Unwedge v. 4.

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Tutorial 7 | Probabilistic Analysis

Topics Covered:







Project Settings
Random Variables
Fisher Distribution
Mean Wedges
Picked Wedges
Histograms
Scatter Plots
Design Factor of Safety

run the Unwedge program by double-clicking on the Unwedge icon in your installation folder. joint orientation. If you have not already done so. 4. If the Unwedge application window is not already maximized. from which probabilities of failure (PF) are calculated. Select the General tab and change the Analysis Type to Probabilistic. located in the Unwedge 4.Unwedge v. select Programs > Rocscience > Unwedge 4. weg file.0 > Unwedge. this results in a distribution of safety factors for each wedge. bolt tensile capacity) to account for uncertainty in their values. Project Settings Select Project Settings from the toolbar or the Analysis menu. For this tutorial we will be using Metric units. field stress properties. In a Probabilistic Analysis. so make sure the Metric. When the analysis is computed.g. Or from the Start menu. maximize it now.0 Examples > Tutorials folder in your Unwedge installation folder. stress as MPa option is selected for Units. The finished product of this tutorial can be found in the Tutorial 07 Probabilistic Analysis. water pressure. so that the full screen is available for viewing the model.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Introduction This tutorial will familiarize the user with the Probabilistic Analysis features of Unwedge. you can define statistical distributions for input parameters (e. 7-2 .

partial factors of safety are applied to different components of the analysis. Select: View > View Limits and enter 250. and the default Number of Samples = 10. or defined within the program. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers. or single letter text command (e. Now. which must be greater than 1 to ensure the serviceability limit state requirement is satisfied. Y Coordinates and 280. Ensure you are in the Opening Section view. Eurocode 7 represents a major change in design philosophy. For more information on using Eurocode 7 in geotechnical design. 330 for the Maximum X. Select OK to close the Project Settings dialog.Unwedge v. we will use the Add Opening Section option. For this tutorial. The Sampling Method determines how the statistical distributions for the random input variables will be sampled. The cross-section can either be imported as a DXF file.g. Traditionally a single. Select: Boundaries > Add Opening Section Enter the following coordinates in the prompt line at the bottom right of the screen. Y Coordinates. we will use the defaults. The partial factors are applied prior to the analysis to give design values that are used in the calculation. We will discuss Pseudo-Random versus Random sampling later in this tutorial. This tab allows the user to design using Eurocode 7 specifications. Note that Pseudo-Random sampling is in effect by default. 300 for the Minimimum X. see Smith (2006) and Bond and Harris (2008). using the Add Opening Section option. The default Sampling Method = Latin Hypercube. Do not make any changes to these settings. NOTE: The Project Summary information can be displayed on printouts of analysis results. The Model We will start by creating the 2-dimensional cross-section of the excavation you wish to analyze. “a” for arc or “c” for close). The final result is an over-design factor. Design Standard Eurocode 7 is a design document that establishes rules and standards for geotechnical engineering design across Europe (BSI. lumped factor of safety accounts for all of the uncertainties in the problem. Select OK. to enter each coordinate pair.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Sampling and Random Numbers Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. 2004). 7-3 . Enter “Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial” as the Project Title.000. Project Summary Select the Project Summary tab in the Project Settings dialog. See the Unwedge help topics for more information about the sampling options. 4. This allows you to obtain reproducible results for a probabilistic analysis. Select the Random Numbers tab. Note: Press Enter at the end of each line. With Eurocode 7. using the Page Setup option in the File menu and defining a Header and/or Footer.

This option is used in probabilistic analyses for determining the probability of failure and required support pressure.]: a Select 3 points on arc..5 303 273 303 273 306 277. Enter second arc point [esc=cancel]: 271 320 Enter third arc point [esc=cancel]: 264.5 317 Enter vertex [. The probability of failure is P(FS < Design FS)..a=arc. Probabilistic Input Data Select Input Data from the Analysis menu or the toolbar. Enter number of segments in arc: 12.Unwedge v.]: c The opening section boundary should be automatically zoomed to the center of the view.5 317 Enter vertex [. Select: Analysis > Input Data Note the Design Factor of Safety option in the General tab.. select Zoom All (or press the F2 function key) to zoom the excavation to the center of the view.5 306 277..esc=cancel]: t Enter the following and select OK: X Y 264. Select OK. 4. If it is not.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Enter vertex [t=table. 7-4 .

