Overpopulation : A Menace

To,
Principal Secretary, Medical health and Family Welfare
Government of Uttar Pradesh
By,
Faisal Mahamadsharif Patil
St Xavier's College, Mumbai
Date: November 15,2015

Problem definition:
Perhaps one of the biggest home-grown obstacles to India's growth story is the rising birth
rate. It also ranks as one of the most challenging policy problem concerning analysts. A rising
population will have a direct effect on the resources of the country. Add to that an already
burdened infrastructure and the result is quite clear. Current levels of infrastructure and
resources will be hard pressed to keep up with the demand of a rising population. Current
estimates also show that India is poised to overtake China as the most populous country by
2022 and that the population can only be expected to stabilise somewhere around 20501.
Considering the statistics at face value, this poses a demographic dilemma to the entire
country as a whole.
The problem is not just something that needs to dealt with in the long term but also demands
attention in the very present. Population explosion is a result of a wide variety of factors. As
such, It will not do to relegate the issue to a single cause. For instance, a higher survival rate,
which could be said to be one of the causes of an increase in population, can be in turn
attributed to an overall improvement in healthcare. Similarly, socio-religious factors may
encourage families to stay away from contraceptives and other child limiting options.
Not only infrastructure but other resources would become scare as well. For the developed
world, that is able to provide job opportunities congruent to the abilities of its populace, an
increase in the rate of population growth can be utilised to boost the countries production
capabilities and for expansion of its established sectors. This is in contrast to the state in
which countries such as India are currently at. With an economy that is still in its adolescence
coupled with little scope for fruitful employment, There are millions of people who are
unable to sustain their livelihoods2. The relationship between a large unemployed population
and the overall development of the country is not hard to decipher. Unless curtailed , it has
the capacity to derail the country's much touted forward thrust.
Uttar Pradesh being a leader in India's population growth story will be the primary focus of
this paper. Consider this. If Uttar Pradesh were to be an independent country, it would rank
fifth in the world in terms of overall population3. It is prudent that we not only look at the
broad picture of overpopulation but also try and understand the intricacies of the issue at
hand. In my understanding, A micro approach is better poised to tackle the issue.

1 United Nations, Department of economics and social affairs, Population division(2015)

2 Indian population: Boon or Bane, Zain Awani(ASI)(2015)
3 Indo-Asian News Service, April 12(2003)

Major factors responsible for Overpopulation:

1.)Early marriage practices: Even though the legal age for marriage of girls is 18 years, A
vast majority of the marriages take place before the girl turns 184. In fact, In Uttar Pradesh,
over 64% of the girls are married before they reach the legal age limit. This eventually leads
to a high fertility rate among the female population and increases the probability of bearing
multiple children. Additionally, the cultural norms dictate that a girl child be married off as
soon as she is deemed capable of bearing children.
2.)Socio cultural norms: The rural population is much more susceptible to age old cultural
beliefs that prohibit the consumption of contraceptives and other family planning methods on
the grounds that it goes against the will of Nature/God. Another norm that is highly relevant
to the Indian context is the importance given to the male child5. As sons are usually
considered as the primary bread earners, families are often wont to produce children until a
male child is born.
3.)Illegal Migration: As a result of the socio-political scenario in the South Asian region, the
instances of people fleeing their home country and settling in India have always been present.
However, in recent years, the trend of illegal migration has gone down as a result of border
policing measures. Uttar Pradesh, due to its proximity to the border with Nepal has borne a
significant chunk of the migrant population.6
4.) Poverty and Lack of awareness: The extreme poverty has given risen to practices
wherein families are of the belief that larger the number of children, higher will be the overall
revenue earned by the family as a whole. Additionally, dismal health and medical facilities
increase the probability of the children dying prematurely. Faced with such a scenario the
poor are of the view that having a higher number of offspring puts them in a better position to
support themselves during old age. A majority of the poor also are unaware about
contraceptives and the significant few that do are unwilling to exercise the option.
Even though the overall population growth rate has registered a decrease 5.76 percent, Uttar
Pradesh still remains the leader in the overall population statistics.7
4 UNICEF, Child marriage in India-An analysis(2012)
5 DISCRIINATION OF THE GIRL CHILD IN UTTAR PRADESH, Social action forum for Manav Adhikar
6 Global Migrant Origin database(2007)
7 Census, Directorate of census operations(2011)

A number of policies have been passed in order to deal with the threat of overpopulation.
Primary among the policies adopted by the State government of Uttar Pradesh was the
Population Policy of 2001. The Uttar Pradesh population policy(UPPP) was tasked with
achieving replacement level of fertility by 2016. The targeted areas in order to achieve
stabilisation were reduction in Infant and maternal mortality. Additionally, A reduction in
overall fertility rate from 4.3 in 1997 to 2.1 in 2016 was also expected to be achieved8. The
above mentioned objectives were to be achieved by way of a direct grass root awareness
model, where in the respective CMO's were due to submit population control plans based on
the local specifications. The private sector had also been envisioned to participate in the form
of NGO's and co-operative societies.9
The National Population policy(2000) on the other hand, took on a more broad based
approach to solving the crisis. It sought to target the factors that overall led to children being
married off at an early age. For instance, by making school education compulsory till the age
of 14, the policy hoped to reduce the number of dropouts in primary and secondary schools.
Incorporation of the indigenous schools of medicine such as Unani, Ayurvedic and
Homeopathy in the provision of reproductive healthcare services was also envisioned as a
method of generating awareness.10
In this paper, the policy will aim to induce awareness amongst the populace, particularly the
rural areas.
Policy alternatives:
During the course of the deliberation over the possible policy alternatives, we will be
assuming ideal conditions of performance in the social and political space. Therefore, lacunae
accruing as a result of inefficient administration are not being considered as a variable.
1.)Community involvement: Nearly 64 percent of girls in Uttar Pradesh are married off
before the age of 1811. Marriage at such a young age not only results in the probability of a
larger number of children being born but also increases the chances of maternal and infant
mortality. A practical increase in the age of marriage would only be possible if the social
conditions are given adequate thought and with the involvement of the community at large.

