Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Media (mm):
Desviacin (mm):
Coef. Asimetra:
Observaciones n:
116.9
81.7
80.4
49.2
85.3
49.9
65.8
80.5
88.3
106.6
90.4
57.6
67.5
63
61.5
78.5
66.7
101.3
74.7
87.4
53.2
63.7
4.7613
4.4031
4.3870
3.8959
4.4462
3.9100
4.1866
4.3883
4.4807
4.6691
4.5042
4.0535
4.2121
4.1431
4.1190
4.3631
4.2002
4.6181
4.3135
4.4705
3.9741
4.1542
75.914
17.781
0.503
22
4.302
0.233
0.024
Parmetros
Prec. Media (mm):
75.914
Desviacin (mm):
17.781
Coef. Asimetra:
0.503
Tr Aos
1/P
2
5
10
25
50
100
Periodo de Retorno
2
5
10
25
50
100
Parmetros Gumbel
Observaciones n:
22
Yn=22:
0.52678
Sn=22:
1.07547
Probabilidad
Excedencia
P
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01
F(x)
P = 1-1/P
0.50
0.80
0.90
0.96
0.98
0.99
Y
-ln[-ln[F(x)]]
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.6001
73.264
92.003
104.410
120.086
131.715
143.259
73.880
89.903
99.617
111.134
119.274
127.103
73.880
89.911
99.604
111.142
119.280
127.092
I=
Duracin (min)
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
3.5761 *T
0.53219
t
4.302
0.233
0.0
Coef Asimetra=
Gumbel corregido
Corregido n=22
PM24H_Corregido n=22
(Y-Yn)/Sn
PM24H_med+
-0.1490
73.2639
0.9049
92.0029
1.6026
104.4097
2.4843
120.0857
3.1383
131.7151
3.7875
143.2586
Log - Normal
Z
Tabla Normal
0.00000
0.84163
1.28156
1.75069
2.05377
2.32637
0.232638
Ln
Ln:
100
265.983
183.929
127.187
102.502
82.607
70.880
57.123
49.014
43.526
39.501
0.0
e^((Ln+ZLn))
73.8804
89.9106
99.6035
111.1420
119.2800
127.0916
50
226.372
156.537
108.246
87.237
70.305
60.325
48.616
41.715
37.044
33.618
e^((Ln+ZLn))
73.8804
89.9028
99.6165
111.1340
119.2737
127.1026
160
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
100
Log Pearson
200
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ao
150
100
50
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Duracin (min)
2
10
25
50
100
Probabilidad
F(x)
Excedencia
Parmetros
Prec. Media (mm):
75.914
Desviacin (mm):
17.781
Coef. Asimetra:
0.503
Gumbel corregido
Corregido n=22
PM24H_Corregido n=22
(Y-Yn)/Sn
PM24H_med+
-0.1490
73.2639
0.9049
92.0029
1.6026
104.4097
2.4843
120.0857
3.1383
131.7151
3.7875
143.2586
1/P
2
5
10
25
50
100
P
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01
P = 1-1/P
0.50
0.80
0.90
0.96
0.98
0.99
Y
-ln[-ln[F(x)]]
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.6001
Tr (Aos)/ t (min)
2
5
10
25
50
100
5
0.0975
0.1101
0.1159
0.1216
0.1249
0.1277
10
0.1730
0.1996
0.2119
0.2239
0.2309
0.2368
20
0.3027
0.3439
0.3631
0.3817
0.3926
0.4017
30
0.3780
0.4228
0.4437
0.4639
0.4758
0.4858
Relacin (Pt/P24h)
45
0.4559
0.5037
0.5260
0.5476
0.5603
0.5708
60
0.5213
0.5701
0.5928
0.6148
0.6278
0.6386
90
0.5863
0.6673
0.7051
0.7416
0.7632
0.7811
120
0.6439
0.7384
0.7824
0.8250
0.8501
0.8710
150
0.6777
0.7713
0.8150
0.8572
0.8821
0.9028
180
0.6899
0.7892
0.8355
0.8803
0.9067
0.9287
Tr (Aos)/ t (min)
2
5
10
25
50
100
5
7.1432
10.1295
12.1011
14.6024
16.4512
18.2941
10
12.6747
18.3638
22.1244
26.8872
