Duterte-style Populism:

The Philippines in the

Geopolitical Economy of Southeast Asia

Bonn Juego
Guest Researcher, Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, University of Copenhagen
Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Jyvskyl, Finland
Presentation to the forum organized by NIAS - the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies,
ADI - Asian Dynamics Initiative, and SEASS - Southeast Asia Signature Series,
University of Copenhagen
22 November 2016
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AGENDA
EMERGENT PHENOMENA IN PHILIPPINE POLITICAL ECONOMY TODAY

1. Duterte-style Populism
2. Limits and Risks of Dutertes Police-Centric Approach to
the War on Drugs
3. Dutertenomics
4. Philippines as ASEAN@50 Chair in 2017
5. Dutertes Foreign Relations Strategies
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Rodrigo Duterte: a Heterodox Politician

Elected: 9 May 2016; President: 30 June 2016

partly TRADITIONAL

veteran local political boss

exposed to Filipino political
wheeling and dealing
from a local and regional political
family in Davao City, Mindanao,
and the Visayas

partly UNORTHODOX

anti-establishment rhetoric
uncouth public behavior
vulgar speech

Dutertes Electoral Victory and Popularity

39 % popular votes; 91 % initial trust rating

Many interrelated factors why Duterte won, but two stand out:
1. BETTER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY OVER WEAKER RIVALS
q issues: most basic (day-to-day concerns) + most fundamental (problems of the socio-economy)
q catch-all politics: anti-corruption; law & order (cuts across classes and the political spectrum )
q zeitgeist: campaign discourse (Change beats Continuity)
anti-elite, anti-Imperial Manila, anti-inefficiencies, anti-corruption, anti-criminality, antidisorder
q stood out as different
q tangible local governance achievements (20+ years as Mayor of Davao City)
q reputation or image as a strong leader with modest lifestyle
q resonated with dominant discourse in Filipino society and culture
q ruled social media, a convenient tool for populism
2. PROTEST VOTE
q against shortcomings, or ineffectiveness, of EDSA Republics
q against hypocrisy of 30-year liberal-democratic regime
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Dutertes Populism as a Discourse

(Contradictions: a source of strength, and also its own weakness)

Discursive inconsistencies
saying different things in
different occasions

A source of both:

Ideological incoherence

Strength: big tent; coalitionbuilding or alliance-forming;

catch-all; popular support; allencompassing legitimacy

Rhetoric-Action
(dis)connection

Weakness: in terms of policymaking and institutionbuilding (which require

consistency, coherence, and
coordination)

Effects: catch-all politics

and divide and rule

Speech: what he says

Action: what he does
Consequences: what actually
happens; what has
happened

Mapping Populism Discourse

Election Period
(populist campaign)

Campaign rhetoric,
slogan, promises
What is promised?

Governance
(populist in power)

Consequences
(intended and
unintended)

What is being said?

What is happening?

What is being done? What has

happened?

Dutertes Left- and Right-wing Populism

LEFT-wing Populism

Self-proclaimed leftist and socialist

but without a socialist program, no
socialist party, does not belong to a
leftist social movement

US imperialism
Landed oligarchy
Catholic Church

Peace with long-running ideological

armed communist rebels and Islamic
separatist groups

Prominence in governance style

and in speech:
Authoritarianism
Military mind
Police action

Anti-established institutions in the

Philippines

RIGHT-wing Populism

Fascination with Marcos era

Martial Law

War or state violence against

criminality and illegal drugs
problems

So far, Duterte has shown more right-wing, than left-wing, populism.

Much better for Duterte and the Philippines to swing to left-wing populism.
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Two Most Divisive, Controversial, Unpopular

Issues and Political Positions of Duterte

Extrajudicial Killings

Heros Burial for dictator Marcos

~5,000 killed (since 1 July 2016)

MARCOS IS NOT A HERO!

Undermine:
q Human rights
q Due process
q Rule of law
Condonation of these killings?
But even if those killings are not
state-sponsored or stateorchestrated, Dutertes
government must do something to
stop it!

