Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Inflation
Weights(%)
100.0
39.1
47.3
6.8
Jul-16
6.07
8.39
4.63
2.75
Aug-16
5.13
5.87
4.73
2.57
Sep-16
4.31
3.87
4.85
3.07
Jul-16
7.96
6.83
5.23
5.42
2.75
4.01
Aug-16
5.83
6.94
5.30
5.29
2.57
4.18
Sep-16
4.12
6.82
5.19
5.18
3.07
4.51
Components of CPI
Items
Food&bev.
Pan,tob& intox.
Cloth & Foot
Housing
Fuel & light
Misc.
Weights(%)
45.9
2.4
6.5
10.1
6.8
28.3
3.5
3.7
3.6
0
-4
-6
Jan-15
-0.9
Feb-15
-2.2
Mar-15 -2.3
Apr-15 -2.4
May-15
-2.2
Jun-15
-2.1
Jul-15 -4.0
Aug-15
-5.1
Sep-15-4.6
Oct-15 -3.7
Nov-15
-2.0
Dec-15
-1.1
Jan-16
-1.1
Feb-16
-0.9
Mar-16
-0.5
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
(%)
2
-2
CPI index has fallen from 6.07% in July and 5.13% in August 2016.
Continued fall in food inflation (particularly vegetables and pulses) led to
the deceleration
Food inflation cooled, clocking in 4.1% YoY versus prior 5.8% YoY.
Barring cereals and sugar, reduction in price pressures in this segment
remained broad based
The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation also declined to a threemonth low of 3.57% in September from 3.74% in the previous month as
food inflation fell sharply by 2.48%
0.8
1.2
1.6
Weights Jun-16
100.0
1.62
20.1
5.50
14.9
-3.62
65.0
1.17
CPI: Sharp fall in vegetables and pulses prices pull back headline inflation
Vegetables prices contracted for the first time in over a year at (-) 7.2%
YoY as against 1.0% YoY earlier. Pulses inflation fell below the 20% YoY
threshold for the first time in 16 months. Government measures (such as
increased MSP, creation of buffer stock and increased imports) to
address structural issues in pulses have led to relief in price pressures in
the segment. Normal monsoon and upbeat kharif sowing are expected
to lead to additional price easing in pulses.
Weights
Jun-16
100.0
45.9
6.8
10.1
6.5
28.3
100.0
20.1
14.9
65.0
1.17
2.09
0.49
-0.40
0.46
0.66
-0.74
-2.65
-1.12
0.33
0.00
-0.36
0.16
0.71
0.38
0.16
1.43
2.36
1.74
0.91
-0.23
-0.94
0.40
0.47
0.45
0.57
1.35
2.26
3.14
0.39
In line with CPI, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for September
dipped to levels of 3.57% versus 3.74% in August. However, WPI
inflation was sharply raised to 3.72% from provisional estimate of 3.55%
for the month of July
The WPI food inflation came down to 5.75%, from 8.23% over this
period. Vegetables, which fuelled inflation as recently as July, saw
decline in prices by almost 11%
Amid almost all-round fall in food inflation, fruits and milk acted
somewhat as outliers. Inflation in fruits saw an uptick to 14.10%, against
13.91%, while that in milk touched 3.71% from 3.40%. Even as food
inflation came down, inflation in fuels and manufactured products rose
Research Analyst
Sachin Jain
sachin.ja@icicisecurities.com
Vinav Kadel
vinav.kadel@icicisecurities.com
8.39
6.07
5.13
5.87
4.31
3.87
CPI
CFPI
Jul-16
Core CPI
Aug-16
Fuel
Sep-16
5.18
5.29
5.30
5.19
8.19
7.67
4.93
5.19
Housing
Aug-16
Sep-16
Education
Recreation and
amusement
Transport and
communication
1.25
4.25
3.97
4.67
4.52
Health
2.70
4.32
4.60
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Page 2
Apr-16
5.52
2.18
7.19
3.66
5.33
-0.64
0.70
38.30
0.61
9.87
4.24
6.50
8.30
5.52
5.33
4.59
4.38
4.88
5.25
2.39
4.79
5.68
4.77
May-16
5.27
2.43
7.74
3.33
4.85
-1.10
0.54
34.15
3.92
9.58
4.15
6.23
8.51
5.50
5.31
3.38
4.01
4.95
5.31
0.91
4.68
5.66
5.68
Month
Jun-16
6.29
2.51
8.23
3.40
5.13
1.74
4.98
34.21
11.18
9.80
4.30
5.89
8.04
5.56
5.37
3.03
4.26
4.85
5.21
1.82
4.49
5.54
5.73
Jul-16
7.96
3.88
6.57
4.13
4.96
3.53
14.06
27.53
21.91
9.04
4.25
5.63
6.83
5.23
5.42
2.75
4.01
4.62
4.54
1.06
4.44
5.14
7.30
Aug-16
5.83
4.11
5.85
4.36
5.03
4.31
1.02
21.94
24.89
8.83
4.32
5.60
6.94
5.30
5.29
2.57
4.18
4.60
4.52
1.25
4.25
5.19
8.19
WPI
Primary Articles
Fuel & Power
Manufactured Goods
Weights
100.0
20.12
14.91
64.97
Aug-15
-5.06
-4.21
-16.21
-1.99
Month
Jul-16
3.55
9.38
-1.00
1.82
Aug-16
3.74
7.47
1.62
2.42
Average
FY16
-2.49
0.31
-11.67
-1.10
Average
FY15
2.00
2.98
-0.95
2.42
Page 3
1.
