Documentos de Académico
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February 2007
Deutsche Bank
Disclaimer
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shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
Summary
* Investor expresses a bearish view on the subprime US RMBS market (or the US Consumer or
US Home Prices) by shorting (or buying protection on) selected Home Equity ABS credits
* We believe this product is the most efficient way to express these views; more efficient than
shorting stocks of homebuilders, REITs, the S&P 500, etc. We are interested in hearing of other
ideas
* Since 2003, spreads for Baa3 and Baa2 have compressed. But if anything, risk of a housing
bubble / defaults has only increased with the continued proliferation of alternative mortgage
products such as IOs, silent seconds, stated-income loans and option ARMs. These products
have become quite popular as home price increases until very recently outstripped wage
growth. The percentage of subprime mortgages originated that were 10 mortgages grew from
virtually zero in 2002 to around 30% in 2005 and 2006. The percentage of subprime mortgages
originated that were stated-income mortgages grew from around 25% in 2000 and 2001 to over
40% in 2005 and 2006. Mortgages with 40 or even 50-year terms were recently introduced, and
have quickly become popular in subprime lending.
* After a brief widening near the end of 2005, spreads for Baa2 and Baa3 home equity bonds
tightened for most of the first half of 2006, reflecting strong demand from CDOs. Demand from
CDOs is a result of worldwide excess capital chasing yieldy products. Such demand, may
prove elusive in an adverse market environment. Spread tightening lost its momentum in April,
as the CDO's arbitrage has been squeezed. Infact, spreads gradually widened out from May to
August. As the housing data has become increasingly bearish, this widening trend accelerated
in September with Baa3 spreads nearly 100 bp wider than the April tights. After a brief rebound
in October, spreads resumed widening again in November and December.
Deutsche Banik
numbers will be
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
3
Summary (continued)
* It is increasingly evident that the housing boom in the past 10 years has come to its end. The
Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders showed a steep decline in recent
months to a level that hasn't been seen since 1991, when the nation was experiencing a
housing recession. Other indicators such as housing starts and building permits have also seen
steep declines in recent months. New and existing home sales indices from the National
Association of Realtors, which had experienced virtually incessant rises in recent years, also
have lost their momentum and have even dropped in recent months.
-n
* Though each deal has certain idiosyncrasies that on the margin make one deal better or worse,
from a default perspective, the risk in the asset class remains a macroeconomic risk - e.g. all
pools have thousands of loans and are geographically dispersed with similar credit scoring
models and underwriting procedures across issuers with defaults ultimately driven by 3 things:
home prices, interest rates (payment shocks and ability to refinance/move) and unemployment
* Historical data show that losses in subprime mortgage collateral are strongly negatively
correlated with home price appreciation, both in default frequency and severity. In a scenario
where home prices grow significantly slower than what has been seen in the past few years,
especially in high growth states such as California and Florida, one may expect losses to be
substantially higher than what has been experienced in the recent past. The result could be
more dramatic should prices actually decline
* Rating agencies' rating models for subprime mortgage lending criteria and bond subordination
levels are based largely on performance experience that has mostly accumulated since the
mid-1 990s, when the nation's housing market has been booming
* In a flat housing market, most subprime RMBS rated BBB- or BBB may come under severe
stress. Dramatic spread widening, downgrades or even loss of principal and interest could
result. Already there have been a few 2005 and. 2006 deals either downgraded or placed on
downgrade watch. Previously, rating actions on structured products within two years of their
issuance were virtually unheard of.
Cj2
t h
Deutsche Banik
All numbers shown inthis presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
00
00
Deutsche Bank
1/
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
5
a)
S60
Q 50
40
30
20 +1989
1991
1993
1995
1999
1997
2001
2003
2005
2007
Deutsche Banik
rN
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
6
1642
1596
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1982
1984
1986
1988
1992
1990
1994
--
Housing Starts
1996
Housing Permit
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
7
400
3500 300 -
-~200
In the past, peaks of HPI above trendline tended to be followed quickly by housing recessions
HP
150 -
bove trendline
HPI 9% above
trendline
<) 100 -
.Long-tern
50
Lo
50 --
0
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
Deutsche Bank Mdifferent and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
8
900
800
700
c600 U
600
2
C 400
C3
Housing recessions
15
US Real Private Domestic Residential Investment (seasonally adjusted
annual rate; constant 2005 Q4 dollars; Left axis)
12
U-)
0
LO
01
60c
cN,- 300~
C
0
200100
-----------I-
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Deutsche Banik [
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
Generic new issue spreads for BBB & BBB- home equity
tranches have tightened since summer 2003, but have
widened somewhat in 4th quarter 2006
1000 -
600 -
12/9/2005
500 -
425
400 -
335
300 -
1/275
200 100
U
.c
!I
1997
1998
1999
- -
2000
AA
2001
-
30
2002
2003
....
