Datos:

Accnococha Choclococha

Ao ENE Ao ENE
1976 131.70 1976 193.10
1977 96.90 1977 104.80
1978 120.80 1978 115.20
1979 64.60 1979 56.90
1980 1980 93.00
1981 1981 47.20
1982 1982 69.10
1983 75.10 1983 5.50
1984 153.20 1984 19.10
1985 71.40 1985 10.40
1986 209.20 1986 100.50
1987 202.00 1987 255.10
1988 188.60 1988 248.40

Num. 10 Num. 13
Prom. 131.35 Prom. 101.407692
Desv. Est. 55.094751716 Desv. Est. 83.7293404

ESTACIONARIZACIN Y ANALISIS DE REGRESIN ENTRE LAS ESTACIONES INVOLUCRADAS

Estacin Estacin Estacin

Ao Nmero Accnococha Choclococha Santa Genara

1976 1 0.01 1.10 0.50

1977 2 -0.63 0.04 -0.49
1978 3 -0.19 0.16 -0.20
1979 4 -1.21 -0.53 -0.42
1980 5 -0.10 -0.16
 1981 6 -0.65 -0.61
1982 7 -0.39
1983 8 -1.02 -1.15 -0.49
1984 9 0.40 -0.98 2.63
1985 10 -1.09 -1.09 -1.16
1986 11 1.41 -0.01 -0.64
1987 12 1.28 1.84 0.07
1988 13 1.04 1.76 0.99

"Valor estacionario"=((Valor Promedio))/

(Desviacion estandar)

MATRIZ DE CORRELACN SIMPLE

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Accnococha Choclococha Santa GenaraTunel Cero
Estacin
1 0.67 0.40 0.96
Accnococha
Estacin
1 0.20 0.64
Choclococha
Estacin
1 0.39
Santa Genara
Estacin
1
Tunel Cero

Mximo Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

 Choclococha Choclococha Santa GenaraAccnococha
Santa Genara Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Santa Genara
Estacin 0.69 0.94 0.92
Accnococha 9.00 10.00 9.00
Estacin 0.65
Choclococha Mximo 9.00
Estacin
Santa Genara
Estacin
Tunel Cero

0 1 0 0
0.67
0.96
0.64
1 1 2 0
2 3 3 2
1
3
Encontrando los coeficientes del modelo
r13 0.67 Nmero
r23 0.96 1
r12 0.64 2
Entonces: 3
a1= 0.088 4
a2= 0.902 5
6
Desestacionalizando la serie de datos: 7
8
Estacin 9
Accnococha 10
Ao Original Completado 11
1976 131.70 t_accnococha=a1
12 (t_choclococha
1977 96.90 13 )
1978 120.80
1979 64.60
X_1989=Prom. +Desv.Est.
1980 123.463587
1981 101.977697
1982 137.735599
1983 75.10
1984 153.20
1985 71.40
1986 209.20
1987 202.00
1988 188.60
 Santa Genara Tunel Cero

Ao ENE Ao ENE
1976 116.30 1976 156.00
1977 60.10 1977 68.30
1978 76.43 1978 145.40
1979 63.99 1979 60.80
1980 78.80 1980 135.60
1981 53.57 1981 113.60
1982 1982 153.90
1983 60.26 1983 105.39
1984 236.57 1984 160.60
1985 22.59 1985 89.40
1986 51.67 1986 236.70
1987 92.01 1987 215.50
1988 143.65 1988 234.00

Num. 12 Num. 13
Prom. 87.995 Prom. 144.2453846
Desv. Est. 56.4990762 Desv. Est. 58.05430599

S ESTACIONES INVOLUCRADAS

Estacin Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Choclococha

Tunel Cero
Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.67
0.20 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.44
-1.31 Observaciones 10.00
0.02
-1.44 Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Santa Genara
-0.15
 -0.53 Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.40
0.17 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.16
-0.67 Observaciones 9.00
0.28
-0.94 Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Tunel Cero
1.59
1.23 Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.96
1.55 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.92
Observaciones 10.00

Estacin Choclococha- Estacin Santa Genara

Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.20

Coeficiente de determinacion 0.04
Observaciones 12.00

Estacin Choclococha- Estacin Tunel Cero

Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.64

Coeficiente de determinacion 0.41
))/ Observaciones 13.00

Estacin Santa Genar- Estacin Tunel Cero

Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.39

Coeficiente de determinacion 0.15
Observaciones 12.00

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION MULTIPLE

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Choclococha Choclococha Santa Genara Accnococha
Santa GenaraTunel Cero Tunel Cero Santa Genara
Estacin
0.72 0.96 0.96
Accnococha
Estacin
0.67
Choclococha
Estacin
Santa Genara
Estacin
Tunel Cero

