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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:

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Project Settings

Random Variables

Fisher Distribution

Mean Wedges

Picked Wedges

Histograms

Scatter Plots

Design Factor of Safety

joint orientation. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4. field stress properties. 4.g. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model. When the analysis is computed. weg file.0 > Unwedge. located in the Unwedge 4. 7-2 . If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. water pressure. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. If you have not already done so. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. In a Probabilistic Analysis. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic.Unwedge v. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. so make sure the Metric. Or from the Start menu. maximize it now. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated.

330 for the Maximum X. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. 7-3 . This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. 2004). Select the Random Numbers tab. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. The final result is an over-design factor. Y Coordinates. For this tutorial. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. 4. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. we will use the defaults. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. Do not make any changes to these settings. to enter each coordinate pair. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. With Eurocode 7. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. Y Coordinates and 280. NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. Traditionally a single. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer. we will use the Add Opening Section option. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. using the Add Opening Section option. “a” for arc or “c” for close). and the default Number of Samples = 10. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. Select OK. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. 300 for the Minimimum X. Now. or single letter text command (e. or defined within the program.Unwedge v. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled.000. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze.g.

a=arc. This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264. Enter number of segments in arc: 12.5 306 277. 4.5 303 273 303 273 306 277.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab. If it is not. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS).]: a Select 3 points on arc.. Select OK.esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264.Unwedge v.5 317 Enter vertex [.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar. 7-4 ...5 317 Enter vertex [..

Set the Standard Deviation = 7. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. 4. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. Select OK. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations.e.Unwedge v. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. By clicking on Normal. and Joint Properties tabs. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. and lessens the chance of input data errors. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. 7-5 . you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction). Joint Orientations. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. we’ll keep the default values for the General. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. Only a single standard deviation is required. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. Click OK. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. Clicking Add again. Similarly. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar. In general. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i.

Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. For this example. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. Click the Add button. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i. We will now define Phi. 4. as shown. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system.e. Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable.Unwedge v. Min = Rel. Click OK. Select: Analysis > Compute. 7-6 . Compute We are now ready to compute. Max = 15.

because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0. 10. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View. their probability of failure is zero. Unwedge will generate 10. The maximum of these 10. and compute the probabilistic output for 10. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10. this is possible as well.Unwedge v. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value. 7-7 .000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. Due to the variability in our input data. 4.000 random input data samples for each random variable. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu.000 possible wedge arrangements. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. From the sidebar on the right. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar.000. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. The calculation may take a few minutes. Similarly.000 shown in the side bar.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. its probability of failure is 1. using the specified statistical distributions.000 trials and the 10. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system. and all probabilistic output. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1.

as shown in the sidebar. 7-8 . The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. are based on the mean input values. This will display the histogram bars in 3D.Unwedge v. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. The failed wedges are depicted in red. Release the left-click and then press enter. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. as shown. as shown. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors. drag a box over just the roof section. 4.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. Now. Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 .Unwedge v. 4.

Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. cumulative plot. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. 4. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. 4. 2. In the Sidebar.10 . and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. corresponding to any point on a histogram. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. 7 . For example: 1. Notice that different wedges are now displayed. as expected. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. 3. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. Double-click at various points along the histogram. This is shown below. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. or scatter plot.Unwedge v.

Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. and the 3D Wedge View. Maximize the Probability View. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view. We can now see from the 3D Wedge View. select Data Type = Wedge Depth.000 trials. 7 . etc.). • random input variables (i. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram.g. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. In the dialog. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. Maximize the Probability View. note that due to the variability in our input data. as shown below. all other applicable views (for example. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed.Unwedge v. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. wedge weight. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor. For example: On the sidebar.11 . The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. The segment should turn red. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. support pressure. and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. 4. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed. ensure Single Segment is selected. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution). you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View.e. Select OK. Again. and the adjoining segment to the right. Double-click on the histogram. 10.01).

the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. 4. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1). and click OK. which is 3-dimensional. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen. 7 . However.12 . which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. NOTE: For input random variables. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms. The histogram is depicted below.Unwedge v.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable.

Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar. Histogram. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. 4. Click on the Probability View. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. to tile all of the open views.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. listed at the bottom of the plot. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog.13 . Note the Correlation Coefficient. For example. Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. Before we start. and Scatter Plot open. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). Press enter to generate the plot. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis.Unwedge v. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. 7 . You should have Probability View.

e. 4. 2. 4. you have additional views open). the wedges based on the mean Input Data). Select OK. we want to select Compute repeatedly. which are not affected by re-running the analysis. Now go to the Project Settings dialog. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute.g. and different analysis results (e. (i.000 to 1000. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. 6. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. 3. Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button.14 . and decrease number of samples from 10. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. 7 .g. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation.Unwedge v. Select Compute repeatedly. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure. Select the Compute option from the toolbar. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. 5. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots). 7. 8. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results. To do this. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers. Select the Random Numbers tab. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random.

Smith. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics. 7 . and Harris. BS EN 1997-1. J. Blackwell Publishing. A. 8th Edition.Unwedge v. 2008.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. British Standards Institution. Taylor & Francis. A.. 2004.15 . 2006. 4. London. Decoding Eurocode 7. UK. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules. J.

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