Documentos de Académico
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Documentos de Cultura
H=Head, T=Tail
H H HH
T HT
T H TH
T TT
Probability
Sample Space S
Event A
Examples:
Experiment S Event
Tossing a coin {H, T} Head is obtained = {H}
Rolling a die {1,2,3,4,5,6} Number of dots is even
={2,4,6}
Rolling a coin {HH, HT, The same outcome in both
twice TH, TT} tosses ={HH, TT}
2
Conclusion: If S consists of n equally likely outcomes, an
event A consists of k outcomes in, then
k
P( A)
n
Example 2: Two fair dice are thrown, one red and one
blue. What is the probability that the red die has a score
that is strictly greater than the score on the blue die?
Solution:
Solution:
3
2.2 Algebra of Events
Venn Diagrams
S = the interior of a rectangle, outcomes in S are points
in the rectangle, events are regions inside the rectangle
A
A (complement of A) A does not occur (all outcomes
in S that are not in A)
A
A
A B
4
A B - intersection of A and B (all outcomes that are in
both A and B)
A B
A B
5
Probability Rules
S
A
A B
6
Interpretation (Table of probabilities):
B B
A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)
A P(A B) P(A B) P(A)
P(B) P(B) 1
Solution:
7
Find the probabilities that a randomly selected graduate is a
working person, a male, a working male. What is the
probability that a randomly selected person is a male or
working?
Solution:
Example 6:
Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed
for scratch and shock resistance. The results from 100 disks
are summarized below:
shock resistance
high low
scratch high 70 9
resistance low 16 5
8
scratch resistance. If a disk is selected at random, determine
the following probabilities:
Solution:
9
P(B|A) - the probability of an event B given that the event
A has occurred
B A
P( A B)
P( B | A)
P( A)
Solution:
10
Conclusion: (Multiplication Rule)
event
A P(B|A) B
P(A) AB
11
Sampling Without and With Replacement
12
2.4 Independence
Solution:
13
Example 13: The following circuit operates if and only if
there is a path of functional devices from left to right.
Assume that devices fail independently and that the
probability that each device functions is shown on the
graph below.
0.90
0.90
0.90
Solution:
14
2.5 Counting Techniques
Solution:
Tree Diagram:
1 1 1
2 2 2
.
.
n2 nk
n1
step 1 step 2 step k
15
Example 15: A test consists of 15 questions. Ten are true-
false questions, and five are multiple-choice questions that
have four choices each. A student must select an answer for
each question. In how many ways can this be done?
Solution:
Solution:
16
Factorials
Also 0! is defined as 1.
Permutations
Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1)
o1 o2 o3
o2 o3 o4
on on
on
17
Remark: It is easy to verify that
n!
Pkn n (n 1) (n 2)...(n k 1) .
(n k )!
Solution:
Combinations
n n!
Ckn
k (n k )!k !
18
Example 18: Five pairs of socks (each pair has a different
colour) are to be placed in 10 drawers (at most one pair in
each drawer). In how many ways can this be done?
Solution:
19