DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Sun Jul 04 19:51:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 87.31-88.21 86.96-88.76
EUR/USD 1.2480-1.2613 1.2397-1.2672
AUD/USD 0.8344-0.8491 0.8314-0.8510
NZD/USD 0.6791-0.6970 0.6691-0.6990
GBP/USD 1.5147-1.5229 1.5074-1.5390
USD/CHF 1.0575-1.0697 1.0499-1.0750
USD/CAD 1.0576-1.0678 1.0552-1.0746
EUR/JPY 109.44-110.72 109.12-110.88
EUR/GBP 0.8215-0.8299 0.8163-0.8368

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate amid negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index settled down
2.89 Friday at 84.427) as fears of slowing U.S. economic recovery intensified after U.S. June
nonfarm payrolls fell 125,000 (vs 110,00 decline expected), though unemployment rate edged
down to 9.5% from 9.7% in May (which appeared to be skewed by decline in civilian labor force
participation rate). Trading conditions thin as U.S. markets closed today for holiday. USD/JPY
also weighed by 1.4% fall in U.S. May factory orders for largest drop in 14 months (vs 0.8%
decline expected), Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by USD demand for
import settlements, higher U.S. Treasury yields, JPY-funded carry trades as risk aversion eases
(VIX fear down 8.34% to 30.12) after U.S. stocks pared losses to close modestly lower Friday
(DJIA off 0.47%, was down 1.21% at one stage). USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bearish,
but stochastics turning bullish at oversold; inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at
87.31 (Friday's low), then at 86.96 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to
psychological round numbers 86.00, 85.00, then 84.81 (Nov. 27 bottom). Resistance at 88.21
(Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 88.76 (Wednesday's high), then 89.00 (previous
base set May 20), 89.42-89.47 band (Tuesday's high-June 28 high), 89.77 (June 25 high) and
89.98 (June 24 high).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Pair supported by broad-based USD weakness,
easing investor concerns over euro zone's debt & fiscal woes after last week's successful Spanish,
French bond auctions & smaller-than-expected demand by euro-zone banks for ECB funds.
EUR/USD should continue to gain as "the euro has successfully navigated several risk events,
while U.S. economic data has disappointed," says UBS. Data focus: 0755 GMT German June
services PMI, 0800 GMT euro-zone June services PMI, 0900 GMT euro-zone may retail trade.
EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at
1.2613 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high), then
psychological 1.3000 (near 100-day moving average). Support at 1.2480 (Friday's low); breach
would expose downside to 1.2397 (previous cap set June 28), then 1.2324 (hourly chart), 1.2192
(Thursday's low), 1.2164 (Wednesday's low) and 1.2149 (Tuesday's low).

AUD/USD - to range-trade. Pair supported by bearish USD sentiment, Aussie-U.S. yield gap;
but gains tempered by weaker commodity prices (CRB spot index ended down 1.73 Friday at
254.48), lingering worries about slowdown in China's economic growth. Data focus: 0100 GMT
June TD Securities Australia monthly inflation gauge, 0130 GMT June ANZ job ads, 0200 GMT
June VFACTS vehicle sales. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics
turning bullish at oversold. Support at 0.8344 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to
0.8314 (Thursday's low), then 0.8265 (June 10 low), 0.8193 (June 9 low) and 0.8086 (June 8
reaction low). Resistance at 0.8491 (hourly chart), then at 0.8510 (Friday's high); breach would
expose upside to 0.8566 (Wednesday's high), then 0.8593 (previous base set June 25), 0.8721
(Tuesday's high) and 0.8776-0.8780 band (June 28 high-June 23 high).

NZD/USD - to range-trade. Pair supported by negative USD sentiment, Kiwi-U.S. yield

advantage, expectations RBNZ will hike rates by 25 bps at its review later this month. But
NZD/USD gains tempered by worries over China economic growth slowdown, weaker
commodity prices. NZD/USD daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics in bearish
mode, but latter near oversold. Support at 0.6791 (Thursday's low); breach would expose
downside to 0.6691 (June 10 low), then 0.6608 (June 9 low) and 0.6569 (June 8 reaction
low).Resistance at 0.6970 (Friday's high), then at 0.6990 (previous base set June 25); breach
would expose upside to 0.7085 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7122 (200-day moving average) and
0.7162 (June 23 reaction high).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Pair underpinned by bearish USD sentiment; but
gains tempered by concerns over negative impact of fiscal tightening on UK economic growth.
Data focus: 0830 GMT UK June CIPS services PMI, UK June official reserves. GBP/USD daily
chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode, but latter at overbought.
Resistance at 1.5229 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5390 (April 30 reaction
high), then 1.5498 (April 26 reaction high) and 1.5523 (April 15 reaction high). Support at
1.5147 (Friday's low); breach would temper near-term positive outlook, exposing downside to
1.5074 (hourly chart), then 1.4871 (Thursday's low), 1.4854 (June 25 low), 1.4833 (55-day
moving average) and 1.4800 (June 23 low).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias. Pair weighed by broad-based USD weakness; but
losses tempered by CHF sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross. Data focus: 0715 GMT Swiss
May retail sales. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics stay
suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CHF trading near-term. Support at
1.0583-1.0575 band (Friday's low-Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0499
(April 14 reaction low), then 1.0431 (April 1 reaction low) and 1.0127 Jan. 11 reaction low).
Resistance at 1.0697 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0750 (hourly chart), then
1.0788 (Thursday's high), 1.0854 (Wednesday's high), 1.0903 (Tuesday's high) and 1.0941 (June
28 high, matching 100-day moving average).

USD/CAD - to consolidate. Pair underpinned by weaker commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude
settled down 81 cents Friday at $72.14/bbl); but gains tempered by weaker global USD.
USD/CAD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought.
Support at 1.0576 (hourly chart), then at 1.0552 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside
to 1.0461 (Wednesday's low), then 1.0422 (200-day moving average), 1.0358 (55-day moving
average), 1.0338 (Tuesday's low) and 1.0315 (June 28 low). Resistance at 1.0668-1.0678 band
(Friday's high-June 7 reaction high); breach would expose upside to 1.0746 (May 26 high), then
1.0851 (May 25 reaction high).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Cross supported by improved EUR
sentiment as concerns ease over euro-zone banking system and debt crisis. Daily chart positive-
biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at 110.72 (Friday's high), then at
110.81-110.88 band (June 28 high-June 25 high); breach would expose upside to 111.36 (June
23 high), then 112.45 (June 22 high) and 113.41 (June 21 reaction high). Support at 109.44
(Friday's low), then at 109.12 (previous cap set Wednesday); breach would expose downside to
108.06 (hourly chart), then 107.47 (Thursday's low), 107.30 (Tuesday's 9-year low) and 106.76
(Nov. 8, 2001 reaction low).

EUR/GBP - to trade with risks skewed higher. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising
from oversold, MACD bullish; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 0.8285 Friday.
Resistance at 0.8299 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8368 (June 22 high), then
0.8382 (June 17 reaction high), 0.8425 (previous base set May 6) and 0.8445 (55-day moving
average). Support at 0.8215 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8163 (Thursday's
low), then 0.8065 (Tuesday's 19-month low), psychological 0.8000 and 0.7807 (Oct. 21, 2008
reaction low).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)