reconnaissance data. The slight differences between the models were due to the differences between the hypotheses for the four models. INTRODUCTION The insitu resources of a deposit cannot usually be mined out completely. The selectivity is closely related to the size of the "selection support" . ABSTRACT A model is needed to estimate the distribution of selection blocks (and then the recoverable reserves) from the distribution of samples. France.
. So the difference between the gaussian. It is said to be local when it refers to part of the deposit: panels for instance. First we look at the underlying hypothesis as they appear in the fundamental Cartier's relation. CARTIER'S RELATION . It is based on a transformation of grades into a gaussian variable.THE GAUSSIAN CASE The change of support model. This poses problems when many sample values are equal (for instance 50% of zero values). given a block V with grade Z(V). gamma. Afterwards we will show the results given by the various models. DEMANGE ET AL. and on the assumption of bivariate normality of the pairs after transformation.188 C. are of course not neutral on the results.Z(V)). One model often used for determining the block grade distribution from the point support one is the discretized gaussian model (Matheron (1978)). which lead to other models. which will be given explicitly for the gaussian case. This article examines the results of changes of support made using the gaussian. Then we will indicate the condition under which this work has been made. must satisfy Cartier's relation: E(Z(y)lz(v)) = Z(V) which states that. and the mosaic models comes from the bivariate hypothesis that is made on the pairs (Z(~). a gaussian value has to be given to each sample. the grade of a sample~. negative binomial and mosaic models for a uranium deposit. Other hypotheses can be made on the pairs of grades. This estimation is said to be global when it refers to the whole deposit. the better the results. These hypotheses. the gamma. when local estimates are made. which cannot be entirely tested. Some theoretical points about these models will be give~ in the Appendices. A model for changing the support on the grade distribu tion has then to be used. Moreover. In this case. has to be equal on average to the grade of v. 1. the distribution model of blocks has to be "conditioned" by the samples in the neighbourhood of the panel. The more relevant the model. which enables us to deduce the grade distribution of blocks V from the distribution of the grades Z(v) of samples v (which is known). the negative binomial. randomly located in V.
after the variables have been transformed into normal variables . these pairs are supposed to be bivariate normal. In the V same way. THE CASE STUDY The casestudy has been made on a uranium deposit containing 54 vertical drillholes each with fortytwo 1.as the grades are less dispersed as the support increases. ~v is then given by Cartier's relation: ~V(y) = E[~(Yy)IYv = y] If 9 denotes the standard normal density .5 m sections (i. Clearly both have the same mean but. if one assumes that the grades are lognormally distributed.e . As the pairs (Yy'Y V ) are supposed bivariate normal. 2. or. which satisfies: ltv) = ~(yv) where y 1S a standard normal variable associated to the samples.lv(V.V) which is known from the variogram model for the samples. .GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES l~ In the gaussian model. The point is to estimate the distribution of selection blocks from the distribution of these samples. then this can be rewritten as : ~V(Y) = f +00 00 ~(ry+{1r2u) g(u) du The correlation r between Yy and yV is chosen to ensure that the variance of ltv) = ~v(Yv) satisfies: Var ltV) = Var ltv) . gaussian anamorphosis functions can be used. these distributions are characterized by their dispersion variance (which is given by linear geostatistics). a total of 2 268 sample grades) . more generally. These transformations can be logarithmic. The grade distribution of samples ltv) (which is known) is then perfectly defined by its gaussian anamorphosis function ~ (known again). the grade distribution of blocks Z(V) will be completely determined by its anamorphosis function ~v : ltV) = ~v(yv) where Yv 1S the standard normal variable associated to the blocks.
above all.selected metal Q as a function of z (i. and the regular ized data variance is 2. 3."conventional profit" 8(z ) = Q(z ) .81.e. these were then compared to their real distribution.88 for regularized data . The real block distribution is not available. As the data are very regularly located (regular grid of constant hole length). and for a given z . it was possible to regularize the 1. as well as more useful. The average grade m is 0.selected tonnage T as a function of the cutoff grade z (represented by the proportion of values above z ) c c .5 m samples of a given hole.5 m regularized data.190 C. the significant numbers are: . For a given value of T. each model gives an estimate for the regularized data distribution. the sample variance a 2 is 9.z T(z) c c c c .and. (The number 14 is chosen so that these regularized data can be used as if they were selection blocks.2). Lastly.32. DEMANGE ET AL. metal contained c in the values above zc) .0. It is more convenient. Then the tests can be summarized in the following way: from the sample distribution. As the grades have been multiplied by an arbitrary coefficient in order to preserve confidentiality. into three 14 x 1.lastly the metal Q as a function of the tonnage T. .2. to compare grade tonnage type curves rather than simple histograms: . RESULTS AND COMPARISON The point is to estimate the distribution of "blocks" (here regularized data) from the experimental distribution of samples. The dispersion variances are of the same Size order). the variance reduction when going ~rom samples to "blocks": (9 . Let us now have a look at the elementary statistics. there are 70% of waste sample values (which are coded arbitrarily between 0 and 0. 8 also decreases as the support increases (which is the point of this conventional profit). Q decreases as the support increases.3)/9 == 74%. and so cannot be used as a reference to test the various change of support models. and to compare the results with the experimental distribution of blocks.the coefficients of variation aim: 3.7 for samples 1.
and Q and B as fractions of the total quantity of metal. The differences that were observed between the models come from the hypothesis relative to each of them. In practice. and the mosaic and the gaussian models respectively. The gamma model gives slightly better results on high grades. in order to compare the degree of selectivity between different deposits. Similarly. whereas the mosaic model proves to be excellent overall. or parts of the deposit. where waste passes and variably mineralized passes can be found alternatively. . Figures 2 and 3 present the results corresponding to the negative binomial and the gaussian models. The choice of the parameters for the gamma. The gaussian model gives satisfactory results as does the negative binomial one. gamma negative binomial. It will be interesting to study the behaviour of these models for local estimation. CONCLUSION All four models tested here (gaussian.e. negative binomial and mosaic models is explained in the appendices.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 191 Moreover it is convenient to express T as a fraction of the total tonnage. This probably stems from the "mosaic" structure of the deposit. The differences between experimental and estimated curves are very small. mosaic) gave quite satisfactory results when estimating global recoverable reserves under difficult conditions (i. for each of these curves. for a skew distribution). Figure shows the results of the gaussian and gamma models superimposed on the experimental results. one would expect larger differences that would come from the definition and the variance of the selection support.
. 13. 4. Q Yo 1. Gamma model .. :.5 0...:. EXPERIMENTAL GAUSSIAN GAMMA .1 0.7 "\ 0... DEMANGE ET AL.:. 9.4 0. 2. 7..0 0.:.3 EXPERIMENTAL 3. .. 1. 10... Figure 1a.. 5.9 GAUSSIAN GAMMA 0.  4.192 C.::. . Gamma model . .Quantity of metal. 5..6 0..' 0... 7. 9. " Figure 1b .:. 6.•. 3..'..Tonnage. B.3 0.. B.2 .::.. 6.B 0..::..
1.'3 8.8 1.Conventional profit versus cutoff grade. 7. 3.5 0.S B. .8 80'S .4 B.1 B. Figure 1d.B 0. Gamma model . 9. 10.6 0.7 B. 4.8 Figure 1c.Quantity of metal versus selected tonnage.. 2.8 T X 8.B EXPERIMENTAL B. 5.8 8. 8.7 B. Gamma model . 9 GAUSSIAN GAMMA B.l 0.2 8.8 8.B B.8 B. B. B % 1.7 8.1 8.5 8. 6.8 8.1 B.3 ______ EXP"ftlHENTAL 8.2 GAUSSIAN ___ ___ OAt4KA B...GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 193 g % 1.14 8.2 B.3 B.
Figure 2b.Tonnage. 2.0 Experiment. 3.6 0.6 0.0 Z 0. 7. 9• 10.7 0.7 0.B 0. DEMANGE ET AL.al 0. 10. 6. 14.14 0.2 0.0 Z 0. B.5 0. 6. Figure 2a. .9 Geu • • tan N.0 Experiment.5 0. 1. . 2.194 C.1 0. 1. Negative binomial model .lve binomial 0. 5. T eZl 1.ga~iv. B.al Gau •• ian 0. 9. 7.2 0.14 0.3 0.B 0. 5.9 ~ Nagat. Q eZl 1. Negative binomial model . binomial 0.1 B.3 0.Quantity of metal. 3.
Conventional profit versus cutoff grade.7 a.9 1. 10...7 1.8 0.9 9. B (Z) 1.1 0. 3. ~.0 Experimental Gau • • tan 0. 6.. Figure 2d.2 0." 8.~ 1.8 Figure 2c.. 10" 1. 5. Negative binomial model .~ 0.. 9.9 Negative binomial 0.Quantity of metal versus selected tonnage.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 195 Q(T) 1.~ 9.1 8. 2.1 8. I.9 L__ ~ __ ~ ____L __ ~ __ ~ ____ ~ __ ~ __ ~ ____ ~ __ ~ T a. 8.& 8.0 0.& 8..6 0. 1.5 8.& 1.8 1.5 .8 1. Negative binomial model .2 •••••• 0 .5 0.2 a. 7.7 0.8 9.. .3 0..
Mosaic model . 2. : . B. Figure 3a.7 .: B. " .l '. MOSAIC B."'::'..9 GAUSSIAN I.. Q Yo loB EXPERIMENTAL B.:...2 ".. 6.. .3 0.6 0. . 1.B :z B. 'I.'I 0... 9. Figure 3b. . 3.Quantity of metal. 0. 5.Selected tonnage.5 B. Mosaic model .: .B B. B. 7.. 1 B. ..
