Chapter 2:

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Lesson 2: Geometric Probability
TIME FRAME: 1 hour
OVERVIEW OF LESSON
In this activity, students firstly review concepts about probability, and discuss examples of
theoretical probability, geometric probability and empirical probability. Then they are given a
coin tossing exercise to calculate the empirical probability of having a coin fall on a particular
square in a grid (to solve Buffons Coin problem). They are led to discover that empirical
probabilities, with more tosses tend toward the geometric/theoretical probability.
LEARNING COMPETENCIES: At the end of the lesson, the learner should be able to

define and distinguish geometric probability, empirical probability, theoretical

probability;
use simulation to identify an empirical solution to Buffons coin problem;
employ area formulas to identify a theoretical solution to Buffons coin problem;
observe that as the number of trials increases, the empirical probability tends to approach
the theoretical probability.
LESSON OUTLINE:
1. Introduction : Recall How to Calculate Probability for Certain Random Processes
2. Main Lesson: Empirical and Theoretical Probability
3. Investigation on Empirical Probability : Buffons Coin Problem
4. Investigation on Theoretical Probability : Buffons Coin Problem
MATERIALS REQUIRED

Coins and square grid (the length of the diameter of the coin should be less than the
length of a square on the grid possibilities are plastic lids on floor tiles, or coins on
graph paper). Note that a blank grid for coins is provided on the last page of this
lesson.
Pencil and paper for record keeping and note taking.
Calculator.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LESSON
(A) Introduction / Motivation : Recall How to Assign Probabilities to Events
Begin the session with a recall of the notion of the PROBABILITY (or Chance) of events,
in the context of random processes: where possible outcomes can be determined
beforehand, but not whether an outcome will occur. .
Mention to students that probabilities of events may be assigned:
(a) theoretically by assuming understanding about situations on the events, such as
symmetry or equal-likely outcomes (e.g., fair coin, fair dice being tossed so outcomes are
equally likely), or if the events may be related to areas of geometric objects (this is called
geometric probability;
(b) subjectively with personal assessment of situation (e.g., when a student tells his
friend that he has 50 percent chance of passing the quiz, or the probability that a student
can swim around the world in 24 hours is 0,); or
(c) empirically by collecting data from repeated trials or experiences, and getting the
proportion of times an event occurs (e.g., observing 10 patients, noticing that 6 of them
responded to a medicine within one hour of the treatment, and thus stating that the
probability of response within an hour of receiving the treatment is 60 percent).

Inform students that a few hundred years ago people enjoyed betting on coins tossed on to
the floor ... would they cross a line or not? Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon (1707
1788), a French mathematician, started thinking about this problem more systematically
expressing it as follows:

What is the probability that a coin, tossed randomly at a grid, will land entirely within a
tile rather than across the tile boundaries? (For the purposes of this lesson, we will
assume that the diameter of the coin is less than the length of a side of the tile.)

The Buffon coin problem is an exercise in geometric probability, where probabilities are
viewed as the proportions of areas (lengths or volumes) of geometric objects under specified
conditions. Examples of questions that deal with geometric probabilities are:
What is the probability of hitting the bulls eye when a dart is thrown randomly at a target
(given the target has a diameter of 24 cm, and the bulls eye has a diameter of 10 cm) ?
 What is the probability that a four-colored spinner (with a diameter of 20 cm) lands on
red?

Geometric probabilities can be estimated using empirical approaches, or identified exactly

using analytical methods (theoretical probability).

Definition: An empirical probability is the proportion of times that an event of interest

occurs in a set number of repetitions of an experiment.

Example: Throw 100 darts at the target.

15 darts hit the bulls eye.

The empirical probability of hitting the bulls eye is

15/100 = 3/20.

Spin the spinner 50 times.

Spinner lands on red 12 times.

Empirical probability = 12/50 = 6/25.

