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1. Introduction
Stakeholders in the Ghanaian economy have been concerned about what
many consider to be the wide spread between the interest rates that banks
charge on the loans that they grant and the rates that they pay depositors.
The spread in lending and deposit rates is a key variable to investigate
since it borders on the efficiency of banks in playing their intermediation
The authors are grateful to USAID/TIPCEE/CARE for funding and facilitating this study.
Corresponding author: Anthony Q.Q. Aboagye, University of Ghana Business School, P.O. Box
LG 78, Legon, Ghana. Tel: 23324-4252596; Fax: 23321-500024; Email: qaboagye@ug.edu.gh
378
C The Authors. Journal compilation
C African Development Bank 2008. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd,
9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
379
380
0.0800
0.0700
0.0600
Bank 1
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank 4
Bank 5
Bank 6
0.0500
0.0400
0.0300
0.0200
0.0100
0.0000
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
that is easiest to estimate from bank income statements and balance sheets.
This measure has drawbacks, however, as noted by Brock and Rojas-Suarez.
For one thing, it ignores fees and commissions that may increase the cost
of loans to borrowers and reduce interest received by depositors. Second,
by including all assets (implicitly all liabilities), the resultant measure may
deviate from banks marginal costs and revenues.
In this study we shall refer to measure 4 as the net interest margin (NIM).
In addition to the authors we have just cited, further indication that bank
interest rate spreads have been wide in Ghana is obtained by computing the
NIM for Ghanaian banks. Figure 1 depicts the NIM of the six biggest banks
in Ghana, quarterly from the start of 2001 to the end of 2006 (actual figures
are provided in the Appendix). It is clear that but for a few spikes around
the third quarter of 2001, second and fourth quarters of 2004 and the fourth
quarter of 2005, NIM has broadly remained between a range of 0.015 and
0.04 in spite of what has generally been considered an improving business
environment.
With improving macroeconomic environment, economic agents and
managers of the economy expected interest rate spreads to have shown signs
of narrowing. For example, commenting on the spike of Q3 2001, the central
bank (Bank of Ghana, 2001) said Despite the fall in inflation and borrowing
rates, the DMBs [deposit money banks] lending rates increased during the
quarter, from June to September, thus further increasing the spread in interest
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381
rates. Clearly, the central bank was hard pressed to explain what happened.
The same may be said of the other spikes.
Finding it necessary to explain how they arrive at their lending and deposit
rates, Mensah (2005), in a paper for the professional association of bankers in
Ghana (the Association of Bankers), indicated that the following indicators
inform the rates that bankers pay on deposits and charge on loans: (i)
central bank reserve requirements; (ii) earnings on reserves; (iii) central
bank lending rate; (iv) projected turnover on customer account balance; (v)
expected duration of deposits; (vi) average cost of operations; (vii) customer
risk profile; (viii) duration of lending; (ix) level and quality of security and
timeframe for loan realization in case of default; (x) treasury bill rate; and
(xi) macroeconomic conditions. It is our objective in this paper to investigate
the extent to which these and other factors explain net interest margin.
Following this introductory comment we present an overview of the
Ghanaian banking sector. Then we discuss the literature on interest rates
spread which will serve as the framework for our investigations. Next, we
present our methodology, followed by our estimation results. We conclude
by highlighting the policy implications of our study.
382
DMBs to GDP averaged 35 per cent. However, domestic credit to the private
sector has remained at around 10 per cent of GDP only for some time. In
general, 10 per cent is considered too low if the private sector is to help the
economy do better.
Under FINSAP, the Banking Law was promulgated in 1989 to govern
the conduct of banking business in Ghana. Among its many provisions is
the pegging of the capital adequacy ratio of bank equity to bank assets at
6 per cent. This ratio, however, was increased in 2004 to 10 per cent under
the successor law, the Banking Law 2004, and remains the same under the
current law, the Banking (Amendment) Law, 2007. Following FINSAP, the
health of the banking sector appears to have improved. For example, at
the dawn of FINSAP in 1988, 41 per cent of all bank credit was considered
non-performing, but the corresponding average for the period 20012006
was 14 per cent.
The number of banks in the system too has increased steadily (Table 1).