- * .45e
BBB
2005
2004
-
2006
2007.
BBB-
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
10
.c
299
276
0
150 CL
100
-
159
.........
50 I
0Jan-2006
Mar-2006
--
06-1 EBB
May-2006
-06-1
Sep-2006
Jul-2006
BBB-
06-2 BBB
I.
Nov-2006
Jan-2007
-06-2BBB-
Deutsche Banik
be
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
11
69
70 c 60 50 c40
.0
27
-3Q
m30-
=20 -
10 -
17
13
1999
2000
71
10
[M
0-
18
2002
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
Deutsche Bank
be
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
12
5000
200,000
85%
30%
620
20%
Thickness
Support
AAA
80%
20%
AA
5%
15%
A
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
6%
2%
1%
1%
9%
7%
6%
5%
BB
1%
4%
OC (Equity)
4%
0%
Deutsche Bank [
Tranche
Thickness
Support
AAA
AA
BBB
O/C (Equity)
80%
10%
5%
5%
20%
10%
5%
0%
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
13
Vintage
ARM
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.01%
0.24%
0.89%
2.36%
3.990/
5.26%
5.72%
Fixed Rate
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.02%
0.25%
1.11%
2.89%
4.77%
5.05%
5.56%
Mar-05
0.02%
0.34%
1.05%
2.55%
4.35%
5.45%
6.27%
0.04%
0.34%
1.28%
3.18%
4.89%
5.35%
5.59%
0.00%
0.05%
0.45%
1.21%
2.73%
4.78%
5.59%
6.51%
0.00%
0.07%
0.44%
1.46%
3.42%
5.22%
5.56%
5.68%
0.01%
0.10%
0.56%
1.39%
3.14%
5.17%
5.74%
6.63%
0.00%
0.10%
0.55%
1.71%
3.68%
5.43%
5.64%
6.13%
0.02%
0.17%
0.68%
1.50%
3.17%
5.59%
6.11%
6.72%
0.01%
0.14%
0.65%
1.86%
3.87%
5.78%
6.03%
6.33%*
Initial %of
Pool
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
0.04%
0.27%
0.81%
1.67%
3.34%
5.77%
6.41%
6.78%
0.00%
0.10%
0.39%
0.90%
1.79%
3.50%
5.96%
6.55%
6.88%*
0.02%
0.18%
0.53%
0.98%
1.82%
3.63%
6.13%
6.59%
6.88%*
ARM
76.1%
79.7%
72.7%
62.2%
63.9%
58.9%
63.1%
50.9%
51.9%
0.00%
0.06%
0.39%
0.87%
2.22%
4.11%
6.19%
6.25%*
6.58%*
0.00%
0.10%
0.56%
0.97%
2.34%
4.15%*
6.52%
6.27%
6.63*%
Fixed
23.9%
20.3%
27.3%
37.8%
36.1%
41.1%
36.9%
49.1%
48.1%
0.02%
0.24%
0.75%
2.06%
3.92%
5.91%
6.09%
6.48%*
Re-estimated by Deutsche Bank to adjust for the effect due to optional calls on certain deals
Source Moody's, LoanPerformance, Deutsche Bank
Cumulative loss data published by Moody's in December 2006
shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
D h BkAll numbers
Deutsche Banik
20%--
90%
18%--
80%
16%
70%
14%
60%
12%
50%
10%
40%
8%
30%
6%--
20%
4%--
10%
2%-
0%
0%-I
30%
(avg: 3.75%)
Market share: 13%
25%
0)
220%
15%
(avg: 7.74%)
Market share: 16%
.g10%
7%
5%
0%
0
-*0*
12
18
24
Lowest Quartile
30
42
36
Loan age
2nd Quartile -
48
54
60
-3rd Quartile
66
72
N Highest Quartile
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
0a
80%
c70%
32% at 5% HPA
(U
C:
60% 50% -
5% at 10% HPA
*S 40% -
230% -
1% at 15% HPA
e 20% 10% -
- 0%
-2%
4%
6%
10%
8%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Defaults are defined as loans exiting pools when being more than 90 days in delinquency,
in foreclosure or in REO
Only loans belonging to pools where losses are reported by LoanPerformance are
included but zero severity liquidations are also included
For each individual loan, if the loss amount exceeds the outstanding balance, actual loss
amount will be used (i.e. loss severity ratios above 100% are allowed.)
a Larger MSAs with high loss severity ratios include Youngstown, OH-PA (70%),
Fort Wayne, IN (64%), Pittsburgh (62%), Dayton, OH (61%), Cleveland (59%)
and Indianapolis (55%). All had mediocre home price appreciation in the last 5
years.
