Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 68 (2017) 650658

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A review of renewable investment and power system operational issues in

Bangladesh

Thomas Nikolakakisa, Deb Chattopadhyayb,d, , Morgan Bazilianc,e

a

Columbia University, United States

University of Queensland, Australia
Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
d
University of Melbourne, Australia
e
Cambridge University, England, UK
b
c

A R T I C L E I N F O

A BS T RAC T

Keywords:
Power system operations
Intermittent renewable energy
Dispatch optimization
Investment decisions
Ancillary services

Generation investments, especially large-scale variable renewable energy, requires careful scrutiny of the state
of the power system. Power system planning and operations in a developing country like Bangladesh can often
achieve signicant improvements in economics and security of supply, through modest and prudent
investments. A review of the Bangladesh power sector is presented in this paper that highlights: (a) changes
to dispatch protocols to undertake fuel-constrained dispatch optimization and ancillary services co-optimization
and pricing; (b) issues related to the allocation of natural gas between sectors; and (c) a technology neutral
investment framework. The study uses an hourly dispatch and ancillary services co-optimization model that also
optimizes short to medium term investment decisions. The results demonstrate Bangladesh can: (a) reduce its
production costs by 63% through more ecient dispatch; (b) reduce production costs by 77% by using an
additional natural gas quota of 212 mmcfd (or a 23% increase); and (c) should have invested in power import
and baseload gas/coal rather than expensive solar PV projects (proposed in 2011 at substantially higher cost at
the time). When a carbon price is imposed in the model, the implied break even cost to justify the solar program
is very high in excess of $150/tonne.

1. Introduction
Developing countries face a set of planning and operational
challenges that are often very dierent from those in OECD nations.
Solutions to these challenges may require going back to basics, or
making incremental changes at modest cost rather than sweeping
changes in technology requiring large investments. A careful scrutiny of
power system operations and investment requirements is needed
before adopting large-scale variable renewable generation. If, for
instance, the power system is reliant on a manual dispatch and
frequency control - exposing it to very high frequency uctuations
and out-of-merit dispatch of expensive power stations adding
signicant grid-connected solar and/or wind may expose the system
to additional system instability. It is important that careful planning
precedes the introduction of renewables in the system so that it yields
the maximum benets. A case study for Bangladesh conducted as part
of this analysis highlights some of these issues where the 11 GW power
system is completely reliant on a manual dispatch and frequency
control system. System frequency routinely varies by more than 1 Hz

around the nominal value of 50 Hz. Expensive oil-based generators are

dispatched well ahead of the evening peak period causing overfrequency condition ahead of the peak, and withdrawal of generation
without notice during peak may cause severe under-frequency condition. We nd that a robust dispatch optimization model could save the
country more than a billion dollar annually reducing its cost of
generation to half, if not lower an issue that is one of the core issues
discussed later in this paper. There are also simple, but important,
changes to co-optimize ancillary services that could be paramount to
system security (and arguably would have averted a major grid failure
that occurred on November 1, 2014). The addition of large-scale solar
and wind generation without having a proper dispatch and frequency
control scheme would certainly exacerbate the system security issues.
The power system in Bangladesh is facing signicant peak demand and
energy growth and thus generation investment is essential in the short
term. Financing new generation projects in a country with poor credit
rating is not easy. Yet, the country was contemplating inter alia a $2.76
billion solar program in 2010/11 that has a questionable economic
basis. Even if signicant environmental costs, including a high cost of

Correspondence to: The World Bank, 1818H St NW, Washington DC, United States.
E-mail address: dchattopadhyay6@gmail.com (D. Chattopadhyay).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.016
Received 12 October 2015; Received in revised form 11 July 2016; Accepted 14 October 2016
1364-0321/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 68 (2017) 650658

