Our Rapidly Changing World

Our world is entering into a period of rapid and unprecedented change.

Although it is a truism that the only constant is change, there is a quantum
difference in the degree and scope of that constant in today’s highly
interconnected environment. It is not my intent to detail all of the causative
factors in this trend, but rather to anticipate, in a limited way, how the
environmental, social, and politico-military systems are and likely will
continue to respond to these factors. In broad terms, regionalization is one
of those major responses. I will attempt to lay out some of the broad, though
not seminal, causative factors in this trend, different organizational methods
anticipated to be adopted within a regional context, and lastly to anticipate
some of the potential impacts of these responses.

The threats to the current nation-state system’s continued viability are

numerous and growing. This growth is occurring concurrently with a
contraction in the nation-state’s legitimacy as an organizing principle in
international politics due to its seeming inability to deal with the numerous
challenges it faces. Many would support this conclusion yet quickly make
the follow-on statement that, although it may be imperfect, there is nothing
to replace it. Such viewpoints take a rather short view of history in drawing
this conclusion as the nation-state system is a rather recent phenomenon. It
takes only a slightly extended view to survey additional forms of politico-
military, economic, and social organization. The society of man has been on
a constantly changing balance beam which alternates between different
forms of centralization and decentralization of its various organizational
systems as far as recorded history. The current trend, due to the myriad
threats presented, is towards regionalization of the current nation-state
system concurrently with a continued centralization in that portion of its
social system dealing with laws and norms. These changes are a direct
result of the various threats.

In regards to these threats, it is important to note their key differences

with those of the past. First, they are common to many, if not all, nation-
states. Second, they are coincident in their occurrence. Third, they require a
collective response, the costs for unilateral action being simply too great of a
burden for one to tackle alone without experiencing, perhaps precipitously
and catastrophically, national overstretch of resources and capabilities.
Lastly, the responses required are long term responses requiring collective,
multilateral partnerships which will, more and more, become of the very
committed rather than simply the willing as the character of these threats
becomes more evident. These threats include those related to the
environment, resource access, criminality, and disease control.

The world we live in is, to state the obvious, finite. It seems important to
highlight these limits due to our actions and lack of planning which seem to
belie an underlying weak grasp of this fact. The finite nature of these
resources impacts us in many ways, but one whose effects are very difficult
both to predict as well as to respond to is the significant environmental
change being brought about by the impact of man’s activities. That the
planet is warming is a fact admitted by all sides in the debate. It is slowly
becoming apparent to more and more that man’s activities are a significant
causative agent in this condition. The impacts of this warming trend are also
becoming increasingly apparent by the year in terms of sea level rise, in
some cases coupled by adjacent city subsidence as most recently evidenced
in New Orleans, the loss of coastal riverine and estuarial environments, and
the attendant economic impacts to our coastal communities, as well as in
less predictable ways such as changing weather patterns. Almost 50% of the
great lung of the North American continent, the boreal forests of Canada, are
under tenure to large scale forestry operations, this at a time of concern for
the impact of CO2 emissions on the warming trend.1 The impacts of these
changes as well as other areas, regardless of your political persuasion, are
larger than national politics or, for that matter, any one country. They
require, if not global, at least regional consensus in measures to deal with the
issues.

The ability of people to communicate, collaborate, and produce goods

and services for others has been expanded incredibly by globalization, which
I will simply term the interconnection of everything. Unfortunately, the
capability to effect good comes with a price. Those who do not have good
intentions share with us these same capabilities. Trans-border criminal
collaborative capabilities have increased exponentially along with the
capabilities to effect good.2 The ubiquity of technological access and know
how due to the information revolution has really only begun. The
democratization of information has come concurrently with this large threat

1
ForestEthics (2005). Retrieved on 5 Oct 2005 from the World WideWeb: http://www.forestethics.org
2
For a discussion on the spread and impacts of transnational criminal activity, see “Gangs, Hooligans, and
Anarchists – The Vanguard of Netwar In The Streets,” John P. Sullivan,
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1382/MR1382.ch4.pdf
– the threat from those with equal access who would use that information for
personal gain without thought on the impacts on others. The pace of
technological innovation and access to that technology to anyone with either
the time to research it or the money to buy it means that transnational
criminality and collective actions to deal with it will be a constant theme at
least in our lifetimes. The access to devastatingly lethal means which could
impact or hold hostage large populations make this threat not only
transnational but also of vital importance to us all.