Perpetuating culture of impunity

The Marcoses long-term project to rewrite history. (Historical revisionism)

Failure of people power and the

EDSA Republics

Revolutions must be both political and

economic
Southeast Asian elite families: their
economic wealth easily regenerates into
political power

A divided, or co-opted, left movement

EFFECTS:
1. re-activating the opposition
2. dividing groups of supporters

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Duterte - Vice President Tandem:

Different Support Base

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Duterte Supporters from Different Groups

Duterte-Marcos

Most aggressive
Marcos loyalists
Anti-Yellow
Right-wing
authoritarian,
dictatorial
tendencies

Duterte-Cayetano

Duterte-Robredo

Aggressive
support for
Duterte

Moderate
Duterte
supporters

Critical of
Marcos

Anti-Marcos

Critical of Yellow

Yellow sympathy

Duterte-Far Left

Tactical alliance
(if not, co-opted)
Anti-Marcos
Anti-Yellow

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Dutertes Slogan: Change is coming.

#partnersforchange
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE
Objectives and Promises

Criminality and Illegal drugs

Poverty and inequality
Oligarchy

Dominant discourses where

SOCIO-CULTURAL CHANGE must also come
1. CULTURE OF VIOLENCE
q

2. CULTURE OF IMPUNITY
q

The rich, the influential, the politicallyconnected, and the powerful can get away
from their crimes, if not exempted from
punishment

3. CULTURE OF MACHISMO AND SEXISM

q

Corruption, red tape, and

government inefficiencies

Conflicts dealt with through violence, physical

harm, or death

Misogyny; victim-blaming

4. DISREGARD FOR HUMAN RIGHTS

q

The problem is not human rights in principle,

but it is the 'absence' of human rights in
practice.
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Duterte-speak:
Messianic and Dominant Discourses

MESSIANIC COMPLEX and

motherhood statements
Fatherly image: Tatay Digong
Simple solutions to complex problems
Egotism: That he is the only one with
the political will; that he is the only
one who can do it.
Binaries: good citizens and bad
criminals; elites and ordinary people

DOMINANT DISCOURSES (Prevailing

psyche in PH society and culture)

Machismo
Sexism
Violence
Disregard for human rights
Desire for social order
The need for discipline among citizens

LANGUAGE
street language (salitang kalye)
anti-intellectualism; smart-shaming
sound bites and one-liners
witty, humorous comments
jokes
expletives, cuss words, dirty finger
vulgar, cursing, swearing
political incorrectness, uncouth,
undiplomatic
crazy quotes (e.g., rape, Hitler, Viagra)
hyperbole, exaggerations
doublespeak

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Populism and Social Media

Philippines as social media capital of the

world, social networking capital of the
world (in Facebook and Twitter use)

Dutertes populist netizens protest against

mainstream, traditional media: Stop
destabilizing the Philipines.

SOCIAL MEDIA: effectively facilitates

populist appeal and legitimacy
q Memes and YouTube wars: creative
and effective images; short-messages
with high impact emotions
q Trolls: internet provocateurs promoting
hate, fake news and black propaganda
q But the more serious problems are not
trolls, but real people, the loose
cannons behaving badly, boldly
expressing hate and political
incorrectness.

Online war: Dutertards versus Yellowtards

Argumentation tendencies: The political

becomes personal.
q Personalistic and personal
q Groupthink, including incidence of
cyberbullying (#enemiesofchange)
q Conflicts have caused breaking
friendship unfriend, unfollow,
block, restrict
q Logical fallacies: especially, ad
hominem
q Name-calling, or labelling
q Casualties: evidence, facts, truth,
reason
q Confirmation bias: evidence denial;
truth or whats best is based on what
idol says and does
q Anti-intellectualism, smart-shaming
q Condescending, or patronizing