At the end of 2006, 23 deposit money banks were operating in the country as
against about six at the start of the exercise in 1988. However, preliminary
evidence suggests that the Ghanaian banking industry is dominated by a few
banks. Thus, the potential for them to behave as monopolists or oligopolists
at a cost to the economy as a whole exists. The dominance of the six biggest
banks is also illustrated in Table 1, which indicates the proportion of total
bank assets and total bank branches that are owned by the six biggest
banks. The table suggests that the six biggest banks do indeed command
a high proportion of both indicators. The proportions have been falling but
still remain substantial, however. Some observers of the Ghanaian banking
system point to the concentration of assets and branches as the reason for
the large spread between bank lending and bank borrowing rates.
Table 1: Total assets and total branches of six biggest banks as a
percentage of total banking industry assets and branches
Year
Assets of 6
big banks as
a percentage
of total bank
assets
Branches of 6
big banks as
a percentage
of total bank
branches
Number of banks
in industry
Total
branches of
all banks
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
83
85
84
82
77
73
69
65
87
86
84
83
80
73
74
76
14
15
17
17
18
18
19
23
300
304
326
322
329
384
378
350
383
Above are the indications of the state of affairs in the Ghanaian banking
industry and the economy. We now turn to systematic economic analysis for
a better insight of the factors that explain interest rate spreads.
3. Literature Review
First, we summarize the conceptual framework on interest rate spreads that
takes its roots from the seminal work of Ho and Saunders (1981), then follow
with some empirical evidence and finally outline our model.
384
Thus, the spread between the lending and deposit rates is given as
s = rL rD = a + b
Given a banks initial wealth as the difference between its assets and
liabilities, and incorporating the production costs of intermediation, which
are assumed to be functions of its deposits and loans, Maudos and Fernandez
de Guevara (2004) derived the banks end of period wealth as a function of
the interest rate risk and credit risk faced by the bank.
Next, given that banks are maximizers of expected utility, a banks utility
function, U, is approximated by the Taylor expansion around the expected
level of wealth, (W = E[W ]). That is,
E[U (W )] = U (W ) + U (W )E[W W ] + 1/2U (W )E[W W ]2
It is assumed that the banks utility function is continuous, doubly
differentiable with U > 0 and U < 0, to ensure that the bank is risk averse.
Incorporating the cost of producing deposits and credits, random arrival of
deposits and loan requests (both assumed to be random Poisson processes),
and substituting the expression for terminal wealth, the expression for the
optimal spread s is shown to have the following determinants:
385
386
387
28
39
33
23
55
22
50
28
22
30
44
26
42
26
32
4. Methodology
We now specify the short-run response of banks net interest margin to
changes in bank specific variables, industry variables and macroeconomic
variables in Ghana. Quite often, banks are expected to respond quickly
to changes in certain policy variables taking their own situation into
consideration. Results of this study would indicate to policy makers those
variables that do indeed influence interest rate spreads in the short run.
We specify our model as:
NIM it = f (xit , yt , z t , t )
That is, NIM it , the net interest margin of bank i at time t is a function
of bank-specific variables at time t, x; industry characteristics y (including
regulatory environment) at time t; values of macroeconomic variables z at
time t; and t is the error term at time t. This error term is conceived of
as having bank-specific and time-specific components as well as a random
term.
Candidate explanatory variables include:
1. Bank-specific explanatory variables, x
Components of operating costs. As indicated earlier, Lerner (1981)
emphasized the importance of this variable. In a previous section we
discussed the rationale for decomposing it. The variables employed are (i)
staff cost as a ratio of total assets (STAFF), (ii) depreciation and occupancy
costs as a ratio of net fixed assets (CAPITAL), and administrative and
other costs as a ratio of total assets (ADMN). It is expected that NIM
will increase with STAFF and ADMN. On the other hand, if banks are
spending on new technology and passing on the benefits to customers,
NIM will decrease with CAPITAL.
Scale of operation. Large-scale operations may influence NIM by
lowering average costs and enabling the bank to make higher profits
or pass on cost savings to customers in the form of lower margins. If
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388
2.
banks do benefit from scale operations and they in turn pass on cost
savings to their customers, NIM will decrease with the scale of operation.
Three proxies of the scale of operations are considered: total assets (TA),
total deposits (DEPOSITS) and total loans (LOANS).
Extent of risk aversion. We reason that a more risk averse bank will have
more equity in its capital structure and will thus charge wider margins in
order to earn the higher return that equity suppliers demand. Risk aversion
is proxied by the ratio of equity to total assets (RSK_AV).
Credit risk. Typically, a bank will try to compensate for the credit risk
it faces by charging higher risk premiums on its loan rates. This will
translate to higher NIM. We estimate the default risk that a bank faces
as the ratio of the provisions it makes for bad and doubtful debt to gross
loans (CRDT_RSK).