Definition: A theoretical probability is the proportion of times an event of interest would

be expected to occur in an infinite number of repetitions of an experiment. For a
geometric probability, this is the ratio of the area of interest (e.g. bulls eye) to the total
area (e.g. target).
 2
Area of bulls eye = 5

2
Area of target = 12

Theoretical probability of hitting bulls eye =

2
5 25
2
=
12 144

Area of red section = ( 14 ) 10 2

2
Area of spinner = 10

Theoretical probability of landing on red =

( 14 ) 10 = 12

10
2
4

Ask students how would we could identify an empirical solution to this Buffons coin
problem? (This corresponds to prompt 1 on the task sheet.)
(B) Investigation on Empirical Probability : Buffons Coin Problem
I. Problem Formulation : Buffons coin
What is the probability that a coin, tossed randomly at a grid, will land entirely within a tile
rather than across the tile boundaries? (Recall that in this activity, we assume that the
diameter of the coin is less than the length of a side of the tile.)
II. Design and Implement a Plan to Collect the Data

Discuss as a class: how would we identify an empirical solution to Buffons coin

problem? (See Item 1 on Activity Sheet.)
(After students propose tossing coins at a grid, discuss details of the experiment:
group learners into groups of five people; how many times will each group throw the
coin? How will the coin be tossed? Will they count the times that the coin lands on a
boundary or the times it lands entirely within a tile? Will each group do this the same
way? What difference will it make if they do not? (For purposes of later discussion it
will be helpful if everyone considers the event that the coin lands entirely within a
tile.) Who will record the outcome of each toss? How will this count translate into an
empirical probability?)

Experiment: Instruct each group to conduct the experiment, as designed by the class.
(See Item 2 of Activity Sheet.)

III. Analyze the Data

Instruct each group to use the data they gathered to compute an empirical probability of the
event they considered.
IV. Interpret the Results

Discuss as a class:
o Summarize the empirical probabilities generated by the groups on the
blackboard. Ask students what they observe about the empirical probabilities
computed by the groups. (They are not all the same, many may be similar, a
few may differ by a lot, if the experiment were repeated different answers
would be obtained).
o Is it possible to get a more stable answer? (Yes, repeat the experiment more
times, combine data from different groups).
o Ask the students what they would expect to see if the coin could be tossed an
infinite number of times. Why would they expect to see this? (See Item 3 of
Activity Sheet.)

(C) Investigation on Geometric Probability

I. Problem Formulation : Buffons coin
Recall Buffons coin problem: What is the probability that the coin, tossed randomly at a
grid, will land entirely within a tile rather than across the tile boundaries?
II. Solution to Problem

Discuss as a class: how would we identify a theoretical solution to Buffons coin

problem? (See Item 4 of Activity Sheet.)
Outline the process here: identify the shape of the region within the tile in which the
coin must land to be entirely within the tile, look at the ratio of the area of that shape
to the area of a tile. Students will work out the details with their groups in the next
segment.

Solution: The Probability of a Crack Crossing

Our main interest is in the event C that the coin crosses the tiles. However, it turns out
to be easier to describe the complementary event Cc that the coin does not cross a tile.

If the tile has unit length, and radius r < , then

P(Cc )= (1 - 2r)2,

Thus, P(C) = 1 - (1 - 2r)2.

Explore: Again working in groups, ask students:

o To formulate a conjecture about the relationship between theoretical and
empirical probabilities. (See Item 5 of Activity Sheet.)
o To identify the shape of the region within the tile in which the coin must land
to be entirely within a tile. (This will be challenging for some students. The
key is to consider where the center of the coin lands and how close the center
can be to the edge of a tile while the coin is not on a boundary. )

III. Analyze the Data

Instruct each group to use their observations from the experiment, and the group
discussion to compute a theoretical probability that a coin tossed randomly at a grid
lands entirely within a single tile. (See Item 6 of Activity Sheet..)
IV. Interpret the Results

Discuss as a class: Summarize students solutions on the board. Discuss

observations about these solutions. Bring the class to a consensus about the solution.
Observe that there is only one solution and it will not vary with further investigation.
Synthesis
What seems to be the relationship between the empirical and the theoretical probabilities?
(See Item 7 of Activity Sheet..)
KEY POINTS

Empirical probabilities (obtained from observing the proportion of times an event ocurrs in
repeated trials) may differ, but the long run frequency of empirical probabilities will
stabilize toward the theoretical probability. (As the number of trials increases, the
empirical probability tends to converge to the theoretical one).
For some situations, we can calculate the theoretical probabilities as geometric
probabilities, when events pertain to areas of geometric objects.
Sometimes, we associate probabilities subjectively, according to personal assessment of
likelihood of an event.