T. Nikolakakis et al.

existing customers and expand it to new customers, including the 36%

of citizens who do not have power supply, is clearly a priority economic,
political, and social issue. The previous Power System Master Plan
developed by the Ministry of Power in Bangladesh in 2010 [6] and
updated in 2015 [7] identied the need for diversifying generation mix
and identied a range of options including ecient CCGTs, large-scale
deployment of coal and some power import from neighboring countries
[6]. However, it did not foresee the acute shortage of gas that followed
shortly after 2010. Several gas-based generation projects were initiated
at a time the allocation of gas to the power sector was declining over the
last few years. None of the other generation options was realized over
the last ve years, with the exception of a 500 MW HVDC interconnection with India that started operation in October 2013. The government in 2013 announced its intent to develop 24,000 MW of coal in 10
years by 2022, but nancing challenges has stalled the development of
coal projects without a single project reaching nancial closure as of
December 2014. At the same time the Bangladesh government had (in
2012) in principle agreed to a $2.76 billion solar program to develop
500 MW of solar PV capacity mostly in the form of grid-connected solar
projects (including solar parks and roof-top solar) through donor
agency funding [8]. The cost of PV has of course declined sharply
since that time. However, prudence is needed to select the timing of
renewable investment as costs of some of these technologies are likely
to fall. The present study therefore critically analyzes the investment
decisions that were being contemplated during 2013/14 including the
solar projects using costs that prevailed at the time. While addition of
renewable to a coal-dominated system like neighboring India can be
justied on environmental benets [9], Bangladesh generation is
primarily gas-based, and therefore the break-even carbon price needed
to justify solar/wind is relatively high an issue that is also discussed
later in this paper.
Renewable energy for commercial grade power production has been
a very small part of the supply mix in Bangladesh. The Scaling up
Renewable Energy Program (SREP) study prepared by the
Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA)
in October 2015 [10] presented an extensive range of renewable option
that can be taken up by the private and public sector. The Government
of Bangladesh (GoB) has two sets of directives for renewable energy
investment. The rst is the 500 MW Solar Program estimated at $2.76
billion was proposed in 2012 [8]. The objective of the program was to
add 500 MW of solar generation capacity by 2016 through nancing
and implementing solar-powered projects in both the public and
private sectors. GoB has also set renewable energy development targets
for several technologies for each year from 2015 to 2021 (RE
Development Targets). The RE Development Targets call for an
additional 3100 MW of RE capacity to be installed by 2021 [10].
Most of the new capacity will be provided by solar (1676 MW, or 54%)
and wind (1370 MW, or 44%). There are also targets for waste-toenergy (40 MW), biomass (7 MW), biogas (7 MW) and hydro (4 MW).
Solar power in the form of solar parks accounts for the largest share of
1400 MW of the total RE development, followed by wind. The wind
resource quality is however poor and a signicant part of the potential
also happens to be in ood prone areas. The restricted wind potential in
ood-safe location is estimated to be 637 MW 98% of these wind
projects have modest capacity factors ranging between 20% and 25%.
The SREP ndings are broadly in line with the RE estimates developed
by Mondal and Denich [11] in 2010 which also found a very high
(50 GW) potential for solar PV and 4.6 GW of wind potential. Extensive
studies were also conducted by Halder et al. in 2014 and 2015 [12,13]
and more or less conclude the same array of RE opportunities in
Bangladesh. The common theme across all of the recent studies is that
solar is the leading RE resource in the country. Hossain and Badr [14],
however, argued that biomass/biogas which nds a very modest role in
the SREP Investment Plan can potentially play a very signicant role
with economic potential in the range of 183223 TW h, i.e., 45 times
the national current electricity requirement. Hassan et al. [15] also

carbon are accounted for, solar programs still remain expensive

compared to other options that include new gas development, coal
and power import.
This paper reviews the Bangladesh power system context and
presents a structured analysis of some of these operational and
investment issues to highlight how decisions for these can be prioritized. It is intended to demonstrate how power sector policies,
investment decisions in the public and the private sector, including
those driven by donor agencies need to consider incremental changes
and develop sustainable strategies for large scale investments, especially in variable renewable energy.
2. Context: operations and planning issues analyzed
2.1. Operational issues
Bangladesh, home to 156 million people in South Asia, had just
over 11,000 MW capacity (as of December 2015), primarily (around
7075%) running on domestic natural gas extracted from its onshore
elds. The current level of generation is grossly inadequate as reected
in less than 300 kW h of per capita annual electricity consumption,
which is 1/50th of that in the USA, and the third lowest in the world.
Additionally, resources are not managed eciently as is evident from
the fact that there are very expensive (1525 Taka/kW h or 1931 c/
kW h; 1 US$=Taka 80) rental power plants running on heavy fuel oil
(HFO) or diesel that are used even when gas based capacity is available
at less than 2 Taka/kW h (3 c/kW h) [1]. There are several factors
underlying this anomalynot all of which are technical. Nonetheless,
the lack of a proper dispatch optimization tool constitutes one of the
major reasons. The dispatch process is handled ineciently based on a
manual process of a merit order list maintained on a spreadsheet. An
artefact of the dispatch process is that there is no recognition of
ancillary services, especially spinning reserve that the system is in acute
need of during peak hours when the peak load of ~7500 MW is often
very close to available capacity of ~7700 MW. An outage of the
500 MW High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) link from India on
November 1, 2014 had caused a frequency dip from which the system
was unable to recover from, causing nearly a day of blackout for the
entire nation [2]. Lack of much automation and spinning reserve were
the key suspects for this grid failure.
A related second set of issues is around limited availability of
domestic natural gas that is rationed by the government across multiple sectors including power generation, fertilizer production, industry
(including self/captive power generation by industries) and domestic
usage. The power sector (excluding captive generation) received
around 900 mmcfd of gas on average, against a requirement of
1200 mmcfd in 2014. This issue has been hotly debated in the country
as grid supply has been aected and the cost of generation has soared
due to reliance on oil based generation, which is the only other major
source of generation with coal (250 MW) and hydro (250 MW) playing
a very small role in the sector at present. Reallocation of ~300 mmcfd
additional gas from a total current production that varies between
25002800 mmcfd is one of those critical issues that has not been
quantitatively addressed. This is consistent with natural gas demand
forecasting study undertaken by Wadud et al. in 2011 [3] that has also
shown presence of signicant suppressed demand. In fact, their
analysis shows the long term gas requirement for Bangladesh may be
up to 30% higher than the government's own projections [4]. Das et al.
[5] undertook an econometric study using 19802010 data to establish
a strong causality between GDP uctuation on natural gas demand to
conclude that the future projection of GDP growth rate will far outstrip
the available gas reserve.
2.2. Power system planning issues in Bangladesh
Longer term capacity expansion to ensure a reliable supply to
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T. Nikolakakis et al.

