CHAOS THEORY AND ITS IMPACT ON TUNA

SPECIES: LOGISTIC EQUATION AND ITS

IMPLICATIONS

Masters Dissertation

Submitted by:

Ankita Malhotra

In partial fulfilment for the

Degree of MSc. (Economics)

Submitted to:
Department of Policy Studies TERI University
Plot 10, Vasant Kunj Institutional Area
New Delhi 110070
INDIA

May 2015

May 2015

DECLARATION

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Ankita Malhotra has carried out her Masters Dissertation in partial
fulfilment of the degree on the topic Chaos theory and its impact on Tuna SpeciesLogistic Equation and its Implicationsduring July 2014-May 2015
The report embodies the original work of the candidate to the best of our knowledge.

Dr.Anandajit Goswami,
Supervisor,
TERI, Indian Habitat Centre
New Delhi
11007
Date May 25,2015

Dr Shaleen Singhal,
Head of Department
Department of Policy Studies, TERI University
Plot No 10,Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj
New Delhi-1100700
Date : May 25,2015

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all ,I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my Thesis supervisor Dr
Anandajit Goswami for his continuous support and motivation in making this research
indeed a full filled learning experience and helping me to push my boundaries to derive
the maximum output out of this research.
Additionally I would also like to thank Dr Nitya Nanda for his valuable suggestions for
making this thesis achieve better results .Also, I would like to thank Dr Nandan for his
continuous motivation and support .Last but not the least I would like to thank all my
friends and family members for bestowing their trust which motivated me put maximum
effort into the thesis.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ..................................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................................iii
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................iv
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1
LITERATURE REVIEW....................................................................................................................... 5
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 8
ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 24
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 25
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................. 27

ii

ABSTRACT
Chaos and randomness are words that we keep on hearing quite often now a days. The
present day world has moved from accurate prediction to the world of unpredictability
with words like randomness and chaos occupying most of our lives. Most of the processes
that we observe and see around are essentially nonlinear in nature. One of the most
interesting ways in which nonlinear systems behave is Chaos. Though each step in the
system can be described mathematically yet there might not be any way to predict or
govern the behavior of the system after a point of time. These systems display the
property of sensitivity to initial conditions meaning a minute change in the initial
conditions of the systems might alter the behavior of the system in such a manner that it
might turn out be completely unpredictable in nature.
In the light of this knowledge, an effort was made to connect the idea of Chaos to
Fisheries as despite being management for a lot of years there was a huge lag between the
expected results and actual situation at hand .Taking this as a starting point of my thesis,
an effort was made to tried observe the behavior of Tuna species in Japan. After using
various tools to explore and figure out the nature of chaos, the work tried connecting my
results to suggest certain policy issues. Fisheries and most of the natural systems around
us will always remain subject to fluctuations however the aim of my thesis is to figure out
a sustainable approach for fisheries management in the long run.

iii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Return plot

Figure 2: Change in Predator Population
Figure 3: Return Plot of Change in Predator Population
Figure 4: Change in Prey Population
Figure 5: Return Plot of Change in Prey Population
Figure 6: Predator Population with time
Figure 7: Prey Population with Time
Figure 8: Predator Prey Interaction
Figure 9: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 10: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 11: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 12: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 13: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 14: Analysis of Amplitude
Figure 15: Technology Plot
Figure 16: Technology Return plot
Figure 17: Controlling Chaos

iv

INTRODUCTION

1. Linearity and Chaos

The environmental and ecological systems that we observe around us are not static and
the phenonemenna of this continuous change in systems of interest is popularly known as
dynamics Dynamical systems can be classified into two parts namely linear and Non
linear. Linear system is a dynamical system whose evolution follows a linear trajectory
wherein we can substitute half or five or hundred for twice and the description remains
valid (Edward Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos).In non linear systems however a change in
variable at an initial stage can lead to change in the variable of interest or any other
variable at a later stage which is not proportional to the initial change.
Any linear system is easily mathematically traceable as the system can be broken up parts
and each part solved separately to arrive at a complete solution .On the contrary non
linear systems cannot be broken up into parts and they have to be dealt in their entire
complexity with all the variables interacting together in a single time frame. This makes
the behavior of non linear systems highly unpredictable and certain tools will be required
to deduce their behavior.
Nature is intrinsically nonlinear and non-linearity is a rule rather than exception in most
of the systems that we observe around us. Nonlinear systems depict a variety of behaviors
and the one such behavior of Non linear systems is popularly known as Chaos. Chaos
basically refers to the stochastic behavior occurring in a deterministic system
.Developments over time lead to the formulation of Chaos theory which basically
involves the study of nonlinear systems dealing with predicting seemingly random events
from simple deterministic systems. The basic idea of chaos theory is that systems no
matter however complex follows an underlying order and even very seemingly simple
systems evolve into complex behavior or ideas.

