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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:

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Project Settings

Random Variables

Fisher Distribution

Mean Wedges

Picked Wedges

Histograms

Scatter Plots

Design Factor of Safety

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. If you have not already done so. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model. maximize it now. joint orientation.0 > Unwedge. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. In a Probabilistic Analysis. field stress properties. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. located in the Unwedge 4. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. so make sure the Metric. 4.Unwedge v.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. When the analysis is computed. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. weg file.g. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. water pressure. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4. Or from the Start menu. 7-2 . Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder.

Do not make any changes to these settings. Now. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. For this tutorial. to enter each coordinate pair. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. Y Coordinates and 280. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. With Eurocode 7. Traditionally a single. Select OK. we will use the defaults. NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. Select the Random Numbers tab. using the Add Opening Section option. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. The final result is an over-design factor. or defined within the program. “a” for arc or “c” for close). lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem.000. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default.Unwedge v. Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. we will use the Add Opening Section option. 330 for the Maximum X. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file. 4. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. 2004). by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. 7-3 . Y Coordinates. or single letter text command (e. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze. and the default Number of Samples = 10.g. 300 for the Minimimum X.

The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS).5 303 273 303 273 306 277. Select OK. 7-4 . This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure. If it is not.Unwedge v.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table.esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view.]: a Select 3 points on arc.5 317 Enter vertex [..5 317 Enter vertex [.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view.5 306 277.. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar. Enter number of segments in arc: 12.. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264.a=arc.. 4. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab.

at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. 7-5 . Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. Similarly.e. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. Click OK. and lessens the chance of input data errors. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. 4.Unwedge v. Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. the property can be changed to Dip Direction. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar. we’ll keep the default values for the General.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. Clicking Add again. Only a single standard deviation is required. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction). and Joint Properties tabs. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. In general. Set the Standard Deviation = 7. Select OK. Joint Orientations. By clicking on Normal. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method.

We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables. We will now define Phi. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. Select: Analysis > Compute. Click the Add button. For this example. Click OK. Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. Max = 15.Unwedge v. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. Compute We are now ready to compute.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog.e. the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. 4. 7-6 . as shown. Min = Rel. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i.

The maximum of these 10.000 random input data samples for each random variable. and all probabilistic output. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure. this is possible as well. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1. Similarly.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method.000 possible wedge arrangements. From the sidebar on the right. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. its probability of failure is 1.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile. using the specified statistical distributions. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu.Unwedge v.000 trials and the 10. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar. 4. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. 7-7 . Due to the variability in our input data. 10. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View.000 shown in the side bar. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10. The calculation may take a few minutes. their probability of failure is zero. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system. Unwedge will generate 10.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. and compute the probabilistic output for 10.000.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. as shown in the sidebar. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. are based on the mean input values. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. The failed wedges are depicted in red. drag a box over just the roof section. Now. 4. Release the left-click and then press enter. Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments. This will display the histogram bars in 3D. as shown. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. as shown. 7-8 . Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors.Unwedge v. The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 . 4.Unwedge v.

cumulative plot. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted. Notice that different wedges are now displayed.Unwedge v. corresponding to any point on a histogram. This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. as expected. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. 3. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. 4. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. In the Sidebar. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. or scatter plot. 7 . Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. For example: 1. Double-click at various points along the histogram. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. 2. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. 4. This is shown below.10 .

We can now see from the 3D Wedge View. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. In the dialog. The segment should turn red. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution). 4. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor.g. all other applicable views (for example.). Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view. ensure Single Segment is selected. • random input variables (i. Maximize the Probability View.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed.e. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. 7 . Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth.Unwedge v. 10. select Data Type = Wedge Depth.11 . and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox.000 trials. Maximize the Probability View. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. wedge weight. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed.01). Again. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. support pressure. Double-click on the histogram. where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. Select OK. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. etc. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof. note that due to the variability in our input data. as shown below. and the adjoining segment to the right. and the 3D Wedge View. For example: On the sidebar.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment.

NOTE: For input random variables. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable. However. 4. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1). 7 . the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms.Unwedge v. The histogram is depicted below.12 . and click OK. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen. which is 3-dimensional.

let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. Click on the Probability View. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. Note the Correlation Coefficient. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis.13 . Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. and Scatter Plot open. You should have Probability View. 7 . 4. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. Before we start. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. For example. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. Histogram. Press enter to generate the plot. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. to tile all of the open views. listed at the bottom of the plot.Unwedge v. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation.

each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. and different analysis results (e. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots). Select OK in the Project Settings dialog.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure.g. 6. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed. which are not affected by re-running the analysis.e. Select OK. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data. Select the Random Numbers tab. and decrease number of samples from 10. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results. Select the Compute option from the toolbar. (i. the wedges based on the mean Input Data). Select Compute repeatedly. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. 4. 3. 4. you have additional views open). Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute. 8.14 .Unwedge v. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation. Now go to the Project Settings dialog. 7. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog.000 to 1000. 7 . To do this. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. 2. select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. 5. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random.g. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers. we want to select Compute repeatedly.

Unwedge v. Smith. A. 4. 2004. 2008. UK. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. 8th Edition.. 2006. 7 . A. J. J. Taylor & Francis. London. British Standards Institution. BS EN 1997-1. and Harris. Decoding Eurocode 7. Blackwell Publishing.15 . Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics.

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