S 1. Figure 4). unbounded at the origin. 7. ~f a > 1. s. Figure 4.THE GAMMA MODEL 1. Various possible shapes for the gamma density function. 18. ~. s. THE GAMMA DENSITY FUNCTION A random variable Y is said to have a gamma distribution if its probability density function 1S Y aI (y > 0) ga{Y) = e Y r (a) where a is a positive parameter.8 1. In the intermediate case a = I. 9 is bellshaped and comes closer and closer to a gaussian densi~y function as a increases. 2. 8.5 1. 8. 2. and r(a) is the gamma function ria) f +00 o e. g1 is exponential.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 197 APPENDIX A . 8. 9 is a monotonic decreasing function.Y yaI dy used as norming constant. the gamma density can take various shapes (cf.8 8. Depending on the a value. . If a < 1.
3 8. "OSRIC 0. 5. 3.9 0.6 B.2 GRUSSIAN _. ' a.7 B...... _..1 B. 8._.S 8.2 B.5 B.Quantity of metal versus selected tonnage. Mosaic model ..9 GAUSSIAN MOSAIC B. 2..8 t.. 1..4.3 B.8 T X 8.q /. Mosaic model .8 a..ER 1 MENTAL B._.2 8... 7 8. 8. . B Yo loB EXf'..1 8. B.198 C.7 8. 9. 6.8 8. DEMANGE ET AL.8 8.8 8 .. .5 o. lB..8 Figure 3c.Conventional profit versus cutoff grade. .8 0..8 a. " Q 1.. B. .B B. 7.3 ______ EXf'IEIUJ1ENTAL a.l . " Figure 3d.8 B.
it is convenient to use an expansion of them into a basis of polynomials that are orthonormal for 9 . Cartier's formula E {Z(~)lz(v)} = Z(V) can be rewritten E {~(Yy)IYv) = lj)v(Y v ) Now.:: 1'n C (cx. as follows. = >. a relationship between ~ and ~' can be easily obtained. The normalized Laguerre polynomial of degree n can be definca using Rodrigues' formula (Sze(ji:i.) Starting from this hypothesis. The gamma isofactorial model is based upon thg follow1ng hypothesis (Matheron. where Yv and Y v have the gamma density vfunctions 9 and 9 .cx') Qa. l' < 1.' and ~V = L ~'n Qn n=O and observe that these polynomials are interchangeable . 1939) cx Q (y) n 2. In order to manipulate functions of a gamma variable. we expand the two anamorphosis functions into Laguerre polynomials. 1984): if ~ stands for a sample uniformly located within the block v. (x) gOo' (y) n=O where 0 .y) n n n y go. and where ~:n) r (a) ~ r (a. THE GAMMA ISOFACTORIAL MODEL Now we consider Z(v) = ~(Y ) and Z(V) = ~v(Yv). the bivariate density fry Y) is bigamma: ~' V +00 .+n) r (a..(x) Qcx ( ) f(x. In particu lar E(Y) = cx and Var(Y) = cx. +00 a.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 199 The gamma density function has moments of all orders.
. 2.81 and the variance Var{Z(V)} = Va1'{Z(v)}  1 (V. so that we deduce .2) = p{Z(v) < 0. Of course. a/ and r must satisfy: +00 +00 Val' {Z(V)} L 1jl'2 = L l'2n C2(a a') 1jl2 n n' n n=1 n=1 and thus L C2(a.a') is a decreasing function of a/. This is the reason why we have iXtroduced a multiplicative constant b and have required E {b Y } v = E{Z(v)) = 0.V) = 2.7 So.2) 0. we obtain a = 0 . In the present case.a') 1jl2 ~ Var (Z(V)} n n n=1 But C (a. a max = 0. The assessment of a' and r is not so easy .200 C. the correlation coefficient between QU(y ) ~nd QU (Y v ) is rnCn(a.323.431. 115. . say a max ' In the present case. this ~nequality can only hold if a' is smaller than a certain value . These are the mean value E{Z(V)) = E{Z(v)} = 0. the block parameter a' and the coefficient 1'.a ) 1jl (n 0. this criterion is only meaningful provided that y 'and Z(v) have the same mean.7 . w~ must necessarily take a' ~ a. 1. Indeed only two block statistics are available. Furthermore. n . CHOICE OF THE PARAMETERS Three parameters must be assessed: the s ample parameter a. ) n n n 3. ii) because of the relation between the two anamorphosis func  tions.2} = 0. DEMANGE ET AL.a'). But the first one is taken into account directly b~ Cartier's relation. . As a consequence. it is preferable to choose a so as to preserve some salient structural features of the sample distribution. Ip =1' C(a. there are several constraints upon a I: ~) if n ~ 1. To have it less than 1 for any n. In principle.810 P (b Y v < 0. In practi ce however. we have decided to preserve the percentage of waste grades P {Z(v)<0. u can be chosen arbitrarily.
Thus maintaining the proportiofta~f waste blocks is not a suitable criterion for the choice of cr'. The experimental proportion of waste blocks is P {Z(V} < 0 .S 8. . the choice of cr' is not without consequen ces.~ 8. f'OlNT DRTA B. As soon as cr' has been fixed. we have seen that cr' ~ cr./ B./ .8 8.5 . Let band b' the two multiplicative constants such that . . .403.8 8.7 . any cr' such that cr ~ cr' ~ crmax is possible.432. Of course. a value close to cr ../ B.8 8. BLOCK DATA _0_"_ 0 GAMMA "./ / / B.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 201 To sum up. .9 1. On the other hand./ .2 .\ 8.B T X 8./ B. 8 .8 . although somewhat different. 2} 0. the value cr' = cr best results. which simply expresses the fact that the block distribution is closer to a gaussian distribution than the sample one.9 .7 8. which corresponds to cr' = 0. How can we interpret it? max gives the Q X loB B.~ .~ B.\ ". As it is shown on Figure 5..2 8.8 Figure 5. Comparing the quantity of metal/selected tonnage curves for different parameter values of the gamma model. the formula +00 Var {Z(V}} = [ ~'2 n n=1 imposes r . ~ B.
. DEMANGE ET AL.202 C. So. A simple way to satisfy this inequality 1S to require the preservation of the variance ratios Var {b Y } Var (Z(v)} v Var {b'Y V } Var (Z(V)} which gives a' = 0. a possible interpretation is that the chosen value a ~g~responds to the gamma isofactorial model that best respectsm~~e variance ratio.455 > a .
We need two conditions.THE NEGATIVE BINOMIAL MODEL Discrete models are a priori well suited to modelling phenomena with a marked spike at the origin. MODEL OF SAMPLE GRADES The first step is to choose the parameters of the negative binomial model associated with the sample support. and normalized by the condition Hn(O) = 1: E [H (1) H ( I ) ] = I: H (i) H (i) P. Here we study the binomial negative model.. I r(u) 1. The first one will obviously be given by the percentage of waste samples P . which is in some respects the discrete counterpart of the gamma model.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 203 APPENDIX B . The trade off is the necessity to discretize the continuous part of the distribution. NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION The negative binomial model depends upon two parameters. One simple choice is: . The set of orthogonal polynomials with respect to P.pU . any function of I. = 6 . r(u) n! n min m 1 nm r(u+n) pn can easily be calculated from the following relationship n Hn _ 1 (i) + [iq . with finite variance can be expressed as an (infinite) sum of Hn (I) : ~(I) = I: l/ln Hn (I) n E [~(I)2] < +00 => pn r(u+n) l/ln = I: ~(i) Hn (i) P.n(p+l)] Hn(i) + p(u+n) Hn +1(i) 0 Ho(i) = H_ 1 (i) = 0 (conventional) Since this set is complete. 1. p = lq and u: i u r(u+i) L p [I=i] = P.1 i n! r(u) 2. The second one could be that the experimental and the theoretigal distributions are "as alike" as possible. = q 1 . noted 1 Hn(i).
Here we shall restrict ourselves to the following particular model. I Z 2. Ij) II) and such that the discretisation error lS minimized: "small".204 C. the general form of negative binomial isofactorial models with polynomial factors is given. The second step is to determine a transformation from sample grade z to a positive integer value i and vice versa.) iii) wij = wi Wj [ T n n n . estimates of global recoverable reserves are remarkably insensitive with respect to this choice. Our experience is that. once the first condition is met. which we have found to be the best to date: i) Pv Pv = p independent of the support size ii) U v > uv vV v V HV (i) HnV ( J. randomly located within a bloc V. <z <z 1 11 ex 1 Ij):N+R+ Z Ij)li) such that the distributions are as close as possible: elZ) 2. 3. associated with the pair. In Matheron (1983). sample v. THE CHANGE OF SUPPORT MODEL One keypoint In the estimation of global. so we need two non decreasing functions: elz ) [ i 1 ex z. as well as local recoverable reserves. The ex transforgation cannot in essence be one to one. DEMANGE ET AL. is the bivariate isofactorial model. The last step in the procedure is to calculate the expansion of Ij) in term of H : n Ij)li) = [ ~n Hn li ) An empirical and satisfactory solution has been found to this problem.
638 f( f( m S (Selectivity for samples = 0.812 = 0. which is a safe condi tion) . RESULTS The model associated with the point values is wV = 0.) Ijlv 11 ) L Ij!n HVli) n n Hence the anamorphosis: ZIV) = Ijlv l j ) =L Ij!n HnVIJ) n The parameter Uv is chosen from the variance relationship: 02 =L ~/1j!2 n n n=1 rlu v +nl) p The properties of this model are the following: . 4.645) .7 p = 0. The fitted distribution model had the following character istics: = 0. the distribution converges towards normality when the size of support increases (and 0v ~ 0).it satisfies Cartier's relationship. 15. a v The polynomial expansion was limited to the first twenty terms: Zlv) ~ Ijl II) =L $ HVII) v n~20 n n Fiftyfive classes were retained (no sample values correspond to i>54). .GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 205 rlu +n) p n v with T n rlu v) n l I iv) Ij!V Ij!v = n n Ij!n Z{.9072 u O.the grade associated with the zero value of the integer variable is preserved: (in other words. the waste remains waste.
