Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Distribuciones de Probabilidad
Distribuciones de Probabilidad
de
retorno
distribuciones:
1. Distribucin
2. Distribucin
3. Distribucin
4. Distribucin
de
100
aos
con
las
siguientes
Log Normal.
Valores Extremos Tipo I (Gumbel)
Pearson III.
Log Pearson III.
DESARROLLO
AO
Qmax
(m3/s)
log10(Qm
ax) (m3/s)
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
230
150
420
350
225
315
300
250
125
222
304
275
255
286
301
265
288
2,362
2,176
2,623
2,544
2,352
2,498
2,477
2,398
2,097
2,346
2,483
2,439
2,407
2,456
2,479
2,423
2,459
x=
sx=
cv=
csx=
y=
sy=
csy=
268,294
69,147
0,258
-0,124
2,413
0,126
-1,143
k =1 1
1 1
=0.01
100
k 0.01=2.33
2
1+Cu
ln ( 2)
( 1
ln ( 1+Cu 2 )
k
exp
kT =
1+0.2582
ln ( 2)
( 1
ln ( 1+0.2582 )
2.33
exp
kT =
k =2.905
m3
s
Lmites de Confianza
logQRT t (1 ) Se
Se=
sy
n
kT
2
= 1+
2 0.5
= 1+
2.33
2
2 0.5
=1.93
Se=
1.930.126
=0.059
17
t ( 1 )=1.645
log ( 508.84 ) 1.6450.059
2.70659 0.097 ;
log[2.60959 2.80358]
m3
Rango de Validez=[406.996 636.18]
s
2. Distribucin Valores Extremos Tipo I (Gumbel)
QTR100 =Q+ sQkT
kT(n,Tr) ; kT(17,100)
Interpolacin
x1=15
y1=4.005
x=17
y=?
x2=20
y2= 3.836
(xx 1)( y 2 y 1)
y=
+y1
(x 2x 1)
y=
(1715)(3.8364.005)
+3.836=3.9374=kT
(x 2x 1)
m3
s
6sx
669.15
;=
=53.92
U=x0.5772 ; U=268.290.577253.92=237.17
Tr
Tr1
100
1001
ln =4.6
ln ; yT =ln
yT =ln
XTR 100 =237.17+69.154.6
XTR 100 =555.26
m3
s
Lmites de Confianza
lnXTR t ( 1 ) Se
Se=
sy
n
0.5
4.8530.126
=0.148
17
t ( 1 )=1.645
ln ( 555.26)1.6450.0148
6.32 0.243 ; ln[6.077 6.563]
m3
Rango de Validez=[435.720708.394 ]
s
3. Distribucin Pearson III
QTR100 =Q+ sQkT
kT(cs,Tr) ; kT(-0.0728,100)
Interpolacin
x1=0
y1=2.326
x=-0.0728 y=?
x2=-0.1
y2= 2.525
(xx 1)( y 2 y 1)
y=
+y1
(x 2x 1)
y=
(0.07280)(2.5252.326)
+2.326=2.471=kT
(0.10)
m3
s
Lmites de Confianza
QRT t ( 1 ) Se
Se=
sy
n
= 1+
Se=
kT 2
2
0.5
1+
2.4712
2
2.01369.15
=33.761
17
t ( 1 )=1.645
0.5
) =2.013
439.16 1.64533.761
439.17 55.536 ;
Rango de Validez=[383.624494.696]
(0.06720)
y=
yTR100 =2.413+0.1262.276
yTR100 =2.7
m3
s
2.7
Lmites de Confianza
yRT t ( 1 ) Se
Se=
sy
n
kT 2
= 1+
2
Se=
0.5
2.276 2
; = 1+
2
1.8950.126
=0.0579
17
t ( 1 )=1.645
0.5
) =1.895
m3
s
2.7 1.6450.0579
m3
s
CONCLUSIONES
Resultados:
Ley de distribucin
Log Normal
Caudal
ajustado (m3/s)
508.84
406.996 636.18
555.26
Gumbel
Rango de validez
435.720708.394
Pearson III
439.16
383.624494.696
501.187
402.022624.022
Bibliografa