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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:

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Project Settings

Random Variables

Fisher Distribution

Mean Wedges

Picked Wedges

Histograms

Scatter Plots

Design Factor of Safety

weg file. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. water pressure. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. When the analysis is computed. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. Or from the Start menu. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic.0 > Unwedge. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu.g. joint orientation. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated.Unwedge v. field stress properties. located in the Unwedge 4. 7-2 . maximize it now. so make sure the Metric.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. If you have not already done so. 4. In a Probabilistic Analysis. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge.

7-3 . Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog. Y Coordinates and 280. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. The final result is an over-design factor. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. “a” for arc or “c” for close). The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view.Unwedge v. we will use the Add Opening Section option. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. or single letter text command (e. 330 for the Maximum X. Traditionally a single.g. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. With Eurocode 7.000. 300 for the Minimimum X. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). For this tutorial. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze. 4. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. using the Add Opening Section option. we will use the defaults. Select the Random Numbers tab. to enter each coordinate pair. Do not make any changes to these settings. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. 2004). by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer. and the default Number of Samples = 10. Y Coordinates. Now. or defined within the program. Select OK.

Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table. If it is not.esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS). Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view.]: a Select 3 points on arc. Enter number of segments in arc: 12.. 7-4 . Select OK.5 303 273 303 273 306 277.. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view.5 306 277.a=arc.Unwedge v.. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar..5 317 Enter vertex [.5 317 Enter vertex [. 4. This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure.

Set the Standard Deviation = 7. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. and lessens the chance of input data errors. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. and Joint Properties tabs. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction).Unwedge v. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations. By clicking on Normal. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. In general. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. Joint Orientations. 7-5 . 4. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. Clicking Add again. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. we’ll keep the default values for the General. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. Click OK. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. Select OK. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. Similarly.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. Only a single standard deviation is required. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i.e.

7-6 . Click OK. Compute We are now ready to compute. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. Min = Rel. Select: Analysis > Compute. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i. as shown.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips.e. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel.Unwedge v. Max = 15. For this example. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. 4. We will now define Phi. Click the Add button. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu.

Unwedge v.000 trials and the 10. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. their probability of failure is zero. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. From the sidebar on the right. Due to the variability in our input data. its probability of failure is 1. Unwedge will generate 10.000 possible wedge arrangements.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. The maximum of these 10. using the specified statistical distributions. this is possible as well. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1.000. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure. 10. 4. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View. and all probabilistic output. The calculation may take a few minutes. Similarly. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10.000 shown in the side bar. and compute the probabilistic output for 10. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. 7-7 . Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu.000 random input data samples for each random variable.

7-8 . for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. Release the left-click and then press enter. Now. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. drag a box over just the roof section. as shown. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed.Unwedge v. Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments. as shown. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. as shown in the sidebar. are based on the mean input values. This will display the histogram bars in 3D. 4. The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. The failed wedges are depicted in red. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 . 4.Unwedge v.

This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. For example: 1. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. corresponding to any point on a histogram. 7 . Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. cumulative plot. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. This is shown below. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. 2. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. 4. as expected. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu.Unwedge v. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. 4. or scatter plot. Double-click at various points along the histogram. In the Sidebar. Notice that different wedges are now displayed.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. 3.10 . This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views.

The segment should turn red. • random input variables (i. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. wedge weight. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. all other applicable views (for example. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. and the 3D Wedge View. Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. support pressure. etc. 4. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. note that due to the variability in our input data. as shown below. select Data Type = Wedge Depth.Unwedge v. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. Again. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution).000 trials. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. Maximize the Probability View. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. Double-click on the histogram. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. Maximize the Probability View. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment.). 7 . 10. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view. In the dialog. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. ensure Single Segment is selected. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram.01). is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View.g. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth.e. and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. For example: On the sidebar. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor. Select OK. We can now see from the 3D Wedge View. and the adjoining segment to the right.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed.11 .

which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. which is 3-dimensional. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms. 4.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable.12 . Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen. and click OK. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1). 7 .Unwedge v. The histogram is depicted below. However. NOTE: For input random variables.

Click on the Probability View. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. You should have Probability View. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. Press enter to generate the plot. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. Histogram. Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu. to tile all of the open views.13 . Before we start.Unwedge v. Note the Correlation Coefficient. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. and Scatter Plot open. 4. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. For example. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar. 7 . by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. listed at the bottom of the plot. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data.

4. the wedges based on the mean Input Data). select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. 7. we want to select Compute repeatedly. Select Compute repeatedly. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. 5. which are not affected by re-running the analysis. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog.e. you have additional views open). Select the Random Numbers tab. Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. Select OK. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. 7 . Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. 2.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure. (i. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. and decrease number of samples from 10.g.Unwedge v. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute.g. To do this. 4. Select the Compute option from the toolbar. Now go to the Project Settings dialog. and different analysis results (e. 3. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots). 6.000 to 1000.14 . 8. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables.

BS EN 1997-1. Smith. British Standards Institution.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. Blackwell Publishing. 4. 2006. London. 2008. UK. Decoding Eurocode 7.Unwedge v. and Harris. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules. A. J. 7 . 8th Edition. A. J. 2004.. Taylor & Francis.15 .

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