Continental J.

Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

©Wilolud Journals, 2010.

foF 2 VARIABILITY AND IRI MODEL FOR AN EQUATORIAL STATION DURING LOW AND HIGH
SOLAR ACTIVITY PERIODS.

Nzekwe N. M1,2 , Joshua E. O1 and Imafidon L. O3

1
Physics Department, University of Ibadan, Ibadanm Oyo State, Nigeria.2,3 Physical Science Department, Yaba
College of Technology, Lagos State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT
The critical frequency of the F2, Layer ( foF 2 ) of the ionosphere for an equatorial station,
Ouagadougou Burkina Faso (geomag. Lat. 16.40, geomag. Long. 71.10, dip 1.50W) obtained
from an ionosonde measurements were compared with those of IRI-2001 model predictions.
The radio International Telecommunication Union (ITU-R), option of the IRI model values
showed much agreement with foF 2 data during low solar activity periods at all times of the
day. For high solar activity periods (of 1989 and 1990) slight disparities occurred at 10 to 24
LT. The interquartile deviations from the median and standard deviations from the mean were
employed for the determination of the variability parameter for the station. The data sets of
foF 2 were found close to a normal distribution, hence the standard deviation from the mean
about the observed foF 2 was used as a fairly good index to describe the variability of this
ionospheric parameter. Some of the present results of this work are in agreement with other
works carried out at the same and different equatorial stations.

KEYWORDS: Variability, equatorial ionosphere, ionosonde data, solar activity

INTRODUCTION
The ionosphere exerts a great influence on the propagation of radio signals. Transmitted signals to the
ionosphere are refracted and sent back to the Earth, making it possible for radio reception at different distances for
waves traveling along the surface of the Earth. The amount of refraction in the ionosphere decreases with an
increase in frequency and for a very high frequency is almost nonexistent. These frequencies are properly defined by
the critical frequencies of the various layers. In radio propagation by way of the ionosphere, the critical frequency
(fo) at the vertical incidence is the limiting frequency at or below which incidence, the wave component is reflected
by and above which it penetrates through an ionospheric layer.

The ionosphere affects our modern society in many ways. International broadcasters such as the voice of American
(VOA) and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) still use the ionosphere to reflect radio signals back toward
the Earth so that their entertainment and information programmes can be heard around the world. The ionosphere
provides long range capabilities for commercial ship to-shore communications, trans-oceanic air craft and
surveillance systems. The sun has a dominant effect on the ionosphere and solar events such as flares or coronal
mass ejections can lead to worldwide communication “blackouts” on the short wave bands.
Furthermore, the ionosphere has exerted a great deal of significances in modern day academic researches such as
explaining the reasons for the global reduction in the height of the atmosphere, possibility and evidence for an
additional F3 layer in the ionosphere [Balan et al., 1998] space modeling, predictions and so on.

The IRI and the variations of foF 2

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is one of the most widely used empirical models [Rawer and Bilitza,
1989, 1990]. Several authors [Alazo et al., 2003; Lazo et al., 2003; Mosert et al., 2003, Adeniyi and Radicella,
2003] have estimated and analyzed the deviations from the monthly mean for specified conditions to model the
variability of foF 2 .

Studies on the subject of ionospheres variability vary from those that analyze specific parameters on a large
geographical area to those that are limited to a few stations or to one station. Such studies for example include those

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

of [kouris and Fotiadis., 2002; Gulyaeva et al., 1998; Leitinger and Hochegger, 1999; Gulyaeva and Mahajam,
2001; Rawer et al., 2003; Sethi et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004 and Gordienko et al., 2005]. Various variability
indices have been adopted in the study of the variability of foF 2 , common methods adopted in the references cited
above are quartile deviation from median and standard deviations from mean. Bilititza et al. [2004], indicated that
standard deviation from mean is a good measure for describing variability but difficult to interpret, since one may
not be sure that the distribution of the data is Gaussian.

