Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Share Holding Pattern % DCB Bank is planning to raise Rs 400 equity capital to strengthen it Tier 1
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 CRAR ratio to support the loan growth momentum.
Promoters 16.2 16.2 16.2 We value DCB Bank at (2.2x P/B and 10.4x EPS at FY19) Rs 205 and
DII 14.9 15.3 15.9 maintain BUY.
FII 23.6 22.2 20.0
Others 45.3 46.3 47.9 Financials/Valuation FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
NII 508 620 797 1,033 1,212
DCB is trading at its higher range of PPP 277 349 418 536 672
P/B PAT 191 195 200 253 321
3.00 NIM % 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.0
2.50 EPS (Rs) 6.8 6.8 7.0 8.2 10.4
2.00 EPS growth (%) 12% 1% 2% 17% 27%
1.50 ROE (%) 13.9% 11.5% 10.7% 11.2% 11.8%
1.00 ROA (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
0.50 BV 56 63 68 84 93
- P/B (X) 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.1 1.9
4QFY09
2QFY10
4QFY10
2QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
4QFY13
2QFY14
4QFY14
2QFY15
4QFY15
2QFY16
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17
Adjusted for tax in Total Income 230 237 252 274 284 23% 4% 840 1,047 25%
4Q FY16, PAT Ope Exp. 133 144 151 164 169 27% 3% 491 628 28%
would have grown PPP 97 93 101 109 115 19% 6% 349 418 20%
by 14% YoY in 4Q Provisions 27 21 26 31 34 25% 11% 88 111 27%
FY17. PBT 70 72 74 79 81 17% 3% 261 307 17%
Tax 0 25 26 27 29 N/A 4% 67 107 61%
Net Profit 70 47 48 51 53 -24% 3% 195 200 3%
3.9 4.0
3.9
12.9
12.5
12.7
12.5
12.5
12.3
11.9
13.1
12.3
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.6
7.3
7.7
Focus on Priority
Sector lending Fee Income Growth will remain moderate in near to mid-term.
gives an Other Income growth remained muted to 3.5% YoY mainly due to lower fee income growth of 9% YoY.
opportunity to Treasury income was flat YoY at Rs 4 Cr.
generate fees
We expect fee income growth to remain muted in near term as most of the branches are newly
from PLCs. opened and immature which will take much time to generate any significant fee income growth.
Assets Quality
Assets Quality largely remained stable with GNPA at 1.59% against 1.55% and NNPA at 0.79% against
stabilizes
0.74% a quarter back.
Slippages declined by 6% QoQ while the slippage ratio was 51 bps against 55 bps on 3Q FY17.
GNPA at corporate book was higher at Rs 86 Cr against Rs 65 Cr in 3Q FY17. GNPA at mortgage book
was at Rs 72 Cr against Rs 67 in 3Q FY17. While it declined in SME book from Rs 37 Cr to Rs 32 Cr.
PCR including technical write offs remained strong at 74%.
4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
GNPA (Rs) 197 231 255 228 254 28.6% 11.4% 197 254 28.6%
GNPA % 1.51 1.72 1.75 1.55 1.59 0.08 0.04 1.5 1.6 0.08
NNPA (Rs) 98 116 121 108 124 27.6% 15.2% 98 124 27.6%
NNPA % 0.75 0.87 0.84 0.74 0.79 0.04 0.05 0.8 0.8 0.04
Slippages (Rs) 51 58 50 79 74 45.8% -6.4% 225 261 16.0%
PCR% (In. Tech Write offs) 77.6 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 -3.75 -1.84 77.6 73.8 -3.75
Prov/Avg Adv% (Annl.) 0.88 0.63 0.76 0.84 0.89 0.01 0.05 0.75 0.78 2.4%
GNPA % NNPA % PCR % (Inc. Technical Write offs) Provisions/Avg. Advances % (Annualised)
3.00 90.0
74.7 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 0.9 0.9
71.9 72.2 72.8 80.0 0.8
77.6 0.8
2.50 0.8
70.0
0.7 0.7
60.0 0.6
2.00 0.6
50.0
1.50 40.0
30.0
1.00
1.76
1.01
1.22
1.99
1.16
1.12
1.51
1.75
0.84
1.55
0.74
1.59
0.79
1.96
1.98
0.75
1.72
0.87
20.0
0.50 10.0
Deposits grew by 29.2% YoY led by demonetization impact. CASA grew by 34.4% YoY, however it
declined by 3.7% QoQ as per expected due to cash limit withdrawal by RBI.