Select OK. 4. To define a random variable for Joint 1 orientation. and lessens the chance of input data errors. at least one input parameter must be defined as a random variable. Only a single standard deviation is required. Notice that Dip now has a Normal distribution. Select Joint Orientations from the Statistics menu on the toolbar. click on Joint 1 (Joint Properties 1) on the left. a Fisher Distribution is recommended for generating random joint plane orientations. because it provides more predictable orientation distributions. the Dip and Dip Direction are treated as independent random variables (i. Set the Standard Deviation = 7. Notice our previous Dip / Dip Direction definitions are now overwritten. and Joint Properties tabs. Click the Add button in the Joint Orientations dialog. For more information about the Orientation Definition Method see the Unwedge Help system. the property can be changed to Dip Direction.Unwedge v. we’ll keep the default values for the General. you can define different statistical distributions for Dip and Dip Direction). Select: Statistics > Joint Orientations To carry out a Probabilistic Analysis with Unwedge. Note that there are TWO methods of defining the variability of joint orientation in an Unwedge Probabilistic analysis: • Orientation Definition Method = Dip / Dip Direction • Orientation Definition Method = Fisher Distribution With the Dip / Dip Direction method.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis For this tutorial. The Fisher Distribution method generates a symmetric. by checking the “Use Fisher Distribution” box on the top of the dialog. By clicking on Normal. Click OK. We will use the Fisher Distribution option. Joint Orientations. Similarly. 3-dimensional distribution of orientations around the mean plane orientation. you can change the distribution to various other distribution types.e. will add the Dip Direction as another random variable. In general. 7-5 . Repeat this process for Joint 2 with a Standard Deviation = 7 and Joint 3 with a Standard Deviation = 10. Clicking Add again.

Select: Statistics > Joint Properties Because all of our joints have the same properties. This will be demonstrated in a future tutorial. We will now define Phi. Select Compute on the toolbar or in the Analysis menu. Click on Phi to see a drop-down menu of the different properties to which we can assign distributions. Select: Analysis > Compute. we will be defining the following input parameters as random variables: • Joint 1 orientation • Joint 2 orientation • Joint 3 orientation • Phi of Joint Properties 1 All other model input parameters will be assumed to be “exactly” known (i. We have already defined the three joint orientations as random variables. as shown. Click OK. 7-6 . the angle of internal friction for Joint Properties 1 as a random variable. Click the Add button. Min = Rel.e.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis NOTE: Joint orientations can also be imported from Dips. Statistical Distribution = None) and will not be involved in the statistical sampling. We will assign a Normal distribution to Phi with a Standard Deviation = 5 and Rel. 4. Joint Properties 1 is the only property on the left of the dialog. For this example. Max = 15. Compute We are now ready to compute. For more information about statistical input see the Unwedge help system.Unwedge v.

000 random input data samples for each random variable. Take note that Maximum Support Pressure.Unwedge v. The progress of the calculation is indicated in the status bar. NOTE: For a discussion of the Probability of Failure see the Unwedge help system. Similarly. Due to the variability in our input data. because the roof wedge (8) had a factor of safety of 0. However if you wanted to show the 95th percentile.000 possible values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. It is important to understand the significance of this cross-section. and compute the probabilistic output for 10.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. their probability of failure is zero. Select Probability of Failure from the sidebar.000. 4.000 possible wedges which may span this segment. 10.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Using the Latin Hypercube sampling method. Your screen should look as follows: Note that because the wedges on the sides of the tunnel have factors of safety greater than our Design Factor of Safety = 1. Unwedge will generate 10. The default percentile is 100% which is the maximum of all support pressure values computed for a particular segment. this is possible as well. 7-7 . From the sidebar on the right. where 95 percent of all support pressure values for this segment lie below this value. is a function of location on the tunnel perimeter. its probability of failure is 1.000 shown in the side bar. The calculation may take a few minutes. and all probabilistic output. Select Probability View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar or the Select View sub-menu of the View menu. we can see that the values on the screen represent the Maximum Support Pressure. You can also use the percentile option in the sidebar to adjust which value of support pressure to show. using the specified statistical distributions. Probabilistic Analysis Results The results of the analysis can be studied in the Probability View.000 trials and the 10.000 possible wedge arrangements. Support Pressure is calculated for each segment from the 10. The maximum of these 10.

