06/2012

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Study
In-depth knowledge for decision makers
High volatility on stock markets: MSCI emerging market index
with significant variations (market capitalization, USD billion)
8,000

7,200

6,600

5,200

3,500
2006

2008

2009

2011

2012

Scenario planning how to find the right strategy at the right time in emerging markets

global topics
8 billion

Emerging markets promise substantial new business

opportunities.But they require management to navigate
increasingly volatile markets that greatly complicate
economicforecasting. To help executives make more accurate
strategic decisions, this publication describes a very
successfulandversatile strategic scenario planning tool.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Scenarios planning can improve the forecasting of company-relevant

trends in highly volatile markets like the automotive industry.

Study 3

global topics
8 billion
Scenario planning how to find the right strategy
at the right time in emerging markets

Introduction

p4

Guidance in uncertain times

Scenario planning step by step

p8

Conclusion

p 20

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

introduction

Highly sensitive, linked and volatile emerging markets

complicate forecasting considerably

Study 5

"In emerging markets, volatility is the new normality.

We cannot look more than three years ahead in these countries."
Siegfried Gnlen, CEO of Hansgrohe, a leading German
sanitary and fittings company

Signs of more volatility are everywhere. The stock markets of

emerging countries are one good example. Over the last five years,
forinstance, the Shanghai Composite moved between 1,500 and
6,000 points, and EGX, Egypt's leading share price index, swung
between 12,000 and 5,000 points. During this same period, oil
prices fluctuated from USD 40 to 140 a barrel a range exceeding
250%. Other commodities, such as raw materials from emerging
markets and the developing world, also show large price
swings.For example, aluminum prices over the same five years
ranged between USD 1,400 and 3,300 a ton, a difference of
morethan 100%.
Volatility is found not only in the economic sphere, but in politics
as well. A prime example here is the Arab world. Since the
ArabSpring began in January 2011, one country after the next has
experienced some degree of upheaval. Foreign companies are
uncertain about the consequences for their Middle East business
and investments, which recently totaled USD 15 billion annually.
f1 Given this volatility, managers find it increasingly difficult to

anticipate how changes and trends could impact their business.

Traditional foreign investment planning cycles of ten years or
more are no longer feasible. Plans must be reviewed and revised
atmuch shorter intervals.

What are successful companies

doing differently?
f2 As this book seeks to show, emerging markets have enormous

business potential. Emerging countries plan to invest a total

ofnearly USD 30 trillion in their B2B and B2C sectors over the next
20 years, according to Roland Berger estimates. These immense
disbursements will improve the lives of millions of citizens across
the world. But leveraging the full potential of these investments
can be achieved only by companies that correctly position their
strategies.
Companies must adapt skillfully to market movements. Rapid
economic growth in China, for example, is turning many people
into millionaires. The number of Chinese households worth
atleastUSD 1 million leapt by over 60% in 2010. China recorded
1.1million millionaire households that year, considerably more
than the 670,000 it had in 2009. Many of these new millionaires
prefer products that cater to their unique cultural tastes.
Foreigncompanies now need to design and deliver products
tosatisfy a more diverse customer base.
A good example is Hansgrohe, which wins plaudits for international
competitiveness based on high-style, high-quality minimalist

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

F1

A consequence of the highvolatility is

that traditional planning cycles areno
longer any good. Forecasts of business
experts also differ significantly

5.4

Global GDP growth, 2000 -2011 (%)

IMF

4.8

4.5

IMF

2007

IMF

2000

2011

2005

3.9
IMF

2.9

Consensus

2001

2.4
IMF

Time horizons of traditional corporate planning, 2000 2011

Strategic planning
Traditional organizational structure
Medium-term planning
Operational planning

10 years
5-7 years
3-5 years
1 year

2009

-0.6
IMF

Source: IMF, Roland Berger

Study 7

F2

Emerging countries plan to invest a total of nearly USD 30 trillion

intheir B2B and B2C sectors over the next 20 years, according
toRoland Berger estimates