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

 Accnococha Santa GenaraAccnococha Accnococha Choclococha Accnococha
Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha

0.65 0.64
10.00 12.00
0.39 0.38 0.39
9.00 9.00 12.00
0.93
10.00

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2 0 0 1 0
3 3 1 3 3 1

1 2 3 1 2
Choclococha Santa GenaraTunel Cero
1.10 0.50 0.20 0.0966482205
0.04 -0.49 -1.31 0.0035756598
0.16 -0.20 0.02 0.0145377734
-0.53 -0.42 -1.44 -0.046913306
-0.10 -0.16 -0.15 -0.008862123
-0.65 -0.61 -0.53 -0.057137585
-0.39 0.17 -0.034053903
-1.15 -0.49 -0.67 -0.101091444
-0.98 2.63 0.28 -0.086756372
-1.09 -1.16 -0.94 -0.095926602
-0.01 -0.64 1.59 -0.000956753
ocha=a1 (t_choclococha )+a2 (t_(tunel
1.84 0.07 1.23cero) 0.1619992823
1.76
) 0.99 1.55 0.1549371514

989=Prom. +Desv.Est.(t_accnococha )
a Genara
a Genara

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Accnococha Santa GenaraAccnococha Accnococha Choclococha Accnococha
Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha

0.67 0.64

0.41 0.40 0.39

0.96

Estacin Estacin
Accnococha Choclococha
Santa GenaraSanta Genara El valor maximo:
0.94

0.92 0.69
9.00 12.00

0 0

0 1
2 2
1
3
3M Mx 1 2 3

0.09664822 0.09664822 0.18257335

0.00357566 0.00357566 -1.17958801
0.01453777 0.01453777 0.01793355
-0.04691331 -0.04691331 -1.29607843
-0.00886212 -0.00886212 -0.1342806
-0.05713758 -0.05713758 -0.47598585
-0.0340539 -0.0340539 0.14995603
-0.10109144 -0.10109144 -0.60350403
-0.08675637 -0.08675637 0.25402081
-0.0959266 -0.0959266 -0.85186161
-0.00095675 -0.00095675 1.43601031
0.16199928 0.16199928 1.10673071
0.15493715 0.15493715 1.39407376
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Estacin Estacin
Accnococha Choclococha
Santa GenaraSanta Genara

0.96 0.69
M Mx S

0.18257335 0.18257335 0.27922157

-1.17958801 -1.17958801 -1.17601235
0.01793355 0.01793355 0.03247132
-1.29607843 -1.29607843 -1.34299174
-0.1342806 -0.1342806 -0.14314273
-0.47598585 -0.47598585 -0.53312343
0.14995603 0.14995603 0.11590213
-0.60350403 -0.60350403 -0.70459547
0.25402081 0.25402081 0.16726444
-0.85186161 -0.85186161 -0.94778822
1.43601031 1.43601031 1.43505356
1.10673071 1.10673071 1.26873
1.39407376 1.39407376 1.54901091
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Datos:

Accnococha Choclococha

Ao ENE Ao ENE
1976 131.70 1976 193.10
1977 96.90 1977 104.80
1978 120.80 1978 115.20
1979 64.60 1979 56.90
1980 110.10 1980 93.00
1981 125.30 1981 47.20
1982 132.40 1982 69.10
1983 75.10 1983 5.50
1984 153.20 1984 19.10
1985 71.40 1985 10.40
1986 209.20 1986 100.50
1987 202.00 1987 255.10
1988 188.60 1988 248.40
1989 1989 114.80
1990 1990 21.30
1991 1991 111.10
1992 116.96 1992 91.80
1993 147.95 1993 131.60
1994 145.87 1994 133.50
1995 119.39 1995 33.30
1996 128.87 1996 223.40
1997 152.27 1997 253.00
1998 167.95 1998 373.60

Num. 20 Num. 23
Prom. 133.028 Prom. 121.986957
Desv. Est. 39.98137706 Desv. Est. 95.2748622

