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Idirect Bel Q4fy16
Idirect Bel Q4fy16
June 1, 2016
Rating matrix
Rating Matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside
:
:
:
:
Buy
| 1560
12 - 15 months
32%
| 1185
Variance analysis
Q4FY16 Q4FY16E
Q4FY15
YoY (%)
Total Revenues
3,214.9
7,599.3
2,928.2
9.8
1,517.2
111.9
1,498.6
352.9
4,164.0
1,524.3
1,505.9
366.5
-0.5
-3.7
761.1
307.9
96.9
14.6
Other Expenses
364.5
669.2
263.2
38.5
155.7
134.2
2,216.0
6,357.6
2,135.6
3.8
1,224.6
81.0
998.8
1,241.8
792.6
26.0
292.6
241.4
31.1
16.3
4.1
2.4
1.1
264.9
0.1
46.8
175.5
42.6
9.7
41.4
12.9
Tax
279.9
351.1
164.5
70.1
90.8
208.4
Other Income
133.6
608.1
138.6
-3.5
135.5
-1.3
PAT
794.5 1,320.9
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
722.9
9.9
295.7
168.7
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
EBITDA margins (%)
Interest
Depreciation
Comments
Strong Q4FY16 on account of higher execution. Execution for FY16 was at 30.5% of
the order backlog vs. 28.9% in FY15
Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Old
FY17E
New
% Change
Old
FY18E
New % Change
Revenue
8,863.2
8,851.0
-0.1
10,002.7
10,349.5
3.5
EBITDA
1,274.8
1,475.2
15.7
1,389.8
1,674.2
20.5
14.7
16.7
197 bps
14.2
16.2
198 bps
1,401.1
1,386.1
-1.1
1,489.8
1,498.1
0.6
58.4
57.8
-1.1
62.1
62.4
0.5
Comments
Revenue for FY17E revised marginally downwards despite high order
backlog. This is because of large orders in its order book. Execution
period for large orders is 36-48 months
Company Analysis
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
The export order book was at ~US$120 million. Order inflow for
Q4FY16 was at | 3100 crore, up 12% YoY while for FY16 it was at
| 17,094 crore (| 5112 crore in FY15)
Page 3
Company Analysis
Revenue growth of 19.1% CAGR in FY16-18E to be driven order inflows
and strong execution
We expect standalone revenues to increase from | 7295 crore in FY16 to
| 10350 crore in FY18E at a CAGR of 19.1%, mainly on the back of strong
order inflows and execution of backlog orders over the next two years.
Order backlog as on FY16 stands at | 32022 crore. We expect order
inflows of | 14,000 crore in FY17E and FY18E. Assuming, execution rate
of 23% for backlog orders and 10% execution rate for current year order
inflows, we estimate BEL will post revenues of | 8851 crore in FY17E and
| 10350 crore in FY18E.
Exhibit 1: Revenue trend
12,000
10,350
10,000
8,851
| crore
8,000
6,276
6,843
7,295
FY15
FY16
6,000
4,000
2,000
FY14
FY17E
FY18E
| crore
13.2%
37257
41008
32022
25748
24949
FY12
FY13
23200
21617
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Order Backlog
Page 4
| crore
17094
14000
14000
FY17E
FY18E
7916
5305
FY12
FY13
4527
FY14
5260
FY15
FY16
Orders Inflows
Page 5
14.2
6,000
6,843 16.7
20.0
8,851
16.2
16.7
20
15
10
4,000
2,000
7,295
| crore
8,000
25
10,350
891
1,143
1,461
1,475
1,674
5
0
FY14
FY15
Revenues
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
EBITDA
1,600
1,400
1,200
| crore
1,000
1,167
17.1
932
800
1,358
18.6
1,386
1,498
15.7
14.8
14.5
600
400
200
FY14
FY15
Net Profit
FY16
FY17E
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
FY18E
Margins (%)
Page 6
17.7
15.0
22.0
19.6
15.5
14.8
13.3
19.9
19.6
14.5
14.3
10.0
5.0
FY14
FY15
FY16
RoCE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
RoE (%)
Page 7
BEL has one of the soundest track records among large Indian public
sector enterprises. The company has delivered a topline and bottomline
CAGR of 10.5% and 17.2% over the past 15 years (FY00-15), with average
RoCEs and RoEs of 22.5% and 21.6%, respectively. The company is
characterised by consistent dividend payout of 20%, clean corporate
governance, efficient working capital management, adequate R&D spend,
ability to absorb latest technologies, timely execution of large projects,
strong cash flow generation and prudent capital allocation.
