Keynes Sigue

Vigente
Keynes is Still Valid

Strategia | Mundo

Miguel Murillo
Asesor Planeamiento
y Control Financiero

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Antes de entrar al tema, conozcamos algo acerca de

este personaje, uno de los ms influyentes del siglo
XX, cuyas ideas tuvieron repercusin en las teoras y
polticas econmicas de la poca.
Keynes naci en Cambridge, Inglaterra, el 5 de junio
de 1883, en una familia acomodada y de notable
nivel cultural, que l absorbera desde pequeo y
que lo llevara, despus, a ser impulsor y benefactor
de la cultura.
Curs estudios en prestigiosas instituciones de Eton
y en Kings College de Cambridge, donde estudi
Matemticas, Teora de las Probabilidades y Economa.
En 1906 fue designado funcionario el Home Civil
Service y destinado a la oficina financiera de India.
En 1908 se dedic a la docencia y edit la revista
especializada en economa Economic Journal.
En 1916 inici su labor en el Estado Britnico como
Consejero del Ministerio de Hacienda. Tres aos despus
volvi a la docencia en la Universidad de Cambridge y
comenz a trabajar como asesor de empresas, aunque
continu asesorando al Gobierno ingls. Muri en
Sussex, Inglaterra, el 21 de abril de 1942.
Bertrand Russell dijo de Keynes: Es la mente ms
aguda y ms clara que jams conoc. Cuando discuta
con l, senta que mi vida penda de un hilo y
raramente terminaba sintindome algo muy diferente
a un estpido.
Su obra ms importante fue Teora general del empleo,
el inters y el dinero, publicado en 1936, en la que
present una teora basada en la nocin de demanda
agregada, mediante la cual explic la variacin general
de actividad econmica, como la observada durante la
Gran depresin de los aos treinta.
En esta obra, Keynes escribi sobre el empleo, la
teora monetaria y el ciclo del comercio, entre otros
temas. Sus teoras respecto al empleo se opona a
todo lo que los economistas clsicos haban enseado.

Keynes escribi sobre

el empleo, la teora
monetaria y el ciclo
del comercio, entre
otros temas. Sus teoras
respecto al empleo se
opona a todo lo que
los economistas clsicos
haban enseado.
"Keynes wrote on
employment, monetary
theory and the trade
cycle, among other topics.
His theories regarding
employment were opposed
to all that the classical
economists had taught."

he vagaries of the world economy in recent

years lead us to turn our gaze to John
Maynard Keynes and his revolutionary
economic theory that, when it appeared in
1936, became a challenge of the dominant
economic paradigm at that time.
Before entering the subject, we know something about
this person, one of the most influential of the twentieth
century, whose ideas impacted on economic theories and
policies of the time.
Keynes was born in Cambridge, England, on June 5, 1883,
into a wealthy and culturally notable family, which he
absorbed from childhood and that would later take him to
be a promoter and benefactor of culture.
He studied at prestigious institutions of Eton and King's
College, Cambridge, where he studied mathematics,
probability theory and economics.
In 1906, the Home Civil Service appointed him as an official
and sent him to the financial office of India. In 1908, he
devoted himself to teaching and edited the specialized
Economic Journal.

Strategia | Mundo

os vaivenes de la economa mundial en

los ltimos aos, nos llevan a voltear la
mirada hacia John Maynard Keynes y su
revolucionaria teora econmica, la cual,
cuando apareci en 1936, se convirti en
un desafo del paradigma econmico que dominaba
entonces.

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Strategia | Mundo

Las teoras de Keynes fueron tan

influyentes, aun siendo combatidas, que hoy todo un subcampo
de la macroeconoma llamada Economa Keynesiana,
contina desarrollando y
discutiendo sus teoras y
aplicaciones.

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La Poltica Econmica
Keynesiana
La base de la poltica
econmica Keynesiana se
apoya en la consideracin de
que la variable fundamental que
mueve la actividad econmica, es
lo que l identifica como la demanda
global (Dg), que est formada por la demanda
de bienes de consumo de las familias (C) ms la
demanda de bienes de inversin de las empresas
(I), ms la demanda del sector pblico, a
travs del gasto pblico (G) y por la demanda
de los mercados Internacionales, a travs de las
exportaciones (Ex).
Ello expresado en una sencilla frmula resultara as:
Dg = C + I + G + Ex
Keynes plante en su Teora General cmo con
esta frmula elemental se puede combatir los dos
problemas fundamentales de la economa:
- El desempleo, y
- La inflacin
El Desempleo
Keynes anot que si el desempleo se produce por
una insuficiencia de la demanda global, se debe subir
la demanda global.
Y cmo se puede subir la demanda global?
- Estimulando el consumo.
- Bajando los impuestos directos (con lo cual las
familias tienen ms que consumir).
- Bajando los tipos de inters (r) (con lo cual se baja el
costo del dinero y los empresarios invierten ms).
- Aumentando el gasto pblico a travs de la
administracin pblica y los presupuestos
generales del Estado, para que se hagan ms
escuelas, hospitales, etc.
- Fomentando las exportaciones mediante una
disminucin del tipo de cambio.

