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insights
22 September 2015
This is the first report in Westpacs new series of regular reports struggling, as quarries tend to be located close to where their
on specific sectors in the New Zealand economy. The purpose products are used due to high transport costs.
of these reports is to summarise the recent performance of
these sectors, and to consider risks and opportunities and the Outlook and what this means for
resultant outlook for them. As well as providing key numbers on
each sector, these reports will include insights gathered through
NewZealand
interviews with leading industry players. This ensures a match The fall in O&G prices has made it an attractive alternative to
between the numbers and the reality of real-world operations. coal as a fuel option. This leaves coal ($309 million in valued
added to New Zealand GDP in 2014) at the bottom of the
mineral commodities heap from a New Zealand perspective.
Why Oil, Gas and Mining? Prices are expected to remain depressed long-term, creating
The Oil, Gas and Mining sector generated around 0.9% of a real risk of further cost-cutting across New Zealands
NewZealand GDP in 2014, or $2.0 billion, and employed just coal producers, most notably on the West Coast and in the
under 7,000 full-time equivalent workers (FTEs). While the Waikato. This may well affect more jobs.
sectors share of employment and GDP is relatively small, it
Oil prices ($898 million in value added) are expected to
is capital intensive, with high production per worker, a large
recover slightly, as some high-cost producers are removed
contribution to national gross fixed capital formation, a major role
from the market internationally, reducing supply. Nevertheless,
in exports, and in most cases, disproportionate concentrations of
prices are expected to remain in the low US$60s for the next
activity and employment in particular parts of New Zealand.
18months. This will continue to discourage new exploration
Given these characteristics, changes in the sectors fortunes activity in Taranaki, Gisborne, the Great South Basin and
have wide-ranging implications. These include impacts on the elsewhere, affecting exploration and support service jobs.
trade balance, investors in these capital intensive businesses, O&Gis New Zealands largest mineral export, which also
and the economic outlook of certain parts of the country implies significantly lower national export values.
where the sector is a major employer.
The Quarrying and construction materials mining sub-sector
($334 million in value added in 2014) is expected to see more
Recent performance of the sector consolidation of business ownership and mothballing over the
The Oil, Gas and Mining sector broadly enjoyed a strong period next couple ofyears. This is the result of shrinking margins
of growth between 2000 and 2012, but has since struggled and the need for quarries to be located near where work
with falling commodity prices. Employment grew rapidly during requiring their outputs occurs.
the boom years, up more than 4% a year, even through the Gold ($309 million in value added) is the bright spot in the
uncertain years of the Global Financial Crisis. Indeed, gold, as sector. A worse than expected global picture would drive
safe haven, benefitted strongly from that uncertainty. investors back to this safe haven, while better than expected
But a slowing Chinese economy, and a structural change in oil global conditions would lead to even higher growth in retail
and gas exploration and extraction (O&G) technologies in the demand from BRIC countries. Tighter supply and the challenge
United States, have led to plummeting coal and O&G prices. of doing business in emerging gold producing countries is
Goldprices have also dropped, but not to nearly the same extent. likely to keep prices well above US$1,000 per ounce. While
employment is unlikely to rise sharply, the economies of
Quarrying and construction materials mining, largely engaged Waitaki and Hauraki in particular should be shielded from the
in construction of roads, footpaths, driveways and the like, large employment declines other sub-sectors have seen and
saw little of the boom other mineral sub-sectors enjoyed. may continue to see.
Booms in construction in Canterbury, and now Auckland,
are boosting the sector in those regions. But elsewhere, David Norman
road maintenance has been deferred and the sub-sector is Industry Economist
Oil, Gas and Mining is a small employer, but highly Quarrying and construction materials mining
capital intensive, meaning production per worker Oil and gas exploration and extraction (O&G)
and capital requirements are high. Other mineral, metal and support services, which includes
all other mining activities as well as support services for the
The sector saw strong growth between 2000
other four sub-sectors.
and 2012, but that has been partially reversed as
commodity prices have tumbled. New Zealands own Oil and gas exploration and extraction
activities generated nearly $900 million in value in 2014, while
In particular, jobs in O&G, Coal mining, Mining other mining activities including gold, coal, and quarrying and
support services (much of which services O&G) construction materials accounted for smaller shares. A large
and to some extent Quarrying and construction proportion of the Other mineral, metal and support services
materials mining are at risk, as are export earnings. sub-sector services oil and gas.
Oil, Gas and Mining in the New Zealand economy Oil, Gas and Mining sub-sectors
Oil, gas and mining value added, 2014$m Oil, gas and mining value added, 2014$m
$2,044
$309
Coal
Gold
Oil, gas and mining
$898 $309 Quarrying and construction
Other industries
$2,044 materials mining
Other mineral, metal and
support
Oil and gas exploration and
extraction
$333
$227,991 $196
1 We define Oil, Gas and Mining using Statistics New Zealand classification codes. We include all of Division B, which is Oil, Gas and Mining exploration and extraction.
