Periodo

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Demanda
1971
2184
2671
2695
1266
1200
2836
1958
2509
1439
1757
1107
2331
1549
1611
1800
1824
2954
2111
1835
1557
1933
2875
1990

Pronostico
1971
1971
1981.65
2016.1175
2050.06163
2010.85854
1970.31562
2013.59984
2010.81984
2035.72885
2005.89241
1993.44779
1949.1254
1968.21913
1947.25817
1930.44526
1923.923
1918.92685
1970.68051
1977.69648
1970.56166
1949.88358
1949.0394
1995.33743

Error Rel
0
-213
-689.35
-678.8825
784.061625
810.858544
-865.684383
55.5998357
-498.180156
596.728852
248.892409
886.447789
-381.874601
419.219129
336.258173
130.445264
99.923001
-1035.07315
-140.319492
142.696483
413.561659
16.8835759
-925.960603
5.33742723

Error Abs
0
213
689.35
678.8825
784.061625
810.858544
865.684383
55.5998357
498.180156
596.728852
248.892409
886.447789
381.874601
419.219129
336.258173
130.445264
99.923001
1035.07315
140.319492
142.696483
413.561659
16.8835759
925.960603
5.33742723

Error Cuad
0
45369
475203.423
460881.449
614752.632
657491.578
749409.452
3091.34173
248183.468
356085.323
61947.4313
785789.682
145828.211
175744.678
113069.559
17015.967
9984.60613
1071376.42
19689.5597
20362.2863
171033.246
285.055135
857403.038
28.4881295

Media
D. Estandar
CV
Sesgo
1998.45833 540.893221 0.27065524 -481.411117

Alpha
MSE
0.05
28.4881295

INGRESE AQU EL FACTOR DE SUAVIZACION

DMA
432.30161

Resultados
Alpha
MSE
0.05 28.4881295
0.15 7.62046453
0.25 845.750726
0.35 3481.92989
0.45 8478.67342
0.55 5907.18928
0.65 24.2867162
0.75 4469.54624
0.85 892.147062
0.95 669.795679