USD 30,000,
000,000,000
faucet designs. But after entering China, the company soon
discovered that Chinese homeowners do not favor sleek and trim
faucets. They want very visible, substantial handles and bodies.
After some in-house soul-searching, Hansgrohe designed aline of
heavyweight mixers exclusively for China. These bathroomfixtures
are now marketed very successfully to Chinese homeowners, but
they don't feature in the product catalog outsideChina.
When planning to enter emerging markets, successful companies
respond to trends outside their core industry. Siemens serves as
an excellent example of how to derive strategy from megatrends.
The company set up a dedicated department for sustainable urban
development. By tracking and analyzing broad long-term trends,
such as population change and urbanization, Siemens became a
global pioneer in sustainable urban development, especially
among emerging and developing countries. Siemens also bet on
higher emerging market demand for cheap and easy to use SMART
products: Simple, Maintenance-friendly, Affordable, Reliable
andTimely to market. With these design principles, they design
products pitched to the needs of newly industrializing and
developing countries. A good example is portable X-ray equipment,
which is now indispensable for doctors in Africa practicing in
clinics distributed across a large geographical area.

What are the risks?

However, if executives do not correctly interpret emerging and
developing economy market conditions, companies may
experience difficulties. According to Roland Berger estimates,
German companies investing in emerging markets with the wrong
strategy miss potential revenues of several USD 100 million
ayear. What's more, industrialized countries will find their
innovative edge quickly dulled if they miss tomorrow's trends.
Asia's automotive industry has already leapt over several
development stages in a single bound to dominate battery
technology, a critical e-mobility component. Chinese, Indian and
Arab companies increasingly bid for European and American
acquisitions. In 2011, for the first time, Europe was the top
destination for Chinese direct investment, totaling
USD10.4billion.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Guidance in uncertain
times Scenario planning
step by step

An approach that guides companies to strategic success

Study 9

What approach can guide companies

to success in uncertain times?
Changes in the macro environment outside of a company's
industry, such as political, social, ecological, economic or
technological developments, often play a decisive role in the
success of the company's business model. A holistic perspective
istherefore strongly recommended to incorporate macroenvironment factors in a flexible strategic plan.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants collaborated with HHL Leipzig
to design a scenario planning methodology that can give com
panies faster and earlier warning about important macroenvironment events, trends and changes. This analytical method
works like radar to track movements far beyond a company and
itsindustry. The methodology can detect "weak signal" influences
that typically only become evident in the long run. "Blind spots"
that are hidden in companies preoccupied by internal perspectives
become transparent. To develop this holistic view, our scenario
planning analytic techniques take into account the opinions of
many internal and external stakeholders.
Scenario planning is an appropriate tool for global companies in
allindustries whether automotive or pharmaceuticals, manufac
turing or services, aviation or energy utilities that wish to
position themselves successfully in emerging and developing
countries.
Our method for developing key future scenarios involves
fivecoresteps.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

1.

Defining
the scope
F3

The first step defines the project focus, the markets to develop
scenarios for and the time frame. To illustrate in general
termshow the process works, we will use a recent scenario
planning study from the global manufacturing industry.
"Manufacturing industry" here refers to a wide spectrum of
sectors, from mining and chemicals to metals manufacturing
andmaterials fabrication.

Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many

emergingeconomies. Over the past five years, their share
ofglobalmanufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50%

f3 Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many emerging

economies. Over the past five years, their share of global

manufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50%. Annual revenues
now reach around USD 20 trillion.1 Emerging economy govern
ments recognize the special importance of a manufacturing base.
Not only does industry employ a significant share of their
laborforce, but it also supplies strategically important products
toimprove critical sectors such as the national infrastructure.
How a country's manufacturing industry will evolve is clearly
strategically relevant to foreign producers and suppliers seeking
to enter and expand in emerging markets. But manufacturing's
diversity presents a challenge for developing coherent manufac
turing industry scenarios. To tackle this challenge, RolandBerger
Strategy Consultants has defined a set of scenarios and
appropriate business opportunities within the general manufac
turing industry. The concept development was grounded in the
customer and industry needs and trends of 2020 and factored in
input from internal stakeholders and external experts.