E Some larger MSAs with high home price appreciation rates had very low loss
severity ratios. These include Los Angeles (0%), Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
(0%), Sacramento (0%), Fort Lauderdale (0%), Miami (1%), San Francisco
(1%), Las Vegas (1%) and Washington, DC (1%)
a The loss severity ratios in the chart were calculated using first-lien subprime
mortgages Originated between January 2000 and December 2004, with initial
balance not exceeding $300,000, original LTV between 75 and 85 and defaulted
between January 2004 and December 2006. Loss severity ratios for defaults
before 2003 were generally higher.
Deutsche Bank
C1)
00
00
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
As shown above
a Mortgages located in the quartile of MSAs with lowest home price growth have
been three to five times as likely to default as those in the quartile of MSAs with
highest home price growth
a Generally, MSAs with double-digit home price appreciation rates have been
experiencing loss severity ratios less than 20%, many such MSAs had loss
severity ratios less than 10%. The average loss severity ratio for loans
located in areas with growth rate over 12% was 2%. By contrast, the
average loss severity ratio for loans located in areas with growth rate
between 2 and 6%was 35%, a 17-fold increase in loss severity.
E A majority of mortgages by balance originated in the past few years are in areas
with double-digit home price appreciation rates
a If home price appreciation rates slow-down to 4% p.a. for MSAs currently having
double-digit rates, losses (both defaults and severity ratios) may increase
substantially in these MSAs
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
19
00
3.37%
6.91%
6-year
cumul.
defaults
12.62%
3.54%
3.64%
3.71%
3.72%
3.78%
5.58%
16.13%
3.98%
12.89%
10.66%
18.01%
5.10%
21.18%
8.40%
10.27%
3.98%
10.00%
6.95%
2005
Orig % State
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.3%
2.5%
0.1%
0.4%
3.98%
3.98%
4.18%
11.29%
4.33%
21.93%
0.3%
0.1%
0.5%
4.29%
15.18%
8.52%
3.3%
4.34%
4.36%
9.25%
9.28%
7.95%
12.62%
11.70%
16.55%
12.89%
Third Quartile
Second Quartile
Lowest Quartile
0.1%
1.7%
5-year
HPA
Jobless
(CAGR)
rate
5-year
6-year
HPA
Jobles
2005
cuml.
defaults Orig % State s rate (CAGR)
6-year
2005
cumul.
defaults Orig %
Highest Quartile
5-year
HPA
Jobless
(CAGR)
rate
6-year
cumul.
defaults
2005
Orig %
ME
4.52%
10.09%
9.28%
0.4%
RI
5.06% .14.17%
5.66%
0.5%
5.76%
4.55%
25.42%
0.7%
CT
OK
GA
FL
ID
AL
MA
4.58%
4.68%
4.74%
4.79%
4.80%
4.95%
10.26%
4.85%
9.98%
27.24%
1.2%
0.7%
5.88%
5.89%
6.10%
6.11%
6.12%
6.64%
7.38%
16.21%
22.43%
15.28%
4.56%
5.42%
9.44%
22.60%
7.46%
0.8%
2.0%
6.31%
5.63%
28.74%
5.8%
1.8%
0.7%
5.0%
18.7%
0.9%
5.29%
9.24%
19.01%
20.19%
3.5%
5.34%
5.46%
5.07%
8.49%
26.10%
21.18%
1.7%
0.4%
6.46%
6.54%
3.53%
2.0%
1.4%
PA
TN
NM
1.6%
0.5%
4.0%
0.4%
1.9%
1.8%
2.5%
25.99%
25.24%
3.0%
10.3%
0.4%
3.19%
4.41%
14.49%
5.76%
4.34%
5.92%
4.17%
5.13%
25.04%
11.05%
20.21%
5.07%
5.14%
5.23%
5.25%
5.26%
5.28%
28.67%
5.06%
16.28%
9.20%
IN
KS
AZ
AR
CO
MO
9.89%
16.39%
6.58%
5.00%
29.69%
2.3%
0.5%
0.9%
WV
5.47%
6.14%
21.27%
0.1%
6.80%
17.08%
10.07%
0.2%
NY
OH
5.66%
11.55%
12.02%
5.70%
27.87%
7.02%
7.12%
8.88%
10.37%
12.30%
17.98%
0.1%
3.44%
3.9%
3.0%
4.96%
NV
WI
4.96%
5.01%
15.41%
6.34%
7.81%
17.08%
UT
5.01%
5.93%
25.20%
NJ
5.05%
13.09%
11.64%
2.9%
19.71%
9.49%
22.92%
19.30%
20.66%
1.2%
Source: US Department of Labor, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, LoanPerformance and Deutsche Bank
Job data as of the end of 2005, HPA data as of end of second quarter, Default data as of end of August
C/2
Deutsche Bank [
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
20
00
__1
16%
16%
(avg: 5.33%)
14%
12%
10%
(avg: 4.84%)
8%
(avg: 6.36%)
Market share: 48%
6%
4%
Lowest Quartile
2%
(avg: 3.91%)
Market share: 9%
12
18
24
30
36 42
Loan age
48
54
60
66
72
Deutsche Banik
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
22
D 20%
60%
- 50%
C:
Cu
.0 15%-
- 40%
*-
0
-
11.4 0/1
c 10%
- 30%
67.7%
0
C/)
U)
5%-
20%
10%
*t
r--
T**--
-~'
0%
%
8%
12%
16%
20%
FICO: 630
+
