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LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences

DISC203ProbabilityandStatistics
FallSemester2015

Instructor
RoomNo.
OfficeHours
Email
Telephone
Secretary
TAOfficeHours
CourseURL(ifany)

MuhammadAsim
439SDSBBuilding
Mondays&Wednesdays:2:00p.m. 4:00p.m.
Muhammad.Asim@lums.edu.pk
04235605232
AbdulBasit
TBA
Suraj.lums.edu.pk

COURSEBASICS
CreditHours
Lecture(s)
Recitation/Lab(perweek)
Tutorial(perweek)

3
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek
NbrofLec(s)PerWeek

Duration
Duration
Duration

75minutes

COURSEDISTRIBUTION
Core
Elective
OpenforStudentCategory
CloseforStudentCategory

Yes

Sophomore

COURSEDESCRIPTION

Thiscourseisdesignedtoprovidestudentsmajoringinmanagementandfinancewithanelementaryintroductiontoprobability
and statistics with applications. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are covered. We first review techniques for organizing
and presenting the raw data and elementary probability theory. Next, we discuss various techniques to make inferences. Along
withprobabilitytheory,samplingdistributionandcentrallimittheoremshallbediscussed.Theideaofcentrallimittheoremwill
naturallyleadtowardstheconfidenceintervalsandhypothesistestsformeanandproportion.Wefollowthisdiscussionwithsingle
andmultipleregressionanalysis,modelbuilding,designofexperimentsandcategoricaldataanalysis.Thecoursealsoaimstogivea
handson experience with using a statistical package, Stata, alongside Microsoft Excel for carrying out data analysis. The main
objectiveofthecourseistoprovidestudentswiththefoundationsofstatisticalinferencemostlyusedinbusinessandeconomics.

COURSEPREREQUISITE(S)

CalculusI(Math101)

COURSELEARNINGOBJECTIVES(CLO)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Toenablestudentstosolveproblemsusingbasicconceptsofprobability
Tointroducestudentstothetheoryofinferentialstatistics
To enable students to analyze data by identifying appropriate statistical techniques, computing statistics and
interpretingresults
ToenablestudentstouseExcelandStataforstatisticalanalysisofdata
Toenablestudentstopresentanddefendtheirempiricalanalysiseffectively

LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
LEARNINGOUTCOMES(LO)

1.
2.
3.
4.

5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Bytheendofthecourse,studentsshouldbeableto:
summarizethedatainausefulandinformativemanner
usethebasicconceptsofprobabilityandrandomvariables
explaintheconceptofthesamplingdistributionofastatic,andinparticulardescribethebehaviorofthesample
mean
describe the foundations of classical inference involving confidence intervals and hypothesis testing and apply
inferentialmethods
applymodelingtechniquesinsimpleandmultiplelinearregressionanalysis
discusscriticalelementsinthedesignofasamplingexperimentandanalyzedesignedexperimentsusinganalysisof
variance
analyzecountdatawithtwoormorecategories
useExcelandStataforstatisticalanalysisofdata
defendtheirempiricalanalysiseffectively,bothinoralandwrittenforms

UNDERGRADUATEPROGRAMLEARNINGGOALS&OBJECTIVES

GeneralLearningGoals&Objectives
Goal1EffectiveWrittenandOralCommunication
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateeffectivewritingandoralcommunicationskills
Goal2EthicalUnderstandingandReasoning
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoidentifyandaddressethicalissuesinanorganizational
context.
Goal3AnalyticalThinkingandProblemSolvingSkills
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoidentifykeyproblemsandgenerateviablesolutions.
Goal4ApplicationofInformationTechnology
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletousecurrenttechnologiesinbusinessandmanagement
context.
Goal5TeamworkinDiverseandMulticulturalEnvironments
Objective:Studentswilldemonstratethattheyareabletoworkeffectivelyindiverseenvironments.
Goal6UnderstandingOrganizationalEcosystems
Objective:StudentswilldemonstratethattheyhaveanunderstandingofEconomic,Political,Regulatory,Legal,
Technological,andSocialenvironmentoforganizations.

MajorSpecificLearningGoals&Objectives
Goal7(a)DisciplineSpecificKnowledgeandUnderstanding
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateknowledgeofkeybusinessdisciplinesandhowtheyinteractincluding
applicationtorealworldsituations(Includingsubjectknowledge).
Goal7(b)Understandingthesciencebehindthedecisionmakingprocess(forMGSMajors)
Objective:Studentswilldemonstrateabilitytoanalyzeabusinessproblem,designandapplyappropriate
decisionsupporttools,interpretresultsandmakemeaningfulrecommendationstosupportthedecisionmaker

LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
Indicatebelowhowthecourselearningobjectivesspecificallyrelatetoanyprogramlearninggoalsandobjectives.