9 E max The block model.8 0. (A reduction of variance was bound to happen because of the grouping). DEMANGE ET AL. is given by: U v = 0.5072 (0.3 E = 0. The discretisation error: E = z~oC(z} was: 02 = 6 x 10.535 for grouped samples) . whose gradetonnage curves are shown in Figure 2.206 C.51.
Cl = Var (l(v)} Moreover. in the mosaic model.dy) = [1Cl F(y)] G(dy) 6y (dx) + Cl 1x <y F(dx) G(dy) In particular.GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES 207 APPENDIX C . . From Cartier's relation ~ E (l(~}ll(V}) = l(V} we derive a formula between the two anamorphosis functions ~ and ~' J y ~I(y} = ~(y) [1 . Cl F(y} where Cl is the variance reduction Var (l(V}) 1 . it does not depend on some specific type of distribution.THE MOSAIC MODEL The mosaic model for the change of support has been introduced by Matheron in 1984. Cl) F(y} G(y} . In contrast to the gaussian or gamma model. we always have Y ~ YV . the bivariate distribution of (Yyl Yv ) is H(dx.Cl F(y}1 + Cl ~(x) F(dx} o The standardized selectivity curves displayed on Figure 3 have been obtained by taking for F the cumulative empirical distribution of l(v}. The mosaic model requires the cumulative di~tribution functions F and G of Yv and Yv to be related by (1 . Let l(v} ~(Y) and l(V} = ~1(yV}. if ~ is a randomly located sample within v.
Centre de Geostatistique. (1978): L'estimation globalc des reservcs rccupcra bles.upport en modele mosaique. Centre de Geostatistique. REFERENCES LANTUEJOUL Ch. and RIVOIRARD J. ENSMP. MATHERON G. MATHERON G. MATHERON G. . MATHERON G. ENSMP. American Mathematical Society. Fontaine bleau. in Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization. (1984): Changement de ::. SZEGO G.208 C. Fontainebleau. Fontainebleau. Sciences de la Terre n· 20. (1984): Une methode de determina tion d'anamorphose. ENSMP. (1939). Orthogonal polynomials. Centre de Geostatistiquc. (1984): Isofactorial models and change of support. Reidel. (1983): Modeles isofactoriels et changement de support. DEMANGE ET AL.
Armstrong (eds. FOR A URANIUM DEPOSIT L. de CHAMBURE(*). France ABSTRACT The uranium deposit at Bertholene in SE France has a diffuse mineralization which is divided into fairly distinct ore pockets. H. Ch. France *** TOTAL COMPAGNIE MINIERE FRANCE. Bertholene. This makes it possible to reconstitute the overall structure of mineralized veins inside a waste matrix. a 3D geostatistical model of the grades was set up directly and was used to reconstitute various sizes of selection blocks. FRAISSE(***) * T6TAL COMPAGNIE MINIERE. Geostatisticai Case Studies. Paris. The reserves were then compared to the production figures for the whole orebody and level by level. This model had been made in a two step procedure of first using indicator functions. the geostatistical predictions were compared with the production figures. ENSMP. INTRODUCTION The Bertholene uranium deposit run by Total Compagnie Miniere (France).An open pit above the 715 m level. Two of these zones have been studied: . de FOUQUET(**). Matheron and M. .CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS. The overall results obtained were compared to those given by the discretized gaussian model.). but the details of the individual veins in the model do not correspond to the reality. © 1<)87 by D. Inside the open pit. Fontainebleau. then introducing the grades. Reidel Fllblishi" g Comp""y. started underground mining in 1982. The recoverable reserves for Orebody B were calculated by applying geometrical constraints due to the mining method to a numerical model of the orebody. 209246. The openpit was 209 G. 1. In a more restricted zone. France ** Centre de Geostatistique.Orebody B which is being mined by cut and fill .
In the first part of this article. It lies several hundred meters on the southern side of a large eastwest fault (the Palanges fault) with a throw of several hundred meters. The mineralization consists of vanadates in the oxydized zone and of coffinite in the reduced zone. The thickness and the grade of the orebodies are controlled by the number and the openness of the fractures which range from isolated open fractures to stockwerk mineralization in the surrounding rock. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. Two other subvertical faults oriented N 60 and N 20. The latter is in equilibrium. the tectonics and the succession of mineralogical transformations.1. The longitudinal extension is about 200 m. The ore is mainly located in open fractures and has only diffused a few centimeters into the surrounding rock.210 L. Except for this major fault. which are lithostructural discontinuities that block. rather than glvlng a more detailed presentation of the sequence of steps. Description of the Geology The Bertholene deposit which is situated on the northern part of the metamorphic Levezou complex (Figure 1). The deposit is essentially a small. which are only visible underground. which date from the late hercyian era. The mine currently produces 70 tonnes of uranium metal per year and employs 56 people on site. opened the following year. In the upper levels there are lots of fairly . The ore was principally transported by the subvertical N 30 . 2. dislodge or cut the orebodies. fairly low grade fissural type deposit. In the second and third sections we will show how downstream geostatistics can help the mlnlng company to schedule and run its underground and openpit operations.N 40 fractures. we shall try to highlight the important points in the feasibility studies that preceded the opening of the mine. before preliminary underground work started in 1977. the tectonics of the area is dominated by two other transverse thrusts in the directions N 140 and N 160. is surrounded by orthogneiss. Its extension in the vertical direction was limited by a series of flat structures inclined at between 0 and 40 degrees. several reconnaissance campaigns have been carried out as the price of uranium fluctuated. GENERAL PRESENTATION 2. It is basically controlled by two factors. delimit the deposit along its eastern and western edges respectively. Since its discovery in 1959. These highlighted the complexity of the deposit and the difficulties of evaluating it.
./~i\'l sc. Orebody B is 150 m long and 2 to 3 m thick. The rise in the uranium prices led to the opening of preliminary mining work in the rich central part of the deposlt at level 740.lallil1e b./tenolimol.hish>sc Cevenole cry. 2.lI Ce\ley. the first insitu ore reserves were calculated using traditional methods but the geological model was poorly defined. which was then followed up by a series of underground percussion holes. orebody F is 70 m long and 10 m thick.2. Sedimet\~ory Gronir p. lower down at the 650680 level which has already been mined underground. Geological environment of the Bertholene deposit. Estimating the Insitu Reserves After some initial surface exploration work including cored drillholes in the early sixties.o\e schis'rof. there are two main orebodies (Figure 2).u~ettOlimo<eil1 crywllil'lc ~rle.CALCULA TING ORE RESERVES SUBJECf TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 211 distinct orebodies. Both dip slightly to the east. RI.e bell Figure 1.
Mineralization at the 680 level.. But it did not solve two fundamental problems: . . This gave a first estimate of the insitu reserves and made it possible to follow the vertical evolution of the grades and the metal quantities. These showed that the mineralization lies in the subvertical structures. an initial estimation was made using linear kriging of the two service variables (thickness and accumulation) on 10 x 10 x 10 m3 blocks. DE CHAMBUREET AL. a pilot openpit was opened up in 1979/80 and a second geostatistical ore reserve estimation was carried out by the BRGM (Lefeuvre et al.~ the precise location of the ore. figure 2.the relationship between the insitu reserves and the .212 L. 1980). After an additional reconnaissance campaign. which made it difficult to correlate mineralized sections in the vertical drillholes. As it was difficult to interpret the mineralization and hence quantify the reserves.
It became clear that two types of exploitation could be envisaged for this deposit: an openpit for the orebodies above the level of the valley (680 m) and an underground mine for the lower levels (Figure 3). parallel drives . As usual with uranium. in 1980 it was decided to carry out underground reconnaissance work to quantify the reserves in one level of the future underground exploi tation. Layout of drillholes. Figure 3. The Traditional Approach to Ore Reserve Estimation and Mine Planning (a) The Underground Mine Since it was difficult to draw the shape of the orebodies from the information available from the above ground drillholes..3. 2. The basic working hypothesis was to have a 30 m distance between levels.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 213 recoverable reserves (the support effect and the information effect) . .
DE CHAMBURE ET AL. to estimate the insitu reserves. and the exploitability of this level of the deposit has also been proved. This detailed reconnaissance campaign made it possible .e. particularly deep ones like Bertholene. . and some crosscuts were constructed. Between 1980 and 1981. By varying the values of the main technical and economic parameters and using linear programming techniques. the problem is to determine the overall envelope containing the final pit. In 1982 when the underground exploitation started up.214 L. the relationship between the insitu reserves and the mining reserves). We already know that geostatistics is not ideally suited to handling such complex deposits as this one where there are problems defining the edge of the deposit. The comparison between the production figures and the predictions was quite satisfactory.. 1981) . the economic feasibilty of the operation had not yet been proved. to estimate the mlnlng reserves calculated by fixing a minimal width of opening along the underground workings and also by fixing the dilution factor by experience. 2 673 m of drive were built and 22 824 m of percussion holes and 232 m of cored underground holes were drilled. The pit contour finally chosen was one that is fairly robust against variations in the parameter values particularly as far as the recovery function is concerned (i. .the tests from the mine section opened up along the drillholes as had been tried in 1981 (Labrot et al. . it was possible to choose the shape of the final pit. Consequently after a deterministic approach had been used to delimit the mineralized zone (which was possible after the underground workings had been opened up). we were then able to optimize the pit contour. two additional types of information became available: . Before starting the geostatistical study of the recoverable reserves. Today the 680/650 level has been completely mined out. From these. (b) The OpenPit Mine The problem of locating the orebodies is less acute for the open pit than for the underground mine.the results from the pilot openpit established in the upper weathered levels. to draw the orebodies and locate them in space.to choose a selective mlnlng method (cut and fill with mechanical backfilling of 3 m high slices). percussion holes were drilled in a fan shape every 20 m along the underground workings. . For openpits.
