1/7/2017 UniversalBasicIncomeandRadicalPopulism:MakingtheLink|Stratfor|FINANCIALSENSE

UniversalBasicIncomeandRadicalPopulism:
MakingtheLink
STRATFOR 01/04/2017

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Editor'sNote:TheGlobalAffairscolumniscuratedbyStratfor'sboardofcontributors,adiversegroupofthinkerswhose
expertiseinspiresrigorousandinnovativethought.Theiropinionsaretheirownandservetocomplementandevenchallenge
ourbeliefs.Wewelcomethatchallenge,andwehopeourreadersdotoo.

ByJayOgilvy

Whatareweutterlywrongabouttoday?Thinkofthewaywelookbackatpracticeslikeslaveryandcolonialismthatwereso
commonlyacceptedintheirtimebutwerelaterrejectedasoffensesagainstbasicmorality.Whatisitaboutourtimethatwill
berecalled,centuriesfromnow,withasmuchopprobriumandamazement?Whatdowetakeforgrantedthatourdescendants
willrenounce?

Agoodcandidateisourgeneralacceptanceofextremeeconomicinequalitynotsomuchextremewealth,butextreme
poverty.Inaworldaswealthyasours,howcanwestillallowsomanytoexistinconditionsofabjectpoverty?

ListentoBookInterview:ARadicallyBeneficialWorld:Automation,TechnologyandCreatingJobsforAll

Infactwearealreadyonourwaytowardeliminatingpoverty.MuchofthecreditgoestoChina,wherethenumberofthosein
extremepovertydroppedby680millionbetween1981and2010,from84percentofthepopulationin1980to10percent
today.

Whatabouttherestoftheworld?LindaOiuofPolitiFactwrites:"AccordingtotheWorldBank,1.9billionpeople(or37.1
percentoftheglobalpopulation)livedonlessthan$1.90adayin1990,comparedtoaprojected702million(9.6percent)in
2015.That'sa74.1percentdeclinein25years."

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Whatwillittaketoeliminatethepovertythatremains?Givenenoughtime,marketforcesmightbesufficient.Butanother
approachcouldacceleratetheprocess:aguaranteedbasicincome.

Beforerejectingthisideaoutofhandasaleftyredistributionscheme,considerthatithassupportfromconservativesfrom
MiltonFriedmantoCharlesMurray.Whilehardlyinthemainstreamyet,theconceptofaguaranteedbasicincomehasalong
history,anditisgainingadherentsaroundtheworld.

AUtopianNotion
TheideagoesallthewaybacktoThomasMore'sUtopia,publishedin1516.Andthatispartofitsproblematiclegacy:It
seemssoutopian.FrenchphilosopherNicolasdeCondorcetproposedaformof"socialinsurance"atthetimeoftheFrench
Revolution...buthewasimprisonedandsentencedtodeath.ThomasPaine,apoliticalactivistandafoundingfatherofthe
UnitedStates,tookuphisfriend'scause,writingin1796thatpaymentsshouldbemade"toeveryperson,richorpoor,"
"becauseitisinlieuofthenaturalinheritance,which,asaright,belongstoeveryman,overandabovethepropertyhemay
havecreated,orinheritedfromthosewhodid."

Butevenifthisbafflingandseeminglywastefulnotionthatpaymentsshouldgototherichaswellastothepoorwaseasyto
accept,itsimplementationwasnot.Itturnsoutthattryingtodecidethedifferencebetweentherichandthepoor,andwhois
thereforedeservingofpaymentsandwhoisnot,ismoredifficultthanitmightfirstappear.Indeed,"meanstesting"requiresa
massiveandexpensivebureaucracy.AsMattZwolinskiputsitinapaperfromtheCatoInstitute:

"Conditionsareputonwelfareinordertoensurethatassistancegoestothedeservingpoor,andnottothe
undeserving.Butdistinguishingbetweenthedeservingandundeservingisdifficultbusiness,andrequiresavariety
ofinvasive,demoralizing,anddegradinginspectionsintotheintimatedetailsofapplicants'lives.'Filloutthisform,
tellusaboutthatmanyoulivewith,peeinthiscup,andsubmittospotinspectionsofyourhomebyoursocial
workers,orelse.'"

Forthoseontheright,themainappealofabasicincomeistheprospectofeliminatingthewelfarestatebureaucracyand
therebyreducingthesizeofgovernment.