2. Chaos and Randomness

Chaos theory in itself is a wonderful contradiction as it aims at predicting the behavior of
inherently unpredictable systems .Essentially chaos is a mathematical too that allows us
to extract order out of randomness and dig deep into the complex working of natural
systems .The main premise of Chaos theory is that chaos and randomness are not poles
apart. From outside chaotic systems display completely unpredictable as well as chaotic
behavior but if we explore the inner workings of that system we may find a completely
deterministic set of equations governing the behavior of system.
The explanation of this chaotic behavior lies deep beneath the phenonemeann of butterfly
effect. Edward Lorenz was utilizing the new found power of computers in order to predict
the weather accurately. He created a mathematical model which could predict the weather
conditions in the future with the help of the current weather conditions. While working on
it Lorenz observed that difference of even one part in a thousand the same some sort of
difference that a flap of butterflies wing could make on your face will alter the predictions
enormously.
Lorenz had indeed found the underpinnings of chaos .In systems that work perfectly small
differences can cause small effects however in this case the Lorenz equations were indeed
causing errors to grow in a steady manner over the course of time.
If we can somehow understand the nature of chaotic systems we can turn the inherent
instability found in chaotic systems into an asset by gaining some control over the very
system that causes randomness. This behavior of chaotic systems can be understood by
understanding its preferred set of behaviors known as attractors in the mathematical
domain .Knowing the attractor helps us to narrow down the possibilities of the behavior
of a chaotic system.
Chaos Theory has extended its branches into diverse fields ranging from physics to
economics and is known for drawing specialists from many fields .Chaotic systems can
be observed all around us and most of them share common features irrespective of the
field they originate from.
2

The environmental and ecological systems that we observe around us are not static and
the phenonemeann of this continuous change in systems of interest is popularly known as
dynamics Dynamical systems can be classified into two parts namely linear and Non
linear. Linear system is a dynamical system whose evolution follows a linear trajectory
wherein we can substitute half or five or hundred for twice and the description remains
valid (Edward Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos).In non linear systems however a change in
variable at an initial stage can lead to change in the variable of interest or any other
variable at a later stage which is not proportional to the initial change.
Any linear system is easily mathematically traceable as the system can be broken up parts
and each part solved separately to arrive at a complete solution .On the contrary non
linear systems cannot be broken up into parts and they have to be dealt in their entire
complexity with all the variables interacting together in a single time frame. This makes
the behavior of non linear systems highly unpredictable and certain tools will be required
to deduce their behavior.
Nature is intrinsically nonlinear and non-linearity is a rule rather than exception in most
of the systems that we observe around us. Non

linear systems depict a variety of

behaviors and the one such behavior of Non linear systems is popularly known as Chaos.
Chaos basically refers to the stochastic behavior occurring in a deterministic system
.Developments over time lead to the formulation of Chaos theory which basically
involves the study of nonlinear systems dealing with predicting seemingly random events
from simple deterministic systems. The basic idea of chaos theory is that systems no
matter however complex follow an underlying order and even very seemingly simple
systems evolve into complex behavior or ideas.
The fact that fisheries populations can be expected to vary within certain limits given the
stability of certain factors suggests that fisheries can be managed by maintaing those
factors.James A wilson propose that fisheries should be managed on rules regarding how
fishing is done to maintain regular biological processes rather than keeping a control on
the amount of fish caught to maintain MSY over the entire range of stock.

The numerical approach focuses attention impsoing controls on mortality on target

species. which is the fatal flaw. It demands so much information that these management
regimes are impractical. The lack of effectiveness of such systems is noted by fishers,
who have a strong motivation to become free riders, raising enforcement costs and
making policy analysis and management difficult.

