Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
in Agricultural Commodities
in India: MSP, Government
Procurement, and
Agriculture Markets
Shoumitro Chatterjee
Princeton University
Devesh Kapur
University of Pennsylvania
2
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the Governing Body or Management of NCAER.
Devesh Kapur
University of Pennsylvania
Abstract
Spatial variations in real prices of agricultural commodities in India are
large. The paper first describes the evolution of agricultural commodity markets in
India and provides some descriptive statistics. Next it documents the spatial
variation in wholesale prices of the principal cereal crops (rice and wheat) in all
APMC mandis across India and within each state. It further shows persistence in
this variation over time. Using a Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition, the paper
analyzes the relative contributions of different factors in explaining this price
variation. It then examines the effects of two key government interventions in
agriculture markets, the Minimum Support Price (MSP) program and
procurement by government agencies, and the effects of the monopsony power of
mandis on price formation in agriculture output markets. The paper concludes
with some thoughts on future research directions.
JEL Classification: D43, D45, O1, Q11, Q12, Q13, Q18
Keywords: Agriculture, Market Imperfection, Economic Development
*Preliminary draft. Please do not circulate beyond the discussion at NCAER India Policy Forum
2016, for which this paper has been prepared.
Chatterjee: sc20@princeton.edu Kapur: dkapur@sas.upenn.edu .
The authors would like to thank Amarsingh Gawande and Beeban Rai for excellent research
assistance.
1. Introduction
A quarter century after Indias historic shift to a more market oriented economy,
with industrial delicensing, trade liberalization, and (more limited) reforms in factor
markets, one sector continues to be plagued by a curious combination of severely
intrusive government regulations in both factor and product markets, an arbitrary
policy and regulatory environment and low public investments where needed.
Unfortunately, that sector agriculture not only accounts for the livelihoods of the
majority of Indias population, but is also critical to multiple long-term challenges facing
the country from food security to natural resource sustainability, especially soil and
water.
The challenges facing Indian agriculture and its tens of millions of farmers have
been well recognized, whether the media attention and hand wringing on farmer
suicides, the reports of the National Commission on Farmers (led by M. S. Swaminathan)
or official government documents, such as the Economic Survey, 2016. While there has
been much attention to subsidies in factor markets in agriculture (especially water,
electricity and fertilizers) because of their high fiscal costs, with the exception of the
public distribution system, there has been relatively less attention on how government
actions shape product markets in Indian agriculture.
In this paper we focus on how (a) government interventions in support prices
and procurement and (b) regulation and physical location of wholesale agriculture
commodity markets affects price variation across space. We focus on rice and wheat
which together account for about three-fourths of foodgrain output in India (coarse
grains and pulses account for the remainder). We find large variances in prices of
agricultural commodities across the country. Real wholesale prices across wholesale
markets have an average standard deviation of 0.18, much higher than the US and also
many developing countries like Philippines. Moreover, it has been high each year of the
last decade. This is especially puzzling in light of the huge increases in cellphone
penetration and a massive expansion of the rural road network during this period.1
Information frictions can impede trade in a manner distinct from trade costs (Jensen
2007) and greater connectivity should (in principle) reduce spatial price differences as
was the case between regions connected by railroads following railroad construction in
colonial India (Donaldson 2015).
The large variance in prices is important to understand because it implies not
only that consumers pay different prices at different locations for the same product
(unless subsidized by schemes such as the PDS) but producers get different prices
Cellphone penetration in India increased from 78 million in 2005 to more than 900 million in
2014. Between 2005-06 and 2013-14 under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)
the government released nearly Rs, 100,000 crores for rural roads construction. In this period
332,835 km of rural roads connecting around 80,000 rural habitations were constructed.
Source: Ministry of Rural Development Annual Report 2013-14: 49-50.
1
2http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php?title=Agricultural_Produce_Market_Committee_(APMC).
3These
include the Prevention of Food Adulteration Act, 1954, Essential Commodities Act, 1955,
Standards of Weights & Measurement Act, 1976, Prevention of Black Marketing & Maintenance
of Supply of Essential Commodities Act, 1980, Consumer Protection Act, 1986, Bureau of Indian
Standards Act, 1986, Agriculture Produce (Grading & Marketing) Act, 1986.