Davis and Groome, [1964] provided values of the fractional decile deviations of foF 2 from its monthly median
values, based on measurements for the American longitudinal chain. Further regional and global statistical
variability analyses were reported by [Sowers and Pokempner, 1989], physical sources of variability have been
examined by [Forbes et al., 2000] and by [Rishbeth and Mendillo, 2001]. Day to day changes in experimental
electron density and variability of the IRI electron density profile have being examined by [Amarante et al., 2004;
Bradley 2000; Bradley and Cander, 2002; Bradley et al 2004; Mikhailov and Mikhailov, 1995]. [Radicella, 2002,
2003], used vertical incidence measurement of data from a range of different stations at various locations, including
low latitudes to establish the form of variations in foF 2 .

Dependence of Critical Frequency on Maximum Electron Density

The critical frequency fo of an Ionospheric layer is related to the maximum electron density in an Ionospheric layer
by;
f o ≅ 9 N max ……………………………………………… (1)

Where Nmax is the maximum electron density of an Ionospheric layer.

Data and method of Analysis

The parameter used for this study is foF 2 . The data is from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (Geo lat. 12.40N, Geo
long. 1.50W; Dip 5.90). All the available data for 1986 and 1987 periods of low solar activity, 1989 and 1990 periods
of high solar activity were used for the analysis. The monthly hourly average for each month of the year was
calculated for the 24 hours. These were used as the observed foF 2 data. From the monthly hourly averages the
upper (75 %), median (50 %) and lower (25 %) quartiles were obtained. Hence the monthly variability for the
representative months of the various seasons was obtained, based on the IRI recommendations. The use of relative
inter-quartile range and standard deviation gave the measure of variability, v as
Q3 − Q1
v1 = ( *100)% ……………………………………… (2).
Q2

σ1
and, v2 = ( * 100)% ………………. ……………………… (3)
µ
where v1 and v2 are measures of variability, Q1 , Q2 and Q3 are the lower, median and upper quartiles,
respectively. σ 1 is the standard deviation from the mean and µ is the mean.

Furthermore, seasonal grouping was done by combining the hourly values of foF 2 for all days of the month of
December (December Solstice) represents November, December, January and February. The month of March
(March equinox) is represented by March and April, and the month of June (June solstice) is represented by May,
June, July and August. September (September equinox) is represented by September and October. Hourly averages
and their corresponding standard deviations were calculated for each of the season of the year under consideration.

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

The frequency distribution table of foF 2 with class intervals of 0.5 MHz was prepared for each hour for 1987 and
1989, so as to show the comparism histograms of occurrence frequencies of the observed data. For the validation of
IRI, the IRI 2001 code predictions was used to generate foF 2 values for each hour of the 15th (middle day) of each
month of the year . These hourly values were taken to be representative of the monthly hourly averages for the days
of that month. These monthly averages were used to compute the seasonal averages. This was done for each of the
year considered. The hourly averages obtained in this way were compared with the set of prediction coefficients of
the Radio section of the international Telecommunication Union (ITU-R).

RESULTS

(a) JAN 1986

(d) JAN 1987
8
8
foF2 (MHz)

6
foF2 (MHz)

4 4

2 2

0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT (HRS) LT (HRS)

(b) MAR 1986 (e) MAR 1987

10 10

8 8
foF2 (MHz)

foF2 (MHz)

6 6

4 4

2 2
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT (HRS) LT (HRS)

(c) MAY 1986 (f) MAY 1987

10
8
8
foF2 (MHz)

foF2 (MHz)

6
6
4
4
2
2
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT (HRS) LT (HRS)

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

Figure 1 median local time variations of foF2 ionosonde data versus IRI-2001 model for Ouagadougou during
December solstice (January), March solstice (March) and June solstice (May) of 1986 and 1987 low solar activity
periods. The curves with closed circles is the ITU-R predicted values while open triangles is the values of the
observed data.