Thus CASA ratio declined to 24.3% against 25.9% on 3Q FY17. CD ratio improved to 82% from 77.4%
in previous quarter.
Concall Highlights:
After FY19 C/I ratio will be below 55%.
Comfortable to grow loan book at 20%.
Competition is intensive from every finance companies.
Comfortable for NIM around 3.7%.
See PLC certificate as an opportunity to grow fee income.
15% fee income growth is possible if branches get matured.
QIP will be raised till Dec, 2017.
Not to grow corporate book beyond 20%. Focus on retail, SME and small ticket size loan.
Added personal loan product recently and expect it to be 5% of the book within a year.
After reaching 300 branches in oct or dec qtr, pace of adding new branches will decline. Only 10 to 12
branches will be added per year.
Hold Rs 40 cr of floating provisions in BS.
Total employee count is 4979.
Rs 45 Cr restructured assets outstanding in 3 accounts.
Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 12609 13269 13557 14084 14926 15680 17685 18840 19289
Growth YoY % 22.1 25.8 24.4 18.9 18.4 18.2 30.4 33.8 29.2
>> Growth QoQ % 6.4 5.2 2.2 3.9 6.0 5.0 12.8 6.5 2.4
CASA (Rs) 2950 3057 3267 3218 3490 3619 3875 4871 4689
CASA Growth YoY % 14.3 14.1 17.7 14.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 51.4 34.4
>> Growth QoQ % 4.7 3.6 6.9 -1.5 8.5 3.7 7.1 25.7 -3.7
CASA % 23.4 23.0 24.1 22.8 23.4 23.1 21.9 25.9 24.3
Credit Deposit Ratio 83.0 78.6 82.5 83.3 86.6 85.1 81.6 77.4 82.0
Other Status
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Branches 154 157 160 176 198 205 228 248 262
ATM 328 343 373 397 410 442 490 496 515
Business (In Cr) 23074 23695 24738 25820 27847 29017 32121 33424 35107
Busi. Per Branch (Cr) 150 151 155 147 141 142 141 135 134
Business Growth % YoY 25.0 25.7 25.6 21.0 20.7 22.5 29.8 29.5 26.1
11,181
11,736
12,921
13,337
14,436
15,818
10,465
14,584
4,000 10.0
13,269
13,557
14,084
14,926
15,680
17,685
19,289
12,609
18,840
5.0 5,000
2,000 5.0
- - - -
51.4
12.0 43.0
34.4
15.0
17.7 18.3 18.4 18.6
14.3 14.1 14.2
17.0
23.4
23.0
22.8
23.4
23.1
25.9
24.3
24.1
21.9
Mortgages AIB
Corporate Banking SME + MSME
Gold Loans Construction Finance
Commercial Vehicle Others (PL, Auto, Others)
135 134
Company Update JYOTHYLABs result for Q3FY17 was better than our expectations
CMP 399 considering tough demand environment. Overall volume for this quarter
grew by 3.6% YoY led by proactive measure of the management like
Target Price 410
switching production plans to maximize small skus production, helping
Previous Target Price NA reduce payment burden on retailers etc. Going forward, management is
Upside 3% confident of demand revival as demonetization effect will ease of. As far as
Change from Previous NA margin is concern, the company is looking to increase prices by 5-7%
going ahead which gives us confidence that company may protect margin
going forwards. Implementation of GST may be game changer for
Market Data Organized FMCG players. It may boost market share of the company in
BSE Code 532926 times to come. Lastly, JYOTHYLAB gets large chunk of its revenue from
NSE Symbol JYOTHYLAB South market and South market conditions are improving rapidly which is
52wk Range H/L 427/270 positive for this company. We initiated `BUY on JYOTHYLAB on 27th
Jan2017 at Rs356 with a target price of Rs 410. As company has
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 7,256
achieved our target and considering GST related hiccups going
Av. Volume(,000) 172 forward, we recommend to `BOOK PROFIT for now.
Nifty 9,139 Q3FY17_Result Update
Stock Performance JYOTHYLABs sales for this quarter grew by 3% YoY to Rs400 cr led by
1M 3M 12M 3.6% YoY volume improvement. EBITDA declined by 1.3% led by inflation
in key input prices. Gross margin for this quarter, declined by 293 bps YoY
Absolute 9.0 17.0 31.0
led by increase in major raw material prices. In spite of sharp increase in
Rel.to Nifty 9.0 8.0 12.0 input prices, the company managed other cost items efficiently and
controlled EBITDA margin decline to 55 bps YoY which is commendable.
Share Holding Pattern-% PAT margin improved by 18 bps YoY to 5.4% in Q3FY17. PAT grew by7%
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17 YoY to Rs 22 cr.
Promoters 66.9 66.9 66.9 Concall Highlights:
Public 33.1 33.1 33.2 The company will take Selective price increase (price increase as well as
Others -- -- -- reduction of promotion) in Q4FY17 to achieve desired gross margin levels.
Going forward, the company is looking for 5-7% price hike.
Total 100 100 100
In the month of Jan till date company is witnessing double digit growth.
Expected Tax Rate: Q4FY17: 21%, FY18:21% (MAT credit)
Company Vs NIFTY Approx. 75% of the business in South is back to normal.
140
North and East are still struggling.
JYOTHYLAB NIFTY
From 4QFY17 on wards ad expenses will be back to the normal.
130 Next year ad and promotion expenses will be in the range of 15% of the
120 sales.
Margin will back to the normal going forward.
110
Rs,Cr
100 Financials 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
90 Sales 1515 1647 1758 1958 2161
80 EBITDA 163 220 261 270 288
Net Profit 121 158 133 147 161
EPS 7 9 7 8 9
Rajeev Anand ROE 16% 19% 15% 16% 18%
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 10
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Overall volume growth(%)
16%
Overall volume growth(%) 14%
14%
12%
10% 10%
10% 9% 9% 9%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
0%
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Almond Drop Hair Oil (ADHO) Volume gr % YoY: Quarterly Sales and PAT(in cr)
0%
100
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 58 58
-2% 49 54 52 53
47
-4.30% -4.20% 50
-4%
-6% -7.08% 0
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
-8%
BAJAJ CORP is engaged in the business activity of trading and manufacturing of cosmetics, toiletries and other personal care
products. It is a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company. The Company's products include Bajaj Kailash Parbat Thanda
Tel, Bajaj Almond Drops Hair Oil, Bajaj Brahmi Amla Hair Oil, Bajaj Jasmine Hair Oil, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Face Wash, Bajaj
Nomarks Herbal Scrub Soap, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Cream, Bajaj Nomarks Neem Soap, Bajaj Nomarks Oil Control Soap and
others. The Company has approximately nine Factory, of which four units are situated in Himachal Pradesh , three units are
situated in Uttrakhand for manufacturing of various variants of hair oils and Nomarks and other unit is situated in Guwahati and
one unit Bangladesh.The company reaches consumers through 3.6mn retail outlets serviced by 7707 distributors and 11500
wholesalers.
Company Update Recently Indian Oil Corporation has confirmed that it has received nod
CMP 424 from National Green Tribunal to carry on its LPG import terminal project at
Puthuvypeen, Kochi. The project work has been stalled since February
Target Price 445
2015 due to protests, alleging that Indian Oil is violating NGT order. This
Previous Target Price 410 project also includes LPG pipeline from the Jetty to Kochi refinery and the
Upside 5% expected cost of the project is around Rs. 2200 Cr. This project will help
Change from Previous - the company to cater the growing demands of LPG by 2020. Further IOCs
management indicated merger with Chennai Petroleum, but refrains from
giving any timeline. Post merger management expects volume growth
Market Data between 3- 4 million tonne for the year.
BSE Code 530965
Q3FY17_Result Update
NSE Symbol IOC
52wk Range H/L 431/196 Profit after tax has increased by 29% to Rs. 3995 Cr in 3QFY17 as
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 2,06,133 compared to Rs. 3096 Cr in the same quarter in FY16.
Av. Volume(,000) 452 Revenue from sale of Petroleum products has increased from Rs. 93261
Nifty 9,139 Cr to Rs. 111212 Cr in 3QFY17.
Revenue from sale of Petrochemicals has increased from Rs. 4205 Cr to
Stock Performance Rs. 4714 Cr in 3QFY17.
1M 3M 12M Revenue from Other business activities has increased from Rs. 2758 Cr
Absolute 12.9 104.5 59.4 to Rs. 2940 Cr in 3QFY17.
Rel.to Nifty 13.2 85.9 53.9 The effective tax rate for 3QFY17 is 35.5% and the company pays total
tax of Rs. 2196 Cr.
Feb-17
Sep-16
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
(2.00)
(4.80)
(7.70)
Business Model
Indian Oil Corporation Limited is an India-based oil company.
The Companys segments include Sale of Petroleum Products,
Sale of Petrochemicals and Other businesses, which consist of
sale of gas, explosives and cryogenics, wind mill and solar power
generation and oil and gas exploration activities.The Companys
subsidiaries include Indian Oil (Mauritius) Ltd, IOC Middle East
FZE, IOC Sweden AB, IOCL (USA) INC., Chennai Petroleum
Corporation Ltd and Lanka IOC PLC.It is the largest refining and
marketing company in India. It operates 8 refineries (incl BRPL)
with a capacity of 54.2mmtpa and has a 52% stake in CPCL
(11.5mmt refining capacity). The company controls a refining
capacity of 65.7 mmtpa. It has a pipeline network of >10,300km
(62mmtpa capacity), has 22,372 petrol/diesel outlets and has
interests in petrochemicals and upstream oil and gas. IOC is a
Public Sector Company with 78.9% Government stake.
70
BERGEPAINT signs MoU with Chugoku Marine Paints :
The company has entered into an MoU with Chugoku Marine Paints of Japan
50
for cooperation and collaboration in the field of marine and related industrial
Jul-16
Apr-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Sep-16
Mar-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
May-16
Nov-16
paints. The plan is to establish a joint venture company. The MoU also
allows for joint efforts in marketing, supply, purchasing marine related
BINEETA KUMARI industrial paints.
bineeta.kumari@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Other expenses Financials 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY15 FY16 YoY %
saw one-time Net Sales 1,235 1,139 1,246 1,271 1,297 5% 2% 4,322 4,634 7%
hit, which put Other Income 7 11 10 18 8 9% -56% 36 34 -4%
pressure on
COGS 643 575 621 644 684 6% 6% 2,531 2,573 2%
margins though
will not be Employee Cost 71 69 75 76 80 12% 5% 253 281 11%
impacted going Other Expenses 210 225 227 248 227 8% -8% 1,027 1,125 10%
forward. EBITDA 192 156 195 179 184 -4% 3% 511 655 28%
Depreciation 25 24 26 27 27 7% 0% 93 100 8%
Interest 6 5 3 5 4 -23% -13% 50 29 -42%
PBT 168 138 176 165 160 -5% -3% 404 561 39%
Tax 56 47 59 73 52 -7% -28% 139 191 37%
PAT 112 93 120 137 110 -2% -20% 265 370 40%
Margin Performance
Margin % 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY15 FY16 YoY(+/-)
Gross Margin 48% 50% 50% 49% 47% -1% -2% 41% 44% 3%
EBITDA Margin 16% 14% 16% 14% 14% -1% 0% 12% 14% 2%
PAT Margin 9% 8% 10% 11% 8% -1% -2% 6% 8% 2%
Gross margin down 65 bps impacted by increase in input cost while EBITDA margin was down by 137
bps due to high employee costs (12% YoY) and one time hit of other expenses (8% YoY).
To offset the impact of increase in input cost the company have initiated 3% hike in decorative prices.
The impact of rising crude prices was lower in Decorative segment due to increase in no. of share of
water based paint rather than solvent based paint.
PAT margin down by 100bps YoY due to lower gross margin.
195
192
100
184
179
60 112 120
156
110
154
13% 4%
149
89 93
13% 40 77
50
2%
12% 20
- 12% 0 0%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Concall Highlights:
Volume growth stood in double digits (10%).
Expects demand to improve going forward.
Confident of volume growth to in the range of 1.5-1.6x to GDP growth.
Tier 1 and 2 cities were impacted more than tier 3 for the company. Tier 3 was better
because favourable monsoon has started showing results.
Growth will be driven by semi urban and rural markets, expansion of distribution network,
innovations and new product launches.
Both in standalone and JV (joint venture) businesses the company added new clients in auto
segment. More clients are expected to be added in the JV.
Berger signed an MoU with Promat (USD3bn company of Belgium) for co-operation in the
field of fire protection and high performance insulation coating in India, Nepal and
Bangladesh, which entails production, distribution and supply of specialised fire resistant
coatings. The segment is very small in the overall industrial business of the company.