Quality of management. Clearly, the quality of bank management affects
profitability. We gauge the quality of bank management by computing the
ratio of a banks total operating expenses to total revenue (MGMT). The
variable measures operating costs incurred to generate a unit of revenue.
Increases in this variable should have a negative impact on NIM because
an increase in this ratio implies a decrease in efficiency hence a reduction
in net interest margin. Angbanzo (1997) recognized the importance of
this variable.
Industry characteristics
Banking industry structure. The literature notes that wide interest rate
spreads will persist if the industry structure within which banks operate
remains unchanged. In Ghana to date, a few banks dominate the
industry suggesting a non-competitive industry. This was discussed earlier
(Table 1). In the literature, investigations of the market structure of
the banking industry and bank behaviour have involved a number of
instruments. One is the Lerner index. A second indicator of industry
structure is the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Market share is also used
as a third indicator.
The Lerner index is defined as LI = (P MC)/P, where P is the marginal
price set by a bank and MC is the banks marginal cost. The index
defines disparity (mark-up) between price and marginal cost expressed
as a fraction of price, thus measuring the capacity to set prices above
marginal cost. This is referred to as market power. The literature is of the
view that intermediation margins increase with market power.
To compute the LI, we set the average price, P, of a bank as the ratio
of total revenue to total assets. The banks marginal cost, MC, is derived
from estimating a trans-logarithmic total cost function in terms of the
exogenous price of inputs, namely, price of labour, w 1 , price of physical
capital, w 2 , price of deposits, w 3 , price of administrative and other costs,
w 4 . Total assets, TA, are considered as the banks output.
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389
390
Table 3: End of quarter inflation, treasury bill and central bank rates
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Quarter
Inflation
(%)
91-day treasury
bill rate (%)
Central bank
rate (%)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
41.9
36.8
28.3
21.3
16.0
13.7
12.9
15.2
29.9
29.6
26.8
23.6
10.5
11.9
12.6
11.8
16.7
15.7
15.0
14.8
9.9
10.5
10.8
10.5
43.47
46.68
38.80
29.70
23.37
23.42
24.44
24.96
26.91
32.41
24.36
23.16
22.41
21.51
19.42
17.08
17.23
16.50
13.90
11.77
9.80
10.19
11.15
10.70
27.0
27.0
27.0
27.0
25.5
25.5
25.5
25.5
27.5
27.5
26.5
24.5
20.0
19.5
19.5
19.5
19.5
16.5
15.5
15.5
14.5
14.5
14.5
12.5
Source: central bank publications (various issues) and website, www.bog.gov.gh; assessed 31 May 2007.
is that the spread between bank lending and bank deposit rates does not
appear to have fallen to reflect the improving macroeconomic environment.
4.1 Estimation
In our model, we allowed the error term to have bank-specific and timespecific effects. Estimation was by fixed-effects generalized least squares
panel regression on quarterly data for all the 17 banks that existed in 2001
(and through 2006). We specified fixed-effects (individual bank dummies)
because these 17 banks were not sampled randomly. Thus, a random effect
specification cannot be justified. Any inferences made will be in respect of
these 17 banks and may not necessarily apply to any new banks that enter the
system. On the other hand, to reduce loss of degrees of freedom, we dropped
time dummy variables and introduced a time trend to capture the impact of
technological changes as well as effects of omitted trending variables.
Quarterly data for this estimation were extracted from quarterly bank
balance sheets and income statements submitted to the Banking Supervision
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391
Department of the central bank of Ghana. The data spanned the first quarter
of 2001 through the fourth quarter of 2006. Data cleaning was performed in
Microsoft Excel.
Estimation was done on a desktop computer running RATS Version 6. Tests
on residuals suggested existence of first order serial correlation and some
heteroskedasticity. Rather than transform the variables to remove these we
heeded the advice of Dagenais (1994), Mankiw (1995) and others who argue
that such transformation may introduce bias in coefficient estimates. This
concern arises from the possibility of measurement errors in the variables.
RATS allows for estimation of the variance-covariance matrix by a robust
estimator that takes into consideration heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
without transforming the variables. Other basic tests for regression adequacy
were all satisfied.
5. Regression Results
The model was first estimated with bank specific dummies for each bank.
We found that no bank dummy was statistically significant. The test for
collapsing all dummies into a constant was rejected, however. We next
assigned one dummy variable to the 6 big banks, and another to the
11 small banks. Upon re-estimating we found that the coefficients of the
two dummies were again not significant. Estimates of the coefficients of
the explanatory variables in the two regressions were very similar. We report
results for the two-dummy case (one for the big banks, the other for the small
banks).