ThreeWaves
Duringthe20thcenturytherewerethreediscerniblewavesofinterestinbasicincome.Thefirstwavestartedearly,with
philosophersandauthorsfromBertrandRusselltoVirginiaWoolfwritingabouttheideawithoutactuallygivingitaname.In
theUnitedStates,"sharethewealth"wassettobeacentralplankinHueyP.Long'srunforpresidencyin1936beforehis
assassinationin1935.(Isthisideacursed?)

Afterthefirstwaveofinterestsubsided,asecondwavebeganinthe1960s.U.S.PresidentLyndonB.Johnsondeclareda
"waronpoverty."TheCanadiangovernmentpublishedseveralreportson"guaranteedannualincome"inthe1970s.President
Nixonsupporteda"negativeincometax."In1971,theU.S.HouseofRepresentativespassedaversionofthenegativeincome
tax,butitfailedintheSenateby10votes.(Cursedagain.)BythetimeRonaldReaganandMargaretThatchercametopower
inthe1980s,thesecondwavehadsubsided.

ThethirdwaveoriginatesinEurope.Agroupofacademicsandactivistsinterestedintheideaofbasicincomecreatedthe
BasicIncomeEuropeanNetwork,whichinternationalizeditselfin2004andbecametheBasicIncomeEarthNetwork."Yet,as
lateasthe2000s,UBI[universalbasicincome]wassofaroutofthepoliticalmainstreamthatthemovementfeltmorelikea

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discussiongroupthanamovement,"writesKarlWiderquistina2016papertitled"BasicIncome'sThirdWave."Widerquist
continues:"Topeoplewhoweren'tpayinganyspecialattention,thethirdwavebecamevisiblein2015or2016.Volunteersat
BasicIncomeNewshadbeennoticingsubstantialincreasesinmainstreammediaattentioneveryyearsinceatleast2011."

SolutionandOpportunity
MichaelHoward,coordinatorofBIEN'sU.S.branch,writesabouthisexperiencewiththemovementontheBIENwebsite:

Duringtheseroughly25years,Ihaveseenbasicincomemovefromanovelidea,underdiscussionbyacademics
andafewvisionaryactivistsinresponsetounprecedentedchangesinourworld,toapolicyideabeingtestedin
SouthAfrica,Brazil,theNetherlands,Finland,Switzerland,India,andCanada,andontheradarofmainstream
policymakersintheUSlikeRobertReichandevenPresidentObama.

Whythesuddenincreaseininterestinanideathat'sbeenaround,aswe'veseen,forsuchalongtime?Hasthecursebeen
lifted?Theanswertothisquestionisnotsimple.Itismultifaceted,andpreciselyinitsmultiplicityliesitsintrigue.Furtherfrom
theBIENwebsite:

ManyreasonshaveallbeeninvokedinBasicIncome'sfavor,includinglibertyandequality,efficiencyand
community,commonownershipoftheEarthandequalsharinginthebenefitsoftechnicalprogress,theflexibilityof
thelabormarketandthedignityofthepoor,thefightagainstinhumaneworkingconditions,againstthe
desertificationofthecountrysideandagainstinterregionalinequalities,theviabilityofcooperativesandthe
promotionofadulteducation,autonomyfrombosses,husbandsandbureaucrats.

Towhichwecouldaddbetterparenting.Thinkabouttheunwedmotherwhowillnothavetolookforthatsecondorthirdjob
butwillinsteadnowhavemoretimeforherchildren.

Partoftheexcitementanimatingcurrentinterestinbasicincomeliesinthefactthatwestilldon'tknowwhatunpredictable
consequencesmightcomefromitsimplementation.Wouldpeopleusefreecashtosmokepotandplayvideogames?Or
wouldtheyusetheircushionofsecuritytopursueriskieroccupationsinartoreducation?Wesimplydon'tyetknowwhatmight
emergefromarangeoftestsabouttogetunderway.

Inadditiontoourignorance,anotherpartoftheexcitementanimatingcurrentinterestinbasicincomeliesinasenseof
urgency.ThoughtleaderslikeElonMuskworrythatadvancesinartificialintelligence,automationandroboticsareabouttoput
millionsofpeopleoutofwork.Futuristshaveworriedinthepastabouttheprospectoftechnologyleadingtounemployment.
Whatwouldpeopledowithalloftheirleisuretime?Inthepast,theirconcernsweremisplacednewtechnologiescreatednew
andbetterjobs.Butthistime,Muskandothersworry,themachinesaregettingsosmart,merehumansmaysoonbe
redundant.