(a) JAN 1989 (e) JAN 1990

12 12
10

foF2 (MHz)
foF2 (MHz)

10
8
8
6
6
4
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT(HRS) LT (HRS)

(b) MAR 1989

(f) MAR 1990
14
14
12
12
foF2 (MHz)

foF2 (MHz)

10
10

8 8

6 6
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT (HRS) LT (HRS)

(c) MAY 1989 (g) MAY 1990

14

12 12
foF2 (MHz)

10
foF2 (MHz)

10

8 8

6 6

4 4
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
LT (HRS) LT (HRS)

Figure 2 The same as Figure 1, except for Jan., Mar., and May, 1989 and 1990 high solar activity periods.

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

(i) DEC1987 (iv) DEC1989

%STEDEV= 13.76
%STDEV = 31.28 15
Freq. of occurrence

Freq. of Occurrence
10

10

5
5

0 0
2 4 6 8 10 8 9 10 11 12 13
foF2 (MHz) foF2 (MHz)

8 (ii) SEP1987 (v) SEP 1989

10
Freq. of Occurrence

%STDEV=27.31 %STDEV = 17.78

Freq. of occurence

6 8

6
4
4

2
2

0 0
2 4 6 8 10 8 10 12 14 16
foF2 (MHz) foF2 (MHz)

(vi) JUN 1989

% STDEV = 12.94
2
freq. of occurence

(iii) J U N 1 9 8 7
% S TD E V = 2 8.97
freq. of occurrence

12
1
9
6
3
2 3 4 5 6 0
6 7 8 9
fo F 2 (M H z ) foF2 (MHz)

Figure 3 Comparism of histogram of occurrence frequency

of observed foF2 at midnight (00 LT) for Ouagadougou at low
(1987) and high (1989) solar activity periods, for December
solstices, September equinoxes and June solstices. Percentage
standard deviation are indicated on each histogram

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

40 (i) DEC1987)

Freq.of Occurrence
(iv) DEC 1989
%STDEV=43.20
%STDEV=23.72
Freq. of occurrence

15
30

10
20

10 5

0 0
2 3 4 5 6 2 4 6 8 10
foF2 (MHz) foF2 (MHZ)

(ii) SEP 1987 (v) SEP 1989

Freq. of Occurrence

%STDEV = 20.69
Freq. of occurrence

%STDEV = 23.71
15
20

10

10
5

0 0
3 4 5 6 7 8 4 6 8 10 12
foF2 (MHz) foF2 (MHz)

(iii) JUN1987
%STDEV=23.17 40 (vi) JUN1989
Freq. Of occurrence

Freq. of Occurrence

40 %STDEV=10.21
30

20 20

10

0 0
4 5 6 7 6 7 8 9
foF2(MHz) foF2(MHz)

Figure 4 Same as Figure 3, but for 06 LT.

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

(iv) DEC1989

Freq. of Occurrence
(i) DEC1987 20 %STDEV=12.73
%STDEV=15.67
Freq. of Occurrence

20

10
10

0 0
6 7 8 9 1011 8 10 12 14
f0F2(MHz) foF2(MHz)

(v) SEP1989
(ii) SEP1987 %STDEV=12.05%
Freq. of occurence

30
%STEDEV=10.84 30
Freq. of Occurrence

20
20

10 10

0 0
7 8 9 10 10 12 14 16
foF2(MHz) foF2(MHz)

(vi) JUN1989
(iii) JUN 1987
Freq. of Occurrence

30 %STDEV=16.48
%STDEV = 12.96
Freq. Of occurrence

20

20

10
10

0 0
5 6 7 8 9 10 8 10 12 14 16
foF2 (MHz) foF2(MHz)

Figure 5 Same as Figure 3, but for midday.