2012

50%
2007

30%
1) IHS Global Insight (2012)

Source: IHS Global Insight

Study 11

2.

Selecting
stakeholders

Scenario planning can help companies better anticipate how

macro-environment events could affect future performance and
business opportunities. A key initial step is to canvass the views
and opinions of the most important internal stakeholders, such
asboard members, top executives, key strategic and managerial
staff, and industry experts. When assessing emerging country
markets, we also identify appropriate external stakeholders and
market experts, such as politicians, members of the chamber of
commerce or local customers and suppliers. Identifying and
accessing the most knowledgeable individuals may not proceed
as efficiently as in familiar or advanced markets, but their voices
are critically important. It's also advisable to interview people
whowork at competitors. One leading German electronics group,
for example, always attempts to talk with local competitors' staff
before launching operations in a newly industrializing country.
Plant visits can also offer valuable insights into local conditions.
In our survey, we approach a broad range of stakeholders and
generally 40 to 50 respondents participate.

3.

Conducting
the survey

To illustrate how we conduct the survey and apply its findings to

create key scenarios, we'll refer to the previously mentioned
global manufacturing industry study. We start by using Roland
Berger's "360 stakeholder feedback questionnaire" to identify
those factors most likely to affect the global manufacturing
industry. First, we list influencing factors along the so-called STEEP
dimensions Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and
Political/legal and develop a questionnaire about them. We then
distribute this questionnaire to internal stakeholders (across
functions) and external experts (e.g. from local industry, think
tanks, academia, etc.) across critical manufacturing sectors
andgeographical locations. The respondents identify 40 to 50
separate influencing factors, which are then clustered in a second
survey to score each factor in terms of two key criteria:

Impact How significant

is the influencing factor
in a global context?
Certainty What is the
probability the influencing
factor will occur?

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

4.

Detecting weak signals

and blind spots

The next step is to compare internal and external stakeholders'

assessments and consolidate findings. All factors that show
potentially significant influence are identified, paying particular
attention to "weak signals" and "blind spots".
"Weak signals" are trends only a few stakeholders mention in the
first survey, but nearly all second-round respondents rate as
factors that could become highly relevant to a company's future
performance. For example, the global manufacturing study
detected that companies greatly underestimate the importance
ofsecuring access to rare earth metals. Future demand will be
enormous. The industry already uses around 130,000 tons per
year of these rare metals worldwide. Neodymium and yttrium, for
example, are particularly important in electric car batteries and
engines. Rising use of these materials is also boosted by
electronic equipment like flat-screen televisions and industrial
superconductors. Analysts predict that demand will reach
190,000tons in 2015. To meet that demand, Europe is highly
dependent onmaintaining good relationships with supplier
countries, notably China.
"Blind spots" are differences in how internal and external
stakeholders interpret a factor's importance. For example,
ourpharmaceutical and automotive sector studies show
thatwhen management gives excessive attention to internal
perceptions and preoccupations, important market
opportunitiesmay be missed.

Our survey of the automotive sector discovered another blind spot:

some managers severely underestimate the market potential of
simpler, more affordable vehicles. In India, small or economy
carsaccount for over 70% of all new vehicle registrations. Another
internal misperception was a failure to appreciate emerging
economy manufacturers' competitive strengths. Over the last five
years, passenger car production in developed countries decreased
by 2% annually to 32 million, but in developing countries, car
assembly doubled from 16 to 32 million cars. Emerging market
manufacturers now also venture into European territory:
Great Wall Motors will be the first Chinese automaker to
assemblecars in the European Union when the company opens
acar manufacturing plant in Bulgaria. The plant will have an
annualproduction capacity of 50,000 units and assemble four
differentmodels a sports utility vehicle (SUV), a pickup and
twopassenger car models which are all expected to be sold in
theEuropean Union.
Qoros, a Chinese brand previously unknown in Germany, recently
announced plans to sell cars in Europe. Starting in mid-2013,
some 150,000 vehicles will roll off Qoros production lines and
capacity will ramp up to double the output within the next few
years. The company intends to earn half its revenue in Europe.
These examples show how European-based companies may
missmarket opportunities and lose revenue if they concentrate
too intently on internal opinions and priorities.