PROGRAMLEARNINGGOALSAND
OBJECTIVES

COURSELEARNINGOBJECTIVES

COURSEASSESSMENTITEM

Goal1EffectiveWrittenandOral
Communication

Studentsgetanumberofopportunitiesto
demonstratetheirabilitytocommunicate
effectively(CLO#5)
Studentsdemonstrateanhonestreporting
anduseofdata(CLO#5)
Thisisanimportantobjectiveofthe
course(CLO#1,3,5)
StudentslearntouseStataandExcelfor
dataanalysis(CLO#4)
Studentsworkingroupsontheproject

Project,CPandExams

NA

NA

Comprehensivecoverageoftopicsin
elementaryprobabilityandstatistics(CLO
#15&LO#19)
Studentsapplyappropriatestatistical
methodstoanswerdatabaseddecision
problems
(CLO#15)

Assignments,Quizzes,CP,Projectand
Exams

Goal2EthicalUnderstandingand
Reasoning
Goal3AnalyticalThinkingandProblem
SolvingSkills
Goal4ApplicationofInformation
Technology
Goal5TeamworkinDiverseand
MulticulturalEnvironments
Goal6UnderstandingOrganizational
Ecosystems
Goal7(a)DisciplineSpecificKnowledge
andUnderstanding
Goal7(b)Understandingthescience
behindthedecisionmakingprocess

Project
Quizzes,Assignments,CP,Projectand
Exams
AssignmentsandProject
Project

Assignments,Quizzes,CP,Projectand
Exams

GRADINGBREAKUPANDPOLICY

Assignment(s):7.5%(2individualassignments)
HomeWork:(Forpractice,notgraded)
Quiz(s):15%(7announcedquizzes;best5willbecounted)
ClassParticipation:3%
Attendance:7%
MidtermExamination:25%
Project:7.5%(tobecompletedinagroupofupto7students)
FinalExamination:35%

EXAMINATIONDETAIL

Midterm
Exam

FinalExam

Yes/No:Yes
CombineSeparate:Combine
Duration:100minutes
PreferredDate:
ExamSpecifications:closedbook,closednotes,helpsheetallowed(A4size,singlesided,handwritten),calculators
allowed

Yes/No:Yes
CombineSeparate:Combine
Duration:100minutes
ExamSpecifications:closedbook,closednotes,helpsheetallowed(A4size,twosided,handwritten),calculators
allowed

LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences
COURSEOVERVIEW
LECTURE

2&3

5&6

7,8,9&10

TOPICS
Statistics,DataandStatisticalThinking
TheScienceofStatistics;TypesofStatistical
ApplicationsinBusiness;FundamentalElements
ofStatistics;TypesofData
MethodsofDescribingSetsofData
GraphicalMethods;SummationNotation;
CentralTendency;Variability;RelativeStanding;
StandardDeviation;DistortingtheTruthwith
DescriptiveTechniques

RECOMMENDED
READINGS
Chapter1

Understandthenatureand
scopeofStatistics

Chapter2

Chooseasuitablewayof
presentingrawStatisticalData
Discusstheadvantagesand
disadvantagesofdifferent
waysofrepresentingdata
Calculateandinterpret
measuresofcentraltendency
andvariability
DescribedatausingExcel&
Stata
Describethesamplespacefor
certainrandomexperiments
Computeprobabilities
Understandthenotionof
RandomSampling

LabSession
Probability
Events,SampleSpacesandProbability;
UnionsandIntersections;ComplementaryEvents;
TheAdditiveRuleandMutuallyExclusiveEvents;
ConditionalProbability;TheMultiplicativeRule
andIndependentEvents;RandomSampling;
BayesRule
RandomVariablesandProbabilityDistributions
TwoTypesofRandomVariables:
DiscreteRandomVariables:Probability
DistributionsforDiscreteRandomVariables;
ExpectedValuesofDiscreteRandomVariables;
TheBinomialRandomVariable;ThePoisson
RandomVariable
ContinuousRandomVariables:Probability
DistributionsforContinuousRandomVariables;
TheUniformDistribution;TheNormal
Distribution;ApproximatingaBinomial
DistributionwithaNormalDistribution;The
ExponentialDistribution
SamplingDistributions:TheConceptofSampling
Distributions;PropertiesofSampling
Distributions:UnbiasednessandMinimum
Variance;TheSamplingDistributionoftheSample
Mean

SESSIONOBJECTIVES

Chapter3

Chapter4

Chapter5

Chapter6

Findprobabilitiesfor
distributionsoverdiscretesets
Calculatethemeanand
varianceofadiscreterandom
variable
Recognizecaseswhere
BinomialDistributioncouldbe
anappropriatemodel;
computeprobabilitiesfora
BinomialDistributionand
approximateBinomial
probabilitiesusingaNormal
Distribution;
Findprobabilitiesfor
continuousdistributions
Usethekeypropertiesofthe
NormalDistributions
Recognizecaseswhere
Poisson,Uniformand
ExponentialDistributions
couldbeappropriateand
computecorresponding
probabilities
Describepropertiesofthe
samplingdistributionofsample
mean
UnderstandandapplyCentral

LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences

11,12&13

14

15&16

17&18

InferenceBasedonaSingleSample:
EstimationwithConfidenceIntervals
LargeSampleConfidenceintervalforaPopulation
Mean;SmallSampleConfidenceIntervalfora
PopulationMean;LargeSampleConfidence
IntervalforaPopulationProportion;Determining
thesamplesize;SampleSurveyDesigns
TestsofHypothesis
TheElementsofaTestofHypothesis;Large
SampleTestofHypothesisAboutaPopulation
Mean;SmallSampleTestofHypothesisAbouta
PopulationMean;LargeSampleTestof
HypothesisAboutaPopulationProportion;
ObservedSignificanceLevels:pvalues
MidtermExam
InferenceBasedonTwoSamples
ComparingTwoPopulationMeans:
IndependentSampling;ComparingTwo
PopulationMeans:PairedDifferenceExperiments;
ComparingTwoPopulationProportions:
IndependentSampling;DeterminingtheSample
Size;ComparingTwoPopulationVariances:
IndependentSampling
SimpleLinearRegression
ProbabilisticModels;FittingtheModel:The
LeastSquaresApproach;ModelAssumptions;
AssessingtheUtilityoftheModel:Making
InferenceabouttheSlope;TheCoefficientsof
CorrelationandDetermination;UsingtheModel
forEstimationandPrediction

Chapter7

Chapter8

Chapter9

ApplyClassicalHypothesis
Testingtocomparetwo
populationsanddraw
inference

Chapter10

Definetheconceptofleast
squaresestimationinlinear
regression
Explainwhycorrelationneed
notnecessarilyimplycausation
Evaluatethefitofalinear
model
Conductinferencefortheslope
andinterceptparameters
Fitalinearregressionmodel
usingExcel&Stata,dopost
estimationanalysisandexplain
computeroutput
DefinetheconceptofLeast
SquaresRegressioninMultiple
Regression
TesttheutilityofaMultiple
RegressionModelanduseit
forestimationandprediction
Interprettheresultsofa
MultipleRegressionModeland
drawinference
Understandhowtoselecta
modelthatisappropriatefor
givendata

LabSession
19

20&21

22&23

MultipleRegressionandModelBuilding

MultipleRegression
MultipleRegression:TheModelandthe
Procedure;TheLeastSquaresApproach;Model
assumptions;InferenceAbouttheSlope
Parameters;CheckingtheUsefulnessofthe
Model:R2andtheAnalysisofVarianceFTest;
UsingtheModelforEstimationandPrediction,
ResidualAnalysis:CheckingtheRegression
Assumptions

ModelBuilding
TheTwoTypesofIndependentVariables:

LimitTheorem
Calculateandinterpret
ConfidenceIntervalsand
ConfidenceLevels
RememberstepsinClassical
Hypothesistesting
DescribeTypeIandTypeII
Errors
ConductTestsofHypothesis
accordingtoagivensituation
andinterprettheresults.

Chapter11

Chapter12

LahoreUniversityofManagementSciences

24

25&26

27

28

QuantitativeandQualitative;Modelswitha
SingleQuantitativeIndependentVariable;Models
withTwoorMoreQuantitativeIndependent
Variables;TestingPortionsofaModel;Models
withOneQualitativeIndependentVariable;
ComparingtheSlopesofTwoorMoreLines;
ComparingTwoorMoreResponseCurves;
StepwiseRegression
LabSession
DesignofExperiments
ElementsofaDesignedExperiment;The
CompletelyRandomizedDesign:SingleFactor;
MultipleComparisonsofMeans;Factorial
Experiments
CategoricalDataAnalysis:TheChiSquareTest
andtheAnalysisofContingencyTables
TheMultinomialDistribution;Contingency
Tables;AWordofCautionAboutChiSquareTests
Review

Chapter15

Chapter17

UseExcelandStatafor
MultipleRegressionAnalysis
Discussthecriticalelementsin
thedesignofasampling
experiment
Analyzedesignedexperiments

UseMultinomialDistribution
ConstructContingencyTables
ConductChiSquaredTest

TEXTBOOK(S)/SUPPLEMENTARYREADINGS
RequiredTexts:

JamesMcClave,P.GeorgeBenson,TerrySincich.StatisitcsforBusinessandEconomics.7thEdition.PrenticeHall,NJ.1998.(MBC)
Datasetsat:
http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/esm/statistics_datasets/stats_datasets.html#mcclave3

OnlineresourcestohelpyoulearnStata:
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/