12/19/2016

Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

DohighlevelsofCO2inthe
pastcontradictthewarming
effectofCO2?
WhatTheScienceSays:
WhenCO2levelswerehigherinthepast,solarlevels
werealsolower.ThecombinedeffectofsunandCO2
matcheswellwithclimate.
ClimateMyth:CO2washigherinthepast
"ThekillerproofthatCO2doesnotdriveclimateistobe
foundduringtheOrdovicianSilurianandtheJurassic
CretaceousperiodswhenCO2levelsweregreaterthan
4000ppmv(partspermillionbyvolume)andabout2000
ppmvrespectively.IftheIPCCtheoryiscorrectthere
shouldhavebeenrunawaygreenhouseinducedglobal
warmingduringtheseperiodsbutinsteadtherewas
glaciation."
(TheLavoisierGroup)
OvertheEarth'shistory,therearetimeswhere
atmosphericCO2ishigherthancurrentlevels.Intriguingly,the
planetexperiencedwidespreadregionsofglaciationduring
someofthoseperiods.Doesthiscontradictthewarming
effectofCO2?No,foronesimplereason.CO2isnottheonly
driverofclimate.Tounderstandpastclimate,weneedto
includeotherforcingsthatdriveclimate.Todothis,onestudy

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Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

piecedtogether490proxyrecordstoreconstructCO2
levelsoverthelast540millionyears(Royer2006).This
periodisknownasthePhanerozoiceon.

Figure1:AtmosphericCO2throughthePhanerozoic.Dashed
lineshowspredictionsoftheGEOCARBcarboncyclemodel
withgreyshadingrepresentinguncertaintyrange.Solidline
showssmoothedrepresentationoftheproxyrecord(Royer
2006).
AtmosphericCO2levelshavereachedspectacularvaluesin
thedeeppast,possiblytoppingover5000ppminthelate
Ordovicianaround440millionyearsago.However,solar
activityalsofallsasyougofurtherback.Intheearly
Phanerozoic,solaroutputwasabout4%lessthancurrent
levels.ThecombinedneteffectfromCO2andsolarvariations
areshowninFigure2.Periodsofgeographicallywidespread
iceareindicatedbyshadedareas.

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Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

Figure2:CombinedradiativeforcingfromCO2andsun
throughthePhanerozoic.Valuesareexpressedrelativeto
preindustrialconditions(CO2=280ppmsolarluminosity=
342W/m2).Thedarkshadedbandscorrespondtoperiods
withstrongevidenceforgeographicallywidespreadice.
PeriodsoflowCO2coincidewithperiodsofgeographically
widespreadice(withonenotableexception,discussed
below).ThisleadstotheconceptoftheCO2icethreshold
theCO2levelrequiredtoinitiateaglaciation.Whenthesunis
lessactive,theCO2icethresholdismuchhigher.For
example,whiletheCO2icethresholdforpresentdayEarthis
estimatedtobe500ppm,theequivalentthresholdduringthe
LateOrdovician(450millionyearsago)is3000ppm.
However,untilrecently,CO2levelsduringthelateOrdovician
werethoughttobemuchgreaterthan3000ppmwhichwas
problematicastheEarthexperiencedglacialconditionsatthis
time.TheCO2datacoveringthelateOrdovicianissparse
withonedatapointintheCO2proxyrecordclosetothis
periodithasavalueof5600ppm.Giventhatsolaroutput

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Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

wasaround4%lowerthancurrentlevels,CO2wouldneedto
fallto3000ppmtopermitglacialconditions.CouldCO2levels
havefallenthisfar?Giventhelowtemporalresolutionofthe
CO2record,thedatawasnotconclusive.
Researchexaminingstrontiumisotopesinthesediment
recordshedmorelightonthisquestion(Young2009).Rock
weatheringremovesCO2fromtheatmosphere.Theprocess
alsoproducesaparticularisotopeofstrontium,
washeddowntotheoceansviarivers.Theratioofstrontium
isotopesinsedimentlayerscanbeusedtoconstructaproxy
recordofcontinentalweatheringactivity.Thestrontiumrecord
showsthataroundthemiddleOrdovician,weatherability
increasedleadingtoanincreasedconsumptionofCO2.
However,thiswasbalancedbyincreasedvolcanicoutgassing
addingCO2totheatmosphere.Around446millionyearsago,
volcanicactivitydroppedwhilerockweatheringremained
high.ThiscausedCO2levelstofallbelow3000ppm,initiating
cooling.ItturnsoutfallingCO2levelswasthecauseoflate
Ordovicianglaciation.
Soweseethatcomparisonsofpresentdayclimatetoperiods
500millionyearsagoneedtotakeintoaccountthatthesun
waslessactivethannow.Whatabouttimescloserto
home?ThelasttimeCO2wassimilartocurrentlevelswas
around3millionyearsago,duringthePliocene.Backthen,
CO2levelsremainedataround365to410ppmforthousands
ofyears.Arctictemperatureswere11to16Cwarmer(Csank
2011).Globaltemperaturesoverthisperiodisestimatedtobe
3to4Cwarmerthanpreindustrialtemperatures.Sealevels
werearound25metreshigherthancurrentsealevel(Dwyer
2008).

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Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

IfclimatescientistswereclaimingCO2wastheonlydriverof
climate,thenhighCO2duringglacialperiodswouldbe
problematic.ButanyclimatescientistwilltellyouCO2isnot
theonlydriverofclimate.ClimatologistDanaRoyersaysit
best:"thegeologicrecordcontainsatreasuretroveof
'alternativeEarths'thatallowscientiststostudyhowthe
variouscomponentsoftheEarthsystemrespondtoarange
ofclimaticforcings."PastperiodsofhigherCO2donot
contradictthenotionthatCO2warmsglobaltemperatures.On
thecontrary,theyconfirmtheclosecouplingbetweenCO2
andclimate.
IntermediaterebuttalwrittenbyJohnCook
UpdateJuly2015:
Here is a related lecturevideo from Denial101x Making
SenseofClimateScienceDenial
UQx DENIAL101x 4.2.4.1 Ancient CO2 levels

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