thefourrings

TheworldasseenfromBeijingisaterrainofhazards,beginningwiththestreetsoutsidethepolicymaker's
window,tolandbordersandsealanesthousandsofmilesaway,totheminesandoilfieldsofdistantcontinents.
Thesethreatscanbedescribedinfourconcentricrings.Inthefirstring,theentireterritorythatChina
administersorclaims,BeijingbelievesthatChina'spoliticalstabilityandterritorialintegrityarethreatenedby
foreignactorsandforces.Comparedwithotherlargecountries,Chinamustdealwithanunparallelednumberof
outsideactorstryingtoinfluenceitsevolution,ofteninwaystheregimeconsidersdetrimentaltoitssurvival.
Foreigninvestors,developmentadvisers,tourists,andstudentsswarmthecountry,allwiththeirownideasabout
howChinashouldchange.ForeignfoundationsandgovernmentsgivefinancialandtechnicalsupporttoChinese
groupspromotingcivilsociety.DissidentsinTibetandXinjiangreceivemoralanddiplomaticsupportand
sometimesmaterialassistancefromethnicdiasporasandsympatheticgovernmentsabroad.Alongthecoast,
neighborscontestmaritimeterritoriesthatBeijingclaims.Taiwanisruledbyitsowngovernment,whichenjoys
diplomaticrecognitionfrom23statesandasecurityguaranteefromtheUnitedStates.

AtChina'sborders,policymakersfaceasecondringofsecurityconcerns,involvingChina'srelationswith14
adjacentcountries.NoothercountryexceptRussiahasasmanycontiguousneighbors.Theyincludefive
countrieswithwhichChinahasfoughtwarsinthepast70years(India,Japan,Russia,SouthKorea,and
Vietnam)andanumberofstatesruledbyunstableregimes.NoneofChina'sneighborsperceivesitscore
nationalinterestsascongruentwithBeijing's.

ButChinaseldomhastheluxuryofdealingwithanyofitsneighborsinapurelybilateralcontext.Thethirdring
ofChinesesecurityconcernsconsistsofthepoliticsofthesixdistinctgeopoliticalregionsthatsurroundChina:
NortheastAsia,Oceania,continentalSoutheastAsia,maritimeSoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,andCentralAsia.
Eachoftheseareaspresentscomplexregionaldiplomaticandsecurityproblems.

Finally,thereisthefourthring:theworldfarbeyondChina'simmediateneighborhood.Chinahastrulyentered
thisfarthestcircleonlysincethelate1990sandsofarforlimitedpurposes:tosecuresourcesofcommodities,
suchaspetroleum;togainaccesstomarketsandinvestments;togetdiplomaticsupportforisolatingTaiwanand
Tibet'sDalaiLama;andtorecruitalliesforChina'spositionsoninternationalnormsandlegalregimes.

USATHEREVISIONIST

ChinesesecurityanalystsalsotakenoteoftheUnitedStates'extensivecapabilitytodamageChineseeconomic
interests.TheUnitedStatesisstillChina'ssinglemostimportantmarket,unlessonecountstheEuropeanUnion
asasingleentity.AndtheUnitedStatesisoneofChina'slargestsourcesofforeigndirectinvestmentand
advancedtechnology.Fromtimetotime,Washingtonhasentertainedtheideaofwieldingitseconomicpower
coercively.Afterthe1989TiananmenSquarecrackdown,theUnitedStatesimposedsomelimiteddiplomatic
andeconomicsanctionsonChina,includinganembargo,whichisstillineffect,onthesaleofadvancedarms.
Forseveralyearsafterthat,CongressdebatedwhethertopunishChinafurtherforhumanrightsviolationsby
cancelingthelowmostfavorednationtariffratesenjoyedbyChineseimports,althoughproponentsoftheplan
couldnevermusteramajority.Morerecently,U.S.legislatorshaveproposedsanctioningChinaforartificially
keepingthevalueoftheyuanlowtothebenefitofChineseexporters,andtheRepublicanpresidentialcandidate
MittRomneyhaspromisedthatifelected,hewilllabelChinaacurrencymanipulatoron"dayone"ofhis
presidency.