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

(i) DEC1987 (iv) DEC1989

30 40

Freq. of Occurrence
%STDEV=12.30 %STDEV=12.14
Freq. of Occurrence

30
20

20

10
10

0 0
8 10 12 8 10 12 14
foF2(MHz) foF2(MHz)

(ii) SEP1987
30
%STDEV=12.35
Freq. of Occurrence

(v) SEP 1989

20
% S TD E V = 12.13
Freq. of occurrence

30
10 20

10

0 0
8 10 12 8 10 12 14
foF2(MHz) f0F2 (M H z)

(iii) JUN1987 (vi) JUN 1989

30 40
%STDEV = 9.63
Freq. of occurrence

%STDEV=11.86
Freq. of Occurrence

30
20

20

10
10

0 0
7 8 9 101112 8 9 10 11 12 13
foF2(MHz) foF2 (MHz)

Figure 6 Same as Figure 3, but for 18 LT.

DISCUSSION.
Comparison foF 2 with IRI-2001 model prediction
Figure 1, shows the comparison of observed foF 2 with those generated from the IRI 2001-model predictions at
low solar epochs of 1986 and 1987. The left side column of the plots is for low solar activity periods of 1986 while

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

the right side column of the plots is those of the low solar activity periods of 1987. A pre-sunrise minimum of
foF 2 occurred at 05 LT and a sunrise minimum at 06 LT, which is in agreement with those of IRI model
predictions, except for the months of May where a pre-sunrise minimum occurred between 04 and 05 LT. A sunset
peak occurred at 17 LT and 18 LT for all the representative months. For January 1986 at 18 to 24 LT, the ITU-R
underestimated the predicted values of foF 2 . The ITU-R values were underestimated for March 1986 between the
hours of 21 to 24 LT, while those of March 1987 were overestimated between the hours of 12 to 19 LT. Also, the
model underestimated the values of foF 2 for May 1986 between the hours of 06 and 18 LT, while that of May
1987 is between 06 and 21 LT. On a general note for Figure 1, The ITU-R options of the IRI Model showed much
agreement with the observed foF 2 for the different local time at low solar activity periods, during the different
seasons. This is in line with the results of Adeniyi et al. [2003], who used the data from the same station under
investigation but different set of data for high and low solar activity periods, and found that at low solar activity
periods, the CCIR (now ITU-R) option gave a better representation.

In Figure 2, the median local time variation of foF 2 ionosonde data together with the IRI- model predictions were
compared during the 1989 and 1990 periods of high solar activity for the different seasons. The left side column are
plots for the months of January, March and May representing the different seasons for 1989 solar activity period.
The right side column is the plots of the corresponding months for January, March and May representing the
different seasons for 1990 period of high solar activity. The IRI –2001 model showed much agreement for the hours
of 06 to 09 LT for all the representative seasons. A sunrise minimum occurred at about 05 LT and 06 LT for the
different representative months of the seasons. A morning peak occurred at 09 LT, also for the different months. The
model overestimated the predicted values of foF 2 for 1989 during the hours of 10-24 LT with that of May 1989,
showing much disagreement between 10 LT and 24 LT. The model overestimated the values of predicted foF 2
between 18-24 LT for 1990 months. Disparities observed in this high solar activity periods are in line with the
results of Adeniyi et al., [2005], who found that the ITU-R values does not agree much with the observed foF 2 at
high solar activity periods. These disparities can be adduced to the fast vertical motion of the F2-layer at high solar
activity. A night minimum occurred at 20 and 21 LT, except for January where it occurred at 10 LT. The different
values of foF 2 at different local time coupled with the shape of the curves in Figures 3.1 and 3.2, are indication
that the critical frequency of the F2-layer ( foF 2 ) changes with time.

