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POLITICS

DonaldTrumpThrustsTaiwanBackon
theTable,RattlingaRegion
ByMARKLANDLER DEC.3,2016

WASHINGTONOverthepasttwodecades,Taiwanhasslippedfromitsposition
atopthelistofflashpointsinthecomplexrelationshipbetweentheUnitedStates
andChina.InmeetingsbetweenPresidentObamaandPresidentXiJinpingof
China,ithastypicallycomeupafterhalfadozenmorepressingissues,liketrade,
cyberattacksandBeijingsaggressivemovesintheSouthChinaSea.
Now,though,inasingleprotocolshatteringphonecallwiththepresidentof
Taiwan,PresidentelectDonaldJ.Trumphasthrustitbackonthetable.Notsince
PresidentRichardM.NixonmetwithMaoZedongin1972whenthetwoissued
theShanghaiCommuniquclarifyingthestatusofTaiwanhasanAmericanleader
soshakenupthediplomaticstatusquoontheissue.
TaiwanisabouttobecomeamoreprominentfeatureoftheoverallU.S.China
relationship,saidJonM.Huntsman,whoservedasambassadortoChinaduring
Mr.Obamasfirstterm.Asabusinessman,DonaldTrumpisusedtolookingfor
leverageinanyrelationship.APresidentTrumpislikelytoseeTaiwanasauseful
leveragepoint.
Intheshortrun,Mr.Trumphasrattledtheentireregion.Representativesof
severalAsiancountriescontactedtheWhiteHouseonSaturdaytoexpressconcern,
accordingtoasenioradministrationofficial.

Inthelongerterm,officialsintheObamaadministrationworrythattheepisode
couldnotjustignitetensionsacrosstheTaiwanStraitbutalsoinflametrade
relationsandemboldenChinaintheSouthChinaSea,whereithasclashedwiththe
Philippines,Vietnamandotherneighborsovercompetingclaimstoreefsandshoals.
Mr.TrumpexpressednomisgivingsabouttakingthecallfromPresidentTsai
Ingwen,whichwasarrangedbeforehandattheinitiativeoftheTaiwanese
government,notMr.Trumpscamp.
Mr.Trumpbridledatsuggestionsthathehadcommittedafauxpas,writingon
TwitteronFridayeveningthatitwasinterestinghowtheU.S.sellsTaiwanbillions
ofdollarsofmilitaryequipmentbutIshouldnotacceptacongratulatorycall.
NordidMr.TrumporhisaidesmakeagesturetoreaffirmtheOneChinapolicy,
muchtothechagrinoftheWhiteHouse.ItfelltoaspokesmanfortheNational
SecurityCounciltoaffirmthattheUnitedStateswasnotchangingthepolicy.Under
thatpolicy,theUnitedStatesformallyrecognizedthePeoplesRepublicofChinain
1979,abrogatingitstieswithTaiwan,astheChineseleader,DengXiaoping,sought
tobolsterChinaseconomyandcreateclosertiestotheWest.
WhetherMr.Trumpviewsthecallasthebeginningofachangeinapproach
towardTaiwanisnotclear.Apersonclosetohiminsistedthathewasjustbeing
politeintakingMs.Tsaiscall.ButStephenYates,aformerdeputynationalsecurity
advisertoVicePresidentDickCheneywhoisadvisingtheTrumptransition,saidin
aninterviewthatpeoplearoundMr.Trumpwerewellawareofthenuancesof
AmericanpolicytowardTaiwan.
AmonghardlineRepublicans,therehasalwaysbeenapushtoconfrontChina
byreachingouttoTaiwan.InastatementonFriday,SenatorTomCotton,the
ArkansasRepublicanwhowasbrieflybelievedtobeacandidateforMr.Trumps
defensesecretary,praisedhimfortakingthecall,sayingitreaffirmsour
commitmenttotheonlydemocracyonChinesesoil.
PresidentRonaldReaganantagonizedChinabyinvitingadelegationfrom
Taiwantohisinauguration.AidestoPresidentGeorgeW.Bushpressedhimtotake
amoreconfrontationalapproachwithChinauntiltheattacksofSept.11reordered