LITERATURE REVIEW

1. Mathematical Basis
According to PM Allen and JM Mc Glade fishing represents a case study involving of
the much broader issues of adaptiveness, creativity and learning. Commercial fisheries
are part of a complex marine ecosystem involving ocean climate, hydrology, fish ecology
and also human systems including behavior and knowledge of fishermen and the market
for fish product, government policy regulation and political issues (Mc Glade and Allen
1985)
The interface of industry and fishermen with fisheries resources is multifaced and
usually predicted by a knowledge of resource didtribution,demand and availability (Kirby
1982;Pearse 1982).Fisheries as well the trends in fishing activities will cause changes in
the abundance of fish stock such that target species as well as those caught incidentally
during the process reflect trends in the market as well as the complex biological and
enviornmental dynamics.To intervene and to monitor such a complex system and to
formulate the appropiate management techniques it is necessary to identify the processes
that interrelate fish and their abundance,fishermen ,enviornmental conditions all of which
interact to determine the final stock.
The mathematical basis for management of fisheries are rooted in equations of population
dynamics and mathematical ecology.However while studying a complex system
subjective view of each actor in the process must be taken into consideration rather than
invoking some general rule such as optimal efficency or existence of an equilibrium
state.While dealing with complex systems fluctuations are an integral part and explain the
very essence as well as evoluationary path of the system.
In case of fisheries the feedback responses of human systems are such that they amplify
the random fluctuations of the enviornment and generate cycles of booms and busts
despite thefact that determinstic system has a stable equilibrium solution.

According to James A Wilson Lylod M Dicke fishing activities lead to degradation of

the biotic enviornment of species upsetting there feeding patterns and leading for reduced
opportunities of growth and survival.The theory predicts that when fishing removes too
many fish before they have a chance to reproduce the adaptive
mechanisms are no longer

density dependent

capable of restorting the initial productivity im order to

ensure sustainted catch.Management addresses the problem by reducing fishing mortality

in order to allow the stocks to rebuild or reach to sustainable levels.However the
reduction in fishing mortality might not always lead to recovery of a particular fisheries.
Abundance of fisheries varies in regard to various paarmetric constraints so that indiviual
species are not independently controllable entities and their management requires taking
all the parameters into account .Hence this requires development of rules appropiate to
parametric management in order to address these concerns.

2. Management of Fisheries
According to James A wilson the central idea of most mathematical models in case of
fisheries is that long term sustainability of fishing stock is related to the amount of
exploitative effort on that stock.Mathematical relationship between fish stock and effort
can be established .When stocks are low due to overfishing then larger the parent stock
,the larger the additions to future stock.The objective of most numerical management
models is to control the tonage of fish caught .However there is no concern about the
effects of fishing on the broader enviornmental considerations and on the sustainability
of fish populations.Rather than imposing controls on the amount of fishing there is a
need to consider factors like location ,time ,satge of the target species and technology
used in fishing .
Recent work by a research group suggests that even simple communities of fish exibhit
chaotic patterns,the population levels of indiviual species vary unpredictibility within a
limit though they are bounded within a range. . These conclusions are the result of work
with a simulation model reported in James A. Wilson et al. (1991a, 1991b), which
approxi mates the conditions (spawning, growth, and mortality figures) seen in a typical
groundfish population in te mperate waters.
6

In various models of biological systems, these parameters represent such things as

spawning potential, growth rates, habitat, and migra tion. In the real world, some of these
basic input factors remain relatively stable over the course of time. Their stability is the
reason that fish populations can be expected to vary within certain limits, even though
population changes will remain unpredictable. This implies that if the parameters of the
system remain relatively constant, the variation of fish populations will remain within
normal or historic limits. Even if fisheries are not chaotic, they are certainly complex, as
Donald Ludwig et al. (1993) have pointed out. In either case, fisheries are unpredictable.
The problem is how to manage without the ability to predict outcomes.
The fact that fisheries populations can be expected to vary within certain limits given the
stability of certain factors suggests that fisheries can be managed by maintaing those
factors.James A wilson propose that fisheries should be managed on rules regarding how
fishing is done to maintain regular biological processes rather than keeping a control on
the amount of fish caught to maintain MSY over the entire range of stock.
The numerical approach focuses attention impsoing

controls on mortality on target

species. which is the fatal flaw. It demands so much information that these management
regimes are impractical. The lack of effectiveness of such systems is noted by fishers,
who have a strong motivation to become free riders, raising enforcement costs and
making policy analysis and management difficult.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The behaviour of population dynamics is usually governed by the a simple model of
population growth given by Malthus as