provide some support in favor of huge biomass potential in

Bangladesh, but also note that biogas produced choice of technology
such as the Chinese xed dome may be most suitable for Bangladesh.
One of the very few prominent studies in the Bangladeshi context that
touches upon the issue of carbon reduction was undertaken by Hossain
Mondal and Sadrul Islam [16] using the MARKAL model. They have
noted that solar PV can play a very prominent role in reducing carbon
from the power sector for an eective cost of less than $10/ton of CO2.
Habib and Chungpaibulpatana [17] also had undertaken a generation
expansion study to conclude that the long term power requirement of
162 TW h in 2030 would require close to 50 TW h of coal-based
generation and would have a carbon footprint of 96 Mt. If, however,
the coal import option is limited this could increase the potential for
renewable power capacity close to 10 GW including 5 GW of solar. The
resultant emission reduction would be 39 Mt of CO2.
RE investment in Bangladesh is likely to occur mostly in the form of
private investment specically foreign direct investment (FDI).
Khatun and Ahamad [18] presented an interesting analysis using data
for 19722010 over which energy investment as well as inow trend of
FDI were uctuating over the 39 year study period. They found that
there are robust positive and unidirectional short-run causal relationships running from FDI to energy use and from energy use to GDP
growth. Empirical results also conrmed a causal relationship for the
energy use equation in the long run. This study [18] concluded that
Considering the resource and technology gap and requirements for
the development of the energy and power sector, FDI should be
encouraged to this sector that would be imperative to the targeted
GDP growth.

energy supply forecasts, e.g., wind and solar forecasts in day-ahead and
in real-time; (b) exibility of the non-renewable supply as well as
demand response; and (c) pricing mechanism to pay for exibility.
References [2830] for instance discuss signicant enhancements on
both fronts in theoretical modelling as well as their implementation in
real-life markets. These issues are important even in capacity surplus
systems because exibility cannot be assumed to be automatically
available, and in fact may come at a signicant opportunity cost
[30,36]. There are in fact signicant challenges faced in systems where
the penetration increased rapidly as was the case in Germany [37],
South Australia [38], Spain [39], Ireland [40], etc. However, these
issues are critically important in systems where the demand-supply
balance, even without variable renewables, has been tight as is the case
in most developing countries. Any variability in renewable energy can
have a profound impact on supply and hence prices as the case study
for India [27] amply demonstrates. Spinning reserve in such decient
systems can come at a very signicant premium an issue that must be
examined carefully.
The analytical model employed for this study combines fuel
constrained economic dispatch [19] with co-optimization of ancillary
services [1923] together with a consideration of intermittent generation resources [27]. An extension of the model to include capacity
expansion decisions is also implemented. Capturing the interaction
among these components is important to prioritize operation and
investment decisions, especially in a heavily fuel and capacity constrained system like Bangladesh as has been demonstrated through a
case study. The issue of high opportunity cost of spinning reserve in
Bangladesh is also examined in this analysis.

2.3. Overview of power system modelling literature

2.4. Key questions addressed in the analysis

This section provides an overview of the dispatch optimization

including co-optimization of spinning reserve, which is the core
analytical method used to analyze the Bangladesh operational and
investment issues highlighted in the preceding sub-sections. The basic
dispatch optimization model with constraints on fuel availability is well
established dating back to the eighties. Co-optimization of spinning
reserve together with generation has been extensively discussed in the
literature since the late nineties [1925]. Initial works on co-optimization took place in the context of market development in New Zealand
and Australia [19,20] and was implemented in a DC approximation of
Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) model in New Zealand [20]. The
Singapore market followed essentially the same model for which the
full formulation is available on the market operator website [21].
Ehsani et al. [22] discussed the concept of opportunity cost of spinning
reserve and compensation mechanisms that may be used by the system
operator. References [23,24] extended the co-optimization to an AC
power ow framework. Reference [25] in addition considered cooptimization of reactive power reserve taking voltage stability constraints into account. Introduction of variable/intermittent renewable
energy tends to raise the requirement of spinning reserve that has been
recognized in more recent literature e.g., [26]. The importance of this
issue in capacity/energy constrained system has been highlighted in
the context of the Indian power system where variability of wind
caused market prices in recent years to go up dramatically [27]. There
is a small but growing literature on the subject that combine aspects of
ancillary services in power system with signicant variable RE systems
e.g., (Lamadrid and Mount [28]; Nock, Krishnan et al. [29]; Ela,
Milligan et al. [30]; Ji, Huang et al. [31]). Other signicant references
dedicated to ancillary services markets and dispatch include inter alia
Doorman and Nygreen [32]; Ongsakul and Chayakulkheeree [33];
Costa and Costa [34]; Reddy, Abhyankar et al. [35], Bloom et al. [36].
One of the signicant highlights of the international literature [28
36] covering primarily the geographies in North America and Europe is
that these systems are primarily adjusting to the variability of renewables through an improvement in (a) accuracy of variable renewable

As the discussion in sub-sections A and B demonstrate, there are

some fundamental issues that merit attention including:
1. Are the existing generating assets getting dispatched in the best
possible way? Are there signicant deviations between the observed/actual and least-cost/optimal dispatch given a constraint
on available gas? How would additional gas availability reduce
system cost?
In order to investigate this issue, a fuel-constrained dispatch
optimization model is developed to compare the observed and
ecient/least-cost dispatch regimes.
2. What are the implications of imposing a spinning reserve constraint in a system like Bangladesh characterized by tight demandsupply balance? What are the pricing implications for energy and
spinning reserve?
The same dispatch optimization model with co-optimized energy
and spinning reserve is used to assess the ramications of a spinning
reserve target and prices for such services.
3. What should be the priority order for solar vis--vis other investments going forward? What would be the impact of solar on
spinning reserve prices?
Finally, the analysis is extended to include capacity investment
decisions to compare the relative merit of a solar program (including
its impact on spinning reserve).
These issues are analyzed for the year 2014 including a comparison
of actual and optimized dispatch and ramications of dierent investment options that were being contemplated at the time.
3. Methodology
This section describes the (a) basic fuel-constrained dispatch
optimization model; (b) an extended version of the optimization to
consider co-optimization of ancillary services; and (c) a further
extension for the model to analyze investment decisions.
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T. Nikolakakis et al.