ReadSuperWelfareGuaranteedIncomeforAllIsn'taSolutionIt'sJusttheNewSerfdom

Theprospectofloomingunemploymentisaproblemtowhichbasicincomeisnotjustaneconomicsolutionbutamoreradical
opportunity."Basicincomeisaboutwantingtoembraceautomation,"saidAlbertWenger,apartnerattheventurecapitalfirm
UnionSquareVentures.InaFiveThirtyEightessaytitled"WhatWouldHappenifWeJustGavePeopleMoney?",Andrew
Flowersreports:

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"Wengerwantslesstimespentontasksthatcouldbeautomatedandmoretimespentonissueshethinksare
insufficientlyaddressed:fightingclimatechange,exploringspace,preventingthenextglobalpandemic.Likethe
backersofbasicincomeinSwitzerland,hethinksprovidingforbasicneedswillallowinnovationtoflourish.Witha
basicincome,hesaid,'you'reputinchargeofyourtime.You'llhave100percentofyourtimeavailabletoyou.'"

Sotheconceptofauniversalbasicincomeisnotjustthesolutiontotheproblemofpovertyandunemployment.Preciselyin
themultiplicityofitsrationalesandimplications,itholdsouttheprospectofaradicalparadigmshiftinthewayweunderstand
therelationshipsamongwork,wealthandhumanflourishing.

AndrewFlowersalsowritesaboutDanielStraub,oneofthebackersofafailedmovementtoinitiateabasicincomein
Switzerland:

"Everyone,richorpoor,employedoroutofworkwouldgetthesameamountofmoney.Thisarrangementwouldprovidea
pathtowardanewwayofliving:Ifpeoplenolongerhadtoworryaboutmakingendsmeet,theycouldpursuethelivesthey
wanttolive...'Welimitourselvestoomuch,'Straubsaid.'I'minterestedinconsciousness,expandingconsciousness.And
basicincomeisawonderfultoolforthatitchallengesalotofassumptionswehave.'"

AsexpansiveasStraub'shopesmaybetowardhigherhumanpotential,it'sworthalsonotinghowtheimplicationsofabasic
incomecomedowntoearthtothefundamentalsofgeopolitics.WritingaboutGuyStanding,aBritisheconomistwhoco
foundedBIEN,FlowerscontinuesinhisFiveThirtyEightessay:

"Basicincome,Standingsays,ismorethangoodpolicy.Hecallsit'essential,'giventhatmoreandmorepeoplein
developedeconomiesareliving'alifeofchroniceconomicinsecurity.'Heseesthisinsecurityfuelingpopulist
politicians,boostingfarrightpartiesacrossEuropeandtheriseofDonaldTrumpintheU.S.Economicstagnation
increasestheappealofextremepoliticians,andunlessthoseinsecuritiesareaddressed,Standingsaid,thatappeal
isonlygoingtogetstronger."

FromaDec.17NewYorkTimesarticleaboutabasicincomeexperimentinFinland,welearn:

"Thesearchhasgainedanextraordinarysenseofurgencyasawaveofreactionarypopulismsweepstheglobe,
castingtheeliteestablishmentasthemainbeneficiaryofeconomicforcesthathavehurttheworkingmasses.
Americans'electionofDonaldJ.Trump,whohasvowedtoradicallyconstraintrade,andthestunningvoteinBritain
toabandontheEuropeanUnion,haveresoundedasemergencysirensforgloballeaders.Theymusteitherupdate
capitalismtosharethespoilsmoreequitably,orriskwatchingangrymobsdismantletheinstitutionsthathave
underpinnedeconomicpolicysincetheendofWorldWarII."

Thisbriefcolumncan'tbegintogetintotheissueofhowuniversalbasicincomecanbefinancedthatisawholeother
subject.Butaswingthroughtheliteratureonbasicincome,plusahardlookattheimminenceoftechnologicallyinduced
unemploymentaccordingtoastudyfromOxfordUniversityandtheMartinSchool,"47percentofjobsintheUSare'atrisk'
ofbeingautomatedinthenext20years"shouldbeenoughtoexplainwhyJenniferBroadhurstwroteinTheChristian
ScienceMonitorjustlastweek,"Whenitcomestoideasmovingfromthefringestothepoliticalmainstream,thisisonethatis
makingthejourney."

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"UniversalBasicIncomeandRadicalPopulism:MakingtheLink"isrepublishedwithpermissionofStratfor.

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