).g. From this point of view. 2. Dumay (1981). 1985). The six main steps involved are .e. 1985). Nonlinear geostatistical methods involving gaussian anamorphosis can be used to solve the first two of these problems (i. Modelling the deposit numerically made it possible to tackle complex problems like simulating the functioning of the m1n1ng machines in the pit given the technical characteristics of the machines and the exploitation method (Deraisme et al. So it is possible to produce an image of the reality. It is called conditional simulations and is designed : .. Fontainebleau). Given the variability of the mineralization (both the grade and the geometry) and of the topography.Statistical analysis (histogram) . the density of the information and the geometric constraints (Deraisme (1978). IMGM (Ecole des Mines. This use of a numerical model of the deposit will not be presented here (Deraisme et al. the slope etc. to find the global recoverable reserves).Structural analysis of the gaussian equivalents .to respect the data values at sample points. So in 1983/4 a 320 KT minipit was opened up. some studies which are normally done manually were repeated automatically (e. sequencing the mining operations is an important part of the project .. de Fouquet (1985». and thus allowed them to develop a computer package for simulating the sequence of mining operations in an openpit.4.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 215 Because of production constraints. Ales) and Total Compagnie Miniere. designing the sequence of mining operations to take account of certain constraints such as the number of benches. A method for reproducing the spatial variability of a regionalized variable was developed in the seventies. Lastly it is interesting to note that the project served as a test case for a research group composed of the CGMM (Ecole des Mines. same variogram. it was necessary to extract ore as rapidly as possible at the same time as preparing the final pit project.particularly the need to keep stripping in advance of mining. same correlations between variables) . This corresponds to phase 1 described in Section 3.Gaussian anamorphosis and the support correction . Brief Review of the Geostatistical Method Used to Obtain the Numerical Model The three technical mining parameters which have a marked influence on the recoverable reserves and which are taken into account by geostatistics are the support of the selection blocks.to reproduce the variability of the experimental data (same histogram.
Given the type of mineralization. This length was chosen as a compromise between the need to provide a detailed description of the fluctuations in the grades (i. The envelope defined in this way is included in a zone 250m x 60m x 40m deep and contains 2. loads of 2 tonnes (i. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.m.e. 3.) of material are tested. This means simulating 1 cU. Constructing the Numerical Model of Orebody B (a) Choosing the mineralized envelope. two important choices have to be made: .Backtransforming to the real scale. the mining method (cut and fill) involves two different selections. and because of the edge effect of the measuring device. STUDY OF THE UNDERGROUND RESERVES 3. Nonconditional simulation of the gaussian equivalents . After blasting.e.216 L.1.Conditioning the simulation to pass through the data . the reconnaissance was made mainly using horizontal drillholes (Figure 4). In order to avoid diluting the ore with the surrounding waste. blocks. Before any model can be established. As well as this.161 data values.Choosing the variable to model (in our case either the grades or their indicators functions) Choosing the support size for the model. about 1 cu. Since the mineralization was controlled mainly by the tectonics. The gamma logs were converted into the equivalent chemical grades using the gamma loggrade correlation for 1 m long sections. which is compatible with the 1 m length used for the gamma loggrade correlation. This depends on the quality and the density of the information available at the end of the exploration campaign and determines the further use of the model. the variability of the mineralization at short distances) and the impossibility of dividing the gamma logs into very short sections which would destroy the scatter diagram because of the disequilibrium between the gamma logs and the grades. the orebodies which constitute the deposit can be considered to be independent of one another as far as their shape and grade are concerned. .m. the boundaries of the orebody were defined by drawing a conservative outline on each of the horizontal sections (at a scale of 1:200) that were provided by the geologists every 5 m (Figure 2).
00) of r"\'e m'VlerQhzed ~ruc. (Figure 5). 1984). This technique effectively helps to reproduce the gradewaste interfaces (Isaaks. The grades are highly variable. . The histogram of the grades is typical of uranium deposits. the nonhomogeneity of the deposit (at the scale of m~n~ng method) can be taken into account by using indicator functions (which show the presence or absence of ore) rather than the grades themselves. 16% of the samples are mineralized. The coefficient of variation aim is 3. So we first simulate the spatial repartition of these phases and then the variability of the grades within these.63.h.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 217 (b) Choice of the Variables. At the geological cutoff. Orientation of the drillholes.l. Since the mineralization essentially consists of a few very rich values lying in small veins. There are lots of very low grades near the geological background value (many of which are identical). which indicates that there are a few very rich samples.. We know that this type of distribution usually has a proportional effect. (290) '268) Etz3) A"eI"Q~ Q~\e. This means assuming that the grade distribution is homogeneous within these and that the distribution of the phases is statistically stationary throughout the deposit. which was effectively the case here. SurfaCe· Holes Figure 4.e". This presupposes that the variability results from the existence of several phases.
218 L.e. the slope and the size which are shown by the anisotropies of the indicator variogram). It is below the cutoff grade that . Lastly. this overcomes the problem caused by having large numbers of very low grades at the ends of the drillholes which are due to the method used to transcribe the values . Histogram of the logs of the grades for Orebody B. 1984). D E C H A MBURE E T AL. It also makes it possible to reproduce the geometric character istics of the mineralization (i. Three variables were defined on the drillholes: I300(x) = 1 if Z(x) ~ 300 and = 0 else TMIN(x) = Z(x) if Z(x) ~ 300 TSTE(x) = Z(x) if Z(x) < 300 The Gutoff at 300 ppm was used in the geological study just for defining the wasteore limits. Figure 5 . Tests made on the variograms of the raw grade data clearly indicated that these were too chaotic to be useful for simulating the deposit (Rivoirard.
The second method is preferable when the deviations are significant. the method is justified since the indicator function is much better structured at high cutoffs than the grades are. we will only be interested in the first two variables. for both indicators and for the ore. As a check.7m. So ~(h) = 0.5m) + 0. will limit ourselves to reproducing the histogram and not the variograms. which was the case here. 1. 5m) . It also helps in under standing the vertical continuity of the mineralization. A variogram model consisting of the sum of 2 sphericals was fitted to the experi mental variograms.065 Sph (40m. The fitted variogram model was ~(h) = C x Sph (25m. 10m) The short range along the length of orebody B is not certain. and as far as the waste is concerned. 10m. The sill of the variogram was fitted to match the variance of the data used. Its highly erratic form was due to the limited number of values per angular class. The variograms can be calculated in two ways: along the drillholes (irrespective of direction) and by directional classes.6m. is more difficult to assess directly from the grade variogram than indirectly from the indicator variogram and the ore variogram. The ranges of the indicator variograms (Figure 6) in the vertical plane lie on an ellipse with its principal axis in the direction 80 E along the dip of the mineralisation. 2.2.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 219 could be used for mining. Variograms for the Indicators and for the Ore. The ore variogram was calculated from 343 mineralized data. 1982). since waste is of no economic interest. and to the effect of the destructuration at high cutoffs (Matheron.5m. 3. The histogram of ore grades is highly skew as was that for the raw grades. Tests indicated a slight proportional effect. The structure of the high grades which cause the variability. Nevertheless. because the samples are in rings about 10 or 20 m apart.07 5ph (3. the variogram models fitted to the directional variograms were then compared to those for down hole ones. The combined effect of these two factors poses important methodological problems because the influence of the the high values is preponderant in uranium and only these grades are retained. So as far as the ore is concerned. 1. The sill was found from the proportion p of mineralized ore: 0 2 = p(1p).
. perpendicular to the longitudinal extension. I . ..'.' ~"'J':""'' 110 c) Azimuth 310. . . : .. \ . ... " \' ~. ...~ o 20 20 a) Vertical direction. The slight increase in the second value is because only the data inside the conditioning zone were used.. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. Figure 6.. .. . Fitting the indicator variogram.1:" . b) Horizontal direction. . (a) For The Indicator Functions As has been indicated..163).~ I. .3. .. .' . . I .' .. f ..\~ I . a single conditioning zone was chosen to ensure that the histogram and the variogram of the conditioning data values were the same as for the data being modelled..  ." ....1\" .....~ ... · ·"" '. ./ '. f' ..159) and also by kriging (0.. Given the irregular layout of the data. 3. Construction of the Model for 1 x 1 x 1 m3 Blocks.220 L. . the value of p was calculated for the samples (0. i J \' \ ./0\'" 'i• " '"" ~~. . .. . j i · > . which leads to a slight over estimation along the edges.~ '! "!' . Inclination 160.. ... j ~... ' r:.
3x10 6 ).105 along the edges). then restrict the model to the zone actually required. is to distinguish between the edge zone and the center when backtransforming the gaussian equivalents of the proportion mineralized (i. .CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 221 When the variable to be estimated is not quite stationary (as is the case for orebody B).3 x 10 7 ) to the blocks (4. However in this case this occurred in a negligible number of blocks. This approach is classic. The gaussian equivalents obtained by ordering high grades are taken as the same as those obtained by ordering to proportion of ore. whereas the experimental variogram of the gaussian equivalents for the raw data does not.e. This means that there is a big drop in the variance going from the samples (6. one possibility is to simulate a larger zone. the change of support is lower than for the indicators (here r = 0.e.a ) G ~~2 This could provoque local inconsistencies (i. because the indicator function is not bijective. p = 0. since the ranges for the ore variograms are small compared to the size of the blocks. where G(. The block anamorphosis function is then z = (ry . An approximate solution which was adopted here. The gaussian equivalents are then given by p = 1G(a). Figure 7 shows that the two were compatible. (b) For the Ore. p = 0.) is the cumulative density function.882). the higher the proportion of ore. Clearly one must check that the experimental covariance calculated from this is compatible with the one given by the formula: 00 1\12 C(h) =[ n pn(h) 1 n! p(h) depends on the cutoff grade used to define the indicators. The discretized gaussian model was used for this modelization. The only problem was to condition the model. The coefficient of change of support was r = 0. Remark: It is intuitively clear that using the gaussian equivalents of the grades to condition the mineralized proportion presupposes that the higher the block grade.0. This approach clearly requires more computer memory and so was not used in the case.98. which is almost 1. This can be overcome by using the gaussian equivalents corresponding to the raw grade data.203 for the center. Y1 ( Y2 but P1 > P2).
