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Abstract
This article considers the implications for prevention science of recent advances in research on family poverty and
children's mental, emotional, and behavioral health. First, we describe definitions of poverty and the conceptual and
empirical challenges to estimating the causal effects of poverty on children's mental, emotional, and behavioral
health. Second, we offer a conceptual framework that incorporates selection processes that affect who becomes poor
as well as mechanisms through which poverty appears to influence child and youth mental health. Third, we use this
conceptual framework to selectively review the growing literatures on the mechanisms through which family poverty
influences the mental, emotional, and behavioral health of children. We illustrate how a better understanding of the
mechanisms of effect by which poverty impacts children's mental, emotional, and behavioral health is valuable in
designing effective preventive interventions for those in poverty. Fourth, we describe strategies to directly reduce
poverty and the implications of these strategies for prevention. This article is one of three in a special section (see
also Biglan, Flay, Embry, & Sandler, 2012; Muoz, Beardslee, & Leykin, 2012) representing an elaboration on a
theme for prevention science developed by the 2009 report of the National Research Council and Institute of
Medicine.
Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment.
Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal
ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner.
Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate
change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer,
more intense heat waves.
According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will
vary over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to
mitigate or adapt to change.
The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4
degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce
beneficial impacts in some regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will
increase over time as global temperatures increase.
"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of published evidence indicates that
the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase
over time."1
Future effects
Some of the long-term effects of global climate change in the United States are as
follows, according to the Third National Climate Assessment Report:
Change will continue through this century and
beyond
Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The
magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the
amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally, and how sensitive the Earths
climate is to those emissions.
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Temperatures will continue to rise
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Frost-free season (and growing season) will
lengthen
The length of the frost-free season (and the corresponding growing season) has
been increasing nationally since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in
the western United States, affecting ecosystems and agriculture. Across the United
States, the growing season is projected to continue to lengthen.
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Changes in precipitation patterns
Average U.S. precipitation has increased since 1900, but some areas have had
increases greater than the national average, and some areas have had decreases.
More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and
less for the Southwest, over this century.
Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend towards
increased heavy precipitation events will continue. This trend is projected to occur
even in regions where total precipitation is expected to decrease, such as the
Southwest.
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More droughts and heat waves
Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather
lasting days to weeks) everywhere are projected to become more intense, and cold
waves less intense everywhere.
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The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the
frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since
the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these
increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates
are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.
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Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in
1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. This is the result of added
water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms.
In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea
level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many of these regions.
Sea level rise will not stop in 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to
respond to warmer conditions at the Earths surface. Ocean waters will therefore
continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal
to or higher than that of the current century.
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Arctic likely to become ice-free
The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-
century.
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U.S. regional effects
Below are some of the impacts that are currently visible throughout the U.S. and will
continue to affect these regions, according to the Third National Climate Assessment
Report , released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program:
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Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise pose growing
challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture,
fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Many states and cities
are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.
Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the regions
economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture and
more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.
Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will affect infrastructure,
health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate
change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes.
Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate
change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural
yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas
are additional concerns.
1. IPCC 2007, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 17.
Credit: VladisChern/Shutterstock.com
So, the Earth's average temperature has increased about 1 degree Fahrenheit
during the 20th century. What's the big deal?
One degree may sound like a small amount, but it's an unusual event in our planet's
recent history. Earth's climate record, preserved in tree rings, ice cores, and coral
reefs, shows that the global average temperature is stable over long periods of time.
Furthermore, small changes in temperature correspond to enormous changes in the
environment.
For example, at the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was
covered by more than 3,000 feet of ice, average temperatures were only 5 to 9
degrees cooler than today.
The IPCC's 2014 report on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Latest resources
Learn more from TNC's leaders about how we're meeting the challenges of a
changing planet.
Read our Science Blog to find out what's emerging in the world of conservation
science around climate change.
Higher Temperatures
Earths temperatures in 2015 were the hottest ever recorded (source: NASA). Why
does this matter? Because a change of even 1 degree Fahrenheit which may
sound small can upset the delicate balance of ecosystems, and affect plants and
animals that inhabit them.
Learn More: See how we're using forest conservation to directly lower
carbon emissions and combat climate change.
Changing Landscapes and Wildlife Habitat
Learn more about how research on migration routes can provide guidance
on land conservation.
Rising Seas
As ocean waters warm, they expand, causing sea-levels to rise. Melting glaciers
compound the problem by dumping even more fresh water into the oceans. Rising
seas threaten to inundate low-lying areas and islands, threaten dense coastal
populations, erode shorelines, damage property and destroy ecosystems such as
mangroves and wetlands that protect coasts against storms.
Climate change is intensifying drought, storms, and floods around the world. Where
nature has been destroyed by development, communities are at risk from these
intensified climate patterns. Scientists around the world are studying how nature
can be a buffer for these intensified weather patterns, and TNC is working with
leaders and communities to implement solutions that make a difference for nature
and people.
In the U.S. alone, half of its residents live within 50 miles of the coast. Worldwide,
approximately 100 million people live within three feet of sea level. Sea level rise
associated with climate change could displace tens of millions of people in low-lying
areas especially in developing countries. Inhabitants of some small island
countries that rest barely above the existing sea level are already abandoning their
islands, some of the worlds first climate change refugees. In fact, in May 2016, the
residents of Isle de Jean Charles were given $48 million to move the first U.S.-
based climate refugees.
Learn more about how we're restoring natural systems on our coasts, like
the coral reef restoration work being done in Florida, that help absorb the
effects of climate change and protect coastal communities.
Economic Impact
The true economic impact of climate change is hard to predict. But its safe to say
that many key economic sectors from fishing to energy to water utilities will feel
long-term impacts of climate change. From warming seas, which encourage
proliferation of non-native species that impact fishing industries, to rising
temperatures, which impact energy usage around the world, our shifting global
climate will force many industries to move quickly to adapt to change. Even
recreation and tourism industries are weather-dependent with many planning
based on historic weather patterns, which climate change will disrupt. As we move
into an era in which climate change impacts are all around us, adapting to these
changes quickly will be key for all sectors of the global economy.
Because there are so many impacts of climate change, scientists have broadly
categorized them into three areas:
This atmospheric heating unleashes a torrent of rapid changes to the way water
systems typically function on our planet.
For example:
As climatic patterns rapidly shift, habitats on land and in the sea are changing, making
them inhospitable for some species, while letting others move in and take over. In some
cases, entire ecosystems are at risk of collapsing.
The changes to the natural world are vast, but here are three notable and well-
documented examples.
Coral and shellfish are suffering: Coral reefs are highly sensitive to small
changes in ocean temperatures. The heat stresses the algae that nourish the corals
and provide their vibrant colors. The algae then leave, and the corals eventually
starve, an event known as bleaching. Also, a more acidic ocean affects the normal
calcium balance, meaning creatures with calcified shells, such as shellfish and coral,
may not have enough calcium to grow.
Our Arctic creatures need ice, but it's vanishing:As sea ice disappears, ice-
dependent mammals like walruses and polar bears struggle to survive. In 2008, the
polar bear became the first animal to be added to the Endangered Species Act list of
threatened species because of global warming.
Human life is thrown out of balance, too. One of the biggest impacts? Where, how and
when we grow food, which is vitally connected to our climate's normal patterns.
More extreme weather also means we face increased pressure on our health,
infrastructure, and economy.
If we don't rein in heat-trapping emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation
now, these impacts will only intensify. You can help by supporting measures to make
polluters reduce climate emissions. We'll tell you when your voice is needed. (Read
our privacy policy.)