hispriorities,increasingtheneedforhimtocultivateChinaoncounterterrorismand
otherissues.
TensionsoverTaiwanpeakedunderaDemocraticpresident,BillClinton,who
inMarch1996orderedtwoaircraftcarrierbattlegroupsintotheTaiwanStraitafter
Chinaconductedmissileteststointimidatetheisland.
ForsomeChinaexperts,shakingupthecrossstraitrelationshipwouldnotbe
theworstthingintheworld.WehavehadastatusquoofsortsintheTaiwanStrait
thathaskeptthepeace,butitrecentlyhasnotlookedallthatdurable,norwasitvery
agreeabletomostcitizensofdemocraticTaiwan,saidOrvilleSchell,thedirectorof
theCenteronU.S.ChinaRelationsattheAsiaSociety.
WhetheranewkindofTrumpianbrinkmanshipwillnowcauseChinato
reconsideritshardlinepositiontowardsTaiwan,ortorespondinadangerousand
militantway,remainstobeseen,hesaid.
Mr.TrumphasspokenharshlyaboutChina,accusingitofconcoctingclimate
changeasahoaxtoundercutAmericanmanufacturers,brandingitacurrency
manipulator(whenitinfactistryingtopropitscurrencyup),andthreateningto
imposea45percenttariffonChinesegoods.Mr.Trumpstradeadvisershavealso
advocatedpunitiveresponsestowhattheyportrayasunfairChineseactions.
Afewdaysafterhewaselected,however,Mr.TrumpspokewithChinas
president,Mr.Xi,andreleasedastatementafterwardthatsaidthetwomenhada
clearsenseofmutualrespect.
TaiwanisalsolikelytoseekacloserrelationshipwiththeUnitedStates.After
yearsofaKuomintanggovernment,whichpursuedcloserChinaties,Taiwanelected
Ms.TsaiasitssecondpresidentfromtheproindependenceDemocraticProgressive
Party.AnalystssaidthatMs.Tsai,thoughnotafirebrand,wasseekingtodiversify
Taiwanseconomicpartnersandcarveoutmorespaceforitininternationalaffairs.
TherearealsolingeringquestionsaboutMr.Trumpsbusinessdealingsin
Taiwan.ThenewsmediatherehasreportedthattheTrumpOrganizationsenta
representativetoTaiwantoexplorebuildingaluxuryhotelinagovernmentbacked

developmentnearTaipeisairport,thoughanofficialwiththeTrumpOrganization
saiditwasnotplanninganyexpansionintoTaiwan.
TheTrumpOrganizationdoesnotdisputethatoneofitsemployeesassigned
topromotehotelsalesrelatedtoAsiawasinTaipei,thecapital,inOctoberfora
workrelatedvisit.Thedutiesoftheexecutive,AnneMarieDonoghue,includetrying
tofindguestsforthecompanyshotelsworldwide,andsheisnotinvolvedin
developingnewrealestateprojectsforTrumpHotels.
FortheChinesegovernment,asformanyothergovernmentsaroundtheworld,
Mr.Trumpsfreewheelingdiplomacyposesachallenge.Atfirst,Chinasforeign
minister,WangYi,playeddowntheepisode,sayingitwasapettyactionbythe
TaiwansidethatwouldnotupsetthelongstandingpolicyofOneChina.
Buthourslater,theChineseForeignMinistrylodgedaformalcomplaintwith
theObamaadministration.IturgedtheUnitedStatestohandleissuesrelatedto
Taiwancarefullyandproperlytoavoidcausingunnecessaryinterferencetothe
overallU.S.Chinarelationship.
DavidShambaugh,thedirectoroftheChinapolicyprogramatGeorge
WashingtonUniversity,saidBeijingsmeasuredresponsemadesense.Buthesaid
thatiftheTrumpadministrationtookmoreconcretestepstochangetimetested
waysofdealingwithTaiwan,theycanexpectadditionalpushbackfromChina.
ReportingwascontributedbyEricLiptonfromWashington,MaggieHabermanand
MeganTwoheyfromNewYork,andMichaelForsythefromTaoyuan,Taiwan.
AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonDecember4,2016,onpageA1oftheNewYorkeditionwiththe
headline:TrumpThrustsTaiwanIntoGlare,RattlingAsia.

2016TheNewYorkTimesCompany