APPLICATION OF GRAY AND FUZZY METHODS
FOR RAINFALL FORECASTING
By Pao-Shan Yu,1 Chia-Jung Chen,2 and Shiann-Jong Chen3
ABSTRACT: The forecasting of future rainfall is one way to extend the lead time of flood forecasting. This
study proposes a rainfall forecast model based on a gray model, in which model parameters are estimated by
using a fuzzy goal regression method. A one-time step forecasting technique is introduced to improve forecasting.
This improvement allows for forecasting further ahead of the event in question. Ten historical storm events
are considered to calibrate and verify the proposed model. Simulation results indicate that the proposed
model exhibits reasonable rainfall mass curves and allows for rainfall hyetograph forecasting 13 h in ad-
vance.
INTRODUCTION
Flood and debris flow caused by heavy rainfall, especially
during the typhoon season, are serious natural hazards in Tai-
wan. A review of recent flood events and debris flow disasters
revealed that research on disaster mitigation remains necessary
and important. Well-recognized, real-time flow forecasting is
an effective nonstructural method for protecting life and prop-
erty in hazardous areas because issuing flood warnings can
provide sufficient time for appropriate action. However, the
catchments in Taiwan usually have a short period between the
onset of a rainstorm and the rise of the hydrograph at the
outlet. This fact increases the difficulty of issuing flood fore-
casts with sufficient lead time. Therefore, extending forecast-
ing lead time is extremely important. One way to extend the
lead time is to forecast future rainfall.
A research group supported by the National Science Council
of the Republic of China is developing inundation maps based
on various 24-h rainfall depths. In the future, when the 24-h
total rainfall depth is forecast, the inundation map correspond-
ing to this forecast quantity can be used for flood issue. Total
rainfall depth can be forecast 24 h ahead in two ways. The
first way is a meteorological method for directly forecasting
total rainfall 24 h ahead. Although the method allows for
longer lead-time forecasting, its accuracy is normally less re-
liable. The second is a hydrological method for forecasting
rainfall 13 h ahead. This forecasting is added to the previous
21-h observed rainfall to give a total of 24-h rainfall. Although
the latter method has only 3 h lead time, it may be
more accurate. Moreover, the rainfall may have normally oc-
curred for a long period before a typhoon with severe rainfall
approaches the island. Therefore, this study considers only the
hydrological method for forecasting total rainfall 13 h
ahead.
Numerous methods have been applied to rainfall forecast-
ing. Georgakakos and Bras (1984a,b) predicted precipitation
rates using meteorological parameters (e.g., surface pressure,
temperature, and dew point temperature). However, such a
model is not always readily available. Nguyen et al. (1978)
and Johnson and Bras (1980) forecasted rainfall by using radar
storm tracking signals. Although this approach has received
1
Prof., Dept. of Hydro. and Oc. Engrg., Nat. Cheng Kung Univ., Tainan
70101, Taiwan.
2
Postdoctoral Res. Fellow, Dept. of Hydro. and Oc. Engrg., Nat. Cheng
Kung Univ., Tainan 70101, Taiwan.
3
Postgrad. Student, Dept. of Hydro. and Oc. Engrg., Nat. Cheng Kung
Univ., Tainan 70101, Taiwan.
Note. Discussion open until March 1, 2001. To extend the closing date
one month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Manager of
Journals. The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and
possible publication on August 26, 1998. This paper is part of the Journal
of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 4, October, 2000. ASCE,
ISSN 1084-0699/00/0004-03390345/$8.00 $.50 per page. Paper No.
19112.
increasing attention, rainfall forecasting using radar data is just
beginning in Taiwan.
Hydrologists commonly apply stochastic methods to rainfall
forecasting using current and past observed rainfall measure-
ments. Burlando et al. (1993) assumed that hourly rainfall fol-
lows an autoregressively moving average process and thereby
forecasted rainfall on this basis. French et al. (1992) developed
a neural computer network to forecast rainfall intensity fields
in space and time. The intensity of rainfall is forecast 1 h in
advance, using only the current field as the input. Large his-
torical storm events are normally combined as data sets for
models in developing and training these kinds of hydrological
methods. The basic assumption in combining historical storm
events as data sets is that each storm event has the same sto-
chastic characteristics. It also is assumed that the event to be
forecast has the same characteristics as the events used for
model development.
This paper presents a gray fuzzy model for rainfall fore-
casting. Gray system theory was originally proposed by Deng
(1989). Because only a small amount of data are needed in
gray system theory, such a model can easily be used in fore-
casting without assuming that storm events to be forecast ex-
hibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events
that were used in developing the model. The model parameters
in the gray model proposed by Deng (1989) were estimated
using the least-squares method. Related investigations have in-
dicated that the fuzzy goal regression method is more suitable
for estimating the parameters of the model when the number
of data is small (Bardossy et al. 1990; Chang et al. 1996).
The fuzzy goal regression method is therefore applied together
with the gray model in forecasting rainfall. This study further
introduces a one-time step forecasting technique to improve
the accuracy of forecasting multiple hours ahead of the
event.
STUDY AREA
Areal rainfall for two subcatchments (San-Hsia and Heng-
Chi) in Tahan creek (one of the tributaries of the Tam-Sui
River) was estimated from four rain gauges (Fig. 1). The areal
rainfall for 10 historical rainfall events (Table 1) was offered
as the data set to develop the model. The first six storm events
were considered for model calibration. The other four storm
events were used for model verification. Because the two sub-
catchments are governed by the same four rain gauges, the
areal rainfall for these two subcatchments lead to similar fore-
casting results. Therefore, only one of two subcatchments was
used to demonstrate the results of the study.
GRAY FUZZY MODEL
Gray Model
The gray model, proposed by Deng (1989), provided an
effective means of predicting the future data using only a small
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000 / 339
 FIG. 1. Location of Study Area