A recent pharmaceutical industry survey of all stakeholders

detected insufficient in-house appreciation of biosimilars. These
are bioengineered follow-on drugs officially approved after the
original drug's patent has expired. Experts predict the biosimilar
market, with total sales of USD 400 million in 2010, will grow in
fouryears to USD 2 or 3 billion.2 The reason why biosimilars are
anexciting option for the pharmaceutical industry is that
moreandmore emerging countries will demand and have the
resourcesto pay for improved healthcare. The trends are already
apparent. Overthe past five years, per capita health spending
inthe BRICcountries rose by USD 87. In absolute terms,
thismeanspeople purchased an additional USD 252 billion3
inhealthcare services.
2) Global Industry Analysts (2010) 3) Euromonitor (2011)

Study 13

5.

Deriving
scenarios
F4

To illustrate this step, we return to our study of the global

manufacturing industry. Based on stakeholder evaluations, the
factors that influence global manufacturing can be allocated
intothefollowing categories:

Influencing factors are categorized

bypotential impact and certainty

High

Critical uncertainties
or weak signals (low certainty but highest
impact on the scenarios)

Definite trends*
(high certainty, high impact)

Potential
impact

Secondary elements
These elements elements are eliminated
(low impact)

LOW
LOW

Certainty

* Definite trends:
Growth of developing countries as end-use
markets (e.g. China and India)
Use of nanotechnology, miniaturization
and microelectronics
Transition to lightweight materials (e.g. composites)
Source: Roland Berger

high

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

F5

Scenario building process following

a step-by-step approach

Long list of relevant

uncertainties

Move to trend

No

Check importance
of "un-clustered"
uncertainty

Yes

Build scenario
matrix using key
uncertainties

Re-cut dimensions

No

Cluster by
common
theme?

Important uncertainty

Yes
Uncertain?

Trends
stable in
each future?

Yes

No

Re-cut common
themes & scenario
dimensions

Source: Roland Berger

We found that resource intensity and economic protectionism are

the major key uncertainties likely to have the largest impact
across the entire industrial sector. These uncertainties become
the scenario matrix axes pictured in figures 5 and 6.

Matrix dimension: resource intensity

Resource intensity refers to the level of natural resource
consumption, such as the use of metals or water. Government
subsidies and regulations can substantially determine an
industrial economy's resource intensity, and consumer pref
erences for green and sustainable products play a role as well.

Impact of the resource intensity dimension

Resource intensity exerts considerable influence on product
development, production processes and end-product handling.
New alternative materials and more economical production
technologies may ease future resource constraints. But this
possibility doesn't negate the substantial historical and continuing
investment in large-scale manufacturing using conventional
technologies and energy sources.

Study 15

High protectionism
F6

Four major future scenarios for the global

manufacturing industry

Protectionism
(incl. trade blocs)
Compliance with green
regulations but no level
playing field
Customer-driven mfg.
aligned with domestic
demand

I
Antagonistic
age

II
Polarized
world

Low resource intensity

Free movement
of goods and ideas
Collective emphasis
on sustainability and
waste reduction
Modular mfg. with madeto-order products

Globalization restrained
by national interests
Poor compliance with
green/waste regulations
Manufacturing close
to demand

High resource intensity

IV
Green
capitalism

III
Squandering
society

Free trade, incl. threats

of dumping
Low sustainability
awareness focus on
personal utility
Mass production with
homogeneous products

Source: Roland Berger

Low protectionism

Matrix dimension: protectionism

Protectionism refers to market-distorting mechanisms, such as
duties, tariffs and foreign ownership restrictions that nations and
regions apply to advance their own trade interests and economic
agendas. These techniques seek to preserve critical resources and
can extend to intellectual property, patent protection and, more
dramatically, industrial espionage.
Impact of the protectionism dimension
Economic protectionism significantly influences global markets,
and frequently complicates production and logistics.

