Unwedge v. 4.

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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:







Project Settings
Random Variables
Fisher Distribution
Mean Wedges
Picked Wedges
Histograms
Scatter Plots
Design Factor of Safety

7-2 .0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. field stress properties. water pressure. When the analysis is computed.g. weg file. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. maximize it now. located in the Unwedge 4. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. If you have not already done so. 4. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. joint orientation. In a Probabilistic Analysis.0 > Unwedge.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. so make sure the Metric. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. Or from the Start menu. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4.Unwedge v. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic.

4. For this tutorial. Traditionally a single. Y Coordinates. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. using the Add Opening Section option. we will use the Add Opening Section option. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. 300 for the Minimimum X.Unwedge v. Select OK. “a” for arc or “c” for close). using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer.g. Y Coordinates and 280. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. Do not make any changes to these settings. or single letter text command (e. Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. 330 for the Maximum X. or defined within the program. 2004). The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled. and the default Number of Samples = 10. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title. we will use the defaults. The final result is an over-design factor. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. Select the Random Numbers tab. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze. With Eurocode 7. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. to enter each coordinate pair. 7-3 . Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. Now. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy.000. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog.

]: a Select 3 points on arc.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view. Enter number of segments in arc: 12.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table.5 303 273 303 273 306 277.5 317 Enter vertex [. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab.esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264...a=arc. 7-4 . If it is not.. 4.5 306 277. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar. This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure..5 317 Enter vertex [.Unwedge v. Select OK. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS). select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view.

We will use the Fisher Distribution option.e. we’ll keep the default values for the General. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. Set the Standard Deviation = 7. 7-5 . By clicking on Normal. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. Joint Orientations. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. Click OK. In general. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. Similarly. 4. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction).Unwedge v. Only a single standard deviation is required. Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. Clicking Add again. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method. and Joint Properties tabs. Select OK. and lessens the chance of input data errors. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation.

Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. Select: Analysis > Compute. Click OK. Compute We are now ready to compute. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips. Min = Rel. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel. Max = 15.e. as shown. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables.Unwedge v. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. 7-6 . Click the Add button. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. For this example. We will now define Phi. 4.

where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value.000 shown in the side bar. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. Unwedge will generate 10.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. Due to the variability in our input data. its probability of failure is 1. 10. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. and compute the probabilistic output for 10. and all probabilistic output. Similarly. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1. From the sidebar on the right.Unwedge v.000 random input data samples for each random variable. this is possible as well. The maximum of these 10.000 trials and the 10. The calculation may take a few minutes. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure.000. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View. 7-7 . Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0.000 possible wedge arrangements. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. 4. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure. using the specified statistical distributions. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system. their probability of failure is zero.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method.

The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. 4. as shown in the sidebar. 7-8 . right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. as shown. This will display the histogram bars in 3D. Release the left-click and then press enter. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. The failed wedges are depicted in red. Now. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors. drag a box over just the roof section. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box.Unwedge v. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. are based on the mean input values.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. as shown. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis.

Unwedge v. 4.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 .

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. as expected. or scatter plot. For example: 1. 4.10 . 3. 7 . and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. Double-click at various points along the histogram. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. corresponding to any point on a histogram. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5.Unwedge v. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. In the Sidebar. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. cumulative plot. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. Notice that different wedges are now displayed. 2. This is shown below. 4.

etc. The segment should turn red. 10. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof. Maximize the Probability View. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. as shown below. Again. select Data Type = Wedge Depth. We can now see from the 3D Wedge View.000 trials. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. 7 . Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram.g. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view. and the 3D Wedge View. ensure Single Segment is selected.e. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. For example: On the sidebar. 4. Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. Select OK. In the dialog. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. support pressure. note that due to the variability in our input data.). all other applicable views (for example. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View.11 .0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. Double-click on the histogram. and the adjoining segment to the right. and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution).Unwedge v. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. • random input variables (i. Maximize the Probability View. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor.01). Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed. wedge weight. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e.

because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1). 4. which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. NOTE: For input random variables. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen.Unwedge v. which is 3-dimensional. and click OK. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms. the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram.12 . The histogram is depicted below. 7 . However.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable.

Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. Note the Correlation Coefficient. listed at the bottom of the plot. Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option.Unwedge v. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. You should have Probability View. Before we start. 7 . The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. and Scatter Plot open. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. 4. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis. For example. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. Press enter to generate the plot. by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples.13 . Click on the Probability View. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. Histogram. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. to tile all of the open views. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar.

Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. 5. Select the Random Numbers tab. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers. 4. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute. 8. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots).0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. you have additional views open). Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. and different analysis results (e. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results. 3. and decrease number of samples from 10. (i. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure.e. 4. Select Compute repeatedly. To do this. Now go to the Project Settings dialog. 6.000 to 1000. we want to select Compute repeatedly. the wedges based on the mean Input Data). Select the Compute option from the toolbar. Select OK. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. 2.14 . 7.g. 7 . That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation.g. which are not affected by re-running the analysis.Unwedge v.

J. Decoding Eurocode 7. J. Smith..Unwedge v. British Standards Institution. 8th Edition. A.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. 4. 7 . Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules. London. 2006. UK. Blackwell Publishing. A. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics. and Harris. 2008.15 . 2004. Taylor & Francis. BS EN 1997-1.

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