Leave Location as the default of Multiple Segments. Histograms To plot histograms of results after a Probabilistic Analysis. as shown. Now left-click and keeping the button pressed. select Plot Histogram from the toolbar or the Statistics menu: Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Factor of Safety from the Data Type menu. Now. This option shows the failed wedges (FS < design FS) along with the safe wedges (FS > design FS) on the same histogram. and are referred to as Mean Wedges. 4. Right-click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram from the popup menu. are based on the mean input values. Right click on the screen and select Select Inside Only from the Selection Window sub-menu. The wedges initially displayed after a Probabilistic analysis. The histogram represents the distribution of Safety Factors for all valid wedges generated by the random sampling of the Input Data.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Wedge Display Select 3D Wedge View from the drop-down menu on the toolbar. Notice that the cursor has turned into a selection box. as shown in the sidebar. right-click anywhere on the histogram and select Show Failed Wedges. The failed wedges are depicted in red. as shown. drag a box over just the roof section. This will display the histogram bars in 3D.Unwedge v. for all segments comprising the roof of the excavation. Select Pick Segments to plot the histogram. 7-8 . Release the left-click and then press enter. They will appear exactly the same as ones based on Deterministic input data and have the same safety factors.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis 7-9 .Unwedge v. 4.

Notice that different wedges are now displayed.10 . This is shown below. and the wedge in reference has been highlighted.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Selecting Random Wedges Right click on the histogram and select 3D Histogram to turn the setting off. cumulative plot. 7 . In the Sidebar. Minimize the Probability View and select Tile Vertically from the toolbar such that you see the 3D Wedge View and histogram side-by-side as shown below. and notice the different wedges and analysis results which are displayed. This feature allows you to view any wedge computation generated by the Probabilistic Analysis. and results for the wedges will be displayed in the Sidebar. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. 3. The highlighted wedge in the 3D Wedge View has been boldened in the sidebar and it has a factor of safety of about 5. Double-click on the histogram somewhere where the factor of safety is about 5. or scatter plot. 4. as expected. This option opens a 3D Wedge View and tiles the histogram with all other open views. the nearest corresponding wedges will be displayed in the Wedge view. A useful property of Histograms (as well as Cumulative Plots and Scatter Plots) is the following: If you double-click the LEFT mouse button anywhere on the plot. 4. corresponding to any point on a histogram. For example: 1. 2. the analysis results are updated to display results for the wedges that you are viewing.Unwedge v. Double-click at various points along the histogram.

where the Maximum Wedge Depth is about 12 m. and the 3D Wedge View. Note: • this feature can be used on histograms of any statistical data generated by Unwedge. A histogram of the wedge depth and the best-fit distribution to the data will be displayed.e. It should also be noted that the Wedge Depth discussed here and the Apex Height which can be displayed in the sidebar are synonymous. 7 . Maximize the Probability View. Select: View > Show Mean Wedges to reset the mean wedges display. note that due to the variability in our input data. To reset the mean wedges display: Select: View > Show Mean Wedges Histograms of Other Data In addition to Safety Factor. Click on the roof segment on the left (with maximum wedge depth = 12. all other applicable views (for example. 10.). as shown below. Wedge Depth is calculated for each segment from the 10. For example: On the sidebar. etc. and the adjoining segment to the right. Select the New Window button from the toolbar or the Window menu. • random input variables (i. change the display to Maximum Wedge Depth. Now right-click on the segment and select Plot Histogram.Unwedge v. the Info Viewer and the Stereonet View) are also updated to display data for the currently Picked Wedge. ensure Single Segment is selected. you can also plot histograms of: • other random output variables (e. You should now see a tiled view of the histogram and the 3D Wedge View.11 . support pressure. The segment should turn red.g. select Data Type = Wedge Depth.000 different wedge arrangements have been computed. In the dialog. by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis In addition to the Wedge View. and check the “Best Fit Distribution” checkbox. 4. Again. The wedge will be highlighted on the 3D Wedge View. Select OK. Close the histogram and 3D Wedge View by selecting the X in the upper right corner of each view. is due to a side wedge that intersects the upper left corner of the roof.01). We can now see from the 3D Wedge View.000 trials. and not just the Safety Factor histogram • this feature also works on Scatter Plots and Cumulative Plots. The maximum of these values is represented by the number displayed on the segment. Maximize the Probability View. any input data variable which was assigned a statistical distribution). that the relatively large Maximum Wedge Depth for this segment. Double-click on the histogram. wedge weight. Close the Wedge Depth histogram view.