2 New Zealand GDP and the constituent value added by specific sectors or sub-sectors consist predominantly of pre-tax profits (economic profits) and salaries and wages.
3 FTEs count all full-time workers as one worker, and part-time workers as half an FTE.
4 This detailed employment data is only available to March 2014, and does not capture any job changes as a result of the sharp fall in oil prices in the last 12 months.
Sharp declines in commodity prices especially priced cheaply for some years, so this is more bad news for
since 2012 have caused some pain in Oil, Gas that sub-sector.
andMining. Persistently low coal prices have already had an impact in
NewZealand, with more than a hundred layoffs at Solid
Coal and O&G in particular are dealing with Energy, our major coal producer, in 2015. This followed 180
structurally lower prices over the long-term, which a year earlier. Industry commentators argue that until a
will drive high-cost producers out of business or sufficient number of the highest cost producers are driven
force them to dramatically reduce costs. out of business, global prices will remain subdued, making
profitability a real challenge for remaining players.
Assets previously highly valued have proven or may
prove worthless as commodity prices fall below the There is no reason to expect oil and coal prices to rebound
cost to produce, leading to potential job losses and to where they were in the heady years of the end of the
lastdecade.
other real economic costs.
Key commodity price changes
The structural change in coal and O&G prices
implies that investors in the sector are likely to be Commodity prices, US dollars
cautious about investment. Divestment may occur 2000 Index Jul 2008 = 1000 Index Jul 2008 = 1000 2000
Over the last year, the United States has become the
worlds largest oil producer. Through adopting new and 500 500
The question that springs from concerns over lower Of these three risks, we believe technology changes are the
commodity prices is whether previously valuable reserves will greatest risk, and indeed we have seen significant changes
be rendered worthless as the revenue per unit of extraction in this space already. Structural changes in the O&G sub-
falls below the unit cost of extraction, and stays that way. sector due to new technologies being employed, particularly
in the United States, have already occurred. High cost
For instance, falling prices and tougher regulations in the
producers are at great risk of failure, and O&G assets where
United States have led to more than 260 coal mines closing
extraction is more challenging, or where controversial
there between 2011 and 2013, as continued production
techniques cannot be used for regulatory reasons, have
does not make sense given the price of coal and the cost of
become far less valuable.
extracting it. Effectively, this means coal reserves previously
valued at possibly tens or hundreds of millions of dollars have Demand changes of some sort will almost certainly occur at
been stranded and written off balance sheets as businesses a global level over time, but these changes tend to be slower,
have determined that there is little likelihood of those reserves and therefore provide more advance warning to investors as
ever being tapped given coal prices and extraction costs. the value of the asset falls in line with shrinking margins.
These risks are real for New Zealand businesses as well, but we Regulatory changes are the least likely of the three changes
argue they are far more relevant for coal and O&G than for gold. to dramatically affect New Zealand producers. As we have
already pointed out, the proposed new emissions targets
There are at least three reasons why assets could become
set by the New Zealand government are not particularly
stranded although ultimately they are all about the same
ambitious. However, many industry sources we spoke
fundamental point of revenues falling below costs:
to mentioned that other compliance costs are rising.
Regulatory changes: Much tougher climate change Nevertheless, these changes are incremental, and thus
regulation, or other environmental or health and safety like demand changes, are likely to provide greater advance
regulation, can make exploiting a particular resource, or warning of pressures on production costs.
even being in a certain industry, untenable, through a rise in
That said, sudden regulatory changes such as the recent coal
production costs.
testing regime implemented by China can effectively turn the
Demand changes: Changes in world demand for certain tap to exports on or off, and can come with little warning. It
commodities, such as a move away from heavy industry and is therefore possible that regulation by importers, rather than
to consumption-led growth in China, can dramatically lower New Zealand-led climate change rules, may lead to a sudden
prices for certain commodities on a long-term basis. change in prices and therefore viability of specific operations.
Where inputs come from Oil and gas extraction Where outputs go Oil and gas extraction
Where inputs come from and outputs go Changes in the role of exports in O&G
National input-output tables allow us to examine which Annual average oil and gas exports and share of production exported
industries are major suppliers to an industry of interest, and 25 barrels (m) % 100
where the outputs of the industry of interest go. So, for instance,
we can examine which industries supply the inputs that make 20 90
the O&G sub-sector work. We can also analyse what form the
15 80
outputs of the O&G sub-sector take, whether as product feeding
into another industry, or capital formation, for instance.
10 70
The O&G sub-sector draws on a number of specialist skills to
deliver its outputs. These include scientific and engineering 5 60
After a strong period of growth between The number of businesses in coal mining has barely changed
2006 and 2012, Coal mining is experiencing a over the 14 years, indicating that average businesses size
severedownturn. has risen sharply. Even with the steep decline in employment
since 2012, overall business size in employment terms is all
Falling demand from China, a major purchaser, but double what it was in 2000. Yet GDP, or value added per
and an accompanying price slump are already business, has not grown as fast. This indicates that production
hurting employment in New Zealand. per worker has fallen over the 14 years.