+1
CLTV: 85
Full doc %: 60%
.+
Unemployment rate: 5%
1+
Balance: $200,000
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
23
Issue Date
Jun 88
Aug 88
Sep 88
Oct 88
Nov 88
Dec 88
3.15%
Weighted average
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
GSL
1989-01
1989-02
1989-03
1989-04
1989-05
1989-06
1989-07
1989-08
1989-09
1989-10
1989-11
1989-12
Jan 89
Feb 89
Apr 89
May 89
Jun 89
Jul 89
Jul 89
Aug 89
Sep 89
Oct 89
Nov 89
Dec 89
63,536,170
55,133,511
129,304,085
73,352,390
66,110,704
64,015,663
64,012,175
36,764,495
71,197,617
99,948,138
100,031,457
76,193,370
4.56%
4.34%
4.46%
7.60%
6.00%
7.74%
9.48%
4.62%
10.14%
9.29%
10.78%
11.40%
Jan 90
Feb 90
Mar 90
Apr 90
May 90
Jul 90
Jul 90
Sep 90
106,434,749
70,050,087
85,734,389
135,263,315
113,828,957
164,111,691
125,697,495
145,658,584
13.29%
14.15%
15.20%
17.30%
16.52%
16.36%
18.88%
19.34%
Feb 91
Mar 91
184,575,305
136,658,468
7.70%
Weighted average
GSL 1990-01
GSL 1990-02
GSL 1990-03
GSL 1990-04
GSL 1990-05
GSL 1990-06
GSL 1990-07
GSL 1990-08
16.69%
Weighted average
Source: Moody's
Data as of August 2006
GSL 1991-01
GSL 1991-02
Weighted average
Cumulative
1.38%
1.71%
3.83%
4.18%
4.29%
4.79%
18.48%
17.36%
18.01%
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
Deutsche Bank
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 41986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
25
700.600 -2
500 o 400 .0
u 300 -
O 200 -
Fuf
100 0 I
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Note: Thompson Financial Securities Data changed its criteria of home equity ABS in January 2006. The new criteria excludes certain deals with
relatively high FICO scores. It also no longer include overseas mortgages securitized in the US as home equity ABS, as itused to do. As a result,
issuance figures shown here are generally lower than what may have been previously shown.
Deutsche Bank
[.
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
18
16
14
o 12
10
8
CO
4
2
0
1993
Deutsche Bank
I2
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
27
October
2006
1998-vintage
1999-vintage
2000-vintage
40%
88%
100%
50%
12%
10%
Total
100%
100%
100%
0%
50%
85%
78%
38%
15%
22%
13%
Total
100%
100%
100%
(1) Data reflect all deals from major issuers such as Bank of America, Bombardier, DFCS, GreenPoint,
Green Tree (Conseco). IndyMac, Merit and Oakwood. Vanderbilt deals are excluded because the
company has been buying out defaulted loans.
(2) We use Moody's rating when available; when Moody's ratings are not available, we use S&P's
Source: Moody's, S&P, Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank E
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
28
Name
Rank
Market share
($ million)
1
63,142
10.3%
52,098
8.5%
43,871
7.1%
31,823
5.2%
31,208
5.1%
24,730
4.0%
24,322
4.0%
WMC (GEWMC)
19,225
3.1%
Fremont (FHLT)
18,792
3.1%
10
17,161
2.8%
Companies in boldface fonts are regulated banks or affiliated with regulated banks.
Sources: Thomson Financial Data Servoce. Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Banik
o
h an
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
29
Novastar
1.4%
IndyMac
1%
ResMAE Other
1.0%
Am eriquest
12.0%
9-40
Equiflrst
.00
New Century
7.9%
American General
1.5%
Finance America
1.50%
ECC
Countrywide
6.7%
2.1% Aegis
2.2%
BNC
Accredited
2.5%
Wells Fargo
6.4%
3.1%
Option One
6.0%
WMC
3.6%
HSBC
3.8%
AC-RFC
3.8% First Franklin
4.4%
Long Beach
Fremont
5.4%
5.2%
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
30
1.7%
.WA
GA 2.1
2.3%
NV
3.6%
NJ
3.6%
MD
3.6%
IL
4.7%
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
"
11%
12%
13%
3%3%
780+
FICO score range
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
32
*
**
Up to 499
0.12%
83%
500-549
11.67%
70%
550-599
22.89%
51%
600-649
33.69%
31%
650-699
22.44%
14%
700-749
7.61%
5%
750 - 799
2.44%
2%
0.13%
1%
**
Deutsche Banik
All numbers shown inthis presentation are indicative and are based on asample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
33
WA FICO
WA LTV
.WA CLTV
Silent seconds
Interest-only
40-year mortgage
Full Doc
Average loan size
CA %
.