ESTACIONARIZACIN Y ANALISIS DE REGRESIN ENTRE LAS ESTACIONES INVOLUCRADAS

Estacin Estacin Estacin

Ao Nmero Accnococha Choclococha Santa Genara

1976 1 -0.03 0.75 -0.17

1977 2 -0.90 -0.18 -0.90
1978 3 -0.31 -0.07 -0.69
1979 4 -1.71 -0.68 -0.85
1980 5 -0.57 -0.30 -0.66
 1981 6 -0.19 -0.78 -0.98
1982 7 -0.02 -0.56
1983 8 -1.45 -1.22 -0.90
1984 9 0.50 -1.08 1.40
1985 10 -1.54 -1.17 -1.39
1986 11 1.91 -0.23 -1.01
1987 12 1.73 1.40 -0.48
1988 13 1.39 1.33 0.19
1989 14 -0.08 -0.54
1990 15 -1.06 -0.20
1991 16 -0.11 0.42
1992 17 -0.40 -0.32 0.33
1993 18 0.37 0.10 -0.35
1994 19 0.32 0.12 0.51
1995 20 -0.34 -0.93 1.11
1996 21 -0.10 1.06 2.18
1997 22 0.48 1.38 1.81
1998 23 0.87 2.64 1.15

"Valor estacionario"=((Valor Promedio))/

(Desviacion estandar)

MATRIZ DE CORRELACN SIMPLE

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Accnococha Choclococha Santa GenaraTunel Cero
Estacin
1 0.60 0.30 0.82
Accnococha
Estacin
1 0.45 0.42
Choclococha
Estacin
1 0.31
Santa Genara
Estacin
1
Tunel Cero

Mximo Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

 Choclococha Choclococha Santa GenaraAccnococha
Santa Genara Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Santa Genara
Estacin 0.59 0.85 0.81
Accnococha 19.00 20.00 19.00
Estacin 0.65
Choclococha Mximo 19.00
Estacin
Santa Genara
Estacin
Tunel Cero

0 1 0 0
0.60
0.82
0.42
1 1 2 0
2 3 3 2
1
3
Encontrando los coeficientes del modelo
r13 0.60 Nmero
r23 0.82 1
r12 0.42 2
Entonces: 3
a1= 0.310 4
a2= 0.690 5
6
Desestacionalizando la serie de datos: 7
8
Estacin 9
Accnococha 10
Ao Original Completado 11
1976 131.70 t_accnococha=a1
12 (t_choclococha
1977 96.90 13 )
1978 120.80 14
1979 64.60 15
X_1989=Prom. +Desv.Est.
1980 110.10 16
1981 125.30 17
1982 132.40 18
1983 75.10 19
1984 153.20 20
1985 71.40 21
1986 209.20 22
1987 202.00 23
1988 188.60
1989 159.623952
1990 137.645457
1991 184.838721
1992 116.96
1993 147.95
1994 145.87
1995 119.39
1996 128.87
1997 152.27
1998 167.95
 Santa Genara Tunel Cero

Ao ENE Ao ENE
1976 116.30 1976 156.00
1977 60.10 1977 68.30
1978 76.43 1978 145.40
1979 63.99 1979 60.80
1980 78.80 1980 135.60
1981 53.57 1981 113.60
1982 1982 153.90
1983 60.26 1983 105.39
1984 236.57 1984 160.60
1985 22.59 1985 89.40
1986 51.67 1986 236.70
1987 92.01 1987 215.50
1988 143.65 1988 234.00
1989 87.59 1989 222.70
1990 113.38 1990 202.10
1991 161.52 1991 276.60
1992 153.99 1992 202.50
1993 102.53 1993 165.20
1994 167.93 1994 177.00
1995 214.45 1995 128.10
1996 296.40 1996 216.10
1997 267.61 1997 114.10
1998 217.25 1998 214.30

Num. 22 Num. 23
Prom. 129.026818 Prom. 164.9517391
Desv. Est. 76.67892 Desv. Est. 57.89804853

S ESTACIONES INVOLUCRADAS

Estacin Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Choclococha

Tunel Cero
Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.60
-0.15 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.36
-1.67 Observaciones 20.00
-0.34
-1.80 Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Santa Genara
-0.51
 -0.89 Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.30
-0.19 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.09
-1.03 Observaciones 19.00
-0.08
-1.30 Estacin Accnococha - Estacin Tunel Cero
1.24
0.87 Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.82
1.19 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.67
1.00 Observaciones 20.00
0.64
1.93 Estacin Choclococha- Estacin Santa Genara
0.65
0.00 Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.45
0.21 Coeficiente de determinacion 0.20
-0.64 Observaciones 22.00
0.88
-0.88 Estacin Choclococha- Estacin Tunel Cero
0.85
Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.42
Coeficiente de determinacion 0.18
))/ Observaciones 23.00

Estacin Santa Genar- Estacin Tunel Cero

Coeficiente de correlacion multiple 0.31

Coeficiente de determinacion 0.10
Observaciones 22.00

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION MULTIPLE

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Choclococha Choclococha Santa Genara Accnococha
Santa GenaraTunel Cero Tunel Cero Santa Genara
Estacin
0.60 0.87 0.82
Accnococha
Estacin
0.66
Choclococha
Estacin
Santa Genara
Estacin
Tunel Cero

