Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.9580652366
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.9178889975
R^2 ajustado 0.9042038305
Error tpico 414.5033124497
Observaciones 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresin 1 11523809.52381 11523809.52381
Residuos 6 1030877.97619 171812.9960317
Total 7 12554687.5

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t

Intercepcin 18438.98809524 440.8087078775 41.8299089054
Variable X 1 523.8095238095 63.9592496814 8.1897384103
 F Valor crtico de F
67.0718152292 0.0001786086

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

1.2487616E-008 17360.36804384 19517.60814663 17360.36804384 19517.60814663
0.0001786086 367.3068777738 680.3121698452 367.3068777738 680.3121698452
 Forecast - Estatico

Historical Data

Demanda Demanda Estimada Estacionalidad Estacionalidad

Real lineal Promedio Promedio 4 periodos

Deseasonalized
Period Demand Demand Seasonal Factor Estimate
Dt Dt Si
t St
1 8,000 18,963 0.42 0.47
2 13,000 19,487 0.67 0.68
3 23,000 20,010 1.15 1.17
4 34,000 20,534 1.66 1.66
5 10,000 21,058 0.47
6 18,000 21,582 0.83
7 23,000 22,106 1.04
8 38,000 22,629 1.68
9 12,000 23,153 0.52
10 13,000 23,677 0.55
11 32,000 24,201 1.32
12 41,000 24,725 1.66

Forecasted Data

Period Forecasted Demand

Year, Qtr t Ft 1
03,2 13 F
11,867
03,3 14 17,525
t 1

03,4 15 30,766
Ft 1

Ft 1

04,1 16 44,521
 Forecast - Estatico

Forecast
8,913
13,251
23,412
34,087
9,897
14,676
25,864
37,565
10,882
16,100
28,315
41,043
Period Demand Error
Dt Lt Ft Error MSE
ABS
MAD % Error
t
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000 19,500
5 10,000 20,000 19,500 9500 90250000 9500 9500 95.00
6 18,000 21,250 20,000 2000 47125000 2000 5750 11.11
7 23,000 21,250 21,250 -1750 32437500 1750 4417 7.61
8 38,000 22,250 21,250 -16750 94468750 16750 7500 44.08
9 12,000 22,750 22,250 10250 96587500 10250 8050 85.42
10 13,000 21,500 22,750 9750 96333333 9750 8333 75.00
11 32,000 23,750 21,500 -10500 98321429 10500 8643 32.81
12 41,000 24,500 23,750 -17250 123226563 17250 9719 42.07
13 ? 24,500
MAPE TS Integrantes:
Christian Samaniego
Washington Ortiz
Antonio Parra
Pedro Noboa
Esteban Tapia
95.00 1.00
53.06 2.00
37.91 2.21
39.45 -0.93
48.64 0.40
53.04 1.56
50.15 0.29
49.14 -1.52
Period Demand Error
Dt Lt Ft Error MSE
ABS
MAD
t
0 Lo 22,083
1 8,000 20,675 22,083 14083.33 198340278 14083 14083
2 13,000 19,908 20,675 7675.00 128622951 7675 10879
3 23,000 20,217 19,908 -3092.50 88936486 3093 8284
4 34,000 21,595 20,217 -13783.25 114196860 13783 9659
5 10,000 20,436 21,595 11595.08 118246641 11595 10046
6 18,000 20,192 20,436 2435.57 99527532 2436 8777
7 23,000 20,473 20,192 -2807.99 86435714 2808 7925
8 38,000 22,226 20,473 -17527.19 114031550 17527 9125
9 12,000 21,203 22,226 10225.53 112979315 10226 9247
10 13,000 20,383 21,203 8202.98 108410265 8203 9143
11 32,000 21,544 20,383 -11617.32 110824074 11617 9368
12 41,000 23,490 21,544 -19455.59 133132065 19456 10208
13 ? 23,490

0.1
% Error MAPE TS Integrantes:
Christian Samaniego
176.04 176.04 1.00 Washington Ortiz
59.04 117.54 2.00 Antonio Parra
13.45 82.84 2.25 Pedro Noboa
40.54 72.27 0.51 Esteban Tapia
115.95 81.00 1.64
13.53 69.76 2.15
12.21 61.54 2.03
46.12 59.61 -0.16
85.21 62.45 0.95
63.10 62.52 1.86
36.30 60.14 0.58
47.45 59.08 -1.38
 Holit's

Period Demand Error

Dt Lt Tt Ft Error MSE MAD
t ABS
0 12015 1549
1 8000 13008 1438 13564 5,564 30,959,237 5,564 5,564
2 13000 14301 1409 14445 1,445 16,524,153 1,445 3,505
3 23000 16439 1555 15710 -7,290 28,732,810 7,290 4,767
4 34000 19594 1875 17993 -16,007 85,604,033 16,007 7,577
5 10000 20322 1645 21469 11,469 94,788,912 11,469 8,355
6 18000 21570 1566 21967 3,967 81,613,688 3,967 7,624
7 23000 23123 1563 23136 136 69,957,246 136 6,554
8 38000 26017 1830 24686 -13,314 83,370,484 13,314 7,399
9 12000 26262 1513 27847 15,847 102,009,888 15,847 8,338
10 13000 26297 1217 27775 14,775 113,638,498 14,775 8,981
11 32000 27963 1307 27514 -4,486 105,136,815 4,486 8,573
12 41000 30443 1541 29270 -11,730 107,841,792 11,730 8,836
13 31984
14 33526
15 35067
16 36609