Indices.
g

set of generators {ST, CCGT, coal, hydro, solar, ng} with ng

representing new generator additions.
regions {East, West}.
26 time steps per day {hours starting 0017, 4 half-hour
periods 18:00, 18:30, 19:00, 19:30, hours 2023} and for
365 days, i.e., 9490 steps for 2014.

r
t

Input Parameters.
Cost of generation (Taka/MW h).
Cg,
CAPg,
De-rated capacity (MW).
ACng
Annualized capex of new gen. (Taka/MW/year).
Dt
Duration of time period (hour or half-hour).
HRg,
Heat rate (average) in MMBTU/MW h.
Demandr,t Hourly/half-hourly demand for region r (MW).
GasLimit Gas limit in mmcf.
SRMAXg, Max spinning reserve in 6 s (MW).
SolarAvt, Solar resource availability in t (MW).
VoLL
Value of lost load (Taka/MW h).

Fig. 1. Joint energy and spinning reserve constraints.

commitment related constraints.

3.2. Co-optimization of ancillary services
Fig. 1 shows the generalized constraint structure for joint dispatch
of power (P) and spinning reserve. It shows the trade-o between
provision of power and spinning reserve for a given hour and a specic
generating unit [1921].
There are typically several classes of spinning reserve from fast
(e.g., 6 s) to slow (e.g., several minutes). The faster reserves are
naturally more critical and for the same reason in greater demand
that tend to raise their prices sharply at times of tight demand-supply
condition. Since available data lacks many of the required parameters
like SRMax (Eq. (4)) and slope of the joint ramping and capacity limits
that dene the feasible region, this study:

Variables
NCapng New generation capacity (MW).
Pg,t
Dispatch or power output (MW).
SRg,t
Spinning reserve (MW) from subset of generators SR(g).
Fr, ,r,t
Flows across regions (MW).
Sg,t
Gas consumed by ST and CCGTs (mmcf).
Ur,t
Unserved MW in region r.

1. Considered the spinning reserve to just one class namely the most
restrictive 6 s reserve;
2. Assumed a 45 slope for both joint ramping (Eq. (6)) and joint
capacity (Eq. (5))constraints, which is somewhat relaxed condition
at least for some units that may be more ramp constrained;
3. Used enablement point (i.e., level of P where the unit is allowed to
provide any SR) of zero;
4. Used SRMax values from similar units in other countries. SRMax is
restricted to zero for the two coal units and some of the older units
that are unlikely to be able to provide reserve;
5. Assumed a system wide spinning reserve requirement (Eq. (7))
although considering the weak transmission system there may well
be a local spinning reserve requirement in East and West regions of
the country.

3.1. Description of the dispatch model used

The starting point of our analysis is a basic dispatch optimization
model as described below.
Minimize

Z=

g,t

Pg, t . Cg. Dt +

r,t

Ur , t . Dt . VoLL

(1)

Subject to the following two key constraints,

g r Pg,t Fr,r,t + Fr,r,t +Ur,t =Demandr,t

r

g {ST , CCGT}, t

(2)

Pg, t . HRg . Dt GasLimit

The resultant simplied set of constraints are:

(3)

Eq. (1) represents the objective function comprising generation

costs and the cost of unserved energy. Eq. (2) is regional demand for
the half-hour. Eq. (3) is the system-wide gas limit, or the gas allocation
to the power sector. In addition, the model includes minimum
generation limits for coal units, ramping limits for CCGT, coal and
older gas-red steam turbine (ST) units, ow bounds, and hydro
generation prole. Although there should be additional constraints
on committing units, limited information on available data prevented
us from modelling some of the other details. Nevertheless, the actual
dispatch data is obtained to restrict generation from units for periods of
extended unavailability (greater than a day) to largely capture maintenance and forced outages that were observed during 2014, and also
other operational rules that are employed (e.g., not running some of the
units during weekends). These restrictions ensure feasibility of operation, albeit probably introducing some degree of sub-optimality. It
should also be noted that there are at present very few CCGT units in
Bangladesh by and large most units have limited number of

SRg, t SRMAXg

(4)

Pg, t + SR g, t Capg

(5)

SRg, t Pg, t

(6)

SRg, t SRReqt

g SRg

(7)

3.3. Discussion on ancillary service prices

Let us consider a simple example to understand the implications of
constraints (4)(7). Assume there are two generators:

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Gen1 has a capacity of 105 MW at $10/MW h.

Gen2 can provide and 30 MW at $80/MW h.

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T. Nikolakakis et al.

