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June 23, 2010 – Dow fails to hold its 200-day simple moving average
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury moves lower as $40 billion 2-Year note auction is well
received. Gold is consolidating off a new all time high. Crude stayed above my annual pivot at
$77.05. The euro drifts lower after testing quarterly resistance on Monday. The Dow, which failed
at its 50-day simple moving average on Monday closed Tuesday below its 200-day.
US Treasury Yields – The $40 billion 2-Year note auction was strongly bid as risk aversion remains.
The yield was 0.738 with a bid to cover of 3.45 and indirect bid of 41%. The US Treasury auctions $38
billion 5-Year notes today, an hour or so before the FOMC meeting ends. Thursday’ auction is $30
billion 7-Year notes. The daily chart for the 10-Year shows the longer-term trading range between the
200-day simple moving average at 3.544 and 3.061 with annual resistances at the floor at 2.999 and
2.813.
Nymex Crude Oil – The daily chart still shows overbought MOJO with oil above its 50-day and 200-
day simple moving averages and annual pivot at $77.21, $77.00 and $77.05. The 21-day is support at
$74.13.
Daily Dow: The Dow is still overbought on its daily chart after the 50-day simple moving average has
been tested on Monday at 10,585, now 10,570. On Tuesday the Dow closed below the 200-day simple
moving average and my annual pivot at 10345 and 10,379. I did not expect this short-term rebound to
get back to or above the April 26th high at 11,258. It remains “Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500”.