222 L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
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Figure 7. Comparing the experimental variogram of the point
support gaussians with that given by the model.
The comparison between the experimental variogram for the
conditioned gaussian equivalents and the corresponding model
deduced from the covariance of the raw data is not very good.
This is because of difficulties analysing a limited number of
highly variable scattered data (Figure 8).
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,
/,
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Figure 8. Comparing the experimental variogram of the point
support gaussians with that given by the model.
Because of the lack of data in their neighbourhood, 7.2\ of the
blocks could not be kriged to condition the model of orebody.
CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 223
(c) For the Waste.
We start out from the gaussian conditional simulation of the
proportion of ore, and construct a lognormal variable with a mean
of 40 and a variance of 3 000. Any values above 300 ppm are then
set to this value.
(d) Combining these to Obtain the Grades
The final block grades are given by the formula:
Z = T(ore) x p + T(waste) x (1p)
where T(ore) and T(waste) are the ore and waste grades after
transformation back to the real scale. The results are presented
in Table 1 and on Figure 9.
TABLE 1.
Statistics of the orebody.
BLOCKS (203 900) SAMPLES (2 161)
Mineralized Grade
Grade Proportion Indicator
Mean 299 0.163 322. 0.159
Variance 0.9 10 6 0.110 1.37 10 6 0.133
Maximum 24 980 1 19 558 1
The elongated shape of the deposit and its dip are evident. The
model also reproduces the sudden variations in grades at short
distances. The limitations of the model are that the small number
of conditioning data (about 1 sample per 100 blocks), can lead to
anomalies particularly along the edges of the deposit, and
secondly the absence of information at short distances along
orebody B.
3.4. Calculating the Reserves for a Cut and Fill Method
In order to estimate the reserves that would actually be
recovered using a cut and fill method, we need the values of
certain technical parameters (Deraisme et al., 1982). These are
not always easy to quantify (e.g. the dilution factor, the gamma
loggrade correlation for loads). So these were set to apparently
realistic values and then the sensitivity of the model to
variations in these values was tested. After the study had been
completed, the production figures started to become available
from the mine. So it was possible to check the values chosen
earlier.
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CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 225
(a) Calculating the Reserves Subject to Size Constraints
The mining reserves must take account of the minimal possible
opening for the stopes and for the waste left in place. The
mining method can be described (roughly) in the following way:
 horizontal levels 3 m high are mined,
 the minimal size for the stopes and for the blocks of waste
left insitu is 1,80 m high by 2 m wide,
 1n the ore, because of the sampling method, the minimal
advance is. of 5 m, even though the length blasted each time is
only 2 m.
The first selection was made on blocks of 5m x 1m x 3m. We then
assume that knowing the radiometric values of the blastholes
would allow us to estimate the grades of the selection blocks
without error. So the model ignores the information effect
because it works with the real grades instead of just estimates
of them.
After blasting, a second selection is made on loads of 2 tonnes.
By reducing the support back to 1 cu.m. we overestimate the
effect of the support slightly. Since we have no information
about the errors made when loading the ore, we only assume that
the second selection is also error free. So we have chosen the
most favourable possible case, particularly as far as the
correlation between the gamma logs and the grades is concerned.
These hypotheses will be made more realistic later.
3.5. The Results
In order to maintain confidentiality, all the values are given
relative to a selection with no constraints, made on 1 cu.m.
blocks at a cutoff grade of 800 ppm. This selectivity which could
clearly never be attained in practice, corresponds to the total
ore insitu (Figure 10). The working hypotheses made at the
outset are:
(1) an underground cutoff of 800 ppm,
(2) a m1n1mum size for stopes of 5 m,
(3) the dilution factor and the recovery factor are taken into by
the average ore recovery (i.e. 1.0) and the metal recovery
(0.9) .
(4) the selection after blasting is made either for individual
elementary blocks or for groups of 3 vertically superposed
blocks.
The results for the 30 m slice considered are presented in
Table 2.
.~f~±tll~HL~ *... :9. .. . ... .. . ... . > r ..': .. . . . .!iIIr.. .: .. . J • rillri~~~~: : :~ri : :.. . . ::ue . . iy::a:aX ~ y : ... . ... +..... . ..... . v..: i~ :: . N N 0 . l Horizontal section of 3 rn 3 blocks... . . ~ tT1 Outlines for a cut and fill exploitation. **_ 'VV . ..: . : d+<Ii ~u~ : : ::~ : :i ~ ::: : :: : :: : ..... • _ ..tII.. . .. I I : : ... ... .... .!... .+ . . ...: i :::::~~::::: ... .. .L • • • I v.*_*JIIiuII!. ~ ~ : I :::::::: : ::::::::: ~miiir~ .. I l ' IX:::: : : :. . V .. r tJ tT1 n ::r: > 3:: to c: Figure 10. . I . . .*.::1... .. ....... ...... : : ::: i . . ....... . : . .. .. ...... .. .
Without constraints With constraints 1x1x3 1x1x1 1x1x3 1x1x1 Ore 81.26 1 .5 55.8 Material moved/ore 1. The same applies to the grades. the material moved = ore + waste. .m.4 59. either with or without constraints. About 8% of the metal is lost compared to a selection with no constraints but when the effect of the size of the support is taken into account. Comparing the reserves for a free selection with those subject to constraints. These two factors are confounded here because the first selection is made on blocks which are grouped together in the direction of continuity of the stopes. 16 1.0 Metal 72.3 66.3 66. (al Sensitivity to the Size of the Support of the First Selection Unit We shall now study the sensitivity of the first selection to the size of the support and to the geometric continuity of the stopes. The volume given is that selected after blasting.2 91. going from an initial selection on 1 x 1 x 1 m3 blocks to 5 x 1 x 3 m3 blocks leads to a serious loss of metal. We see directly from the table that even with no constraints.66 In this table. When geometric constraints are applied. the tonnage of metal recovered and also the ore tonnage decrease. We assume that the panel grades are perfectly known.3 121.4 72.m. ones. The combined effect of these two factors leads to a loss of 34% of the metal compared to the insitu reserves. We do not have detailed estimates of the grades of 1 x 1 x 1 m3 blocks.5 120. These selections have a marked influence.7 72. The second selection made above ground removes the low grade ore. blocks than for 3 cu. and so the ratio of material moved to ore is higher for 1 cu.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 227 TABLE 2. This method gives an overall impression of the information effect. in that before blasting we only have an estimate of the grade of panels whose thickness is equal to the distance between levels and whose depth is equal to the thickness of a blasting unit. The average grade and the proportion of waste moved remain roughly the same.4 Grade 89. 59 1.
54 1.3 Metal 67.228 L.49 76. moved/ore 1 . So the average grade after the second selection varies little. 33 1.56 82. changing the m1n1mum size of stopes from 3 m to 5 m leads to a clear drop in the metal recovery and also in the ore recovery. when the mining follows the continuity of the mineralization very closely.0 65. In addition to 5 m blocks. we also tested 3 m blocks and 10 m ones.00 72. Table 3 gives the recovery factors for these two block sizes and so indicates the sensitivity of the method to the size of the first selection unit.94 61.34 119.2 54. 67 1. but the average grade remains the same.2 91.85 Grade 86. the first selection is of primordial importance. to the support size.0 67. 26 1. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. If the minimum size of stopes is increased to 10 m.7 54. increasing the support size usually leads to a decrease in the metal recovery and also in the ore tonnage. The second selection becomes more important when mining follows the mineralization less closely.3 Grade 92. However when geometric constraints are imposed.3 120.6 87. In other words.94 117. TABLE 3.77 Metal 76. Sensitivity of the reserves after the first selection. We see that when there are no constraints. we see that the recovery factors still remain roughly the same. WITHOUT CONSTRAINTS WITH CONSTRAINTS 1x1x3 1x1x1 1x1x3 1x1x1 CONTINUITY 3 m Ore 88.1 122.57 63.8 71. The proportion of waste also remains about the same.0 65. However the quantity of waste to be moved increases substantially.9 Mat.2 Mat. 11 1. 74 . which shows that they are not much influenced by this. moved/Ore 1.23 1.65 CONTINUITY 10 m Ore 72.92 72.
varies considerably from stope to stope. 1 * 2 * 1 Ore 64. ore is selected for treatment by measuring the radioactivity of 2 cu. (c) Sensitivity to the Volume of the Loads We shall now study the sensitivity of the recovery to the size of the loads. The results are very sensitive to the underground cutoff which.2 Material moved/ore 1. m.00 59. It varies considerably from one stope to another because of the geometry of the mineralization. TABLE 4. In contrast to the above ground cutoff.9 Metal 66. We now assume that after blasting. The information effect will be taken into account this time by using the estimated grade of the load obtained by adding a random error to the true grade.59 44. The quantity of waste handled drops too. as has been noted.99 Grade 104. the underground cutoff is not well defined.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 229 (b) Sensitivity to the Underground Cutoff Grade We now see how sensitive the recovery is to the underground cutoff grade. TABLE 5. 1 * 1 * 3 1 * 1 11: 1 Ore 57.1 135. Table 4 shows the recovery factors for 1 x 1 x 3 m3 blocks and also for 1 x 1 x 1 m3 ones corresponding to a cutoff of 1. the distance to the haulage road etc.55 There is a clear decrease in the metal recovery and in the ore recovered. 40 . 19 1.28 Metal 60.3 Grade 102.m.000 ppm (instead of 800 ppm as was done earlier).1 Material moved/ore 1. Table 5 shows the recovery factors corres ponding to 2 cu. Sensitivity at the underground cutoff of 1 000 ppm. loads. Sensitivity of reserves to the scoop bucket size. blocks. As well as this the average grade increases.