392
(1)
TA
STAFF/TA
CAPITAL/FA
ADMN/TA
RSK_AV
CRDT_RSK
MGMT
LI
0.004
(3.628)
0.253
(1.763)
0.005
(0.343)
0.905
(3.974)
0.030
(2.348)
0.004
(0.804)
0.002
(0.351)
0.009
(2.433)
HHI_TA
0.009
(2.514)
0.020
(2.099)
0.079
(2.827)
0.001
(3.711)
0.24
393
L_RSV
INFLATION
BoG RATE
TREND
Adjusted R2
D.F.
Significant at 0.10; significant
a Variables are defined as follows:
P
MC
C
TA
TA-squared
CRDT_RSK
STAFF
ADMN
CAPITAL
HH_TA
INFLATION
CREDIT
GDP
NIM
RSK_AV
MGMT
L_RSV
BoG RATE
TREND
LI
(2)
0.003
(3.288)
0.277
(1.996)
0.008
(0.519)
0.908
(4.054)
0.037
(2.753)
0.007
(1.204)
0.013
(2.823)
0.125
(2.397)
0.008
(2.521)
0.016
(1.729)
0.078
(2.749)
0.001
(3.246)
0.24
393
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394
cost of cash on hand. However, a careful analysis of bank data shows that
the minimum primary required reserve ratio remained at 9 per cent for the
entire period of this study. On the other hand, the actual ratio of cash and
near cash items to total assets exceeded 9 per cent, but it has been falling
towards 9 per cent as treasury bill rates and central bank lending rates have
fallen.
To illustrate, the average actual primary reserve ratio of all banks in 2001
(January to September) was 12.31 per cent, whereas in 2006 (January to
September) the average was 9.63 per cent. Our point is that as treasury bill
rates have fallen (Table 3), banks have reduced the amount of cash and near
cash items that they hold. It would appear that falling interest rates has made
banks sit up to manage their cash better so as to possibly maintain a certain
level of revenue. Treasury bills have hitherto been an extremely popular
investment instrument with Ghanaian banks. Note that NIM, as used here,
includes interest income from investments in securities as well.
It is counter-intuitive, however, for banks to appear to be managing their
cash better as treasury bill rates fall. Falling treasury bill rates means that the
opportunity cost of idle cash has also been falling. However, the regression
results may be revealing bank behaviour in respect of liquidity management
as the economy improves. Banks seem to be holding less excess reserves
(for liquidity) than they used to, now being more confident in the economy.
Also, the falling borrowing rate from the central bank means if they have to
borrow from the central bank it will cost them less, and so they are willing
to take more chances than they used to.
3. Macroeconomic variables
Changes in the central bank lending rate have a strong negative impact on
NIM (p-value less than 0.01 and similar magnitude in both equations). That
is, as the central bank lending rate falls bank margins increase. Given that
the central bank lending rate has generally fallen (see Table 3), the evidence
disputes the position that a lower central bank lending rate will lower bank
margins. A careful analysis of the relationship between central bank lending
rates and bank base rates (in principle, rates available to the most credit
worthy borrowers) reveals that banks have not passed on the full amount of
decreases in the central bank lending rate to borrowers.
To illustrate, when the central bank lending rate was 15.5 per cent in 2005
(Q3 and Q4), the average base rate of all the banks was 22.114 per cent; when
the central bank lending rate dropped by one percentage point to 14.5 per
cent in 2006 (Q1, Q2 and Q3) the average base rate fell to 21.143 per cent,
less than one percentage point; when the central bank lending rate dropped
further to 12.5 per cent in Q4 of 2006 (a two percentage drop), the average
base rate only dropped to 19.358 per cent, a drop of less than two percentage
points.
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395
Impact on NIM
(1)
TA
ADMN/TA
RSK_AV
INFLATION
STAFF/TA
LI
HHI_TA
L_RSV
TREND
BoG RATE
a Elasticities
1.277
0.188
0.092
0.090
0.065
0.033
0.049
0.295
0.401
(2)
1.327
0.099
0.158
0.099
0.099
0.243
0.061
0.409
0.549
are computed only for explanatory variables with a p-value of at most 0.10.
The rate of inflation does have a positive impact on NIM in both equations
with roughly the same magnitude. Its impact is significant at 0.05 level in
Equation (1) and 0.10 in (2). Given that the rate of inflation has generally
fallen over the period covered by this study, our results are consistent with
NIM falling with improvements in the macroeconomic environment.
