Name: Bridget Laas Period: 4

Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction

ALABAMA

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton (Dem)

Donald Trump (Rep)

Gary Johnson (Lib)

Popular Vote Count

818,412

1,412,345

79,502

Pop. Vote %

35%

60.4%

3.4%

FLORIDA

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton (Dem)

Donald Trump (Rep)

Gary Johnson (Lib)

Popular Vote Count

3,654,418

3,732,451

229,205

Pop. Vote %

47.98%

49%

3.02%

District Presidential Election Predictions

State, District Alabama 7
Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

71.9%

28%

0.01%

Popular Vote Count

168,277

65,532

23

State, District Florida 1

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

20.4%

74.6%

5%

Popular Vote Count

92,582

275,129

25,142

State, District Florida 2

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

50.5%

48.3%

1.2%

Popular Vote Count

157,411

150,553

3,117

State, District Florida 3

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

35.4%

63.6%

1%

Popular Vote Count

84,432

152,407

2,385

State, District Florida 4

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary Johnson

Popular Vote %

30.3%

65.7%

4%

Popular Vote Count

77,806

168,708

10,271

Congressional Election Predictions

State, District Alabama 7
Candidate (Party)

Terri Sewell (D)

N/A

Write in

Popular Vote %

99.5%

.5%

Popular Vote Count

232,662

1,170

State, District Florida 1

Candidate (Party)

Steven Specht (D)

Matt Gaetz (R)

Popular Vote %

25%

74.8%

Popular Vote Count

98,867

293,986

State, District Florida 2

Candidate (Party)

Walter Dartland (D)

Neal Dunn (R)

Rob Lapham (L)

Popular Vote %

50.5%

48.3%

1.2%

Popular Vote Count

157,411

150,553

3,117

State, District Florida 3

Candidate (Party)

Kenneth McGurn (D)

Ted Yoho Incumbent (R)

Tom Wells (I)

Popular Vote %

35.4%

63.6%

1%

Popular Vote Count

84,432

152,407

2,385

State, District Florida 4

Candidate (Party)

David Bruderly (D)

John Rutherford (R)

Gary Koniz (I)

Popular Vote %

30.3%

65.7%

4%

Popular Vote Count

77,806

168,708

10,271

Introduction
When developing my state, predictions I weighed several demographic factors, political issues and
political anomalies. First, I took the population of African Americans and Whites in each district and multiplied
those numbers by the percentage of African Americans and Whites nationwide that are expected to vote Clinton
and then the percentage that is expected to vote Trump. Next, I multiplied all those numbers by the expected
turnout rate of the district. This I calculated by dividing the total turnout rate from 2012 in the district by the total
population of said district. I performed an almost identical process when determining the vote according to
education level only substituting education level for race. I then took the average of the number of people who
would vote for Clinton based on race and the number who would vote for her based on education level. I did the
same with the Trump numbers. These were my preliminary estimates. I then took these numbers and adjusted
them to account for the number of veterans in a district, political issues such as healthcare and immigration and
anomalies in this election. Since the majority of my districts are strongly republican or democrat it is unlikely
their Congressional elections will be much different than my predicted presidential ones.
Race
According to the Washington Posts national poll, 89% of African American voters support Clinton, while
only 4% support Trump. Such disproportionate support from one demographic group in such close race as this
one could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election. Historically, African Americans have been a
reliably democratic group. In 2004, the last presidential election before Obama, 93% of African American Voters
voted for the democratic and only 7% voted republican (Election Polls -- Presidential Vote by Groups). This trend
is unlikely to change, especially considering Trumps racist comments. In Alabama 7, for example, even though,
the district is low income and less educated (both demographics that would, on their own, lean Republican)
because of its racial demographic makeup, a Clinton victory is almost predetermined. Alabama 7 is a majority
African American majority district, and has voted heavily democratic in all previous elections (Ballotpedia). In
say, Florida 4 is 75% white and is a sure Republican district, having voted decisively Republican in the last 5
Congressional elections and last 2 presidential elections (Census Bureau).
It is not just African Americans though, other minorities such as Hispanics significantly favor Clinton and
democrats both for president and for Congress. The Washington Post estimates 65% of Hispanic voters are likely
to support Clinton. Since 2012, the Hispanic population has not only increased significantly, but, the number of