blocks. .the model for Orebody B does not correspond exactly with zone exploited. This might indicate that a lot of dilution occurs during the blasting phase and during the loading.94. Although the second simulation was carried out on loads of a little less than 1 cU.8 94. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.2 Metal 89.m. Results of the simulation and real global production. loads. and have not been taken into account in the simulations.the dilution is difficult to evaluate.the cutoff grade varies from stope to stope.8 Grade 93. TABLE 6. the quantity moved decreases and so the ratio of material moved improves. In previous simulations. . (2) taking the same parameter values. Table 6 gives the recovery factors as percentages of the actual production figures. a minimum stope width of 3 m. We see that the metal recovery varies little but that the tonnage increases markedly. So we can obtain these coefficients using simple models as was done in case 2 shown in Table 6.6 Overall the results are quite satisfactory. which leads to a drop in the average grade. a block size of 3 cU.m. CASE 1 CASE 2 Ore 95. . but simulating the dilution to obtain an ore recovery of 0. and taking the average values for the metal recovery and the ore recovery.5 99.90) were used. Comparison with the Production Figures This is always difficult because: .5 93. . the production figures are closer to those for the simulation with 2 cU.230 L.0 and 0. .6.the shape of the stopes is not a multiple of 1 cU.the estimation errors have not been calculated experimen tally. Since the total tonnage is constant. The two simulations compared with the actual production figures were made: (1) assuming an underground cutoff of 800 ppm. the average values of these (1.98 and a metal recovery of 0. 3.m.m..
1. and also because the grades were available for 1m long sections. we chose to simulate the zone going from the level 725 m to 785 m (i.3 122. in this case 3 m or 6 m.0 70. STUDY OF THE OPENPIT RESERVES 4. Choosing the Support Size and the Zone to be Simulated Given the shape of the final pit in terms of 10 x 10 x 10 m3 blocks.1 102. LEVEL 1 2 3 4 5 METAL 28.3 77 .5 141. See Figure 11.5 20.8 4. It might also be due to the information effect or to a low grade gamma log correlation for the loads.3 96. It would have been possible to simulate 1 x 1 x 1 m3 blocks instead of 2 x 2 x 1 m3 .1 79.4 120.8 76.6 LEVEL 6 7 8 9 10 METAL 176.9 156.2 GRADE 127. (The surface zone lS poorer). they are much less satisfactory (case 2). Comparison with actual production figures.2 126. 5 to 10 mining benches) because of its spatial continuity and because the variables are stationary here. The zone used to condition the simulation is an openpit containing the final pit. The uranium grade was simulated for 2 x 2 x 1 m3 blocks. the results of the simulation are very sensitive to the minimum size of the stopes compared to the range of the structures. As was seen earlier (cf Table 7).3 35. In addition to this the small variogram range along orebody B direction is not well known.0 74.2 59.CALCULA TING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 231 leading to a less efficient selection than had been expected. e. The fluctuations of the simulation around the real value are significant. particularly along the edges of the deposit. TABLE 7. The height of 1 m was chosen because the shovels excavate a 1 m high slice. When the results are studied level by level.2 GRADE 64. The effect of the conditioning is very low because of the small number of data values available compared to the number of blocks to be modelled.5 46. level by level. This makes it possible to reconstitute benches of variables hei~ht.
. In practice the selection is made by measuring the radioactivity of truckloads. Structural Analysis The samples are the reconstituted grades corresponding to the gamma logs of 1m long drillhole sections. ~ ..". J .. This seemed fine enough for the simulation. So we find three problems: (1) There is a large proportion of zeros at the origin which are due to pockets of waste mixed in with the ore.). (The coefficient of variation o/m is above 2. Figure 11. . " . or can be reconstituted into 20 ton loads. YZ cross section of the final pit. Some zones (usually rich ones) have been preferentially sampled and some directions have been undersampled.. . (2) There are a few extremely high values which can be considered as anomalous and which have a strong influence on the experi mental variogram.750 blocks each 2 x 2 x 1 m3 . This is important if the blasthole grades are to be taken into account. I ••• 'n... . . (3) The sample points are spread irregularly throughout the zone. which are arranged into 10 x 10 x 1 m3 panels.. We shall come back to these when we consider eliminating the values. blocks. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. 4. The variogram calculation is not easy because the grade distribution is highly skew. • y • . 7 ••• 7 . 70.~. whereas the second approaches the drilling grid used for blasting. 7_.2. . Secondly these can be considered as being the equivalent of 10 ton truck loads.232 L. The first corresponds to the size of the loads. So the model contains 175.
...zS) \ ".8 0 2 ....._. Ie •• •_...m) 2] 18 R 18 R Z Cl n o METHOD 2 HOMOGENEOUS DILUTION z All values over Zs (which successively take all values of ~ data> 10 000) are transformed according to: Z ~ \ z > z' = Zs + p(z .e.. W W .m'2) ........0 Notations: 480 ~~~ trl B : proportion of removed or modified data (n/NO) '.O'i~o ..8 p2(m 2 + 02 ) R R N ... . successively modified) z Cl o :.~....8 (m .... no~oD." e....... with 25 values> ' . 1'•..... 18 mR H2.... < ..~ ... .~ dllu~IO"{r~ . " :.. trl r._..:: " ... .. Then . h Influence of transformations on the highest values of grades c: ~ . .. 2 trl L.. ..8(1 ... p) (m R zs) rc...i··· :. 4'10 trl ~(. 18 In . ~ 0'2 02 + (m2 ..ov........•.0 . re. ..• l o I . I..'.. (example: Initial population of 11014 data (ZC).. 0' 2 o ~ ~ z Variance ..5 with 0 ~ p < 1 a dilution factor............ en mR and 02R : mean and variance of removed or modified population.1 [0 2 ... n > Figure 12..0 t •..e .•~. ~:~ ... . m' m . ::l 10 000 ppm.d da~a 1 8 q Mean of the new population m'... f' = .....oi" en VJ METHOD 1 REMOVED DATA c:IJ:j " trl HI....
234 L. • 40 .g. It is also important to note the influence of these values on the dispersion variance as well as the variograms. A second possibilty is to cut these values back to an interval around the cutoff value (e.000 ppm).000 ppm to 12.000 values. This procedure is not a good one since the variogram structure is due.g.000 ppm). Figure 13. to a large extent.06 . This affected 37 out of the 25. See Figure 12. Histograms of translated logarithms: log(a + grade) (Data of ZC). . uniformly distributed from 10. The tranformation must be one to one (e. logarithmic. Weighting the histogram which also tends to diminish the influence of the high values cannot be applied directly during the structural analysis. (2) Another method for handling skew data is by transforming them. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. The histogram of the logs is shown on Figure 13. This transformation is particularly helpful for determining whether the data are anisotropic but cannot be used to determine the structure of the raw variable.05 4. The preferential sampling grid led us to weight the raw data before calculating the histogram to be used in the gaussian anamorphosis so as to avoid biasing the model used to estimate the global recoverable reserves. In this case the translated log transformation (Y = log(Z + a» was used.to . and when they are removed the variogram ranges are artificially lengthened. to the presence of these high values. In practice the extremely high values lead to instabilities and to a lack of robustness in the variogram calculations.' Later the largest 4 values were removed.). (1) Removing the values above a certain level (in this case 10. gaussian anamorphosis etc. See Figure 14 . Several techniques were used to measure the influence of these values.
I '\ .02 Sph (10..20.. which is related to the variability of the ore inside the mineralized sections.5 to 3 m.5. we first calculated the variograms down the holes for each direction class for the grades of the 1 m sections then for several other variables such as the translated logs.(h) . I . The variograms for the horizontal drillholes have a nole effect due to the presence of a succession of mineralized lenses followed by waste. \ AZ FI  I ' . The drillholes inside the first zone were grouped into 4 direction classes.5.17) + . \ i'.. See Figure 15.\ 'noY'll:ontoU)' l \ /1'\ /. The structural analysis was carried out on several groups of samples above the 715 m level. calculated for inclined slices. ' I . the ore. '/ 20 Model ". The second set clearly contains less waste than the first.3. the waste. The second set of samples (called ZC) consists of those within the zone used to condition the simulation which lies inside the first zone. However it was possible to detect a structure with a range of about 2.8 \ . . . The basic statistics for these two sets are given in Table 8.. \'/~I \_~/.03 Sph (3. However it turned out that the only really representative ones are the vertical jrillholes.. . These include a set of vertical drillholes outside the mineralization which caused the variogram sill to be lower than the variance.. the indicator functions corresponding to the cutoff grade 300 ppm. The first set (denoted by SMM) consisted of those within the zone where the reserves are to be estimated.25) Figure 14.~ . This could later lead to incorrectly choose a variogram model with zonal anisotropy.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 235 . Variogram of translated logarithm (LTEN: log (500 + grade). As for the underground study (Section 3).J.