8 Uttar Pradesh Population policy(2001)

9 Indo-Asian News Service(2003)
10 National Population policy(2000)
11 Child marriage in India, UNICEF

Religious leaders and other notable members of the society need to bought on board and their
services utilised in order to convince the people on the benefits of a small family. Electronic
media also plays a vital role in influencing the beliefs of people and can be leveraged to
disseminate awareness and information on the ill effects of marriage at an early age.
2.) Targeted sterilization programmes: The current practice of a Target free approach to
sterilisations can be stepped up to include defined targets. In addition to the community
efforts by health workers, a voluntary sterilisation service is integral in bringing the birth rate
under control. Setting up of RCH(Reproductive child health) and CHC(Community health
centres) camps along with sterilisation camps to provide counselling services based on the
lines of the UPPP can be undertaken. In order to identify suitable candidates for the
programme, public records detailing the women who have previously availed of Medical
Termination of Pregnancies(MTP) in the past can be made use of. Such a group will have a
much higher probability to go in for family planning. A periodic review of such camps will
enable the authorities to target areas that have not yet been targeted or those that are in need
of additional assistance.
3.) Public-Private partnerships: The PPP model is based on combining the flexibility of the
private organised and unorganised sector along with the systemic superiority of the
Government run institutions. Providing incentives to NGO's that are not as of yet involved in
Child health care by providing adequate resources along with recognizing and rewarding
innovation will encourage NGO's to actively take part. By linking the service delivery system
of the NGO's with the Public sector, the referral system can be made more streamlined. The
organised sector's management strengths coupled with the infrastructure available at their
disposal could be used to set up additional RCH and CHC centres.
Criteria: After we have stated the three policy alternatives, We shall enumerate the criteria
on which the alternatives will be judged.
Cost Effective analysis: The extent to which the policy in question will affect the factors
responsible for increased population.
Political Acceptability: Are the alternatives politically acceptable.
Financial Sustainability: Source of funding and financial feasibility.
General Outreach: To what degree are the perceived benefits reaching the populace.

The table below seeks to project the outcomes of the policy process. Each criterion has a
weightage listed alongside in parenthesis with the total weight listed in the last column to the
right.
Policy

CE
Analysis(5)

Political
Acceptability(5
)

Financial
General
sustainability(2) Outreach(3)

Total(15)

Community
Involvement

1.5

1.5

10

Grass root
effectiveness

Conducive to
the political
Climate.

Marginal
investment vis-vis other
programmes

Scepticism in
the populace

Inherent distrust
could derail the
effectiveness.

2.5

2.5

Success is a
variable
dependent on
the people
Disregard for
the mechanism
and disinterest
possible
2

A step up from
a target free
approach

Govt will have

to allocate the
resources
necessary.
Financially
straining for the
government.

RCH's and
CHC's may
work to spread
the message
Possible
hurdles in
enacting the
programme.

Acceptance as a
strong decision.
Reaffirms the
govt's role.
May underscore
people's right to
decide the time
and spacing of
sterilizations
2.5

Govt will take

up a major part
of the
functioning.

PPP partnerships
will expand the
scope of the
programmes.

Shared
responsibilities
allows for cost
savings.

Private sector
organisations
may be distant
in their
approach to the
problem

Anti- private
sentiment may
cause
disagreements
and hurdles in
implementation.

A major burden
will still have to
borne by the
public sector.

Multiple
mediums allow
for
dissemination
of the
information.
Contradictory
signals from
multiple
sources may
cloud the real
agenda.

Targeted
Sterilization
programmes

Social stigma
may deter
people from
going forward
Public Private
Partnership

9.5

The above results show that a grass root level community involvement programme will have
benefits exceeding those of a targeted sterilisation approach. The community level approach
also scores marginally higher than the Public private partnership model. The Community
model ranks higher as it takes a more nuanced, from the ground up view of public policy.
However, to believe that the other approaches will not work at all is a fallacy. Combining the
acceptability of the community approach with workings from Targeted sterilisations offers a
much more realistic model.
The Outcomes expected from the implementation of the above policy measures are:
1.) An increased awareness about the legal age limit and implementation of the same in
conjunction with local community elders and the panchayat.
2.) To ensure that the local governing bodies start maintaining records of the marriages
conducted.
3.)Encourage couples with unmet needs to opt for contraceptives.
4.) To bring down the number of girls being married before the legal age limit from 64% to
50 % in the next 3 years.
Drawbacks: The Policy is not significantly geared towards the economically well off and
thus does not provide them adequate incentives to reduce family size. The policy
recommendations however do deal with the majority of the population of the State of Uttar
Pradesh, namely those that are not financially stable.
Conclusions : Rather than take a direct approach to the problem of overpopulation and
suggest intervention, a grassroots initiative such as the one suggested above will work as
positive reinforcement techniques. The recommendations work to solve the root cause of
overpopulation i.e. the need to have more children. Educating the people about possible ways
to avert pregnancies and the methods of contraception. The current population Policy of Uttar
Pradesh(2001) needs urgent revision and a need for a more basic approach to tackle the rising
population. The Public Private Partnership and a targeted sterilisation programme can be
further explored once the community is made aware of the need to maintain small families.

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