Where r is the growth rate however we can make this system nonlinear by letting r
depend on x and hence we want the growth rate to decrease as r increases .Let the fertility
rate of a particular fish species be denoted by r that is every fish produces an average of r
offsprings in a life cycle. There is fixed amount of food on the island such that if the
population of fisheries increases

, the average fertility decreases .This leads us to the

Logistic map

The logistic Map shows varieties of behaviors and it has transitions among them as we
change the value of the parameter r and such transitions in nonlinear dynamical systems
are called bifurcations.
Depending on different values of r the systems behaves in various stages namely
convergence oscillations , period 2 chaos, and period 4 chaos. when a 0.6, {
gradually decreases and then converge to 0 When a = 2.0, {
according to a sigmoid curve When a=3.3, {

} converges to(a-1)/a

} increases exponentially starting with the

initial value, converges, gradually causes oscillations, and then eventually begins to
oscillate between two values This is called period-2 oscillation. When a = 3.5, period4oscillation is observed). When a = 4.0, the values are never the same and present
fluctuations that appear irregular.
1. Orbital instability and Sensitive Dependence
The most important property of deterministic chaos is sensitive dependence on initial
conditions which can be arrived at by comparing time evolutions of two different initial
conditions. In conventional science it is considered that if the difference in initial
8

conditions is small then the difference in final conditions will also be small however such
a rule does not apply to a simple deterministic system. As it is impossible to set the initial
values of a system with infinite accuracy such reproducibility might not be achieved due
to sensitive dependence on initial conditions. This process is called orbital instability.
2.

Self Similarity and Bifurcation Diagrams

The parameter governing the behavior of the system is called control parameter
.Bifurcation diagram shows the behavior of the system with change in control parameter
a. As the value of a increases the system shows 4 period oscillation, 8 period
oscillation,16 period oscillation and so forth.
3. Nonlinear Ecological Dynamics
Silver towns Model-Population density or an increase in initial population affects factors
such as birth rate, death rate, mortality rate. This phenonemeann is known as density
dependence .An increase in initial density results in higher mortality and lower growth
rate of population because competition for resources such as light, air and water
increases.
The number of fisheries added to the population and initial fishing population can be
expressed by the following equations

Also, the relationship between number of new fish population added due to reproduction
Xn in the n th year and also in n+1 year can be expressed as

The above equation represents a dynamical system .The fish population of generation
An+1 is determined by the population of previous year
9

Using a straight 45 degree line that represents reproduction number of fish population in
the succeeding generation can be represented as a function of fish population in the
previous generation.( Symonides, 1986; Silvertown 1992).In case of logistic difference
equation the slope of a line is 1 and control parameter is a function of density dependence
.As percentage reproduction is basically density-independent both density dependence
and density independence determine population dynamics.
The Research aims at studying the nature of Growth rate of Tuna fish in Japan for the
year 1950-2010 using the logistic growth models to check its relevance in management
approaches of the fisheries Ecosystem .However the Logistic growth model has often
been criticized for its assumption that an equilibrium will always exist and also the
assumption that parameters such as birth rate and fishing mortality will remain constant.
Though the logistic equation opened the era of chaos however when applied to growth
rate of fisheries the implications of the model are based on an equilibrium and stability of
parameters model which is the fatal flaw .This is explained in the research methodology
given belowThe logistic equation is given as

Showing that the population in the previous year or what is known as n th year is a
function of population in the previous years due to density dependence .The population
shows different behaviors depending on the specific values of a. For some specific values
of a the system tends to converge to a particular value ,for others it tends to oscillate
between two values while for other values the system follows not definite pattern and
tends towards a chaotic stage .As soon as this model was brought out it brushed aside the
theory that complexity cannot arise from simplicity.
4. Fisheries

10

In case of fisheries the model that is commonly used to manage fisheries or to depict the
sustainable level of harvest is the Logistic growth model itself .Differentiating the logistic
equation over time we get the logistic growth equation as

Where the first term represents the growth rate of population, b is the birth rate and N is
the carrying capacity. However in case of fisheries certain organisms are fished out of the
ecosystem due to natural mortality or due to overfishing .Hence we need to modify our
equation as-