Hispanic eligible voters has increased by 4 million, accounting for 37% of the growth in all eligible voters during
that span (Geiger). Hispanic voters account for 12% of all eligible voters and their support could easily be the
deciding factor in swing states. In Florida 2, for example, which has historically held extremely close elections,
with elections decided by a small a margines as 3% of the vote, the Hispanic vote could have a huge impact on the
outcome (Ballotpedia). Although hispanics only account for about 5.88% of the population in Florida 2, in a
district election decided by barely 3% of the vote, every vote counts (Census Bureau). With more Hispanics
eligible to vote, it could tip the vote just enough in Clintons favor to tip the district in her favor and thus tip the
close swing state of Florida in Clintons favor.
Education
The political divide between the educated and non educated has been growing steadily over the last
decade and is particularly apparent in this upcoming presidential election (A Wider Ideological Gap Between
More and Less Educated Adults).
53% of people who received a high school education or less support Trump, this percentage steadily
decreases as the level of education increases until only 29% of post graduates will likely support Trump
(Washington Post). The inverse is true for democratic voting trends. Although, Clinton polls just as high in the
educated as Trump does with the uneducated, Trump holds a significant advantage in this category. White voters
without a college degree, and particularly white men without a degree make up nearly half of the voting
population (Cohn).
The uneducated often have harder lives and feel forgotten and cast aside by government. They want
something new. Most typical candidates focus mostly on the middle class and more highly educated voters and
often do not address the uneducated because they are less likely to turn up at the polls. Trumps simple, patriotic
stances with little substance and depth hit home with uneducated voters who see Trump as an outsider come to
shake up the two party system, fix the country the way no one else could, and be a leader that will finally address
issues they care about (Cohn).
In districts such as Florida 3, where over 40% of the population 25 or older has any college education, the
likelihood of a Trump victory is significantly increased (Census Bureau).
Veterans

Another, arguably more important factor in determining the distribution of the vote is the number of
veterans. Veterans tend to vote at a much higher rate than non-veterans and tend to vote Republican (Clement). In
2012, for instance, Romney received 20 points more of the veteran vote than Obama (Clement). Although
Trumps military support may not be quite as strong as past Republican candidates because of his comments on
nuclear weapons usage and his claim that Republican candidate and vietnam war veteran John Mccain was not a
war hero... because he was captured, he will still probably pull significant veteran support. Trump frequently
appeals to veterans sense of patriotism and duty to their country. He advocates making America great again,
making it stronger and rebuilding the U.S. military into the strongest on earth, with vast superiority over any
other nation... in the world, (Republican Platform 2016 41).
Veteran turnout is especially important to consider in states with high numbers of veterans where the
veteran vote significantly impacts the outcome. Florida is one of the three US states with over 1 million veterans
along with California and Texas (Census Bureau). In District 1 alone there are 105,671 veterans, the second
highest number in all of Florida (US Department of Veteran Affairs). District 2 through 4 also have high veteran
populations: District 2 with 67,885, District 3 with 83,081, and District 4 with 84,729 (US Department of Veteran
Affairs). These high numbers of veterans, especially in District 1, will shift election predictions significantly
Republican at both the congressional and presidential levels.
Healthcare
Healthcare, especially the Affordable Care Act has been a source of controversy through this presidential
race. Both the Democrats and Republicans agree that there should be a health care system in place, they disagree
on how it should be run. The Democrats work health care as a fundamental right for every American and see the
Affordable Care Act as a step in the right direction (2016 Democratic Party Platform 34). The Republican Party
on the other hand, think that the health care system, like everything else, should be dictated by fair trade not by
government regulations. They want to repeal the Affordable Care Act because they think it is an unnecessary
bureaucracy and denies care or lowers its quality for Americas elderly (Republican Platform 2016 23).
Because of the healthcare issue, poorer districts such as Alabama 7, will most likely lean more towards
the democrats. In Alabama 7, 25% of the populations household income is less than $15,000 (Census Bureau).
People cannot pay for healthcare on that salary. For this reason, many people in Alabama 7 will not vote for the

