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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:

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Project Settings

Random Variables

Fisher Distribution

Mean Wedges

Picked Wedges

Histograms

Scatter Plots

Design Factor of Safety

select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4. 7-2 .0 > Unwedge. joint orientation.Unwedge v. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. water pressure. maximize it now. Or from the Start menu. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model. When the analysis is computed. 4. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. If you have not already done so.g.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. so make sure the Metric. In a Probabilistic Analysis. field stress properties. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. located in the Unwedge 4. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated. weg file. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. stress as MPa option is selected for Units.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge.

The final result is an over-design factor. to enter each coordinate pair. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI.Unwedge v. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer. Do not make any changes to these settings. and the default Number of Samples = 10. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. we will use the Add Opening Section option. For this tutorial. 330 for the Maximum X. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. 7-3 . Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. 4. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers.000. 2004). This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. With Eurocode 7. Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title. using the Add Opening Section option. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. Y Coordinates.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. or single letter text command (e. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). Select OK. Select the Random Numbers tab. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. 300 for the Minimimum X. Y Coordinates and 280. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. Now.g. Traditionally a single. we will use the defaults. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. or defined within the program. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled. “a” for arc or “c” for close). The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze.

5 317 Enter vertex [.Unwedge v...esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264.5 317 Enter vertex [.a=arc. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view.5 306 277.]: a Select 3 points on arc. Select OK.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS). 7-4 . If it is not.5 303 273 303 273 306 277.. Enter number of segments in arc: 12. This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure. 4.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar..

In general. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction). a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. and lessens the chance of input data errors. we’ll keep the default values for the General. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i. Similarly. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. and Joint Properties tabs. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. Clicking Add again.Unwedge v. Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. By clicking on Normal. Set the Standard Deviation = 7. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. Only a single standard deviation is required. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. 4. Select OK. Click OK. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten.e. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. Joint Orientations. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. 7-5 .

Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. 7-6 . We will now define Phi. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables. For this example. Min = Rel. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system. Click OK. the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. Click the Add button.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips. Compute We are now ready to compute. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i. Max = 15.e. Select: Analysis > Compute. 4.Unwedge v. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel. as shown. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions.

using the specified statistical distributions.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method. Due to the variability in our input data. 4.000 shown in the side bar. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View. The calculation may take a few minutes. this is possible as well. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10. From the sidebar on the right. 10. The maximum of these 10. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1.000 trials and the 10. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure.Unwedge v.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. and compute the probabilistic output for 10. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. their probability of failure is zero. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section.000. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. Similarly. 7-7 . However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile.000 possible wedge arrangements. Unwedge will generate 10. and all probabilistic output. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. its probability of failure is 1. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure.000 random input data samples for each random variable.

Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. as shown. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. 4. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. Now. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. as shown. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. as shown in the sidebar. 7-8 . drag a box over just the roof section. are based on the mean input values. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis.Unwedge v. Release the left-click and then press enter. This will display the histogram bars in 3D. The failed wedges are depicted in red. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges.

Unwedge v.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 . 4.

3. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. 2. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. cumulative plot. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. or scatter plot. 4. For example: 1.10 . the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. as expected. Double-click at various points along the histogram. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. 7 . 4. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. Notice that different wedges are now displayed. This is shown below.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. corresponding to any point on a histogram.Unwedge v. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. In the Sidebar.

change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth.). and the 3D Wedge View. 10. The segment should turn red. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. all other applicable views (for example. We can now see from the 3D Wedge View. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view.01). and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. as shown below. Again. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View. Maximize the Probability View. 4.Unwedge v.g. In the dialog.e. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. select Data Type = Wedge Depth. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. 7 . Select OK. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu.11 . Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. For example: On the sidebar. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. support pressure. and the adjoining segment to the right. etc. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution). note that due to the variability in our input data.000 trials. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof. Maximize the Probability View. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. Double-click on the histogram. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. wedge weight. • random input variables (i. ensure Single Segment is selected. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View.

The histogram is depicted below. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms.Unwedge v. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen. NOTE: For input random variables. 4. which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1).12 . which is 3-dimensional.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram. However. and click OK. 7 .

and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar.13 . Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation. You should have Probability View. Click on the Probability View. by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. Before we start. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. Note the Correlation Coefficient. 4.Unwedge v. Press enter to generate the plot. The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. and Scatter Plot open. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. to tile all of the open views. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). Histogram. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. listed at the bottom of the plot. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. 7 . which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. For example.

and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random. 7. (i. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots). This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. and decrease number of samples from 10. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. and different analysis results (e. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. 3. the wedges based on the mean Input Data). 4. 4. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute. which are not affected by re-running the analysis. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis.14 . select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. Select the Compute option from the toolbar.000 to 1000. 7 . we want to select Compute repeatedly. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. Now go to the Project Settings dialog.g. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. Select Compute repeatedly.e. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results.Unwedge v. Select OK. you have additional views open). To do this. 6. Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure. 8. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e.g. Select the Random Numbers tab. 5. 2.

7 .Unwedge v. A. 2008. J. 8th Edition. BS EN 1997-1. J. Blackwell Publishing. Smith. Decoding Eurocode 7. 2006. British Standards Institution. and Harris. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules. London. A. Taylor & Francis. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics.15 .0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond.. 4. UK. 2004.

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