If there is demand of 100 MW and spinning reserve requirement up

to 5 MW, Gen1 would be fully loaded to provide both services for a total
cost of $10*100 or $1000 and yield a system marginal cost of $10/
MW h. For simplicity no direct cost of spinning reserve is assumed and
therefore spinning reserve price is zero in this case.
However, if spinning reserve requirement exceeds 5 MW, there is a
trade-o as Gen2 would be required to provide reserve, which in turn
makes constraint (6) active, forcing it to provide same amount of
generation as reserve. For instance, if spinning reserve requirement is
6 MW,
1. Gen1 is dispatched at 99.5 MW to provide 5.5 MW of reserve;
2. Gen2 is dispatched at 0.5 MW to provide the balance 0.5 MW
reserve;
3. System cost goes up to $1035, i.e., 0.5 MW of Gen2 dispatch costs
the system an extra $40 but also saves $5 from Gen1;
4. System marginal cost for energy is $45/MW h and that for reserve is
$35/MW h. Energy price increase eectively reects the binding
joint capacity constraints - the fact that if demand goes up from 100
to 101 MW, it would enable the additional MW to be split across
Gen1 and Gen2 equally in this case. Reserve price jumps drastically
from zero to $35/MW h for the same reason as system cost increase
discussed above.

Fig. 2. Capacity by cost categories (in Taka/kW h) [1 USD=Taka 80].

other data/assumption is the Power System Master Plan [6,7] for

interconnection capacity, investment costs and generation expansion
options. Solar project costs were obtained from the SREDA reports
[8,10]. The base calendar year for the analysis is selected as 2014
apart from being the most recent year at the time of this study, it also
represented a sharp increase in oil-based generation.
It is important rst of all to understand the composition of capacity
by cost categories (in Taka/kW h). Total de-rated capacity in
Bangladesh in December 2014 was 10,600 MW of which 3920 MW
costs on average Taka 0.79/kW h to run (or ~$10/MW h) on domestic
gas. Gas is subsidized, and if priced properly these might cost 23
times as much, but given their costs, they should still be dispatched
whenever they are available. Another 3258 MW (or 31%) capacity costs
Taka 15/kW h (and just Taka 1.48/kW h on average or $18/MW h)
(Fig. 2). Together this capacity if fully available and have enough gas
should be able to meet demand for vast majority of demand which
peaked at 7418 MW in 2014. There is however 2200 MW or 21% of
capacity, that costs above Taka 10/kW h (Taka 17/kW h on average or
$217/MW h) that are mostly diesel (HSD) or fuel oil (HFO) based
rental power plants. Bulk of our dispatch analysis focused on relative
allocation of generation across these cost categories for actual versus
optimal dispatch.
Other inputs include the following:

The example shows the impact of binding ancillary services

constraint that are symptomatic of tight-demand supply balance in
real-life power systems, especially for developing countries. Adding
variable renewable energy can make a tight demand-supply situation
even more challenging. In Bangladesh, system demand-supply balance
is tight during peak hours every day. Any additional spinning reserve
requirement caused by solar/wind would require expensive diesel/fuel
oil generators to be committed to provide the fast reserve (both
incremental and decremental). Since the cost of diesel/fuel oil is
typically 1015 times that of domestic gas based generation any
addition to ancillary services over and above what would be required to
meet wind/solar variability would be at a premium. The impact as
discussed in the next section is in fact no less dramatic from the
example discussed here.
3.4. Capacity expansion decisions
As a nal step, the new capacity investment decisions are added to
the model so that new investments in both non-renewable and renewable/solar investment decisions can be analyzed in the short to medium
term.

Z=

g, t

Pg, t . Dt . Cg+ NCapng . ACng +

ng

r,t

Ur , t . Dt .VoLL

(8)

Relevant operational constraints for coal, ST, CCGT also apply for
new generating units. Solar generation from PV plants in addition also
need to follow the resource availability, namely,

Psolar , tSolarAvt

(9)

It should be noted that SolarAv for a specic hour may be highly

variable and for capacity planning purposes, one possibility is to
consider 1-in-n-year type criteria, e.g., consider x% lower than average
insolation based on historic variability [27].

4. Implementation of the model for Bangladesh

4.1. Inputs
The major data source for this study is actual hourly load dispatch
and cost of generation that were sourced from the Bangladesh National
Load Despatch Center obtained for the study [1]. This data is available
on the website provided in reference [1]. A second important source for

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Hourly dispatch and availability data for 2014 was obtained from
the NLDC [1].
A 3 node representation is used - East and West Bangladesh and an
HVDC interconnection from India on the West at Bheramara [6,7].
Simplied ancillary services model as discussed before with two coal
units and older ST units disabled from providing any fast reserve.
In 2014, the average gas allocation was around 919 mmcfd which
has been used a constraint, although the analysis also explored
expanded gas availability scenarios to show the benets of additional
gas.
There is no spinning reserve standard for Bangladesh at the
moment. Covering the maximum ow on the HVDC interconnection
which the single biggest source of supply (467 MW) would require
6.3% of spinning reserve at peak. This is relatively high/expensive
and therefore the analysis also considers lower standards starting
with 2.5% or 185 MW of fast spinning reserve.
Solar availability on an hourly basis is available from NASA which is
analyzed through NREL's SAM model [41]. Fig. 3 shows the average
DNI for the month which shows quite poor availability averaging

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T. Nikolakakis et al.

Table 1
Comparison of generation level and cost for 2014.

Fig. 3. 20 year average, minimum and maximum solar resource.

(Source: NASA).