These two key uncertainties, protectionism and resource

intensity, let us explore comprehensive scenario storylines. We
will now consider four plausible scenarios by validating trends and
describing scenario dimensions in more detail, with particular
attention to how companies in developed countries might enter
emerging markets.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

An antagonistic age of low resource

intensity and high protectionism
In this vision of the future, countries with abundant raw materials
focus on production technologies, while those without, such
asthose in Western Europe, design or develop alternatives. Novel
materials are designed for specific applications and scientists
create a newperiodic table of nanomaterials. Industrialized and
high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia
benefit most from these developments because they can leverage
and exchange their valuable expertise and skills for commodities.
Thisdefines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and
Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those
companies that can produce green energy, due to rising demand
for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-generation
and co-generation technologies are particularly important.

High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech companies to penetrate emerging markets. The automotive
industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are
no longer sold globally, major car exporting nations like Germany
and the US lose substantial market share across Asia and Latin
America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit
the cement and energy sectors particularly hard.

Complying with regional environmental standards

to satisfy regulations
Securing access to natural resources
(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Leveraging expert know-how and innovative
technologies to develop substitute materials
Attracting and retaining well-educated human capital
with emerging market expertise
Forging strategic trade relations with local
emerging market suppliers

Study 17

A polarized world with high resource

intensity and high protectionism
Enterprises in resource-rich countries prosper at the expense of
large multinationals. This shift in economic power leaves resourcepoor economies such as Western Europe and Japan scrambling
tosource raw materials. Countries with natural resources focus on
production technologies, while resource-poor countries design
anddevelop alternative materials. Resource-rich regions,
especially those with large regional markets and technologically
advanced economies, flourish. These include North America, China,
India, Russia, Brazil, Australia and the Middle East. But Japan
andWestern Europe lose out in this future vision because high
protectionism inhibits trade in resources.
Developing regions' demand for steel and cement soars as
countries pursue ambitious agendas to modernize infrastructures

and catch up with the developed world. Substantial chemical

production shifts to China, Russia and the Middle East as
manufacturers move closer to customers and markets. Due to
high protectionism, developed nation manufacturers find it
difficult to install production facilities in the new emerging
markets.
Energy remains a core industry dominated by fossil fuels. The
mining sector invests in underground extraction as minerals
become harder and harder to find. The automotive sector suffers
from market fragmentation, and protectionism signals the end
ofglobal brand cars like the Ford Focus. European manufacturers
lose significant market share as emerging countries focus on
regional car brands.

Securing access to natural resources

(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Optimizing costs by exploiting resources cost-effectively
to ensure competitively priced products
Restructuring operations (incl. small-scale plants)
to supply local/regional markets
Forging strategic relations with local emerging market
suppliers to provide technologies and services for
the booming infrastructure sector
Taking marketing actions to establish a regional brand
among emerging market suppliers

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

A squandering society with high resource

intensity and low protectionism
Developed nations can potentially profit by supporting emerging
nations' efforts to mass-produce low-cost goods. A particularly
aptexample is Siemens' SMART product line. In this scenario,
moreglobal attention is paid to "reverse innovation", inventions
createdin developing countries and disseminated to the
industrialized world. An example is the Tata Nano automobile,
upgraded for Western markets and marketed as Tata Europe.
Gigantic, complex supply chains create immense business value
for companies that have the capability to orchestrate these
chainsand delay customization. Technology companies that can
"glue" the manufacturing economy together will increasingly
capture value. Large-scale fossil fuel power plants still dominate

the energy sector, driving open-pit mining for coal and more
exploitation of resources in Africa. Gas guzzlers dominate
theautomotive landscape. Millions of first-time car buyers in
theemerging markets of China and India crave prestige cars
fromtheWest. Western manufacturers are able to exploit
thislucrativemarket. Electric vehicle technology transfers
fromdeveloped todeveloping countries, only to languish in a
nicheexistence. Industrialized nations' renewable energy
solutions take a backseat, as do micro energy generation
technologies.

Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs

and ensure know-how transfer
Guaranteeing access to well-educated personnel with local
market know-how to develop innovative products and solutions
Developing mass production capabilities to address
emerging market demand
Optimizing costs to offer competitively priced products
Setting up a global supply chain to guarantee delivery
of Western products like prestige cars to emerging markets
and also to market reverse innovations back to
industrialized nations

Study 19

Capitalism goes green with low resource

intensity and low protectionism
Developed economies pursue strong market opportunities in a
lowprotectionist environment conducive to foreign direct
investment and knowledge transfer. There is high uptake in the
renewable energy sector, which benefits developed country
providers and equipment manufacturers. Micro energy generation
technologies are widespread. With the required infrastructure
inplace, electricvehicles are prevalent. Western companies have
theopportunity to export their car technologies to emerging
markets. Novel materials are designed for specific uses and
environments. Additive manufacturing moves out of niche
applications into mainstream manufacturing. Increased use of
steel and glass, especially in buildings, lowers demand for cement.
A potentially large market develops for Western construction
companies. Theregional winners will be Western Europe, North
America, Japan, Brazil, India and China.

This future also sees an end to rising energy demand as fossil fuel
power generation declines. Traditional Middle East fossil fuel
economies are the losers in this scenario. Western dependence
onoil-exporting countries such as Iran decreases significantly.
Greencapitalism stresses the mining industry as substitutes are
found and consumers lobby against excessive and destructive
mining practices.

Complying with environmental standards to satisfy

regulations and consumer requirements
Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs
and ensure know-how transfer
Securing access to well-educated personnel to develop
innovative products and solutions, such as lightweight
materials and biodegradable components
Instituting a green product life cycle, including a
green global supply chain
Adopting a modular manufacturing philosophy with
made-to-order production

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Conclusion

How to benefit from the different scenarios

Study 21

Trying to identify business opportunities in an uncertain future is

atough challenge. But the scenario planning designed by HHL
Leipzig and Roland Berger helps strategic planners and decisionmakers identify the most relevant future scenarios in specific
industries and regions.
Each of the four scenarios described for the global manufacturing
industry represents an extreme vision of the future. The world may
never resemble any of these positions exactly, but the trends and
issues identified in each will shape the eventual outcomes.
Industries in any region could exhibit characteristics from different
scenarios depending on how protectionism and resource intensity
affect industry-specific dynamics. Companies from developed
nations will succeed if they can identify opportunities that cut
across several scenarios and, with a little tweaking, find strategies
to capture the full potential of any possible scenario.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Author
Bernd Brunke
Partner and Member of the
Global Executive Committee, Berlin

Benno van Dongen

Partner, Amsterdam

benno.dongen@rolandberger.com

bernd.brunke@rolandberger.com

William Downey
Partner, New York

william.downey@rolandberger.com

Co-Authors
Christophe Angoulvant
Partner, Paris
christophe.angoulvant@rolandberger.com

Duce Gotora
Project Manager, London

duce.gotora@rolandberger.com

Dr. Wilfried Aulbur

Partner, Mumbai

Carolin Griese-Michels
Principal, Hamburg

wilfried.aulbur@rolandberger.com

carolin.griese@rolandberger.com

Andreas Bauer
Partner, Munich

Maren Hauptmann
Partner, Munich

andreas.bauer@rolandberger.com

maren.hauptmann@rolandberger.com

Study 23

Daniel Himmel
Project Manager, Berlin

Per I. Nilsson
Partner, Stockholm

daniel.himmel@rolandberger.com

per-i.nilsson@rolandberger.com

Nicklas Holgersson
Project Manager, London

Dr. Verena Reichl

Senior Expert, Munich

nicklas.holgersson@rolandberger.com

verena.reichl@rolandberger.com

Fabian Huhle
Principal, Munich

Tina Wang
Partner, Beijing

fabian.huhle@rolandberger.com

tina.wang@rolandberger.com

Dr. Johannes Klein

Principal, Berlin

Dr. Tim Zimmermann

Partner, Munich

johannes.klein@rolandberger.com

tim.zimmermann@rolandberger.com

Frank Lateur
Principal, Brussels

Dr. Michael Zollenkop

Principal, Stuttgart

michael.zollenkop@rolandberger.com

frank.lateur@rolandberger.com

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

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Study 25

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Data Insight Web

National Science Board (2012)