ChineseanalystsalsobelievethattheUnitedStatespossessespotentideologicalweaponsandthewillingnessto
usethem.AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatestookadvantageofitspositionasthedominantpowertoenshrine
AmericanprinciplesintheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRightsandotherinternationalhumanrights
instrumentsandtoinstallwhatChinaseesasWesternstyledemocraciesinJapanand,eventually,SouthKorea,
Taiwan,andothercountries.ChineseofficialscontendthattheUnitedStatesusestheideasofdemocracyand
humanrightstodelegitimizeanddestabilizeregimesthatespousealternativevalues,suchassocialismand
Asianstyledevelopmentalauthoritarianism.InthewordsofLiQun,amemberoftheShandongProvincialParty
CommitteeandarisingstarintheCommunistParty,theAmericans'"realpurposeisnottoprotectsocalled
humanrightsbuttousethispretexttoinfluenceandlimitChina'shealthyeconomicgrowthandtoprevent
China'swealthandpowerfromthreatening[their]worldhegemony."

inscrutableamerica

IneachofChina'sfoursecurityrings,theUnitedStatesisomnipresent.Itisthemostintrusiveoutsideactorin
China'sinternalaffairs,theguarantorofthestatusquoinTaiwan,thelargestnavalpresenceintheEastChina
andSouthChinaseas,theformalorinformalmilitaryallyofmanyofChina'sneighbors,andtheprimaryframer
anddefenderofexistinginternationallegalregimes.ThisomnipresencemeansthatChina'sunderstandingof
AmericanmotivesdetermineshowtheChinesedealwithmostoftheirsecurityissues.

YetChinesepolicymakersaremoreimpressedbypoliciesandbehaviorsthattheyperceiveaslessbenevolent.
TheAmericanmilitaryisdeployedallaroundChina'speriphery,andtheUnitedStatesmaintainsawidenetwork
ofdefenserelationshipswithChina'sneighbors.WashingtoncontinuestofrustrateBeijing'seaortstogain
controloverTaiwan.TheUnitedStatesconstantlypressuresChinaoveritseconomicpoliciesandmaintainsa
hostofgovernmentandprivateprogramsthatseektoinfluenceChinesecivilsocietyandpolitics.

Second,althoughChinahasembracedstatecapitalismwithvigor,theChineseviewoftheUnitedStatesisstill
informedbyMarxistpoliticalthought,whichpositsthatcapitalistpowersseektoexploittherestoftheworld.
ChinaexpectsWesternpowerstoresistChinesecompetitionforresourcesandhighervalueaddedmarkets.And
althoughChinarunstradesurpluseswiththeUnitedStatesandholdsalargeamountofU.S.debt,China's
leadingpoliticalanalystsbelievetheAmericansgetthebetterendofthedealbyusingcheapChineselaborand
credittolivebeyondtheirmeans.

Third,AmericantheoriesofinternationalrelationshavebecomepopularamongyoungerChinesepolicy
analysts,manyofwhomhaveearnedadvanceddegreesintheUnitedStates.Themostinfluentialbodyof
internationalrelationstheoryinChinaissocalledoffensiverealism,whichholdsthatacountrywilltryto
controlitssecurityenvironmenttothefullextentthatitscapabilitiespermit.Accordingtothistheory,theUnited
StatescannotbesatisfiedwiththeexistenceofapowerfulChinaandthereforeseekstomaketherulingregime
thereweakerandmoreproAmerican.ChineseanalystsseeevidenceofthisintentinWashington'scallsfor
democracyanditssupportforwhatChinaseesasseparatistmovementsinTaiwan,Tibet,andXinjiang.

exploitingtaiwan

Reviewingthishistory,ChinesestrategistsaskthemselveswhytheUnitedStatesremainssocommittedto
Taiwan.AlthoughAmericansoftenarguethattheyaresimplydefendingaloyaldemocratically,mostChinese
seestrategicmotivesattherootofWashington'sbehavior.TheybelievethatkeepingtheTaiwanproblemgoing
helpstheUnitedStatestieChinadown.InthewordsofLuoYuan,aretiredgeneralanddeputysecretarygeneral
oftheChineseSocietyofMilitaryScience,theUnitedStateshaslongusedTaiwan"asachesspiecetocheck
China'srise."

theperilsofpluralism

IntheChineseview,Washington'sslowrapprochementwithBeijingwasnotbornofidealismandgenerosity;
instead,itwaspursuedsothattheUnitedStatescouldprofitfromChina'seconomicopeningbysqueezing
profitsfromU.S.investments,consumingcheapChinesegoods,andborrowingmoneytosupporttheU.S.trade
andfiscaldeficits.WhilebusyfeastingattheChinesetable,U.S.strategistsoverlookedtheriskofChina'srise
untilthelate1990s.NowthattheUnitedStatesperceivesChinaasathreat,theseChineseanalystsbelieve,itno
longerhasanyrealisticwaytopreventitfromcontinuingtodevelop.Inthissense,theU.S.strategyof
engagementfailed,vindicatingtheadviceofChineseleaderDengXiaoping,whoin1991advocatedastrategyof
"hidingourlightandnurturingourstrength."FacedwithaChinathathasrisentoofartobestopped,theUnited
Statescandonomorethanitisdoing:demandcooperationonU.S.terms,threatenChina,hedgemilitarily,and
continuetotrytochangetheregime.