In this equation the first term basically represents the density dependent birth rate, the
second term represents natural mortality and last term represents the effect of fishing on
population. Now, there is an assumption that populations do not grow indefinitely and
they do reach an equilibrium size when the number of resources available matches the
size of the resource .
This equation basically depicts a parabola with the maximum value at F=(b-m)/2 which
is known as the Maximum sustainable yield. Despite its theoretical simplicity attempts to
guide fisheries to this level have proven extremely difficult .In real world systems levels
of exploitation over long periods can be only found by hit and trial and sometimes this
results in not having a management policy at all. Moreover for management purposes the
interpretation of MSY that is of taking a fixed catch year after year and hence a constant
catch strategy would not be an appropriate management technique.
To overcome the shortcomings of the logistic equation and to include other factors in the
model the Volterra-Lodka equations were developed which show the interaction between
species at two levels namely the predator and the prey. The equations for this model are

11

Where in y is the predator population and s is a fraction of total catch .The second
equation represents the rate of growth of the predator population and the decrease due to
natural mortality. When we take N to be approaching to a finite value we get damped
oscillations tending to a stationary sate as Xs=m/s and ys=b(1-m/Ns)/s. Addition of
factors given above which take into account external factors such as predator population
can give rise to deterministic oscillatory solutions. These equations help to treat
fishermen as active part of the entire system rather than treating them out of the system.
To an extent this model also helps to overcome the shortcomings of the logistic equation
which assumes that parameters b, m and N can be expressed by their average values
ignoring other impacts.
In the light of these two models I intend to create a dynamic analysis using the logistic
equation model with fluctuations wherein natural fluctuations around the birth rate of
fisheries are captured. I also intend to use other variables such as Price of Tuna Fish in
the market, natural mortality rate ,catch per unit time, rate of response of efforts to
profitability ,catch per unit time and then to observe the behavior of these factors
depending on various changes in the initial conditions.
I also attend to extend this model to a probalistic analysis wherein I include the
fishermens decision to switch grounds and species according to the relative opportunities
and also the movement of fishermen according to the information they receive.
5. Area of Research
For thousands of years Japan has served as a cultural and economic resource. In the
recent years harvesting a host of marine organisms has posed a risk to the ocean with the
onset of other factors such as climate change, overfishing and other threats .While
management plans have been adopted for several stocks, species such as Tuna face
collapse .As of 2009 42 of Japans 84 fish stocks were categorized as low by countrys
Ministry of Fishing ,Forest and Agriculture (Statistical Handbook Of Japan,2012).While
12

fisheries depletion is a global phenonemeann it is mostly relevant in Japan where seafood

consumption is staggeringly high.23% of the average protein intake comes from ocean,3
times that of an average American.
Reported earnings in the fishing industry were 1.5 trillion yen in 2011 , down from 16
trillion yen in 2006(Statistical Handbook of Japan 2012).The increased use of power
trawlers and other gear innovations has resulted in overexploitation of marine resources
.Japans Blue fine tuna fish stock has declined over the years with scientists estimating
that their current fish stock is 4% of the original un fished population (Jolly, 2013)
While the tuna stock has been collapsing

Japan has been able to manage some of its

localized fisheries. In order to stay afloat in the global and political scenario Japan will
have to adopt more sustainable measures and to implement appropriate management
strategies since its history of seafood consumption and economic value of fishing industry
are one of the major obstacles in saving the Tuna fisheries.
In order to evaluate the existing management techniques existing in Japan as well as to
develop new approaches it is essential to study the nature of growth rate of fisheries
keeping in

light all the other parameters such as habitat, climatic conditions and

environmental conditions to see the effects of these parameters on the population growth
rate.
The data of Global Tuna Fish stock was collected for the years 1950-2010 was collected
from website of Food and Agriculture Organization. Till now the behavior of the tuna fish
stock for Japan has been found to be nonlinear and the best fit has been found to be a
polynomial of three degree after plotting the population of one year as a function of other.
After this trying to find the software that would minimize the error and generate the best
fit in order to find the points at which chaos occurs. After this the work progresses ito
plot the bifurcation diagram for the logistic map .For each value of r the system is
allowed to settle down and then successive values of x are plotted for successive values.
Using this bifurcation diagram we can predict the points at which the system switches to

13

chaos and hence the effect of growth rate r on the population values of the logistic
function.
6. Method of Study
Firstly the study took the equation of population dynamics as my base to model the data.
Population of the n+1 th year is the function of the population in the n th year.