Despite the consistent history of BEL, the market has always valued the
stock at 13x (10 year average of two year forward earnings). We believe
this is because of the nature of the business in which BEL is engaged.
Lumpy orders, routine delays in decision making by armed forces,
bureaucratic inertia, sensitive technologies and a variety of other factors
like movement in policy reforms, corruption and capital market conditions
have always led market participants to view the business of BEL with
suspicion. Credible defence initiatives, a large upcoming opportunity and
sound balance sheet strength, accelerated order inflows and BELs
consistent performance over the past 10 years, give us reasonable
confidence on the robust prospects of the company. With moderate
capital expenditure of | 1500 crore over the next three years (FY17E-19E),
we believe BEL is a quality play and is on a strong footing. Accordingly,
we expect BEL to deliver sales and PAT CAGR of 19.1% and 5%
respectively, in FY16-18E. We value BEL at | 1560 (earlier target price of
| 1552) i.e. 25x P/E on standalone FY18E EPS of | 62.4. We maintain BUY
recommendation on the company.
Page 8
Company snapshot
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jul-17
Jan-17
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Key events
Date/Year
Dec-12
Event
BEL signs an MoU with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for cooperation on future Long Range Surface to Air Missile (LRSAM) Ship-defence Systems
Sep-14
BEL establishes a Joint Venture Company (JVC) with M/s. Thales Air Systems SA, France and M/s. Thales India Pvt. Ltd in Radar Business Area.
Nov-15
Feb-15
Ministry of Defence selects BEL - Rolta consortium as a Development Agency for the Battlefield Management System Project
Mar-15
Oct-15
BEL signs | 8000 crore IACCS (Integrated Air Command and Control System) deal with Indian Air Force
Mar-16
May-16
May-16
Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Name
Government of India
Life Insurance Corporation of India
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.
UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd.
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
Tata Asset Management Limited
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.
Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date
31-Mar-16
31-Mar-16
31-Mar-16
31-Mar-16
31-Mar-16
30-Apr-16
30-Apr-16
30-Apr-16
31-Mar-16
31-Jan-16
% O/S
0.75
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
Position (m)
180.04M
12.74M
4.15M
2.43M
1.82M
1.63M
1.51M
1.24M
1.10M
1.08M
(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
Capital Investment Trust Corporation
Harding Loevner LP
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Value
+3.46M
+3.47M
+2.95M
+0.97M
+0.86M
Shares
+0.19M
+0.17M
+0.14M
+0.05M
+0.05M
Sells
Investor name
Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Driehaus Capital Management, LLC
Capital International, Inc.
PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V.
Value
-4.60M
-3.01M
-1.44M
-1.18M
-1.07M
Shares
-0.25M
-0.16M
-0.10M
-0.06M
-0.05M
Page 9
| Crore
(| Crore)
Net Sales
Other operating income
Total Revenue
Other income
Total
FY15
6,675.5
167.1
6,842.6
477.9
7,320.6
FY16
7,154.1
141.1
7,295.2
532.2
7,827.3
FY17E
8,677.4
173.5
8,851.0
587.6
9,438.6
FY18E
10,146.6
202.9
10,349.5
581.0
10,930.6
3,780.6
1,263.5
655.3
5,699.3
3,790.8
1,301.8
741.1
5,833.7
4,859.3
1,605.3
911.1
7,375.8
5,682.1
1,927.9
1,065.4
8,675.3
1,143.3