15

Political and Social Psychology

in a Populist Moment and a Populist Movement

GROUPTHINK
We (the good allies) versus They (our evil enemies)
Online: tribalistic; gangsterism
Bandwagon effect and peer pressure to be in, and
to belong to the popular
Lucifer effect

CONFIRMATION / COGNITIVE BIASES

blind and deaf to evidence and facts
selective information in support of preconceived
beliefs and loyalties
personality-based argumentation and other logical
fallacies (especially ad hominem)
Online trolling
Charisma
Personality cult: obsessive admiration to a leader
Fanaticism and idolatry
Bigotry and demagoguery
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Public Debate in a Populist Moment:

from EXIT to VOICE and LOYALTY
A REFLECTION AND ARTICULATION OF REALITY:
the state of peoples sociopolitical
consciousness
quality of education and level of public
discourse
POSITIVE EFFECTS:
increasing awareness and participation of
people in public debate through social media
actively informing themselves about political
and economic issues and concepts
NEGATIVE EFFECTS:
groupthink and confirmation bias
behavior
gutter level exchanges, trolling, bullying, fake
news, character assassinations,
misinformation, lies, regime of mendacity

LIBERAL OPPOSITIONS COMPLAINTS AND

CONTRADICTIONS:

before: exit - political apathy of citizenry

liberal response: dialogue; debate;
popular education; AMO arouse,
mobilize, organize

now: populist political voice and loyalty

boldly articulated through social media
liberal response: ranging from fireagainst-fire to censorship

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Dutertes War on Drugs: Data

as of November 2016

18

Local Popularity of Drug War

Fear of individuals for themselves

and for their families to be
victimized by illegal drug abuse and
drug-related crimes

For some, hatred by those

personally victimized by illegal drug
traffickers and users

Popular frustration and anger

against failure of previous
administrations to seriously address
illegal drugs and criminality

Priority given to public security and

personal safety vis-a-vis crimes

High trust given to Dutertes

political will

19

Populism and Human Rights

Populisms dichotomy: between good and bad citizens

i.e., only criminals should fear an iron-fist law and order regime
(But human rights violations are indiscriminate!)

Human lives and human rights: biggest casualties in the war on drugs

Mal-education about human rights principles.

Human rights have been wrongly associated with the defense of criminals, rather than
the protection of the weak, the vulnerable, and the victims against the capacity of state
and non-state entities for abuse of power.

The problem is not human rights principles, but the absence of human rights!
Anger must be directed at hypocritical liberals, not on the virtues of human rights.

Forgotten in public consciousness:

Human rights institutions (CHR) have been continuously made inutile and worthless
even by three decades of liberal-democratic EDSA republics.
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Dutertes Policing Approach to

the Supply and Demand Problem of Illegal Drugs

Dutertes war on drug:

a supply-side approach
Simple, quick solutions
to complex problems

The law of the instrument:

If all you have is a
hammer; everything
looks like a nail.
If all the government
has is the police, all
socio-economic issues
look like police
problems.
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Police-centric approach to illegal drugs.

Problematic:
Attacking the poor

Secret to success of Dutertes war on drugs:

If socio-economic reform programs take the
leading role in this war, rather than the police!

Why let the police

address socioeconomic causes of
the drug problem:
Poverty and
inequality
Unemployment
Homelessness
School problems
Addiction
Loneliness
Family problems
Migration
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Different approaches to different substances

Solutions must be based on:
Evidence and rationality
Medical science
Local PH needs, capacities, and capabilities

Differentiate between users

and pushers.
Drug users who only
harm themselves are
and should not be
treated as criminals.
Police- and criminal-based
approach to illegal drug
trafficking and peddling.
Rehabilitative and healthbased approach for victimless users.
Different
approaches/penalties to
different substances:
Between synthetic
(shabu) and organic
(marijuana)
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DUTERTENOMICS
Law & Order regime for progress and business stability
War against Drugs and Criminality of the underground economy
Peace process with communist rebels (CPP-NPA-NDF), Islamic separatists (MILF, MNLF)
Philippine Capitalism with Chinese characteristics
on top of existing FDIs and ODAs from Japan, US, South Korea, and the EU
neoliberal policy continuity (i.e., capitalist market-oriented governance)
industrialization
coal-powered?; national champions from the Filipino business oligarchy?
golden age of infrastructure
human capital investment (education gets the highest budget priority)
rhetoric to end labour contractualization practices
AmBisyon 2040
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Good market signals and initial conditions for Dutertenomics