The system behaves in different manner for different values of a .For some values of a the
system behaves in a chaotic manner while for others it tends to converge to a particular
value .The simplest value to capture dynamics was to create a return plot which was
expressed as a function of

vs

.The data for Tuna Fish stock was collected from

1950-200 from the Food and Agricultural Organization website.

Figure 1: Return Plot

(DATA SOURCE: Food and Agricultural Organization)

Trend lines were also fitted in the two parts of the return plot to figure out the trend that
the curves follow .For the upward trend the trend was found to be a polynomial trend with
14

a coefficient of correlation of 0.9385 while for the downward trend the coefficient was
found to be 0.9348.Chaos was found to occur at the point (105454, 132908).After
figuring out the nature of system I tried to made an attempt to study the factors that could
be responsible for this chaotic nature. The following graph indicates the factors that the
study intends to look at
There are a host of factors such as environmental, biological and human factors that affect
the yield of fisheries through the operation of factors such as growth rate, natural
mortality rate and fishing mortality. In order to model these factors that are involved in
the entire process it is important to model these factors .To model these factors it is
important to invoke the logistic equation.
The rate of change in fisheries population over time was expressed as the difference
between the injections and ejections of the system .Injections into the system are
represented as a function of birth rate which are the additions into the system. Ejection
represents the decrease in the population of the system due to fishing effort as well as
natural mortality. The logistic equation is based on the fact that the growth in population
of species does tend towards an equilibrium value and it doesnt treat fishermen as an
active part of the system .Logistic equation assumes stability of parameters such as the
birth rate which might not be the case always .To overcome this the Volterra-Lodka
equation was bought into the picture which captured the interaction between the predator
and prey and bring into light the impact of human effort on the fish population.

15

Figure 2 :Change in Predator Population

SOURCE: Created Using Excel

To capture the change in the predator population over time a graph was plotted to study
the change in predator population over time and it was found to be an exponential fit
.The very fact that the best fit is an exponential trend line shows that the parameter birth
rate is unstable in this case.
This brings out an important fact that b is not stable over time and there are indeed
inherent fluctuations in the birth rate itself .To extrapolate further return plot was plotted
and the graph was found to be chaotic .

16

Similarly the change in prey population was plotted and the return plot was also potted to
capture the nature of the non linear pattern.
Figure 4

Source: Created Using Excel

17

Figure 5 :Return plot

Return plot of prey population

Source: Created Using Excel

In order to move forward then the interaction between predator and prey were plotted to
figure out the exact nature of the entire system.
Figure 6: Change in Predator Population over time

Source: Created Using Excel

18

Figure 7: Change in Prey Population

Figure 8: Predator Prey Interaction

The interaction between the predator and prey points out to the fact that there is no linear
of deterministic relation between the change in predator as well as prey population over
19

the years. To further study the nature of chaos and to see in what forms does chaos
manifests itself in the system it was essential to study the emergence of butterfly effect in
the system by taking different amplitude values ranging from 0.05 to 8 and the following
graphs were obtained.
Figure 9: Amplitude Analysis

SEQUENCE WHEN a=0.05

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

Figure 10 :Amplitude Analysis

Sequence when a=0.6

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
-2E+10
-4E+10
-6E+10

Series1

-8E+10
-1E+11
-1.2E+11

20

Figure 11: Amplitude Analysis

a=3.5
0
-1E+11 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

-2E+11
-3E+11
-4E+11
-5E+11
-6E+11
-7E+11

Figure 12: Amplitude Analysis

sequence when a=4

0
-1E+11 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
-2E+11
-3E+11
-4E+11
-5E+11
-6E+11
-7E+11
-8E+11

These graphs indeed show that starting from the smallest amplitude value chaos is
emerging in the system if not inherent in it .The emergence of butterfly effect can be
further studied by invoking the condition of sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
21

Since there seems to be no deterministic relationship between the predator and prey it is
essential to study the impact of other factors such as technology and the contribution of
other factors in determining the chaotic nature .Hence the following graphs and return
plot were plotted to determine the change in population of tuna species by changing the
technology for catching the fish.
Figure 13: Technology Plot