In 1916, he began work in the British

government as Counsel of the
Ministry of Finance. Three years
later, he returned to teaching at
the University of Cambridge
and began working as a
business consultant, although
he continued to advise the
British government.
He died in Sussex, England,
on April 21, 1942.
Bertrand Russell said about Keynes:
"He is the sharpest and clearest mind
I ever met. When I argued with him, I felt
my life was hanging by a thread and I rarely ended
up feeling something very different from stupid."
His most important work was The General Theory of
Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936,
in which he presented a theory based on the notion of
aggregate demand, by which he explained the overall change
in economic activity as observed during the great depression
of the 1930s.
In this work, Keynes wrote on employment, monetary
theory and the trade cycle, among other topics. His theories
regarding employment were opposed to all that the classical
economists had taught.
Keynes's theories were so influential, although being
challenged, that today a whole subfield of Macroeconomics
called Keynesian economics continues developing and
discussing his theories and applications.
Keynesian Economic Policy
Keynesian economic policy is based on the consideration
that the fundamental variable that drives economic activity
is what he identifies as global demand (Dg), which is formed
by the "demand for consumer goods" by families (C) plus
the "demand for investment goods by companies" (I) plus
"public sector demand" through public spending (G) and the
"demand of international markets" through exports (Ex).
Expressed in a simple formula, this would be as follows:
Dg = C + I + G + Ex
Keynes proposed in his General Theory how, using this
elemental formula, one can fight the two fundamental
problems of the economy:

La Inflacin
Y para combatir la inflacin?
Hay que hacer lo contrario. Si la inflacin se debe a
que la demanda es excesiva, y a que los precios suben
porque sube la demanda, lo que hay que hacer es
articular medidas para controlar la demanda global.

- Unemployment and
- Inflantion

Y para bajar la demanda global hay que:

- Bajar el consumo. Cmo hacerlo? Subiendo los
impuestos.
- Bajar la inversin. Cmo? Subiendo el tipo de
inters.
- Disminuir el gasto pblico.
- Promover el tipo de cambio.

And how can you raise global demand?

- Stimulating consumption.
- Lowering direct taxes (with which families have more for
consumption).
- Lowering interest rates (r) (with which the cost of money is
lowered and entrepreneurs
invest more).

Unemployment
Keynes noted that if unemployment is caused by insufficient
global demand, global demand must rise.

La Crisis Petrolera de 1973

Estas recetas keynesianas funcionaron perfectamente
desde 1945 hasta 1973, ao en que el precio del
petrleo aument de manera abismal (el petrleo
rondaba los 2 dlares el barril y en 1973
aument a ms de 30 dlares) porque los
pases exportadores de petrleo decidieron
subir los precios y suministrar poco
petrleo, con lo que el dlar se devalu.
A consecuencia de estos hechos,
por primera vez en la historia
econmica moderna, coinciden
desempleo e inflacin, que no haba
contemplado Keynes.
Cmo fue posible que coexistieran
desempleo e inflacin?
Porque la inflacin que apareci en 1973
no es una inflacin de demanda, como la
prevista por Keynes, sino una inflacin de
costos. Los precios suben porque suben
los costos de la energa, los costos del
petrleo. Y esos costos que llevaron el precio
del barril de petrleo de dos dlares a ms
de 35 dlares, hicieron que sean los costos los
que van tirando de los precios, y que, incluso con
una situacin de demanda insuficiente, de recesin
econmica, los precios sigan subiendo. Y se transform
la inflacin de demanda en una inflacin de costos.
Keynes no da respuesta sobre cmo combatir la
inflacin de costos? Adems, coexisten los problemas
de desempleo e inflacin. Keynes qued arrinconado.

Strategia | Mundo

En conclusin, Keynes dijo:

El desempleo y la inflacin no pueden coexistir

187

Entonces, las polticas Keynesianas son sustituidas por

polticas liberales, fundamentalmente las de Milton
Friedman. Las denominadas polticas de oferta, que
consideraron que el presupuesto pblico debe ser
neutral entre el ingreso y gasto pblico. Que solo debe
manejar los tipos de inters para manejar la economa.
Y que el nfasis debe pasar de lo macroeconmico a
lo microeconmico. Es decir, si se va a combatir los
costos, los costos de produccin se combaten a nivel
de empresa. Hay que combatir la subida de costos
salariales, la subida de costos de produccin a travs
de la innovacin, de la productividad, de la mejora de la
competitividad, de la calidad, del servicio postventa, etc.
Milton Friedman se convirti en referente de la
poltica econmica, y Keynes qued arrumado.