30.4130
33.9236
20
22.1770
31.6398
37.9112
45.8367
51.7114
57.5470
30
27.6938
38.8988
46.3266
55.7078
62.6701
69.5950
60
38.1925
52.4508
61.8941
73.8287
82.6908
91.4850
90
42.9546
61.3935
73.6193
89.0556
100.5250
111.8993
120
47.1747
67.9349
81.6902
99.0707
111.9710
124.7783
150
49.6510
70.9618
85.0939
102.9375
116.1859
129.3339
180
50.5448
72.6087
87.2343
105.7115
119.4261
133.0443
t (min) / Tr (Aos)
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
2
50.545
49.651
47.175
42.955
38.192
33.401
27.694
22.177
12.675
7.143
5
72.609
70.962
67.935
61.394
52.451
46.342
38.899
31.640
18.364
10.130
50
119.426
116.186
111.971
100.525
82.691
73.800
62.670
51.711
30.413
16.451
Parmetros Gumbel
Observaciones n:
22
Yn=22:
0.52678
Sn=22:
1.07547
100
133.044
129.334
124.778
111.899
91.485
81.772
69.595
57.547
33.924
18.294
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
1.3482
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
1.6966
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
1.8740
A=
3.8505
ln x*ln y
20.371
19.567
18.450
16.920
14.914
13.356
11.296
9.284
5.848
3.164
133.1704
B=
5.4556
6.5143
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
y = 3.8505x0.5315
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
150
180
Regresin TR = 5 aos
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
y = 5.4556x0.5319
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
0.5319
ln x*ln y
23.205
22.266
21.079
19.344
16.891
15.249
13.046
10.890
7.130
4.013
153.1139
B=
Regresin TR = 2 aos
70.0
0.5315
ln x*ln y
22.252
21.356
20.196
18.527
16.213
14.603
12.452
10.349
6.701
3.727
146.3754
B=
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Intensidad (mm/hr)
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Regresin TR = 10 aos
120.0
100.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
80.0
60.0
y = 6.5143x0.5323
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5323
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
2.0615
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
2.1804
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
2.2865
A=
7.8580
ln x*ln y
24.203
23.220
22.003
20.201
17.613
15.935
13.673
11.459
7.579
4.315
160.2003
B=
8.8501
9.8401
120.0
100.0
80.0
y = 7.858x0.5324
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Regresin TR = 50 aos
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
y = 8.8501x0.5325
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5325
ln x*ln y
25.397
24.364
23.107
21.228
18.491
16.764
14.430
12.141
8.115
4.678
168.7145
B=
Regresin TR = 25 aos
140.0
0.5324
ln x*ln y
24.836
23.827
22.589
20.746
18.077
16.374
14.074
11.820
7.863
4.507
164.7122
B=
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Intensidad (mm/hr)
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
y = 9.8401x0.5326
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5326
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
x
2
5
10
25
50
100
192
Ln (A) =
Coef. de
