Ao Bimestre Demanda SES (0,1)

1 114 222.8
2 180 114.0
3 167 180.0
2004
4 215 167.0
5 232 215.0
6 222 232.0
1 167 222.0
2 207 167.0
3 198 207.0
2005
4 212 198.0
5 290 212.0
6 245 290.0
1 220 245.0
2 197 220.0
3 223 197.0
2006
4 290 223.0
5 321 290.0
6 310 321.0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 6
 alfa 1
MAPE SES PM (3) MAPE PM
95.4%
350
36.7%
7.8% 300
22.3% 153.7 28.5%
7.3% 187.3 19.3% 250
4.5% 204.7 7.8%
32.9% 223.0 33.5% 200
19.3% 207.0 0.0%
150
4.5% 198.7 0.3%
6.6% 190.7 10.1% 100
26.9% 205.7 29.1%
18.4% 233.3 4.8% 50
11.4% 249.0 13.2%
0
11.7% 251.7 27.7%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
11.7% 220.7 1.0%
23.1% 213.3 26.4%
9.7% 236.7 26.3%
3.5% 278.0 10.3%
14.2557% 15.9%
 120.0%

100.0%

80.0%
Error SES
60.0% Column D
ses(0.1)
40.0% PM(3)

20.0%

0.0%
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Tiempo Demanda SES PM (3) E(SES) E(PM)
1 50 47.3
2 35 47.6
3 42 46.3
4 45 45.9 42.3 2% 6%
5 45 45.8 40.7 2% 10%
6 55 45.7 44.0 17% 20%
7 56 46.6 48.3 17% 14%
8 46 47.6 52.0 3% 13%
9 42 47.4 52.3 13% 25%
10 57 46.9 48.0 18% 16%
10% 15%
Alpha 0.1

30%

25%

20%

15% Error PM
Error SES
10%

5%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 0.15 0.5
Semana Demanda SES (alpha = 0,15) SES (alpha = 0.5)
1 14 23.83
2 9 22.36
3 30 20.35
4 22 21.80
5 34 21.83
6 12 23.66 34
7 19 21.91 23.0
8 23 21.47 21.0
9 35 21.70 22.0
10 27 23.70 28.5
11 29 24.19 27.8
12 32 24.91 28.4
13 25.98 30.2
14 30.2
15 30.2
16 30.2