As previously stated, we live on a finite physical planet with finite

resources. The gas in your car’s gas tank is approximately 70 million years
old. We are running out of some of those resources upon which we have
become dependant to provide us with the means we need to live and to live
well. At the same time, a significant portion of the planet’s population is
“coming on line” as users of those same finite resources. World daily oil
consumption has now reached 84 mbd, with oil production in decline in 33
of the 48 largest oil producing countries, this concurrent with rapidly rising
demand.3 Unfortunately, focused national efforts have started no where to
ensure a stable transition to alternative sources of energy. Also
unfortunately, we have now waited too long to ensure a smooth transition.
Competition for scarce resources, always an issue, will be a continual theme
in international politics. This situation, as well, is trans-national requiring
multilateral solutions.

The confluence of the above factors with the ease of population

movements afforded by modern technology and commerce compound the
threats of disease containment. The plagues of children’s nursery rhymes
are unfortunately likely to reoccur, calling for new ways to socialize the
healing and learning process. Evidence of this can be seen, thanks to
modern medical science, through the genetic tracking of disease strains from
their points of origin across the globe. More and more, both governmental
and private organizations are coming to realize the national security
implications of globalization on the spread of infectious diseases, both those
we are aware of as well as the 99% of world microbes that remain
unidentified.4 Coupled with the threats from criminality and intentional
population infection or its threat, terms such as apocalyptic are not un-called

3
Chevron (2005). Retrieved on 29 Sept 2005 from the World Wide Web:
http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/Alternatives
4
Garrett, Laurie. Retrieved on 29 Sept 2005 from the World Wide Web:
http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/biology/units/infect/experts/garrett.html
for. The current social, politico-military, and economic organizations exist
concurrently with these threats. The evolution to new systems of
organization will be gradual, resisted by culture, tradition, and social norms
perpetuated over generations. As well, many of the threats detailed above
will be remotely relevant, or at least apparently so, to those far removed
from their point of origin. This is not to say that the global threats are less
real, but only that they are apparently localized and distant to many due to
the difficulty, and in many cases impossibility, of seeing the linkages which
can quickly make distant threats all too proximate. Because of this fact and
the real, proximate, and significant regional impacts, regional solutions will
be the norm and increasingly taken. Responses to these threats will cross the
politico-military, social, and economic organizational spheres.

Politico-Military

The threats we are facing will result in closer collaborations, and in many
cases a lack of distinction due to merger, of the political and military
organizational structures. This will occur for two primary reasons. First, the
sheer speed of impact, complexity of the issues, diversity of factors, and
required responses to deal with the threats will increasingly require a multi-
functional approach to deal with both the immediate threats as well as their
causes. Second, the normative standard of civilian control of military power
is being strengthened rather than lessened. This, coupled with the factors
first noted, require a much greater degree of integration between political
and military, as well as law enforcement organizations to ensure coordinated
and synchronized actions. Although perhaps an imaginative stretch due to
its contrast with our current government structure, a transition from Regional
Combatant Commands to Regional Command Authorities with a truly
integrated politico-military structure is not perhaps as radical as it sounds or,
for that matter, a distant possibility. As extensions principally of executive
authority, it is also likely, if these RCAs occur, that congressional liaison
functions will also expand to ensure legislative oversight, and some level of
control, of such organizations. The same speed and complexity before
mentioned will cause the fused organizations to decentralize within the
current national structures as well as to connect trans-nationally within their
respective regions. All of this will be supported and enabled by quantum
capability leaps both in IT and collaborative technologies as well as their
application.
 Social

This same IT growth in capability and use will likewise impact the social
realm. Computer social networking does not decrease social interaction in
local community; rather it expands the concept of community, making it less
defined solely by geography and more by shared interests.5 Networked
communities will mobilize across traditional boundaries, requiring enhanced
governmental capabilities to respond to fluid, rapidly emerging social
demands. Such social swarming on niche issues will require a
corresponding fluidity in government response, especially in the realm of the
info-sphere where truth projection or mis-information inform such reactions.