REFERENCES
Much of the material here adapted from:
Exploring Geometric Probabilities with Buffons Coin Problem Lesson Plan by Kady
Schneiter, Utah State University in Statistics Education Web (STEW) Online Journal of K-12
Statistics Lesson Plans. http://www.amstat.org/education/stew/pdfs/EGPBCP.pdf
Albert, J. R. G. (2008).Basic Statistics for the Tertiary Level (ed. Roberto Padua, Welfredo
Patungan, Nelia Marquez), published by Rex Bookstore.
Workbooks in Statistics 1: 11th Edition, Institute of Statistics, UP Los Banos, College Laguna
4031
http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/PDF/Probability4a.pdf
http://www.dlt.ncssm.edu/stem/sites/default/files/GeometricProbabilityexamples.pdf
http://www.dlt.ncssm.edu/stem/sites/default/files/GeometricProbabilitysolutions.pdf
ACTIVITY SHEET 2-02
Definitions:
1. Empirical probability: the proportion of times an event of interest occurs in a set number of
repetitions of an experiment.
2. Theoretical probability: the proportion of times an event of interest would be expected to
occur in an infinite number of repetitions of an experiment.
3. Geometric probability: a probability concerned with proportions of areas (lengths or
volumes) of geometric objects under specified conditions.
4. Subjective probability: a probability derived from an individual's personal assessment of the
situation on whether a specific outcome is likely to occur
Investigation:
Consider the question: What is the probability that a coin, tossed randomly at a grid, will land
entirely within a tile rather than across tile boundaries?

1. How would we be able to determine an empirical probability that a coin, thrown randomly at
a grid, will land entirely within a tile of a grid rather than across tile boundaries?

2. Work with your group to compute an empirical probability that the coin lands within a tile of
a grid. Record your observations below:
3. What would you expect to observe if the coin were to be tossed an infinite number of times at
the grid? Why would you expect to see this?

4. How would we compute the theoretical probability that a coin, thrown randomly at a grid,
will land entirely within a tile rather than across tile boundaries? How is this question different
from question 1?

5. What is the relationship between the empirical and theoretical probabilities?

6. Work with your group to compute the theoretical probability that the coin lands within a tile.
Record your work below:

7. Compare the empirical and theoretical probabilities you found. How do your results relate to
the conjecture you proposed in item 5?
Example Grid
ASSESSMENT 2-02

1. If a circle with diameter 20 cm is placed inside a square with a length 20 cm, what is
the chance that a dart thrown will land inside of the circle?

2 2
ANSWER: Area of Circle / Area of Square = ( (10) / (20) = 314 / 400 = 0.785

2. Suppose two numbers, x and y, are generated at random, where 0 < x < 5and 0<y<10 .
What is the probability that the sum is less than or equal to 2?

1
ANSWER: Area of Triangle / Area of Rectangle = ( 2 ( 2 ) ( 2 ) / (5(10)) = 2 / 50 =

0.04

3. A parachutist jumps from an airplane and lands in a square field that is 1 kilometers on each
side. In each corner of the field there is a large tree. The parachutists ropes will get tangled in
the tree if she/he lands within 1/10 kilometer of its trunk. What is the probability that she/he will
land in the field without getting caught in a tree?
Answer: To avoid getting caught in a tree, the parachutist must land in the region shaded below:
 1 2
area of field area of 4 corners ( )
Probability of not getting caught = ( )
area of field
(
area of field
)
= 1 10 =
1

0.968584