1.4
1,619.9
154.0
1,465.9
299.4
1,166.5
1,167.2
1,461.4
4.5
1,989.1
168.9
1,820.2
455.3
1,364.9
1,357.7
1,475.2
6.0
2,056.8
196.3
1,860.5
474.4
1,386.1
1,386.1
1,674.2
7.5
2,247.7
223.3
2,024.5
526.4
1,498.1
1,498.1
48.6
56.6
57.8
62.4
EPS
FY16
1,357.7
168.9
4.5
1,531.1
(798.5)
74.2
152.9
(4.6)
(575.9)
1,590.5
385.1
1,975.6
FY17E
1,386.1
196.3
6.0
1,588.3
(197.0)
(1,744.2)
(197.5)
(12.7)
(2,151.3)
1,581.3
(191.8)
1,389.5
FY18E
1,498.1
223.3
7.5
1,728.9
(739.0)
(923.8)
(31.4)
(12.0)
(1,706.2)
1,642.3
164.2
1,806.5
1,885.4
2,930.8
826.5
1,829.2
(38.3)
(217.0)
(263.9)
(34.5)
(646.2)
(964.2)
(500.0)
(495.0)
(500.0)
(495.0)
(281.0)
(304.3)
(489.6)
(516.2)
(507.3)
(305.2)
(543.8)
(556.3)
1,317.1
4,564.4
5,881.5
1,450.4
5,881.5
7,332.0
26.3
7,332.0
7,358.3
777.9
7,358.3
8,136.2
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
48.6
245.1
328.5
9.7
0.2
56.6
305.5
363.9
17.0
0.3
57.8
306.6
399.0
17.6
0.3
62.4
339.0
437.6
18.9
0.3
17.1
17.5
20.4
19.0
17.0
16.0
16.5
14.8
14.8
19.6
68.4
15.5
22.0
242.4
14.5
19.9
83.7
14.3
19.6
87.7
19.7
24.4
3.3
0.9
4.2
3.6
14.4
20.9
2.9
0.8
3.9
3.3
14.5
20.5
2.4
0.9
3.2
3.0
12.3
19.0
2.0
1.0
2.7
2.7
3.4
1.7
1.0
5.2
1.9
1.0
3.2
1.9
1.0
3.5
1.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.6
0.9
0.5
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.6
| Crore
(| Crore)
Profit after Tax
Depreciation
Interest
Cash Flow before WC changes
Changes in inventory
Changes in debtors
Changes in loans & Advances
Changes in other current assets
Net Increase in Current Assets
Changes in creditors
Changes in provisions
Net Increase in Current Liabilities
Balance sheet
| Crore
(| Crore)
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Minority Interest
Other Non Current Liabilities
Total Debt
FY15
80.0
7,805.0
7,885.0
1.1
9.1
FY16
240.0
8,493.8
8,733.8
2.1
6.2
FY17E
240.0
9,337.0
9,577.0
7.1
250.0
FY18E
240.0
10,261.3
10,501.3
12.1
275.0
Total Liabilities
7,895.2
8,742.1
9,834.0
10,788.4
2,485.2
1,714.0
771.1
139.8
910.9
427.1
3,369.4
3,786.1
752.0
53.5
5,881.5
13,842.6
6,527.8
776.7
6,538.1
2,841.4
1,883.0
958.4
429.7
1,388.1
447.3
4,167.9
3,711.9
599.1
58.1
7,332.0
15,868.9
8,118.3
1,161.8
6,588.8
3,271.1
2,079.2
1,191.9
500.0
1,691.9
447.3
4,364.9
5,456.1
796.6
70.8
7,358.3
18,046.6
9,699.7
970.0
7,377.0
3,721.1
2,302.5
1,418.6
550.0
1,968.6
447.3
5,103.9
6,379.9
828.0
82.8
8,136.2
20,530.7
11,342.0
1,134.2
8,054.6
7,895.2
8,742.2
9,834.0
10,788.4
Gross Block
Acc: Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Non Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Total Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
(Year-end March)
Per Share Data
EPS
Cash per Share
BV
Dividend per share
Dvidend payout ratio
Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Creditors Turnover Ratio
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Key ratios
Page 10
| Crore
(| Crore)
Net Sales
Other Operating Income
Total Operating Income
Other Income
Total Revenue
FY15
6,895.3
197.3
7,092.6
506.7
7,599.4
FY16
7,382.7
165.8
7,548.5
533.5
8,082.0
FY17E
9,653.1
193.1
9,846.2
616.2
10,462.4
FY18E
11,294.1
237.2
11,531.3
625.7
12,157.0
3,934.7
1,281.0
702.3
5,918.0
3,916.4
1,322.5
768.7
6,007.6
5,405.7
1,756.9
1,013.6
8,176.2
6,381.2
2,089.4
1,174.6
9,645.2
1,174.6
2.7
1,678.7
166.2
1,512.5
316.2
1,196.3
(0.2)
1,197.2
1,541.0
6.2
2,068.3
199.6
1,868.7
475.0
1,393.7
(0.6)
1,387.1
1,670.0
8.0
2,278.2
226.6
2,051.6
533.4
1,518.2
1,518.2
1,886.1
10.0
2,501.8
255.8
2,246.0
584.0
1,662.0
1,662.0
49.9
57.8
63.3
69.3