TABLE 1. Ten Storm Events for Model Calibration and Verifi- rainfall records. The discrete forms of X (0)(t) and X (1)(t) are
cation defined, respectively
Duration X (0)(t) = (x (0)(t)), t = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n N (1)
Number Date (h) Remark

t
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1 February 7, 1985 42 Calibration X (1)(t) = AGO X (0)(t) = x (0)(k) , t = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n N
k=1
2 October 3, 1985 33 Calibration (2)
3 August 22, 1986 63 Calibration
4 September 17, 1986 87 Calibration A first-order differential equation is then fitted to the gray
5 September 8, 1987 66 Calibration series, X (1)(t), and is written
6 October 22, 1987 65 Calibration
7 August 18, 1990 53 Verification dX (1)(t)
8 September 6, 1990 49 Verification a X (1)(t) = b (3)
9 August 7, 1994 36 Verification dt
10 July 30, 1996 42 Verification where a and b are known as gray parameters; X (1)(t) =
first-order AGO (1-AGO) series of X (0)(t); and X (0)(t) = raw
amount of past observed data. The raw time series output from data of areal mean rainfall.
an unknown system may be random; however, the degree of The whitening of gray derivatives and gray parameters is
randomness of the raw time series may be reduced after the introduced for identification of (3). According to gray system
repeated application of the accumulated generating operation theory, the whitening of gray derivatives for discrete data with
(AGO) (Deng 1989). Therefore, differential equations can be unit time interval is given by
used to approximate such a regular time series. A once or twice
accumulation of the raw time series is normally enough to
dX (1)(t)
dt
t=k
= lim
t 0
x (1)(k) x (1)(k t)
t
(4a)