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El Retorno
El ao 2008 Keynes volvi a tener vigencia, porque la
nueva situacin que se gener hizo que la situacin
del desempleo no coexistiera con la situacin
inflacionaria, sino con una situacin deflacionaria.

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Hoy existe desempleo con deflacin. Entonces,

como ambas circunstancias son la base de problemas
actuales, Keynes tiene la respuesta para combatir
simultneamente ambos problemas: estimular la
demanda global.
Ello implica:
- Bajar impuestos
- Bajar tipos de inters
- Aumentar el gasto pblico, y
- Bajar el tipo de cambio para hacer ms
competitivas las exportaciones.
La Unin Europea
En la situacin actual, todos los pases de la Unin
Europea ya no pueden utilizar los instrumentos de
poltica monetaria que utilizaba Keynes, porque ya no
tienen control ni sobre los tipos de inters, ni sobre
el tipo de cambio.
Por lo tanto, los nicos instrumentos de que
disponen esos pases son los instrumentos fiscales:
Impuestos y gasto pblico, ya que estn inmersos
en la aplicacin de la moneda nica: el euro, con un
pacto de estabilidad firmado.
Esta situacin obliga a esos pases a disciplinar el gasto
pblico y la deuda pblica, por lo que no pueden
utilizar polticas expansivas indefinidamente.

- Increasing public spending through the public

administration and the general state budgets, so that
more schools, hospitals, etc. are built, and
- Encouraging exports through a lowering of the
exchange rate.
Inflation
And to fight inflation?
You should do the opposite. If inflation is because the
demand is excessive, and prices rise because demand goes
up, what you should do is articulate measures to control
global demand.
And to lower global demand, you should:
- Lower consumption. How to do it? Raising taxes.
- Lower investment. How? Raising the interest rate.
- Reduce public spending, and
- Increase the exchange rate.
In conclusion, Keynes said:
Unemployment and inflation cannot co-exist
The 1973 Petroleum Crisis
These Keynesian recipes worked perfectly from 1945
to 1973, the year when oil prices rose abysmally (oil
was about $2 a barrel and in 1973 increased to more
than $30) because the oil-exporting countries decided
to raise prices and provide little oil, with which the
dollar devalued.
As a result of this, for the first time in modern economic
history, unemployment and inflation coincided, which
Keynes had not contemplated.
How was it possible that unemployment and inflation coexisted?
Because inflation that appeared in 1973 is not demandpull inflation, as envisaged by Keynes, but cost-push
inflation. Prices rise because the costs of energy and oil
rise. And those costs that brought the price of a barrel of
oil from $2 to over $35, made costs push prices, and that
even with a situation of insufficient demand and economic
recession, prices continue to rise. And demand inflation
was transformed into cost inflation.
Keynes does not answer how to combat cost inflation. In
addition, problems of unemployment and inflation coexist.
Keynes was cornered.
Keynesian policies are then replaced by liberal policies,
mainly those of Milton Friedman. Called supply-side
policies, which considered that the public budget
should be neutral between public income and spending.

Un nudo difcil de desatar para varios pases de la UE,

los que, en vez de poder aplicar polticas expansivas,
estn obligados a utilizar polticas restrictivas.

You should only change interest rates to manage the

economy. And that emphasis should move from the
macro-economics to the micro-economics. That is, if
you are going to combat costs, production costs are
fought at the company level. You must fight rising
labor costs, rising production costs through innovation,
productivity, improving competitiveness, quality, postsales service, etc.
Milton Friedman became the benchmark for economic
policy, and Keynes was stowed away.
The Return
Keynes returned to become valid in 2008, because the
new situation that was generated made the unemployment
situation not coexist with the inflationary situation, but with
a deflationary situation.
Today there is unemployment with deflation. So, as both
circumstances are the basis of current problems, Keynes
has the answer to combat both problems simultaneously:
stimulate global demand.
This implies:
- Lower taxes
- Lower interest rates
- Increase public spending, and
- Lower the exchange rate to make exports more
competitive.
The European Union
In the current situation, all the countries of the European
Union can no longer use monetary policy instruments used
by Keynes because they have no control over interest rates
or the exchange rate.
Thus, the only tools available to these countries are fiscal
instruments: taxes and government spending, since they are
involved in the implementation of the single currency, the
euro, with a signed stability pact.
This situation forces these countries to discipline public
spending and public debt because they cannot use
expansionary policies indefinitely.
And because the European Union pressures countries
to raise taxes and lower public spending, it immediately
generates more unemployment.
A difficult knot to untie for several countries in the EU that,
instead of being able to apply expansionary policies, are
required to use restrictive policies.

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Y como la Unin Europea presiona a los pases

a subir los impuestos y a bajar el gasto pblico,
inmediatamente se va generando ms desempleo.

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