4 Each year before the harvest (rarely before planting), the GOI announces the minimum
support prices (MSP) for procurement on the basis of the recommendation of the Commission
of Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), which is supposed to take into consideration the cost of
various agricultural inputs and then add a reasonable margin for the farmers to come up with a
MSP. In practice the final figure is also shaped by political and fiscal considerations.
Public procurement of grains occurs mainly by state government agencies (well over 90
percent) with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) a minor player. The PSS for procurement of
oilseeds and pulses, is carried out by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing
Federation of India Ltd. (NAFED), the Small Farmers Agri-business Consortium (SFAC), Central
Warehousing Corporation (CWC) and the National Consumer Cooperative Federation (NCCF).
Recently the FCI has been added to this list. NAFED is the central nodal agency for procurement
of cotton.
6 For certain crops (like cotton and tobacco), systems of private banker's credit operate in the
country-side with the objective of guaranteeing supplies. Hariss-White, 1999:204.
5
Local Private
55.44
41.89
29.58
14.15
Mandi
20.19
28.92
34.77
50.43
Government
11.17
5.54
6.52
3.76
Input Dealers
8.72
19.44
27.46
15.38
Processors
1.62
2.44
0.51
0.65
Local Private
41.40
25.23
16.68
6.07
Mandi
38.71
49.97
45.68
40.45
Government
11.01
5.02
7.36
1.67
Input Dealers
8.1
19.42
29.8
51.77
Processors
0.14
0.24
0.3
0.08
While the intention of the APMC Acts was to ensure that farmers were offered
fair prices in a transparent manner, it has led to the creation of local monopsonies by
restricting free entry in market creation, discouraged investments by the private sector
and generally discouraged free trade and competition. The result has been local
restrictive monoposonies with broad scope, multiple and often non-transparent levies
and charges. Mandi functionaries often do not allow new entrants in the market further
reducing competition. Their combined effects have ensured fragmented and inefficient
markets. (See Chand, 2012) for a very insightful and detailed discussion).
Therefore, despite (or perhaps because of) the intensely regulated markets
which were intended to cut the role of intermediaries, there are multiple intermediaries
between the farmer and the consumer, and as a result consumers pay high prices for
agricultural commodities while farmers get meager returns.
These regulatory problems have been amplified by severe governance challenges
within mandis and according to one estimate four of five of the APMCs have been
superseded.7 In principle the mandi is like a public utility, but when utilities are poorly
governed consumers suffer, as do Indian farmers. The mandis suffer from major
operational weaknesses ranging from poor transparency in auctions to high and
multiple market charges (often unauthorized), from rigged weighing and inefficient
operations to poor treatment meted to farmers by mandi employees at the market
yards. Few mandis have the infrastructural facilities mandated by regulation.
In 2003, recognizing that the role of the APMCs and the State Agriculture
Marketing Boards needed to change from market regulation to market development,
which required removing trade barriers and creating a common market, the central
government formulated a model APMC Act for adoption by the states. While in principle
the model APMC Act provides greater freedom to the farmers to sell their produce
directly to markets set up by private entities, the latter are still required to pay the
market fee to the notified APMCs, even if they provide no services, in addition to the
fees charged for providing trading platform and other services, like loading, unloading,
This para draws from findings of the National Commission on Farmers, Second Report,
Serving Farmers and Saving Farming - Crises to Confidence.
7
3. Data
Our analysis of agriculture trade and commodity price formation in India is
based on a dataset put together specifically for this project form several sources. We
obtained price and quantity data of commodities sold in AMPC mandis from the
Agmarknet project of Government of India (http://agmarknet.dac.gov.in). From our
discussions with officials in the Ministry of Agriculture, we learnt that the Agmarknet
project achieved near full coverage since 2005. Hence, we chose 2005-2014 as the
period of our analysis. For each mandi, Agmarknet records the total quantity sold and
the modal price of each commodity traded in any week. We have aggregated the data up
to the month for our analysis. We also restrict our analysis to the 16 big states Andhra
Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, and West
Bengal. Since, Telangana was formed in June 2014 our analysis covers undivided
Andhra Pradesh.
The Agmarknet portal also provides us with the village, district and state of each
mandi. We used Google Maps API to geocode these villages, hence our mandi locations
are the geographic centroids of the villages where the mandis are located. We have
excluded fruit and vegetable mandis from this analysis unless we found at least one
instance of grain trade in these mandis in the 10-year period.