support a differential equation.
The gray model is adopted herein for two reasons. First, a dX (1)(t)
= x (1)(k) x (1)(k 1) = X (0)(k) (4b)
rainfall event system is too complex to allow knowledge of dt t=k
when it will occur. Second, when a storm event occurs, rainfall
forecasting using only a few records of past observed rainfall Defining a new variable Z (1)(k), which is the whitening value
may be required. Therefore, the gray system proposed by Deng of X (1)(t) t =k , can be expressed
is quite appropriate for the present system of forecasting rain- X (1)(t) t=k Z (1)(k) = [x (1)(k) x (1)(k 1)], k = 2, 3, . . . , n
fall. (5)
The GM(1, 1) is one of the gray differential equations and
has been successfully applied in previous research (Deng in which = 0.5 in the present study. By substituting (4) and
1989; Xia 1989; Huang and Huang 1996). The description of (5) into (3) and writing the equation in a discrete differential
the gray model is summarized as follows. form, one obtains
Given the raw data X (0)(t) = [x (0)(1), x (0)(2), . . . , x(0)(k), . . . , X (0)(k) a Z (1)(k) = b , k = 2, 3, . . . , n (6)
x (n)], where x (0)(k) is the kth rainfall record, which can be
(0)

either hourly rainfall intensity or accumulated rainfall depth The matrix form of (6) is expressed
(this depending on which rainfall hyetograph or rainfall mass
Y = U (7)
curve is the forecast objective), a new time series, X (1)(t) =
[x (1)(1), x (1)(2), . . . , x (1)(k), . . . , x (1)(n)], is then generated in where = parameter vector; = model residual vector; and
terms of the AGO (i.e., X (1)(t ) = AGO X (0)(t ) from the raw in which
340 / JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000