2.
3.
4.
Primary Articles
Food Articles
Weights
20.1
14.3
Aug-15
-4.21
-1.02
Month
Jul-16
9.38
11.82
Aug-16
7.47
8.23
Average
FY16
0.31
3.42
Average
FY15
2.98
6.08
3.99
4.1
4.85
13.57
13.46
7.66
Rice
1.8
-3.89
4.08
4.76
-1.66
6.70
Wheat
1.1
2.09
6.90
7.27
3.67
-0.29
0.7
36.49
35.76
34.55
39.47
5.88
Pulses
3.8
-11.77
22.33
6.99
-1.31
5.35
Milk
3.2
2.08
3.24
3.40
3.28
9.97
2.4
3.30
7.49
8.75
2.01
2.37
0.6
4.3
8.78
-0.46
5.27
9.49
7.20
8.44
14.64
3.51
21.68
-0.55
Fibres
0.9
-9.09
25.90
24.55
-3.78
-10.20
Oil Seed
1.8
-2.20
5.29
6.74
2.88
3.10
1.4
1.5
8.71
-34.35
6.00
-14.28
3.64
-3.44
8.44
-29.92
0.98
-10.96
Month
Jul-16
-1.00
Aug-16
1.62
Average
FY16
-11.67
Average
FY15
-0.95
Spices
Non-Food Articles
Fuel Group
Weights
14.9
Aug-15
-16.21
Coal
2.1
0.05
0.68
0.68
0.05
-0.51
Mineral Oils
Controlled Fuel :
9.4
-24.90
-0.82
3.43
-18.30
-2.79
LPG
0.9
-5.32
-1.35
-1.85
-4.11
0.65
Kerosene
0.7
-9.03
1.82
3.66
-6.27
-6.80
4.7
-25.37
6.57
12.15
-16.28
2.49
Petrol
1.1
-13.82
-10.30
-8.65
-10.25
-5.44
0.3
-37.37
-8.93
-2.73
-34.22
-12.05
0.1
-45.09
-15.31
-13.96
-34.36
-13.38
Bitumen
0.2
-26.46
-26.46
-24.27
-28.82
-4.95
Furnace Oil
0.5
-44.66
-18.28
-9.30
-41.05
-14.81
Lubricants
0.2
5.15
0.00
0.00
2.11
4.73
3.5
5.85
-2.77
-2.77
3.74
5.88
Electricity
Average
Weights
65.0
10.0
55.0
1.8
7.3
0.6
2.0
0.8
12.0
2.6
Aug-15
-1.99
-2.11
-0.57
2.13
-2.64
4.36
3.00
-0.75
-1.88
2.75
Jul-16
1.82
10.19
-0.53
7.03
0.71
-0.51
1.89
0.83
-0.20
1.82
Aug-16
2.42
11.35
-0.22
7.77
1.28
1.86
1.55
0.48
0.00
2.05
FY16
-1.10
0.77
-1.49
2.86
-1.72
4.21
2.57
-0.13
-1.47
2.60
FY15
2.42
2.41
2.44
7.93
2.62
4.86
5.40
1.33
2.64
3.98
10.7
8.9
5.2
-7.50
0.30
1.10
-2.30
0.15
1.31
-1.49
0.15
1.60
-6.63
0.25
1.33
0.62
2.28
1.28
Month
Manufactured Goods
Food Products
Manufacturing Ex Food
Beverages & Tobacco
Textiles
Wood & Wood Products
Paper & Paper Products
Leather & Leather Products
Chemicals & Chemical Products
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Basic Metals
Machinery & Machine Tools
Transport, Equipment & Parts
Page 4
24
18
12
-5
-6
-10
-12
-15
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
-18
WPI (LHS)
Food Articles
Manufactured Goods(LHS)
Fuel Group
50
40
35
48.5
30
$/bbl.
45
35 7
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
25
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Dec-14
1.43
Jan-15
0.90
Feb-15
0.07
Mar-15
-0.38
Apr-15
-0.41
May-15 -0.57
-0.95
Jun-15
Jul-15 -1.39
Aug-15 -1.92
Sep-15 -1.93
Oct-15
-2.10
Nov-15 -1.98
Dec-15-2.09
Jan-16 -2.08
Feb-16 -1.51
Mar-16
-0.99
Apr-16
-0.53
May-16
-0.22
-0.24
Jun-16
0.00
Jul-16
0.54
Aug-16
Exhibit 11: Fuel group and mineral inflation have risen sharply
10.0
100.0
5.0
80.0
0.0
Jun-16
-25.0
-30.0
Aug-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
-20.0
Oct-14
-15.0
40.0
$/bl
60.0
-10.0
Aug-14
-5.0
20.0
0.0
Fuel group
Mineral Oils
Page 5
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 6
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Sachin Jain, CA, Research Analysts and Vinav Kadel, MBA, Research Analyst authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
Page 7