Geospatial data on district and state boundaries were obtained from the
Geospatial Information Systems library at Princeton University. We obtained gridded
monthly rainfall estimates from Willmott and Matsuura (2012) dataset at the Center for
Climatic Research, University of Delaware. To estimate district level average
precipitation in any given month we average precipitation over all latitude-longitude
coordinates that fall within a district boundary.
Monthly data (2005-2014) on district level government procurement of rice and
wheat was provided to us by the Food Corporation of India9. Data on minimum support
prices (henceforth MSP), area under crops, district and state-level production and yields
http://tinyurl.com/maharashtra-apmc-reform.
At present we have data from the following states Andhra Pradesh, Bihar (2009 onwards),
Chhattisgarh (2008 onwards), Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka (2006 onwards), Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra (2008, 2012-2014), Odisha, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal (2008
2014). We hope to update the analysis with the complete data before the final submission.
8
9
4. Analysis
4.1 Market Infrastructure
We begin with descriptive statistics on the physical presence of wholesale
agriculture markets across India. In figure 1, we plot a simple graph of the stock of total
number of mandis each year starting from 1950.
Figure 1: Fraction of total mandis constructed by year
Source: Agmarknet.
per million
ton cereal
production
(2012)
per million
hectare
NCA (2012)
86
18.20
30.46
Bihar
N/A
3.75
11.11
Chhattisgarh
208
24.10
39.39
Gujarat
90
37.50
25.72
Haryana
67
9.0
39.85
Jharkhand
668
6.0
19.20
Karnataka
198
17.50
19.40
Kerala
10
N/A
56.64
Madhya Pradesh
239
10.25
15.83
Maharashtra
138
32.35
20.47
Odisha
360
13.60
24.85
Punjab
89
8.0
47.95
Rajasthan
212
9.0
9.15
Tamil Nadu
101
36.0
45.13
Uttar Pradesh
229
5.35
16.42
West Bengal
52
5.0
15.56
State
Andhra Pradesh*
r = 10
r = 20
r = 30
0.38
[0.72]
0.43
[0.85]
1.42
[2.83]
0.91
[1.65]
0.61
[0.88]
0.22
[0.64]
0.53
[1.19]
1.07
[1.11]
0.29
[0.87]
0.27
[0.58]
0.40
[0.75]
0.97
[1.20]
0.59
[1.22]
0.67
[1.46]
0.42
[0.72]
0.42
[0.79]
1.61
[1.58]
0.73
[1.07]
3.54
[3.77]
2.63
[2.38]
2.87
[1.67]
0.22
[0.64]
1.17
[1.46]
3.95
[2.25]
0.80
[1.24]
1.24
[1.20]
1.06
[1.22]
4.65
[2.43]
0.86
[1.27]
2.33
[2.33]
1.24
[1.09]
1.19
[1.53]
3.78
[2.72]
1.57
[1.35]
7.14
[5.36]
5.77
[3.96]
6.94
[2.96]
0.37
[0.69]
2.84
[2.31]
8.28
[3.63]
1.92
[1.80]
3.17
[1.79]
2.15
[1.70]
10.78
[4.30]
2.01
[2.05]
5.22
[3.55]
3.00
[1.81]
3.21
[2.82]
Notes: NCA: Net Cropped Area and Cereal Production for 2012-13 from Ministry of Agriculture &
Farmer Welfare. Mandi Data from http://agmarknet.dac.gov.in/. Fruit & Vegetable mandis
excluded. Standard Deviation in brackets. *Andhra Pradesh includes Telangana.
Source: Agmarknet.
Source: Agmarknet.
Source: Agmarknet.
Source: Agmarknet.
The average standard deviation of log (real) prices across mandis within states is
also high. To the extent that high average standard deviation of log (real) prices across
mandis in the country might be due to different varieties of wheat and rice grown in
different agro-ecological zones prevailing in different states, this finding attenuates this
concern. High within-state variation suggests that the variation is not entirely due to
quality. We present the results for 2014 in Table 3. The results for previous years are
similar.