regresin [ c ]
0.5314787903
0.5319192912
0.5322537974
0.5323576625
0.5325495028
0.5325791893
0.5321897
1.2743
A=
3.5761
B=
0.232638
I=
3.5761
ln x*ln y
0.9345
2.7306
4.3150
6.6358
8.5299
10.5295
33.6754
* T
0.53219
t
(lnx)^2
0.4805
2.5903
5.3019
10.3612
15.3039
21.2076
55.2453
0.2326
I = Intensidad de precipitacin (mm/hr)
T = Periodo de Retorno (aos)
Periodo de
Retorno (aos)
2
5
10
25
50
100
Media =
8.0
6.0
4.0
y = 3.5761x0.2326
R = 0.9683
2.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
Conclusiones:
140.0
120.0
100.0
Recomendaciones:
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
20
40
Tr=2
60
Tr=5
80
Tr=10
100
120
Tr=25
Tr=50
140
160
180
Tr=100
Ln(P Mx 24h)
mm
mm
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
116.9
81.7
80.4
49.2
85.3
49.9
65.8
80.5
88.3
106.6
90.4
57.6
67.5
63
61.5
78.5
66.7
101.3
74.7
4.7613
4.4031
4.3870
3.8959
4.4462
3.9100
4.1866
4.3883
4.4807
4.6691
4.5042
4.0535
4.2121
4.1431
4.1190
4.3631
4.2002
4.6181
4.3135
1993
87.4
4.4705
1994
53.2
3.9741
63.7
4.1542
Media (mm):
1995
75.914
4.302
Desviacin (mm):
17.781
0.233
Coef. Asimetra:
0.503
0.024
Observaciones n:
22
Regin
Andina (R1)
Caribe (R2)
Pacfico (R3)
Orinoqua (R4)
d
0.830
0.100
0.200
0.420
Duracin (min)
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
10
25
50
100
273.646
325.685
371.529
442.183
504.426
575.431
183.059
217.871
248.540
295.804
337.443
384.943
122.460
145.748
166.264
197.882
225.737
257.513
96.797
115.205
131.421
156.413
178.431
203.547
76.512
91.062
103.880
123.635
141.038
160.891
64.754
77.068
87.916
104.635
119.364
136.166
51.184
60.917
69.492
82.707
94.349
107.630
43.318
51.556
58.813
69.997
79.850
91.090
38.059
45.297
51.673
61.499
70.156
80.032
34.240
40.751
46.488
55.328
63.116
72.001
600
500
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ao
I=
0.190000
0.2000
0.20798
13.9200 *T
0.58000
t
400
300
200
100
0.232638
I=
3.5761 *T
0.53219
t
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Duracin (min)
2
10
#REF!
25
50
100
Estacin Venta de Cajibio - Comparacin de resultados obtenidos por cada mtodo (diferencias)
Valores de precipitaciones mximas en 24 horas para varios periodos de retorno
Duracin (min)
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
10
25
50
100
60.88%
59.32%
58.10%
56.43%
55.12%
53.78%
59.56%
57.95%
56.69%
54.96%
53.61%
52.22%
58.20%
56.53%
55.23%
53.44%
52.05%
50.61%
57.38%
55.68%
54.35%
52.53%
51.11%
49.64%
56.54%
54.81%
53.46%
51.60%
50.15%
48.66%
55.94%
54.19%
52.81%
50.93%
49.46%
47.95%
55.08%
53.29%
51.89%
49.97%
48.47%
46.93%
54.46%
52.64%
51.22%
49.28%
47.76%
46.19%
53.97%
52.14%
50.70%
48.74%
47.20%
45.61%
53.57%
51.72%
50.27%
48.29%
46.74%
45.14%
Conclusin: Los resultados obtenidos a partir de la ecuaciones regionalizadas propuestas por Daz - Granados , no son significativos
con respecto a los valores obtenidos mediante la informacin de precipitaciones mximas, esto debido principalmente a la poca
disponibilidad de estaciones para la regin del Pacfico.