Republicans one of whose major priorities is to repeal the Affordable care act and leave them without any health
care at all and unable to afford a plan.
Immigration
Another hotly contested issue this election cycle is immigration, specifically illegal immigration,
especially considering current mass hysteria and fear of terrorism. Although Democrats and Republicans agree
that legal immigrants are making vital contributions in every aspect of national life, (Republican Platform 2016
25) and that illegal immigration should not be encouraged, they disagree as to the importance of border control
and the implementation of mass deportation. The Democratic Party does not encourage illegal immigration;
however, they do still support a pathway to citizenship for law abiding illegal immigrants (2016 Democratic Party
Platform) . Inversely, the Republican Party does not under any circumstance support a pathway to citizenship for
illegal immigrants and feel it is Our highest priority, therefore, must be to secure our borders and all ports of
entry and to enforce our immigration laws (Republican Platform 2016 26).
This essential difference in ideology between the two platforms is crucial to voters. Florida has about a
23% hispanic population, mainly immigrants from Cuba concentrated in Miami. This large population of hispanic
immigrants, who generally support Clinton and the democrats because of her immigration policies and Trumps
efforts to close the borders, could push the swing state for Clinton. On a slightly different note, in districts such as
Florida District 3, where almost 80% white, and far away from Miami, the people are generally far removed from
the immediate effects of immigration (Census Bureau). However, isolation and ignorance can create fear of
outsiders which can sometimes proves almost more influential. People who do not see immigrants on a day to day
basis are more susceptible to believing Trumps claims that illegal immigrants are terrible and are stealing jobs
away from americans because they have nothing to compare it to.
Womens vote
According to Washington Post national demographic polls, Clinton is up 8 to 9% in the womens vote
(Latest Results from the Post-ABC Presidential Tracking Poll). The leaked access Hollywood tapes showing
Trump boasting about sexually assaulting and harassing woman coupled with 11 accusations of sexual assault,
Trump tenuous hold on many Republican female voters finally disintegrated. Trump made the situation worse
when he dismissed the accusers as liars and, some worry, further alienating the female voters that the party
desperately needs to survive and refusing to claim responsibility (Johnson and Tumulty). These tapes may

convince even more woman, both conservative and liberal to come out and vote for Clinton, if not to show
support for Clinton but to prevent Trump from winning. Even if more women do not turn out for Clinton, it is
almost certain significantly less will turn out for Trump. Either option is sure to help Clinton and hurt Trumps
chances of getting elected.
Effect on Congressional election
Presidential elections have a significant effect on Congressional elections, for one, they increase turnout
rate significantly (Hayes). More importantly, however, winning presidential candidates increase support for their
party in congressional elections. In fact, For every percentage point that a presidential candidate gains in the twoparty vote, their partys down-ballot candidates gain almost half a point themselves (Hayes). For instance, if in
say, Florida 2, a swing district that I predict will lean slightly more toward Clinton, it is more likely the district
will also elect a Democratic congressman instead of a Republican one.
Conclusion
After compiling the data on all of Alabama and Florida, we predicted that Trump will win Alabama by a
large margin, as expected; however, Florida was more of a surprise. Most major pollsters, such as FiveThirtyEight
and the Washington Post, have Clinton taking Florida, but our numbers suggest Trump will scrape by and snatch
Florida. If Trump wins Florida, and a couple more swing states like it, Trump could come within striking distance
of the presidency.

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