Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

BUND: (127.60) Drop retesting 127.58 (see graph)

BUND FUT 6% SEP0 (127.63, 127.64, 127.58, 127.59, -0.02) 130.5
129.93
HOURLY CHARTS
130.0

129.5
129.10
129.0

128.5
128.18
128.0

127.58 127.5

127.0
127.12
126.5

126.0

125.5

125.0

124.5

124.0

123.5

123.0

122.5

122.0

121.5
121.60
121.0
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

Move back below the daily Medium Term Moving Average↓ (128.57 today) sent the contract retesting 127.58 (see
graph) and currently below daily Bollinger bottom (127.68 today): Resistance at 127.85/ .89 (breakdown daily/ daily
envelope top), with next levels at 128.01/ 128.09 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓/ breakdown hourly), ahead of
128.21/ .27 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top/ current week high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at with next levels at 128.53/ .57 (breakdown daily/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓):
tough on 1st tests.
1st Support area at 127.37 (current week low) and 127.28/ .21 (daily projection band bottom/ modified daily Alpha
Beta trend bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 127.12/ .05 (June 21 low + daily envelope bottom/ Equality C wave off 129.86): tough on
1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

127.37 (current week low) 127.85/ .89 (see above/ daily envelope top)
127.28/ .21 (see above) 128.01/ .09 (daily ST MA↓/ see above)
127.12/ .05 (June 21 low + daily envelope bottom/
128.21/ .27 (see above/ current week high)
see above)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

BOBL : (119.3800) New reaction low off high

BOBL FUT 6% SEP0 (119.380, 119.420, 119.350, 119.380, -0.020) 121.5

121.1600

120.7800 121.0

120.5

120.0

119.8300
119.6100 119.5

119.0

118.5

118.0

117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

New reaction low on move back below 119.8300 (see graph), with 38.2% of the rise from April low having
been retraced (119.2500) and testing daily Bollinger bottom (119.3850 today): 1st Support area at 119.2400
(current new reaction low off high +), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.1750 (daily projection band bottom), ahead of 119.1350/ .1200 (modified daily Al-
pha Beta trend bottom/ medium term break-up daily) and 119.0900 (daily envelope bottom): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

1st Resistance area at 119.4200 (today’s high?), with next levels at 119.5200 (reaction high hourly), ahead of
119.5800/ .5900 (daily envelope top/ reaction high hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.6500 (breakdown daily), ahead of 119.7100 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓)
and 119.7800/ .8000 (breakdown hourly/ modified daily Alpha Beta Trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

119.2400 (see above) 119.4200 (see above)

119.1750 (see above) 119.5200 (see above)

119.1350/ .1200 (see above/ medium term break-

119.5800/ .5900 (daily envelope top/ see above)
up daily)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

SCHATZE (109.0400) Has met last target off 109.3600 (108.9950)

SCHATZ 6% SEP0 (109.035, 109.050, 109.025, 109.030, +0.000)
109.80
109.7250
109.75
109.70
109.65
109.5600 109.60
109.55
109.50
109.45
109.40
109.35
109.3600 109.30
109.2700
109.25
109.20
109.15
109.10
109.1000
109.05
109.00
108.95
108.90
108.85
108.80
108.8100
108.75
108.70
108.65
108.60
108.55
108.50
108.45
108.40
108.35
108.30
108.25
108.20
108.15
108.10
108.1250 108.05
108.00
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

New reaction low on move back below 109.3600 (see graph: last target at 108.9950 has been met).
Resistance area at 109.0650 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 109.1000 (daily envelope top), ahead of
109.1250 (breakdown hourly) and 109.1800 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 109.2250/ .2350 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓/ breakdown daily): tough on 1st
attempts.

1st support area at 109.0350/ .0250 (daily Bollinger bottom/ today’s low?), with next level at 108.9900 (new reac-
tion low off high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 108.9800/ .9700 (daily projection band bottom/ modified daily Standard Error band bot-
tom) and 108.9450/ .9250 (last target of daily Triple tops off 109.3350 + daily envelope bottom/ modified daily
Alpha Beta trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

109.0350/ .0250 (daily Bollinger bottom/ see above) 109.0650 (see above)

108.9900 (see above) 109.1000 (daily envelope top)

108.9800/ .9450 (see above/ see above + daily en-

109.1250/ .1800 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)
velope bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

US T-NOTE : (122.10) 122.03 = 2nd target off 122.29+ (see graph)

10YR TNotes SEP0 (122.35937500, 122.37500000, 122.31250000, 122.32812500, -0.03125000)

124.0
123.24

123.5
123.01

123.0
122.29+

122.5

122.0

121.5
121.14+

121.0

120.5

120.0

119.5

119.09
119.0

118.26
118.5

27 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

Drop from new high puts the contract below 122.29+ (see graph: 2nd target at 122.03) and below the daily
channel bottom off low (123.04+ today).
Support at 122.08/ .06+ (reaction lows hourly/ current reaction low off high), ahead of 122.05/ .03 (daily Stop
And Reverse + daily projection band bottom/ see above + weekly envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 122.01+ (modified daily Standard error band bottom), ahead of 121.29+/. 28 (modified
daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily envelope bottom) and 121.20+ (daily Bollinger bottom): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

Resistance at 122.16/ .17+ (daily envelope top/ reaction high hourly), with next levels at 122.18+ (daily Bollinger
midline) and 122.21/ .22+ (daily Short Term Moving Average↓/ breakdown hourly + daily Medium Term Moving
Average→), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 122.27 (current week high), ahead of 123.06/ .09 (reaction highs hourly): tough on 1st
attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
122.08/ .06+ (see above/ current reaction low off
122.16/ .17+ (daily envelope top/ see above)
high)

122.05/ .03 (daily SAR + see above/ 2nd target off

122.18+ (daily Bollinger midline)
122.29+ and weekly envelope bottom)

122.21/ .22+ (daily ST MA↓/ see above)

121.29+/ .28 (see above/ daily envelope bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

UK GILT: Currently below 120.10 (see graph)

LONG GILT SEP0 (119.63, 119.65, 119.54, 119.56, -0.08)

122.0
121.73
121.51
121.5

121.0

120.5

120.10 120.0
119.60
119.5

119.0

118.5
118.50
118.0
117.95
117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

115.5

115.0

114.5

114.0

113.5

113.0

112.5
22 24 1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 J J

Drop from new high puts the contract below inverted channel off 117. 95 and 120.10 (see graph).
Support at 119.52 (current reaction low off high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.44 (Irregular C wave off 121.73), ahead of 119.08/ .06 (daily Starc bottom/ potential
of break from daily inverted channel off 117.95): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 119.76 (broken daily Bollinger bottom?), with next levels at 119.92 (breakdown hourly),
ahead of 120.19 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 120.31/ .45 (reaction high hourly/ daily Long Term Moving Average→): tough on 1st at-
tempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

119.52 (see above) 119.76 (see above)

119.44 (see above) 119.92/ 120.19 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)

119.08/ .06 (daily Starc bottom/ see above) 120.31/ .45 (see above/ daily LT MA→)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 6