Category of generation

Acual

Optimal

Taka/kW h

GWh

m Taka

GWh

m Taka

< 1 Taka/kW h
15 Taka/kW h
510 Taka/kW h
1020 Taka/kW h
> 20 Taka/kW h
TOTAL
Average generation cost (Taka/
kW h)

19,818
15,154
5323
4598
863
45,757

15,697
25,418
50,882
68,914
21,338
182,249
3.98

32,272
13,485

45,757

25,616
18,515

44,131
0.96

New investment options (500 MW each to compare with solar)

considered include:

As Table 1 shows, bulk of the savings come from shifting generation

from more expensive generation ( > 5 Taka/kW h) to substantially
underutilized gas capacity ( < 1 Taka/kW h). Generation from units
with costs in excess of 5 Taka/kW h in Actual represents less than a
quarter of total generation but accounts for Taka 141 billion or 77% of
the total dispatch costs. Average generation cost in Actual is Tk 3.98
(~5c/kW h) compared to Taka 0.96/kW h (~1.2c/kW h) in Optimal.
Fig. 4 demonstrates the Actual dispatch has 9.7 TW h less of gas
compared to the Optimal that is instead generated using HFO
(6.3 TW h), diesel (1.8 TW h) or is imported (1.4 TW h). Gas in
Bangladesh is heavily subsidized and therefore the cost of generation
reported here represents a signicant degree of underestimate.
Nevertheless, even at its opportunity cost, domestic onshore gas is
signicantly cheaper than diesel/fuel oil and therefore a substantial
part of the gains from an optimized dispatch reects a true economic
benet that can be realized from adopting a proper dispatch optimization software.

5.2. Impact of gas availability

3.3 kW h/sqm/day for six months from MayOct (for Avg series).
The 20 year minimum variability is much worse taking it down to
2.4 kW h/sqm/day for May-Oct. This obviously raises a signicant
question on the value of 500 MW of solar capacity in the country
that for 6 months which include the peak demand (summer) months
would yield in the worst case less than 10% capacity factor. Although
inclusion of DHI which is relevant for solar PV projects would
improve eective energy yield, capacity factors of actual solar PV
installations in West Bengal with similar solar prole are crosschecked. It conrmed very close match of capacity factors also in the
range of 1516% that result for the average irradiance data in
Fig. 3.1

Coal at Taka 168,000/kW or $2100/kW (including coal handling

cost for import) and Taka 3.7/kW h ($46/MW h) allowing for high
cost of imported coal at $80/t.
CCGT at Taka 96,000/kW ($1200/kW) running on imported LNG
($15/MMBTU) costing Taka 8.94/kW h ($111/MW h).
OCGT at Taka 40,000/kW ($500/kW) also running imported LNG
at Taka 12.20/kW h ($152/MW h).
Solar program at dierent costs ranging from $22005520/kW
where the upper end matches the announced Taka 221 billion
($2.76) billion for 500 MW.
Power import at Taka 6.10/kW h, allowing for near doubling of costs
from Taka 3.1/kW h as power generation cost rises in India. It is
however the cheapest of all the options and involves least upfront
investment.

One of the issues that is often cited in the Bangladesh power sector
since 2011 is the reduced availability of gas overall and, in particular,
for power generation. The daily gas production in 2014 was
2800 mmcfd of which only 919 mmcfd was allocated for power
generation, excluding around 300 mmcfd for captive power generation
[42].
The gas consumption corresponding to the Optimal scenario is
1161 mmcfd compared to 919 mmcfd consumed for the Actual dispatch. Given the massive reduction in cost, the gas allocation policy,
especially allocating for gas for inecient usage including small captive
power stations ahead of larger ecient generators, should be revisited.
In order to understand the relative impact of dispatch eciency and
gas supply constraints, two cases are created using two intermediate
Constrained Optimal scenarios restricting the total gas supply to 919
and 1000 mmcfd (Fig. 5). With gas limited to 919 mmcfd, i.e., at the

5. Discussion of results
5.1. Comparison of actual and optimal dispatch
The Actual dispatch for 2014 is compared with the Optimal
dispatch estimated using the model (1)(3), i.e., ignoring any spinning
reserve and investment issues as well as gas constraints. Total system
cost is Tk 182 billion (USD 2.2 billion) in Actual compared to Taka 44
billion (USD 0.55 billion) in the Optimal, showing a staggering
potential to reduce costs by Taka 138 billion (or USD 1.65 billion)
i.e., by 76%.
1
Detailed data for the solar projects is available in a study conducted jointly by CEA
and MNRE. The demonstration plant data for solar in 20102011 is available online:
http://mnre.gov.in/le-manager/UserFiles/Grid_Solar_Demo_Performance.pdf. The
sole solar PV plant in Jamuria, Asansol, West Bengal. It has in fact historically yielded
less than 13%. CEA had undertaken a detailed study of all big cities in India (available on
www.cea.nic.in Kolkata was reported to have an average capacity factor of 15.5%).

Fig. 4. Actual vs optimal dispatch fuel mix.

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Fig. 6. Spinning reserve prices for dierent reserve targets (Taka/kW h).