0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Now let’s generate a histogram of an input random variable. Return to the Probability View by clicking on the Probability View tab on the bottom left of the screen. Select: Statistics > Plot Histogram Select Data Type = Dip (Joint 1).Unwedge v. However. because the orientation of Joint 1 was generated using a Fisher Distribution. which is a 2-dimensional plot of only one component (Dip) of the Joint 1 orientation. which is 3-dimensional. the Input Distribution cannot be displayed on the histogram.12 . NOTE: For input random variables. The histogram is depicted below. 7 . and click OK. 4. the Input Distribution can be displayed on histograms.

Compute (Random Sampling) So far in this tutorial we have used the default Pseudo-Random sampling option. which indicates the degree of correlation between the two variables plotted. let’s plot the Factor of Safety versus Dip (Joint 1). Histogram. Press enter to generate the plot. To generate a Scatter Plot: Select: Statistics > Plot Scatter In the Scatter Plot dialog. listed at the bottom of the plot. PseudoRandom sampling allows you to obtain reproducible results for a Probabilistic analysis. and numbers close to 1 or –1 indicate a good correlation.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis Scatter Plots Scatter plots allow you to examine the relationship between any two analysis variables. 4.13 . Before we start. to tile all of the open views. Click on the Probability View. and Scatter Plot open. let’s arrange the views as follows: Select the Tile Vertically option from the toolbar or the Window menu.Unwedge v. The Correlation Coefficient can vary between -1 and 1 where numbers close to zero indicate a poor correlation. 7 . by allowing a variable seed value to generate the random input data samples. Ensure Multiple Segments is selected. Note that a negative correlation coefficient simply means that the slope of the best fit linear regression line is negative. Select Pick Segments and select the roof segments as before. We will now demonstrate how different outcomes can result from a Probabilistic analysis. This is why you can obtain the exact values shown in this tutorial. select the variables you would like to plot on the X and Y axes. For example. You should have Probability View. Note the Correlation Coefficient. Select the “Show Regression Line” option to display the best fit straight line through the data. and change the display to 3D Wedge View using the drop-down menu on the toolbar. by using the same “seed” value to generate random numbers.

Select the Random Numbers tab. 6. Select the Sampling tab in the Project Settings dialog. Select: Analysis > Project Settings 1. then close all views except for the three noted above such that your screen resembles the figure. 3. each time you re-run the Probabilistic analysis. select: File > Preferences and uncheck the “Disable compute button when results are up to date” button. and decrease number of samples from 10. 4. the wedges based on the mean Input Data).g. 7 . Select OK in the Project Settings dialog. 7.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis If your screen does not look similar to the figure (e. Probability of Failure) each time you re-compute. That concludes the Unwedge Probabilistic Analysis Tutorial. since by default the Mean Wedges are displayed.g. 5. Now go to the Project Settings dialog. 2. Select OK. This will result in different sampling of your input random variables. and observe how the windows are updated each time the analysis is re-run.000 to 1000. Unwedge will only allow the user to select Compute if a change has been made to the input data.Unwedge v. Note that the Wedge view does not change when you re-compute. Select the Compute option from the toolbar. Notice that the Histogram plot and Scatter plot are updated with new results. 8. In order to see the way that data changes when using Random Generation. we want to select Compute repeatedly. and different analysis results (e. (This will make the change in results easier to see on the plots).14 . you have additional views open). (i. 4. and change the Random Number Generation method from Pseudo-Random to Random.e. To do this. Select Compute repeatedly. which are not affected by re-running the analysis. The Random option will use a different seed value to generate random numbers.

A. BS EN 1997-1. Smith’s Elements of Soil Mechanics. 2006. Smith.Unwedge v. Taylor & Francis. and Harris.0 Tutorial Manual Tutorial 7: Probabilistic Analysis References Bond. Decoding Eurocode 7. J. 4. Eurocode 7: Geotechnical design – Part 1: General rules. London. British Standards Institution.15 . Blackwell Publishing. 7 . 2008. 2004. J. 8th Edition.. UK. A.

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