x (0)(2) z (1)(2) 1 In the fuzzy goal regression algorithm, the linear regression
x (0)(3) z (1)(3) 1 model (Yi = ai xi i ) for each set of independent variables
Y= x (0)(4) ; U= z (1)(4) 1 (8a,b)
x (0)(n) z (1)(n) 1 the fuzzy parameter ai to achieve the goal that the predicted
(2)
(3)
a
= ; = (4) (8c,d )
b
(n)
Because Y and U are given above as the whitening matrices,
the whitening value of the gray parameter vector can be
identified by the least-squares method and shown
=
b
a
= (U TU )1U T Y
where a and
b = identified whitening values of a and
b , respectively.
After the whitening values of the gray parameters are iden-
tified, the whitening discrete form of (3) is given by
c e a k
x (1)(k 1) = d (10)
in which c = x (0)(1) d and
d = (
b /
a ).
Thus, by applying the inverse AGO approach, the predicted
rainfall x (1) t=k1 is given by
x (0)(k 1) = x (1)(k 1) x (1)(k), k = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n N
where X (1) = 1-AGO series of forecasted rainfall.
In this study the parameters in the differential equation
[(10)] can be updated immediately when the new rainfall data
is obtained.
Fuzzy Goal Regression Model
The statistical regression analysis (least-squares method) ap-
plied in estimating the model parameters in (9) may require
data from a large sample to ensure accuracy. However, only a
few data points are utilized in the gray model. In such a case,
fuzzy regression, as developed by Tanaka et al. (1982) and
Tanaka and Asia (1984), may be useful because it is useful
whenever the relationship between variables is imprecise and
/or data are inaccurate and/or the sample size is insufficient
(Bardossy et al. 1990).
Chang et al. (1996) found that the accuracy of prediction
by fuzzy linear regression cannot always be proved to be better
than that obtained by conventional least-squares regression,
despite fuzzy regression allowing expert knowledge or fuzzy
information to be included in the model in advance. Therefore,
Chang et al. (1996) modified the fuzzy linear regression and
proposed the fuzzy goal regression (Chang and Lu 1997),
which is a simpler algorithm and generally exhibits a better
prediction accuracy than fuzzy linear regression and conven-
tional least-squares regression. Therefore, the fuzzy goal re-
gression method (Chang et al. 1996, 1997) is adopted to re-
place the least-squares method for parameter estimation in the
gray model in (9).
Chang et al. (1996) gave a detailed description on the rain-
fall of the fuzzy goal regression. Only a brief abstract is given
here. The fuzzy regression structure focuses on finding a set
of fuzzy parameters to achieve a specific mapping between the
explanatory variables (independent variables) and the ex-
plained variable (dependent variable). A linear programming
model subject to the minimum required degree of fitting on
each observation must be built up to meet the target of mini-
mum vagueness in the mapping process.
Xi and dependent variables Yi is viewed as a linear function to
approximate a target value Yi . Fuzzy goal regression solves for
value Y i = ai xi approximately approaches the target value Yi.
For a set of n observations, one has n fuzzy goals to be han-
dled in the fuzzy goal programming model. The problem
therefore can be stated as a maximization process for the min-
imum degree of fitting for the goal constraints, which are ar-
ranged
Maximize
n
(hi1 hi2 ) (12)
(9)
subject to
i=1
ai xi h i1 ei Yi ei , i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n (13)
i
ai xi h i2 ei Yi ei , i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n (14)
i
0 hi1 , hi2 1 (15)
in which the fuzzy parameters ai and the degree of fitting
hij = decision variables. A linear regression model with only
one independent variable (i.e., Y = a1 a2 x ) is considered
in the gray model of this study.
Two membership functions, hi1 and hi2 , as shown in Fig. 2,
(11) are used to meet the goal constraint specified in (13)(15). The
left-hand side is the nonincreasing membership function that
determines the first goal constraint in (13). The right-hand side
is a nondecreasing membership function arranged to illustrate
the second goal constraint specified in (14). Chang et al. (1996,
1997) provided a detailed description of these two membership
functions. The exact degree of fitting can be defined
h i1 h i2 (Y ) = min[h i1(Y ), h i2(Y )] (16)
The vagueness term ei can be determined before the regres-
sion analysis is performed. The value of ei could be assumed
to be a reasonable proportion of the observed value of Yi ac-
cording to the sample distribution. The value of ei is the range
of predicted values that can be assigned as CYi , where C is
the real value. Chang et al. (1996) suggested that the value of
ei is equal to the observed value Yi (i.e., C = 1). However, the
value of C in this study is decided by using the trial-and-error
method to optimize model forecasting.
One-Time Step Forecasting Technique
The accuracy of 1-h advance rainfall forecasting was found
to be reasonable using the gray model, according to the initial
study (Chen and Yu 1997). However, the accuracy of rainfall
forecasting falls when lead time is increased because the fore-
cast error will be accumulated from previous lead-time fore-
casting. One-time step ahead forecasting was proposed in this
FIG. 2. Memberships in Fuzzy Goal Regression (Chang et al.
(1996)
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000 / 341
 FIG. 3. Procedures of One-Time Step Forecasting Technique

TABLE 2. Optimal C Value in Fuzzy Goal Regression TABLE 3. Results of Rainfall Forecasting Model Performance
Storm Event Storm ECR
Forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 event (%) CE RMSE CC
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