Fig. 5. Constrained gas supply scenarios.

same level as in the Actual scenario, the Constrained Optimal scenario

costs are Taka 68 billion, i.e., still 63% below the Actual indicating bulk
of the cost dierence can be attributed to poor dispatch practices to
unnecessarily load HFO/diesel based generators ahead of ecient gas
units. The sub-optimality in dispatch even accounting for limited gas
supply cost the country Taka 113 billion or USD 1.4 billion in a single
year. Increasing gas supply marginally to 1000 mmcfd helps to reduce
system costs sharply down to Taka 52 billion. Dispatch eciency
enhancement and gas allocation policies should consider the signicant
cost reduction benets.
5.3. Ancillary services
As noted before, NLDC Bangladesh currently does not follow any
spinning reserve policy. Given the tight demand-supply condition, fast
reserve service, can be at a premium during peak period especially
considering the limited set of plants in an ageing eet of steam turbines
that can provide the service. Table 2 shows how system costs would
escalate rapidly as the spinning reserve requirement crosses 3% of
(hourly) demand. The additional cost is imposed by the requirement to
either constrain-o economic generation (as per Eq. (5)), or constrainon expensive generation (Eq. (6)). The latter in particular can be very
expensive in a system where diesel/fuel oil is an order of magnitude
more expensive than gas.
Average cost of spinning reserve is negligible for a 3% requirement,
but rises to Taka 0.343/kW h (or $4.3/MW h) for 4%, and further to
1.48/kW h (or USD 18.5/MW h) for 5%. In other words, a relatively
meagre 50 MW increment in spinning reserve may cause the spinning
reserve price to jump several fold. This is also observed in more
advanced systems under tight demand-supply condition. However, in a
system like Bangladesh this would be a daily aair and yet holding at
minimum 200 MW if not substantially more spinning reserve should be
considered mandatory.
Fig. 6 shows the hourly prole of average spinning reserve prices.
Reserve prices generally stay low at Taka 0.25/kW h or lower for most
hours but shoot up to Taka 48/kW h (for the 4% and 5% reserve
scenario for the evening peak). Fig. 6 prices clearly show the relativity
of prices at a low level for o-peak hours by capping prices to 0.5 Taka/
kW h. Fig. 7 shows the volatility of spinning reserve prices during the

Fig. 7. Spinning reserve prices for 5% reserve target (Taka/kW h).

evening peak for the 5% reserve scenario. It is evident that the system
needs some form of investment to provide fast reserve. Considering the
increase in cost with higher reserve requirement, almost any form of
new investment including new OCGT or even a pump-storage project
will prove economic. That said, there are cheaper alternatives such as
interruptible load and demand response that should be explored.
A major part of the existing gas generation assets are ageing and as
such the maximum generation potential has been capped to 43 TW h,
allowing for some expansion of gas production from Chevron in 2015/
16. All scenarios assume a 4% spinning reserve requirement.
5.4. Investment analysis
In order to assess investment opportunities in the short to medium
term over the next 3 years, a new scenario is constructed with 20%
higher demand (i.e., 55 TW h pa) and a 4% spinning reserve requirement with new investment options including coal, CCGT, OCGT and
the solar program. Each of these options has been limited to 500 MW
essentially the next set of big investments that might eventuate in the
country.
Table 3 sets out key cost, gas consumption and capacity addition
outcomes for a select set of scenarios. These scenarios in essence posit
(a) two alternative gas availability regimes including the current state
of limited gas availability around ~919 mmcfd as previously estimated
for 2014, and a maximum 1131 mmcfd (or 43 TW h) scenario; and (b)
solar 500 MW program (at $2200/kW in 2014 for Bangladesh) xed
versus an optimized capacity mix.

Table 2
Comparison of generation level and cost for 2014.

System cost (mill Taka)

Generation > 5 Taka/kW h (GW h)
Avg spinning reserve (MW)
Avg cost of spinning reserve (Taka/kW h)
a

No spin

3%a

4%

5%

44360
0
0

44362
1.4
158
0.001

45043
89.2
210
0.343

48052
405
263
1.479

5.4.1. Comparison of scenarios 1 and 2

As the results for scenario (1) demonstrate, an expensive solar
program to supplant for limited gas may prove to be highly expensive at
Taka 150.7 billion pa. Power import option of 500 MW is taken up for
practically all scenarios. Coal is the second best solution that is selected

% of demand for each hour.

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Finally, it is useful to highlight the implication of additional

spinning reserve requirement to counter the intermittency of solar in
a system like Bangladesh (Fig. 8). As the plot shows, the NO SOLAR
prices lower than the SOLAR scenario for vast majority of the time.
The latter scenario includes additional spinning reserve requirement as
explained further below, that results in a spinning reserve price to be
7.5 times higher than the NO SOLAR counterpart.
The increase in spinning reserve price in a capacity-decient system
is a signicant issue. Even if one assumes a reasonable day-ahead
forecast accuracy below 10% for solar the added fast reserve
requirement for a 500 MW installed solar would be at least 30 MW,
and the system will in all probability have less rm capacity that could
provide such service. Under tight demand-supply situation, a dierence
of 50 MW of fast spinning reserve can raise system costs considerably
and may potentially require very high prices for such reserve. Fig. 8
shows spinning reserve prices for scenario (1) [SOLAR] and scenario
2 [NO SOLAR] for 2014 (9490 h/half-hour periods starting January
1, 00:00 h). As shown before reserve prices rise sharply during peak
period for each day and also for majority of the hours during the hot
months (March-October). Reserve prices on average are Taka 0.11/
kW h (USD 1.4/MW h) without solar but jumps to Taka 0.82/kW h
(USD 10.20/MW h) if the solar project is forced into the mix. The
signicance of this point is that in a dilapidated system of old steam
turbines that has little room for any spinning reserve substantial
groundwork is needed to avoid making it extremely expensive.
Addition of variable renewable energy may add considerably to the
requirement for spinning reserve. It is important that necessary policy
and pricing mechanism is in place for requisite investment in system
exibility ahead of substantial integration of variable renewable energy.