0.1
0.2
 Holit's

% Error MAPE TS Integrantes:

Resumen
Christian Samaniego
69.55 69.55 1.00 Washington Ortiz
11.12 40.33 2.00 Antonio Parra Estadsticas de la regresi
31.70 37.46 -0.06 Pedro Noboa Coeficiente de correlaci
47.08 39.86 -2.15 Esteban Tapia Coeficiente de determi
114.69 54.83 -0.58 R^2 ajustado
22.04 49.36 -0.11 Error tpico
0.59 42.39 -0.11 Observaciones
35.04 41.48 -1.90
132.06 51.54 0.22 ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
113.65 57.75 1.85
14.02 53.78 1.41 Regresin
28.61 51.68 0.04 Residuos
Total

Lo Intercepcin
To Variable X 1
 Holit's

dsticas de la regresin
0.4813271965
0.2316758701
0.1548434571
10666.8833748383
12

VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma dePromedio
cuadrados
de los cuadrados
F Valor crtico de F
1 657 657 3.0153403 0.113127
10 1.14E+009 401
11 1.48E+009

Coeficientes Error tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%

Superior 95%
12015.1515151515 6565.0129 1.8301794 0.0971473 -2612.609 26642.912
1548.9510489511 892.0096 1.7364735 0.113127 -438.5702 3536.4723
 Holit's

Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
-2612.609 26642.912
-438.5702 3536.4723
Historical Data
Estacionalidad
Demanda Estacionalidad
Demanda Real Promedio 4
Estimada lineal Promedio
periodos
Deseasonalized
Period Demand Demand Seasonal Factor Estimate Lt
t Dt Dt Si
St
0 18439
1 8,000 18,963 0.42 0.47 18866
2 13,000 19,487 0.67 0.68 19367
3 23,000 20,010 1.15 1.17 19869
4 34,000 20,534 1.66 1.66 20380
5 10,000 21,058 0.47 20921
6 18,000 21,582 0.83 21689
7 23,000 22,106 1.04 22102
8 38,000 22,629 1.68 22636
9 12,000 23,153 0.52 23291
10 13,000 23,677 0.55 23577
11 32,000 24,201 1.32 24271
12 41,000 24,725 1.66 24791
13
14
15
16

0.05
0.10
0.10

Forecasted Data
Forecasted
Period Demand
Year, Qtr t Ft 1
03,2 13 Ft 1
17,613
03,3 14 Ft 1
30,785
03,4 15 Ft 1
44,640
04,1 16 0
 Ft

Error
Tt St Forecast Error MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
ABS

524
514 0.47 8,913 913 832857 913 913 11.41 11.41 1.00
513 0.68 13,179 179 432367 179 546 1.37 6.39 2.00
512 1.17 23,260 260 310720 260 450 1.13 4.64 3.00
512 1.67 34,036 36 233364 36 347 0.11 3.50 4.00
515 0.47 9,723 -277 202036 277 333 2.77 3.36 3.34
540 0.68 14,558 -3,442 2143255 3442 851 19.12 5.98 -2.74
527 1.17 25,981 2,981 3106508 2981 1155 12.96 6.98 0.56
528 1.67 37,787 -213 2723856 213 1037 0.56 6.18 0.42
541 0.47 10,810 -1,190 2578653 1190 1054 9.92 6.59 -0.72
515 0.69 16,544 3,544 3576894 3544 1303 27.26 8.66 2.14
533 1.16 27,849 -4,151 4818258 4151 1562 12.97 9.05 -0.87
532 1.67 41,442 442 4432987 442 1469 1.08 8.39 -0.63
0.47 11,940
0.68 17,579
1.17 30,930
1.67 44,928
Integrantes:
Resumen

Christian Samaniego

Washington Ortiz
Antonio Parra Estadsticas de la regresin
Pedro Noboa Coeficiente de co 0.96
Esteban Tapia Coeficiente de d 0.92
R^2 ajustado 0.90
Error tpico 414.50
Observaciones 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Regresin 1 11523809.5238
Residuos 6 1030877.97619
Total 7 12554687.5

Coeficientes Error tpico

Lo Intercepcin 18439 440.808707878
To Variable X 1 524 63.9592496814
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crtico de F
11523809.5238 67.0718152292 0.0001786086
171812.996032

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
41.8299089054 1.248762E-008 17360.3680438 19517.6081466 17360.3680438 19517.6081466
8.1897384103 0.0001786086 367.306877774 680.312169845 367.306877774 680.312169845
Resumen MAD MAPE Ts - Min Ts - Max +/- 6
Forecast - Esttico 1361 7.77 -2.08 4.42 ok
Moving 9719 49.14 -1.52 2.21 ok
Exponential 10208 59.08 -1.38 2.25 ok
Holit's 8,836 51.68 -2.15 2.00 ok
Winter's 1469 8.39 -2.74 4.00 ok

Anlisis

De los resultados obtenidos; podemos verificar que los mtodos analizados, se obtien
aproximaciones para los modelos Forecast-Esttico y Winter's.

Tomando en consideracin, que el modelo Winter's es dinmico; se elegira como me

para realizar el pronostico de la demanda.
 Anlisis MAPE Anlisis MAD Integrantes:
bajo bajo Christian Samaniego
valor alto valor alto Washington Ortiz
valor alto valor alto Antonio Parra
valor alto valor alto Pedro Noboa
bajo bajo Esteban Tapia

mtodos analizados, se obtienen mejores

ecast-Esttico y Winter's.

dinmico; se elegira como mejor mtodo

de la demanda.