EPS
FY16
1,387.1
199.6
6.2
1,592.9
(788.6)
64.6
157.1
(4.8)
(571.7)
1,557.8
392.1
1,949.9
FY17E
1,518.2
226.6
8.0
1,752.8
(547.7)
(2,209.8)
(263.5)
(18.1)
(3,039.1)
2,431.0
(119.9)
2,311.1
FY18E
1,662.0
255.8
10.0
1,927.9
(809.3)
(1,011.6)
(34.8)
(13.1)
(1,868.7)
1,798.4
179.8
1,978.2
1,995.1
2,971.1
1,024.8
2,037.3
(36.9)
(226.5)
(263.5)
(32.9)
(650.7)
(912.1)
(500.0)
(252.8)
(500.0)
(495.0)
(281.6)
(298.2)
(489.6)
(544.1)
(507.3)
(472.4)
(543.8)
(562.1)
1,433.4
4,604.6
6,038.0
1,514.9
6,038.0
7,552.9
299.6
7,552.9
7,852.5
980.3
7,852.5
8,832.8
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
49.9
251.6
338.2
9.7
0.2
57.8
314.7
374.4
17.0
0.3
63.3
327.2
415.3
17.6
0.3
69.3
368.0
460.5
18.9
0.3
16.6
16.9
20.4
18.4
17.0
15.4
16.4
14.4
14.7
19.1
57.8
15.4
21.4
174.8
15.2
21.0
99.0
15.0
20.6
105.7
19.3
23.8
3.3
0.8
4.1
3.5
13.7
20.5
2.9
0.8
3.9
3.2
12.5
18.7
2.2
1.0
2.9
2.9
10.6
17.1
1.8
1.0
2.5
2.6
2.7
1.8
1.1
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.6
2.0
1.1
4.0
1.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.6
0.9
0.5
1.0
0.6
1.0
0.6
| Crore
(| Crore)
Profit after Tax
Depreciation
Interest
Cash Flow before WC changes
Changes in inventory
Changes in debtors
Changes in loans & Advances
Changes in other current assets
Net Increase in Current Assets
Changes in creditors
Changes in provisions
Net Increase in Current Liabilities
Balance sheet
| Crore
(| Crore)
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
FY15
80.0
8,036.9
8,116.9
FY16
240.0
8,746.1
8,986.1
FY17E
240.0
9,727.2
9,967.2
FY18E
240.0
10,812.2
11,052.2
Minority Interest
Other Non Current Liabilities
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
6.1
1.1
226.0
8,350.0
4.8
2.2
206.0
9,199.0
4.8
7.2
278.6
10,257.8
4.8
12.2
303.6
11,372.8
Gross Block
Acc: Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
2,894.4
1,821.4
1,073.0
140.3
1,213.3
3,054.3
1,821.4
1,232.9
431.5
1,664.5
3,485.8
2,048.0
1,437.9
500.0
1,937.9
3,935.8
2,303.8
1,632.0
550.0
2,182.0
428.0
3,424.2
3,805.3
762.4
54.3
6,038.0
14,084.3
6,589.9
785.7
6,708.7
447.1
4,212.8
3,740.7
605.3
59.1
7,552.9
16,170.8
8,147.7
1,177.8
6,845.3
447.1
4,760.4
5,950.5
868.8
77.2
7,852.5
19,509.5
10,578.7
1,057.9
7,872.9
447.1
5,569.7
6,962.1
903.5
90.4
8,832.8
22,358.5
12,377.1
1,237.7
8,743.7
8,350.1
9,199.0
10,257.8
11,372.8
Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per Share Data
EPS
Cash per Share
BV
Dividend per share
Dvidend payout ratio
Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
Return Ratios
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios
EV / EBITDA
P/E
EV / Net Sales
Sales / Equity
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover
Debtors Turnover Ratio
Creditors Turnover Ratio
Solvency Ratios
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Page 11
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 12
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We, Chirag Shah, PGDBM and Sagar Gandhi, MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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It is confirmed that Chirag Shah, PGDBM and Sagar Gandhi, MBA research analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
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ICICI Securities has received an investment banking mandate from Government of India for disinvestment in Bharat Electronics Limited. This report is prepared based on publicly available information.
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