1 h ahead 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 (a) 1-h Lead Time
2 h ahead 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 1 0.29 0.98 0.05 1.00
3 h ahead 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 2 3.50 0.99 0.04 1.00
3 3.52 0.96 0.05 1.00
4 0.63 1.00 0.03 1.00
study to overcome this shortcoming. However, the time interval 5 1.27 0.89 0.14 1.00
of one-time step is variable, which corresponds to the lead time 6 2.41 1.00 0.04 1.00
to be forecast; i.e., a 2-h time interval (one-time step) is used in 7 1.63 0.97 0.08 1.00
the gray fuzzy model when the model will forecast rainfall 2 h 8 0.86 0.99 0.04 1.00
ahead. Fig. 3 describes the procedures of the one-time step fore- 9 1.49 0.88 0.14 0.99
casting technique. For example, if the model is to be forecast 2 10 1.48 0.99 0.05 1.00
h in advance of the rainfall at 9 oclock, the first gray fuzzy (b) 2-h Lead Time
model is created to forecast cumulative rainfall depth at 11 1 2.26 0.87 0.07 1.00
oclock using the observed accumulated rainfall depths (i.e., mass 2 4.08 0.94 0.11 1.00
curve) at 3, 5, 7, and 9 oclock (shown with the symbol in 3 8.53 0.55 0.18 0.99
Fig. 3). Next, the second gray fuzzy model is further constructed 4 2.77 0.98 0.10 1.00
to forecast cumulative rainfall depth at 10 oclock using the ob- 5 8.77 0.60 0.31 0.98
served accumulated rainfall depths at 2, 4, 6, and 8 oclock 6 7.18 0.98 0.10 1.00
(shown with the symbol in Fig. 3). The 2-h in-advance-of- 7 1.95 0.79 0.18 0.99
rainfall forecasting at 9 oclock (i.e., from 10 to 11 oclock) can 8 3.49 0.89 0.06 1.00
be assessed from the above-mentioned two gray models (i.e., the 9 5.48 0.26 0.32 0.97
difference between the forecasted accumulative rainfall at 11 and 10 3.07 0.95 0.15 1.00
10 oclock). Therefore, the first 2-h in-advance-of-rainfall fore- (c) 3-h Lead Time
casting only begins at 9 oclock after four 2-h interval rainfall
1 5.45 0.64 0.13 0.99
records have been obtained. To reduce the period required for
2 4.21 0.86 0.16 1.00
issuing the first 2-h ahead forecasting, a random synthetic rainfall
3 6.21 0.85 0.09 0.98
sequence before the rainfall event is generated according to the
4 4.90 0.95 0.18 1.00
observed rainfall records. The same procedures are carried out 5 7.65 0.16 0.40 0.96
for 3-h in-advance-of-rainfall forecasting. 6 11.88 0.95 0.13 1.00
7 0.72 0.46 0.25 0.98
Criteria for Judging Model Performance 8 2.86 0.76 0.10 0.99
9 3.29 0.75 0.44 0.95
Four criteria, which are commonly used to judge a model 10 5.41 0.83 0.22 0.99
performance, were employed in this study:
342 / JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000

1. Percentage error in total accumulative rainfall (ECR) n

t )/RAt ]2
[(RAt RA

n n t=1
RMSE = (18)
t
R Rt n

t=1 t=1
ECR(%) = n 100(%) (17) 3. Coefficient of efficiency (CE)

Rt n
t=1
t )2
(RAt RA

t=1
CE = 1 (19)
where R t = predicted rainfall at time t; Rt = observed
n

t )2
(RAt nRA
rainfall at time t; and n = number of time steps to be
t=1
estimated.
2. Relative root mean square error (RMSE) = predicted accumulative rainfall at time t;
where RAt

FIG. 4. Comparison between Observed and Forecasted Hyetograph and Mass Curve Rainfall Forecasting for Event 30/07/96 (Best
Result)

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000 / 343

 t
RAt = observed accumulative rainfall at time t; and RA of predicted accumulative rainfall depth in Criteria 1 and 2
= average of observed accumulative rainfall at time t. directly represent a quantitative judgment of model perfor-
4. Coefficient of correlation (CC) mance. The coefficient of efficiency in Criterion 3 effectively

rates the performance of the model with an assumed scenario,

n

t )(RA
(RAt RA t )
t RA in which the average of observed accumulative rainfall is al-
t=1 ways taken as the predicted value. The qualitative judgment

CC = n n
(20)
of model performance is made according to Criterion 4 in
t)
(RAt RA 2
(RA t )2
t RA terms of the correlative relationship between predicted and ob-
t=1 t=1
served accumulative rainfall.