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
46
153
45
76.4
63.7
77.4
42.5
70.4
75.3
106
45.2
78.4
74.3
75.2
83.2
82.3
125
70.3
68.2
180.7
80
80
71
83
3.8286
5.0304
3.8067
4.3360
4.1542
4.3490
3.7495
4.2542
4.3215
4.6634
3.8111
4.3618
4.3081
4.3202
4.4212
4.4104
4.8283
4.2528
4.2224
5.1968
4.3820
4.3820
4.2627
4.4188
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1994
69
63
85
85
66
65
94
61
135
90
73.4
78.6
73.4
85.1
85.4
61.9
65.8
66.8
108
87.4
78.4
80.4
66.2
58.4
75.2
66.2
37
97.1
64.6
88
4.2341
4.1431
4.4427
4.4427
4.1897
4.1744
4.5433
4.1109
4.9053
4.4998
4.2959
4.3644
4.2959
4.4438
4.4473
4.1255
4.1866
4.2017
4.6821
4.4705
4.3618
4.3870
4.1927
4.0673
4.3202
4.1927
3.6109
4.5757
4.1682
4.4773
78.941
24.896
1.862
54
4.326
0.285
0.4
Media (mm):
Desviacin (mm):
Coef. Asimetra:
Observaciones n:
Parmetros
Prec. Media (mm):
78.941
Desviacin (mm):
24.896
Coef. Asimetra:
1.862
Tr Aos
1/P
2
5
10
25
50
100
Parmetros Gumbel
Observaciones n:
54
Yn=54:
0.55009
Sn=54:
1.16676
Probabilidad
F(x)
Excedencia
P
P = 1-1/P
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01
Periodo de Retorno
2
5
10
25
50
100
Y
-ln[-ln[F(x)]]
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.6001
0.50
0.80
0.90
0.96
0.98
0.99
Ln
Ln:
Gumbel corregido
Corregido n=54
(Y-Yn)/Sn
-0.1573
0.8141
1.4573
2.2699
2.8728
3.4712
Log - Normal
Z
Tabla Normal
0.00000
0.84163
1.28156
1.75069
2.05377
2.32637
PM24H_Corregido n=54
PM24H_med+
75.0236
99.2085
115.2209
135.4527
150.4619
165.3601
75.024
99.208
115.221
135.453
150.462
165.360
75.672
96.161
108.992
124.566
135.792
146.751
e^((Ln+ZLn))
74.2631
95.4616
110.0970
129.2373
144.0447
159.3191
170
160
150
0.261885
3.6464
* T
0.53219
t
Duracin (min)
2
111.394
77.029
53.266
42.928
34.596
29.685
23.923
20.527
18.229
16.543
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
0.4
74.263
95.462
110.097
129.237
144.045
159.319
I=
PM24H_NLog
e^((Ln+ZLn))
75.6717
96.1606
108.9917
124.5660
135.7921
146.7506
100
310.309
214.580
148.383
119.583
96.373
82.692
66.643
57.182
50.779
46.084
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2
Gumbel
Log Normal
100
Log Pearson
250
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ao
200
150
100
50
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Duracin (min)
2
10
25
50
100
Probabilidad
F(x)
Excedencia
Parmetros
Prec. Media (mm):
78.941
Desviacin (mm):
24.896
Coef. Asimetra:
1.862
Gumbel corregido
Corregido n=54
PM24H_Corregido n=54
(Y-Yn)/Sn
PM24H_med+
-0.1573
75.0236
0.8141
99.2085
1.4573
115.2209
2.2699
135.4527
2.8728
150.4619
3.4712
165.3601
1/P
2
5
10
25
50
100
P
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01
P = 1-1/P
0.50
0.80
0.90
0.96
0.98
0.99
Y
-ln[-ln[F(x)]]
0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.6001
Tr (Aos)/ t (min)
2
5
10
25
50
100
5
0.0975
0.1101
0.1159
0.1216
0.1249
0.1277
10
0.1730
0.1996
0.2119
0.2239
0.2309
0.2368
20
0.3027
0.3439
0.3631
0.3817
0.3926
0.4017
30
0.3780
0.4228
0.4437
0.4639
0.4758
0.4858
Relacin (Pt/P24h)
45
0.4559
0.5037
0.5260
0.5476
0.5603
0.5708
60
0.5213
0.5701
0.5928
0.6148
0.6278
0.6386
90
0.5863
0.6673
0.7051
0.7416
0.7632
0.7811
120
0.6439
0.7384
0.7824
0.8250
0.8501
0.8710
150
0.6777
0.7713
0.8150
0.8572
0.8821
0.9028
180
0.6899
0.7892
0.8355
0.8803
0.9067
0.9287
Tr (Aos)/ t (min)
2
5
10
25
50
100
5
7.3148
10.9229
13.3541
16.4711
18.7927
21.1165
10
12.9791
19.8020
24.4153
30.3279
34.7416
39.1573
20
22.7096
34.1178
41.8367
51.7023
59.0713
66.4252
30
28.3589
41.9453
51.1235
62.8365
71.5898
80.3320
60
39.1098
56.5587
68.3030
83.2763
94.4600
105.5990
90
43.9863
66.2018
81.2423
100.4518
114.8325
129.1628
120
48.3077
73.2555
90.1489
111.7485
127.9076
144.0287
150
50.8435
76.5195
93.9051
116.1101
132.7224
149.2871
180
51.7588
78.2953
96.2671
119.2391
136.4238
153.5700
t (min) / Tr (Aos)
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
2
51.759