Standard Deviation
0.15
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.18
0.17
0.21
0.16
0.70
0.26
0.14
0.21
0.11
0.07
What is the relative weight of different factors in the variation in prices? To get
at this we performed a Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition. This procedure considers the
various factors which together determine an indicator (such as the overall variation in
prices), and assigns to each factor the average marginal contribution of each factor. The
technique ensures that the decomposition is always exact and that the factors are
treated symmetrically. The results from the Shapley-Shorrocks decomposition found
that 37% of the variation in log (real) prices is due to time-invariant district fixedeffects (which in this case could be soil quality), 20% is due to location-invariant
aggregate time shocks (like global demand), 4% is due to differences in monthly rainfall
across districts, and 39% remain unexplained.
One important time invariant location fixed factor that well explicitly consider in
this paper is the spatial location of mandis. As already discussed there has been
insignificant mandi construction in our period of study. We look at how this might affect
prices later in the paper. The unexplained variation could be due to location and time
varying factors like rural road construction, or procurement of grains by state agencies.
We analyze the latters role as well.
Source: NSS-SAS.
It follows, therefore, that there are large disparities across states in actual
procurement. In Tables 4 and 5, not surprisingly one observes that the states where
awareness of MSP is high are also the states where there is heavy procurement of grains
both in absolute terms and relative to total production. Therefore, awareness is highly
correlated to the intensity of procurement in a state (Figure 8). Notice also that as
paddy is more intensely procured than wheat (as a % of total production), the overall
level of awareness is higher for paddy than for wheat.
A.P.
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Haryana
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
M.P.
Maharashtra
Odisha
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Telangana
U.P.
West Bengal
Production
(in million tonnes)
2013-14
6.97
5.51
6.72
1.64
4.00
2.81
3.57
0.51
2.84
3.12
7.61
11.27
0.31
5.35
5.75
14.64
15.37
2014-15
7.23
6.36
6.32
1.83
4.01
3.36
3.54
0.56
3.63
2.95
8.30
11.11
0.37
5.73
4.44
12.17
14.68
Procurement by FCI
% of all
and State Agencies
India
(in million tonnes) procurement
2013-14
2014-15
3.737
3.596
11.65
0.942
1.614
4.06
4.29
3.423
12.26
0
0
0.00
2.406
2.015
7.03
0
0.006
0.01
0
0.088
0.14
0.359
0.374
1.16
1.045
0.807
2.94
0.161
0.1988
0.57
2.801
3.357
9.79
8.106
7.786
25.26
0
0
0.00
0.684
1.051
2.76
4.353
3.504
12.49
1.127
1.698
4.49
1.359
2.032
5.39
Procurement
as a % of total
production
51.63
21.55
59.16
0.00
55.23
0.10
1.24
68.42
28.62
5.93
38.70
71.03
0.00
15.66
77.06
10.54
11.29
A.P
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Gujarat
Haryana
Jharkhand
Karnataka
M.P
Maharashtra
Odisha
Punjab
Rajasthan
Telangana
Uttar Pradesh
Production
(in lakh tonnes)
2013-14
0.04
47.38
1.34
46.94
118.00
3.70
2.10
129.37
16.02
0.01
176.20
86.63
0
298.91
2014-15
0
39.87
1.35
30.59
103.54
3.30
2.61
171.04
13.08
0.006
150.50
98.24
0.07
224.17
Procurement by FCI
% of All
and State Agencies
India
(in lakh tonnes) Procurement
2013-14 2014-15
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.00
58.73
6.50
23.29
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.00
63.55
70.94
25.33
0
0
0.00
0
0
0.00
108.97
116.41
42.45
12.70
21.59
6.46
0
0
0.00
6.82
6.28
2.47
Procurement as
a percentage of
Total Production
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
55.8
0.00
0.00
44.8
0.00
0.00
69.0
18.5
0.00
2.5
Source: Food Corporation of India and Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare.
Source: Agmarknet.
Note: Upper Panel is for Paddy and Lower Panel is for Wheat.
This raises several interesting questions, which we can only partially address in
this section owing to data limitations. As described earlier, there is disparity in
procurement of grains across districts and over time. These variations allow us to
implement a difference-in-difference identification strategy to compare districts where
there is procurement in certain months to districts where there is no procurement to
identify the impact on the market prices.