Initial WAC
WA Margin
6-Month LIBOR at
issuance
Fully indexed rate at
issuance
Difference between start
rate and fully indexed
rate at issuance
2006
2006
2004
Q2
__Q1
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
611
82
84
12%
8%.
0%
60%
172,791
33.4%
617
82
85
15%
11%
0%
61%
178,595
34.4%
618
82
86
24%
17%
0%
61%
182,621
34.5%
616
81
86
25%
19%
0%
58%
188,126
34.6%
618
81
86
27%
24%
0%
57%
193,661
34.3%
622
79
86
30%
29%
0%
57%
194,398
31.9%
623
81
88
34%
30%
4%
57%
203,971
32.1%
625
81
86
32%
30%
7%
55%
209,096
30.6%
627
81
86
24%
25%
17%
53%
212,335
31.4%
624
81
86
27%
16%
29%
55%
214,478
27.7%
620
84
89
27%
8%
36%
53%
217,741
26.6%
7.31%
6.08%
1.18%
7.00%
5.82%
1.54%
7.11%
5.87%
1.97%
7.23%
5.90%
2.48%
7.12%
6.01%
2.45%
7.16%
5.88%
3.05%
7.14%
5.82%
3.50%
7.25%
5.84%
3.97%
7.69%
5.83%
4.39%
8.13%
6.04%
4.91%
8.34%
5.87%
5.40%
7.26%
7.36%
7.84%
8.38%
8.46%
8.93%
9.32%
9.81%
10.21%
10.93%
11.26%
-0.05%
0.36%
0.73%
1.15%
1.34%
1.77%
2.18%
2.56%
2.52%
2.80%
2.92%
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
34
360 months
$200,000
7.50%
24 months
60 months
6 months
40%
35%
5.59%
3%
1.5%
6%
4%
20%
At origination
After first reset
After the second reset
Mortgage
coupon
7.50%
10.50%
11.59%
Monthly
Payment
$1,250.00
$1,750.00
$1,932.33
Payment
shock
N/A
$500.00
$182.33
Mortgage
DTI
35.0%
45.3%
49.1%
Total DTI
40.0%
52.0%
56.2%
Annual
Income
$42,857.14
$46,354.29
$47,272.28
After expiration of 10
11.59%
$2,046.70
$114.37
47.1%
57.3%
$52,142.27
$444.34
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
35
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
36
00
00
00
00
E 2 5 % - ..................
a20% -o
0
.......... ..
ID 10 %............
5...........
..
.............
5-
.. . ..
. . ..
.. .. . . . . . . . . . . .
1520
2025
2530
3035
..
. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .
.........
.........
1015
. .. . .
3540
..
~
4550
4045
5055
5560
.........................
....
.....
