Documentos de Académico
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Research Division
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS
Median Expected Price Growth in Next 12 Months (%) 3.7 3.4 3.6
*This is a diffusion index. An index greater than 50 indicates strong conditions and an index less than 50 indicates weak conditions.
**Non- primary residence use refers to the primary use of the property for either vacation or residential rental.
respondents reported 50 57
40
strong than weak
30
market conditions in May 20
2017 compared to the 10
same month last year (74 0
200801
200805
200809
200901
200905
200909
201001
201005
201009
201101
201105
201109
201201
201205
201209
201301
201305
201309
201401
201405
201409
201501
201505
201509
201601
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201609
201701
201705
for detached single-family,
55 for townhome, and 51
for condominium in May
2016).
Single-family Townhome Condominium
Compared to
conditions in the
same month last year,
buyer traffic
conditions were
stable (no change in
conditions) to very
strong in all states.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of
25.01 to 45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to
75 are labeled Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
Compared to
conditions in the same
month last year, seller
traffic conditions were
weak in 24 states,
stable in 25 states,
and strong in the
District of Columbia
and West Virginia.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of
25.01 to 45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to
75 are labeled Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
Fifty-five percent of
50
properties were on the
market for less than one 0
201105
201107
201109
201111
201201
201203
201205
201207
201209
201211
201301
201303
201305
201307
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201311
201401
201403
201405
201407
201409
201411
201501
201503
201505
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201511
201601
201603
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201611
201701
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month when sold,
compared to 49 percent
a year ago.
All Foreclosed Short sale Non-distressed
120
180
100 160
AZ 140 IL
80
120
60 CA MI
100
40 CO 80
OH
60
20
WA
40 WI
0
20
201103-201105
201107-201109
201111-201201
201203-201205
201207-201209
201211-201301
201303-201305
201307-201309
201401-201403
201405-201407
201409-201411
201501-201503
201505-201507
201509-201511
201601-201603
201605-201607
201609-201611
201701-201703
0
201103-201105
201107-201109
201111-201201
201203-201205
201207-201209
201211-201301
201303-201305
201307-201309
201401-201403
201405-201407
201409-201411
201501-201503
201505-201507
201509-201511
201601-201603
201605-201607
201609-201611
201701-201703
*To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. The selected states shown in these charts are those with
approximately 150 observations.
180 160
160 140
140 120
120 MA
FL 100
100
80 NJ
80 GA
60
60
NY
40 NC 40
20 20 PA
VA
0 0
201103-201105
201107-201109
201111-201201
201203-201205
201207-201209
201211-201301
201303-201305
201307-201309
201401-201403
201405-201407
201409-201411
201501-201503
201505-201507
201509-201511
201601-201603
201605-201607
201609-201611
201701-201703
201103-201105
201107-201109
201111-201201
201203-201205
201207-201209
201211-201301
201303-201305
201307-201309
201401-201403
201405-201407
201409-201411
201501-201503
201505-201507
201509-201511
201601-201603
201605-201607
201609-201611
201701-201703
TX
*To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. The selected states shown in these charts are those with
approximately 150 observations.
20%
0.0
201601
201602
201603
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201605
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201608
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201610
201611
201612
201701
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May 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Home Tours Led to Client Offers
1.0
0.5
0.0
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
*Regardless of acceptance
$200,000
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
May 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Buyers Offer Price Increased
demand likely 0%
9.0
7.0
8.0
6.0
7.0 CA
6.0 5.0
5.0 OR
4.0
4.0
WA 3.0
3.0
2.0 2.0 IL
AZ
1.0 MI
1.0
0.0 OH
CO
0.0
Apr2013-Jun2013
Apr2014-Jun2014
Apr2015-Jun2015
Apr2016-Jun2016
Oct2012-Dec2012
Oct2013-Dec2013
Oct2014-Dec2014
Oct2015-Dec2015
Oct2016-Dec2016
Jul2013-Sep2013
Jul2014-Sep2014
Jul2015-Sep2015
Jul2016-Sep2016
Jan2013-Mar2013
Jan2014-Mar2014
Jan2015-Mar2015
Jan2016-Mar2016
Jan2017-Mar2017
WI
Oct2012-Dec2012
Apr2013-Jun2013
Oct2013-Dec2013
Apr2014-Jun2014
Oct2014-Dec2014
Apr2015-Jun2015
Oct2015-Dec2015
Apr2016-Jun2016
Oct2016-Dec2016
Jan2013-Mar2013
Jul2013-Sep2013
Jan2014-Mar2014
Jul2014-Sep2014
Jan2015-Mar2015
Jul2015-Sep2015
Jan2016-Mar2016
Jul2016-Sep2016
Jan2017-Mar2017
*To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. The selected states shown in these charts are those with
approximately 150 observations.