The impact of time is very small in both equations, negative and significant
(p-value less than 0.001). This suggests that with time, thanks to technology
and other trending effects, NIMs are falling, small though this is.
5.2 Elasticities
We assess the economic significance of the factors that explain NIM by
computing the elasticities of NIM at the sample mean of each explanatory
variable that is significant at no more than the 0.10 level, holding others
constant. Table 5 reports the elasticities of NIM for a 1 per cent change in
the variables in Equation (1) the specification involving the Lerner index
and Equation (2) the specification involving the Herfindahl-Hirschman
index.
From Table 5, the TA variable is the factor with the most impact on NIM
in both equations. A 1 per cent increase in TA leads to about 1.3 per cent
increase in NIM in each equation. (Note that TA is in natural logarithms
of millions of current cedis). Administrative and other expenses are next
in both equations but with an impact on NIM of about 0.2 per cent in
Equation (1) and 0.3 per cent in Equation (2) for every 1 per cent increase.
This is followed in Equation (1) by RSK_AV with an impact of 0.1 per cent
C The Authors. Journal compilation
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396
on NIM for a 1 per cent increase; and INFLATION also with an impact of
0.1 per cent. For Equation (2) it is HHI_TA that has the third biggest impact
of 0.2 per cent for every 1 per cent increase followed by RSK_AV also with
an impact of 0.2 per cent.
In Equation (1), STAFF has the fifth largest impact of 0.1 per cent, whereas
in Equation (2), STAFF and INFLATION are both in fifth place, also with
an impact of 0.1 per cent. LI is the least significant variable with positive
impact on NIM in Equation (1).
The variables whose increases reduce NIM are L_RSV, TREND
and BoG RATE in that order in both equations. That is, a
1 per cent increase in L_RSV results in a 0.1 per cent decrease in NIM
in both equations; a 1 per cent increase in TREND leads to a 0.3 per cent
decrease in NIM in Equation (1) and a 0.4 per cent decrease in NIM in
Equation (2). In both equations, BoG RATE has the most negative impact
on NIM. A 1 per cent increase in this variable reduces NIM by 0.4 per cent
in Equation (1) and 0.6 per cent in specification (2).
397
References
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C The Authors. Journal compilation
C African Development Bank 2008
398
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C The Authors. Journal compilation
C African Development Bank 2008
399
Appendix
Table A1: Net interest margin for the six biggest banks (Interest Income
Interest Expense)/Total Assets
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Quarter
Bank 1
Bank 2
Bank 3
Bank 4
Bank 5
Bank 6
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0286
0.0464
0.0469
0.0331
0.0261
0.0382
0.0269
0.0293
0.0289
0.0284
0.0332
0.0330
0.0350
0.0604
0.0276
0.0430
0.0259
0.0268
0.0265
0.0687
0.0304
0.0304
0.0282
0.0343
0.0205
0.0251
0.0570
0.0332
0.0303
0.0286
0.0247
0.0244
0.0217
0.0312
0.0275
0.0194
0.0192
0.0409
0.0205
0.0391
0.0232
0.0240
0.0252
0.0245
0.0241
0.0234
0.0238
0.0194
0.0442
0.0388
0.0803
0.0451
0.0319
0.0242
0.0314
0.0297
0.0331
0.0452
0.0295
0.0218
0.0285
0.0639
0.0279
0.0479
0.0259
0.0241
0.0251
0.0152
0.0248
0.0249
0.0233
0.0239
0.0335
0.0364
0.0625
0.0356
0.0238
0.0274
0.0272
0.0278
0.0281
0.0377
0.0348
0.0285
0.0300
0.0614
0.0298
0.0450
0.0211
0.0261
0.0273
0.0260
0.0265
0.0257
0.0256
0.0239
0.0195
0.0199
0.0422
0.0254
0.0140
0.0135
0.0152
0.0166
0.0174
0.0179
0.0202
0.0270
0.0159
0.0328
0.0197
0.0336
0.0195
0.0195
0.0183
0.0339
0.0189
0.0194
0.0230
0.0216
0.0259
0.0445
0.0416
0.0337
0.0318
0.0082
0.0220
0.0209
0.0216
0.0204
0.0224
0.0199
0.0187
0.0376
0.0230
0.0397
0.0171
0.0162
0.0169
0.0208
0.0159
0.0184
0.0212
0.0220
C The Authors. Journal compilation
C African Development Bank 2008