6065
6570
7075
7580
8085
8590
Deutsche Bank
l DTI calculated pro forma using fully-indexed coupon with LIBOR at origination
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
37
ARM % Type
Ameriquest
84.5% ARM
Fixed
87.7% ARM
Fixed
85.0% ARM
Fixed
66.9% ARM
Fixed
89.0% ARM
Fixed
86.5% ARM
Fixed
80.3% ARM
Fixed
81.3% ARM
Fixed
79.7% ARM
Fixed
82.7% ARM
Fixed
Argent
Countrywide
FirstFranklin
Fremont
Long Beach
New Century
Option One
RASC
WIVMC
CLTV
WA
FICO
WA
Loan
>80
Size ($) FICO <560 CLTV
75.2
91.6
2.3
652
209,680
52.7
5.7 83.5
646
144,031
52.0
28.1 80.4
599
175,276
58.0
7.7 81.4
648
130,561
72.4
19.7 88.0
617
224,679
53.5
15.9 81.0
624
149,125
66.6
17.0 86.7
614
196,964
44.3
78.1
16.8
613
179,582
54.1
16.7 86.2
621
256,136
74.3
90.8
5.3
643
92,852
77.7
10.2 91.5
634
233,398
62.7
5.4 87.0
643
106,838
57.1
15.7 84.5
622
223,667
52.0
10.0 81.8
634
135,655
62.8
17.5 86.4
613
224,695
54.8
7.8 83.2
634
126,584
70.5
87.5
10.8
617
171,893
58.4
8.5 82.7
626
99,759
34.8
82.9
9.3
639
265,670
70.7
2.9 90.2
649
91,806
10
51.3
13.2
13.6
16.1
21.5
5.8
35.4
12.8
16.0
0.0
8.9
0.0
29.3
2.0
20.4
4.2
17.1
2.5
18.7
0.0
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
.5u
0~
Co
Deutsche Bank
?9.BYo
$223,787
6.69%
90%
83%
36.9%
78.0%
44.50%
70.80%
97.2%
41.6%
647
63.2%
20.20% (79.80%)
12.80% (7.40%)
(4.95%)
7.85%
(1.40%)
6.45%
(1.15%)
5.30%
(1.10%)
4.20%
(0.80%)
3.40%
(1.00%)
2.40%
4 /.o
62.7%
$151,066
7.51%
85%
Ia
$205,009
7.21%
87%
81%
81%
18.9%
29.0%
63.5%
69.0%
NA
41.00%
NA
62.60%
93.6%
89.7%
9.1%
39.4%
614
626
10.9%
39.3%
22.90% (77.10%) 20.60% (79.40%)
15.80% (7.10%) 13.75% (6.85%)
(5.45%)
10.20% (5.60%) 8.30%
(1.50%)
6.80%
(1.55%)
8.65%
(1.55%)
5.25%
(1.60%)
7.05%
(1.20%)
(1.10%) 4.05%
5.95%
(1.10%)
2.95%
(1.10%)
4.85%
I
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
0
-
Co
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
40
How do Baa2 and Baa3 tranches in a typical 2005vintage subprime mortgage deal fare?
%for base case
prepayment
For Baa2
70%
80%
90%
100%
12.11%
10.81%
9.82%
9.06%
13.66%
12.36%
11.34%
10.55%
110%
120%
130%
8.46%
7.97%
7.57%
9.91%
9.39%
8.96%
70%
80%
90%
10.06%
8.84%
7.93%
12.11%
10.72%
9.82%
100%
110%
120%
130%
7.22%
6.66%
6.22%
5.86%
9.06%
8.46%
7.97%
7.57%
For Baa3
Note: We used multiples of the prepayment and losses assumptions outlined in the prior pages and the forward LIBOR curves as of
November 16, 2006. We chose Option One 2005-4 as our model transaction which has somewhat typical initial credit enhancement levels
for Baa3 (3.85%), Baa2 (5.35%) and Baal (6.55%). All step-down or step-up triggers in the deal structure are assumed activated for
conservatism. If the triggers are not activated, the break points may be substantially lower.
As shown, faster prepayments usually cause bonds to "break" at lower loss levels, since there is less excess spread.
Conversely, bonds "break" at higher loss levels under slow prepayments. However, under such a scenario, more borrowers will pay fully
indexed rates longer (usually this is a sign that fewer borrowers are able to refinance). Therefore, the cumulative losses out of a pool could
be higher.
Deutsche Bank [
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
41
How do Baa2 and Baa3 tranches in a typical 2005vintage subprime mortgage deal fare (continued)?
Lifetime net cumulative losses
%for base case
will be hit by
the tranche
when
rbasment
prepaymprincipal
writedown
For Baa2
12.11%
70%
10.81%
80%
9.82%
90%
9.06%
100%
110%
120%
130%
13.66%
12.36%
11.34%
10.55%
8.46%
4.24%
3.13%
6.17%
5.17%
5.19%
9.91%
9.39%
9.39%
10.06%
8.84%
7.07%
5.70%
4.52%
3.39%
2.54%
10.67%
9.42%
7.56%
6.42%
5.27%
4.50%
4.43%
12.11%
10.81%
9.82%
9.06%
8.46%
8.98%
9.64%
For Baa3
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Note: We used multiples of the prepayment and losses assumptions outlined in the prior pages and the forward LIBOR curves as of
November 16, 2006. We chose Option One 2005-4 as our model transaction which has somewhat typical initial credit enhancement levels
for Baa3 (3.85%), Baa2 (5.35%) and Baal (6.55%). In this scenario, all step-down or step-up triggers in the deal structure are
allowed to pass or fail based on the prepayment and default assumptions (and a 0% delinquency rate). This results in lower
breakpoints than the initial enhancements under rapid prepayment scenarios because the subordination begins to pay down or
be released before losses have hit the deal at the three year stepdown date.
As shown, faster prepayments usually cause bonds to "break" at lower loss levels, since there is less excess spread.
Conversely, bonds "break" at higher loss levels under slow prepayments. However, under such a scenario, more borrowers will pay fully
indexed rates longer (usually this is a sign that fewer borrowers are able to refinance). Therefore, the cumulative losses out of a pool could
be higher.