Our dependent variable is the relative difference of monthly average prices at the
district level from the prevailing MSP. Its distribution is plotted in figure 11. The key
regressor of interest will be an indicator which will take a value 1 if there was any
procurement in any district in any month and 0 otherwise. We chose this variable as the
regressor as opposed to the actual quantity procured since conditional on access to a
procurement center, the quantity sold to the government is a choice exercised by the
farmer and hence endogenous. Whether or not there is any procurement in a district is
more likely to be outside the farmers choice set when the market prices are falling
below MSP.
0.04
(0.01)***
18508
(2)
(3)
Relative Price
0.04
0.06
(0.01)***
(0.01)***
18508
12815
(4)
0.05
(0.01)***
12815
Notes: Robust standard errors, clustered at the district level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *
p<0.1. Other controls include controls for district-year specific output and district-month specific
rainfall. Prices and procurement are at the district-month level.
Discussion of Results
From table 6, it is clear that in case of paddy, relative to districts with no
procurement, the average market price is at least 4% higher than MSP in districts where
there is procurement. This estimate is robust to different specifications including
unobservable district specific time trends and controls for district specific monthly
rainfall and annual output. Therefore, farmers are worse off in districts where they do
not have access to government procurement. The result also points to the possibility
that in the absence of government procurement, the bargaining power of the farmers
against intermediaries is likely to be attenuated.
We should be careful in that a positive coefficient on procurement implies that
the market price is higher and not necessarily above the MSP. Lets first take the case
when the market price is greater than MSP before and after procurement. This might
seem like a contradiction at first, because if the market price is greater than MSP then
no farmer has the incentive to sell to the government. Hence, procurement should be
zero. However, recall that we are averaging prices over time (for every month) and over
geography (over all mandis in a district). Therefore, if there is procurement in a district
-0.02
(0.004)***
24253
(2)
(3)
Relative Price
-0.02
-0.02
(0.004)***
(0.004)***
24253
17426
(4)
-0.02
(0.004)***
17426
Notes: Robust standard errors, clustered at the district level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *
p<0.1. Other controls include controls for district-year specific output and district-month specific
rainfall. Prices and procurement are at the district-month level.
One possible rationale for this counter-intuitive result could be that only bad
quality wheat is sold in mandis and most good quality wheat is procured directly by the
government. However, this seems unlikely and in any case without supporting data, we
leave this as an open question at this stage. A potential concern could be that all
procurement happens whenever market price is below MSP and almost nothing when
price is above MSP. In this case, we would expect the coefficients to be downward
biased and in line with the results for wheat. However, in that case the results for
paddy would strengthen even further.
The two biggest concerns are that: (a) the act and timing of procurement in
districts may be correlated with time varying unobservables and (b) that there may be
anticipatory responses by the market players based on their expectations. By
controlling for as many district characteristics as possible and putting in flexible fixed
effects we have tried to mitigate the former concern to some extent. In the absence of
high frequency and more disaggregate procurement data however, addressing the latter
does not seem possible.
1 (#mandi) + 2 Rain + +
=5,10,15
(,)
5. Conclusion
Analyzing trade in agricultural markets in India is a complex and daunting task,
especially in absence of data on trade flows. It is important nevertheless for multiple
reasons. The literature has mostly taken a micro approach understanding forces and
mechanics in select mandis, crops and regions. In this paper we have approached the
problem from an all-India perspective. Based on a large, unique dataset we find large
overall variation in prices among mandis. About 37% of this variation is because of time
invariant location specific factors and another 39% is because of time and location
varying factors.
In trying to understand the mechanisms that might explain these results we
focus on key government interventions in agriculture output markets: geographically
selective intervention by the government in procurement of grains; and the market
power that the mandis enjoy because of restrictions in the APMC acts. We find that
selective intervention by the government creates a 2-4% variation in prices depending
on crop. We find that for paddy, government intervention improves terms of trade in
favor of the farmers as one would expect but in the case of wheat it goes the other way
round. This result is puzzling and we will address it in future work. One possible reason
could be that procurement results in lower-grade varieties (or distinct varieties) being
sold in mandis and thus government intervention might depress the market price.
We also find that farmers sell their produce at up to 5% lower prices in
geographically isolated mandis which enjoy market power because they face little
competition, compared to areas where mandis enjoy little market power.
Future work
This paper is an initial attempt in understanding the complexities of agriculture
output markets in India. Future research questions include modeling what might
happen if the APMC restrictions are done away with so that there are no fees for private
players to enter agricultural markets and farmers can freely trade across borders etc.
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