Political capital (solid government institutional
support; clean government perception)
Economic capital (7.1 % GDP and credit ratings
upgrade: path-dependence of growth,
development, FDI)
Social capital (popular mass support and
legitimacy)
+ new Chinese capital for infrastructure investments (active AIIB
membership, OBOR role)
+ continuity of Japanese ODA and investments
+ US BPOs most likely to stay (cost and risk analysis from the point of
view of business)
+ EUs GSP+ grant
+ OFW remittances counter-cyclical effect
+ rising entrepreneurship: MSMEs
+ Opportunities to pursue national industrialization: due to peso
depreciation, imminent protectionism in the US and EU
+ promising sectors like CARS program, shipbuilding, etc.

??? Agriculture modernization ??? (political will for

genuine land reform + need for technological innovation to
manage law of diminishing returns)

The Challenge:
Translate all these asap to
increasing employment,
real wages, and the general
standards of living of the
Filipinos.
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The Philippines as ASEAN@50 Chair, 2017

CONTINUITY
in ASEAN Political Economy

Democratization and human rights:

expected not priority areas
a peaceful coexistence among
authoritarianisms

ASEAN Economic Community (ASEAN

Vision 2025)
towards one neoliberal capitalist
regional economy embedded in ten
different political-cultural regimes
Open-ended future of ASEAN regionalism
largely depends on national
bourgeoisies , or domestic political
economy
state-capital relations (national state
- domestic capitalists foreign
capital): coercion, cooptation, or
consent?

DIFFERENT
in ASEAN Geopolitics

South China Sea maritime

and territorial disputes
more advances for China;
US being kept at bay

a friendlier China???
a more aggressive US???
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ASEAN: Regionalization Without Democratization

peaceful coexistence among
authoritarianisms

semi-authoritarianism

Malaysia, Singapore

history of military rule

Myanmar and Thailand

one-party states

Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam

monarchical state

Brunei

former dictatorships

Indonesia, the Philippines

authoritarian features

the Philippines under Duterte

Authoritarian
Neoliberalism
neoliberal economies
embedded in authoritarian
polities

ASEAN Convergence Club Model

Unity in Economics; Diversity in Politics and Cultures
Region-wide convergence on
one neoliberal capitalist economic system
operating in
ten different political and cultural frameworks

SOUTHEAST ASIAN POLITICAL ECONOMY:

Neoliberalism vs Authoritarian Oligarchies

Neoliberalism of the AEC

Protectionism of the Oligarchies

Dutertes Foreign Relations Strategy:

Some observed elements, so far.

1. Neocolonial analysis prominent in the 1970s

may have influenced Dutertes view on PH underdevelopment and critique against
dependency relations and US imperialism
2. Hedging between geopolitical rivals US and China to advance PH national interests
but many flip-flopping statements (including strong rhetoric against US during meetings
with China and Russia).
3. Elements of Cold War non-aligned strategy of a Third World country
in practice: not zero-sum, not totally anti-US, nor totally anti-EU;
but also sounded to lean to one side (i.e., to China and Russia)
4. Look East
friendlier to Asian neighbors China, Japan, and ASEAN member states
5. Pragmatic economic cooperation (with China, without ceding favorable PCA ruling)
Foreign policy for domestic economic development

While Duterte understands that the US is the most important partner of China, his understanding of RussiaChina relationship is passe,if not wrong. China has always had uncertain, if not problematic, relationship
with Russia.

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Philippine Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics???

