MIN.

CUADRADOS POR AJUSTE LINEAL

N Dato ao poblacion
1 1950 31077 500000
2 1960 64934 450000
3 1970 115423 400000
4 1980 175425 350000
5 1990 259979 300000
6 1995 315289 250000
7 2000 370730 200000
8 2005 413481 150000
9 2010 466814 100000
50000
0
1940 1950 1960

NOTA:ya que los datos de los censos tienden a una recta se

No Datos ao (t) Poblacion (p) t^2 t*P

1 1950 31077 3802500 60600150
2 1960 64934 3841600 127270640
3 1970 115423 3880900 227383310
4 1980 175425 3920400 347341500
5 1990 259979 3960100 517358210
6 1995 315289 3980025 629001555
7 2000 370730 4000000 741460000
8 2005 413481 4020025 829029405
9 2010 466814
r=( __ _
4040100 938296140

9 17860 2213152 35445650 4.42E+009

_ _ _
N _
_ ^2

a -14535727
b 7448.751
r 0.9854818 SI r tiende a 1 el error es minimo

OPERANDO= =+ 700000
Aos de Poblacin
Ao(t)
proyeccin futura 600000
2011 1 443711.49984
2012 2 451160.25088 500000 CENSO
2013 3 458609.00192
2014 4 466057.75296 400000
2015 5 473506.504
300000

200000
 500000

400000

2016 6 480955.25504 300000

2017 7 488404.00608
2018 8 495852.75712 200000
2019 9 503301.50816
2020 10 510750.2592 100000
2021 11 518199.01024
2022 12 525647.76128 0
2023 13 533096.51232 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

2024 14 540545.26336
2025 15 547994.0144
2026 16 555442.76544
2027 17 562891.51648
2028 18 570340.26752
2029 19 577789.01856
2030 20 585237.7696
2031 21 592686.52064
2032 22 600135.27168
2033 23 607584.02272
2034 24 615032.77376
2035 25 622481.5248
 CENSO
00000
50000
00000
50000
00000
50000
00000
50000
00000
50000
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

sos tienden a una recta se Utilizara el metodo lineal

P^2 AJUSTE LINEAL

965779929
4216424356
=+
13322468929
30773930625
67589080441 =(b=(
_ _
)/ _ _ )/( _^2 (
__
99407153521
1.3744E+011
1.7097E+011
_ _ )/([ _^2 (_ ) ^2 ][ _ ^2
2.1792E+011

7.426E+011

_^2

AJUSTE LINEAL
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
)/( _^2 (_ ) ^2 )

][ _ ^2 (_ )^2 ] )
Minimos cuadrados por ajuste no lineal

No dato ao poblacion
1 1950 31077
500000
2 1960 64934
3 1970 115423 400000
4 1980 175425
300000
5 1990 259979
6 1995 315289 POBLACIN
200000
7 2000 370730
8 2005 413481 100000 64934
31077
9 2010 466814
0
1940 1950 1960

NOTA:ya que los datos de los censos tien

N dato Ao (t) Poblacion(P) t^2 ln(P)

1 1950 31077 3802500 10.3442233
2 1960 64934 3841600 11.0811266
3 1970 115423 3880900 11.6563589
4 1980 175425 3920400 12.0749669
5 1990 259979 3960100 12.4683561
6 1995 315289 3980025 12.661245
7 2000 370730 4000000 12.8232293
8 2005 413481 4020025 12.9323668
9 2010 466814 4040100 13.0536862

r=( _ ln _

9 17860 2213152 35445650 109.095559
_ _ ln (
N ^2 _)
_

a= 2.44E-033
b= 0.04395
r= 0.98662 Cmo "r" tiende a 1 podemos concnluir que los datos con
OPERANDO= =^
Aos de Poblacin
Ao
proyeccin futura
2010 - 565179.52
2011 1 590573.171 AJUSTE EXPON
1800000
1600000
1400000
 AJUSTE EXPON
2012 2 617107.765
1800000
2013 3 644834.565
1600000
2014 4 673807.136
1400000
2015 5 704081.452
1200000
2016 6 735716
1000000
2017 7 768771.896 CENSO
POBLACIN 800000
2018 8 803313.001
600000
2019 9 839406.047
400000
2020 10 877120.761
200000
2021 11 916530.007
2022 12 957709.919 0
1940 1950 1960 1970
2023 13 1000740.06
2024 14 1045703.55
2025 15 1092687.26
2026 16 1141781.96
2027 17 1193082.49
2028 18 1246687.97
2029 19 1302701.96
2030 20 1361232.67
2031 21 1422393.18
2032 22 1486301.65
2033 23 1553081.54
2034 24 1622861.86
2035 25 1695777.44
 ALUMNO :
Grafica PROFESOR:
466814 GRUPO:
00000
413481
00000 370730
315289
00000 259979

175425
00000
115423
00000 64934
31077

0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

AOS

datos de los censos tienden a una curva se obtiene por metodo exponencial y/o logaritmica

t*ln(P) ln(P)^2 AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL

20171.2353857 107.0029551574
21719.0082309 122.7913677981 =^
22963.0270723 135.8707032708
23908.4344226 ln
=^((b=
145.804825156 (
_ ln__
_ )/) _ ln
24812.0287136 155.4599047717
25259.1836902 160.3071238742
25646.4586277 164.4352100353
Coeficiente de correlacin
25929.3955206 167.2461121665
26237.9092025 170.3987226347