AII numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actuanubrwile
Deutsche Bank
How do Baa2 and Baa3 tranches in a typical 2006vintage subprime mortgage deal fare?
% for base case
prepayment
For Baa2
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
For Baa3
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
14.57%
12.05%
10.38%
9.16%
8.19%
7.42%
6.80%
15.37%
12.89%
11.23%
10.01%
9.04%
8.27%
7.64%
13.28%
10.49%
8.92%
7.73%
6.80%
6.06%
5.47%
14.57%
12.05%
10.38%
9.16%
8.19%
7.42%
6.80%
Note: We used multiples of the prepayment and losses assumptions outlined in the prior pages and the forward LIBOR curves as of
November 16, 2006. We chose Citigroup Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-NC1 as our model transaction which has somewhat typical initial credit
enhancement levels for Baa3 (3.70%), Baa2 (4.80%) and Baal (5.50%). All step-down or step-up triggers in the deal structure are
assumed activated for conservatism. If the triggers are not activated, the break points may be substantially lower.
As shown, faster prepayments usually cause bonds to "break" at lower loss levels, since there is less excess spread.
Conversely, bonds "break" at higher loss levels under slow prepayments. However, under such a scenario, more borrowers will pay fully
indexed rates longer (usually this is a sign that fewer borrowers are able to refinance). Therefore, the cumulative losses out of a pool could
be higher.
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
43
How do Baa2 and Baa3 tranches in a typical 2006vintage subprime mortgage deal fare (continued)?
%for base case
prepayment
For Baa2
70%
14.57%
14.81%
15.37%
80%
90%
12.05%
10.38%
12.30%
10.64%
12.89%
11.23%
100%
110%
120%
130%
9.16%
5.70%
4.23%
3.14%
9.42%
6.11%
4.59%
4.67%
10.01%
9.04%
7.70%
7.43%
For Baa3
70%
13.28%
13.68%
14.57%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
10.49%
8.92%
6.31%
4.87%
3.64%
2.67%
10.94%
9.35%
6.89%
5.49%
4.20%
4.51%
12.05%
10.38%
9.16%
7.58%
7.25%
7.74%
Note: We used multiples of the prepayment and losses assumptions outlined in the prior pages and the forward LIBOR curves as of
November 16, 2006. We chose Citigroup Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-NC1 as our model transaction which has somewhat typical initial credit
enhancement levels for Baa3 (3.70%), Baa2 (4.80%) and Baal (5.50%). In this scenario, all step-down or step-up triggers in the deal
structure are allowed to pass or fail based on the prepayment and default assumptions, (and a 0%delinquency rate). This results
in lower breakpoints than the initial enhancements under rapid prepayment scenarios because the subordination begins to pay
down or be released before losses have hit the deal at the three year stepdown date..
As shown, faster prepayments usually cause bonds to "break" at lower loss levels, since there is less excess spread.
Conversely, bonds "break" at higher loss levels under slow prepayments. However, under such a scenario, more borrowers will pay fully
indexed rates longer (usually this is a sign that fewer borrowers are able to refinance). Therefore, the cumulative losses out of a pool could
be higher.
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
Deutsche Bank [
44
0
0-
~20
10
0
1'~
18
12
30
24
42
36
48
54
60
Age (month)
---
2000 -A&-2001
--
2002 --
2003 -*-2004 --
2-2005
2006 -
Base Case
Deutsche Bank [
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
45
18
30
24
36
42
48
2005 --
2006 -
54
60
Age (month)
-
2-2000
2001
2002 -
2003 --X-2004 --
Base Case
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
46
90%-80%70%0
0JW
60%-
E 50%4-
40%-
R 30%20%10%_
0%
0
12
18
24
30
36
48
42
54
60
66
72
78
84
Loan age
All number%
Deutsche Bank
different an .....
---
ARM
.-,
FIX
50
Estimated amount of current outstanding subprime mortgages with future payment shocks
45
3: 15
ci)
o
10
5-
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
a)
C-)
30%
c 25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
515%'
0~*~'
2C 10%
o 10%
0
E5%
0
0-
a-
12
24
18
30
36
C,
5%
Loan age
-
2002 - -
2003 -
-2004
24
18
12
30
36
Loan age
2005 -
2006
- 2003 0
-2004
--
2005 -
2006
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
120
100
100
S80
C
0 60
0
0
L
> 600
<=620
> 620
<=640
> 640
<=660
> 660
<=680
> 680
<=700
> 700
> 740
<=740
<=780
FICO
E 2002 0 2003 0 2004 0 2005 0 2006
> 600
<=620
> 620
<=640
> 640
<=660
> 660
<=680
> 680
<=700
> 700
<=740
> 740
<=780
FICO
0 2003 0 2004 0 2005 0 2006
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
Cr,
Unlike corporate CDS, ABS CDS does not require physical delivery of the underlying bond
from the protection buyer (who has effectively sold the underlying bond short). This helps
to greatly neutralize the risk of a short squeeze.
