Stat1600

Two Proportions Examples

The table below contains counts of mouth cancer for smokers and non-smokers from a medical center.

Cancer
smokers
Non-smokers

YES
459
9

NO
11
321

1. Estimate the difference in proportions of those who had cancer (YES).

Answer: 0.949
Reason/calculations:
Denote p1 the proportion of those who had the mouth cancer among smokers. Denote likewise
p2 for non-smokers. Then X = 459, n1 = 459 + 11 = 470; Y = 9, n2 = 9 + 321 = 330.
So,
459
= 0.976
470
9
p2 =
= 0.027
330
p1 p2 = 0.976 0.027 = 0.949.
p1 =

2. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions of those who had cancer (YES).
Does the interval exclude 0? Is the difference statistically significant?
ANSWER: The interval does excludes 0.
Hence, the difference is statistically significant
CALCULATION/REASON: (show your work)
From part (a), we can calculate the standard error of the estimated difference in proportions:
r
.976 (1 .976) .027 (1 .027)
SE(
p1 p2 ) =
+
= .00005 + .00008 = .011
470
330
Hence the margin of error is M E = 1.96 .011 = .022. Consequently, we can get a 95%
c.i. for p1 p2 :
(.949 .022, .949 + .022) = (0.927, 0.971)
which excludes 0. Therefore, the proportions differ and it appears that the proportion of those
who had mouth cancer for smokers is greater than those for non-smokers.
Note that the interpretation of this 95% confidence interval: we are 95% confident that the
difference in proportions (percentages) is in between 0.927 (92.7%) and and 0.971(97.1%).
3. Estimate the relative risk (i.e., risk ratio) of those who had cancer (YES). Interpret your answer in
words
d = 36.15
ANSWER: RR
1

CALCULATION/REASON: (show your work)

d =
RR

p1
0.976
=
= 36.15
p2
0.027

Based upon the estimated risk ratio, smokers are about 36 times as likey as non-smokers to
have mouth cancer.
4. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the risk ratio of those who had cancer (YES). Does the
interval exclude 1? Is the risk ratio statistically significant?
ANSWER: The risk ratio is statistically significant.
CALCULATION/REASON: (show your work)
The standard error for estimated log-risk ratio is
r
1
1
1
1
d
SE(ln(RR)) =
+

= 0.3288
459 9 470 330
and hence the margin of error is M E = 1.96 0.3288 = 0.6444.
d = ln(36.15) = 3.5877) is then
95% c.i. for ln(RR) (note: ln(RR)
d 0.6444 = (3.5877 0.6444, 3.5877 + 0.6444) = (2.9433, 4.2321).
ln(RR)
It follows that 95% c.i. for RR is
(e2.9433 , e4.2321 ) (19, 69)
which excludes 1 and hence the risk ratio is statistically significant. We are 95% confident
that the risk of having mouth cancer for smokers is between 19 times and 69 times as large as
that for non-smokers.
5. Estimate the odds ratio of those who had cancer (YES). Interpret your answer in words
d = 1488.3
ANSWER: OR
CALCULATION/REASON: (show your work)

d =
OR

d1
odds
=
d2
odds

459
11
9
321

459 321
= 1488.3
11 9

Based upon the estimated odds ratio, the odds that smokers have mouth cancer is about 1,488
times as large as that of non-smokers.
6. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the odds ratio of those who had cancer (YES). Does the

interval exclude 1? Is the odds ratio statistically significant?

ANSWER: The odds ratio is statistically significant.
CALCULATION/REASON: (show your work)
The standard error for estimated log-odds ratio is
r
1
1
1
1
d =
SE(ln(OR))
+
+ +
= 0.455
459 11 9 321
and hence the margin of error is M E = 1.96 0.455 = 0.8918.
d = ln(1488.3) = 7.3054) is then
95% c.i. for ln(OR) (note: ln(OR)
d 0.8918 = (7.3054 0.8918, 7.3054 + 0.8918) = (6.4136, 8.1972).
ln(OR)
It follows that 95% c.i. for OR is
(e6.4136 , e8.1972 ) (610, 3631)
which excludes 1 and hence the odds ratio is statistically significant. We are 95% confident
that the odds of having mouth cancer for smokers is between 610 times and 3,631 times as
large as that for non-smokers.