Table 3
Comparison of investment scenarios.
Scenario

System cost
(bill. Taka)

Gas (mmcfd)

New capacity
(MW)

(1) Gas constrained and

500 MW solar forced into
the mix
(2) Gas constrained
optimized capacity
(3) Existing gas generation
43 TW h. Solar forced into
the mix
(4) Existing gas generation
43 TW h optimized
capacity

150.7

919

130.7

919

103.2

1131

92.6

1131

Solar 500,
Import 500
OCGT 50
Coal 500
Import 500
Solar 500,
Import 470
OCGT 15
Import 500,
Coal 100

if solar is not included into the mix, that can bring down the annual
cost to Taka 130.7 billion even under a gas constrained scenario
(Scenario 2), i.e., a cost reduction of Taka 20 billion or USD 250
million pa. It will take a CO2 price in excess of USD 80 per tonne for the
solar option to break even with the coal plant. Even if one were to
assume the solar program would cost only half as much with a
reduction in solar panels and eliminating some of the o-grid
components, the break-even CO2 price of $40/tonne would still be
deemed high in the current carbon market regime. The solar scenario
also requires 50 MW of OCGT capacity to be brought in to provide
additional spinning reserve that is needed an issue that has been
explained further later in this section;.
5.4.2. Comparison of scenarios 3 and 4
An increased availability of gas implies far less oil/diesel based
generation and hence much lower overall cost for both scenarios.
Hence, the dierence of system cost between with and without solar
scenarios is also lower because lower capacity factor of solar does not
translate into higher diesel/oil based generation. Higher availability of
gas also lowers the requirement for spinning reserve down to 15 MW.
Nevertheless, the dierence in system cost is still very signicant at
Taka 10.6 billion pa (or USD 135 million pa). The optimized capacity
scenario (4) requires far less coal compared to gas constrained scenario
(2). As such, the implied break even cost of carbon is very high in
excess of $150/tonne. Again this suggests adding a carbon price even
the High carbon price path promulgated in the recent World Bank
Guideline [43] will not support addition of the solar program. This
conclusion holds even if the cost of the program falls to a quarter of the
original estimate in this instance.

6. Concluding remarks
The planning and operational requirements for power systems in
developing countries have not always benetted from structured
analyses, especially when it comes to soft measures. Modern technologies have often been thrust onto these systems at considerable
expense without readying the system and related institutions and
markets. We nd that there are often simple, incremental changes to
operational/planning practices that may yield substantial benets that
may go unnoticed for many years.
Bangladesh power system operation and planning practices highlight these issues. Bangladesh has limited generation capacity and even
more limited domestic natural gas supply. The dispatch protocols are
manual resulting in unnecessarily relying on very expensive fuel oil and
diesel based generators. A comparison of actual and optimal hourly

Fig. 8. Spinning reserve prices Solar vs no solar (Taka/kW h).

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dispatch for 2014 shows that a massive savings of somewhere between

USD 1.401.65 billion was achievable for the year through simple
technical measures to enhance the dispatch optimization procedure
and allocating 23% additional gas to the power sector.
A second operational aspect that must be addressed is improving
the dispatch procedure is to allocate spinning reserve, and having a
process to compensate the generators that provide this service. Such
services are paramount to system security as a major blackout in
November 2014 amply demonstrated. They are also essential for
providing the environment for the introduction of variable renewable
energy. The cost of spinning reserve in a decit system that runs close
to capacity every day of the year is highly sensitive to the requirement.
It is demonstrated that a mere addition of 50 MW of fast reserve can
quadruple prices for reserve.
Thirdly, long term planning is essential for the technical and
nancial health of the system. A comparison of available supply options
shows that enhancing the power import capacity followed by coal are
likely the best investment options in the near term. The $2.76 billion
(or even one at less than half this cost) solar program proposed in
2011/12 to develop 500 MW solar PV capacity in the short-term is a
questionable proposition. The immediate deployment of such a solar
program would also make the task of system operation even more
challenging, as is evident from a near eight-fold increase in spinning
reserve prices when the solar program is added to the system. The
country has already beneted from a delay in the program due to the
rapidly falling cost of solar. Combining it with a large-scale demand
response and potentially storage options might render it cost-eective
in mid-term.
Finally, the three points also highlight an acute need to be judicious
about the selection of site, technology, timing of investment, and the
requirement of exibility imposed on the system. A signicant part of
the Bangladeshi power system comprises old inecient steam turbines
that should make way for more ecient and exible form of gas
generation. It is also clear that grid-connected variable renewable
energy especially solar may be the predominant form of renewable
generation in Bangladesh that may benet from having a more exible
gas-based generation system. The geographical location of grid-connected solar projects need to be selected carefully so that the
transmission system can cope with it, and the spinning reserve
requirements can be met without requiring expensive oil-based generation to provide this service. The changes required in the generation
and transmission system as well as operational practices around
dispatch optimization and frequency control need to be put in place
before large-scale renewable energy can be integrated to the grid. The
steps outlined above need to be carefully crafted into a renewable
energy program for Bangladesh to reap the benets of these technologies.
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