8.0 5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
5.0 3.0
4.0 FL
2.0
3.0 GA
MA
2.0 NC
1.0 NJ
1.0 SC
NY
0.0 TN 0.0
PA
Oct2012-Dec2012
Apr2013-Jun2013
Oct2013-Dec2013
Apr2014-Jun2014
Oct2014-Dec2014
Apr2015-Jun2015
Oct2015-Dec2015
Apr2016-Jun2016
Oct2016-Dec2016
Oct2012-Dec2012
Apr2013-Jun2013
Oct2013-Dec2013
Apr2014-Jun2014
Oct2014-Dec2014
Apr2015-Jun2015
Oct2015-Dec2015
Apr2016-Jun2016
Oct2016-Dec2016
Jan2013-Mar2013
Jul2013-Sep2013
Jan2014-Mar2014
Jul2014-Sep2014
Jan2015-Mar2015
Jul2015-Sep2015
Jan2016-Mar2016
Jul2016-Sep2016
Jan2017-Mar2017
Jan2013-Mar2013
Jul2013-Sep2013
Jan2014-Mar2014
Jul2014-Sep2014
Jan2015-Mar2015
Jul2015-Sep2015
Jan2016-Mar2016
Jul2016-Sep2016
Jan2017-Mar2017
VA
TX
*To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. The selected states shown in these charts are those with
approximately 150 observations.
condominium properties 80 76
70
were above 50, indicating 60 62
more respondents 50
58
expected conditions to 40
strengthen rather than 30
Compared to current
conditions, REALTOR
respondents expected
the outlook over the
next six months for
detached single-family
properties to be
stable to very
strong in all states
and the District of
Columbia.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of
25.01 to 45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to
75 are labeled Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of 25.01 to 45 are
labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to 75 are labeled Strong, and values
greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
*For graphical purposes, index values less than or equal to 25 are labeled Very Weak, values of 25.01
to 45 are labeled Weak, values of 45.01 to 55 are labeled Stable, values of 55.01 to 75 are
labeled Strong, and values greater than 75 are labeled Very Strong.
first-time buyers.
0%
200810
200901
200904
200907
200910
201001
201004
201007
201010
201101
201104
201107
201110
201201
201204
201207
201210
201301
201304
201307
201310
201401
201404
201407
201410
201501
201504
201507
201510
201601
201604
201607
201610
201701
201704
NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 35 percent were first-time home buyers, up
from 32 percent in 2015. The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases
for investment purposes and vacation/second homes.
to 51 percent for
60%
buyers aged 35 to 55, 52%
51%
up from 47 percent last 50%
month. 40%
26%
Home sales decreased 30% 29%
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
1
9
percent in July 2013
when the RCI Survey
first asked the
question.*
Age 34 and under Age 35 to 55 Age 56 and over
*NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 28 percent were 18-34 years old.
The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases for investment
purposes and vacation/second homes.
lived in a property 0%
5% 5%
they owned
201510
201511
201512
201601
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201604
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201610
201611
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accounted for a
smaller share at 41
percent. Rented an apartment or house Lived in a property that they owned
NARs 2016 Profile of Home Buyer and Sellers (HBS) reports that among primary residence home buyers, 41 percent rented an apartment or house prior to
their home purchase. The HBS surveys primary residence home buyers, while the monthly RCI Survey surveys REALTORS and captures purchases for investment
purposes and vacation/second homes.
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
*Non-primary residence sales refer to vacation or residential rental use. Respondents are asked to identify the primary use of the property: primary
residence, vacation home, investment as a residential rental unit.
to 2009-2014 levels.
5%
0%
200810
200901
200904
200907
200910
201001
201004
201007
201010
201101
201104
201107
201110
201201
201204
201207
201210
201301
201304
201307
201310
201401
201404
201407
201410
201501
201504
201507
201510
201601
201604
201607
201610
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201704
May 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Investors Topped List of Cash Buyers
30%
20%
10%
10% 5%
0%
Investor Distressed Sale Second Home International Relocation First-time Buyer
*The RCI survey captures only non-U.S. citizens whose permanent residence is in another country (Type A). NAR has a
separate survey on foreign buyers that captures both Type A buyers and non-U.S. citizens who reside in the United States
on work, student, or other types of visas (Type B).
Percent of Non-Cash Buyers Who Put Down Less Than 20 Percent for
Among first-time Downpayment
homebuyers who 85%
Seller's Age
Sellers 65 years old 35%
17%
15% 17%
10% 10%
5%
0%
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
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201610
201611
201612
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201705
Age 34 and under Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 55 Age 56 to 64 Age 65 and over
20%
10%
0%
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
201703
201704
201705
Primary Vacation Investment Property, Primarily to Rent Other* Dont Know*
20%
Between Listing and Contract
Acceptance
10% 18% 20%
1.4
1.2
1.0
201510
201511
201512
201601
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201603
201604
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201610
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May 2017 REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX SURVEY
Sellers Offered Few Incentives
Type of Seller Incentive Offered for Sales that Closed in May 2017
Twenty percent of
sellers reported
90.0%
offering incentives. 80.6%
80.0%
Warranty and
70.0%
assistance with closing
60.0%
costs were the most
common incentives 50.0%
30.0%
20.0%
8.3% 8.1%
10.0%
2.9% 2.1%
0.4% 0.2%
0.0%
No incentive Closing Cost Condo Fees Warranty Remodelling Appliances Other
40
38
37
36
35
34
32
30
201507
201508
201509
201510
201511
201512
201601
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201610
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201705
Average Median
Contract Settlement
Seventy-six percent 100% 2%
of contracts were 90%
22%
settled on time, 22 80%
percent had a delayed 70%
20%
10%
0%
delays. 20%
19%
15% 12%
9% 8%
10% 7%
5% 3%
1%
0%
0%
5%
0%
REALTOR respondents
identified low
inventory , multiple
offer, shortage, and
mortgage issues,
indicating that tight
inventory and finance
were major issues
affecting homebuying and
selling.
For questions on this report or to purchase the RCI series, please email:
dhale@realtors.org
Research Division
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS