Censos vitor

Ao poblacion
1972.00 2708.00
1981.00 2740.00
1993.00 3196.00
2005.00 3447.00
2007.00 3545.00
fuente inei

calculo de la poblacion de diseo

metodo aritmetico
Ao poblacion razon
1972.00 2708.00
1981.00 2740.00 3.56
1993.00 3196.00 38.00
2005.00 3447.00 20.92
2007.00 3545.00 49.00
sumatoria 27.87

ao 2020.00
pob 2031 3907.28

metodo de interes simple

Ao poblacion Pi+1-Pi Pi(ti+1-ti) r
1972.00 2708.00
1981.00 2740.00 32.00 24372.00 0.00
1993.00 3196.00 456.00 32880.00 0.01
2005.00 3447.00 251.00 38352.00 0.01
2007.00 3545.00 98.00 6894.00 0.01
0.01
ao 2031.00
pob 2031 4309.48

metodo geometrico
Ao poblacion t r
1972.00 2708.00
1981.00 2740.00 9.00 1.00
1993.00 3196.00 12.00 1.01
2005.00 3447.00 12.00 1.01
2007.00 3545.00 2.00 1.01
1.01
ao 2031.00
pob 2031 4360.39

metodo de la parabola
Ao poblacion t 3196.00 =
1993.00 3196.00 0.00 0.00 3447.00 =
2005.00 3447.00 12.00 12.00 3545.00 =
2007.00 3545.00 2.00 14.00

Valores X Valores Y Valores Z

0.00 0.00 1.00 Determinante -336.00
144.00 12.00 1.00
196.00 14.00 1.00

V ind Valores Y Valores Z DA -674.00 2.01

3196.00 0.00 1.00
3447.00 12.00 1.00
3545.00 14.00 1.00

Valores X V ind Valores Z DB 1060.00 -3.15

0.00 3196.00 1.00
144.00 3447.00 1.00
196.00 3545.00 1.00

Valores X V ind V ind DC -1073856.00 3196.00

0.00 0.00 3196.00
144.00 12.00 3447.00
196.00 14.00 3545.00

ao 2026.00
pob 2031 5276.38

METODO DE LOS INCREMETOS VARIABLES

Ao poblacion P 2P
1972.00 2708.00 0.00 0.00
1981.00 2740.00 32.00 0.00
1993.00 3196.00 456.00 424.00
2005.00 3447.00 251.00 -205.00
2007.00 3545.00 98.00 -153.00
837.00 16.50

P= 166.40
2P= 1.30
m= 1.00

ao 2026.00
 pob 2031 3711.40

METODO DE LA CURVA NORMAL LOGISTICA

Ao poblacion
1993.00 3196.00
2005.00 3447.00
2007.00 3545.00

condiciones
a) Po*P2P12 ok
b) Po+P2<2*P1 ok

Ps 3600.61
a -2.07
b -1.04
t 3.30

ao 2026.00
pob 2031 3586.13
 0.00 A + 0.00 B + 1.00 C
144.00 A + 12.00 B + 1.00 C
196.00 A + 14.00 B + 1.00 C
 METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS
Ao poblacion Yi log Yi Xi2
1972 2708 1.1816839 0.0725013183 7333264
1981 2740 16.642336 1.2212142798 7507600
1993 3196 7.853567 0.8950669508 10214416
2005 3447 2.8430519 0.4537847923 11881809
2007 3545
12091 28.520639 2.6425673413 36937089
3022.75 7.1301596 0.6606418353 9234272.25

CRECIMIENTO ARITMETICO
Yi= 26.639245924 + -0.006454085 Xi

CRECIMIENTO GEOMETRICO
a= 6.6093780708
b= -0.000121514

-0.000121514 Xi
Yi= 6.6093780708 e

AOS DESPUES POBLACION

DEL ULTIMO CENSO ARTIMETICO GEOMETRICO
2007 0 3545 3545
2017 10 3678.2747571 3697.2991636022
2021 14 3784.9207042 3853.2287867021
2031 24 3868.6070009 4012.6844694311

METODO DE LA PARA
Ao poblacion X X2 XY
1972 2708 0 0 0
1981 2740 0.9 0.81 2466
1993 3196 1.2 1.44 3835.2
2005 3447 1.2 1.44 4136.4
2007 3545 0.2 0.04 709
5 15636 4 4 11147

5 4 4 4
4 4 4 5
4 4 5 13
4 5 13 8416032702165560000000

P2031 9844.2664598
RADOS
Xi*Yi Xi*logYi
3200 196.3335699748
45600 3346.1271267727
25100 2860.6339748817
9800 1564.1961790048

83700 7967.2908506341
20925 1991.8227126585

1
3022.75

1
3022.75

CRECIMIENTO POR DECADA INCREMENTO POR DECADA

ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO
3.7595136 4.2961682257 133.274757 152.2991636021
2.89934695 4.217392648 106.645947 155.9296230999
2.21104491 4.1382355307 83.6862967 159.455682729
1.67092642 4.0588246947 64.6415764 162.8678281638

METODO DE LA PARABOLA CUBICA

X3 X4 X5 X6
0 0 0 0
0.729 0.6561 0.34867844 224883935851513000000
1.728 2.0736 6.19173642 3182204606919270000000
1.728 2.0736 6.19173642 5008817137843860000000
0.008 0.0016 1.024E-007 127021550911887000
4 5 13 8416032702165560000000

15636 0.7945148033
11147 -2.7427381252
11927 1.7766781291
13505 -1.5177879543634E-021
 3022.75 7.13015964 94.9493797 -0.031080764
9234272.25 20925 -0.03108076 1.02823E-005

3022.75 0.66064184 94.9493797 -0.031080764

9234272.25 1991.82271 -0.03108076 1.02823E-005

X2Y X3Y
0 0
2219.4 1997.46
4602.24 5522.688
4963.68 5956.416
141.8 28.36
11927 13505

-2.74273813 1.776678129 -4.413E-017 15636 ao

23.557643 -18.42843431 2.375E-016 11147 a1
-18.4284343 14.91049046 -1.637E-016 11927 a2
1.5796E-020 -1.2921E-020 1.188E-022 13505 a3
7.1301596385 a 26.6392459
20925 b -0.00645409

0.6606418353 A 0.8201606
1991.8227127 B -5.277E-005

3041.4819257
-95.976963292
204.96239761
-1.65929E-019