Nor is cash settlement at the credit event mandatory. This would avoid either party from
been trapped with artificially high or low quotes.
UThe cashflow of the PAUG ABS CDS is dictated by the underlying bonds
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
51
00
00
00
SPV
E
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this. presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
52
00
00
00
Appendix:
rn
00
00
00
t~j
LAi
Deutsche Bank
not included: condos, town houses, co-ops, buildings with more than 1 units,
commercial properties, etc.
Deutsche Banik
De hB All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
54
Deutsche Bank
"
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
55
Conventional loans: fixed rate loans in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs
Jumbo mortgage: a prime loan with a balance higher than the agency limit.
Prime mortgages: mortgages that are either agency mortgages or jumbo mortgages.
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
Low balance
"
"
*
"
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
57
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
58
10 mortgages
- Loan only pays interest in the 10 period (usually 2 to 5 years)
- At the expiration of the 10 period, loan converts to fully amortizing loans
- Payment shock at the expiration of the 10 period may cause defaults to surge
Silent second mortgages
*
- A simultaneous pair of first and second lien loans are made at the origination (usually 80% LTV for the first
lien and 10 to 20% LTV for the second lien)
- Borrower pays little or no down-payment
- Only the first lien mortgage shows up in a securitization and LTV appear to only be 80%. But the borrower's
tendency to default is much high than a true 80% first lien mortgage.
M Option ARMs
- Allow borrower to pay exceedingly low initial minimum payments
- Indexed on moving Treasury average (MTA), LIBOR or COFI-11
- Likely to have negative amortization
- Recast of schedule at 5 ih anniversary may potentially cause significant payment shocks
M Stated-income mortgage loans
Income of the borrowers is not substantiated by the documentation, nor is it verified
Borrowers may inflate income to get loan approved
a 40-year mortgages
Lengthened amortization schedule to make monthly payment smaller
M High debt-to-income ratio loans
DTI for these loans may reach beyond 50%, leaving little for the borrower to pay other expenses
a
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
59
00
00
00
Subprime mortgagors
"
"
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
Deutsche Bank [
Whole-sale - Loans are originated by brokers who have regular business relationships
with the lender. The lender may have an approval process in accepting a broker to its
network and may monitor the performance of a broker's origination. The lender controls
some aspects of the underwriting process but relies.on the broker to do others.
- Correspondence - Loans are originated by non-affiliated brokers according to the lenders
underwriting matrix. The lender is likely to re-underwrite the loan in most aspects.
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
61
Some of the documentations are deficient but usually one of income or employment proofs
is available
th
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Nothing is available
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
62
00
00
00
"
Appraisers are paid on the case load, not value of the property
"
Many lenders also employ in-house appraisers to control the quality of appraisals
Even for purchase loans, an appraisal is needed to mitigate the risk of fraud
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
63
00
00
N Securitization
Securitization are used for many purposes, the most common among them
- Lower cost of funding
- Raise leverage
- Release regulatory capital
- Managing risk
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
64
00
00
00
Default frequency for AAA, depend on the type of loans, may be 4 to 10 times of the
base case
Moody's uses simulations to decide AAA credit enhancement (bonds should have no
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
Deutsche Bank
0
00
00
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
66
Aaa
60.0%
Aa
55.0%
50.0%
Baa
45.0%
Ba
42.5%
40.0%
Deutsche Banik
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
67
Mortgage insurance
-
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown inthis presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
68
Bondholder
Insurer
E OC can be viewed as a special tranche that is the first loss piece for the deal
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
69
00
00
00
Interest payments
Principal payments
Sub bonds' interest payment may or may not have priority versus senior bonds' principal
payments
0
Deutsche Banik
All numbers shown inthis presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
70
00
00
00
j
Principal collection
1. Pay bond
principal
sequentially
2. Loss will result if
principal available
is short of
principal due
IClass
A
0
Class B
cj~
cj~
Class C
0
O/C
Deutsche Bank
"
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
"
Class I-A
(group I)
Class I-B
(group I)
Class 1-A
(group 11)
Class U-B
(group 11)
Deutsche Bank
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
72
"
"
Deutsche Bank
Servicing fee
Trustee fee
Insurance premium (if any)
10 payment (if any)
Designed to prevent bonds from defaulting because interest mismatch (as opposed to
collateral performance)
Capped-out amount is carried forward and may be recouped in the next month
All numbers shown in this presentation are indicative and are based on a sample portfolio. Actual numbers will be
different and will depend on the actual portfolios selected.
73