_ ln _ _ ln _ )/([ _^2 (_ ) ^2

216646.680866 1329.3169248647
_ln ln (
(_) _) ^2

ncnluir que los datos contienen un minimo error

AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL VS CENSO

 AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL VS CENSO

AJUSTE EXPONENCIAL

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AOS
 VAZQUEZ PEREZ CARLOS ANTONIO
TOYKY LOPEZ GERARDO
2651 SEMESTRE: 2017-2

EXPONENCIAL

_ ln _ )/( _^2 (_ ) ^2 )

te de correlacin

(_ ) ^2 ][ ln _ ^2 (ln _) ^2 ] )
_) ^2 ] )
 ARITMETICO
N Dato ao (t) poblacion (Y)
1 1950 31077
2 1960 64934
3 1970 115423
4 1980 175425 t1 2005
5 1990 259979 t2 2010
6 1995 315289
7 2000 370730
8 2005 413481
9 2010 466814

INTERCENSALES POSTECENSAL 800000

tm Ym TM YM
700000
2011 477480.6 2020 573480
2012 488147.2 2030 680146 600000
2013 498813.8
2014 509480.4 500000
2015 520147 CENSO
400000
2016 530813.6
2017 541480.2 300000
2018 552146.8
200000
2019 562813.4
100000
2021 584146.6
0
2022 594813.2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
2023 605479.8
2024 616146.4
2025 626813
2026 637479.6
2027 648146.2
2028 658812.8
2029 669479.4

2031 690812.6
2032 701479.2
2033 712145.8
2034 722812.4
2035 733479
 FORMULAS DEL METODO
- Metodo intercensal

413481 y1
466814 y2 - Metodo postcensal

0
METODO POSTCENSAL
0

0 CENSO

0
METODO INTERSCENSAL
0

0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
 GEOMETRICO
N Dato ao (t) poblacion (Y)
1 1950 31077
2 1960 64934
3 1970 115423
4 1980 175425
5 1990 259979 t1 2005 413481
6 1995 315289 t2 2010 466814
7 2000 370730
8 2005 413481
9 2010 466814

INTERCENSALES POSTECENSAL 900000

tm Ym TM YM
800000
2011 478279.245 2020 595004.8435 METODO
2012 490026.084 2030 758397.9138 700000 POSTCENS
2013 502061.433
600000
2014 514392.377
2015 527026.177 500000

2016 539970.271 400000

2017 553232.28 CENS
300000 O
2018 566820.012
2019 580741.468 200000

100000
2021 609618.536
0
2022 624591.151 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
2023 639931.502
2024 655648.622
2025 671751.764
2026 688250.409
2027 705154.272
2028 722473.304
2029 740217.702

2031 777024.643
2032 796108.857
2033 815661.79
2034 835694.957
2035 856220.15
 FORMULAS DEL METODO
- Metodo intercensal

y1 - Metodo postcensal
y2

METODO
POSTCENSAL

CENS
O METODO
INTERSCENSAL

950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
 PARABOLICO
N Dato ao (t) poblacion (Y) Formula del metodo pa
1 1950 31077
2 1960 64934
3 1970 115423
4 1980 175425
5 1990 259979
6 1995 315289
7 2000 370730
8 2005 413481
9 2010 466814

Ao Poblacin (Y) x

1995 315,289 0
2000 370,730 0.5 VALOR (X)
2005 413,481 1 x=0 EC0
2010 466,814 1.5 x=0.5 EC1
2011 480798.376 1.6 x=1 EC2
2012 496323.088 1.7 x=1.5 EC3
2013 513574.312 1.8
2014 532738.224 1.9
2015 554001 2 55441=1.5+0.25+0.125
2016 577548.816 2.1 98192=++
2017 603567.848 2.2 55441=1.5+2.25+3.375
2018 632244.272 2.3
2019 663764.264 2.4
2020 698314 2.5
2021 736079.656 2.6
2022 777247.408 2.7
2023 822003.432 2.8 Y=a+bx+
2024 870533.904 2.9 OPERANDO Y=315,289+13
2025 923025 3 EN TABLA INICIAL
2026 979662.896 3.1
2027 1040633.77 3.2
1800000
2028 1106123.79 3.3
1600000
2029 1176319.14 3.4
2030 1251406 3.5 1400000
2031 1331570.54 3.6 1200000
2032 1416998.93 3.7
1000000
2033 1507877.35 3.8
2034 1604391.98 3.9 800000 CENS
2035 1706729 4 O
600000

400000

200000

0
1000000

800000 CENS
O
600000

400000

200000

0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
rmula del metodo parabolico

Y = a + + ^2 + ^3
315,289 = a
370,730 = 315,289 +(0.5) + (0.5) ^2 +(0.5) ^3
413,481 = 315,289 +(1) + (1) ^2 +(1) ^3
466,814 = 315,289 +(1.5) + (1.5) ^2 +(1.5) ^3

ARMADO DE SISTEMA DE ECUACIONES 3X3

55,441 = 0.5 0.25 0.125
98,192 = 1 1 1
151,525 = 1.5 2.25 3.375
a= 315,289
b= 139086.67
c= -71924
d= 31029.333

Y=a+bx+ ^2+ ^3
Y=315,289+139,086.667x 71924 ^2+ 31029.333 ^3

METODO PARABOLICO

CENS
O
 CENS
O

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

 6 -3 0.66666667
-10 8 -2
4 -4 1.33333333