50.843
48.308
43.986
39.110
34.203
28.359
22.710
12.979
7.315
5
78.295
76.519
73.256
66.202
56.559
49.971
41.945
34.118
19.802
10.923
50
136.424
132.722
127.908
114.832
94.460
84.304
71.590
59.071
34.742
18.793
Parmetros Gumbel
Observaciones n:
54
Yn=54:
0.55009
Sn=54:
1.16676
100
153.570
149.287
144.029
129.163
105.599
94.388
80.332
66.425
39.157
21.116
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
1.3719
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
1.7720
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
1.9725
A=
3.9429
ln x*ln y
20.494
19.686
18.564
17.027
15.011
13.446
11.377
9.355
5.902
3.203
134.0652
B=
5.8829
7.1888
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
y = 3.9429x0.5315
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
150
180
Regresin TR = 5 aos
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
y = 5.8829x0.5319
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
0.5319
ln x*ln y
23.717
22.760
21.551
19.788
17.294
15.624
13.381
11.185
7.357
4.171
156.8285
B=
Regresin TR = 2 aos
70.0
0.5315
ln x*ln y
22.644
21.734
20.557
18.866
16.522
14.890
12.708
10.574
6.875
3.848
149.2182
B=
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Intensidad (mm/hr)
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Regresin TR = 10 aos
120.0
100.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
80.0
60.0
y = 7.1888x0.5323
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5323
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
2.1820
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
2.3135
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
Ln (A) =
2.4299
A=
8.8636
ln x*ln y
24.828
23.823
22.579
20.743
18.106
16.393
14.083
11.820
7.857
4.509
164.7401
B=
10.1097
11.3582
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
y = 8.8636x0.5324
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Regresin TR = 50 aos
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
y = 10.11x0.5325
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5325
ln x*ln y
26.142
25.083
23.794
21.874
19.078
17.310
14.918
12.570
8.445
4.909
174.1236
B=
Regresin TR = 25 aos
160.0
0.5324
ln x*ln y
25.527
24.493
23.226
21.345
18.622
16.880
14.526
12.219
8.169
4.721
169.7290
B=
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Intensidad (mm/hr)
x
180
150
120
90
60
45
30
20
10
5
710.0
(lnx)^2
26.967
25.106
22.920
20.248
16.764
14.491
11.568
8.974
5.302
2.590
154.9307
Intensidad (mm/hr)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
150.0
100.0
y = 11.358x0.5326
50.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
120
150
180
0.5326
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
x
2
5
10
25
50
100
192
Ln (A) =
Coef. de
regresin [ c ]
0.5314787903
0.5319192912
0.5322537974
0.5323576625
0.5325495028
0.5325791893
0.5321897
1.2937
A=
3.6464
B=
0.261885
I=
3.6464
ln x*ln y
0.9509
2.8520
4.5419
7.0234
9.0504
11.1903
35.6090
* T
0.53219
t
(lnx)^2
0.4805
2.5903
5.3019
10.3612
15.3039
21.2076
55.2453
0.2619
I = Intensidad de precipitacin (mm/hr)
T = Periodo de Retorno (aos)
Periodo de
Retorno (aos)
2
5
10
25
50
100
Media =
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
y = 3.6464x0.2619
R = 0.9652
2.0
0.0
0
30
60
90
Duracin (min)
Conclusiones:
1. A partir del coeficiente de determinacin R2 (0.9652) es posible establecer que
no se indican diferencias significativas entre los modelos ajustados para la estacin
de Apto G. Valencia.
2. Los modelos utilizados para explicar la relacin entre la intensidad, la duracin y la
frecuencia, poseen una significancia representativa en el ajuste de los datos, lo que
asegura el desarrollo de predicciones aceptables para las intensidades mximas de
precipitacin.
3. Segn el modelo obtenido para la IDF de la Estacin Apto G. Valencia, se obtuvo
los siguientes parametros: K= 3. 6464 m = 0.261885, n = 0.53219.