(pragmatic economic cooperation)

Contemporary global
political economy:

18-21 October 2016: Dutertes state visit in China

USD 24 billion = 9b soft loans and credit line

+ 15b investments

Old capitalist centers of US,

EU, and Japan on prolonged
economic crises
Dutertes only 6-year term,
and vision for golden age of
infrastructure which only
Chinese capital appears able
and willing to provide at this
time.

Search for new [subimperialist?] allies:

During the APEC 2016, Xi

Jinping invited Duterte to
observe the BRICS

CRITICAL AREAS FOR THE PHILIPPINES WHEN

DEALING WITH CHINESE STATE-CAPITAL:
1. Labor (ensure local content)
2. Environment (renewables and green tech )
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Tensions and Risks of Dutertes critical approach to US,

and new friendship with China and Russia
Americanized socialization of
Filipinos:
a) military and police
b) diplomatic corps
c) social, political, economic,
and cultural institutions
d) scholars and academics
e) the general population
Sino-phobia
Russo-phobia

(Charismatic populist politicians

effect on his followers psyche.)
POLITICS can change a culture,
mentality and worldview.
32

Donald TRUMP in Asias Geopolitical

Equation: Different Game Plans

Uncertainties. But the US Establishment, the US

military-industrial-Wall Street complex, is driven by the
structural imperative to maintain their global
hegemony.

Populists like Trump may win elections easily, but might

find it difficult to implement their campaign rhetoric
while in power.

Duterte-Trump Relations: could be a populist peace a peaceful coexistence among populisms???

Trumps protectionist predisposition: but free trade

may be utilized for US national economic interests.

US-China will be living in interesting times

Xi Jinpings China will continue to regard US as its
most important partner
Trumps campaign strongly critical of Chinas
protectionist economic policies. (Trade war?)

US-Russia / Trump-Putin relations

Hillary Clinton camps dossier against Trump:
Russophobia and war-mongering.
33

Duterte and Great Power Politics

(Third Worlds policy choices in-between great power rivals)

DUTERTES KEY CARDS IN HIS GEOPOLITICAL PROJECTION GAME:

1. Permanent Court of Arbitrations favourable ruling for the Philippines
2. Dutertes bold personality and character
3. Reputation of the Philippines as solid and strategic ally of the US in Asia

34

Dutertes Look East

foreign relations and development policy
POTENTIALS:
South-South relations may be good.
But be careful of giant Southern economies like China.
Attract good investments in line with national
development goals.

35

Example Research Project on Populism: Mapping Dutertes

Foreign Policy Statements about US and China
Election Period
(populist campaign)

Nationalist rhetoric
jet ski
hyperbole to
PH waters and
territories in
the disputed
areas

Governance
(populist in power)

Consequences
(intended and
unintended)

Friendlier to China
also, to Russia

Effect: too early to

tell

Critical of the US, while

continuing PH-US military
exercises

Intended: assume
in good faith

Friend/Enemy statements
about the US

Unintended: ???

Friendly reaching out to US

President-elect Donald Trump
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Final Remarks

The Philippine Populist Moment : a crisis of liberal democracy and identity politics
catch-all politics: contradictions as sources of populisms strength and weakness
divide-and-rule effect: source of populists further strength; absence of solid opposition
from political parties and social movements

Dutertes indifferent personality may be an asset to usher in difficult and much-needed

reforms in the country.

Duterte must make his outstanding socio-economic team rather than the police take the
leading and most important role in the war against drugs and criminality.

Allow the Philippines to make mistakes in their current geopolitical experiments.

PH must take advantage of intense geopolitical rivalry for Asian regional hegemony
between US and China, while keeping its favorable PCA ruling, to further develop its
domestic economy.

Challenge for education in the age of populism: nurturing critical thinking

Challenge for alternative futures:

a sociopolitical movement that combines identity politics + class politics
potentials of left-wing populism (i.e. democratic socialism, social democracy, or else) to
beat right-wing populism
37

Tak.
Salamat.
Thank you.
Bonn Juego
bonn.juego@jyu.fi
22 November 2016, Copenhagen

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