25 2.31 :r: > cutting down over 2 000) 3:: t:O . c: :>. . 1. 21 2. N W "" TABLE 8 .62 SMM : data inside the 25 252 295.902 3.17 2. 1.55 FOD3 : data inside PHASE 3 1 669 520.62 (+ KWS: kriging weights sum) 417. for the main selections. and influence of weighting methods.86 tJ tn (+ pannel weighting) 445. 83 2.014 3.59 ZS : simulated zone 9 683 545. Elementary statistics on grades of 1 m samples. KEY Nb.82 3. 2. 1.91 2. aim I : data above 715 28 692 262.04 2. of varianc~6 variance mean m data 0 2 x 10 coeff. 1.l tn tn >l > r . 0. 1. 1.86 n (+ pannel weighting and 413.44 2.41 mineralized matrix (26x40) ZC : conditioning zone 11 014 499.62 (+ KWS) 438.23 r (+ KWS weighting) 420 . 2.
the model used for change of support is taken to be equal to this new variance (1. l xSph(7m) ..l. .lIO ~ ..J..o "~"'''''4':'..t..'"". y(h)o: 2 .8 x 106 ppm 2 ). In order to take account of the nonhomogeneity of the samples./ . A Hermite polynomial expansion containing 30 terms was used to represent the transfor mation.. . I . It is important to distinguish between the models corresponding to the first and the second zones.. . O. 5 X Sph(2. The advantage of this method is that it takes account of the structure. Variograms of the grade calculated along the drillholes.' .. . . Vertical drillholes (340) Horizontal drillholes (34) Dir. 8 x Sph( 2 . 5 ND 2129 f 0: 0: 02 0: 4 . 4.R.. 30 .. 80m) + . 11 10 5 m 253 . 91 lOG . 6 04 .80m) 10. ' I " . each was weighted py the sum of the (ordinary) kriging weights for the set of panels in its neighbourhood... y (h)o: ...5 . The sill of the variogram in . Gaussian Anamorphosis As the turning band method was going to be used for the simulation..! 10..\•. .6 . 2.00 02 0: . 8xSph(l2m) . In the second case.. N310'E Figure 15. grouped by directions (without selection zone: SMM).0 ... The means and variances obtained using this weighting method were lower than before because this downweights rich zones (Table 8).. 20.. + .CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 237 ND 0: 18022 I m 177 . Other weighting methods (such as the inverse of the number of samples in the panel) could be envisaged.3.J.. the anisotropy in the vertical direction is less significant. the data within the conditioning zone have to be transformed into their gaussian equivalents. 20 o to . . The model corresponding to this was subsequently used when calculating the variogram of the gaussian equivalents and also the variances for the various block sizes. The overall variogram model was fitted to the variograms calculated for inclined slices..
. We are interested in the distributions of these grades.4 gau (2m) + . Variogram model for the simulated variable Y : gaussian equivalent of brocks (2 x 2 x 1 m3 ). DE CHAMBURE ET AL.e (h/a)2 ) 4. ~.5.O ¥ !i Figure 16. See Figure 16. This made it possible to obtain the grade of selection blocks which are ~ultiples of this size.7.238 L.firstly. by averaging the grades within them. Using the Numerical Model (a) Study of the Overall Recoverable Reserves for Different Support Sizes The average grade of the 2 x 2 x 1 m3 blocks was simulated. for the samples of the conditioning zone.11) (gau = gaussian model: y(h) = c(1 .4. for the blocks of the simulated zone. Their .6 gau (5. v Model: y(h) = . The gaussian equivalents from the first anamorphosis function will be used in the kriging.secondly. while the second ones will be used to invert the gaussian equivalents of the blocks given by the simulation. The variogram for the gaussian equivalents for the 2 x 2 x 1 blocks was fitted by the sum of two gaussian models. We have to calculate two anamorphosis functions: .
In order to restrict the comparisons to the production figures. The curve showing the tonnage of ore recovered as a function of the cutoff grade (Figure 17) shows the similarity between the two distributions as well as the lack of sensitivity to support size.000 ppm. 4. plus those above 2.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 239 experimental histograms are presented for the interval from 0 to 4. Comparison with the Production Figures We have the production figures for part of the openpit. the steps involved were: (1) digitalize the limits of each bench. The number of loads below 150 ppm (waste) is unknown.the variance of the blocks.000 ppm. given by its anamorphosis function.000 ppm in intervals of 100 ppm. The corresponding metal quantity can be deduced from the average grade for the zone. However the curves showing the metal recovery as a function of the cutoff grade clearly show that the difference between the two models becomes significant as the support size increases. we present the figures as percentages of the total (ore or metal as the case may be) for the zone. or within a pit inside this zone.5. For each class we know the number of truckloads and hence the ore tonnage and the metal tonnage. measured as they passed under a radiometric scanner. In this case the resulting block distribution depends on: . As well as this the percentage for the first (waste) class has been set to the value 1 . (b) Comparing the Results of the Simulation with those from the Bigaussian Model The bigaussian model was used to make the change of support. or level by level. (2) build up a 20 matrix for the 2 x 2 x 1 blocks showing the pit surface (production zone).T(zc) = 35%. (3) calculate the excavation indicator function for the . which is calculated from the variogram model. and similarly for the 10 x 10 x 1 blocks. and . In order to be able to compare the gradetonnage curves with the simulation without giving the actual figures. The grade tonnage curves can then be calculated. The histogram was divided into 13 classes of unequal length from 150 ppm to 2. These can be calculated for the whole of the zone simulated. given by the curve for a 4 x 2 x 1 m3 support.the distribution of the samples in the zone. These consist of the histogram of the grades of 16 ton truckloads. The appropriateness of the bigaussian model can also be tested by comparing the grade tonnage curves obtained from the model and by grouping blocks in the simulation.
. .. . T". v 2x4x3 m3 J5 C ..240 L...__ .. Cutoff tonnage relations inside the simulated zone (ZS).. Modelled distribution by a bigaussian change of support (continuous lines) and by average of simulated blocks (dotted lines). v 4x4xl m3 I i v '" 4x4xl m3 oc t i I i f I I I t ' "' _.. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. :.. =··= · ··~:Z~.. v 2x4xl m3 . ./ocr.... ._.~ <0 0 50  50  v 4x4x3 m3 v 4x4x3 m3 Z'G Figure 17. . .
n
Q ( ..00,,_\ Figure 18. >
40.' ") t
Cutoff grade  tonnage relationship n
. . »>•• >••.
~ c
inside the exploited zone. ~
.... / 9' Dotted line: Simulation (2x2x1, 4x2x1 ::l
z
ICIO .... / '7 and 4x4x3 m3 blocks). Continuous line: Q
.... / :I" production. o
:;0
,:: ,' / tr1
.. / r :;0
tr1
/,' 'I [/)
tr1
aoo ,:/ 'I :;0
:' 1 '/
Q(T) <
:t tr1
[/)
[/)
!:'/ C
;'/1
:11 tIl
'<
tr1
100
q...,
o
...{ Q s::
r T. Z
0 ·r .1I .... ~ Z
Q
n
o
\~~\. z
~"<" ~Z
Q (z c ) ...,
[/)
~ '<~.,,'. . '.
~ :\,
T(z c ) ', ...
:Zoo
. ' .... ,
"
" ....
.... ,
' .... , 'IT"=2,,2><1.
100 ""'" 'I1"=4xZ)li.
~ ...........
[ . ........ ""'
Zc '"
;!::
o
.
6"00
~ '......s
"000
zc i_ :Zooo o '00 .....,.. "600 :ZCCo
242 L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
10 x 10 x 1 m3 panels (the value 1S set to 1 for panels to be
mined, and 0 otherwise), and then (4) retain only those samples
and simulated blocks contained in panels to be exploited.
The corresponding grade  tonnage curves for the production
(Figure 18) fit in between those for the various support sizes,
except that they are slightly worse than just for the support
effect. The equivalent mining support mentioned by Sans (1987)
applies in this case. Although the ore recovery curve T(zc} leads
to an equivalent mining support in agreement with the tonnage of
the trucks, the metal recovery Q(zc} suggests a larger equivalent
support. So there is a loss of selectivity probably due to
dilution, but might also be due to an information effect related
to the way the grades are measured (i.e. to problems with the
radioactivitygrade correlation).
4.6. Reconstructing the Mining Units
We are now interested in four recovery variables (the indicator
function, the recovery function, the average grade and the grade
recovered at a particular cutoff). To define these we consider
two support sizes corresponding to selection units v and mining
units V. The latter correspond to one of the mining activities
(e.g. the drilling grid, the blasting, or the loading). They are
multiples of the selection units.
The four variables can now be defined as a function of the cutoff
grade zc. For each selection unit v in mining unit V, we have:
Indicator Function: I (zc) 1 if Z (v) > zc
o otherwise
Recovery Function: FR (zc) proportion of selection units
above cutoff zc
Average grade: ZUP
Recovered grade: ZR (zc) = average grade of selection units
above cutoff zc
Clearly ZR (zc) > zc and ZR (zc) > ZUP. In this case these
recovery functions were calculated for m1n1ng units of
8 x 8 x 3 m3 and for a cutoff grade of 300 ppm. Three different
support sizes were considered for the selection units. They were
(1) 2 x 2 x 1 m3 , (2) 2 x 4 x 1 m3 and (3) 4 x 2 x 1 m3 . In all
three cases the cutoff grade for selection units was set at 400
ppm.
The results for the recovery functions are presented in the form
of their cumulative histogram and their scatter diagram of the
CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 243
recovery against the grades (Figure 19). To show how structured
these variables are, we have plotted them (Figure 20) and have
calculated their variograms. These clearly show that the ore
pockets are about 20 to 30 m in size.
Figure 19. Cumulative histograms of recovery functions.
4.7. Using this to Evaluate Projects
These two variables make it possible to evaluate a m1n1ng project
(whose shape is expressed in terms of a grid of mining units) by
calculating the total tonnage, ore tonnage, metal tonnage, the
average grade, the stripping ratio, etc. for each bench. In this
way we can test its sensitivity to the support size and also to
the first cutoff grade. The principal limitations to this sort of
calculations are due to the underlying hypotheses:
(1) The position of the work faces is not taken into account and
so some ore blocks lying in waste areas would in reality be
treated as waste and not as ore.
(2) There is no way of separating ores of different qualities
inside the same m1n1ng unit. These would normally be stocked
separately. They can only be treated globally.
(3) The dilution is not taken into account, except possibly via
overall empirical coefficients.