Formulas
Notation: Note that we are dealing with proportions. They are concerning success (= observing an event
of interest). There are two groups under comparison, called them group 1 and group 2. So, for examples,
successes1 = number of successes in group 1
f ailures2 = number of failures in group 2
size1 = sample size for group 1 = successes1 + f ailures1

prop2 = proportion of successes for group 2 =

s
SE1 =

prop1 (1 prop1 )
size1

V2 = variance of proportion for group 2 = SE22 =

Risk ratio (RR):

successes1
size1
successes2
size2

d = prop1 =
RR
prop2
Odds:
odds =

successes2
size2

prop2 (1 prop2 )
size2

successes1 size2
successes2 size1

prob. of success
and is estimated by
prob. of failure

d =
odds

prop.
d
successes
=
1 prop.
d
f ailures

Odds ratio (OR):

d
d = odds1 =
OR
d2
odds

successes1
f ailures1
successes2
f ailures2

successes1 f ailures2
successes2 f ailures1

Difference in proportions.
1. Calculate the estimate of difference: d = prop1 prop2 .
2. Calculate V1 and V2 .
3. Calculate the SE = standard error of difference:
SE =

p
V1 + V2

4. Calculate the ME = margin of error:

M E = 1.96 SE
4

5. Calculate the 95% confidence interval (c.i.): (d M E, d + M E)

6. Significance of the difference:
(a) if the interval excludes zero (i.e., two ends of the c.i. are of the same sign) then the difference is
statistically significant = proportions differ
(b) if the interval includes zero (i.e., two ends of the c.i. are of opposite signs) then the difference is
insignificant = there is no difference
7. Interpretation: we are 95% confident that the true difference in population proportions is in between
LB = d M E and U B = d + M E.

Risk ratio.
1. Calculate the risk ratio:
RR =

prop1
prop2

and then calculate its natural logarithm ln(RR).

2. Calculate the standard error for log-risk ratio:
r
1
1
1
1
SE(ln(RR)) =
+

successes1 successes2 size1 size2

3. Calculate the margin of error for log-risk ratio:
M E = 1.96 SE(ln(RR))
4. Calculate the 95% c.i. for log-risk ratio: (ln(RR) M E, ln(RR) + M E)
5. Calculate the 95% c.i. for risk ratio, RR:
(eln(RR)M E , eln(RR)+M E )
6. Significance of RR:
(a) if the last confidence interval above excludes 1 (both ends are greater than 1; or both ends are
less than 1) then the RR is statistically significant
(b) if the last confidence interval above includes 1 (lower end is below 1 and upper end is above 1)
then the RR is insignificant
7. Interpretation: we are 95% confident that the RR is in between the two ends.

Odds ratio.
1. Calculate the odds ratio:
OR =

successes1 f ailures2
successes2 f ailures1

and then calculate its natural logarithm ln(OR).

5

2. Calculate the standard error for log-odds ratio:

r
1
1
1
1
SE(ln(OR)) =
+
+
+
successes1 f ailures1 successes2 f ailures2
3. Calculate the margin of error for log-odds ratio:
M E = 1.96 SE(ln(OR))
4. Calculate the 95% c.i. for log-odds ratio: (ln(OR) M E, ln(OR) + M E)
5. Calculate the 95% c.i. for odds ratio, OR:
(eln(OR)M E , eln(OR)+M E )
6. Significance of OR:
(a) if the last confidence interval above excludes 1 (both ends are greater than 1; or both ends are
less than 1) then the OR is statistically significant
(b) if the last confidence interval above includes 1 (lower end is below 1 and upper end is above 1)
then the OR is insignificant
7. Interpretation: we are 95% confident that the OR is in between the two ends.