Robin D.

Ramirez Molina
MEng. Civil Engineering Student
Structural & Earthquake Engineering

PSHA: REVIEW AND EXAMPLES

Reference: Elements of Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics
Filiatrault, 3ed
Section 3.5.2 (p90-p93)
The objective of this document is to illustrate the probabilistic seismic hazard
analysis for a large seismogenic source zone

1.1 DERIVATION OF THE TOTAL RECURRENCE RATE PER

ANNUM FOR A LARGE SEISMOGENIC SOURCE ZONE
The magnitude-recurrence relation per unit area of the source is known
log N A bM
N N o exp bM

Suppose that the parameter of interest at the site is the peak ground horizontal
acceleration, a max . A general attenuatiion relation for the region (assumed as deterministic
for this example) is given by
log a max b 1 b 2 M b 3 log d b 4
Infinite Seismogenic Source Zone
If this equations is inverted to isolate a max
a max exp b 1 exp b 2 M d b 4 b 3
where dR
R
d r2 h2
We can simplify the equation
b3 Site
a max c 1 exp b 2 M r 2 h 2 s
where Annular Element
c 1 exp b 1 Mmax 7.0 of Area dA

b4 0
Figure 1: Site located at the centre of
Now, if we invert the last the quation in terms of M a large seimogenic zone
b3
a max
log c1 r2 h2 2

M b2

Consider an infinitesimal annular element of source area dA (See Figure 1). If a unit source
area generates N earthquakes per year of magnitude freated than or equal to M, then an
infinitesimal source area dA fenerates dN earthquakes peer annum of magnitude greater or
equal to M
dN N o exp bM dA
where
dA 2 RdR
therefore, recall M

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Robin D. Ramirez Molina
MEng. Civil Engineering Student
Structural & Earthquake Engineering

b3
a max
log c1 r2 h2 2

dN 2 N o exp b b2
rdr

the equation can be simplified as

b
b3
a max b2
dN 2 No c1 r2 h2 2 rdr
the total recurrence rate per annum at the site, N, caused by the entire area of the source
N dN
b bb 3
a max ro
N 2 No c1
b2
r2 h2 2b 2
d dr
0

solving the integral

N K F1 h F
d oF
a max
b
b3b 1
F
N 2N o c1
b2
b2
2 h d oF
b3b
b3b 2
a max
b
b3b 1 2 b2
N 2N o c1
b2
b2
2 h b2
do

The maximum possible value of a max depends on the attenuation relation (where r 0 and
M M max )
a max,possible c 1 exp b 2 M max h b 3
where
c 1 exp b 1
1
a max
do r 2o h2 c 1 exp b 2 M max
b3

1.2 EXAMPLE: HBB MODEL

Hasegawa, Basham, and Berry in 1981.
Known as the HBB relations, they were used to construct seismic zoning maps that
were included in the 1985, 1990, and 1995 editions of the NBCC
For Western Canada
a max 0. 01019 exp 1. 3 M L d 1.5
v max 0. 00040 exp 2. 3 M L d 1.3
For Eastern Canada
a max 0. 00347 exp 1. 3 M L d 1.1
v max 0. 00018 exp 2. 3 M L d 1.0

Assuming a source zone like the one analyzed in Section 1.1, we define the following for
this problem
Magnitude-recurrence relation
log N A bM

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Robin D. Ramirez Molina
MEng. Civil Engineering Student
Structural & Earthquake Engineering

A 4. 77
b 1. 85
h 20
M max M 7. 0
x a max
Note: in this example we will define, for convenience, the unknown seismic parameter as
x a max

The table below shows the numerical results obtained using the equations defined in
Section 1.1 of this document using the simple HBB attenuation relations for eastern and
western Canada.
Parameter HBB Eastern Canada HBB Western Canada
b1 b1 5. 66 b1 4. 59
b2 b2 1. 30 b2 1. 30
b3 b3 1. 1 b3 1. 5
3 3
No No exp A 8. 480 4 10 No exp A 8. 480 4 10
3 2
c1 c1 exp b 1 3. 482 5 10 c1 exp b 1 1. 015 3 10
b b
x 1. 696 1 10 2 x 1. 696 1 10 2
K K 2N o c1
b2
287. 15x 1. 4231
K 2N o c1
b2
98. 494x 1. 423 1
b3b b3b
F F b2
2 0. 434 62 F b2
2 0. 134 62
1 1
x b3 1 x b3 1
do do c 1 exp b 2 M 0.909 09
do c 1 exp b 2 M 0.666 67
3. 206 5 10 2 x 1. 099 8 10 2 x

For the HBB Eastern Canada Model

N K F1 h F d oF
where
1
h F d oF 3. 676 6 2 0.395 1
3. 206 5 10 x
Therefore, the recurrence rate
1. 696 1 10 2 1 1
N 0.434 62
3. 676 6
287. 15x 1. 4231 3. 206 5 10 2 x
0.395 1

or

6 1. 423 1 1
N 5. 386 6 10 x 2. 300 9 3. 676 6 0.395 1
3. 206 5 10 2 x

6 1. 423 1 1
N 5. 386 6 10 2. 300 9 x 3. 676 6 0.395 1
3. 206 5 10 2 x

5 1. 423 1 1
N 1. 239 4 10 x 3. 676 6 0.395 1
3. 206 5 10 2 x

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Robin D. Ramirez Molina
MEng. Civil Engineering Student
Structural & Earthquake Engineering

or
2 1 1. 423 1
N 3. 902 5 10 0.395 1
3. 676 6 287. 15x
3. 206 5 10 2 x

For the HBB Western Canada Model

8. 974 4 10 2
N K F1 h F d oF 0. 125 99 1. 423 1
1. 099 8 10 2 x 0. 668 13
98. 494x
where
8. 974 4 10 2
h F d oF 0. 668 13 1. 099 8 10 2 x
Therefore, the recurrence rate
2
N 0. 125 99 98. 494x 1. 423 1 1. 099 8 10 2 x 8. 974 4 10 0. 668 13

Now, we can plot the hazard curves for the site expressed int terms of the annual
recurrence rate, N at the site as a function of the peak horizontal acceleration

0.010
N (/year)
0.009

0.008
HBB East
0.007

0.006

0.005

0.004 HBB West

0.003
N=0.0021
0.002

0.001

0.000
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
a_max(g)

Also, we can plot the hazard curves for the site expressed int terms of the return period,
T 1/N, at the site as a function of the peak horizontal acceleration
HBB Eastern Canada Model
1 1
T N
2 1 1. 423 1
3. 902 5 10 0.395 1
3. 676 6 287. 15x
3. 206 5 10 2 x

HBB Western Canada Model

1 1
T N 8. 974 4 10 2
0.125 99 1. 099 8 10 2 x 0.668 13
98. 494x 1. 423 1

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Robin D. Ramirez Molina
MEng. Civil Engineering Student
Structural & Earthquake Engineering

2000
T (year) HBB West

1500

HBB East
1000

T=475
500

0
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
a_max(g)

EXAMPLE

From the defined hazard curves, we can obtain the peak horizontal acceleration for a given
annual recurrence rate or return period.

For:

N=0.0021yr -1
T=475yrs

HBB East -> amax = 0.165g

HBB West -> amax = 0.095g