Variations of foF 2 at various local time

Figure 3, shows the comparism of histogram of the occurrence frequencies of observed foF 2 at midnight (00 LT)
at low and high solar activity periods of 1987 and 1989, respectively. The left side column shows the histograms of
occurrence frequency for 1987 low solar activity and the right side column shows corresponding histograms of
occurrence frequency for 1989 high solar activity for December solstices, September equinoxes and June solstices,
with their percentage standard deviation from their mean indicated on each histogram. December 1987 has a
maximum frequency of occurrence at 5.0 MHz and minimum frequency of occurrence of 9.0 and 11.0 MHz
corresponding to a standard deviation from the mean of 31.28 % while December 1989 has maximum frequency of
occurrence of 9.0 MHz and a minimum frequency of occurrence of 10.5, 12.0 and 13.0 MHz. Corresponding to a
standard deviation from the mean of 13.76 %. Similarly for September equinoxes, 1987 has a maximum frequency
of occurrence of 7.0 MHz and a minimum of 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 7.5 and 8.5 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation of
27.31 %, while 1989 has a maximum frequency of occurrence of 9.0 MHz and a minimum of 7.0 and 8.0 MHz
corresponding to a standard deviation of 17.78 %. June solstices, 1987 has a maximum frequency of occurrence of
3.0 MHz and a minimum of 2.0 and 5.5 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation from the mean of 28.97 % while
June 1989 has a maximum frequency of occurrence of 6.9 and 8.4 MHz and a minimum frequency of occurrence of
9.0 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation from the mean of 12.94 %, even though the data were scanty. From
Figure 3, it can be seen that the variability is greater than the variability at high solar activity, for each corresponding
representative months, as indicated in each histogram by their percentage standard deviation from the mean.

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

06 LT variation of foF 2 is shown in Figure 4. The plots on the left side column is for low solar activity periods of
1987 for months of December, September and June representing December solstice, September equinox and June
solstice respectively. This corresponds to the right hand side column of the plots representing high solar activity
periods of 1989. For December solstice, the maximum frequency of occurrence for 1987 occurred at 1.0 MHz and
the minimum at 2.0 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation from the mean of 43.20 %, while the maximum
frequency of occurrence for 1989 (December) occurred at 6.0 MHz and the minimum occurred at 3.0, 8.5, 10.0 and
11.0 MHz corresponds to a standard deviation of 23.72 % since the data sets were evenly distributed than those of
December 1987. Still on 06 LT, September 1987 has a minimum of 5.0 and 8.0 MHz corresponding to standard
deviations from the mean of 23.71 %. September 1989 has a maximum frequency of occurrence at 6.5, and 7.5
MHz, with a minimum of 3.9, 11.5 and 12.0 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation of 20.69 %. June solstice of
1987 has a maximum frequency of occurrence of 4.0 MHz and a minimum of about 2.4 MHz corresponding to a
standard deviation of 23.17 % while June solstices of 1989 has a maximum frequency of occurrence of 6.8 MHz
and a minimum of 1.25 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation of 10.21 %. Also, the variability at low solar
activity is 2 times greater than those at high solar activity, except for the month of September for the equinoxes were
the spread or variability is slightly different compare to those of the solstices (December and June).

12 LT histogram of occurrence frequency of foF 2 variations is shown in Figure 5. The left side column is the
representative months for low solar activity periods of 1987 while the right side column is the representative months
for the seasons of high solar activity periods. The values of the percentage standard deviation from the mean
(STDEV) indicated on each histogram, shows the measure of variability or spread for each of the season. The spread
at June 1989 is largest, having a maximum frequency of occurrence of 9.0 and 11.5 MHz and a minimum of 15.0
and 16.0 MHz with a corresponding standard deviation from the mean of 16.48 %. This is followed by that of
December 1987 which has a maximum frequency of occurrence of 7.0 MHz and minimum of 10.5 and 11.5 MHz
corresponding to a standard deviation from the mean of 15.67 %. Differences in the measure of spread or variability
are seen in each month of low solar activity periods indicated by their percentage standard deviations from the mean
on each histogram. Here the variability is more at high solar activity than at low solar period except for December
solstices, where low solar period at 12 LT exceeds that of high solar period.