where RA t = mean value of predicted accumulative rain-
t = mean value of observed accu-
fall at time t; and RA RESULTS
mulative rainfall at time t. Chen and Yu (1997) and Chen (1988) separately considered
the performance of the gray model, using both the rainfall
The four criteria represent the model performance from dif- mass curve and the rainfall hyetograph as forecasting objec-
ferent points of view. The error percentage and standard error tives. Their studies disclosed that the gray model performs

FIG. 5. Comparison between Observed and Forecasted Hyetograph and Mass Curve Rainfall Forecasting for Event 07/08/94 (Worst
Result)

344 / JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 2000

better when the rainfall mass curve is accepted as a forecasting
objective. This phenomenon follows from the fact that the
rainfall mass curve represents the accumulation of rainfall hy-
etograph and has more regularity than the rainfall hyetograph.
The gray model can well simulate the data with regularity.
Hence, the rainfall mass curve is preferred over the rainfall
hyetograph as a forecasting objective of the gray fuzzy model
in this study.
The C value (as listed in Table 2) in the fuzzy goal regres-
sion method for six storm events was calibrated by using a
trial-and-error method to optimize the model forecasting. The
values have very stable ranges from 0.1 to 0.3. For the sake
of simplicity, the average C value equal to 0.2 was adopted in
the model for rainfall forecasting. The calibration results in the
first six storm events of Table 3 disclose that a value of C
equal to 0.2 is reasonable. To further verify the performance
of the gray fuzzy rainfall model, four storm events excluded
from model calibration events were used in 13 h advance
rainfall forecasting.
The results of the rainfall forecasting for four verification
storm events (Table 3) indicate that the model can forecast the
rainfall mass curve 13 h ahead, although the ninth storm
event has a negative coefficient of efficiency for forecasting 3
h in advance. The reason for poor forecasting of the ninth
storm may be caused by the rainfall hyetograph pattern having
a sudden drop, which cannot be well forecast. In Table 3, the
(ECRs) for four verification storm events are <6.0%. However,
the RMSE may provide more important information because
it is the ratio of the difference between forecasted and ob-
served accumulative rainfall to observed accumulative rainfall
at each time step. Table 3 shows that the average error ratio
of forecasted accumulative rainfall for 1-h lead time to ob-
served rainfall is <0.15. The error will be increased when the
lead time is increased. This is a reasonable performance for a
forecasting model. The CC of close to 1 in Table 3 means that
the forecasted cumulative rainfall corresponds closely with the
observed accumulative rainfall. The best and worst rainfall
mass curve forcasting is further indicated on the right side of
Figs. 4 and 5, with results in four verification storm events.
One may conclude from the results in Table 3 and Figs. 4 and
5 that the gray fuzzy rainfall model is well capable of rainfall
mass curve forecasting. The forecasted hyetographs inverted
from the rainfall mass curves also are displayed on the left
side of Figs. 4 and 5. The figures imply that the method
proposed in this study supports reasonable hyetograph fore-
casting.
CONCLUSIONS
Flood and debris flow caused by heavy rainfall are serious
natural hazards in Taiwan. The steep slopes, shortness of
creeks, as well as the fast rainfall-runoff process have made
necessary the development of a rainfall forecasting model.
Rainfall forecasting can extend the lead time for issuing dis-
aster warnings and allow sufficient time for people in hazard-
ous areas to take appropriate action. This work has proposed
a gray fuzzy model for 13 h advance rainfall forecasting.
The model exhibits the advantage of requiring a small amount
of data. Normally, four past data events are enough to develop
a model.
The gray fuzzy model shows good results for 1-h advance
forecasts. The study found that the one-time step forecasting
technique could improve the forecasting ability for 2 and 3 h
lead time. Ten storm events for model calibration and verifi-
cation supported the conclusion that either the rainfall mass
curve (accumulated rainfall) or hyetograph (hourly intensity)
can be well forecast by the gray fuzzy model with the one-
time step forecasting technique.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The writers would like to thank the National Science Council of the
Republic of China for financially supporting this research under contract
No. NSC87-2621-p006-027.
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