The implementation of One Rank One Pension (OROP), Seventh Pay Commission, revival of
MGNREGA scheme, setting up of smart cities and strong govt. initiatives on infrastructure
development are likely to enhance demand both in rural and urban markets. Governments
ambitious plan ``Housing for All by 2022 will be major growth driver for the company.
Implementation of GST will boost companys market share going forward. With the
commencement of Assam Plant the company will enjoy a 10 year tax holiday at new plant
and will also benefit from VAT exemption for sales in Assam. Recent MoU with Chugoku
Marine Paints of Japan will help to expand companys footprint in industrial paint segment.
Thus, considering strong revival in Urban and rural demand, GST implementation and
commencement of Assam Plant, We remain positive on the stock and recommend "BUY"
with the target Price of Rs 267.
Company Update Smart bounce back by Maggie shows strong brand value:
CMP 6518
Target Price 7920 Nestle came out with bang after Maggie fiasco which shook it two years
ago. Due to Maggie ban, contribution in Revenue from Prepared dishes
Previous Target Price 7714
and cooking aids went down from 29% in CY14 to 16% in CY15, a decline
Upside 22% of 56% YoY. Nestle relaunched Maggie on 9 nov., 2015 and within 53 days
Change from Previous 3% of relaunch , it regained market share of 33% which shows strong brand
power. Presently, Maggies market share has reached to 60% versus peak
market share of 75% which is commendable. It shows new managements
Market Data
aggression and focus towards NESTLEs future growth. Going forward we
BSE Code 500790 expect brand Maggie to consolidate further with more market share gain.
NSE Symbol NESTLEIND
52wk Range H/L 7930/5490 New product launches, the key of future growth:
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 62,844 After Maggie fiasco, companys new management has become more
Av. Volume(,000) 31 aggressive in launching new products. The company has launched more
Nifty 9,203 than 25 products in last few quarters. NESTLE has strong backing of its
parent with more than 2000 products globally .Going forward, it has plans
Stock Performance to launch more new products from its parents global product portfolio.
1M 3M 12M According to management, new products are doing well.
Absolute 6.9 11.8 12.0 Historically NESTLE has strong pricing power:
Rel.to Nifty 3.5 0.4 -10.4
As in most the FMCG categories input prices have bottomed out and have
started moving up. Hence going forward we expect growth for FMCG will
Share Holding Pattern-%
be pricing led. NESTLE has strong premium product portfolio and strong
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17
pricing power. Hence going forward we expect strong growth for NESLE.
Promoters 62.8 62.8 62.8
Public 37.2 37.2 37.2
Others - - - Urban demand recovery led growth going forward:
Total 100 100 100
For last four years urban demand is struggling due to higher inflation and
lower economic activities which is one of the causes of companys dismal
Company Vs NIFTY performance. As NESTLEs most of the sales comes from urban areas,
130 NESTLEIND NIFTY approx. 75%, hence any recovery in urban demand will be huge positive
125 for the company. We expect better demand scenario for urban market
120 going ahead led by declining inflation and interest rate scenario.
115
110
105
Rs,Cr
100
95 Financials 4QCY16 3QCY16 (QoQ)-% 4QCY15 (YoY)-%
90 Sales 2286 2363 -3% 1959 17%
85
80 EBITDA 403 447 -10% 353 14%
Net Profit 164 269 -39% 183 -10%
EBITDA% 18% 19% (129 Bps) 18% (37 Bps)
Rajeev Anand PAT% 7% 11% (421 Bps) 9% (216 Bps)
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 22
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Segmental Revenue (%):
100%
16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 13%
80% 16%
23% 25% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29%
60% 16%
18% 16% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13%
40%
55%
20% 43% 43% 44% 44% 45% 43% 45%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
25% 23%
22% 22%
21%
19% 19% 19%
20% 18% 18%
15%
15% 13%
12% 12% 12%
11%
10%
9%
10% 7% 7%
5%
0% -3%
-5%
KEY RISKS:
Any sharp increase in milk and other key input prices will be margin dilutive for the company. Delay in
urban demand recovery will be another risk to our recommendation.
Our buy recommendation on NESTLE is based on Maggies market share gain, new product launches
and expectation of urban demand recovery going forward. The companys ROE improved to 31% in
CY16 from 20% year ago. We expect ROE to improve further going ahead. Presently we have
positive view on this stock and recommend to `BUY this stock with target price of Rs 7920.
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