The rapid rise in gated communities, whether they be a lifestyle, prestige,

or security choice is an unfortunate development in our societies; however,
the trend towards the many but separate and walled off communities rather
than those characterized by an open and inclusive commons is likely to
continue. The causative factors are too numerous to detail, but the trend that
we are and will continue to form more and more physical or virtual niche
“communities of interest" appears persistent.

Economic

Regionalization internationally will continue as competition for scarce

resources continues and regional communities with some religious, cultural,
political, or societal affiliation or shared consensus band together to survive
and thrive against the myriad threats to their pursuit of a good life for
themselves and their own. A large part of this pursuit is obviously
economic. As Benjamin Franklin once so aptly put it, “It’s hard to make an
empty sack stand upright,” and regional participants will increasingly
demand and obtain the freedom which accrues from economic emancipation
rather than simply political democratization. The equation of liberal
economic policy with democratic development is often not obvious to those
countries exposed to the social impacts of radical and rapid economic
restructuring. Spheres of economic union and influence will continue to
form regionally, such as the European Union, the Association of South East
Asian States, the various and sundry economic arrangements on the African
continent such as ECOWAS and IGAD, and Western Hemisphere
5
Wellman, Barry, “Little Boxes, Glocalization, and Networked Individualism,” retrieved on 4 October
2005 from the World Wide Web:
http://www.chas.utoronto.ca/~wellman/publications/littleboxes/littlebox.PDF
arrangements such as the Free Trade Area of North America and Mercosur.
These economic blocks will evolve into, and in concert with, regional
politico-military cooperative structures; however, the bounds of these
structures, as well as the degree of cooperation between them, will be
defined more by the community of shared interests rather than the influence
of a singular regional power as the issues become less manageable
unilaterally.

Impacts

Increased political/military cooperation and regionalization will enhance

capabilities to both shape as well react to regional issues. Concurrently, the
complexity of those issues and the speed of impact which drive such
organization will decrease capabilities to centrally command national
responses. Authorities will be increasingly decentralized requiring a high
degree of training, expertise, and professionalism of regional actors. The
oversight requirement to vet such authorities, if not effective, could result in
rapid, long term negative impacts. If effectively implemented, however,
they will not only increase the effectiveness of coordinated government
action but also, and in consequence, increase the legitimacy of the nation
state system. The social changes noted tend to de-couple the concepts of
community consensus and national consensus. The rapidity with which
issues arise from the milieu of 0’s and 1’s floating in cyberspace will
increasingly require integrated information systems to inform government
responses as well as to strengthen that sense of national community which
accrues through effective government policy and action. Economically, an
inclusive regionalization requires politically difficult choices for national
economies and their at risk groups. However, a disregard of the trends
towards exclusive arrangements and retrenchment from democratic reform
in some areas will forfeit national opportunities and invite international
opportunism and influence.

Summary

The recurrent historical patterns of centralization and decentralization are

difficult to understand as they occur on so many levels. While we continue
down the path towards a centralization of normative standards globally in
terms of commitments to democratic systems of government and respect for
basic human rights we are concurrently tending towards decentralization of
power from the nation-state both outwardly to regional associations and
inwardly to empowered niche communities. It is also difficult to predict the
future impacts of such change, except to note that workable solutions must
be rapidly sought in the near term to answer the numerous threats that we
face. As in most other human endeavors, dramatic change will probably
require some individual or series of dramatic realization of the impacts of
these threats. Some incremental steps along the trends outlined are already
occurring although many are transparent to those not familiar with the
national political and military organizations. These changes are both
necessary as well as in consequence of the factors outlined. However, there
are many perils in this evolution that we should carefully consider as this
evolution continues. What are the legal issues which should be addressed?
How quickly do they need to be addressed? What are their priorities? What
precedents are we setting which, had we been more circumspect and careful,
we would all agree should have been subject to greater debate? Some of
these questions are beginning to be asked, although national debate is still
lacking, and some are being worked out as a practical matter both in the field
and in the courts (e.g., Hamdi, Paddilla, Hamdan cases). The question is,
can we afford the luxury of waiting for some precipitating event of large
impact? We are in a period of both great and rapid change due to the threats
we face. It is imperative in this time that we seek out people of wisdom and
understanding to guide our discussions and progression through this period.
Otherwise, we may face a future both difficult to imagine due to the rapidity
and degree of change as well as undesirable in terms of our real good.