Figure 20. t
s s. i 21.1, 1 9 2,
384 . 39 4. Recovery function on 8x8x3 m3 panels
Le'3e..,~ :
V for cutoff 300 ppm and v = 2x4xl m3
/ / , RF).2
ij/,/: RF>.?"
~ : RF >' 75
l(h)
I
I
.4t ,""'4
,,,.,,,
21 2 . 212 . ,;
.. ,
~'
.,.'
.,~....,
.
.~ ... ~
.,',
/ r
tl
trl
n
::c
'2. 120,. >
So 19~ .
0' ::t; io 30 n(nV 2:
til
C
~
(a) Map of level 766769. (b) Variogram on the simulated zone
~
along x. >
r
they are not accurate enough for local short term planning . Indicator functions can be used in a two stage procedure for modelling multifissured deposits. the geometry of the orebody is modelled using indicator functions. In the first step. . A second shortcoming is that the techniques described here require the use of fairly large computers and considerable data preparation.A more accurate way of modelling the geometric details of the orebody is required. which may in the future lead to a new type of exploration procedure: drilling along the strike of the mineralization much in the same way as drives are put inside orebodies. and also for 3D spaces. In addition to statistical and geostat istical information.but then.Techniques for applying geometric constraints should be made more flexible. 5. 50 as to be able to input new production and exploration data without time consuming calculations. . the tectonics etc. a microcomputer version of the programs is required.CALCULATING ORE RESERVES SUBJECT TO MINING CONSTRAINTS 245 These restrictions are handled by programs designed to simulate the exploitation. This procedure requires a good knowledge of the mineralization. it should take acount of the geology. this was not their objective. . so as to be suitable for several different exploitation methods. then the grades are modeiled inside the orebodies. . four types of improvements are needed. So before they could be used routinely by mining companies. . CONCLUSION (a) positive results Despite the extreme variability of the mineralization. geostat istics provides satisfactory estimates of the global recoverable reserves which can be used for medium term planning of the open cast mine.In order to use these techniques on the minesite.A method for updating these mathematical models is needed. (b) Limitations and future developments Even though the predictions obtained were globally satisfactory.
Reidel Co.. 1982: La destructuration des hautes teneurs et Ie krigeage des indicatrices... 1980: Exemples d'application de la g~ostatis tique a I 'uranium. 1985: L'estimation des r~serves r~cup~r~es sur modele g~ostatistique de gisements nonhomogenes. France. 1984: Indicator Simulation: Application to the Simulation of a high grade uranium mineralization. ENSMP. 1974: Simulations conditionnelles. . France. Fontainebleau. DUMAY R. ENSMP. 26eme Congres G~ologique International. Paris. de FOUQUET Ch.R. Centre de G~ostatistique.. et al. 1981: Evaluation des r~serves minieres... et al. 1985. 1985: Vers une simulation d'exploitation a ciel ouvert. Fontainebleau. REFERENCES DERAISME J. Holland.. France. ISAAKS E. Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization. ENSMP. ENSMP. ENSMP. DERAISME J.. Doctoral thesis. Juillet 1980.246 L.C. Centre de G~ostatistique. LEFEUVRE E. APCOM 1982.. 1982: Geostatistical orebody model for computer optimization of profits from different underground mining methods. Dordrecht. Fontainebleau. Doctoral thesis. France. 1981: Simulations d'exploitations minieres sur modeles g~ostatistiques de gisement.. Dordrecht. ASI. LABROT J. BLAISE J.. Theorie et pratique. 1987: Geostatistical Case Studies. DERAISME J.. et al.. RIVOIRARD J... Industrie Minerale. Dec. 1984: Calcul de variogrammes sur des donn~es d'Uranium. Congres de Metz. Doctoral thesis. application au cas d'un gisement multifissure d'uranium Ben Lohmond (Australie). Holland. Les Techniques. ENSMP. 1978: Simulation sur modele de gisement de processus mlnlers et min~ralurgiques. Industrie Min~rale.. Fontaine bleau. JOURNEL A. Fontainebleau. France. DE CHAMBURE ET AL. France. MATHERON G. Reidel Co. Doctoral thesis.. London. Fontainebleau. FRAISSE H. SANS H. de FOUQUET Ch.
217.25.24.169. 88. 242 deposit. 239.G. 172. 180 hanging wall 78. 199. 149. ll9 kriging.176. 90. 84. 219. 88 global 218 chemically analysed grade 23. 207 gaussian equivalents 215. 198. 179. 181. 144. gaussian 187. 225.130. 228 221. 165. 207 deposit. 84. 143.23. 144. 227 bauxite 69. ll4 anamorphosis. zinc 121 interpolate 93. 187. 172. Ill.126. 113. 190 kriging.71. 190. 165 Carter's relation 188.101. 217.84. gaussian 143. 154. 136. 81. 103 drillhole 177 Laguerre polynomial 199 effect. 200. gamma 187. lSI.234. 81. crossvalidation 110. 205. 144 indicator functions 209.123. 156 characterized reserves 82. Ill. 182.94. ordinary 136. 188. 188. multigaussian M.207 kriging. 109. ll2.237. 159 247 .221.239 deposit.129. 117 133.81. 234.78.70. 227.128. 88 back estimation 50 free selection 154. 242. 125. 242. 163. 108. 90 discretized gaussian model 124.102. 152. 214. 235. 82. uranium 1. 138. 163 closure liS gold 149. 189 footwall 71. disjunctive O. 161. 137.INDEX anamorphosis 5. 88. ll3 anamorphosis. 188. !O7. III 153.221. 140.234. 190. 227.216.124. 190.K. 136. 159. 143.204.221. 70. 179. 154. 209. 188. 90 215. 204 diluting. 170. 136.222.103 destructuration 219 inverse distance weighting 81 development holes 178 isofactorial 199. 170.156.223 206 conditionally unbiased 51 gradetonnage curves 121.237 external drift 105. 158 co kriging 109 gradetonnage 84. 207. 174 215. 78. karstic 71. 178.158. generalized covariance 109. gamma 189 faults !OS. 225. 135. 205. 230. equivalent block 172. 24 global recoverable 149.238 change of support 24. 227. 200. 243 karsism 69. 242 conventional profit 174. 178. 106. 174. 156 164. 140 drift 109. 242 232 blast holes 121. 237 geometrical constraints 63. 230. 240 gamma logs 23.122. 229. 90. 243 212. 81 convex analysis 84 Hermite polynomials 123. sample 135. 163. lSI. negative binomial 187. conditional simulation 169. 223 IRFk 78 cut offs 82.88 gamma logged grade 23. 156.225. support 128 local recoverable 149. universal 102. geometric constraints 215. gas 105. porphyry copper 136. insitu reserves 69. 213. 144. 106. 143 distribution.30.231. 160. 143 downstream geostatistics 210 kriging.237 kast 78 distribution. 84. 187 information effect 157. 150.216. 181.216. 237 cut and fill 209. dilution 84. 2ll. 124. 183 gaussian anamorphosis 153. 122. !O7. 140.223. 182. 216. 160. ll2. 136. 183. 180. 154.207 kriging. 82. 190.26. 232. 88.221. Ill. 188.215. 144 distribution. 199. 138. blast 225. 24 bigaussian 239.
174. 47 tectonics 71. Ill. 167 optimal drilling 75 uniformly distributed 234 optimal grid 75. 162. 156. 112 support effect 225. 171. 170.209. 5 nonhomogeneity 217. 56. 96. 94. 101.214. 157. 219. 231 multigaussian 166 stockwork 2. 235 openpit90. 137.88.158.157.213. 78 non linear 215 translated 1. 189 Rodrigues' formula 199 logarithm. 136. 170. 98 155. 210 neighbourhood III.231. 163 veinIype 39. 234. 90 simulate 29 minimum mineable width 44 slope analyses 77 mining constraints 209 spline 39. 231 oxidized (mineralization) 151. 175.30. 172. 176. 107. 187. 169. 133 213. 135. 97.234 recoverable reserves. 243 reef 93.239 proportional effect 184. 149. uniform conditioning 143. preferential sampling 234 109. 144. 156. 64. 159 outlines 3 uranium23. 99. 223 seismic data 93. 143. 159. 179 water saturation 95 porosity 95.215.216.122 production figures 63.149. 221.51. 171. 122. 96 wells 93.90.230. 156 229. 136.154. 97. 227 nickel 39. 137.102. 174 universality 119. 95. 169.239 162. lognormal 184 radiometric 225. 171. 97. 136. 94. 217. Ill.248 INDEX logarithm 5.212.231.110.ric grade 2 radiometry 2 recoverable reserves 124. 109.106. 176. 94 regularization 173 rehabity classes 82 reservoir 105. 242.151. 112 robustness 3 . 98. 239 radiomet. 173.215. 154. 102. 112 lognormal 189. global 169 . 180. 110 missing values 43 stationarity 143 mosaic model 5. 229. 176. 94. 228.209. 133 logarithms 218. 5 permanency of distribution 149.207 stationary 207. 151. 237 translated log 6 nonhomogeneous 135. 191. 95. 40 pit 170. 166. 169 recovery function 213.209. 130. translated I. 6.211. 219 proportional effect.209.213. 106. 146. 43. 144 optimum drilling densities 53 universility condition 143. 188. 128. overestimation 128.213. 176. 40. 110.210. 103 lognormality 2. 182209. 204 recoverable reserves. 5 sampling 121. 46.107. 178.133. 191 .223.106. 84.108. 161 variogram.103. first order 2. 146 turning bands 237 nonstationary 77 underground 75. 135 selection blocks 215 mapping 93 service variables 212 mineable reserves 69. 210.107. 235 seismic 105.105.210. local 135. 112 primary (mineralization) 151.214. nonlinear 149. 169.137. 174. 152.161 zinc 121. wireline logs 93. 26.
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