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

 Accnococha Santa GenaraAccnococha Accnococha Choclococha Accnococha
Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha

0.60 0.53
20.00 22.00
0.44 0.32 0.47
19.00 19.00 22.00
0.81
20.00

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2 0 0 1 0
3 3 1 3 3 1

1 2 3 1 2
Choclococha Santa GenaraTunel Cero
0.75 -0.17 -0.15 0.2312784146
-0.18 -0.90 -1.67 -0.055896526
-0.07 -0.69 -0.34 -0.022072977
-0.68 -0.85 -1.80 -0.211679987
-0.30 -0.66 -0.51 -0.094273245
-0.78 -0.98 -0.89 -0.243226951
-0.56 -0.19 -0.172002362
-1.22 -0.90 -1.03 -0.378846373
-1.08 1.40 -0.08 -0.334615579
-1.17 -1.39 -1.30 -0.362910278
-0.23 -1.01 1.24 -0.069881262
ocha=a1 (t_choclococha )+a2 (t_(tunel
1.40 -0.48 0.87cero) 0.432918803
1.33
) 0.19 1.19 0.411128632
-0.08 -0.54 1.00 -0.023373882
-1.06 -0.20 0.64 -0.327460597
989=Prom. +Desv.Est.(t_accnococha )
-0.11 0.42 1.93 -0.03540726
-0.32 0.33 0.65 -0.098175962
0.10 -0.35 0.00 0.0312641584
0.12 0.51 0.21 0.0374434606
-0.93 1.11 -0.64 -0.288433425
1.06 2.18 0.88 0.3298220238
1.38 1.81 -0.88 0.4260890479
2.64 1.15 0.85 0.818312126
a Genara
a Genara

Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin Estacin

Accnococha Santa GenaraAccnococha Accnococha Choclococha Accnococha
Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha Tunel Cero Tunel Cero Choclococha

0.61 0.54

0.45 0.32 0.47

0.83

Estacin Estacin
Accnococha Choclococha
Santa GenaraSanta Genara El valor maximo:
0.85

0.81 0.44
19.00 22.00

0 0

0 1
2 2
1
3
3M Mx 1 2 3

0.23127841 0.23127841 -0.10673932

-0.05589653 -0.05589653 -1.15246214
-0.02207298 -0.02207298 -0.23313227
-0.21167999 -0.21167999 -1.24189112
-0.09427324 -0.09427324 -0.34998613
-0.24322695 -0.24322695 -0.61231113
-0.17200236 -0.17200236 -0.13177943
-0.37884637 -0.37884637 -0.71020604
-0.33461558 -0.33461558 -0.05188954
-0.36291028 -0.36291028 -0.90086862
-0.06988126 -0.06988126 0.85551647
0.4329188 0.4329188 0.60273056
0.41112863 0.41112863 0.82332203
-0.02337388 -0.02337388 0.68858238
-0.3274606 -0.3274606 0.44295079
-0.03540726 -0.03540726 1.33127862
-0.09817596 -0.09817596 0.44772034
0.03126416 0.03126416 0.00296023
0.03744346 0.03744346 0.14366182
-0.28843343 -0.28843343 -0.43941511
0.32982202 0.32982202 0.60988488
0.42608905 0.42608905 -0.60634919
0.81831213 0.81831213 0.58842192
Estacin Estacin
Accnococha Choclococha
Santa GenaraSanta Genara

0.82 0.44
M Mx S

-0.10673932 -0.10673932 0.1245391

-1.15246214 -1.15246214 -1.20835867
-0.23313227 -0.23313227 -0.25520524
-1.24189112 -1.24189112 -1.4535711
-0.34998613 -0.34998613 -0.44425937
-0.61231113 -0.61231113 -0.85553808
-0.13177943 -0.13177943 -0.30378179
-0.71020604 -0.71020604 -1.08905242
-0.05188954 -0.05188954 -0.38650512
-0.90086862 -0.90086862 -1.2637789
0.85551647 0.85551647 0.7856352
0.60273056 0.60273056 1.03564936
0.82332203 0.82332203 1.23445067
0.68858238 0.68858238 0.6652085
0.44295079 0.44295079 0.11549019
1.33127862 1.33127862 1.29587136
0.44772034 0.44772034 0.34954437
0.00296023 0.00296023 0.03422439
0.14366182 0.14366182 0.18110528
-0.43941511 -0.43941511 -0.72784853
0.60988488 0.60988488 0.9397069
-0.60634919 -0.60634919 -0.18026015
0.58842192 0.58842192 1.40673405