Figure 6, shows the examples of histogram of occurrence frequency for 1987 periods of low solar activity on the left
side column while the right side column shows 1989 periods of high solar activity for 18 LT, indicating the various
seasons. The measure of variability for the corresponding months are slightly the same having almost the same
maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence, corresponding slightly to the same percentage standard
deviations from their mean. This suggest that the features of the various seasons (December solstices and September
equinoxes for 1987 and 1989 solar activity periods) are the same with respect to the variations in foF 2 at 18 LT.
Except at June solstices where there is a slight differences in the measure of variability. The maximum frequency of
occurrence occurred at 9.0 MHz and a minimum of 7.0, 11.5 and 12.0 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation of
11.86 % for June 1987, whereas for June 1989, the maximum frequency of occurrence occurred at 9.0 MHz and the
minimum at 13.0 MHz corresponding to a standard deviation of 9.63 %.

Comparing Figure 3 and 5, the variability of the ionospheric parameter ( foF 2 ) at midnight (00 LT) is greater than
the variability at midday (12 LT), except for June 1989 where the variability at midday slightly exceed that at
midnight (00 LT). The observations suggest that the electron density at midday at the bottom side of the F2, layer is
higher than the electron density at midnight (00 LT), since foF 2 depends on electron density.

Generally, from Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6 the histograms having percentage standard deviations from the mean (V2)
about any value between 11.5 and 13.0 inclusive indicate that the foF 2 data were normally distributed. The
remaining data set, were found to be close to normal distribution, hence the percentage standard deviation from the
mean (V2) was taken as a fairly good index for describing the variability of foF 2 . This result is in agreement with
the work of Adeniyi et al. [2005], who carried out variability studies for the same station but for different set of data
at low, moderate and high solar activities of 1985, 1990 and 1993 respectively. They tested for the normality of the

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 Nzekwe N. M et al.,: Continental J. Applied Sciences 5:31 - 43, 2010

data set and concluded that most of the data sets were normally distributed and few were close to normal
distribution. The rising and falling of the histogram bars is an indication and a prove that the critical frequency of the
F2 layer ( foF 2 ), varies with time.

CONCLUSION.
The results of this work are summarized as follows:
1. The ITU-R Options of the IRI model is in much agreement with the observed values of foF 2 at low solar
epoch than at high solar epoch.
2. Minimum values of foF 2 occurred at 06 LT for January of all the years and 05 LT for March and May
during low solar activity periods.
3. A pre-noon peak occurred at 09 LT and a pre-sunset peak at17 LT at low solar activity periods.
4. A morning minimum of observed foF 2 occurred at 06 LT except for May where it occurred at 05 LT.,
during high solar activity periods.
5. A morning peak occurred at 10 LT except for September where it occurred at 09 LT., for high solar activity
periods of 1989 and 1990.
6. A night minimum of observed foF 2 occurred at 21 LT during high solar activity periods which is in
agreement with the ITU-R values.
7. Furthermore, the rising and falling of the histogram bars is an indication
and a prove that the critical frequency of the F2 layer ( foF 2 ) varies with time, hence a measure of variability was
obtained for the various months. These further showed that the hourly values of foF 2 have a distribution close to
a normal one for most of the times, irrespective of time of the day, season or solar cycle period. Hence the standard
deviation from the mean may be taken as a fairly good index for describing the variability of this ionospheric
parameter.
8. Finally our result will help in improving the accuracy of the IRI Model prediction of foF 2 .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Our appreciation is due to Professor J.O. Adeniyi of the University of Ilorin, a member of the IRI task force, for
releasing the ionosonde data used in this work. My regard and appreciation goes also to Dr. O.K Obrou a member of
the IRI, task force of laboratoire de physique de l’ atmosphere, Universite de Cocody, Cote-d’ivore for his assistance
in getting across to us the IRI 2001 empirical model software.

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Received for Publication: 17/06/10

Accepted for Publication: 09/07/10

Corresponding author
Nzekwe N. M
Physics Department, University of Ibadan, Ibadanm Oyo State, Nigeria
Email: nzekwemartins@yahoo.co.uk

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