.
Source: Created Using Excel

22

Figure 13 :Technology Return Plot

Source: Created Using Excel

This shows that even technology as a factor alone could not be the reason for the chaotic
behavior of fisheries. After observing that there was no single factor that was responsible
for this chaotic behavior of fisheries restriction was imposed to control the inherent chaos
present in the system and to check if the system can move towards a linear fashion .To do
that decadal average value of the prey population was taken and the model was observed
to move towards a linear trend.
Figure 14: Controlling Chaos

23

Source: Created Using Excel

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

After analyzing the Tuna fisheries and the reason reasons responsible for its Chaotic
behavior and observing the plethora of factors that could be responsible for this chaotic
behavior following results can be stated
1) There seems to be no single factor that is responsible for the chaotic behavior of
Tuna fisheries. There are fluctuations inherent in the system itself and the outside
noise amplifies it.

24

2) The system does show the convergence to a linear trend after controlling for chaos
however there seems no single factor operating within the fisheries ecosystem
which if controlled can lead to the convergence towards a linear trend.
3) The analysis with the Volterra-Lodka equation shows that it is not possible to
maintain fisheries by restricting overfishing since the behavior of the predator
population itself is not deterministic which suggests a serious policy failure.
4) The analysis done to check for the presence of butterfly effect in the system shows
that system has the presence of butterfly effect and doesnt converge ,oscillate or
saturate to a particular value
5) Since there is no single factor that could be studied or held responsible for chaotic
nature of fisheries we could look at the possibility of looking at other factors such
as environmental factors like temperature and price of Tuna fisheries in the
market.
6) The analysis of the results suggest a serious need to move beyond the current
policy approaches that are in place. There is a need to adopt the self-governance
approach which considers the impact of all the parameters on the system rather
than studying all of them in isolation.

CONCLUSION
Through my research, an attempt was made to study the case of Management of fisheries
in general with a special focus on Tuna Fisheries. As the growth rate of fish population
has been found to be Chaotic, the management of fisheries needs to be examined in light
of parametric approach rather than stock recruitment model which focus on Maximum
Sustainable yield. To take this research further the following possibilities can be explored

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1 ) Evaluating and studying the scientific underpinning of approach called the stock
recruitment or the numerical approach suggested by most biologists.
2) Studying the behavior of chaotically fluctuating fish stocks through various tools such
as bifurcation diagrams and hence studying the impact of various parameters in the
fisheries model on the population growth rate
3) Critically evaluating

the existing management techniques and trying to develop a

socio economic framework in light of the parametric approach for management of

fisheries and assessing its feasibility.
4) Examining stability of system due to addition of white noise or random component.
5) Examining the Effects of different rates of response and market elasticities to explore
various policy options.
6) Studying the relationship between fishing effort and population dynamics.
7) Understanding the role of actors and subjective view of each actor involved.
8) Studying the role of Fluctuations as a motor of evolutionary change and explaining the
very nature of system
A plethora of factors are essential for an institution to be crafted and moreover to achieve
the targeted expectations. Numerical management which demands a lot of data makes
monitoring a lot more costly and moreover the basic premise on which it works that is the
existence of an equilibrium in the growth of fish populations has itself been challenged.
The results are marked problems in fisheries management regulations.
Hence we have a lot to earn from third world countries using the parametric approach as
well a s to suggest it to scientists as well as administrators to determine its economic as
well as economic feasibility.

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REFERENCES
A. D. Fisher & others (2000) Transient dynamics of an altered large marine
ecosystem
Caddy,JF,(1983).`An alternative to management theory to fisheries World Conference on
Fisheries Management and Development FAO

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CM Hommlund ,M Hammer , (2003).`Ecological services generated by fish populations'.

Journal of Ecological Economics.
Hs Gordon,(2002)The economic theory of a common property resource: the fishery
Journal of Political Economy
Holling ,C.S (2003),`Adaptive Enviornmental

assessment

and management

International Series on Applied System Analysis .Wiley International Science ,New York,
NY
James A Wilson, James A Acheson (2008) Order out Of Chaos American
Anthropologist.
Kenshi Sakai, Implementation of Chaos theory and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis on
Ecological and Economic Systems in Agriculture.
Kerr, Sr and RA Ryder 1989 Current approaches to Multispecies Analysis of Fisheries
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and aquatic Sciencies , 46:528-534

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