Science and engineering indicators 2012

J. R. Immelt (2009)
How GE is disrupting itself

new economic foundation, Centre for Well-being (2012)

Happy Planet Index

Innovation 360 Group (2012)

The missing link between innovation strategy
and leadership in the Middle East

OECD (2010)
The emerging middle class in developing countries

INSEAD (2011)
The Global Innovation Index 2011
Interbrand (2012)
Best global brands 2011
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2007)
2007 update of probabilistic world population projections

F. Pearce (2011)
The coming population crash And our planet's surprising future
Population Resource Center (2008)
Population and the food crisis
C. K. Prahalad (2006)
The innovation paradox

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

I. Razak (2009)
The correlation between population and
economic growth in Malaysia
P. Reddy (2008)
Global innovation in emerging economies
Implications for other developing countries
Q. M. Robinson and H. J. Park (2006)
Examining the link between diversity and firm performance:
The effects of diversity reputation and leader racial diversity
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Automotive Landscape 2025 (2011)
Corporate headquarters study (2005, 2008, 2010)
Frugal products (2012)
Manufacturing futures Using scenario planning to identify
opportunities in a multi-sector industry (2011)
Modular products How to leverage modular product kits
for growth and globalization (2012)
Organizing and managing R&D in high-tech industries (2011)
think: act CONTENT Diversity and inclusion too soft a subject?
Not at all (2010)
think: act CONTENT Scenario planning (2009)
think: act STUDY Chinese consumer report (2009)
think: act STUDY Delivering financial services in
sub-Saharan Africa (2011)
Trend Compendium 2030 (2011)

L. Taylor (2011)
Diabetes - pharma's fastest-growing market
The German Foundation for World Population (2011, 2012)
Online project: 7 billion
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(2010, 2011)
World Investment Report
United Nations (1960, 2009, 2010, 2011)
The future growth of the world population (1960)
World Population Prospects The 2009 and 2010 Revision
World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 and 2011 Revision
W. W. Weber (2008)
Managing complexity Lessons from Peter Drucker and
NiklasLuhmann
T. Yasuyuki and S. Hitoshi (2011)
Effects of CEOs' characteristics on internationalization of
small and medium enterprises in Japan
W. Zhang (2011)
Understanding China's economic trajectory
World Bank (2011)
The Ease of Doing Business Index

Roland Berger School of Strategy and Economics (2012)

Scenario update 2012

World Economic Forum et al. (2010)

Stimulating economies through fostering talent mobility

Saleschase (2012)
Why mobile marketing in emerging markets is the next big thing

World Economic Forum (2012)

WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2011/2012

F. Siebdrat, M. Hoegl and H. Ernst (2009)

How to manage virtual teams

WorldPay (2012)
Global Online Shopping Report

Simon Kucher (2011)

Dax Management: Sehr international aber kaum weiblich
Spiegel Magazine (44/2011)
Das groe Schrumpfen
Sddeutsche Zeitung (6/2012)
Die digitale Revolution erobert Afrika

Study 27

Credits

Special thanks to

Pages 2: sinopictures/viewchina

Our interviewees:
Siegfried Gnlen, CEO Hansgrohe AG
Manfred Grundke, General Partner Knauf Gips KG
Ruth Schaefer, CEO Ruth Schaefer Intercultural

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Global Topics
project description
With our GLOBAL TOPICS initiative, we
assess the most pressing issues for
leaders in society, business and politics
and outline possible solutions.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

For more information, please visit:

www.rolandberger.com/globaltopics
If you have any questions, please contact us at:
global_topics@rolandberger.com
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH
HighLight Towers, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str. 6, 80807 Munich, Germany

Study 30