Unwedge v. 4.

Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:

Project Settings
Random Variables
Fisher Distribution
Mean Wedges
Picked Wedges
Scatter Plots
Design Factor of Safety

water pressure. If you have not already done so. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. 4.g.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. Or from the Start menu. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. In a Probabilistic Analysis. joint orientation.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. so make sure the Metric.0 > Unwedge. 7-2 . maximize it now. When the analysis is computed. weg file. field stress properties. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4.Unwedge v. located in the Unwedge 4. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model.

Y Coordinates. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. or defined within the program. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. Y Coordinates and 280. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. 2004). NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. Traditionally a single. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. 4. and the default Number of Samples = 10.000. The final result is an over-design factor. Now. Do not make any changes to these settings. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. 330 for the Maximum X. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. we will use the Add Opening Section option. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. 7-3 . 300 for the Minimimum X. or single letter text command (e. we will use the defaults. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. Select the Random Numbers tab. For this tutorial. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. “a” for arc or “c” for close). The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. With Eurocode 7. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled. Select OK.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file.Unwedge v. to enter each coordinate pair. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog.g. using the Add Opening Section option.

5 303 273 303 273 306 277.. 4.]: a Select 3 points on arc. If it is not. Select OK. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar.5 317 Enter vertex [. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264.5 317 Enter vertex [.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS).Unwedge v. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view..0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table.5 306 277... This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure.esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264.a=arc. Enter number of segments in arc: 12. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab. 7-4 .

because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i. Clicking Add again. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. and lessens the chance of input data errors. Only a single standard deviation is required. Joint Orientations. and Joint Properties tabs. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction). Click OK. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. In general. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. By clicking on Normal. Set the Standard Deviation = 7.e. 4. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. we’ll keep the default values for the General. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations.Unwedge v. Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. Select OK. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. 7-5 . you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. Similarly. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar.

the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. Click the Add button. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i.Unwedge v. Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. We will now define Phi. 7-6 .0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips.e. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. For this example. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. Compute We are now ready to compute. Click OK. 4. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. Select: Analysis > Compute. Max = 15. as shown. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables. Min = Rel. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel.

this is possible as well. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar.000 trials and the 10. The calculation may take a few minutes. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system. using the specified statistical distributions.000 possible wedge arrangements. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. and compute the probabilistic output for 10.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu. From the sidebar on the right. Similarly. their probability of failure is zero. The maximum of these 10. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar. 10. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value. its probability of failure is 1.000 shown in the side bar.000. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. 4. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure.000 random input data samples for each random variable. 7-7 .0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method. and all probabilistic output. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment.Unwedge v. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. Due to the variability in our input data.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. Unwedge will generate 10.

as shown. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. Release the left-click and then press enter. drag a box over just the roof section. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. Now.Unwedge v. as shown in the sidebar. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors. The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. This will display the histogram bars in 3D. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. are based on the mean input values. 4. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. The failed wedges are depicted in red. as shown. 7-8 . Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 .Unwedge v. 4.

Unwedge v. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. or scatter plot. corresponding to any point on a histogram. 7 . This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. cumulative plot. 3. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. This is shown below. In the Sidebar. as expected. Double-click at various points along the histogram. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. For example: 1.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view.10 . 4. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. Notice that different wedges are now displayed. 2. 4. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot.

Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. We can now see from the 3D Wedge View.000 trials. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram. all other applicable views (for example. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment.Unwedge v. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View. and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. Select OK. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view.g. 10. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View. wedge weight. Maximize the Probability View. 7 . any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution). note that due to the variability in our input data.01).11 . In the dialog. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge.). ensure Single Segment is selected. Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. and the 3D Wedge View. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. The segment should turn red. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. and the adjoining segment to the right. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor. • random input variables (i. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. For example: On the sidebar. Double-click on the histogram. etc. 4. Maximize the Probability View. select Data Type = Wedge Depth.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. support pressure.e. Again. as shown below. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous.

The histogram is depicted below. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1). and click OK.Unwedge v. 4. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen.12 . which is 3-dimensional. NOTE: For input random variables. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms. the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram. 7 . which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. However.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable.

Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation. You should have Probability View. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted.Unwedge v. Histogram. to tile all of the open views. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. Click on the Probability View. by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative.13 . Note the Correlation Coefficient. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis. and Scatter Plot open. For example. The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. 4. listed at the bottom of the plot. Before we start.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. 7 . Press enter to generate the plot. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial.

(This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots). Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure. and decrease number of samples from 10. 4. 4. 3. you have additional views open).14 . (i. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random.g. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation. we want to select Compute repeatedly. 7. and different analysis results (e.Unwedge v.g. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. the wedges based on the mean Input Data). Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. which are not affected by re-running the analysis. Select the Random Numbers tab.e. select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. 8. 6. Select Compute repeatedly.000 to 1000. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. Select the Compute option from the toolbar. To do this. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute. 5. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers. 7 . 2. Select OK. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. Now go to the Project Settings dialog.

4.Unwedge v. and Harris. Taylor & Francis. Decoding Eurocode 7. 2006. BS EN 1997-1. 2004. A.. London. 8th Edition.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. 7 . J.15 . Blackwell Publishing. 2008. British Standards Institution. Smith. UK. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics. J. A. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules.

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