160.000
140.000
120.000
Recomendaciones:
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
0
20
40
Tr=2
60
Tr=5
80
Tr=10
100
Tr=25
120
Tr=50
140
160
180
Tr=100
Ln(P Mx 24h)
mm
mm
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
46
153
45
76.4
63.7
77.4
42.5
70.4
75.3
106
45.2
78.4
74.3
75.2
83.2
82.3
125
70.3
68.2
3.8286
5.0304
3.8067
4.3360
4.1542
4.3490
3.7495
4.2542
4.3215
4.6634
3.8111
4.3618
4.3081
4.3202
4.4212
4.4104
4.8283
4.2528
4.2224
1960
180.7
5.1968
1961
80
4.3820
1962
80
4.3820
1963
1964
1965
71
83
69
4.2627
4.4188
4.2341
1966
63
4.1431
1967
85
4.4427
1968
85
4.4427
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1994
66
65
94
61
135
90
73.4
78.6
73.4
85.1
85.4
61.9
65.8
66.8
108
87.4
78.4
80.4
66.2
58.4
75.2
66.2
37
97.1
64.6
88
4.1897
4.1744
4.5433
4.1109
4.9053
4.4998
4.2959
4.3644
4.2959
4.4438
4.4473
4.1255
4.1866
4.2017
4.6821
4.4705
4.3618
4.3870
4.1927
4.0673
4.3202
4.1927
3.6109
4.5757
4.1682
4.4773
Media (mm):
78.941
4.326
Desviacin (mm):
24.896
0.285
Coef. Asimetra:
1.862
0.4
Observaciones n:
54
Regin
Andina (R1)
Caribe (R2)
Pacfico (R3)
Orinoqua (R4)
d
0.830
0.100
0.200
0.420
Duracin (min)
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
10
25
50
100
275.794
328.242
374.446
445.654
508.386
579.949
184.496
250.491
298.127
340.092
387.965
146.892
167.569
199.436
227.509
259.534
97.557
116.109
132.453
157.641
179.832
205.145
77.112
91.777
104.696
124.606
142.146
162.154
65.262
77.673
88.606
105.456
120.301
137.235
51.585
61.395
70.038
83.357
95.090
108.475
43.658
51.960
59.274
70.547
80.477
91.805
38.358
45.652
52.079
61.982
70.707
80.660
34.509
41.071
46.853
55.763
63.612
72.566
I=
219.582
123.421
Intensidad (mm/hr)
Ao
0.190000
0.2000
0.21628
13.9200 *T
0.58000
t
500
400
300
200
100
0.232638
I=
3.5761 *T
0.53219
t
20
40
60
10
80
100
120
140
160
180
Duracin (min)
2
#REF!
25
50
100
Estacin Apto G. Valencia - Comparacin de resultados obtenidos por cada mtodo (diferencias)
Valores de precipitaciones mximas en 24 horas para varios periodos de retorno
Duracin (min)
5
10
20
30
45
60
90
120
150
180
10
25
50
100
59.61%
56.86%
54.66%
51.57%
49.09%
46.49%
58.25%
55.41%
53.13%
49.94%
47.38%
44.69%
56.84%
53.90%
51.55%
48.25%
45.61%
42.83%
56.00%
53.00%
50.60%
47.24%
44.54%
41.71%
55.14%
52.08%
49.63%
46.20%
43.46%
40.57%
54.51%
51.42%
48.94%
45.46%
42.67%
39.74%
53.62%
50.47%
47.94%
44.39%
41.55%
38.56%
52.98%
49.78%
47.22%
43.62%
40.74%
37.71%
52.48%
49.24%
46.65%
43.02%
40.11%
37.05%
52.06%
48.80%
46.18%
42.52%
39.58%
36.49%
Conclusin: Los resultados obtenidos a partir de la ecuaciones regionalizadas propuestas por Daz - Granados , no son significativos con
respecto a los valores obtenidos mediante la informacin de precipitaciones mximas, esto debido principalmente a la poca
disponibilidad de estaciones para la regin del Pacfico.