Where inputs come from Coal mining Where outputs go Coal mining
Changing output, changing prices This means that slower production has not necessarily been
the result of falling overseas demand. Much of the decline has
Over the last 15 years, coal production has grown sharply
been in demand from New Zealand consumers.
before falling away again although output is approximately
25% higher than it was in 2000. Output has varied between Coal prices have been particularly volatile in US dollar terms.
3.38 million tonnes a year and 5.95 million tonnes a year over From a low of just $24.50 a tonne in September 2002, prices
this period, peaking in March 2007. Between March 2008 and rose to $193 by July 2008, an increase of 690%. Changes in
March 2013 output was roughly stable at around 4.8 million the relative strength of the New Zealand dollar limited the
tonnes, but in recent times production has fallen to below surge to 490% between May 2003 and July 2008 in domestic
4.0million tonnes a year. terms. As with O&G, fluctuations in the New Zealand dollar have
cushioned the volatility in coal prices expressed in USdollars.
These changes in production have not been purely export-
driven. There has been far less variation in the proportion of However the currency has been less of a buffer on the
coal produced that is exported than in total production itself. downside.
Changes in Coal mining production Changes in the role of exports in Coal mining
Annual average coal production Annual average coal exports and share of production
7 tonnes (m) tonnes (m) 7 3.5 tonnes (m) % 56
6 6 3.0 48
5 5 2.5 40
4 4 2.0 32
3 3 1.5 24
2 2 1.0 16
1 1 0.5 8
Gold prices have come off all-time highs as the risen somewhat over this time although this growth has been at
global economy has improved, but downward the smaller end of the business spectrum. Most of these new
pressure has not been nearly as heavy as for O&G businesses are likely to be providing support to the gold mining
and coal. industry rather than directly mining themselves.
Unfortunately this data only goes as far as 2014. We suspect
Growth in retail demand from BRIC countries and that 2015 data will show a further fall in employment, as gold
falling global supply have underpinned stability in prices have continued to come off their highs of well over
the sub-sector. $2,000 seen in 2012. We nevertheless do not expect the falls
to be as sharp as for coal.
Deteriorating global conditions are likely to drive
investors back to the safe haven of gold, which may
push prices up again even if retail demand slows. yet prices are far from melting
Gold export values tripled between 2000 and 2009, in large
This bodes well for New Zealands gold producers, part the result of price surges. By the June 2009 year, annual
primarily in Waitaki and Hauraki, where Gold exports totalled $622 million.
mining accounts for significant shares of local In 2007, gold exports were at a low point in dollar and volume
value added and employment. terms. Then the Global Financial Crisis sent investors in
search of safe havens. Export volumes grew an estimated 55%
The up cannot last forever in two years, while export receipts grew 148%.
Employment and GDP growth in the industry have risen rapidly Gold mining exports
over the last decade.
Annual average gold exports
Fortunes of the Gold mining sub-sector 700 $m troy ounces (000) 490
600 420
Gold mining employment, value added and business numbers
4200 Index Mar 2000 = 1000 Index Mar 2000 = 1000 4200 500 350
400 280
3500 3500
300 210
2800 2800
200 140
2100 2100
100 70
1400 1400 Gold export values Gold export volumes
0 0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
700 700 Source: Westpac, Statistics New Zealand
1,700 1,700
As with coal, the South Island plays a key role in gold mining.
Three districts dominate production Waitaki, Hauraki and
Buller with smaller portions produced in Westland and Grey 1,400 1,400
Districts. The two main producers are OceanaGold and Waihi
Gold. More than 90% of gold mining activity occurs in just
1,100 1,100
these five districts.
One in 26 FTEs in Waitaki and one in 36 FTEs in Hauraki USD NZD
800 800
are directly employed in Gold mining, making gold a major 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Westpac
employer in these two relatively small economies. In value
added terms, Gold mining is even more important, directly
generating around 8% and 9% of value across Waitaki and Prices are expected to bottom out well above US$1,000, and
Hauraki respectively. to remain in the US$1,100 to US$1,200 band over the next
18 months. We would suggest that if the global economy
slows down more than expected, there is additional upside
potential for gold prices, as the downturn in retail demand
would be more than offset by investor demand. A subdued
NZ dollar will likely see prices hold up particularly strongly.
report reviews.
Production is therefore spread across the country, although
Fortunes of Quarrying and construction materials
Auckland stands out as a lot of building activity is occurring
Quarrying and construction materials there. The Other category is nearly two-thirds of production,
Employment, value added and business growth
indicating that unlike the other sub-sectors this report
1400 Index Mar 2000 = 1000 Index Mar 2000 = 1000 1400
discusses, activity is not limited to a few major facilities, or
particular parts of the country.
1100 1100